20
Aug

Friday

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Market Sentiment Watch: Negative sentiment going into expiry with no economic data to provide any sort of turning point today and numbers from Dell and HP doing little to impress the Street. Energy land is pretty quiet this morning and I expect a bored, probably red trading.  Next week we get presentations from a number of E&P names at Enercom (see schedule here) and I may do a little bottom fishing in advance of those presentations today.  Note that several ZLT names with interests in the Bakken present on Monday including OAS first presentation at conference, WLL, BEXP, and SSN. 

Ecodata Watch: Nada, zip, zilch.

BP Spill Watch:

  • Coast Guard delays bottom kill until after Labor Day. Obama family on vacation in Martha's Vineyard. Coincidence? You be the judge.
  • And where did the sense of "get 'er dun yesterday dammit, with a boot on your neck at that" go?! They've been lucky that hurricane season has been benign so far and now they decide to wait until the heart of the season to finish the job? Sheesh. 
  • Oh, wait a minute, now I see. The U.S. wants the original BOP as evidence so they have told BP to fish out the stuck pipe in the BOP, remove the BOP to the surface to be booked into evidence, and replace it with a new BOP before the bottom kill is undertaken, all with a warning not to leak any more barrels in the process. The pipe in the BOP could extend into the cement of the top kill so this may just not work but the government wants the new BOP in place to handle potential pressure issues from the bottom kill which they deem to be "low probability"
  • Scientists say an invisible oil "mist" plume 22 miles long is hanging out in the Gulf of Mexico
  • BP and RIG accounts of testing procedures prior to Macondo blowout at odds. RIG accuses BP of withholding evidence, BP denies doing so.

In Today's Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Storage Review
  4. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio)

  • $5,200
  • 99% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades: None

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $3,800
  • 40% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades: None

Commodity Watch Crude oil fell $0.99 to close at $74.43 yesterday. We may see some erratic swings as the front month contract expires today. This morning crude is trading off a buck plus.

Natural gas fell $0.07 to close at $4.17 yesterday despite the EIA reporting a smaller than expected (at least consensus expectations) injection to storage (see below). This morning gas is trading off 4 cents.

  • Tropics Watch: A couple of potential storms, one near Honduras (10% chance of development in 48 hours) and one in the far eastern Atlantic (20% chance).

Natural Gas Storage Review


ZComments:

     

  • There are 11 weeks left in the traditional injection season (end of October)
  • Last year, due largely to strong production levels but also due to weak demand, we kept injecting for another 13 weeks and a longer injection season is probably a safe bet this year as well as production is higher yet again although demand appears somewhat recovered.
  • Last year's injections would take us to a peak of 3,645 Bcf.
  • For reference, 2009's peak was the record peak at 3,837 Bcf.
  • The average for the last five peaks is 3,521 Bcf.
  • My target storage range is now 3,542 to 3,900 Bcf but I suspect we will come in close to 3,750.
  • Lastly, note in the last set of charts that this is the 4th week consecutive week the producing region saw a draw down due to extreme heat. Storage there was running at near highs just 6 weeks ago but is now 6% below record levels now.
  • In a nutshell ... it could be worse. If we peak at the mid to low end of the storage peak target range above look for gas prices to move into the low to mid $5s with cold weather.

 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • Will add in comments.

137 Responses to “Friday”

  1. 1
    bill Says:

    Good BP comments
    If i were them, Id say no and pull anchor and leave

  2. 2
    bill Says:

    invisible oil mist, lol from the article
    If you swam through the plume, you wouldn't notice it.
    "The water samples when we were right in the plume look like spring water," . "You certainly didn't see any oil droplets and you certainly didn't smell it."
     
    Im going to tell the wife I have Invisible profits on my ep holdings. You can't see them or spend them but they are there ..really!

  3. 3
    bill Says:

    Western region is looking like they are at max storage already which i think can be seen in the cash prices

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    KOG gets warning letter regarding the number independent directors due to the resignation of one. Non event.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Bill – yes, agreed re west. All that new takeaway capacity and still we are very full. I've been surprised by how resilient Wyoming production has been even as their rig count has not been as healthy as in some states.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    Drillers NBR, HP, and PTEN cut to Neutral at Sterne Agee

  7. 7
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Early Look at the Market – Fri 8.20.10
      
    Morning Levels:
    ·         SP500 futures are off 6 points and near lows of the morning. 
    ·         Europe trading – weakness across the board; financials are leading on downside (dwn ~2%) while consumer, industrials, telecom, materials, energy all off ~1%+.  NOK up small (extending gains from Thurs).  On the downside, Phillips off 3.4% (worries about panel demand w/Sharp production cuts), Aegon -3%, Saint Gobain -2.7%, Santander/BBVA both off 2.5%, Allianz -2.5% ,Agricole -2.2%. 
    ·         Japan dn 1.9%; China dn 1.7%; Hong Kong dn 0.4%; India dn 0.2%; Australia dn 1.1%
    ·         sov CDS wider throughout Europe –  Spain +6bp, Portugal +1bp, Italy +4bp, Ireland +7bp. 
    ·         Treasuries – v strong across the board; 2yr yields 0.459% (fresh new all time lows); 10yr yields hit new multi-month lows (2.539%). 
    ·         FX – Euro off 0.9% and falling fast this morning (people citing the Weber remarks); GBP dwn 0.7%; yen is flattish. DXY up 0.8% and hitting multi-week highs. 
    ·         Gold down $2 to $1,230, near lows
    ·         Copper down 1.75%, at lows
    ·         Crude -$1 to $73.40, near lows
     
    Today’s Top Stories
    ·         Concerns on growth still dominate trading – Weak US trading Thursday due to concerns over the 2H economic outlook (jobless claims continue to rise, the 2nd Aug Fed survey out of Philadelphia came in worse than expected, JPM lowered its US GDP forecast) weighed on indices around the world this morning with Japan and China underperforming.  The theme around the world remain the same with an allocation out of risk assets
    ·         In China, Financials and Property stocks were weighed down by 1) a Securities Times report that Chinese Banks may need to take a Yuan600B provision on bad local government loans, 2) China's Ministry of Land and Resources said late Thursday it will reinforce its campaign to crack down on land hoarding and misuse by property developers (DJ) and 3) Taiwan’s July export orders came in weaker than expected. 
    ·         Eco growth – JPMorgan cutting ests on US and China GDP (see full notes below) 
    ·         ECB’s Weber gives interview to Bloomberg – being cited for euro weakness this morning – says that the ECB should continue w/its unlimited liquidity operations through the end of the year before resuming exit strategy discussions in Q1. 
    ·         Politics – Charlie Cook (political pollster) sees GOP “romp” in Nov – Cook says the GOP on track to win back the House in Nov.  WSJ 
    ·         TYC to replace SII in SP500 after the close of trading on Aug 26
    ·         Disk Drivers – somewhat pos. comments from MRVL conf call – the co acknowledged an inventory correction in the industry but says it has largely come to an end.  Separately, STX gave an interview to Reuters in which it acknowledged that industry ASPs could fall in Sept Q (~4% Q/Q) but that indications for BTS were encouraging and that it was hopeful on the holidays. 
    ·         PCs – HPQ and DELL earnings – HPQ #s no surprise given they already preannounced for Jul and Oct qtrs; DELL was disappointing due to GM miss (consumer biz was soft); both companies pretty bullish on enterprise/commercial trends, noting that corporate refresh cycle remains robust; however, less upbeat on consumer.  DELL said consumer PCs weakened towards end of the Q and that BTS so far weak; HPQ also said consumer a bit soft and that consumer PC inventory a bit higher than it would like. 
    ·         Software – strong earnings last night, esp. from CRM (INTU and MENT also strong). 
    ·         GPS – Reports Q210 Earnings, Q comes in a penny better although GMs a little light; bought back more stock than expected which helped by ~0.5c
    ·         Fund Flows – HG funds had very strong inflows of $1.6bn, the third week of accelerating inflows following $880mm and $260mm in the previous two weeks. After five strong weeks of inflows ($820mm weekly average), flows into HY funds were much lighter at +$50mm this week. Equity funds saw large outflows of $9bn. This follows outflows of $500mm last week, largely reversing the $10bn of inflows seen in the previous two weeks (E Beinstein)

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    By the way, Iran set to fire up their nuke tomorrow.

  9. 9
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Credit Markets down with futures.  But comments from trading desks indicate that no one is doing anything… just traders throwing out quotes to other traders. 
     
    TED Spread is still on the march back toward 15… TED at +17.9 bps this morning.  Economies may be slowing down, but TED is telling us that we are not returning to the land of "OMG, The Banks Are All Gonna DIE."
     
    Investment Grade Credit Index making a fairly large move, on top of y'day's fairly large move.  Now at +111 1/2 bps  +2 3/8 bps wider this morning.
     
    High Yield Credit Index also lower/wider.  But strangly, not as much as IG would indicate.  HY is off -11/32 pts (+9 bps) to 97.
     
    So, stocks rocky, but nothing in the credit markets indicate that today will be an Equity Cliff Dive.  'course, light volumes and desks manned by C Teams means anything could happen.  In all honesty, it's the programmed trading that is calling the shots right now.  So, Friday, Expiry, mid-August, no-eco-data day… if something gets really outta whack, I might buy/sell a few shares.  Just have cash and target prices ready….

  10. 10
    bill Says:

    bdi up strong
     
    http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp

  11. 11
    TEXWS6 Says:

    Re Storage:
    We have several Bcf's of new gas coming out of the Haynesville alone, what do you think explains a lower gas storage number?   I know the heat is helping out, but seriously, there is probably 2Bcf of new gas coming out of the Haynesville alone.  Is the manufacturing/economy doing better?

  12. 12
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TEX — what about "conventional" gas wells… fewer being drilled?  More decline from the GoM shelf?  You ask a good question… don't know the answer.  Manufacturing up?  Not in the Philadelpia area (as per y'days eco-report). 

  13. 13
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    CapitalOne Southcoast going out on a limb this morning… siding with the CIO at SD with a "New Add" recommendation and a price target of $7

  14. 14
    TEXWS6 Says:

    BOP,
    Conventional gas well drilling is few and far between if even extinct now a days.  I just wonder if it's a signature of these steep decline shale wells that will cause this sort of production profile or lack of gas production.

  15. 15
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    MMR had a fairly large (and largely unexplained) positive move yesterday.  But didn't drag EXXI along with it.  If anyone has an explanation, would sure like to know….

  16. 16
    blackgold39 Says:

    re 2: lol, epic.  BP is going to start to show some balls if they don't want to be bled to death over the next 5 years.

  17. 17
    blackgold39 Says:

    re 12: I imagine Haynesville is the only gas play without associated liquids that still has an up and to the right profile at the moment, due in large part to those extraordinary lease bonuses from a couple years back….

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    TEXW – Yeah, Louisiana up a little under 2 Bcfgpd YoY, and up a similar amount if you go back 2 years as we are at the beginning of the hockeystick. Weather has far and away been the cause of the smaller injections. Not just a little but a lot above normal on the cooling degree day count in July and August. Demand showing some improvement along the Gulf Coast for chemicals, hard to quantify, will do a rail chemical car run which is a pretty good indicator of how chemicals (the largest piece of industrial natural gas demand is doing). In the big states where conventional gas has been dominant but where the shales and / or wash plays grab the headlines (thinking OK on the washes) production has stagnated for quite some time (back into mid 2008 and is probably set to be flat to slightly lower in the near term as people rein in plays like the Woodford).  Gulf was slipping back as well in recent reports and that is going to get a bit steeper later this year and next due to the moratorium (there's nothing like having a 5 year RP and being told you can drill for at least half of a year … kind of like being on a fast treadmill and being forced by some jerk to stand still … you end up hitting the wall).

  19. 19
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EOG and the "Heath Shale" play in Montana…??
     
    From Global Hunter's note this morning (don't think they will mind sharing their comments… we like the equity team there)
    http://www.capmarkets.com/viewfile.asp?ID1=0&ID2=0&directory=13887&filename=GHS_Dirty_Energy_Daily_2010-08-20.pdf

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    Thanks for 19

  21. 21
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Adding to #19… we like the debt team there too

  22. 22
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    High Yield Index coming off the morning lows… now only 6bp wider on the day.

  23. 23
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HeadTrader thinking today will be extremely borind with drifting and occassional spikes up and down for no reason and no volume.

  24. 24
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    borind = boring… of course

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    EOG getting hit pre open again. Mulling a medium term entry  in the common (say 3 to 6 months for a 90 to $110ish type move). I have not owned the common in a long time. The stock is now below levels from before the analyst meeting. Catalysts will be getting asset sales done by year end and more news on Rockies drilling on the 3Q call. Lot of value here the Street is currently ignoring.

  26. 26
    ram Says:

    ZMAN , you have not talked about END in a while.  I noticed their name referenced with EOG in the above article.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    EOG – there is a gap in the daily the stock looks to be trying to fill all the way down at $89.67.

  28. 28
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Times of Oman: Three US shale gas firms up for sale 2010-08-20 13:27:25.774 GMT
    http://www.timesofoman.com/innercat.asp?cat=&detail=38820&rand=slAKfQJBd2JFDoiKx9gbpUGNXl

  29. 29
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    FWIW, HT thinks you buy any spike down today…

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Yeah, trying to forget it is in the ZLT. That is one case of following good management around from gig to gig (Bill Transier in this case formerly of Ocean, CFO to Hackett there when Shiller of EXXI was head of exploration) that did not work out for me. I keep one tenth of an eyeball on them. Didn't know they were in Montana.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    Re 28 – Saw that BOP on upstream, Anshutz in the Bakken and yet another encap player on that list.

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    SSN – still no response to my questions regarding the potential for the upper end of the deal to be quashed by their last commentary. They speak Monday at Enercom, should know by then. Last presentation presumed the deal would be done at the upper end of the range ($79 mm) which would put my valuation at about $1.75.

  33. 33
    ram Says:

    Thanks, didn't mean to bring up something negative.

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    BOP – re 29. FWIW, I'm sort of  in that camp as well. Feels overdone here on the group, probably not as overdone on the broad indexes though. Traders and institutions taking last of vacations now through Sept 6 … why buy now when you can buy lower later has got to be part of the buyer strike mentality here. Plus the data out of DC stink.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    re 33.  Hey, no problem, it is what it is. Which is not much at the moment. They started off with big dreams, and a big G&G staff, targeting overlooked North Sea oil prospects. Then they drilled I don't know how many consecutive dry holes. They've had a little more success in the last year and have taken a look at onshore U.S. assets and I probably ought to get unlazy on it, and either punt or double down, but I just have not worked on it in awhile.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    MMR with the early rally again, BOP, anything from the rumor mill on that? BB Hill sidetrack 3? EXXI so far not going along today.

  37. 37
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    MMR move puzzling… wonder if a short holder fund is closing shop.  Don't know.  Weird that EXXI is not playing along.  Trying to find something out here….

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    Bill – BALT – do you have a projection there yet? Their contracts vs spot rates are nice. If utilization stays up and it looks like it will they should be a strong earner next twelve months. 

  39. 39
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — thinking 2.65 might be a good point to snag some trading shares… JB?  Any thoughts there?

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    Also watching HAL for an entry. Weak again with market, things improving there. Only real cloud would be potential for fallout from the Macondo cement job. Since BP didn't let SLB test it, don't really see that HAL is at fall but I'm not a congressman.

  41. 41
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #39, BOP, KOG, I'm thinking, $2.50-$2.60 is the sweet spot, but I could join you at $2.65, then  add'l just below… 

  42. 42
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    JB — seems to be getting to 2.65 pretty quickly… maybe i'll just put a bid out there at 2.55 and see if it gets hit at some point today…  thank you for your comments!

  43. 43
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: The XOM – CHK charts from Global Hunter (thanks BOP)  reminded me of the lists that CHK used to put out '03 – '05 when they wanted to show who was producing the most NG and who was growing most rapidily. In those days both XTO and CHK were growing production by 30 – 40%/yr. The majors however were showing decent sized declines yr/yr. I am having a very difficult time being a NG bull. Are there any other areas of declining production or increasing demand you have not touched on? How do you measure conventional production declines, increased demand from fertilizer, declines from int'l large cap space. I have never seen the sell siders that I have access to as negative. '11 strip way below $5 now. You do not have to be bullish. When you toss all the moving parts together are you also becoming more bearish?  

  44. 44
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — although, 2.63 was the recent low… mulling…..

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    VWsYF – the windmill guys, down another 4% on nothing volume, breaking through lows from the end of June, next apparent support is at 37, from March 2009. I have to believe the POTUS talks up alternative energy as the deep water moratorium comes to an end. His plan of quickly tripling U.S. wind capacity in a short span, I think it was 3 years but can't find the story from around election time, can't be bad for them, even if it happens more slowly. Did note last weekend fan blades on the highway headed east. 

  46. 46
    Geno Says:

    Comment on Haynesville gas. Looks like most of the players in the Haynesville have a position in the eagle ford and are starting to deploy more resourses there thus taking away from the dry gas here. It's just a matter of time until they have everything held by production. Once that's accomplished the Haynesville play will resemble a "Ghost Town" until gas prices firm to an economical level. So in a long about way, my impression of 2BCF will be "Gone with the Wind".

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Tom –

    Are there any other areas of declining production or increasing demand you have not touched on?

    I didn't mention that TX and NM have been slipping. Texas however may halt that decline due to the liquids rich Eagle Ford associated gas. 

    How do you measure conventional production declines,

    That data is harder to come by, I take a look at some sell side research these days as my staff is limited. Conventional gas is still the overwhelming majority of what the U.S. produces each day (about 80% at last check) and that should decline at around 35% per annum left unchecked (no new wells, not workovers). It has not been completely neglected but activity is off. EIA does not break out this data so again, hard to quantify.

    increased demand from fertilizer,

    I track railchem on Bloom, and I pay attention to what AGU and POT and others talk about pretty anecdotal.

    declines from int'l large cap space.

    Um, not following, please expound

    I have never seen the sell siders that I have access to as negative.

    There are a number who have been gas bears for years, Barclays, Tom Driscoll, some others come to mind.

    When you toss all the moving parts together are you also becoming more bearish? 

    I'm neutralish and have been for some time. Am I becoming more bearish? Hmmm. Maybe a little but the net effect is that I'm bullish a little later than I thought I would be. I have been thinking mid 2011 would see a rig count decline, maybe an epic one if gas prices are not substantially higher as CHK,HK, and the rest of the Haynesville crowd get HBP on the acreage they want to keep and cut back on drilling. The markets would anticipate that event with a gradually rise in prices 6 months before so call it year end 2010. Now we have a bunch of casinghead gas to contend with from the EFS, the Barnett combo area north of Ft Worth, the wash gas of the two panhandles, and gas from renewed interest in the Rockies in the DJ Basin. You also have HBP worries in the Marcellus especially in PA. Add in my concern over warmth this winter and a weakling of an economy which could crimp oil prices and distillates that are overstored and yeah, I think a more bullish tone is pushed down the road a bit further.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Geno – was typing 47 before I read 46, agreed.

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – OAS

    OAS – Sold the August $15 Calls for $1.90, down 16%. I continue to own the common in the ZLT.

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    EOG lifting off the bottom

  51. 51
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: 47. Thanks as always. Should we be value buyers of the offshore driller stocks? This is just some book value data I came across. Since 1970's the group has traded at 2.0 x book value. 1.7x in the 70's, 1.5x in the 80's, 2.1x in the 90's and 2.4x in the 00's. Today the group trades at 1.2x BV. If any one knows when the moratorium will be lifted, there might be a trade there.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Tom – do you mean the rig companies or the operators?

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZLT – SSN

    SSN – Adding back some of the common sold at $1.30 for $1.11. Company speaks Monday at Enercom which should provide another update on drilling in the Bakken (but not a new rate), their plans going forward post Niobrara acreage sale, and an update on the sale itself.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    BOP, any new thoughts on CIGX today?

  55. 55
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    LOL, z  😉

  56. 56
    tomdavis12 Says:

    52 Rig cos

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    BOP – Wasn't kidding. Am thinking to get long a little. Couple of questions? And you'll be able to tell I have not been paying attention with the first one.

    Is this FDA approved or is it like a vitamin and they don't need that? Is there a clinical study being done on the Alz side?

  58. 58
    andy Says:

    woke up this morn turned tv on and there was an informercial on quitting smoking.  it was homeopathic medicine with a product called smoke remedy.  went to web site smokeremedy.com as was cuious why no price was mentioned in infomercial. it was only 129.95 + 14 shipping.for a months supply.  if they can sell this, then i know CIGX has a winner, but i seriously doubt there are any buyers.at that price. 

  59. 59
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    CIGX — got my order confirm email last night… so, guess the Aug 10th online order just didn't "stick," for some reason.  Think the ordering is brisk… but it will be the REorder rate that counts.
     
    Also, just not gonna get too worried about SNAFUS around a roll-out.  That is why they are doing it this way… start small, make mistakes, fix mistakes, get a sense of initial interest, get a sense of re-order rates, set production levels for 2011, roll out on a more national basis.  I can be patient here. 

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    EOG up 1 penny.

     

    Tom – yes, probably so. Whose got the greatest number of rigs exposed to the Gulf now?

  61. 61
    andy Says:

    bop  – if u find out anything on MMR, let us know as i am naked short a bunch of calls and trying to decide to exercise them or take my beating

  62. 62
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — nothing in the least "pharma" about the CigRx product.  It is overseen by the FDA, under rules that the FDA wrote themselves, last year, to "regulate" tobacco products.  But due to those same rules, CigRx can be sold as a "suppliment" or a "nutraceutical" and is only subject to safety rules.  As they are NOT marketing this as a pharma, they can NOT make claims that it "helps you quit smoking."  That would push them into pharma-land… and involve the whole Phase 1 – 3 process that takes billions and years.  So that is why they can't (won't) pound the table for CigRx as a "stop smoking aid," and merely market it as a "tobacco substition."  It's brilliant, really.  And has the tobacco companies fuming.  (And you have to be 20x as careful, when tobacco companies fume, as they have a lot of $$ and lawyer-power.  Star has played in this arena for years… they KNOW the dirty tricks Big Tobacco plays… that is why they are being super-careful.  But, when Big T is worried, you know Star is onto something.)
     
    Here's a high-level (and fairly neutral) write up in the local paper where Star launched CigRx in Virginia.  It's an easy place to start.
     
    http://www2.timesdispatch.com/business/2010/aug/07/b-star07-ar-416633/

  63. 63
    tomdavis12 Says:

    60: Last I saw was RIG, but I have not been watching closely rigs in and out of GOM. I expect to contact my NE person 8/30 and the rig reports should be showing up mid Sept. I will throw out some numbers then.

  64. 64
    RMD Says:

    MMr rumored to release update Mon, BB HIll well hoped to be good. EXXI not in BB Hill well.
    I recommend BOP to fill BofD position at KOG.
    Was the oil mist plume what Matt Simmons was talking about?

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    Re 62. Thanks. What about on the Alz side?

  66. 66
    PackMan Says:

    Bought some HAL … 2nd trip today …

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    RMD – thanks. Re Simmons – no, he went from separate link being responsible for the big surface area of the spill to "it's heavy and pooling on the ocean floor".

  68. 68
    Nicky Says:

    Morning all.  There are signs of postive divergence and the hourly indicators are getting ready to turn but not quite there yet.
    So only question is does this level hold or do we need to go down and test the 1056/57 level.  We 'should' then see a rebound into the 26th and possibly later.  I think its possible that 1100 will now cap any rally.  Its looking more and more likely that we will go visit the 960 or lower area in September/October.

  69. 69
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    andy — good marketing info on that smokeremedy stuff.  I thought the CigRx pricing was a bit high.  They think they can price each pack at just under the price of a pack of cigarettes.  But i don't think that's right.  Should be more like 1/2 price of a pack.  JMHO, of course… and I was not in the "target market focus group."
     
    Will get back to you on MMR if i get any anwers.  It's just acting weird. 

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    Thanks Nicky

  71. 71
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — CigRx somehow got together with a private medical research institute, Roskamp, who is known for the studies on aging and old age diseases.  Actually, I think Roskamp contacted Star.  Anyway, the active compounds in Star's CigRx dissolved the plaque that is associated with brain deposits and "hardening of the arteries" in Roskamp's tests.  Roskamp was almost giddy about the results, as they have been after this Holy Grail for years.  So, it's not a formal partnership (although Roskamp and his doctors all bought stock in Star and own warrants to buy more)… but the fact that Roskamp is independently working with the Star compound is an even more compelling argument.
     
    It will take years and lots of testing and research on animals and humans to determine if Star's compound does anything to reduce (or, even reverse!) the hideous affects of Alzheimers.  But Roskamp is excited.  And if CigRx tastes good and makes you feel a tad calmer, what the heck.  I'll pop a pill a day, just to keep the Alzheimer's away.

  72. 72
    andy Says:

    bop –  have a friend who was involved in infomercials.  he told me their studies concluded 19.95 was the magic price point.  i agree with him. 

  73. 73
    Nicky Says:

    oil seems pretty oversold to me Z.  you think we see a bounce?

  74. 74
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    andy — isn't that the "MAGICJACK" price point?  would explain a lot there….

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    Nicky – I think we hold $70 to $80 for awhile, at least until OPEC in September.

  76. 76
    AAA Says:

    BOP,  I hate to tell you this, but I have friends with the Majic Jack and they love it.

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    Interesting if you've never looked at it:

    http://www.samsonoilandgas.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1160&EID=14312589&PageName=Corporate%20Presentation

  78. 78
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    AAA — ha!!!!  i have nothing against the product… but i deeply loath the commercial (which could have something to do with the fact that CNBC plays it every 5 minutes or so).
     
    I have a friend who loaths "Big Boy."  As in Bob's Big Boy.  I don't get it.  BBB serves pretty good hamburgers and very good breakfasts (and i think it's just the statue of BB that my friend has nightmares about).  However, ya never know what will set some people off.  "MAGICJACK" seems to have my number.

  79. 79
    Bob Says:

    BOP: Must be your local cable provider (or satelite service) offering you the Magic Jack. I haven't seen a MagicJack commercial ever on CNBC

  80. 80
    RMD Says:

    MARPS increased distribution 52% Y-Y, flattish Q-Q;  oil production up, gas down, prices for both up Y-Y. (File this under Nobody Cares but Me.)

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    RMD – I care but am not familiar with the name

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    WLT getting clocked on no news…the weirdness of expiry day.

  83. 83
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Bob — did not know that.  Figured if i was suffering through those commercials, everyone else watching CNBC was too.  Glad to know i am living in my own little circle of local hell.   — HA!!

  84. 84
    elijahwc Says:

    #80 MARPS similar to MVO is a Grantor Trust and therefore reports on form 1099.  Means no UBTI (unrelated taxable business income which is limited to 1m in qualified plans).  Nice find…very few of these around.

  85. 85
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EGY — just bot some trading shares at 5.3399.  FWIW.

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    Eli – OK, you know DOM is one of those too, now owned by WLT who is probably going to take production (all gas) higher.

  87. 87
    RMD Says:

    84 MARPS's cousin, which MARPS owns a part of, is TIRTZ.  Don't own that one;  thinner.  Owns leases in dirrerent areas.

  88. 88
    Nicky Says:

    lots of positive divergences showing up.  Nasdaq a lot stronger than the spx which could be a good leading indicator.  We do however need to get back above 1072.

  89. 89
    1520sbroad Says:

    Gas rigs down 7 this week but total US rigs up

  90. 90
    RMD Says:

    86  z, just read about WLT taking over from Highmount.  I suppose that is all of DOM's royalty properties.  Has WLT said they will spend capx $ to expand production here?  Seems that would make DOM interesting as royalty income should expand cet. par.

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    I have not yet added a second piece of EOG, I think I will wait until next week.

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    ECT trying to drift higher.

  93. 93
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Some of the negative sentiment is due to next weeks revised 2Q GDP #. I am not sure of the day it comes out but the fear of it being lowered is out there.

  94. 94
    milepost_43 Says:

    #93…like to use this Bloomberg site for econ calendar
    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

  95. 95
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — snagged some trading shares at 2.65.   FWIW.

  96. 96
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Milepost: Thanks.

  97. 97
    AAA Says:

    Any idea why WLL is getting clocked today?

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    Tom – yeah, I've seen a couple of brokers taking down 2Q-4Q GDP after this week's data.

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    Re 97. Best guess is its option related.

  100. 100
    cargocult Says:

    BOP-what do you think with EGY? buy at 5.40 and sell at 6?

  101. 101
    PackMan Says:

    83 – yes we get inundated w/ Magic Jack commercials here also

  102. 102
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    cargo — i was happy to snag EGY at any price below 5.50… think it runs to 6.40 or so.  But, if you buy at 5.40 and sell at 6.00, you get a nice steak dinner (instead of trying to eat the whole cow).  JMHO.

  103. 103
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PackMan — sorry to hear that.  Welcome to my little part of hell.  😉

  104. 104
    VTZ Says:

    http://usawatchdog.com/why-is-the-u-s-government-protecting-bp/
    Another BP/government article

  105. 105
    ram Says:

    O.K., BOP, I'll try the KOG trading shares – in at 2.66.

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    TAT president picked up 164K shares open market at just over $3

  107. 107
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    MMR — got the scoop.  Rumor has it that BlueBerry Hill is a "monster" and that they are only 6 weeks away from TD.
     
    This is the SCUTTLEBUTT.  Doesn't mean it's true.  But doesn't mean it's not true, either.  And the fact that EXXI is not a partner in BBHill would 'splain why MMR is scooting (and EXXI is just treading water).
     
    That said, should get some more MMR/EXXI poop after EnterCom next week.  Hearing drilling at BlackBeard East is going faster than expected and that they are now below 19k ft and sub-salt layer.  No word on hydrocarbons (they don't know what they have yet)… but that's the update.

  108. 108
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — don't think we can get too hurt at this level.  KOG might go lower (if oil prices drop), but with no net debt, it's not a scary one to sit in for a while.

  109. 109
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Goal for today…. buy EGY and KOG trading shares if mrkt sells off and takes those two single digit migets with it.  Mission accomplished.  Have to run out for a while now.
     
    Holds downs the forts for us, ok, ram?

  110. 110
    ram Says:

    Oakey doakey.

  111. 111
    cargocult Says:

    WHX really taking it on the chin.

  112. 112
    RMD Says:

    WLT – DOM:
    been reading about DOM and WLT.  Does not make sense for WLT to extract CBM if DOM has a big rty interest;  would be "cheaper" to go next door–where they just bought the rights also.

  113. 113
    zman Says:

    Re 111. Yeah, no news, no rhyme, no reason. Analyst last quarter was disappointed in the distribution so they downgraded. This quarter it beat their numbers and they reiterate the downgrade. They point out that the trust will have no assets in 5 years. I point out that a 13% yield is well above group and that everyone knows it will decline to 0. So I'd bet the second negative analyst said something today, on a day he knows he can unnerve some people to get the price lower. Last time they did this it was a buying opportunity.

  114. 114
    zman Says:

    re 112. Not sure I get that. They took over the trust, right, so DOM's interest is their interest now, right? Not Dominion's. I haven't read up on it much but that was my first blush understanding.

  115. 115
    andy Says:

    CIGX – for those who ordered
    z- hope u buy some soon so i don't feel bad posting this stuff on your energy site!!!

     
     
    Thanks very much for your email. I have just returned to the office after two days on the road, and I would like very much to follow up on the customers whom you mentioned have ordered product and have not received shipment. As of close of business on Wednesday, all pending shipments had left the fulfillment center,
     
    After the launch we identified a problem with the synching of order codes across several system platforms. That issue was resolved, and as I said, all shipments affected by this were made by earlier this week. However, I would be very happy to confirm individual shipments if you can give me a list of last and first names, together with city and state.
     
    Thanks again –
     
    Sincerely,
     
    Sara Machir
     

    Sara Troy Machir
    Vice President, Communications & Investor Relations
    Star Scientific, Inc.
    301-654-8300

  116. 116
    elijahwc Says:

    Where size does matter.
    I am always comforted when a "BIG" starts taking a position in a small/mid cap.   Their interest can extend pretty far in terms of price and time.
    So, KOG holder please note that Blackrock has shown up with a starter bite of 2.6 million shares (prior to 2ndry) which on day one makes them #5 on the list.
     
     

  117. 117
    zman Says:

    Eli – very good to know.

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    Bunch of the late day plunges being reversed now. BP now green, WLL WHX, WLT all down hard, guess they are working their way through the alphabet.

  119. 119
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    elijah — Blackrock is considered one of those "smart guys" (which I know you know).  So, that is Happy Kogger News indeed!  Thanks for pointing it out.

  120. 120
    andy Says:

    ram  bop     – nice buy on KOG

  121. 121
    zman Says:

    AEZ back down below $7, don't feel bad about my post merger, pre serious rally sale. Probably have to look at the arb there now, that deal won't be killed.

  122. 122
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    CIGX — thank, Andy.  I have made my (inner) peace with CIGX's rollout snags and snafus.  If it works — and people reorder — we won't remember this wobbly start. 
     
    Spoke to a couple of (very large) holders y'day.  They aren't worried.  So I'm not. 

  123. 123
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    (That said, it was sure impressive to see Bob go-to-town on 'em.  Very impressive ideed!)

  124. 124
    zman Says:

    SSN – inching up.  Today's add brings average cost there to $0.76.

  125. 125
    RMD Says:

    114 WLT's presentation- slide 22- mentions a new mine being devleoped in the area.  That would be great if on DOM's rty leases.  Quick chat with DOM suggests NO, probably not. 
    No development has been done on DOM leases because DOM gets avg. ~ 52% of revenue as their rty.  ~5.8 year reserve life, decline rate ~ 10%, paying .25-.30/Q so the yield is somewhere between 7% and 8.5% with 6 yrs. to go, plus a call on nat gas prices.
    Story dies not drive me wild.

  126. 126
    zman Says:

    RMD – did you see my 114?

  127. 127
    zman Says:

    Italy – let me know if you see this, and give us an update if you do? Best, stay safe.

    SSN ending at HOD, presentation on the deal will be key on Monday.

    Wrap will be out either early tomorrow or late Sunday, off to the lake.

    beerthirty

  128. 128
    RMD Says:

    yes.  My interest was the new mine WLT talked about:  it might have needed wells on DOM properties, ie, new reserves and production.

  129. 129
    isleworth Says:

    HK on sale at Dollar General

  130. 130
    zman Says:

    BP claims change … get paid?  can't sue.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100820/ap_on_bi_ge/us_gulf_oil_spill_claims

  131. 131
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    OMG.  Just read one of the Best (and certainly the Funniest) articles on investing… ever.  And it features BP.  So it's relevant to z's site.
     
    OK.  Eveyone else has probably already read it, as it's from the June 5th edition of the WSJ (which I just found, in an beach bag that I had packed up for a trip but never opened or unpacked).  Anyway, if you haven't read Scott Adams' (yes, the "Dilbert" guy) article, then you are in for more than a few laughts. 
     
    (Why did I think about SD, while reading this article… ??)
     
    http://online.wsj.com/article/NA_WSJ_PUB:SB10001424052748704025304575285000265955016.html#articleTabs%3Darticle

  132. 132
    ram Says:

    You need to be a subscriber to the WSJ.

  133. 133
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — it shouldn't… but, if the link is giving you problems, then google "Scott Adams" +"Betting on the Bad Guys".  Seems this article showed up in a number of places ('cuz it's so funny… and true… I reckon).

  134. 134
    Jerome Blank Says:

    EXXI, has one of the most interesting bullish charts at the moment, and it's been holding up well with the mkt volatlitity, currently holding its P&F buy signal above P&F longer term trendline support… on the daily , first support at the 100 day SMA at $17, first resistance at $18, if the macro mkt holds together and EXXI breaks out from the current daily consolidation ascending triangle, the pattern suggests an upside target at $22, MMR also looks interesting, reversing back into X's on the current sell signal on Friday, it's supportive that MMR broke out above the bearish forming descending traingle, so a retest at $11.17 would be a good  spot to try a long, MMR goes back on a P&F buy signal with the print of $12, targeting topside P&F trendline resistace $14-$14.50, charts updated…
     http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  135. 135
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Love ya, JB… will go vote now.

  136. 136
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #135, BOP, thank you much….

  137. 137
    zman Says:

    Thanks JB
    Wrap table will be included with the Monday post.

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