19
Aug

Thursday – Oil Review and Natural Gas Inventory Preview

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Market Sentiment Watch: The retail sector was setting a positive tone for the markets this morning prior to jobless claims. In energy land, things remain quiet. I spent a little time on some of the Bakken players last night, OK, just the ones I have an interest in but CLR really isn't my cup of tea at the moment and the table would have been too wide to stick in the post and they are really are boring me of late.

Ecodata Watch:

  • Jobless claims came in at 500,000 vs a forecast of 480,000.  This was the third worse than expected claims number in a row and the first to top the 500K mark in recent memory. 
  • We get Philly Fed at 10 am EST, forecast 7, last read 5.1.
  • Also at 10, we get leading indicators, forecast 0.2%, last read -0.2%.

BP Spill Watch:

  • Bottom kill to be done in early September. Safety first meets too many cooks in the kitchen.

In today's post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff  We Care About Today – Bakken stuff, ECT, VWSYF
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

  • $5400
  • 96% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades: None

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $5,100
  • 29% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • EOG – Added (20) August $95 calls for $0.39 with the stock down another 3%. High risk/potential trade as this seems overdone, on light volume.

Commodity Watch

Crude oil fell $0.35 to close at $75.42 yesterday. Early in the day, crude was off sharply on some poor API stats from Tuesday night. Then the EIA reported a mixed bag or a sort of OK report (see ZComment below for more on that). My sense is that crude will remain range bound until at least the September OPEC meeting. This morning crude is trading flattish.


Natural gas closed oscillated back down $0.03 to close at $4.24. We are range bounce between $4.00 and $4.50. This morning gas is trading off a penny.

  • Tropics Watch: Something potentially brewing south of Cuba, forecast shows 20% change of development into something more organized this weekend, could track towards the Gulf.


Natural Gas Inventory Preview:

 

Early Read On Natural Gas Storage:

My estimate is an injection of 22 to 27 Bcf.

  • Last Week: 37 Bcf Injection
  • Last Year:  54 Bcf Injection
  • 5 Year Average: 60 Bcf Injection
  • 10 year Hi: 89 Bcf Injection
  • 10 year Low: 22 Bcf Injection

The Street is at 31 Bcf.

Oil Inventory Preview:


ZComment: Gasoline and Distillate inventories continue to bloat. Distillate has turned higher in recent weeks from an already severely overstored situation and now gasoline has joined it, not as bloated but much more so than mid season. As gasoline gets this full at the end of the season it points to neither gas prices nor diesel / heating oil prices being of much support for oil this winter. The U.S. isn't the whole picture of course but it is still the biggest piece of the puzzle. If we have a warm winter, which is what the forecasts now call for, heating oil will provide even less support for crude. That leaves trucks on the road which briefly surged then dipped back to low levels this summer...not promising given the economy.

Crude

-

-

Gasoline

-

-

Distillates

-

-

Stuff  We Care About Today

Bakken Players

First some notes:

  • The names are growing into their valuations. On 2011 TEV / EBITDA, none of the names appear unreasonable valued. 
  • Each of the names is quite different both in terms of asset base and methodology (they range from operating just about everything in the case of BEXP and WLL to operating nothing in the case of NOG) and all the of the smaller ones are exhibiting enough growth to warrant what appears to be high multiples in the current year.
  • WLL is more diversified than the others here with significant non-Williston assets. This also explains it's high lifting costs which are the result of its two EOR projects in Texas. I included it because a) I own it, b) it's cheap, and c) it has a large and expanding position in the Bakken and Three Forks.
  • SSN is not on the list because it is more of a special situation name than it is a real Bakken player
  • I own the common of all of these names at the moment in the ZLT
  • I plan on sticking this table in the E&P section at upper left for future reference and updating.
  • I like this format and will adopt for some other small groups including the yield names and the offshore E&Ps.  
  • In the next edition I'll add a few more metrics including hedges. 


Other Stuff:

  • ECT follow up - essentially better than expected well results are driving better than expected production. I will release a model next week. 
  • HAL - More news from Iraq this time with NBR. Second bit of news out of the country in a week. A string of these announcements along with a rising NAM rig count could serve to catalyze the shares. 
  • Wind mill maker VWSYF fell 22.5% yesterday, still watching, starting to do a little work. It's probably going to be another bad week for the green energy ETFs of TAN and GEX. Order flow here still appears quite strong. 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • ECA - Upped to Outperform at MacQuarie
  • ESV - Cut to Neutral at Goldman.
  • Tudor - initiated on the coals with Buys on BTU, ACI (hmmm, no thanks), CNX and Holds on ANR and MEE

151 Responses to “Thursday – Oil Review and Natural Gas Inventory Preview”

  1. 1
    RMD Says:

    Good Bakken table.  Using your table for valuation per day of production.  I estimated '11 production by taking expected increase in '11 X 2Q10 rate (so these #s may be low):
    KOG $163 m/d
    NOG $149m/d
    OAS $129 m/d
    Bexp $146m/d
    WLL $83 m/d

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    RMD – thanks. I thought about putting a $ per current flowing barrel of production line in the table but it was late and TOSH.0 was on comedy central and yada, yada, yada. I don't use that metric often …. maybe I should. 

  3. 3
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TED (couldn't help it… had to look) at +18.4 bps
     
    Credit market just on the red side of neutral this morning.  Sold off with stock futures on the jobs claims number.
     
    If i hear one more "economist" talking about how the Govt needs to spend more "stimulous"…. my head will explode.  But, that's the thing about economists.  You can be dead wrong — for years and years — and STILL have a job.  wow.  How's THAT for "real world." 

  4. 4
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — really like the valuation table format.  good work.  helpful.  thank you.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    BOP – thank you, let me know if you have additions you'd like to see.

  6. 6
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    RMD's $ per flowing barrel is good… but only if the production is concentrated.  It's a good thing to look at in M&A… but doesn't seem to move the stock price much.

  7. 7
    ram Says:

    Is WLL the most expensive based on having the highest LOE per BOE?

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    BOP – right, kind of like a PV10 NAV, it only matters when it matters.

  9. 9
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    west's "a shark looks at SD" post last night was good.  i think he's got it….

  10. 10
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Ha.  Yah.  PV10 NAV.  Only the SEC seems to care about that number.

  11. 11
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HeadTrader thinks we fill the gap from the negative jobs report… then drift lower and close red today.
     
    However, he reserves the right to change his mind with Philly Fed # at 10

  12. 12
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HeadTrader can't figure out where 500,000 NEW jobless claims comes from.  He thinks ACORN has figured out a way to sign up for benefits as "new," once the old ones run out.  HT is cynical… but often correct.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    re 7. It is the least expensive based on cash flow valuation.

    The lifting costs are not a fair comparison because of their enhanced oil recovery programs in Texas, which require secondary and tertiary floods to increase oil recovery. If you look at names like DNR you will see the same thing. If I broke I could breakout the Williston from their other ops you could see that they are not out of line with the other Bakkens on that metric. I will put cash costs in the table (LOE + production taxes + G&A + Interest) and then show a cash margin. If all of that adds up to $20 or $25 per BOE and you are selling your production for $70 or so you can see just how economic all of these Bakken cats are. 

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    re 12.  Wow, tell him thanks for the laugh on that one.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    WLT outperforming other coals, was not picked up by TPH. In the immortal words of Nelson, "Ha, ha".

  16. 16
    RMD Says:

    I use $/flowing barrel because most M&A announcements mention current production, hence you get an updated data point.  Also since I like production/share, valuation/unit of production is a first cousin.

  17. 17
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    re 15.  THAT was funny.  πŸ˜‰

  18. 18
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    RMD — absolutely!  $/flowing barrel was one of the key M&A metrics at the old JSH.  Bankers love it too.  So, have to pay attention.

  19. 19
    ram Says:

    Re13, the last statement makes the most intuitive comparison for an ameteur.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    Bill – SD just came across the tape as a Downgrade by Morgan Stanley. From equal weight to under weight.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Nicky – got levels?

     

    West – I think you are spot on the SD comments. I wonder if CHK could be looking at SD as well, they have Delaware Basin stuff already. Probably not given their balance sheet but they too have suddenly stepped up to the alter of oil as well.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    JB comments from last night:

    Re: #147, ram…EOG, nice "tweezer" candle formation holding support at $92 on the daily , near term, if the mkt rallies I can see EOG three box reversing to $95, then testing 200 day SMA resistance at $98, $92 is the support level to watch, near term…

  23. 23
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Philly Fed   = wow-bad
     
    LEI = came in as exptd

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Leading indicators up 0.1%. Market not happy.

  25. 25
    RMD Says:

    West on SD:  don't like SD much, but this is a good way to look at SD; thanks.  Unfortunately, usually some (negative) stress is necessary to catalize action, some blood in the water if you will.  Post merger, cash flow/debt pressures are lifted for a while, and the BofD won't just respond to a falling stock price (I think).  Needs a hostile bid maybe? Maybe long-term XOM would have a time horizon long enough to value the WTO?  Just musing.

  26. 26
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Philly Fed expected at +7.0 (vs +5.1 last month).  Actually clocked in at -7.7

  27. 27
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: BEXP surprisingly strong last two days. See anything? Getting right to 50 day and 200 day MA. Should have some resistance.

  28. 28
    ram Says:

    Thanks JB.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    re 26. Once again pointing to the most obvious dense material that wasn't used in the junk shot. Ivory tower eggheads.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Tom – not really, think it was oversold for no good reason other than everyone detests capex increases and they did one and got lumped in with that crowd despite a stellar quarter and good initial results in a potential new core area.

  31. 31
    VTZ Says:

    Re Gold – This is the clean break up I was looking for by the end of the week and is very bullish. I now expect continuation up to ~1245 at which point I think we see our breather down for some consolidation before making new highs.
     
    Note that the HUI has been moving and is acting in confirmation of the move.

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    BOP – Wonder what HT is thinking now?

  33. 33
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HT = bounce a little then drift sideways… not worth trading at this point… all excitement is gone.

  34. 34
    Geno Says:

    BOP – late response to your question regarding Bottom Hole Temps:
    The shale trends from 6000'-8000' TVD w/ BHT's of 130-145° F or a temp grad of 8.6°/1000 ft
     

  35. 35
    Geno Says:

    Z- I wonder how much of the jobless claims is related to the offshore moratorium.

  36. 36
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Geno — thank you for getting that info.  It's not something one can easily look up.  Thank your colleague for me.

  37. 37
    jiveyjr Says:

    maybe if the 30 yr. goes to 1.5%, all this real estate I hold is worth what I paid…who knows?

  38. 38
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — must say… hat's off to the traders.  They kept the stock up high enough and long enough to make some good smackers on the Shoe.  Stock almost back to 2ndary pricing.

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    Computer died on me for a bit there…

    Gas storage 27 Bcf

    I was 22 to 27,

    Street was 31 Bcf

  40. 40
    VTZ Says:

    jivey – If the 30 year goes to 1.5% we probably all have bigger problems than just real estate.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    NG up 3 cents … yawn.

    Forecast for next week getting hotter now around these parts, back into the triple digits.

    Gas in storage is now

    5.8% below 2009 levels for this week of the year

    and

    is 7.0 % above the 5 year average.

    Nothing to get too excited about but at least the heat kept storage from running this summer. Will have projection revision based on remainder of injection season in a minute.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    BOP – remind to sell my position in whatever it is the next time we see a well production rate revision. BEXP did that and then bang, deal. KOG did it and bang, deal. If you go back and look at the deals in the Bakkens, nearly all of them have come on the day of or within a day of non quarter operations update or other random "good news" pr.  It happens all the time in E&P but is really prevalent with this bunch. 

  43. 43
    bill Says:

    Good comments on sd last night…
    I think they need a jv partner and pay down debt. They have too many acres assets that are sitting around not earning their keep.
    They are still viewed as a ng play , even though 70 % of revenue is oil
    and they presold 2. b in oil in the mid 80's

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Interesting to see WHX creeping higher, don't see all of the analysts making comments on the quarter yet. As a whole the yield group is pretty unscathed.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    Bob – On ECT, I got my answer on how exactly that incentive distribution vs target vs sub works from a guy who used to work for an MLP fund manager. I'm pretty confident in them earning the incentive level plus some for the next 12 months, which takes them north of 13% yield on current price. If I had to choose between them and say SJT, out in the Rockies, I'd almost surely go with the new one. 

    BP getting clipped for another dollar and rolling the chart over as the govt says the bottom kill is now weeks away. Suddenly it seems doing the static kill may have been a bad idea. I don't buy 1,000 barrels trapped that may get released but I don't get a vote on this one.

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    BALT giving back yesterday's surge.

    Bill, I use this page to check daily prices:

    http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp

    Do you have a better one for the chart, which is too long term and hard to see what is going on? Thanks.

  47. 47
    Bob Says:

    Z-Thanks for your follow up analysis. Could you tell from the prospectus what the assumptions are for future NG prices, say  in 2011-2013? I could not locate those figures

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Bob – will check and get back but I know it was in there through something like mid 2011 at least.

  49. 49
    blackgold39 Says:

    re BP – God bless, this is ridiculous

  50. 50
    Geno Says:

    Storm view from W. Africa
     
    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&REGION=AFRICA&SECTOR=Overview&AGE=Prev&INTERVAL=Most_Recent&SIZE=Full&PRODUCT=ir_color&SUB_PRODUCT=meteo8&PATH=CONUS/focus_regions/AFRICA/Overview/ir_color/meteo8&ANIM_TYPE=Instant&DISPLAY=Single

  51. 51
    RMD Says:

    MMR and EXXI talking early next week at Enercom.  Maybe MMR gives an preannounces an update  on BB Hill or Blackbeard East so they can talk about them freely.

  52. 52
    ram Says:

    RE 45, what if you had to choose amongst all the E&P yielders for long term consistent yield and potential equity growth?

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    Ram – my choice to date has been LINE and WHX

  54. 54
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Summary of comments made today from S. Richardson @ MS. Without capital discipline or resraint from producers, the investment case for US NG is impaired. Moving their '12 NG price from $6.50 to $5.50. A move to $4.50 would lower price expectations by 17%. Downgrading UPL, COG & SD. Upgrading DVN because it is the large cap E&P with the most significant potential for change.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Bob – the note for what I was looking at through mid 2011 was that they used the strip so they would have done the same in the out years as well.

    Here's the strip going out to 2022.

    http://www.barchart.com/futures/commodities/NG

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    Thanks Tom.

  57. 57
    ram Says:

    Thanks. As new opportunities come up, I repeat the same request so as to validate your current position/information.

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    You're welcome. That information is also contained on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT tab at upper left.

  59. 59
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    This blows my mind (what's left of it, anyway).  How do state governments think they can get away with this??  Oh.  Yeah.  The Federal Govt did… so, WTF, just throw in your claim with the rest of them.
     
    BP says "no response."  I would say "pound sand."
    ==================================================
     
     
    Florida Weighs Billing BP More Than $1 Billion to Plug Fund Gap
    2010-08-19 04:01:19.0 GMT
    γ€€
    By Jim Snyder
    Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) — Florida may send BP Plc a claim for more than $1 billion to close a budget gap after the largest U.S. oil spill as neighboring Gulf Coast states weigh their options.
    Steve Yerrid, a Tampa lawyer chosen by Florida Governor Charlie Crist to advise him on legal issues concerning the spill, said the state may seek an initial payment in the "lower range" of billions of dollars to make up for lost tax revenue.
    "We’re hoping rather than jobs being sacrificed or services to Floridians being lost, that we can develop some type of dialogue to get interim relief until state claims can be properly calculated," Yerrid said in an Aug. 17 telephone interview.
    States that filed claims for funds spent or revenue lost because of BP’s spill in the Gulf of Mexico would be joining idled fishermen and empty hotels struggling because tourists stayed away. Florida would ask London-based BP to pay it separately from the $20 billion fund the company set up to handle claims so the state doesn’t have to compete with its own citizens, Yerrid said.
    "We desperately need an interim payment, just like the small-business owners that are just hanging on," Representative Kathy Castor, a Florida Democrat, said yesterday in a telephone interview.
    BP didn’t respond to a request for comment.
    Alabama’s Claim
    Alabama submitted a $148 million claim to BP last week for revenue losses due to falling tax receipts in Mobile and Baldwin counties along the Gulf Coast, Todd Stacy, press secretary to Republican Governor Bob Riley, said yesterday. He said he expects more claims to follow.
    "There is literally no facet of the economy that hasn’t been affected by the catastrophe along the Gulf Coast," Stacy said in a phone interview.
    Alabama Attorney General Troy King, a Republican, said last week that he is suing BP, Transocean Ltd. and Halliburton Co.
    for damage caused by the spill. Transocean owned the BP-leased rig that sank after exploding, and Halliburton provided cement for the well.
    Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood, a Democrat, said he wasn’t aware of plans in his state to push BP for emergency checks.
    "But we are always open to discussions about partial payments from people who owe us money," Hood said in an e-mail.
    Michael DiResto, a spokesman for the Louisiana Division of Administration, which is tallying the economic impact the spill has had on the state, had no immediate comment.
    $5.5 Billion Gap
    Amy Baker, chief economist for the Florida Legislature, said the state projects a $5.5 billion budget gap in the fiscal year that will start on July 1. Analysts will update the estimate to incorporate declining tax and tourism revenue, she said.
    Yerrid said he has discussed his proposal with Castor and Democratic U.S. Senator Bill Nelson and was seeking a meeting with the Obama administration to win its support.
    Florida is unlikely to have a final bill ready to present to BP before the budget squeeze hits, which is why an emergency payment is needed, Yerrid said.
    BP and Florida have already clashed on what the company should pay.
    The company turned down a request June 30 from Crist, an independent running for the U.S. Senate, for $50 million for a new marketing campaign to assure tourists that Florida’s beaches aren’t tainted by oil.
    Tourism Marketing
    BP did provide $7 million for advertising to help restore tourism in the state’s northwest Panhandle, where tar washed up on beaches for a time. The company also gave Florida $25 million earlier for a marketing campaign to entice wary vacationers and sent $50 million in block grants to pay for spill-mitigation efforts.
    BP also announced Aug. 16 that it would provide $52 million to the four affected Gulf states for mental-health programs, including $3 million to Florida’s Department of Children and Families.
    Yerrid said the state may also seek payments directly from BP to compensate for lost tax revenue from businesses whose claims are rejected by Kenneth Feinberg, the Washington lawyer who is administering the $20 billion Gulf Coast Claims Facility.
    Feinberg, who takes over payment requests from individuals and businesses on Aug. 23, said in an interview last week that a hotel "50 miles inland" is unlikely to have a valid claim.
    Feinberg won’t handle local and state government claims, although he and BP have said those requests will come from the same $20 billion account.

  60. 60
    Bob Says:

    55: Got it, Tnx

  61. 61
    nifkin Says:

    any SPX levels were watching?

  62. 62
    VTZ Says:

    BOP – 59 is obviously why BP is trading where it is. How can you argue with Florida asking for some amount though? The problem is how to price it. The amount of claims is going to be mind-boggling.

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    Nicky said 1069 was critical support

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    V – Maybe the bill should be split  50/50 with the Feds who allowed drilling in the Gulf in the first place. Funny how the Fed's are blameless on this one.

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    NG down 6 cents now

    Crude down a buck with the weak S&P

    Feels like the pin is in.

  66. 66
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    VTZ — when the govt allows the sewer system to degrade to the point where it undermines the street and collapses the pavement and then road crews tie up the street for 2 months to fix it…. you think they "compensate" the business who lose all their biz b/c no one can get into their parking lot?  ha. 
     
    This stuff is just FUBAR.  Where you do stop?  Who pays for what?  What about all the tax and royalty revenues that were received from drilling companies over the years?  Exactly WHO put the moratorium in place (in spite of industry experts recommending otherwise)?  Who got people all riled up and scared with pictures of sea birds from the Valdez oil spill?  Who whipped this stuff into a frenzy??  Was it BP???
     
    Can I file a claim because my mother-in-law is not going to buy me as nice a Christmas present this year because she lives in Texas and sells stuff to tourists?
     
    Where does it stop?  Just FUBAR, folks.  And JMHO.

  67. 67
    bill Says:

    54
    >Summary of comments made today from S. Richardson @ MS. Without capital discipline or resraint from producers, the investment case for US NG is impaired. Moving their '12 NG price from $6.50 to $5.50. A move to $4.50 would lower price expectations by 17%. Downgrading SD
    see what i mean.. they view sd as ng even though ward has morphed into an oil company and written the ng assets down 80 %

  68. 68
    Nicky Says:

    Morning all.  Well I said the cycles would top out Wednesday/Thursday and then down into around the 23rd.  Did I think we would see such a big move down?  No I did not!  If we can't hold Mondays lows then we are looking at next support at 1052/1056.

  69. 69
    AAA Says:

    I'm having trouble seeing why Florida has any claim at all stemming from lost t ax revenues.  Presumably, these tax revenues would have come from businesses affected by the spill.  Any recovery those business receive would be subject to Florida taxes, however.  Maybe there is an issue regarding applying sales tax to payments from BP, but the total amount BP has to pay should not change because of Florida's claim. 
    This whole business would convince me, if I ran an E&P, to play hardball in a similar situation, like Exxon did in the Valdez case.  Drag it out as long as possible, deny liability,  litigate every claim fully, etc.  How worse off could they have been?

  70. 70
    VTZ Says:

    Catch-22 my friends. You live in lawsuit/it's-someone-else's-fault nation.
    You might be able to submit a claim about your mother-in-law. Depends how far down the line they go. The floodgates are open.
     
    Re 64 – It's always easiest to say, they let us do it. Technical and Procedural responsibility is not the function of the government. There are clear failures by BP here.
     
    Maybe the blame should be split with the government for allowing it in the first place. It might be easiest  that way, seeing as printing a few billions regularly on treasuries doesn't seem to phase anyone.

  71. 71
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    It sure "phases" ME.  It's NOT the Government's money… it's MY MONEY.

  72. 72
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    OK.  Sorry.  Back to your regularly-scheduled program… All Energy, All the Time.
     
    Apologies for the interruption.

  73. 73
    bill Says:

    I read people in GOM where filing for fishing permits to claim they are now unemployed fisherman
    BP should have played hard ball from the start. They made all the "right PR moves" and still get slimed day after day

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    Bill – saw that too. I also saw BP is pursuing that and several of the cheats have been arrested. I'm a little concerned that as Feinberg takes he will just be concerned with getting $ out as fast possible.

  75. 75
    cargocult Says:

    VTZ- assuming that negligence can be proven on BP's part then plaintiffs can claim damages for those harms that are the proximate cause of the negligence. Cleanup for oil soaked beaches, yes. Loss of business due to low tourist traffic, maybe. Could BP have for seen that the Sunset Bar in Tampa would lose business if they did not use do care in the conduct of their business? Pretty hard to prove. How about a rise in the price of gas by $.05 due to reduced supply of crude? Maybe Obama can get compensation for BP putting him in an awkward political situation. The test in many legal situations is "reasonableness" and that is often decided by a jury who may or may not be reasonable themselves. Sadly, Americans have come to believe that they have been granted perfect lives by their creator and any activity by a solvent party that undermines that condition requires compensation. That said, BP may have been negligent.

  76. 76
    bill Says:

    re 46
    to answer your question
     this is a good site
    http://www.freightinvestorservices.com/
     

     
    Spot
    August
    Q4
    Cal 11

    Capesize 4TC
    30,344
    26,500
    31,850
    26,375

    Panamax 4TC
    23,859
    23,250
    27,125
    22,100

    Supramax 6TC
    20,623
    19,750
    24,375
    18,800

    Handysize 6TC
    15,333
    15,125
    17,500
    14,438

    you get the daily "spot"price by ship class ie the daily cash price..they also show current month to dat average anf the futures ie "ffa" for q4 and next year full year
    http://www.freightinvestorservices.com/market-information/historical-prices
    has graphs for where we have been
     
    you can also sign up for a free daily newsletter at
    http://www.freightinvestorservices.com/market-information/reports

  77. 77
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    VTZ —  #71 was not aimed at you.  Just my cry-out in the dark.

  78. 78
    bill Says:

    sorry about the formatting in 76

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    Thanks Bill, will take a look

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    DOM out with a $0.27quarterly dividend (about an 8.5% yield). This was a Dominion grantor trust whose CBM assets in the Black Warrior Basin have been bought by WLT.   This one has no tax liability/reporting (according to the company) when in an IRA. Interesting to me because WLT has been expanding both their coal mining and their coalbed methane production in Alabama. That and I'm always on the hunt for more yield names to look at.

  81. 81
    md Says:

    I like your bakken layout.
    When the Gov't is at the trough you know that tort reform is long overdue.
    At this rate $20BN will be a tiny drop in the gulf.

  82. 82
    bill Says:

    79
    i also like going here daily to get whats going on real time, daily column
    http://www.tradewinds.no/drycargo/article565336.ece

  83. 83
    bill Says:

    this is a good weekly report on tanker rates
    http://www.pareto.no/en/PF-Bassoe/Weekly-Reports/2010.aspx
    Rates are weak now as people that were storing oil on tankers sold the oil into the market
    Storage and rates will go up when the futures market provides incentives to do so and vice versa–usually this is the slow time of year with rates moving up in winter

  84. 84
    ram Says:

    ZMAN, as you find opportunities like DOM, could you put them in a slot with just the information that you have in 80.  DOM could be a nice IRA candidate.

  85. 85
    blackgold39 Says:

    Re 74 – I saw Feinberg talk pretty extensively on this topic on CSPAN the other day.  I feel like he will be pretty judicious about the fund, but BP will have to put their foot down eventually on broad claims from states about budget shortfalls. 
    All of those states had budgets in the shitter long before this crises of opportunity ever came about, and sooner rather than later, BP will have to become more hard-nosed, or they will just be bled to death by ambulance chasers and ambitious governors.

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    re 84. Will do. I like it when they keep it simple. ECT is not but probably worthy of more work. Stock is stuck at $20, I don't think people are paying a lot of attention right now.

  87. 87
    blackgold39 Says:

    All told, I am more concerned that BP will actually be fleeced worse by the govt than by any individual claimants.

  88. 88
    bill Says:

    obama put a 3 month ban on eggs, lol
    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_A/threadview?m=tm&bn=1612&tid=84884&mid=84884&tof=2&frt=2

  89. 89
    Nicky Says:

    Update – we need to get above 1080 into the close.  Above 1075 and 1080 may attract…

  90. 90
    Jerome Blank Says:

    I have 1075 as key resistance…

  91. 91
    Jerome Blank Says:

    1075 S&P futures that is…

  92. 92
    ram Says:

    JB, now that EOG is below 92, I lost where I was going with this, sorry.

  93. 93
    ram Says:

    Oh yeah, what happens after it falls bellow being a possible tweezer?

  94. 94
    Pati Says:

    CIGX watch:
    8/13 charged to credit card
    8/18 10pm email confirm order received in warehouse; w/b notified when shipped.
    Doesn't look like CIGX not on track yet.

  95. 95
    Pati Says:

    CIGX on track yet.

  96. 96
    Jerome Blank Says:

    KOG…posted a 5 min intraday chart…KOG broke down below its short term descending triangle, resistance from here is $2.85, short term downside support based on the pattern is $2.60, which is a retest of the 8/12 low, there is longer term P&F support at $2.50-$2.60.  If bullish, this zone should be considered…

  97. 97
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Pati — i sent an email to the website and to Star's IR person.  I ordered on 8/10 and still have not received even an email confirm.  I may have to threated CIGX with another Bob-Attack, if I don't get some action soon. 
     
    Weird.  But, it IS an initial roll-out.  Still, players involved have all been touted as "first rate!" 
     
    hmmmmmmmmmm….

  98. 98
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    "threaten"

  99. 99
    Nicky Says:

    Oil is going to need to move up imo JB to get this market moving.  Saw someone saying just now there was some unusually high buying volumes in RIG.

  100. 100
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #93, EOG, ram…generally the strategy is to cover longs below a break of the tweezer lows, $92 is now short term resistance, the next best major support level I can see is $88, I've updated the daily chart, if EOG holds onto the $91 handle, next resistance target on a macro mkt recovery is $95, it's a bit of a gamble on today's close and tomorrows trade  

  101. 101
    Pati Says:

    97 BOP, hopefully with our feedback they will get it streamlined.
    I sent email to IR and website.
    REALLY looking forward to getting them.

  102. 102
    zman Says:

    Toying with a model for BALT.

    JB – would you look at VWSYF? Looks to me to be bounceworthy  if it holds the end of June low.

  103. 103
    redjack Says:

    BOP..maybe they should have used Amazon to handle the fullfilment…

  104. 104
    Pati Says:

    103 — agree.  No need to reinvent the wheel.
     

  105. 105
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #102 Vesta Wind? for some reason, stocks charts does not recognize, pink sheet? IS the ticker correct?

  106. 106
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Pati — i'd like to think that the delays are due to "overwhemling response."  But it's really too soon to draw conclusions on anything.  I honestly thought we would see a nice pop — that would hold — on the announcement of the rollout.  However, it looks like we will have to wait for the results of the test marketing.  Company has said in the past that they would look to the first 3 months of the launch for demand information to design their production runs for 2011.  So, guess that is the next major milestone.
     
    The company has a LOT of reasons to get the stock up and over $3… and then hold for at least 30 days.  There are a number of warrants struck at $1.50 (if i recall correctly) that can be called at $3.00.  This would provide the next level of funding for Star… and without any more dilution (as these warrants are already counted in the "fully-diluted" share count).
     
    Hang in there. 
     
    Signed,
    In Search of Inner Peace…. Inner Peace… In-in-innnnnner peeeeeace.  πŸ˜‰

  107. 107
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #103 and 104 — whaddaya guys think this IS… a SNUGGIE or something??  This is CLASSY stuff.
     
    πŸ˜‰

  108. 108
    Pati Says:

    106, BOP, maybe it is time for a lullaby since we don't have our candies to calm us down?

  109. 109
    redjack Says:

    BOP…by the way, how are the mice doing?

  110. 110
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I know i shouldn't mention this… but, i DO happen to have a song in my head, that i can't seem to exorcise.  Not sure it's calming, tho…
     

  111. 111
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    The mice are busy at their computers, pounding away at the "send" key, trying to get their CigRx orders filled.  Mice are considering holding a sit-in in Ms. Sara Troy Machir's office…

  112. 112
    andy Says:

    bop –   i think u're taking the CIGX mess up way too lightly.  as a stockholder i am highly pissed at the inefficiency shown so far.  i don't care whose fault it is, it goes back to CIGX  to fix .  if by some small chance you're right, and this is caused by "overwhelming response "  what in the hell would be wrong sending an e-mail stating that to orderees(is that a word)?  anyway, still love u,  just want the bob-attack to begin!~!!  would love to hear the CEO's excuse.

  113. 113
    redjack Says:

    andy…I'll second that

  114. 114
    zman Says:

    JB – that ticker is correct, but no sweat, I probably won't do it.

  115. 115
    PackMan Says:

    The beatdown in EOG is ticking me off !

  116. 116
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Just got off the phone with the CigRx customer service hotline.  Wow.  What an experience.  There was a lot of noise in the background (but i'm not a heavy user of phone-based ordering, so maybe this is typical).  I asked the guy about all the noise and he said they were "very busy" and that they were "taking a lot of order for CigRx."  I asked if he was only doing CigRx and he said yes.  I told him I was curious, b/c I was a shareholder, as well as wanting to order.  He kinda shut up then.  Anway, the order desk is based in Van Nuys, California… not some guys sharing a phone in Mumbai.  Anyway, they had NO RECORD of my order from Aug 10th.  I'd get mad… but, whatever.  Told him about it… and will continue to pass this info along to the company.
     
    Yes, I'm p*ssed about it.  Not taking it lightly.  But, there are things i can do… and things i can't.  I can't fix this, i can only pass along what's happening to mngmt.  And i am NOT going to sell my stock.

  117. 117
    ram Says:

    I'll pipe in to since I'm a stock owning member of the CIGX club.  I have not ordered, but have read while others here have tried.  I understand that this is not the second coming or a miracle drug, but the stumbling out the gate on something that is special is irresponsible for CIGX.  I can't believe that CIGX management had little to no idea of the potential poor first impression that could take place with the current system.

  118. 118
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I also asked the order guy if he had tried CigRx.  He said "no" that he doesn't smoke.  I told him that you don't have to be a smoker to benefit from the zennnnnnnnnn.  He mumbled something about "yes" and knowing that it "did something to your brain" (or something along those lines).  Interesting to hear that he didn't know more about the product.  But, then again, he's just a guy… stuck in a room with a lot of other (loud) people, taking CigRx orders…. when he could be out at the beach.

  119. 119
    ram Says:

    Thanks BOP for the update.  I'm not going to sell my stock either.  CIGX management has shown that they came unprepared to their own party.

  120. 120
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — hear ya.  Bottom line, if this stuff works (and it does), people will soon forget the lump-ridden, highly-irritating, very-unprofessional, blood-boiling launch.  And just reorder.
     
    And the mice will sway gently in the background and sing softly under their littly mousy-breath.  And all will be right with the World.

  121. 121
    Bob Says:

    CigRx: I was assured that any orders pre-dating Aug 14 were shipped no later than Tues, Aug 17, some by expedited mail.   Next contact will include GSW besides InVentiv and Thomas H Lee Partners.
     
    From 8Q:
     
    Item 7.01. Regulation FD Disclosure
    In late March 2010, Star Scientific, Inc. and its wholly owned subsidiary Rock Creek Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (collectively, the “Company”), entered into a Sales and Marketing Agreement (the “Agreement”) with Gerbig, Snell, Weisheimer Advertising LLC (“GSW”), a subsidiary of inVentiv Health, Inc. Under the Agreement, GSW will provide sales and marketing services to the Company relating to CigRx™. CigRx™ is a non-nicotine nutraceutical that is intended to temporarily reduce the desire to smoke. The Company is currently working toward the launch of CigRx™. This partnership was arranged for by McColl Partners, which was founded by Hugh McColl, former Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Bank of America.

  122. 122
    zman Says:

    Just looking around, volumes very light in the afternoon, no buyers, weak hands sellers pretty absent too.

  123. 123
    ram Says:

    Oh no, they have a Weisenheimer on their staff!!!!!!!!!!!!1

  124. 124
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Until then… we can all sing…
     
    "Pants on the ground
    Pants on the ground,
    Lookin' like a fool with your pants on the ground"
     


  125. 125
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Bob — did you get your order yet?

  126. 126
    bill Says:

    do institutions drop stocks under 5
    re sd

  127. 127
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Actually, the original agreement between Star and inVentiv dates back to Nov 2009.  But it wasn't finalized until March 2010, as inVentiv created a whole new subdivision, just to handle the CigRx product.  FWIW.

  128. 128
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    bill — #126 some do.  it's written into their fund guidelines.  however, all funds have some percentage (usually 5%) of "non-compliant" stuff they can hold… just because stuff like this happens.
     
    However, HF's don't like it when stocks drop below $5… makes your margin requirements go all catty-whampus.

  129. 129
    Bob Says:

    125: No. Did get an e-mail that order was received day after ordering, but credit card still not charged 

  130. 130
    tomdavis12 Says:

    126 Bill: They might not drop coverage but it can become non-marginable.

  131. 131
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EOG — there is an old saying in the biz that "a 90-dollar stock is a 100-dollar stock."  Meaning that — for some reason — stocks don't seem to stick at 90.  They either drop to 80…. or rise to 100.  I'm just sayin……

  132. 132
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Bob — Van Nuys Order Dude said that it takes "24 to 48 hrs for your charge card to go through"… and they don't ship until it does.  So…. things that make you go "hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm."

  133. 133
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Phone number for VanNuys Order Dude and his Buddies = 800-289-8651.
     
    They should be able to tell you your order status by the phone number associated with your order.

  134. 134
    Bob Says:

    CigRX: From a smokers forum: One member ordered Aug 6 and had his Aug 12.  Problem was they charged his cc $140+.  After a few phone calls he got a confirmation e-mail that he would get a refund. He had to direct the order taker and his supervisor to the web-site to see the 3 for deal.  Yet another "rookie mistake"?

  135. 135
    Nicky Says:

    will only be bullish if we can close above 1080.

  136. 136
    Geno Says:

    BOP #124, you think the POTUS is living the song?

  137. 137
    andy Says:

    just e-mailed sara macin at CIGX.  Big surprise – out of office till monday.  telling people 24-48 hrs for credit cards when we all know 5-10 seconds is correct

  138. 138
    VTZ Says:

    RE 135 – Hurry more stimulus!

  139. 139
    bill Says:

    sd at 4.32, lol and still falling 5 % per day
    only 4 more dollars of downside is the good news

  140. 140
    Geno Says:

    Good news for the gulf residents, the "Hoffmiester" David Hasselhoff is hosting a TV Tributer to the victims of the spill. Haven't these people suffered enough?

  141. 141
    bill Says:

    from today ccall nm re drybulk cape rate outlook etc>
     
    Cape [time] charter rates dropped from about $59,000 per day on June2 to $12,600 on July 23. The market has rallied to over $30,000 since then. Volatility in the BDI was the result of a confluence of normal seasonal easing of cargos out of India and Latin America, combined with the Chinese slowdown in construction, which had a negative effect on both iron ore and coal imports. Fixtures of vessels to import coal to China decreased slightly going into the summer. With China becoming the world’s largest energy consumer last year, it is expected to be a net importer of coal for the foreseeable future.
    The recent surge in Cape rates seem due to restocking of iron ore as spot prices fell from a high of $186 earlier this year to $116 in July. A reduction in loan availability in China, intended to reduce speculation in an overheated housing market, caused a decrease in car sales and consumer spending, which led to a decrease in iron ore spot prices. We believe that lower iron ore quarterly contract prices, and the normally expected first half 2011 Chinese loan growth, will set the stage for improvement later this year and into next year, driven up by pent up demand.

  142. 142
    bill Says:

    the bdi for tomorrow wil be up again because its based on todays fixtures.
     
    The supramax segment was very strong  (egle) with many fixtures in excess of 25 k a day

    http://www.tradewinds.no/drycargo/article565336.ece

  143. 143
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Bob — thank you for all your updates.  I'll watch my cc charges carefully over the next "24 to 48 hours."  sheesh.
     
    All that said, it's probably time for people to talk to the Big Guy.  Paul Perito is the best one, as he is COO of Star.  (804) 527-1970.

  144. 144
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    by the way… did anyone in the Smoker's Forum have any results to report???

  145. 145
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Geno — #136… darn, dude!  Now i've got this IMAGE in my head that i can't get RID OF.   Thanks!!
     
    πŸ˜‰

  146. 146
    zman Says:

    Bastardi tomorrow to tell all about why the cane season has been a dud so far but why it will roar to life at summer's end.

  147. 147
    Bob Says:

    BOP:  here is link to forum. It is for electronic cigs, but these guys apparently try everything!
    http://www.e-cigarette-forum.com/forum/general-e-smoking-discussion/113536-watch-out-cigrx-over-billing.html

  148. 148
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Bob — thanks for the link.  Interesting.
     

  149. 149
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    CIO at SD just purchased 5,000 shares on the open market today at $4.50.  CIOs hear EVERYthing at a company…

  150. 150
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP, that's probably tradeable news. Wonder if we see a string of Form 4s there? Their phones must be ringing off the way. Maybe a good boring Friday for potential Merger Monday trade.

  151. 151
    bill Says:

    Im starting to wonder if ward gave his staff money to make buys. They all happened in the same week.
    Anyways, I heard Cramer piling on saying sell so everybody and their mother has said sell Sandridge.
    Why didnt they say that when it was 15?
    If i could have a "do- over" i d buy bonds and short common until we have a regime change
     

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