Market Sentiment Watch: Energy land this week has been captivated by moves in the broad market first and oil second. Natural gas, which has been flat through this last little fall doesn't even get honorable mention. Oil has been falling technically since someone bearing a striking resemblance to myself mentioned that it probably didn't belong up in the $80+ seats just yet. This has weighed heavily on the oilier names despite the fact that they really didn't move up that much as oil did. This is pretty typical action. Second quarter earnings are over and the verdict was a resounding yawn. I'll have the Orange Charts out next week to reflect the quarter and in many cases, the raised level of capital spending. Spending is up on oil and liquids rich projects and flat to slightly lower on those programs purely targeting natural gas. Gas supply will remain robust through at least mid next year as many programs can't be cut for fear of expiring leasehold in the shales and many more liquids rich programs will also produce associated gas. More perspective on the quarter and the "so now what" of it all in the Monday post.
BP Spill Watch:
- Seal Test. BP running tests to see if further work on Macondo is necessary. Decision expected sometime today.
- From Reuters ~ Thad Allen, the Obama administration's point man on the oil spill, said at a news conference that an earlier effort to temporarily plug the well may have had the unintended effect of creating a permanent seal..
- I continue to think BP and the U.S. government would like to see the lease sold to another oil company, with the relief wells intact to be used as producers as an incentive for the buyer.
- BP also settled 270 citations at its Texas City refinery.
Moratorium Watch: Texas Sues The Feds.
- Texas AG Greg Abbot ~ "Under federal law, affected states are guaranteed the right to participate in offshore drilling-related policy decisions, but the Obama administration did not bother to communicate, coordinate or cooperate with Texas"
- The Department of the Interior responded to the suit by saying Secretary Salazar's moratorium is "simply common sense".
- Oh, the arrogance of power being displayed here (along with the twisting of expert recommendations) is astounding in light of the current economic backdrop and the number of jobs this sabotages.
Ecodata Watch: In Line.
- Retail sales for July came in at 0.4% vs 0.5% expected
- Retail sale ex autos came in at 0.2% vs 0.2% expected
- CPI of 0.3% vs 0.3% expected
- Core CPI of 0.1% vs 0.1% expected
- Consumer sentiment due out at 10 am EST, forecast of 68.8 vs 67.8 last month ... this one gives me pause
In Today's Post:
- Holdings Watch
- Commodity Watch
- Natural Gas Storage Review
- Stuff We Care About Today
- Odds & Ends
Holdings Watch ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio)
- $6,750
- 86% Cash
- Yesterday’s Trades: None
ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)
- $3,800
- 5% Cash
- Yesterday’s Trades:
- OAS – Added (2) OAS August $15 calls for $2.20, with the stock just over $17, on the high side of the mid and after experimenting with a number of strikes this morning. The 2Q was better than expected (see site for details) and the conference call is later this morning. It is probably still early to play options here as they are about as illiquid at the moment as you get, even for a new issue. So I’m only dipping a toe. I continue to own a full position in the common in the ZLT.
Commodity Watch
Crude oil fell $2.28 to close at $75.74 yesterday. Crude has fallen $5.80 in the last 3 sessions. I would expect the selling to end with crude still in the $70s, probably between $72 and $74. The front month contract now looks like this. This morning crude is trading flat.
- OPEC Watch: The Cartel bumped its estimate for world crude demand by 100,000 bopd to 1.05 mm bopd, up 1.2%, to 85.5 mm bopd. Growth comes from the same sources as has been the case of late: China, India, Middle East, Latin America. The group left it's 2011 growth estimate unaltered at 86.56 mm bopd (also a 1.05 mm bopd addition).
Natural gas eased $0.3 to close at $4.30 yesterday after the EIA reported a slightly bigger than expected storage injection (see below). Gas is likely near the low end of its range for the very near term but the coming shoulder season is likely to sub $4 numbers unless we see hurricane related shut ins. This morning gas is trading flat.
- Tropics Watch: All quiet on the tropical front.
- LNG Watch: Forecaster Waterborne LNG now sees August imports to the U.S. of 0.86 Bcfgpd, down 22% YoY.
Natural Gas Storage Review
ZComments: You can see a little divergence forming in Chart A below between current storage and year ago levels. Not going to get too excited about that but it does help keep gas from spiraling lower as the heat wave of 2010 takes its toll on injections. After the heat ends I expect a fattish end to the injection season with peak storage coming in at a range of 3,700 to 3,800 Bcf.
Stuff We Care About Today
KOG priced secondary:
- 25 mm shares (a whopping 21% of outstanding)
- @ $2.75
- raises close to $65 mm net of fees and closes a funding gap that was apparent by year end.
- No debt
- Shiny new revolver remains untapped
- I'm not a fan of dilution of this magnitude. I'm also not a fan of management's deliberately pointing to one source of financing knowing that the other is the route they plan to take. Results here have not been overtly stellar either. The stock performance however has been good. I just would prefer than management hold its shares a little more dearly.
- OK, sour grapes over this deal off my chest. No worry about a future equity offering for quite some time and my last KOG sale was at $3.74 so it's probably time for me to add some back.
Other Stuff
Seadrill To Buy Allis Chalmers (ALY)for $890 mm
- Small oilfield service, drilling and completion firm with ops in the U.S. and Latin America taken out for an 85% premium
- Not surprised to see this one go given the recent deterioration in the share price.
- I am surprised that it didn't go soon and that names like CRR and CLB are still standalone entities.
Enercom is next week - most of our highly trafficked names will be presenting.
I'll have a new Catalyst List out on Monday ...
... and the Orange Charts out later in the week, updated for the 2Q stats
SD looks like a bottom fish candidate at this point.
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch: Nada
You cannot be serious watch:
http://www.businessinsider.com/banker-fired-for-typing-wheres-a-good-strip-club-into-bloomberg-help-terminal-2010-8
Analyst Watch:
CXO – raised to Outperform at BMO
Blackstone buying Dynegy.
Do not underestimate what this means… as Dynegy is publicly-traded.
Relatively cheap credit is available to large borrowers who view stocks as undervalued here. If individuals won’t buy stocks, private equity firms will (and flip them back out to us, a couple of yrs later, at 200% gains). Also, expect to see companies themselves announce more stock-buy-backs.
Credit is available. And it’s cheap. Maybe not “everyone” can borrow… but enough can to make a difference. Thing is, they are not borrowing to invest in capex/expansion plans. They (private equity, companies) are borrowing to buy stock. [Except for KOG, of course… but maybe, this time, they finally got out from being “behind the wheel / a day late, a dollar short.” Anyway, for those who bought stock y’day… congrats.]
Good morning Z.
Blackstone buying Dynegy.
Any implications for the group today ?
pondering…. Wonder if the domain name “KenSalazarIsABigFatDummy” is taken yet?
BOP … IBM also buying someone today.
DYN had taken a pounding all year, so the BX purchase is not much of a premium over the debt (small equity valuation).
Good morning Z-
Two more days of plays, then off to Nothern Ontario for some wilderness canoeing. Ah, it is a tough life.
Re SD- was the insider significant and who?
How do you rate their management?
Who do you think has the best management? Top 3.
PackMan — i hear you on the premium. Same could be said for ALY. But the point is, they are being bought now. When the individual investor refuses to buy stocks, and stocks fall, the private guys and other companies step in. It is a neon-lighted-sign… and we have only ourselves to blame, if we ignore it.
BOP/Pack – saw it, almost mentioned but not really my area, more of a stock market thing.
Re SD, there were 3 of them that I saw, one was a director, 100K buy full price paid on the 12th, took him to 300K.
Rate their management: capable but had eyes bigger than their stomach and were unlucky with gas prices. I think ARD was a minor coup for them and step in the right direction but I still think that that is a lot of debt and they are still too gassy. But it may be worth a trade.
Top 3 managements:
APC or EOG for 1 and then a number of mid cap names with NFX at the top of the list.
re 8. Absolutely get your point on that.
CIGX blogger…
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/576542-onthemarket/87335-the-ultimate-test-on-me-ive-tried-it-and-cigrx-works
z — sorry… didn’t mean to get all heavy-handed on ya.
People say that “credit” is tight. It’s not. Some consumer stuff might be tight (but that is probably a good thing). For companies who really need the money, it’s there…. in the debt market (equity market still tough… but seeing some large IPOs get done… this is also a neon sign firmly attached to a taaaaaall signpost… if we care to see it).
BG 39 – I think BP may shine today if they go ahead and say that Macondo is plugged. Nice cost savings over continuing with the relief wells and less risk, no chance of falling on an initial missed intersection, etc.
Go Texas for suing the Feds over the moratorium!
KOG lifting pre market as the shares from the deal hit the market.
OK, OK… one caveat. You have to be a BIG Company to borrow in the public markets. So, if you are a small company (and 70% of them are), it’s not Easy-Peasy to get a bank loan. But that will follow. These things start at the top, then work their way down. It always does.
re 12 – hey, I was just agreeing with you.
#5… amazed, it’s available.
and yet obamaclinton2012.com is taken.
#17 yeah… because our recent Foreign Policy Moves have been SO BRILLIANT. ha. Don’t get me started… going for more coffee.
SSN – Questions regarding Goshen County in with management. Delta on the answer is about $10 mm so will let ya know. Mulling adding back a portion of my shares sold higher.
Market open, slight drop at the start as expected, has the feel of a bounce day.
Credit markets firmly in the green.
TED weighs in at +21.4 bps this morning.
sellers is a hedge fund manaager
2 largest positions
contango &
pxri
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Premier-Exhibitions-Inc-pz-4126337301.html?x=0&.v=1
Yield names getting a bounce, especially LINE. Makes a lot of sense to me. WHX looking at $22, probably builds into the x-div date on Aug 19.
OAS chipping higher, given the ugly way the options trade I’ll be more than likely to punt on an significant rally. Anyone see a broker note there yet?
Bill – those are your two largest or a fund’s two largest?
Noting TISDZ heating up, think to add to my offshore holdings again soon (adding back EXXI most likely but I looking at all the names right now. I really think they move up into the Fall. Thinking the market plays it simple and takes the biggest beaten down names up the most, so maybe ATPG and SGY are good candidates.
ZTRADE – ZCAT – EOG
EOG – Added (10) August $100 Calls for $0.52 with the stock at $95.15. Stock has fallen with the market and oil. Catalyst is that I expect a snapback in both in the short term and the name has been highly correlated with oil of late. This one will be pretty quick.
JB – can you take a fresh look at BALT? Thanks.
HeadTrader says his gut is telling him to short the mrkt right here, right now. With a stop-loss at HOD.
However, that self-same gut is telling him that the SPX will close +7 today.
His caveat = “i am a trader and have the right to change opinion in 10 seconds…”
U of Mich Consumer Conf out in a few… HT is saying he would be flat, ahead of the number… ‘cuz it’s a “coin flip” here.
XEC, Cimarex upgraded to buy from hold at Lazard Capital (pre-open). Target $85.
U of Mich came in as expected… 69.6 (vs 69 exped)
Z,
Current completion costs are TOO expensive for Haynesville wells. Expect a significant rig drop in La. Frac companies are taking their equipment elsewhere where the frac pressures aren’t as high and they can get more money for their jobs.
OAS bid on those $15 August strikes is $2.30, intrinsic is $2.95. Lack of volume allowing those cats to price it poorly.
Sentiment at 69.6, better than expected
Analyst just on cnbc recommending nm and balt on the dry side
26 his fund
I havent looked at it in a while– he was heavy into energy and got hit hard on redemptions.
After selling off most of the portfolio, he was down to just a few of position’s
He was active in mcf trying to get peak to do something a few years ago. Last few years he got more involved with pxri
Thanks Tex – roger that. Haynesville wells a victim of own success. Gas prices hating the success there. What would you saw is the most economic portion of the play in the Texas side, somewhere in San Augustine I would think? EOG has punched some rippers down there.
Nm reports next week. They usually have a pre earnings positve news release on operations..probably on tuesday or weds
San Augustine Tx is too hot and too deep to be economic. Heart of the play is where HK is, no questions asked, these guys have the best acreage. Shallower, larger rates, easier to frac, etc.
Thanks Bill. Will look at BALT for the ZLT over the weekend. Still sitting on a bit of cash there from sales of EXXI, part SSN and its almost time to fund the SEP for last year.
Offtopic: Anyone use ESA accounts for their kids education expenses? You can use them K-12 in addition to college. Always looking for cubbies to put cash in that D.C. can’t get to. Anyway, ESA is self directed vs the 529 track system which has done rather poorly everywhere I have looked. In fact, if anyone has a 529 plan out there they like, let me know about it. Thanks, that is all, back to energy.
EOG has turned on a dime (north).
Very strong support at 95
Tex – agree re LA, nw parishes, caddo, desoto, but EOG is saying its east Texas corr is highly IRR positive with the recent wells in the 20 MMcfpd range.
HK has been consistently making better wells in NWLA for some time now. Has to be the rocks, can’t just be superior completion methodology. Really glad to see them choke back the IPs now and flow them for the long term improved EUR. Stock however would simply like them to get oilier.
Pack, yeah but its having trouble shaking off the opening weakness. Ya know, a Goldman Sachs strong buy, Conviction List (and I really do think they should change the name of that as it makes them sound like criminals) just isn’t worth what it once was.
Market can’t get out of its own way either.
OAS showing quite a bit of resilience here, toying around $18 now. Still have not seen post CC commentary from the Street. Street looks to have gone on the last vacations of summer.
Reading that FHA is now insuring mortgages on multi-million dollar condos in Manhattan. Is that really something FHA should be involved in? These guys don’t get the fact that when you artificially prop up a market or system you only extend the duration of the pain and create the potential for a further decline down the road.
EOG – spoke too soon !
that’s what’s called a headfake !
XACS#1 weighs in (L-OIS = another way to measure the TED Spread… just sounds more sophisticated [and is the TED Spread measure that Greenspan “favored”… not surprisingly])
http://www.capmarkets.com/ViewFile.asp?ID1=142695&ID2=433970985&ssid=1&directory=6571&bm=0&filename=08.13.10_Are_Equities_Fighting_the_Fed_and_Credit.pdf
Yeah, that’s a new post CC low for EOG. Negative days have come on weaker than normal volume, expecting something to click with people there pretty soon.
NGO rallying back now.
Morning all. What a weak market when we can’t even bounce a point or two after such a massive sell off.
I am still thinking we have another low out there. Support and gap fill at 1070 – 72. Likely to come in the next couple of trading days. Then we should stage at least a bounce, maybe more, but to be honest I am getting more bearish. The up cycles run out at the end of August and it looks to me as if any bounce may end up being just a correction. We have to take out 1056 to be sure the top is in.
moratorium: common sense my A$$
Z-#24- WHX ex-div is 8/17
Whiting USA Trust I (NYSE: WHX) announced the third Trust distribution in 2010, which relates to net profits generated during the second quarterly payment period of 2010.
Unitholders of record on August 19, 2010 will receive a distribution amounting to $10,263,879 or $0.740332 per unit payable August 30, 2010.
just bought some EOG … looks like too big a flush to me relative to the group.
49, 50 – Thanks.
EOG-I take Z’s point on the importance of cash flow vs earnings agree 100%) but the “consensus”still keeps knocking earnings, sets a very negative tone-just got another note yesterday that consensus reduced another 0.02 to 0.377 for Q3-still, it is a very wide range of estimates, 0.15-0.64-little over a week ago, prior to earnings announce, consensus was 0.55 for Q3
BP says pressure test complete. Says BP and govt. squints looking at the data now. Says recommendation will got to the U.S. govt., no time line given but would think it would be pretty quick.
#28 BALT, trying to hold the bottom at the $10.25 zone, which is P&F trendline support…hard to get a feel if this holds but if bullish longs are easy to manage with stops below the recent lows….
Thanks JB
Iran Watch:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/iran_nuclear
re 13 – Z, I am in for a dollar on BP, so to speak.
BP currently ripping out of the gate, I will likely drop the Aug 45s whenever it is convenient, and hold the Oct 42s and 45s I picked up over the last couple days while they were getting beaten down….I see them stagnating around 45-48 dollars in the intermediate term, but there is no excuse for them to be sub-40 without a significant drop in crude….decided to play the intermediate term instead of paying into this ridiculous market.
BG – pretty similar thinking to mine of near term pricing there. I think it goes to $40+ today if they say the bottom kill is not needed.
But I’d guess they don’t get that out until the evening (post close) press conference.
Market about as boring as it gets.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — In perhaps one of the sharpest critiques of Federal Reserve policy ever from a sitting policy member, Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, said zero interest rates were “a dangerous gamble” in a period of moderate growth. In a speech in Lincoln, Nebraska, Hoenig warned that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his allies were trying to use monetary policy as a “cure-all” for “every problem faced by the United States today.” Keeping rates too low for too long will only lead to a repeat of the cycle of severe recession and unemployment in a few short years, he warned. Hoenig has dissented at every Fed policy meeting this year. He wants the Fed to commit to a slow and gradual increase in the target Federal funds rate. Hoenig argued that the economic news was not as bad as reported in the media and described by Wall Street experts. The markets want zero rates to continue because they are earning guaranteed returns on free money, he said. Hoenig dismissed fears of deflation.
Re 59 – Agreed.
I think attempting to finish the relief well in the near term actually makes the stock less attractive, because not only does it do nothing to make the hole any safer, it puts a rig at risk, it destroys a perfectly decent development well, & it keeps rigs on location longer, costing them more money by the day.
BOP – Do you still have my email address ?
I have an interest in looking at your CIGX play and was wondering if you could send me a brief synopsis of the story as you see it.
Let me know; thanks.
ZIRP in my opinion is extraordinarily harmful to mainstream Americans.
Think of all the folks – retirees etc – who are getting hosed by not being able to earn any money on their savings as Ben trys to force them into risk assets.
All this to help the banks.
It is outrageous.
Pack — i do. But I’ll have to search around for something to send you. I’ve followed Star for many years… thru the lawsuit and all the appeal nonsense. But we always knew that it would be the CigRx product that would be the real possibility for an explosive growth story. There isn’t really any “analyst” who follows the stock. But a couple of people have written it up, over the years. I’ll try to find one of those and send it to you.
CigRx is real… and it appears to work on a fairly large population of smokers… without the side affects of the pharma-stop-smoking-drug (who’s name i can’t recall right now).
BOP; that would be great; if you can’t find that, perhaps you can just summarize the story, the backing and the key issues. that would probably be fine.
Much appreciated.
CIGX
Key issues =
1) it works (and Star’s medical team, the Roskamp institute, inVentiv, and several very smart funds [including an in-house, private fund at GoldmanSachs] are right)
2) it doesn’t work (and Star will burn through about $5mm of cash/quarter until it dies and the shorts are right )
Alabama AG suing BP and RIG for “Catastrophic Harm” … no details I see yet.
EOG in weak gets weaker mode. Market snoozing. Volumes weak.
EOG, I am usually pretty good at timing the trade and reading the technicals.
The action since yesterday morning (straight down – $4 – in the last 24 hours) is perplexing.
There must be a pretty strong downgrade out there; just not seeing it.
I realize the market is weak but this is very unusual, particularly when looking at others in the sector.
re 71. Yep, yep, yep.
Random man here, SLB came out with a free oilfield glossary app for all you iPhone users. I’m not cool enough to carry one around, yet.
BB really climbing now, making back losses from the last couple days
Friday Moving Quote Watch:
“I am a brave president”
http://www.whitehouse.gov/deepwater-bp-oil-spill/
I love how the second post on the right of the Spill Response is Obama welcoming the Saints to the White House
Couldn’t help myself… had to look. Funny answer!
As a general market comment to people who own companies that produce Canadian heavies, expect an impact as a result of the Enbridge pipeline shutdown.
The light/heavy spread is widening from 10-12 $/bbl to >15 $/bbl in Aug and the contracts for Sept are trading at >20 $/bbl differential because of maintenance at refineries that produce heavies.
Could be a pretty big hit to Q3 earnings for companies like Baytex whose Q2 earnings were good yesterday.
BP Watch: Alabama said it is suing BP, RIG, and HAL citing the cement job as the cause of the accident, saying that the state of Alabama is suing to be “made whole” but did not specify a $ amount.
RE 73 – TEX, I just got cool the other day with a new phone but don’t bother with the iPhone, it’s old and busted.
New hotness -> Android.
AXAS earnings next week 8/17…anyone have expectations?
thanks-K
VTZ was that an EVO? I can’t find one.
HTC Desire, I can’t get the EVO in the Great White North. But it’s also quite slick.
Android is Sprint? Just moved to OKC and was wondering what the best service provider is.
android – verizon
Has anybody shelled out money for the EVO? I am debating.
VTZ – What about SU
Speaking of presidents… friend just emailed me this link. Think it’s a real movie?? Wow. Would be pretty interesting…
http://www.iwantyourmoney.com/
EOG now $3 below pre analyst meeting levels. Relative underperformance seems unlikely to persist. Story has not worsened since then. Before that date we had little idea of how big they were in the Eagle Ford though it was rumored they were large nor that they were nearly so big in the Niobrara.
KOG bouncing-about the only good news in this mkt-for me also as I added back a small chunk yesterday at 2.81-wished it was more.
As far as I’m concerned, I am in for the long hall on EOG because if 2011 comes thru on projections, s/b a gamer.
RE 86 – SU should remain relatively unaffected because the majority of their volumes are sold as light synthetics. The upgrader volumes should not be overly affected. Their Firebag volumes will be impacted however.
Similarly, CNQ’s Primrose and other insitu volumes would be impacted.
I think they’ll be given a pass for it because it’s out of their control but I just wanted to comment so people don’t get surprised by bad Q3 numbers. It should be isolated to Q3 as well.
It was more of a caution for people holding companies that are weighted towards insitu production.
Rig Count Watch:
Gas rig count up 9 to 992, 18 month high. They are their own worst enemy.
Oil rig count up 25 to 636 vs 272 a year ago.
All good for HAL, SLB, BHI etc, also CRR for proppant, CLB for cores, reservoir optimization, etc
Suncor’s MacKay volumes will also be impacted.
VTZ – any thoughts on POT and the ferts – I remember you had a trade on with POT in the not so distant past?
TGA had mid Q updates around Sept 8/9 in 08 and 09 and
they have these conferences on their schedule.
Peters & Co. Limited North American Oil & Gas Conference
September 16, 2010
FirstEnergy Capital Corp. Global Energy Conference
September 20, 2010
should be at least 6 wells including
a deep Nubia test and An Nagyah #4 horizontal to report..
maybe take out of DANA GAS oil field/concession across the river????….
An Nagyah #4 horizon “completed shortly” as of 8-5 CC
Hana #23-2127′-Kareem Aug comp
East Arta #4 Nukhul cased–32′ SIGNIFICANT deeper Nubia TD wk of 8-9
Hosia #8 Aug frac
South Rahmi #3 Aug frac
East Arta Aug fracs
Found this article re: New Brunswick Canada.
http://www.aapg.org/explorer/2010/08aug/fredrick0810.cfm
Also noted that Corridor released earnings yesterday and indicated that Apache Canada has finished the horizontal section of the most recent well they have drilled together up there. That is in the most recent Corridor press release on their site. They are getting ready to case and then frac. I am sure SWN is watching carefully as that well is closer to their acreage than anything else drilled.
ZTRADES – ZLT
CHK – Sold for $20.89, long term loss of 65%. Doing a little house cleaing and don’t see an immediate reason to hang on to this one. I continue to have greater oil than gas exposure in the ZLT.
EOG – Adding a first tranche of EOG common for $94.55.
SSN – Adding back some of my recently sold shares for $1.14.
You’re still giving HK some latitude?
Yes, and SWN.
SSN – I get a value of between $1.40 and $1.76 at the moment assuming the deal goes through.
Why?
Sort of an open ended question. Mind getting polysyllabic for me so that I can respond better?
Z … you gotta work on your timing of your buys (not that I should talk)… use charts …
:>)
Pack – The ZLT could care less about today, tomorrow, next week. I do use charts a bit and not sure which stock you are referring to but assuming it is EOG, we are near support from March, prior to the analyst meeting and all the things that made people happy back then are more than true now.
I hear ya; did not mean to offend you w/ that comment; said in jest.
Pack – I guess I need those CIRGx things. Plus oh so bored
Plus working a refi and everyone is trying to explain why my excellent credit doesn’t matter re rates that aren’t matching what the market says they should be
Plus back to school crap
Plus doing some tax stuff …
Please therefore excuse my edginess.
But happy to see the mike is still on around here given the post trade volume spike in SSN.
Absolutely no offense taken on my side and I’ll repeat that I would make a lousy day trader.
Ram – you still there? I guess you meant why punt CHK and hang onto HK and SWN.
A couple of reasons. I really do think HK is doing everything it can to meet expectations, in terms of asset sales, in terms of falling lifting costs, in terms of discipline. SWN same and both still growth 30+%. I like having some gas exposure and they seem like a good way to play any kind of bounce in the commodity. And finally, the CHK position was small, they are complex and I don’t follow the name as well as I used to and I could use the tax loss … so I punted.
love it when things are “free” ………SF EV chargers —
Bay Area soon to be home to 5,050 more EV charging stations
August 10, 2010 | Camille Ricketts
Infrastructure for electric transportation is heating up. Companies like Coulomb Technologies and Ecotality are already deploying electric vehicle charging stations region by region. And just today, general Motors said it was gearing up to announce a charging partner for its forthcoming Chevrolet Volt.
Now in the San Francisco Bay Area, one of the most progressive regions when it comes to advanced transportation, the Air Quality Management District is funneling $5 million into an initiative to roll out 3,000 home chargers, 2,000 public chargers in commercial areas, and as many as 50 rapid charging stations along nearby highways (capable of juicing car batteries in 30 minutes or less).
The goal is to spur wider adoption of plug-in vehicles, which are only expected to capture a sliver of market share in their first few years. The key will be to make charging stations accessible wherever people need to go, allowing them to quickly and efficiently extend the range of their green cars without high prices or the hassle of long waits.
The new initiative is an extension of the Bay Area EV Corridor program launched in 2008 to install billions of dollars worth of charging stations around the region. In addition to providing vouchers for charging equipment, it will provide an undecided dollar amount in incentives for homeowners looking to install chargers in their garages before the end of the year. A federal tax credit equivalent to 50 percent of the cost of a home charger is already available. Pairing the two incentives
could make this equipment essentially free.
The Air Quality Management District, which is picking up the bulk of the costs, wants to get the ball rolling on EV infrastructure before the release of the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf later this year. Right now, pretty much the only electric cars on the road in the Bay Area are Tesla Roadsters, but this is soon to change.
MP – any word on what it will cost to juice your EV up? Also, how much power are we talking about? Are people juicing their EV’s at home going to be shocked by their electric bill?
Friday Wine Watch:
Root: 1 , Colchagua Valley, Chile
Big crunchy cab, great with a steak or a burger.
O.K……, It seems to be an unloved gassy that is trying to get oilier but has management that gets little respect from analysts. What do you see in HK that would get to a 35 to 50% equity appreciation?
Saw the expanation in 106. Thanks. It seems that HK is in a perpetual dog house.
Ram – yeah, they are really only trying to get a little bit oilier. Depends on who gives the presentations. If Floyd does it he will say they are a gas company, plain and simple. Stoneburner seems to take the approach that they are going to get more liquids rich but pretty slowly. My thought is they have to do their asset sales (so far so good and we had another one this week) and then they have to get to CF to Spend at par by 2012. What gets them up is continued strong growth until then. And, I probably point to this too often, a rally in gas prices in second half 2011 due to people FINALLY curtailing their drillbits as acreage is held. The company on production basis is much much bigger than it was two years ago. In another year it will be bigger yet again and the stock has not kept up with this growth, neither on production per share nor more importantly on a $/ Mcfe of reserves. As they drill these will and bring more proven undeveloped locations on and hammer their per unit operating costs down, they should get some recognition from the Street. Especially if they stick with their “no equity deal through 2011” near-promise. Either way, the downside from here (famous last words) seems less than the upside.
no worries Z ….
re 111. Oh, can’t agree enough. It is definitely in the doghouse. I just think that they have done everything the Street wanted and yet have not been rewarded for that yet and that when gas moves up (despite the fact that they are well hedged now) that the Street will like them.
Pack – you ought to share your twitter feed here … I find it both enlightening and amusing.
Govt says Macondo not yet permanently plugged:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100813/ap_on_bi_ge/us_gulf_oil_spill
Bill:
Any more thoughts on the NM warrants?
apbd
File under “And You Thought It Couldn’t Get Any Worse?”
Last friday, i got a round of emails from various traders wishing me much happiness, over my remaining summer. Then they promply disappeared into the wilds of the Hamptons. Bye-bye, A Team. See ya in September!
Well… today the BEE TEAM is making its rounds and saying its good-byes.
By the end of next week, what is left of this “market” will be in the hands of the unpaid Summer Interns.
BOP – I would do the same next week but the interns are headed back to the class room. 😎
Impressed with the move in KOG today following the deal. Wonder if they really needed to price it that far in the hole.
If you feed the Summer Interns those special minty tablets, maybe they will react like those happy mice.
WHX taking out $22. I still have not seen commentary out of the guys who cut it to sell about 4 days after the last distribution, cause a massive sell off in the shares.
115 – Thanks Z … CapCube for anyone interested in following ..
You can not be serious watch#2:
http://www.thirdage.com/news/triskaidekaphobia-many-17m-21m-people-suffer-it_8-13-2010
#123 — no lie!
I worked in the crude shipping division for an energy company for a year. We had our own, separate building, down by the port. It was a 15 storey building, but the top floor was “16.” You guessed it… no “13th floor” on the elevator buttons. It got even worse… there were no Room #13s on any floor either. Here’s the funny part… I was the new kid in the group… in a position that revolved every so often. Our group was on the 14th floor and i had room #14… my room number was officially 1414. But, with no “13s” allowed… i was really in…. i think you can see where I’m going here…
Nautical folks that that stuff VERY seriously!
“Nautical folks TAKE that stuff VERY seriously” [i meant to say]
re: 62 looks like Hoenig wants to do something else with his life besides be associated with the Fed Reserve….
re: 65 completely agree…
re 124. And so the oft requested bio emerges, bit by bit.
Ha! Yep. Got to know the Jones Act and OPA 90 on a close and personal level… 😉
BOP:
The people at General Mills takes things very CEREALLY!
apbd
APBD – I put #1 in just for ya. Don’t tell the missus though.
apbd — you hitting the G&Ts a little early today??
HA! It’s FRIIIIIIIIIIIDAY.
phew.
One of my favorite chart guys:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280
Voted
At least we aren’t overbought now.
What a stupid stupid market.
Oh yeah… it’s mid-August. You expect RATIONALITY? Forgeddaboutit.
ohsobeerthirty. have a great one.
WHX – interesting close, volume spike on the minute chart.
I hope those recently-ordered CigRx tablets show up by Monday. Could use a little zeeeeeeeeeeeeeeennnnnnnnnnnnnn.
“inner peace…. inner peace….” (that’s a movie quote, by the way)
135, with you on that, BOP. Heading to the gym to work off a little frustration.
outta here … enjoy the weekend folks
re 116: Z, that should have been under ‘They don’t know what they’re talking about’ watch.
Finishing the relief well just ruins a wellbore worth tens of millions of dollars, so pile that on to the tab.
Oh, and I’m about to refi also, 5% to 4%
BG –
re 138 – well said
re 139. If you mean 4 even let me know where you found that low a rate.
NBC Nightly News reporting the top kill sent cement all the way down the well and partially up the annulus This they think trapped 1,000 barrels of crude that could be released if the bottom kill proceeds. So now they are trying to decide what to do.
As a side note, they reported that Ted Stephens’ plane had some defective equipment on it. The “state of the art” beacons” malfunctioned. The plane crash killed 5 people. My thought is that we should put a 6 month moratorium on at least small plane flights, perhaps on all plane flights, until we find out why these beacons didn’t work.
Or we could just say that “the world is an imperfect place, screws fall out all the time” and deal with it.
re 141 – I don’t know how on earth they could possibly determine that, given that the cap covers all of the tubular equipment. They’d have to be pinging it with acoustic tools, and I still don’t think they’d have any certainty whatsoever….it’s becoming a spin game since nobody can refute anything they say.
BG39 – yep. Funny how just before the close it’s “drill on” and after the close it’s “we’re not sure”.
Sorry 1520s, Stepped out for the day… I sold some calls against my POT lower but bought them mostly back when they crossed my breakeven but I still have a reduced position but I’m still holding all my AGU. I might lighten up just to take some profits on the grains pop. I still however think fertilizer demand will stay up for this year and probably the next.