11
Aug

Wednesday – Oil Preview and Some Bakken Thoughts

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Market Sentiment Watch: Yawn. That was the reaction to the Fed's decision to take another baby step in pumping up an economy that is back sliding more quickly than they recently thought. Oil followed the broad market and the energy group, for the most part followed it as well ... the market was driven purely by technicals.  Overnight, China released data that everyone deemed as showing "slowing" but that term is hardly descriptive. Something like "growing at a slightly less blazing speed" would be more accurate and there are few signs China will tighten as inflation remains tame. But "slowing" is setting a deeply negative tone for today's open. In energy land, we get one last shot of interesting earnings tomorrow in the form of OAS's first report as a public company and odds are, given the timing of the IPO and the names on the cover of the offering that  estimates for the quarter are set up for a beat. Guidance will therefore be much more important.  In today's post please find a brief comment on the Bakken players along with all the other usual odds and ends.

Nicky Watch: It looks to me as if we still need one more pop to the upside. If the really bullish count is underway then we should exceed 1134 and move towards 1150 into the end of the week. The less bullish count says we move to about 1131 – 1135 tomorrow before a decent pullback. The cycles would argue that the less bullish count is correct.

BP Spill Watch:

  • Mission delayed: Coast Guard says the relief well has been put on hold for the next 2 to 3 days due to weather.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – Bakken player thoughts,
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch: ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

  • $8,700
  • 70% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades: None

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $6,200
  • 35% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • NOG - Sold (4 of 5) NOG August $15 calls taken yesterday at $1.91, up 96%, after earnings as the stock reacts favorably today (up nearly 7% at $16.80) in a down market which is in limbo waiting on Fed comments. I continue to hold the September calls as well as the common in the ZLT. I did not get the last call off.

Commodity Watch: Crude oil fell $1.23 to close at $80.25 yesterday, moving in lock step with the S&P although some reporters claimed the move was to be held responsible ... which is what was moving the S&P early anyway. After the close, the API released a bullish report (see below). This morning crude is trading off nearly a buck.

  • IEA Boosts Global Demand Forecast. IEA inched up its 2010 and 2011 global oil demand forecasts to up 2% or 1.8 mm bopd to 86.6 mm bopd this year and by 1.5%, or 1.3 mm bopd to 87.9 mm bopd for 2011.

Natural gas eased a penny to close the day at $4.30 yesterday.  This morning gas is trading flat.

  • Tropics Watch: Tropical depression 5 formed in the eastern Gulf last night and should come ashore as a weak tropical storm by Thursday near New Orleans. Another system appears to be organizing mid Atlantic.

Early Read On Natural Gas Storage: The Street is looking for a 36 BCF injection for tomorrow’s report. My preliminary estimate is closer to 30 Bcf.

  • Last Week: 29 Bcf Injection
  • Last Year: 63 Bcf Injection
  • 5 Year Average: 48 Bcf Injection
  • 10 year Hi: 84 Bcf Injection
  • 10 year Low: 27 Bcf Injection

Oil Inventory Preview


API Watch: Bullish report. This time of year it is normal to see small draws or adds to crude inventories and, as one would guess draws on gasoline stocks and builds in distillate inventories. Crude is unlikely to make further headway (say into the mid $80s) until the near record Cushing volumes in storage ease down and that is unlikely to happen before October.

  • Crude: DOWN 2.187 mm barrels
  • Gasoline: DOWN 1.536 mm barrels
  • Distillates: UP 2.286 MM barrels.

Stuff We Care About Today Bakken Quick Thoughts:

AEZ - gone and I left a little money on the table with my early sell there, but gone none the less.

BEXP - Hmmm. Great results, absolutely no love from the Street for the last two months. I think part of this is distrust of a potential offering in the works (that's the kind of rumors that get started when you continually bump up spending) and part of it is that their constant pr machine has now set the IP bar too high for them to effectively continuously beat.  Still, getting cheaper by the minute and at least its oily and doing that, unlike a gassy grower, like HK. Catalyst include a 3Q completion of the first Three Forks Sanish well at Rough Rider.

KOG - Big equity will put the lid on the stock until it is completed. But, on the other side of that they will have lots of cash and I would guess, not go into debt anytime soon despite the new found availability. Maybe the cash load will help them sort out their completion delays. Liners are in the new long lat so that one should be set to report their highest ever IP. The one this morning was their highest yet to date and it was cut short by a third. Going to need to see them refrain from just spending this new money on land.

NOG - again looking more interesting to me as they tackle the play from a non-operated angle. Production growing at 30 to 35% for 3Q10 sequentially and then backing off to 20 to 30% growth each quarter through at least the end of 2010. Cheaper than BEXP when you take into account the cash flow growth and note that in the table below, those estimates are Street and are still likely to move higher over the next week to take into account better than expected well performance seen this quarter.

CLR - largest  acreage holder now, still pricey to the rest of the group. Starting to watch the name a little more closely again.

OAS - see the reports tab for thoughts on this one.

EOG - We probably need to see some asset sales to reinvigorate the stock and take out the recent highs. Results have been strong, and with a recent miss on the oil guidance for the quarter, it is my sense that the Street will overcompensate, pulling down estimates far too sharply and thereby setting up beats in the second half. They are by no means a pure play Bakken player but worthy of the occasional trade especially as they look to build upon their experience at Parshall in their new play in Montana. I currently own options here but not the stock.

Pure play (or nearly so) Bakken names. WLL is there because it is so much (but not all) of their story.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • Nada

139 Responses to “Wednesday – Oil Preview and Some Bakken Thoughts”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    EVEP getting whacked pre market on a unit offering to pay for the HK asset buy. Priced the 3mm share offering at a modest discount. Not taking a nibble today and I don't get the sense that they are will be able to increase the distribution in the near term even though that is very much the plan in the long term. 

  2. 2
    Nicky Says:

    Morning Z – hard to see higher highs out there now!  At least not until we have corrected.  We are going to open in support area of 1108,1105,1102 but I doubt any of these levels hold.  Next stop 1098.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Thanks Nicky, ugly open indeed.

  4. 4
    bill Says:

    If you buy something you get whacked. The market doesnt like leverage or dilution at the moment

  5. 5
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    We are setting up for an ugly open.  But strangely, TED is telling us that is is not Systemic Fear that is turning futures so red.  So, what could be a tough day for equities (and a down day for credit too) is not the beginning of something more sinister.  Anyway, that's what TED says.
     
    TED +23.4 bp back to my "all clear" level of tighter than 25.  Importantly, TED is narrower not because 3 mo. USTs have backed up, but because 3 mo. LIBOR has dropped from a recent high of 54 bps to 38 bps currently.  This is the rate that banks outside the US Fed Reserve System charge each other for short term borrowings.  When banks are worried, they don't like to let their money go out the door to other banks… but if they do, they charge more for it.
     
    IG Credit index got to +100bps a few days ago, then got chilly feet.  Has been widening and now sits around +108 bps… +3 1/2 bps wider just this morning.
     
    HY Credit index also got to almost 100 pts… then dropped away to where it sits, around 97 1/2 pts now… about 2/3 of a point lower this morning.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    re 4. Participants have a keener memory than E&P managements. We have all seen the boom / bust spending cycle too many times. And yet the budgets (for drilling) keep rising, you may have seen a small shift by the aggregate to oilier plays but the effect on gas is still more production, at a time when it is not needed.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Site moving slowly

  8. 8
    Nicky Says:

    Euro being absolutely crushed as the dollar soars. I never have understood the argument for buying the US dollar if the US economy is perceived to be so weak. Doesn’t make any sense to me. And yes I have heard all the noise about flight to safety etc. But data out of Europe is currently much better than that out of the US.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Interesting comments on a 4th Fed tool (Balance sheet size)

    http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/10/the-magma-chart/?partner=rss&emc=rss

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Nicky, will be looking for bargains today if 1,100 holds.

  11. 11
    bill Says:

    I didnt receive tph newsletter today

    Have you?

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    WLT getting dropped 4% on China, over-reaction in my book. Same thing for EOG and WLL but being patient.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Bill – yeah, it was very short, talked about a correction to their note yesterday on PXP and the IEA, think that was all.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    S&P at 1098.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – WLL

    WLL – Added (10) August $90 Calls for $1.50 with the stock off about 3.5% this morning in a weak tape.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Interesting someone took a large lot in the WLL Sept $100s just before my trade.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    JB – I’m betting you’re going to tell that WLL daily chart looks pretty scary but thought I’d ask. Triple top, near term support looks $85ish. This trade is planned to be pretty quick.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Bill – where is Robry?

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    Nicky – nice call on last support, market went there and is hugging it.

  20. 20
    bill Says:

    he is at +36
    enercast is +35

    Robry’s production growth shows increase approaching 10 % in the last view months which i dont understand.

    It implies that producers can turn on the spiggott to meet higher demand

  21. 21
    bill Says:

    see his production column up 10 % from april

    http://investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2234&mn=305266&pt=msg&mid=9376240

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    Drybulks not moving today aside from a slight uptick in BALT. ELGE is where it was at earnings… $5.

    DRYS starting to give back some it’s gains. I’m pretty sure I saw the CEO’s mega yacht on one of those discovery channel shows, the rewards for years of self dealing.

  23. 23
    bill Says:

    these are his daily / weekly production numbers which shows 10 % growth from early june

    06/11/10….59.93….59.87….57.31….56.13….56.26….59.34….60.12….408.95
    06/18/10….60.52….60.32….58.90….61.01….61.11….61.50….61.57….424.94
    06/25/10….60.89….61.02….61.31….60.75….61.48….61.87….61.58….428.89
    07/02/10….61.74….61.82….63.02….61.52….60.13….59.86….60.46….428.55
    07/09/10….60.08….60.55….60.68….62.87….62.75….62.51….62.76….432.21
    07/16/10….62.56….62.58….63.46….59.69….60.39….62.46….62.39….433.53
    07/23/10….61.49….61.21….61.32….60.39….61.25….60.91….60.59….427.15
    07/30/10….62.05….64.18….62.97….62.82….63.81….63.86….63.85….443.54
    08/06/10….63.21….64.10….64.88….64.58….65.12….65.37….64.51….451.76

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    I see it and I can’t get to that kind of growth, either month to month (historically it doesn’t happen) or YoY (the storage numbers would not add up like they have been). He’s still good, very good on the weekly storage number though.

  25. 25
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #17, Zman, WLL P&F buy signal, which holds until a print of $85, major support at $85-$86, $85 is the 50 period SMA, right now I think it’s a technical buy the dip candidate above the 50 SMA…

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    I was looking at the column in the link, which shows supply growing about 2.5 Bcfgpd in July and again in August … I don’t see where he gets that.

  27. 27
    bill Says:

    eia data for april and may shows

    eia data
    apr may
    prod 1,859,431 1,917,700
    day 30 31
    prod/day 61,981 61,861

    http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050us2m.htm

  28. 28
    Nicky Says:

    I was about to add 1096 after that which we have just hit!

  29. 29
    Nicky Says:

    volume very light although heavier than the up days

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Thanks much JB.

    Everything holding just at or just above the lows waiting on the oil numbers in 30 minutes.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    “very light volume” – yeah, like two computers playing pong. Even big name analysts don’t have more than a transitory, maybe 2 day effect, on stocks at the moment. Either the computers can’t read words like “Conviction Buy List” or the analysts are overpaid.

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    JB – the minute chart on NOG is pretty interesting, still some interest there it seems after the morning flush.

  33. 33
    bill Says:

    balt is oversold. Its the only bulker stock I know trading below book and current asset values

    http://www.mysmartrend.com/news-briefs/news-watch/morgan-stanley-believes-concerns-over-baltic-trading-limiteds-stock-trading-b

    Some of the others, if you adjust book to market for the value of the ships,the balance sheet would look like sandridges

  34. 34
    choices Says:

    Z-what is your view on SSN at current price of 1.13,off 5% w/mkt.

    Thanks

  35. 35
    bill Says:

    It implies that producers can turn on the spiggott to meet higher demand

    do producers have the ability do that?

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    Choice – I’m steeling myself to buy back my shares sold at $1.30. I’ve chatted with management a couple of times now (prior to the $10 mm) hitting their account and have come away thinking that they will see a string of interesting catalysts later this year and into next, first Bakken, then NIobrara, along with the Niobrara acreage sale on 9/6. I think there may have been some confusion over Monday’s comments about lease expiry and an exploration block not being formed and will put another note in with them to make sure that the high end of the deal is still an attainable target.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    Bill – historically no. They don’t have that much shut in or choked back. That’s like turning on the equivalent of half the state of OK twice in a row. I’ve never seen that happen except when are coming back from an extended shut in in the Gulf.

    The hunt for liquids rich plays and the associated cashinghead gas wouldn’t do that either.

    You could see a bump in dry gas due to less processing but the economic incentive to trim processing isn’t there at the moment either.

    It really could not be simply gas plays coming on all at once, given the size either.

    So it seems to me its a modeling error.

  38. 38
    RMD Says:

    EVEP thoughts from cc; (disclosure = I sold position recently); HK acq. (like VNR’s recent deal) replaces cash flow from old high strike-priced hedges with acquired production. ‘Acq. is another step toward ’13-’14 coverage’. Maintaince capx seems to stay flatish while co. grows by acq. Cotton Valley under 20% ROI hurdle now. Paid 5.9X cf for HK assets, so must be improvement expected to get to 20%. Still mash Enervest and EVEP data together. Doing JV with them in a stealth basin. No disclosure on results of multi-stage fracs in A Chalk or S Juan but ‘pleased” with results. Nothing on Knox. I bankers “loaded” with packages for ssale into yr. end.

  39. 39
    choices Says:

    EOG-“consensus” earnings for Q3 getting knocked down, twice in last few days, currently 0.397 from 0.54 few days ago,

  40. 40
    bill Says:

    From chk 10-Q: “In the latter half of 2009 and in 2010, we took advantage of attractive strip prices in 2012 through 2015 and sold natural gas and oil call options to our counterparties in exchange for 2010 and 2011 natural gas swaps with strike prices above the then current market price. This effectively allowed us to sell out−year volatility through call options at terms acceptable to us in exchange for straight natural gas swaps with strike prices well in excess of the then current market price for natural gas.”

    exchange between Kistler (Simmons and Co) and Rowland in the CC Q&A,

    Q. (Kistler): “…looks like you guys put on some pretty nice gas hedges. Curious if they were set up similarly to things you had done in the past or you’d forward-sold call options in the out-years? And if that is the case, can you just kind of give us a little bit of color on how much production you’re willing to commit going forward to be able to augment that swap price?”

    A. (Rowland): ‘….I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me. The hedges we put on are both of the nature, where we’ve sold some additional calls and collars and then some of them are just straight swaps. So the swaps and all of the collar arrangements and the calls are going to be set forward in the 10-Q that’ll be filed on the ninth.”

    It looks additional 904 BCF in outyears (2013-2020) at an average of $8.08.

    So they got a higher price in 2011 in essence buying a deep in the money puts, and covering the cost by selling calls at 8.08 in the out years

    It makes them looks like genius that they have 30 % hedged at 7.39 and also tells you what they think about long term ng prices

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Re 39. Yes, largely on DD&A which is non cash.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    S&P off 2%, energy off 2 to 5%, pretty typical.

    Oil #s in 1 minute

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    EIA Oil Inventories:

    Oil down $1.40 pre #s

    Inventories

    Crude DOWN 3 mm barrels
    Gasoline up 0.4 mm barrels
    Distillates up 3.5 mm barrels

  44. 44
    choices Says:

    #41-z, you make a very good point that it is cash flow that matters-just not sure if Street analysts are that savvy and make the distinction-some maybe but not all.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    More EIA

    gasoline demand off week to week by 200,000 bpd to 9.236 mm bpd, not great

    dist off slightly as expected

    Imports were off again resulting in the larger than expected draw down on crude stocks.

    Cushing only inched lower by 0.1 mm barrels to 37.7 mm, still near the highs.

    Not a great report, not terrible either.

    Oil off another 30 cents post report.

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    Choices – most do. They print EPS due to First Call rules that require you to if you want to be judged on earnings estimate accuracy vs your peers. And a lot of guys do talk earnings around non sector specific buyside types. But given the different accounting regimes of Full Cost and Successful Efforts, along with the vagaries of the inner workings of each company, cash flow is a far superior judge of ability. I know you know this but it is worth repeating that you simply can’t talk about spending and earnings in the same breath as EPS is a tax derived measure whereas cash flow, especially cash flow from operations tells you how the firm is doing and what they can do based on their endeavors.

  47. 47
    choices Says:

    z-thanks.

  48. 48
    bill Says:

    sd with a new presentation

    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MzkzMDY0fENoaWxkSUQ9Mzk3OTQzfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

    yawn

  49. 49
    elijahwc Says:

    ROSE: Drive by rsch. Rodman bumps a buck and Wunderlich re-its. About a day late, boys.

    Rodman & Renshaw Inc.: / ROSE / Q2 Follow-up 08-10 9:30 PM

    “Adjusting Eagle Ford assumptions. ROSE’s well results to date in the Gates Ranch area suggest its 4.0 Bcfe EUR could be conservative. The average 7-day IP rate on its most recent wells appears to be over 8.0 MMcfe/d, including a rate of ~10 MMcfe/d on its last well. As a result, we are increasing our EUR forecast for the area to ~4.3 Bcfe (from 4.0) and fine-tuning the mix to ~40% gas and ~60% liquids (with NGLs accounting for 60% of total liquids) from 33% gas and 67% liquids. We are also increasing our average completed well cost estimate to $7.0 million (from $6.0) given longer laterals, service cost pressures, and the company’s use of ceramic proppants. The net effect of the tweaks is a ~$1/share increase to our NAV.

    Alberta Basin Bakken commentary was encouraging. The company sounded encouraged by testing performed on its vertical wells in the Alberta Basin. It appears the fracs are growing vertically as the company had hoped, meaning it could be able to stimulate multiple formations with one wellbore, reducing overall costs to develop the resource (the company does not believe this will lead to reservoir seal issues). As a next step, ROSE is mobilizing a rig to drill 8 additional vertical wells in the play in order to continue testing the Bakken, Three Forks, Banff, and Nisku formations. While we’d love to see a horizontal well in the play (which was not ruled out by the company), we still take the increased activity as a positive sign as ROSE only had to drill 1 additional well this year to meet its lease obligations. Our NAV currently risks the company’s acreage by 90%, so commercial success could push our target price much higher.

    Increasing estimates. Despite the lower 2010 production forecast, our EPS/CFPS estimates rise to $0.83/$3.41 from $0.69/$3.32 on the flow-through from the Q2 beat as well as lower forecast unit operating expenses and a higher percentage of liquids in the production mix. For 2011, our CFPS estimate rises to $4.76 from $4.54.

    Maintain Market Outperform rating. Our target price nudges up $1 to $27 on the adjustment to our Gates Ranch well economics model. We’re still buyers of the stock at current levels and see 25%-30% upside from current levels. We arrive at our target price by applying a 1x multiple to our NAV of the company’s proved and risked upside reserves, valued at long-term commodity prices of $75/Bbl and $6.00/Mcf.”

    and,

    Wunderlich Securities, Inc.: Rosetta Resources, Inc.,ROSE

    “Ramping Up at Gates Ranch ROSE: [WSS] – 08-11 10:06 AM

    Summary

    We are reiterating our Buy rating and $28 price target on Rosetta Resources (ROSE). Accelerating production from the Eagle Ford, an upward revision of capex, and a more concentrated focus on liquids projects were all highlights of 2Q. We are encouraged by the continuing positive production results at Gates Ranch and believe that the company’s read of the Alberta Basin remains very positive. We believe that positive results in both these plays will provide the catalysts to help drive additional shareholder value in coming quarters. Production in the Eagle Ford, along with a higher oil and NGL production mix, helped drive overall 2Q production up almost 10% sequentially.

    Key Points

    Eagle Ford Drives Production Growth. Rosetta reported a 2Q10 EPS of $0.08, operating cash flow of $0.73, and average daily production growth of 8% sequentially. Eagle Ford production growth of 22 mmcfe/d was the primary production driver. Gas accounted for 81% of production, down from 86% as the liquids-rich Gates Ranch production affected mix. Production and operating costs were in line with forecast although gas prices were well below forecast, resulting in a 15% revenue shortfall. Capex was expanded to $310mm from $280mm.

    Eagle Ford Production Outstrips Takeaway Capacity. Rosetta is running a two-rig program at Gates Ranch with two completions a month through year-end. In 2Q, production outstripped takeaway capacity, which will restrict production growth until that capacity expands in December. To date, the wells are exceeding the models and Gates Ranch wells are running 80% liquids. As a result, the vast majority of the $225 million capex earmarked for the Eagle Ford will be spent at Gates Ranch. That acreage is estimated to have a 885 BCF reserve potential.

    Alberta Basin Tests Continue. During 2Q, Rosetta perforated several intervals and did vertical tests in two of the 2009 wells that confirmed the presence of oil-saturated Banff, Bakken, Three Forks, and Nisku intervals. The company also added acreage and now has 291,000 net acres in the play, an increase of about 50,000 acres from year-end 2009. Rosetta is moving a rig to the play to drill an eight-well program to further test over the large acreage position.

    Adjusting Estimates. We are adjusting our EPS and cash flow estimates to reflect 2Q results, lower energy prices, and somewhat higher production with a higher mix of liquids to total production. Our estimate for 2011 includes a 33% production increase with almost 30% liquid content. Details of our estimates are contained in the P&L following this note.

    Valuation. Our $28 price target is based on a risked NAV valuation that includes almost a $7.00 value for the company’s Eagle Ford reserve potential. We have credited Rosetta with 40% of that reserve potential at a value of $1 an mcf. We include a nominal value for the Alberta acreage. In both cases, we believe our values are conservative. Risks to our target include lower production and energy prices.”

  50. 50
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #32 NOG, pulling into intraday moving avg support zone, NOG technically holding up so far, just now breaking a bit below yesterday’s low, strong support at $15

    WLL 20 day SMA support at $86.80…great buy spot at $85-$86 if it gets there…

  51. 51
    blackgold39 Says:

    BP Aug 45’s will be DOA unless they can get back to drilling and shake off this market malaise…

  52. 52
    blackgold39 Says:

    I just grabbed up some BP Oct. 42s & 45s, going to play it a bit farther out.

    Ahh and EOG’s Aug 110’s are also DOA.

  53. 53
    elijahwc Says:

    BALT – the Lizard (Lazard) says yesterdays 2Q EPS of $0.12 was in line with Street expectations and more importantly that the new dividend (.16/share)beats expectations; while equity issuance conditions are not favorable the freight markets improving = BUY.

    Its a 5.7% yield on the way to Bill’s $1.60 or 10% at $16 share.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Thanks much JB, Eli.

    BG – reiterating that I am pretty light in BP calls at the moment. I don’t know that getting the bottom kill done is more than a short term pop in the name at this point. I think you simply need a more friendly market to ease the profit taking here.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    TAT only down a penny today, see that Canaccord cut numbers but don’t know how much, says results to date have been disappointing (agreed) but that the future looks brighter given the equipment getting to Turkey (remains to be seen).

  56. 56
    bill Says:

    on Bulkers

    cape rates are better

    http://www.tradewinds.no/drycargo/article564792.ece

  57. 57
    cargocult Says:

    JB-any thoughts on LINE support?

  58. 58
    elijahwc Says:

    TRGL – the stealth gainer for the secound half.

    As noted by CK Cooper:

    · “The Hess/TRGL JV is on track to drill its first well in the six well Phase 1 program to test the potential of Paris Basin shale oil. The first well shall commence drilling in early 4Q10, with a focus on collecting new data from cores, logs and fracture analysis. Data and analysis will be used to design and orient a horizontal well. The company has submitted four well permits to the French government and is securing a rig contract.

    · We maintain our BUY rating and price target of $12.50 for TRGL shares. The JV with Hess will enable TRGL to test the vast potential for shale oil development in the Paris Basin. Our $12.50 price target may represent only a fraction of the upside potential to the share price if the shale tests proved to be successful.”

    HES is on the hook for the first six wells.

    · The Hess/TRGL JV is on track to drill its first well in the six well Phase 1 program to test the potential of Paris Basin shale oil. The first well shall commence drilling in early 4Q10, with a focus on collecting new data from cores, logs and fracture analysis. Data and analysis will be used to design and orient a horizontal well. The company has submitted four well permits to the French government and is securing a rig contract.

    · We maintain our BUY rating and price target of $12.50 for TRGL shares. The JV with Hess will enable TRGL to test the vast potential for shale oil development in the Paris Basin. Our $12.50 price target may represent only a fraction of the upside potential to the share price if the shale tests proved to be successful.

  59. 59
    elijahwc Says:

    #58, don’t know how that happened but I repeat myself.

  60. 60
    bill Says:

    53, i didnt predict 1.60 another analyst did.

    But 1.60 is achievable if the 9 ships can avg 25,100 tce per day

    they are 20 k per day now which gives 21 cents

    last qtr they averaged 25,567

    vessal qty daily rate cum
    cape 2 100% 40000 80000
    supra 4 95% 23000 92000
    handy 3 110% 18000 54000
    9 25,111 226000

  61. 61
    Nicky Says:

    Interesting comment on CNBC surrounding the moves in the European markets. Saying that yesterday in anticipation of what the Fed would do the market went massively short the dollar!

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Got a sick cattle dog, stepping out to the vet, back in a bit. Someone stoke this market up for me.

  63. 63
    Nicky Says:

    BOP if you are around any comments from HT.

    I have 1088 as a must hold into the close.

  64. 64
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #57, LINE, cargo, not much great guidance on any time frame right here, looking at the P&F chart, buyers should try to hold the buy signal in X’s at $28, this seems to be the closest meaningful support zone that I can see right here…

  65. 65
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Nicky — will check with HT right now…

    Meanwhile, XACS#1 checks in… and tells us that in the Epic Battle between the Bulls and the Bears, it just became more dangerous to be…. a Bear!

    http://www.capmarkets.com/ViewFile.asp?ID1=142493&ID2=433493113&ssid=1&directory=6571&bm=0&filename=08.11.10_Splitting_Hairs_No.pdf

  66. 66
    cargocult Says:

    JB-Thank you and for all your chart work which is greatly appreciated.

  67. 67
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Informal survey off the institutional credit default swap desk at JPMorgan has the SPX closing down 15 to 25 pts today. So they are expecting a bounce in equities off the low.

    HT personally thinks the SPX is range-bound in the 1050 to 1120ish… until we hold one or the other for a while. But, he’s going to see if he can get some TechTrader color.

  68. 68
    Nicky Says:

    Thanks BOP.

    I am looking to work a count with the cycles.

    With the downside today which is basically already into the target area I am thinking we make a low sometime between now and the 16th August. Then we go on to make new highs into the end of the month.

    I think that low is likely to come between 1075 and 1090. So we are into bottoming area both in time and price.

  69. 69
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HT’s more refined opinion is that it is important to hold the 50D at 1088 then maybe 1083, but he is “not really seeing much ’till 1050.”

    Still trying to get a response from a TechTrader guy.

  70. 70
    Nicky Says:

    consolidating at the lows….looks like we have lower lows out there.

  71. 71
    Jerome Blank Says:

    CIGX and UNG are the only green on my screen right now, it’s going to be a stock pickers mkt condition for a bit, perhaps also gold…

  72. 72
    Nicky Says:

    looks like we have broken out of the earlier consolidation and are now in a fifth wave lower. Once it makes its low this should lead to a bounce.

  73. 73
    Nicky Says:

    1088 is 50sma. 1084 is 38% retrace of rally from 1010 to 1129.

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    OK I’m back, should have stayed away longer. Ugh market.

  75. 75
    bill Says:

    from robry on production

    MONTHLY SUPPLY MODELS (Supply Posts): The US and Canadian
    models attempt to estimate dry gas production by way of raw pipeline
    receipts data. Liquids entering the pipelines from non production sources
    may somewhat skew these models.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    Thanks Bill – wondering if the numbers I am seeing from him also include imports

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    APA completes $3.1 B BP asset purchase. I should have added the possibility of more asset sales getting done as a potentially lifting event but since you can’t know the timing of those you can’t really rely on them giving much of a boost to at least the August calls.

  78. 78
    bill Says:

    he has a separate column for canadian gas and lng imports and mexican exports

    what else can affect pipeline receipts

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    HAL – getting closer to buying back in.

    Nicky – any levels on the way back up that you see as a sign that the selling is backing off.

    NOG keeps trying to poke back up, it is now just under where I added in the ZLT the other day, probably won’t add more for another several weeks, unless it drops another 10% on a market related swoon here.

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    Not sure what he means by other things affect what he means by non-production sources.

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    Meant to say, not sure what he means by non-production sources. Not sure I really care either. His math on production just about has to be broken.

  82. 82
    Nicky Says:

    Z I can count five completed waves down – if we can take out the 1094 area….we should head back to 1100 – 1104.

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Thanks Nicky, would like a close over 1,100 but seems like we should go tap the 50 day before making a real move back up. Lot of TA types are going to be talking about having failed the 200 day tonight.

  84. 84
    Nicky Says:

    well we got pretty close to the 50dma – we were within a point.
    I would love to see a rip your face off rally into the close but more worried we will close on the lows.

  85. 85
    Nicky Says:

    Cisco after the bell – can be a big market mover.

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    Hear ya on all of that. Would like to see same.

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    and I bet we see a pretty good move later in the day but not green.

  88. 88
    Nicky Says:

    re #87 – you think we go lower? or higher but not positive?
    Oil starting to stir….

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    I think we come up off the lows and settle in around 1100

  90. 90
    Nicky Says:

    That would be very bullish if it happened.

  91. 91
    milepost_43 Says:

    Lower diffs coming for Eastern Montana–Western ND producers…IF.…XL gets built…….
    Keystone XL, Montana officials agree to let oil patch business use pipeline
    HELENA — State regulators have granted condemnation powers to the proposed Keystone XL oil pipeline across Eastern Montana, but not until its developer agreed that Montana has power to regulate local oil producers' access to the line.
    Eastern Montana oil producers who want to use the pipeline to ship their product now are comfortable that the state can regulate the terms of "interconnecting" with the pipeline, one of their attorneys said Tues
    http://www.rapidcityjournal.com/news/article_454a4b42-a548-11df-95a7-001cc4c002e0.html

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    There is a Reuters scare piece out on the coal sector today. Talks about the end of Cap and Trade not being the end of the problems for the sector. Also says Chinese demand may not be enough to offset retirements of old plants in the U.S. Finally says Obama will go after the coal names via the EPA so it won't need a law like cap and trade to hurt them. This is all a collective "big duh" but it's out there, and the group is off on China and then the piece. Nothing new at all in that piece and no numbers to support the China growth isn't as big as the US retirement angle. Plants are retired in the U.S. every year and many of them are 50 years old or older. Many more are upgraded each year to meet new environmental and efficiency stands. And don't get me started on China. The reporter is fishing with old bait.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Nicky – just a hunch, not putting new money on it at the moment.

     

    MP – thanks, good news for the Roosevelt Cnty Bakken players I would think.

  94. 94
    dij Says:

     Nicky,  Why is this not the beginning of the move to an October bottom?  To a layman's eye and a few technicals, SPY has broken through the trend line that began July 6, MACD is at a top, and there is no great economic news.  And presumed fear of the coming seasonal drop.  Thanks.
     

  95. 95
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    MIDDAY OVERVIEW
    ·         Equity levels @ 12:25 – SP500 down 28.45pts to 1,092.61, DJIA down 224.93pts to 10,419.32, NAZZ down 66pts to 2,211.17, Russell 2000 down 22.17pts to 624.19
    ·         Stocks see steep declines across the board (both in the US and Europe w/all major sectors suffering falls).  Short activity picking up, esp. in certain sectors (like the semis).  There is a major buyers strike occurring, allowing the sp to gently drift lower heading into the afternoon; the selling isn’t panicked (and we have been holding the low 1090s for the last ~1.5 hrs).  In terms of technicals, we easily sliced through the 200day (1115) and the 1100 level; next up, people are watching ~1094 (slightly below heading into the afternoon), 1088, 1084, and then the low 1070s (a Reuters article just crossed entitled “SP500 chart sends strong sell signal”).  In terms of catalysts for the selling, the China #s and Fed decisions are being cited for weakness.  China had a slew of #s out tonight and while some were lighter (inc. new loans), overall they didn’t reveal any new trends that we didn’t already know from the Mon night releases or the data out last week (i.e. that growth is slowing some sequentially but still is relatively robust).  For the US, the FOMC decision did surprise people and has done more harm than good (in addition, the eco releases in the last few wks continues to chip away at the Q2 GDP reading, putting is somewhere near ~1%).  While stock action getting a lot of attention, the activity in FX even more notable – dollar experiencing huge rally. 
    ·         Equity sectors – Industrials are the worst sector in the market, falling close to 3.5% on weakness across the board, but particularly in higher beta machinery names and E&Cs. Materials are off over 3% and lagging as base metals, steel, and iron ore stocks all get hit hard on a stronger dollar and slide in their respective commodity prices. Energy is off around 2.9% and underperforming on weakness across the entire space amid a slide in crude towards $78. Financials are also off around 2.9%, lead lower by regional banks, although NTRS is higher on reports that HSBC might buy them. Tech is off over 2.6%, lagging the tape a bit on weakness in semis (SOX off >4.25%) and CREE/VECO (CREE’s earnings). Discretionary is outperforming the tape a bit on strength in M (earnings), though still off sharply on weakness in ODP and cruiselines/hotels. Healthcare is outperforming the tape a bit on CFN’s earnings, although weakness in HMOs and some managed care names weigh on the group over tax legislation proposed by a few members of Congress. Utilities are off 1.9%, outperforming as investors flock to the lower beta, high dividend names on the selloff. Staples are off around 1.5% and outperforming on some relative strength in PG, MO, and SFY. Telecom is the best sector in the market, falling just under 1.35% and led by PCS as the group outperforms on a defensive bid.
    ·         Best Performing sp500 stocks: CFN, M, NTRS, APOL, FDO, TRV, PCS, DV, GIS, PG
    ·         Weakest: BRCM, SNDK, TIE, ODP, ROK, HAL, TXT, SUN, ATI, RF
    ·         What does the Fed know?  The about-face by the FOMC on Tues (the unexpected move to reinvest maturing MBS into TSYs) has raised worries that the Fed knows something about the eco outlook that the market doesn’t.  However, the public data has pointed to a meaningful deceleration.  The Q1 GDP print was +3.7%; the initial Q2 reading was +2.4% (on Jul 30); since that first Q2 read, we have received the other components of Q2 growth and all have implied a lower number (today’s trade data, combined w/other reports from the last few wks, are signaling a Q2 GDP reading of around 1%, a big deceleration from Q1).  Meanwhile, the jobs market still hasn’t rebounded and inflation readings remain subdued. 
    ·         Dollar strength – DXY up 1.8% and near highs of the day – the dollar had been heavily for sale/shorted into the FOMC meeting on Tues and the final decision to reinvest MBS has prompted a global short-covering trade.  The DXY is now up more than 1.7% today.  Carry trades are being unwound on reduced growth expectations, something that is boosting the funding currencies (DXY, JPY) and hurting others (EUR, GBP, etc).  There is also the thinking that the Fed may be early on policy (i.e. the world’s other major central banks will follow the FOMC w/incremental accommodation measures in the coming months).  For the yen, it actually traded under 85 today vs. the US$ (hit 84.73) but has now weakened back to about the flat line (there continues to be a ton of market talk that 85 is the limit that Japanese officials will bear before intervening in the market; CNBC just reported that Japanese officials are conducting an emergency survey of exporters to gauge the damage being incurred from the yen). 
    ·         European stresses starting to emerge again – Bloomberg reported (early this morning) that the ECB has lent European banks dollars for first time in two months (the ECB allotted $430M in a 7-day refinancing plan at 1.18% for the first time since May 26).  Sov CDS levels have been widening out in the last couple weeks – Greece was ~727bp at the end of Jul and is now 816; Ireland has seen among the most dramatic increases (from sub 200 at the start of Aug to 267 now); Italy has gone from 128bp at the start of Aug to 170 now; Portugal went from 217bp at the start of Aug to 266 now.  Looking at the move in Ireland specifically, there don’t seem to be any major headlines (the Bank of Ireland had earnings out this morning but its stock actually outperformed in European trading).  There is some focus today on the reports that Spain is going to be reviving some infrastructure projects (raising concerns their budget deficit could start to widen out again). 
    ·         Treasuries – remain VERY strong; 10yr yields down ~5bp (to 2.71%); 2yrs got under 0.5% but are now 0.517; Fed will be buying ~$20B worth of TSYs per month over the next year (concentrated in 8-9yr part of the curve) vs. ~$70B at peak of QE part I (from the TSY desk).  At 3pm today, the New York Fed is expected to announce the amount of Treasuries it expects to purchase over the next month. This amount will represent the total amount of MBS paydowns and Agency debt maturations over the Aug 4th to mid-September.  JPMorgan expects ~$16.5B worth of purchases.  Interesting article today on DJ that is getting some attention (although isn’t really impacting TSYs all that much) – China Sees JGBs As Less Risky than US TSYs….a greater proportion of JGBs are held domestically in Japan, making them relatively more stable than TSYs (DJ citing a Chinese economist)
    ·         European equities – very weak trading across the board and prices finish pretty much at their lows; DJ Euro Stoxx -2.7%, FTSE -2.4%, CAC -2.7%, DAX -2.1%, Spain -3.2%.  Financials very heavy within Europe – off 3.7%; industrials also sluggish (dwn ~3%).  Weakest European stocks: Intesa -6%, Phillips -5%, Agricole -4.7%, BBVA -4.6%, Santander -4.3%, AXA -4.2%, CRH -4.2%. 

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    BOEM (formerly MMS) says little impact by TD 5 in the Gulf, a few non-essentials moves around but no production shut in from this one.

  97. 97
    Nicky Says:

    Close in oil does not bode well for the rest of the day in indices.
    re#94 dij.  Its always possible that it is but the pattern looks incomplete to the upside and there are some longer term cycles that do not top out until the end of August.
    If we were to take out 1056 so I would say the top is in.

  98. 98
    Nicky Says:

    still looking for a move above 1094 to confirm a low in place

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    GM to sell shares as early as Friday.

    Senate seeking medical records of Locherbie bomber. Rome starting to have that burning smell again and they are focused on the wrong stuff.

  100. 100
    dij Says:

    Thanks Nicky, that clarifies!

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    ARD shareholders have got be pretty disappointed with the fresh lows here. Maybe wondering why their team sold them out.

  102. 102
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    We were joking about "free money" yesterday… well, here it is.  Zero-interest loans.  Wonder how many of these will be paid back.
     
    When is the raid on the cookie jar gonna stop???  The cookies have long left the jar, but they are still grabbing….
    —————————————————————-
     
    HUD Offers Interest-Free Loans to Reduce Foreclosures (Update1)
    2010-08-11 17:27:33.896 GMT
     
    (Adds HUD adviser’s comment, eligibility requirements starting in third paragraph.)
    By Lorraine Woellert
    Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) — The Obama administration will offer
    $1 billion in zero-interest loans to help homeowners who’ve lost income avoid foreclosure as part of $3 billion in additional aid targeting economically distressed areas.
    Under the new $1 billion program, the Department of Housing and Urban Development will offer loans of up to $50,000 to borrowers "in hard hit local areas" to make mortgage, tax and insurance payments for as long as two years, HUD said today in a statement. The Treasury Department will also offer as much as $2 billion in aid under an existing program for 17 states and the District of Columbia, according to the news release.
    The initiatives "will ultimately impact a broad group of struggling borrowers across the country and in doing so further contribute to the administration’s efforts to stabilize housing markets and communities," Bill Apgar, HUD’s senior adviser for mortgage finance, said in the statement.
    Unemployment, following the worst housing crash since the Great Depression, is helping accelerate foreclosures. A record
    269,962 U.S. homes were seized in the second quarter, according to RealtyTrac Inc. Foreclosures probably will top 1 million this year, the Irvine, California-based data company said in a July
    15 report.
    HUD’s Emergency Homeowners Loan Program aims to help people who have experienced a "substantial reduction" in income because of involuntary unemployment, underemployment or a medical condition, according to the statement.
    Aid recipients must be at least three months delinquent on loans and have "a reasonable likelihood" of being able to resume payments and other housing expenses within two years, HUD said. Borrowers must live in the home and demonstrate a good payment history prior to their loss of income.
    The existing program, known as the Hardest-Hit Fund, helps states with unemployment rates at or above the national average during the past 12 months, according to the statement.

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    BOP – you know the way to eventually pay for all of this, what will gain ground in popularity because there won't be an alternative to refill that jar, will be the VAT.

  104. 104
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    We already have a VAT.  It's called "corporate income tax."

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    True but that won't stop a new VAT. Only gridlock can do that.

  106. 106
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    We already have taxation at every level of production… and if you don't think that "corporate income tax" is — in effect — a VAT.  Then you also don't believe that corporate income taxes get passed through to the final end user.
     
    You can argue that companies only pay taxes on profits.  But any company that is not profitable (or propped up by taxpayers) goes away over time.  Only the ones who can successfully pass through taxes (included in their profit margins) survive.
     
    Basic Economics.  (A class that 99.9% of people in government seemed to have either skipped, flunked, or slept through.)

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    I'll probably buy some SSN back if we have another day like today Thursday or Friday. As with most potential buyers out there, I don't feel a great sense of urgency to get long(er) in equities at the moment.

    ECT – only name on my screens up at the moment, WHX hanging in their second best of the yield names, with the rest of 2 to 5% today. Interesting that they would be selling off as I would expect people to go after yield more now. Maybe it takes a little time to filter out.

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    BOP – I'm not arguing with you at all. I'm saying a whole new VAT is being contemplated and will basically amount to a national sales tax. Remember Rahm's quote "never waste a crisis"?

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    NY FED on the tape saying it will buy $18 B of treasuries beginning Aug 17.

  110. 110
    zman Says:

    KOG getting hit for 8%, probably dead money until the deal is done. BOP, any idea how much of a show they are doing before taking the new shares to market? 

  111. 111
    Bob Says:

    Z- Had a chance to look at the projected ECT distributions per "Weekend Wrap" question with link?

  112. 112
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — checking on RS.

  113. 113
    choices Says:

    About the only thing I can see today with any kind of positive spin is that the volume is very light on some of the names I'm watching, EOG, WLL,WLT,XEC

  114. 114
    tomdavis12 Says:

    dij: re NLY because the Fed is buying Treas and not agency paper, good for NLY. Reason for green.

  115. 115
    zman Says:

    Bob – It will be in the post tomorrow. I am not going to be taking a position as I don't really want exposure to Marcellus gas at the moment.

     

    VNR – Tom, yeah, I know, thanks for being patient, I started and stopped looking at them a couple of times since, I am not going back into the name for now, will have some notes soonish there, but have decided to stay away.

  116. 116
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Well… downed my last free CigRx.  So, went to the website and ordered the "Three-fer" (like the "free shipping").  Think I'm gonna need it, to get through the rest of this month.
     
    Just smile and wave, boys… just smile and wave.

  117. 117
    redjack Says:

    BOP..
    ordered mine last thursday

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    RJ – but do they help with sea sickness?

  119. 119
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    What we have here, is a failure of the buy-side to want to step into this dog-fight of a market.
     
    Safer to watch from the sidelines. 
     
    Heck…. if i lose enough money, maybe I can get a check from the gummint too!

  120. 120
    redjack Says:

    Z…I might need them for those all night crossings

  121. 121
    DrLink Says:

    Strange on a day like today ATPG getting some love….

  122. 122
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    redjack — cool!  Let me know when you get them.  Hearing shipping is a tad slow.
     
    Your first try, take one… wait 15 mins… if no apparent "feeling"… take another.  Unless you are sensitive to caffeine (to the tune of a sip of diet coke will send you over the edge), there is nothing in them that can hurt you.  You can't overdose on it… at a point where the body can't absorb the active ingredients anymore, the rest just get flushed.  They dosed mice something like 2,000x a pack and it didn't hurt them.  Made them smile, form a little mousy-circle, and sing Kum-By-Ya… but other than that, the mice were fine.

  123. 123
    redjack Says:

    BOP …if the mice really did sing, we would be rich!

  124. 124
    john11 Says:

    I ordered some too Bop, need a little Kum-By-Ya singing right about now.

  125. 125
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    redjack — ok.  So I exaggerated a little…
     
    The mice SQUEEKED out something that sure SOUNDED like "Kum-by-Ya," tho… and they were smiling, holding paws, and gently swaying, side-to-side, while squeeking. 
     
    So, i just embellished a tad, that's all.  😉

  126. 126
    zman Says:

    DRL – I think it is still bouncing around after the big up then big down surrounding earnings. Don't see a broker note there today but could be one.

    WHX and ECT also managed green closes. ECT got a bunch of favorable initiations this morning.

  127. 127
    zman Says:

    Sounds like your mice are stoned.

  128. 128
    Nicky Says:

    Cisco beats by a penny, light on revenue, down 5% after hours

  129. 129
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Happy mice.
     
    And I feel better now, too.
     
    Oh yeah.  Helps that the mrkt closed. 
     
    Honestly, I know someone who gave some CigRx tablets to his wife, when her mother came to visit them for a week.  His wife claimed they "didn't work."  But, when she ran out of them, she asked my friend for some more (as her mother was still there).  So……………..  there ya go.  And i am NOT making this up.

  130. 130
    zman Says:

    Bob – I will have that ECT in the morning piece.

  131. 131
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: History of CSCO is that they ALWAYS beat by a penny and Chambers talks down the street so they can beat the next quarter.

  132. 132
    Bob Says:

    130: Thanks!

  133. 133
    cargocult Says:

    BOP- sounds like you could use my brownie recipe.

  134. 134
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    cargo — that had me LOL.  thanks!
     
    In all honesty (in spite of what i sound like), I'm not really a user of stuff… unless you count wine or the occassional Manhattan or 'tini.  Take no meds or daily vitamins.  But, if there is a shred of truth that CigRx can reduce the brain plaque associated with Nasty Brain Disease, then I see no harm in popping 1 or 2 a day. 

  135. 135
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — sounds like a full-on road show… NYC, Boston, conf calls.  Still on-going.

  136. 136
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BedTime Market STrategist
     
    Confidence Game
    Needless to say, today's reaction in the equity markets was exactly what we feared. A half measure meant to instill confidence actually undermined it. Adding to the mayhem is the fact that it is mid-August, with most trading desks in vacation mode the action is sloppier and more volatile than need be. This would be an optimal time for the Fed to attempt a measure of modest damage control. The problem is Chairman Bernanke does not have a speaking engagement on the calendar until the end of the month at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole Symposium. The only other Fed Governor speaking between now and then is Elizabeth Duke, who is talking tomorrow about the Community Reinvestment Act. She is not the person and that is not the topic where damage control can be done. There will be some Fed Presidents speaking but their views are more independent and they are not usually messengers of the Bernanke consensus. You have to wonder if the FOMC members simply thought that they would throw the market a bone, reverse the exit strategy and relax during the August slowdown until they reconvene with the economic community at the high profile Jackson Hole meeting. Now, due to the slow environment and lack of Fed activity, there will likely be a pall over this market until news or economic data gives way to a trend removing the uncertainty created by the Fed.
     
    A 2.8% sell off is painful from a P&L perspective but today's trading action was more sloppy than outright distressing. We have often heard complaints about the volume behind the rally. The volume behind today's sell-off was equally poor. Since the start of last year, there have been 23 sessions where the S&P 500 lost more than 2.5%, only 2 were slower than today and one was the Friday before the July 4th weekend last year. The other instance was the first week of last year, so it has been a while since we have seen such damage on such light volume. Today's volume was 23% slower than the average for 22 previous big down days. The 99 to 1 ratio at which decliners led advancers in the S&P 500 and the 47 to 1 ratio decliners led by in the Russell 2000 speak to the extreme one sidedness of the action. Buying the first day down rarely works, the bloodletting needs to run its course, and the faster the better. The good thing is Cisco is trading down in the after hours, which should spark some early downside follow through tomorrow. Hopefully, that will fuel an early push up towards 30 on the Vix and another increase in the Put/Call tomorrow. It is too early and more importantly there are too few people around to take a stand and say they should be bought tomorrow, but tomorrow should have better two way action. If we are down early, shorts probably should look to start covering and longs can start to pick away. This tape is all about making the high volatility and low volume work for you.

  137. 137
    zman Says:

    re 135, thanks much, maybe we are done this week or did they not have their plane tickets already booked?

  138. 138
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Guessing they will try to wrap it up this week.  The deeper we get into August, the less people want to make major investment decisions.  Actually, I tend to think that anyone who tries to raise funds in August has a bit of a whiff of desperation hanging about them.  But, JMO.

  139. 139
    zman Says:

    OAS on the tape with a good looking quarter, upped guidance but also upped planned spending. No operations update in the press release out so far. Estimates should rise nicely on the guidance, will have details in the post tomorrow.

    SSN – Schwab account received refund proceeds this evening.

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