25
Aug

Wednesday – Oil Inventory Preview Plus Enercom Plus More

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Market Sentiment Watch: Another slow summer day, another broad market thumping at the hands of more pathetic economic data. In energy land the interesting comments kept rolling out of Enercom (check out the HK comment in the commodity section) and we have a pretty good day of trading in a redder than not market backdrop. The trades were quicker than I like but given this week's expected string of bummer economic data I feel like watch and throw is better than watch and hope to grow. If it works quickly this week I will pluck it.

BP Spill Watch:

  • Yesterday, HAL's cement engineer on the Macondo job basically said BP ignored his suggestions for a safer cement job, refusing to add as many centralizers as his design called for.
  • CAM and their BOP will be the center of attention at today's Coast with questions centering on why the shear rams didn't close.

Ecodata Watch:

  • Durable goods orders  came in at 2.2% vs a forecast of  2.7%,
  • We get new home sales at 10 am EST (F = 339K)

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch: ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

  • $5,200
  • 100-% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades:  None

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $4,000
  • 71% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • HAL – Added (15) September $28 calls for $1.06 with the stock at $27.90. HAL has not really moved following the quarterly results which included improved sentiment for their prospects going forward. A rising rig count in the States should help prop the stock if the market catches a bounce.
    • HAL – Sold the 15 HAL $28 September calls taken this morning for $1.51, up 42%.
    • MMR - Added (10) MMR $11 calls for $1.07 with the stock at $11.55. Liked what I heard on the Enercom presentation but also have been meaning to start increasing exposure to the offshore Shelf names again.
    • MMR - Sold the (10) MMR $11 calls with the stock at $12 for $1.38, up 28%. It still feels like a renters market.

Commodity Watch: Crude oil fell $1.47 to close at $71.63 yesterday, in weak equity market, economic malaise driven trading. After the close, the API released a mixed bag of report (see below). Their figure for Cushing stocks showed a marked decline which would help stall the recent 14 session, 12% slide in crude. However, their gasoline build left much to be desired. My sense is that we will see a draw on crude due to the continuation of a late season bounce in gasoline demand. If not, look for crude to test $70 today. This morning crude is trading slightly lower following the durable goods numbers.

Natural gas eased another $0.03 to close the day at $4.04 yesterday in it's now 16 day trip from $5 to the $4 mark. This morning gas is trading off two pennies.

  • Gas Mania Watch: HK plans to cut rigs in the Haynesville:

    • 1 to 2 this year
    • 1/3 of their fleet in 2011
    • and 1/2 by 2012 even if prices are back up to as much as $6.
    • Floyd Wilson called it the common sense thing to do and hopes that his peers work toward the same end.
  • Tropics Watch:
    • Hurricane Danille is spinning harmlessly in the Atlantic with no chance of moving towards the Gulf.
    • A system west of Africa has a 100% chance of development now and should become Earl.
    • Lastly, something looks to be spinning up in the Western Gulf of Mexico.
    • Bastardi is calling for a string of storms in the next 2 weeks.
    • See the links on the Weather Tab for further updates.

Early Read On Natural Gas Storage: Street is looking for a 38 BCF injection for tomorrow’s report.

  • Last Week: 27 Bcf Injection (It was very hot)
  • Last Year: 53 Bcf Injection (It was not as hot)
  • 5 Year Average: 66 Bcf Injection
  • 10 year Hi:100 Bcf Injection
  • 10 year Low: 38 Bcf Injection

Oil Inventory Preview 

API Watch:

  • Crude: DOWN 1.85 mm barrels
  • Gasoline: UP 0.692 mm barrels - would not be good for gasoline and crude pricing if EIA shows same.
  • Distillates: UP 1.9 mm barrels

Stuff We Care About Today

Enercom Wrap From Tuesday ...

UPL - Smooth Operator

  • Reserve Potential:
    • 60 Tcfe from the tight gas sands of the Pinedale Anticline
    • 8 Tcf from their PA Marcellus acreage
    • Potential reserves engineered by Netherland Sewell - arguable the most respected Reserve Engineers outside of Ryder Scott.
    • Note that current (2009) proved reserves are 3.91 Tcfe
  • Rapid growth, all organic, ---% natural gas
  • They basically don't do follow on offering
  • Operating costs are on the cheap end of the peer group at $2.61 / Mcfe, which includes gathering and transportation costs, vs the mean for the peer group of $5.41 / Mcfe.
  • Sees 50+% IRR at $5 gas which is why they have hedged.

Side by Side of HK, RRC, SWN, UPL - I'll find a place in the links at upper left to stick this table and last week's Bakken players table for future reference

... Enercom Today

Link to the presentations

  • BPZ - 10:25 am EST
  • CPE - 11:15
  • MHR  - 11:40
  • ATPG - 12:30 PM
  • ECA - 2:20
  • GST - 3:55 - trade worthy news possible
  • END - 4:45
  • MCF - 5:10 - Interested to hear the CEO's latest comments regarding the future of offshore drilling

Other Stuff

  • HK Insider buying
  • NOG director selling

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • Nada

105 Responses to “Wednesday – Oil Inventory Preview Plus Enercom Plus More”

  1. 1
    elijahwc Says:

    Pritchard comment on VQ

    VQ: Monterey is the Story:  Company currently has 158,000 net acres in the Monterey and continues to plan to be at 200,000 by YE 2010 and 350,000 by YE 2011. Should have 3-4 horizontal Monterey wells online by YE 2010. First horizontal has reached TD and could be online in ~3 weeks. Spudding a horizontal in Project C area next week, which looks to be the best of the 3 project areas the company has provided details on so far (out of 32 fields). Second horizontal rig expected to arrive in September. First half of joint 3D seismic shoot with OXY ($74.02-NR) is complete, and data should be processed by year end. While Sac Basin economics are good mainly due to premium prcing (20-25% IRR at $3.50 NYMEX), company will slow activity in 2011 from ~100 wells, 250 recompletions, and 10 fracs in 2010 due to low gas prices and put the money into the Monterey.

  2. 2
    elduque Says:

    Good morning Z –
    I am now back out of the woods. Although I see the market isn't. I should have sold everything before I left. 
    I wonder how long before mr. natural gas market anticipates what will be happening next year re the drop of in drilling. Probably won't be until it actually happens. So we have another 9 months to wait before we will see a significant difference in the price.
    I will now spend the next few hours reading the last 8 days of  memos.
     
     
     
     
     

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    We're still in summer slow mode so 1 grip and 1 question.

    Gripe. Feinberg now asking for a waiver not to sue BP if you get funds from the $20 B pool. This is the same thing people went ballistic on BP over in the beginning when they were making payments.

    Question. When do the health insurance exchanges for small businesses open up? Howard Dean on CNBC saying the Obama Healthcare bill will be a boon to small business and since I happen to run one and have yet to see this boon …

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Eli – thanks, that's what they said at Enercom and why I am interested at the moment.

    Eld- Generally if you have a mid year expected plunge in rigs, gas would discount that (move higher) 3 to 6 months prior to the move. Given the prolific, flush nature of shale production, it may take longer this time as we saw little reaction to a plunging rig count in the recent cycle. I think we go close to $3.50 in the coming shoulder season so my sense of where the low is is that we are closer than not to it already. Wildcard is storms and it is about to get very stormy. The gassy names have already been hammered as you know and feel now as if they have one last capitulatory move left in them. I would like to see all of them say what HK said yesterday and go from 25 or 35% growth to 15 or 20% growth.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Front and Center Watch

    HAL, CAM – testimony on CPSAN2 begins shortly.

    WLL – down too much after good well results and continued strong operations last several days.

    EOG – down too much

    ECT – that Marcellus yield name slipping quietly higher, don’t own it, may never own it, but find it interesting and may take a piece and not worry about understanding all of the nuances there. For now, I have LINE and WHX for yield and am comfortable with both.

    GST – to present late day at Enercom, could be interesting, I know Reef and BOP are fans there.

    MCF – a must listen presentation later today at Enercom. Shifting more capital budget onshore, views on the future of offshore drilling with increased liability, possibly a special dividend or quicker buyback in the works.

    CPE and ATPG – looking for a glimmer of hope here.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Eli – please check your email.

  7. 7
    Nicky Says:

    Good morning. They need to step up and buy the morning gap down. 1044 is support. Target may be 1040. If that goes then it could get nasty ie 1020 and then 1000.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Thanks much Nicky, oil doing the same chacha with the S&P at the moment, big fall in a short time. Should be about done but today’s data could really push it lower if they got the gasoline number wrong.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    MMR getting good follow on action to yesterday’s move. EXXI not playing so far but probably should if MMR can sustain.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    On the front and center watch, I plan to do that daily short after the post is up. No action on any of it prior to home sales at 10 am EST.

    CSPAN2 testimony again focused on cement job and centralizers early. Nothing really conclusive.

    MMR strongest name of the day so far.

    SSN with a huge spread on no volume at the open.

    MCF off on no volume.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    OK, taking another shot at MMR with a two staged entry, 1 shot before the numbers today, the other if they are worse than expected and tank the market.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – MMR

    A little riskier trade, also to be quick.

    MMR – Added (25) of the September $14 calls for $0.46 with the stock at $13.05. Plan to add more if the economic data due out at 10 am EST brings the market it. Feedback from Enercom presentation continues to be positive in the wake of their presentation yesterday.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    NG at $3.96. Oil steady 45 minutes before the inventory numbers.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    CNBC – AMLP – Aleurian MLP ETF begins trading today.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    If you missed the MMR call yesterday:

    http://www.vcall.com/console/ConsoleFrameset.asp?ID=161160&brand=vcall&ClickType=listen&playerID=1&urlID=159098&sessionID=6D5160F13E18481F&email=&tck=MMR

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    New home sales of 276 K vs 339 K.

  17. 17
    RMD Says:

    14 there already is an Aleurian MLP + AMJ (which I’m short).

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    re 17, right, just a different mix, I thought the other one had seen massive yield seeking inflows.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – MMR

    Added (50) MMR $15 calls for $0.18 with the stock at $12.65 in the wake of weak economic data. A bit higher risk than the last trade or yesterday’s but lots of leverage to a potential move higher in the name.

  20. 20
    elijahwc Says:

    Contra Watch – Insider buys continue to show up at SD

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Thanks Eli

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    Got an email re what’s your deal with MMR

    – from my notes yesterday

    Blackbeard East. As of yesterday they had just crossed the salt weld at about 21,000 feet. They immediately were into 3 hydrocarbon bearing zones in the Miocene down to , will see 10,000 feet of section down to 29,500′ in this well. If 25% sand, that’s 2,500′ of sand. This is 10,000 feet shallower than seen at Blackbeard east so lower heat, pressure than in that wellbore.

  23. 23
    elduque Says:

    re 20- where do you go to find out?

    thank you.

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Crude slightly green pre inventories in 10 minutes.

    NG at $3.90, I think Epperson on CNBC mentioning hurricane season supposed to have less of an impact.

    Eld – those buys come across as form 4 filings at SEC.gov or on the tape.

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    EOG down another $2.50 at $86. Redonculous move. JB, where do you see support?

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    BPZ call started.

  27. 27
    Dman Says:

    Catching falling knife dept: just took some EOG calls. Maybe stock would have been a better idea…

  28. 28
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #25 EOG has weekly 200 period SMA support at $84.38…

  29. 29
    Jerome Blank Says:

    EOG weekly chart added…

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    EIA Oil Inventories:

    Crude $71.50 per #s

    Crude: UP 4.1 mm barrels
    Gasoline: UP 2.3 mm barrels
    Distillates: UP 1.8 mm barrels

  31. 31
    Popeye Says:

    Ouch

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    More EIA

    Gasoline demand of 9.375 mm bpd, off slightly from last week, strong but should be stronger for another week or so.

    Distillate demand down slightly.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    More EIA

    Imports at 9.849 mm bopd, up slightly, part of the reason for the big crude build

    Cushing actually fell, the same 0.7 mm barrels to 36.3 mm that API said last night. Weird. Welcome but weird.

  34. 34
    elijahwc Says:

    eld “23 As Z says its a Form 4 but to make it easy here is what I see on my news feed for SD:

    All News Services , SD-US »

    08/24/10 EDT
    DJ 17:02 DJ VP CHANG Buys 10,000 Of SANDRIDGE ENERGY INC >SD

    08/20/10 EDT
    FY 8:50 SandRidge Energy initiated with an Add at Capital One Southcoast
    FY 5:31 Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money”

    08/19/10 EDT
    DJ 16:47 DJ VP WINTON Buys 5,000 Of SANDRIDGE ENERGY INC >SD
    DJ 9:12 *DJ SandRidge Energy Cut To Underweight From Equalweight By Morgan Stanley >SD
    FY 6:33 SandRidge Energy downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley

    08/17/10 EDT
    DJ 16:20 DJ Dir JORDAN Buys 50,000 Of SANDRIDGE ENERGY INC >SD

    08/12/10 EDT
    DJ 17:01 DJ Dir JORDAN Buys 75,000 Of SANDRIDGE ENERGY INC >SD
    DJ 16:53 DJ Dir GILLILAND Buys 100,000 Of SANDRIDGE ENERGY INC >SD

    08/10/10 EDT
    FY 6:53 SandRidge Energy downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
    FY 5:12 Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money”
    08/06/10 EDT

    08/04/10 EDT
    FY 16:38 SandRidge Energy reports Q2 EPS 20c vs. consensus of 12c
    DJ 16:15 PRESS RELEASE: SandRidge Energy, Inc. Reports -6-
    DJ 16:15 PRESS RELEASE: SandRidge Energy, Inc. Reports -5-
    DJ 16:15 PRESS RELEASE: SandRidge Energy, Inc. Reports -4-
    DJ 16:15 PRESS RELEASE: SandRidge Energy, Inc. Reports -3-
    DJ 16:15 PRESS RELEASE: SandRidge Energy, Inc. Reports -2-
    DJ 16:15 PRESS RELEASE: SandRidge Energy, Inc. Reports Financial and Operational Results for Second Quarter and First Six Months of 2010
    DJ 16:06 DJ SD 2Q Earnings Alert: Thomson Reuters 12c
    PRN 16:05 SandRidge Energy, Inc. Reports Financial and Operational Results for Second Quarter and First Six Months of 2010
    DJ 16:05 *DJ SandRidge Energy 2Q Rev $182.4M >SD

  35. 35
    Jerome Blank Says:

    SSN holding up well…

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    More EIA

    Bigger reason for the crude build is refining utilization finally falling off. Refiners have been making too much product due to elevated margins and have now produced inventories into a position that will hurt them for at least the next 6 months.

    Net production of gasoline and distillates should drop pretty hard next week but this week showed a last big surge of gas production which ties to last week’s high, end of season utilization, making all of today’s numbers ugly.

    Crude now 70.91.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    re 35, yeah, looking at the volume I’d say it is simply ignored today.

  38. 38
    VTZ Says:

    Ben! Fire up the helicopter!

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    V – Cramer said “No rally until Obama steps up”. Then he talked about what the president could do and it was all pretty much rah-rah. Frankly, there is only so much govt. can do and it seems we just like to play kick the can down the road on housing and jobs.

  40. 40
    VTZ Says:

    Steps up and does what? Extend the Bush tax cuts? That’s not going to do much in the short term other than keep deficits high.

    People just need to accept that there hasn’t been a broad recovery in anything except for currency related export stories and fake marks on bank assets.

    Bennnnnnn! (Read like Kaaaaaaahhhn!)

  41. 41
    elijahwc Says:

    UPL Consensus C/F Specultion from thomson: Hope this formats correctly

    Period Period End # Ests Mean High Low SD

    ANN 12/2010 23 5.03 5.59 4.38 5.02 0.27

    ANN 12/2011 22 6.75 7.66 5.68 6.71 0.45

    ANN 12/2012 6 8.51 9.36 7.75 8.32 0.73

    ANN 12/2013 3 10.70 10.85 10.53 10.72 0.16

    ANN 12/2014 3 12.40 13.20 11.41 12.60 0.91

    QTR 09/2010 17 1.26 1.42 1.14 1.26 0.07

    QTR 12/2010 17 1.40 1.66 1.18 1.40 0.13

    QTR 03/2011 11 1.61 1.87 1.48 1.58 0.12

    QTR 06/2011 11 1.63 1.86 1.50

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    How do you get a 4.1 mm barrel crude build when the market expects a flat number?

    Inputs to refineries down 348Kpd = 2.4 mm barrels
    Imports up 320Kpd = 2.1 mm barrels for the week.

    The inputs falling is good news as refiners have been pushing beyond what the market needs and now we have heavily overstored distillates.

    Imports should back off seasonally from here and OPEC should be on cheater watch at their September meeting. I don’t see a further big spike down from here but instead range bound trading, probably between $65 and $80 into year end.

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    Listening to PVA now.

    Re 40 – Kudos for working in Kahn reference.

  44. 44
    john11 Says:

    ATPG presentation materials posted.
    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MzIxMDUwMXxDaGlsZElEPTM5NDAzMnxUeXBlPTI=&t=1

  45. 45
    choices Says:

    HK, RRC, SWN, UPL

    Z, have you drawn any conclusions pertaining to the four stks you posted above-SWN is obviously getting crushed w/o hedges but fundamentals seem ok relative to others-cash, lower debt ratio, projected production increases-if gas stays in the toilet for the next 9-12 months, none of these four seem like a viable play.

    Thanks.

  46. 46
    1520sbroad Says:

    #39 – only place Mr. Obama will be stepping up is onto Air Force One as he begins an epic campaign tour from now until November. Rant over…

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Choices – I am thinking I will add to that chart to show you why I may do a little change up there. Leaning away from SWN a bit at the moment, leaning towards UPL, but doing a little more work.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    MMR reawakening. EXXI too. Everything just looks drab.

  49. 49
    elijahwc Says:

    #44 & #48 – FWIIW, if EXXI & MMR continue to rip then ATPG will soon follow. Too bad ATPG is run by lawyers.

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    Want a good indicator of how bad the economy is, take a look at the distillate demand holding the bottom of the barrel for this time of year. Trucks just not rolling as normal. People will drive around looking for sales, work or just to get away (and instead of flying) but trucks don’t roll for fun.

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    CPE call starting, maybe they will talk ultra deep shelf.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Crude off about $0.25, since the report earlier.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    Tropical depression 7 formed in east Atlantic, track still early but my move on a more southerly course than Danielle which would push it towards Florida.

  54. 54
    elduque Says:

    What the heck is the matter with EOG? Anything in particular or just the market?

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Market + oil + gas + weak chart + increased spending that people didn’t want to hear about. Not far from JB’s support (see above and thanks JB) at just over $84.

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    Crude green.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    MMR – that’s better, again apologies for the short term mentality at the moment. It won’t last long but this is a persistently annoying market to think longer term in.

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    CPE talking about bringing their first Haynesville well on at a restricted gross rate of 10 to 12mm/d. I sincerely hope that this restricted rate production that HK started about 6 months ago is starting to gain favor.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    MHR call starting – Eli, perk up your ears.

  60. 60
    cargocult Says:

    Let me know when distillate demand turns up.

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Cargo – you bet. There should be a seasonal increase as we approach Fall for the Christmas stocking period. Right now it looks like it will just keep scooting along the bottom end of the range. This winter in the States is supposed to be a warm one so that could be a further difficulty. Exports did pop up early summer but that quickly collapsed and my suspicion was that part of that was related to earthquakes in Latin America that took local capacity offline.

  62. 62
    elijahwc Says:

    #59 on MHR: Already know what G Evans says. “Our first EFS w/Hunt comes in at end of next month at which point we will have to revise our year end price from $5 to $7.50 at which point we will be issuing additional equity and everyone will be smiling.” Hee Hee, couldn’t resist.

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    MHR – Sounds like next EFS well (not sure if that is their first) fracced by September 15.

  64. 64
    elijahwc Says:

    2nd

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    Well I’ll say one thing for Gary, he makes a good presentation.

    Thanks, just heard that, so he said HAL fracs that well Sept 5, so again, mid Sept press release.

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    Eli – you still a holder here? Thinking to add into my little group of single digit midget names that are sort of maybe interesting.

  67. 67
    elijahwc Says:

    #66 MHR

    Yup, about 1/2 of what I started with as I’ve got a red dot on my forhead on this name (lost the other closer to 5 during the pre-oil lovefest) but Z as you know Evans got here upon fin’l engnering alone and now has three binary events. Two EFS & one MS.

    We may have to actually discover something before going after HES.

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    re 67. Yeah.

    Market looks frozen. All eyes on jobless claims tomorrow. GDP Friday.

  69. 69
    elduque Says:

    Where do you think about buy KOG. I was using this level before the additional shares. 

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    Eld- that's probably more of a chart question than one for me, will table to JB.

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    ATPG waxing philosophic re how people take for granted how important oil industry is and how hard it is to get oil out of the ground. He's not wrong but its kind of preaching to the choir talking about this at an energy conference.

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    "This administration has displayed a talent for creating a climate of uncertainty for those of us trying to run a business" – ATPG CEO

    Industry has drilled 3,191 wells in deepwater and 1,108 drilled to greater depths than Macondo, all without an accident like Macondo.

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    "The Chinese actually used some of their stimulus dollars to workers to work" on one of the their newbuild platforms – ATPG CEO, I'm starting to like this guy.

  74. 74
    elijahwc Says:

    Adding a little SD here on the insider buys and new insitutional shareholders.  And I'm not waiting for it to base as  I don't believe I have ever seen a chart as oversold on the MACD and RSI.  JB? 
    Somethings gotta happen before the auditors do the going concern thing.

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    "Federal government controlling all decisions, everything moving much slower now" – this was a reference to actions taken on their hubs, on wells already drilled or scheduled to drill.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    That's a savvy buy Eli, I'm still watching. Agreed re too far, too fast there.

  77. 77
    elijahwc Says:

    # 74 SD trading position (hope it doesn't turn into an investment) filled @ 4.12 looking to exit by year end north of $6.50.

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    re 77. Oh, well, if you only want a 58% return in 4 months, I mean, heck, no problem right? LOL.

  79. 79
    Dman Says:

    eli – tagging along with you in SD
    Z – nothing wrong with quick trades in my book. That's the market we've got …  it is what it is.

    V – looks like the metals are anticipating that Ben will get a call to start the helicopter.

  80. 80
    elijahwc Says:

    #78 on SD
    Yup and with no premium decay in case Dman and I have to wait 4 1/2 months. 
    Also, because I'm interested in losing some real money I'm looking into SDRXP, the 8.5% cvt Pfd issued last last year to the "last set of believers" which just printed an all time low <85 this a.m.

  81. 81
    choices Says:

    NG off almost 4% and the beat (drilling) goes on-what is the old saw, we will sell at a loss but make it up on volume.
    jeez!

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    Choices – thanks for another laugh. I blame the high prices of 2008 for the low prices of 2010. That and guys like Aubrey refusing last fall to "take one for the team". I was glad to hear Floyd's comments yesterday.

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Oil at $72, up 35 cents on the day. Bad numbers were fairly well priced in. We should see a reversal on gasoline inventories next week but it will be slow. I don't have a good thought for distillates before at least Thanksgiving.

     

    Bill – where is Robry for tomorrow? I am at 30 to 35 now. Street is 38 last I saw.

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    Details on the housing sales (lack thereof) numbers:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/july-new-home-sales-2010-8

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    Adding to 84, homebuilders must have the same attitude as gas players have had. Except their mantra is more along the lines of "If we build, the govt will ensure the mortgage on it"

  86. 86
    elijahwc Says:

    TRGL – very humble presentation at Enercom.  Killer upside if the Paris basin JV w/HES is successful. 

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    Eli – was on a phone call, skipped it. Did they mention valuation and why it is stuck in the mud, even after announcing the JV? I guess to need to go listen, not listening to ECA as they won't have anything new to say at this kind of conference.

  88. 88
    elijahwc Says:

    #87 TRGL:  No stock promo here re price.  Just a very nice walk through on acreage (they ar the biggest in the basin), the geology (lots of history and data) and the JV with Hess (HES is motoring on with team onground ready to spud 4 ).  The relationship with HES leads me to believe that this outfit is not nearly the risk of six months ago (little debt, full carry by HES to 130mm, then 50/50) and therefore a great shot on goal to the upside.  Maybe Europe's BEXP absent hype?  Slides pretty informative and presentation short and clean.

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    Eli – Thanks, been through those slides before, lower total organic content, don't know where the lower end of the porosity is. Will listen to their talk when the archive is available.

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    Macondo BOP removal delayed to Friday or Saturday. Relief well still set for shortly after Labor day.

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    Interesting to see the turn in several names that were getting hit with oil earlier including an undeserved dip in NOG, WLL, should give a shot at a run for EOG as well but in front of Thursday and Friday's eco data there is just not to give anyone any confidence. 

    In the meantime:

     

    GST call starts 5 minutes before the close, will be taking notes.

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    CNBC reporting that WSI took its hurricane forecast for the season down, but also said that it will be very busy from here on out. That's in line with Bastardi's comments on the season. He's looking for named storms 6 -10 by September 10th.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Nice to see MMR hanging on to the HOD with 30 minutes to go in the session. Smart money kills the upper strike prior to the close as the jobs number could be a buzz kill in the morning.

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    Beerthirty

  95. 95
    bill Says:

    83 was away today..
    robry is at +43
    avg survey +38
    enercast (always close to robry # is +44)
    http://www.firstenercastfinancial.com/e_news.php?cont=39146

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    Thanks Bill, I'm at 35

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    TD 7 became Tropical Storm Earl. Tracking for Florida.

  98. 98
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #69, eld, KOG, $$2.50-$2.60, I added at $2.53, missed that spike down at 10:30
    #74, Eli, SD, watching…agree, very oversold, still no material bullish divergence on the MACD or RSI vs. Price, also like to see a bit more vol at the lows, I'll may join you on a higher low bounce…
    ATPG chart looks interesting from a bullish perspoective, developing channel….updated charts…
    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280
     
     

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    JB – really liked the ATPG presentation today, highly recommend a listen. I think they get a bigger bounce just prior to the end of the moratorium in November. I had thought the moratorium would end sooner as signaled by the White House several weeks ago but Salazar has now shown those signals to be a Red Herring.

  100. 100
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #99, Zman, I will check it out, thank you…I did look at the presentation posted by john at #44, very interesting….from a technical perspective, really nice daily hammer close at the bottom channel line, topside channel line resistance corresponds with P&F trendline resistace at $14.50, thinking if the stars align, this might be an upside target, any thoughts on the options, look a bit thin? 

  101. 101
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #100 ATPG, actually the options look fairly liquid, thinking the Sept, $12.5, delta @ .33 might be a good choice… 

  102. 102
    zman Says:

    JB – voted, it's really easy when you include your link (you know how lazy I am). Thanks for the reiteration of comments on EXXI and MMR on Tuesday, that helped with my thinking on today's re-entry. Is the green blob at $14 on the MMR chart your first significant resistance? I saw that after the close it was trading above the interim top from June. 

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    JB – In this weird market, I've been surprised at late by the liquidity and volumes trading in some of the smaller names. You expect that in names like HAL but I was pleasantly surprised to see it in MMR.

  104. 104
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #103, MMR, looks fantastic, I was waiting for MMR to retest the 200 day, a bit closer to $12, should have bought that darn pullback today to $12.40, but it ran without me again…great trade, it's up quite a bit in afterhours it appears, still have my full load of EXXI, hopefully it will share in the love, EXXI also looks great… SSN, is in a daily chart bull flag, lite vol, may get a chance to add on some of the misses depending on how the mkt reacts tomorrow, for folks lookng to get into CIGX, the hammer near the 200 day SMA looks very promising today on not bad vol

  105. 105
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #102, MMR, Zman, thank you much for voting, next resistance at the P&F trendline $14-$14.49…

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