Fin Reg Friday + SSN Annouces A Ripper of a Deal

Posted on by zman

 


Market Sentiment Watch: The "Financial Reform" Bill has seen a compromise that will put the bill on the president's desk by July 4th. Sounds like banks will be putting derivatives trading arms in subsidiaries ... not sure there is much in the way of implication outside the financials but its hard to say other than consumer costs are likely to rise. Yesterday = another sweltering day outside, another boring day on the trading floor. My kingdom for some fundamental news to grip the sector again. Probably going to have to wait, except for the occasional blurb from one of our names (see SSN below today and most probably BEXP next week), until mid July. On the economic front, news has become less than lackluster and the S&P continues to sag under a feeling of weakness combined with "who cares?" syndrome.

 

Ecodata Watch:

  • 1Q GDP Revision: 3% expectation and 3% last reading
  • Consumer Sentiment: We get this at 10 am EST, expectation is for the same reading as last month at 75.5.

In Today's Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Storage Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - SSN announces Niobrara sale - Corker!
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch

ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio)

  • $6,000
  • 99% Cash
  • Positions for the quick view are updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page.
  • Yesterday’s Trades: None

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $5,700
  • 50% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • Added (3) PXD July $65 calls for $3.10 with the stock at $65, off 3% on news that their JV in the Eagle Ford was completed ( a little buy the rumor sell the news at play here) and in a weak tape. This is an opening position and I don’t get the sense in this market that there is any reason to rush at the moment as pricing is pretty sloppy in E&P and in the market as a whole. I do think that the deal is a good one for PXD and that growth from the Eagle Ford will increasingly be a key driver the story going forward.

 

Commodity Watch

Crude oil inched up $0.23 to close at $76.74 yesterday. Trading remains lackluster / directionless.  This morning crude is trading unchanged.


Natural gas eased $0.05 to close at $4.75 yesterday after the EIA reported an in line with expectations injection to storage. Storage is now below year ago levels and this week's heat should drive it further in deficit territory. We are still quite well supplied with a 13% surplus to the five year average (see more below). Next week prices will be looking at a slight cooling trend weighed against the potential of the first named storm entering the Gulf as early as this weekend. This morning gas is trading up 4 cents.

  • Tropics Watch: Invest 93L has been upgraded to a 70% chance of development in the next 48 hours. One track puts this Low as a storm in the Gulf near Macondo mid next week. BP does not have the floating riser in place yet and a storm in the area could have dire consequences for the Gulf and for BP.

Natural Gas Storage Review


ZComments: Last week's Cooling Degree Day reading was 63. This week's forecast is 86 which will drive next Thursday's withdrawal report. In July 2006, when we saw the rare outlier,  a withdrawal during what is normally the heart of injection season, because of excessive heat and the readings then were also CDDs in the mid 80s. I would not expect that much of a dip in the seasonal storage pattern this year unless we see a move close to the 100 mark. Gas supply is about 7.0 Bcfgpd higher than it was in 2006 due to the shale plays. That's roughly the same as the contribution from the entire Gulf of Mexico.  We also have somewhat lower demand due to the economy. A number around 50 Bcf next week isn't out of the question however. Storms of course can throw a wrench in the monkey here but barring those, we have about 50/50 chance of still setting a new record storage high by the end of the injection season in October (skip down to the last graph). 


 

Stuff We Care About Today

SSN To Down Niobrara Acreage

Samson has entered into a binding agreement to sell 60% or 24,166 acres of its Goshen County, Wyoming, Niobrara play to a "large, U.S. - based independent". The sale price is dependent upon the ultimate structure of the deal"

  • All 24 K acres  - $79.1mm ($3,270 / acre, pre tax)
  • Without the formation of an Exploratory Unit that would protect some leases expiring this year - $69.8 mm ($2,900 / acre)
  • No exploratory unit formation and drilling operations don't commence prior to lease exploration (pretty unlikely) - $61 mm  ($2,525 / acre)

SSN retains a 4.8% royalty interest (receives net revenues for no operating costs expended).

Timing: The deal is tentatively schedule to close on July 26th, pending due diligence. Since this is the southern half of SSN's position, which is adjacent to the northern piece of EOG's much larger Niobrara piece I'd bet the buyer is EOG and that they will get what they want ... so the deal is more likely than not to work.

Nuthshell: Sum of the parts:

  • After the deal, Samson will still have 16,254 net acres in the play. If we employ the low end of the valuation range above that would value this piece at $41 mm or $0.57 per share.
  • The sold properties would have a pre tax range of $0.85 to $1.10 per share.
  • Finally, there are the 6 sections in the Bakken to consider. Since there is little running room left here I'd value them at about $15 per potential BOE of reserves which I put at about 1 million net barrels or $15 mm or $0.21 per share. 
  • Net debt at last update was 8 mm ($0.11 per share)
  • That comes to a potential quick back of the envelope acreage based NAV of $1.52 to $1.77 per share.
  • We continue to own the shares in the ZLT.

Other Stuff:

  • BP falls to fresh low overnight - their debt deal set for next week is anything but set yet and analysts are now thinking they will need to do a stock secondary. BP market cap now down a cool $100 billion.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  •  PXD - BMO raises target to $77 from $72, rating Outperform

127 thoughts on “Fin Reg Friday + SSN Annouces A Ripper of a Deal”

  4. Z: Monthly short positions in energy land. BP +289.8%, OII +85%, NBR +65.8%, BHI +44.8% & APC +48.9%.

  6. SSN — great example of turning over rocks and finding treasure amongst the squirmy, wiggly things. Kudos, z, for sharing your awesome Treasure Hunter skills.

  7. BP was hard to borrow last week, but it’s shown as available for shorting now on my platforms.

  8. BOP – Hey, thanks, I appreciate the comment coming from you, the veritable metal detector on the beach (KOG, EXXI etc). What’s next in your bag of tricks, LEI?

    By the way, on yahoo finance, I see they have a feature now (maybe it’s not that new but I don’t recall seeing it before) that on the main screen shows you a “people viewing XYZ, also viewed blah, blah, and blah”, kind of a neat little quick tool.

    If you type in SSN, you get back LEI, KOG, AEZ, BEXP, AXAS, MHR. Interesting to see LEI in there.

  9. Second system in the Atlantic, starting with a 10% chance of development. Busy season gearing up.

    http://www.crownweather.com/

    SSN holding at up 25 to 30% on the day. Crysball mentioned last night the rights offering at $0.57 acting as a gravitational force to hold prices down. At this point I will take additional shares at that price (just got a reminder from my broker to exercise my rights by month end).

  10. XACS#1 is back… and here’s what he has to say this morning —

    Bank from NYC trip…Credit tightening -4 1/2 on the day….being short equities is probably a little riskier than it has been so far this week…shapes of bank CDS curves continue to indicate that current credit spread action reflects changing views on credit risk and not the beginning of a new credit crisis…..

  13. Note the move in EOG today, people are thinking it’s them that took the 24K Niobrara acres from SSN, and thinking that’s not a bad price. Ya know, it’s not inconceivable that once they have a good look at that land they don’t just decide to take out SSN for the rest. Kudos to SSN for not just selling the whole company to them but instead trying to accrue more value and make a go of it in this play.

  14. HT pointed out that little KOG is almost always worth buying for a ST trade when it dips below 3.30. Missed it the other day. Sorry I did now.

  17. #11 note for all exerciseing SSN rights:

    Various custodians attempt to push earlier cut off dates and times through their respective corpoate action systems. Example, CSchwab wants 6/28 by 7pm and MStanleySBarney wants 6/29 by 6pm.

    When it’s found money it’s not worth pushing the 5pm ET cutoff on 6/30 so ante up.

    Most excellent find Z.

  18. Thanks Eli – I agree and I see what you are saying as my deal is through Charlie.

    Market = another day of directionless trading.

  19. Z- what is the ratio for buying SSN shares? How many shares can I buy based on what I own.

  20. SSN rights

    Your Choices:

    ■Subscribe for Offer A: $865.50 for 1,500 ADSs, subject to proration

    ■Subscribe for Offer B: $4,327.50 for 7,500 ADSs, subject to proration

    ■Subscribe for Offer C: $8,655.00 for 15,000 ADSs, subject to proration

    ■Subscribe for Offer D: $12,727.46 for 22,058 ADSs, subject to proration

    ■Decline/Take No Action: If you do not wish to participate in this offer, no further action is required

  21. #21 – but check with your individual custodian (position size and discription dependant). They will provide a written discription of your options.

  23. #21,Eli, can I inquire where you got that? I’m having trouble getting info from Think or swim…

  26. Z – shouldn’t prospects for TD in GOM be positive for HK and other land based E&Ps?

  29. Re: #26, 29, thank you, yes I own, I received no e-mails or any alerts at all…

  31. #30-same for me, JB, and TD Amer deadline has passed-I am steamed-first time TD has really let me down.

  34. Re: #32, choices, I think we are in the right here…I’m sending the broker instructions consistent with #21 above…no question we are entitled to the shares and should have been properly noticed…to make matters worse I don’t have all day today to resolve this

  36. JB-TD is passing the buck, prob same with ThinkorSwim-they say that it is responsibility of 3d party vendor after they obtain shareholder details from brokerage firm.

  37. Good morning.

    The astro looks very negative after noon – we will see. If it plays out then we could be looking at 1065 or possibly 1055 by the end of today. Monday looks positive.

  38. Re: #37, choices, I think we have a good and legitimate claim to the shares, trying to contact TOS…

  39. RE: #39 con’t SSN exercise…TOS is advising that I send an e-mail and the corporate actions crew will respond…

  40. I called Schwab; the guy said he didn’t see it but I did have shares. I said I was looking at the rights offering. He called another department and then said he had to hand-write the order.

  41. All on SSN rights:

    Your broker or custodian has a legal duty to attempt. You want to look for a section called “corporate actions” and if past their cutoff, ask for a person.

    No excuses…..I have never seen them not get it done when pressed.

  42. JB-TD says they will process, of course with all of the caveats, etc, best efforts, proration, etc, etc.

  43. Re 42 – agreed, they have to try up until the 30th.

    Proration wasn’t going to be a problem with this deal…now it really should be oversubscribed. Unless people are just that sleepy.

  45. I placed an order at Schwab and was told i would not find out how many shares will be allocated to me until the end of the purchase period (30th) based on how many orders are out there. Nothing like a 25% gain in one day to get everyone’s attention.

  46. TD rep.put me with corporate actions and they processed rights exercise with no problem……….same for Schwab….only etrade makes yo go thrhough the hoops and send in paerwork to their outsourced corporate actions function….on a bes efforts basis.

  49. Could be that, could be supposed drop in imports next week. This week’s crude imports figure may have been the peak for 2010. Seasonally that would make sense although it 93L threatens you may see a rush to port next week and then a dip the following week.

  51. Brazil v Portugal ends 0-0, as Intern #1 says, boring as watching whale snot dry. Which is slightly more interesting than this market.

  52. I’m wondering if weak hands will be selling SSN shares big time come the end of the month. Maybe they will save some more good news to release at that time.

  53. RE: #45, TAT, from where TAT is trading now, $3.60 corresponds with topside daily channel-line resistance, a break above on good vol should then find support here, if $3.60 is rejected, I was thinking about $3.30 on a pullback to 100 SMA support for another long try…

  55. Not sure if I’m being jerked around or TD is simply covering their — but I am now informed that I do not qualify because I purchased shares on May 14 and the offer is only available to those shareholders of record as of May 18-cannot find a prospectus but maybe I was asleep at the switch-maybe the just the breaks-ie, missed it by one day.

  56. Z: Where do most of our imports come into geographically? Can the crude from Cushing get easily to any of these import areas? Just wondering if we can import less and take from our increased production. Same question for EFS as production ramps. Can one import area be monitored or are all lumped together?

  57. SSN – With the rights offering and the worst case deal hear, they will have over $0.60 a share in cash. Then you have the rest of the Niobrara, and their Bakken acreage.

    My guess is that they get the rights offering done and that takes the lid of the stock.

    As long as the deal doesn’t come apart you are looking a pretty fad spread to potential. Can’t call it an arb spread but it would similar.

    Thanks JB.

  60. re 59. Awfully cheap for BEXP, news just around the corner. I’m thinking it could be $20+ if the Montana Bakken well is successful.

    Does anyone see the date on SSN that you had to hold the shares on to be entitled to take the rights offering?

  62. Z – Although, I’m already a fool for not owning SSN, I’m assuming you obviously feel they offer good value at 0.75 still?

    Gold might within reach of a weekly close at an alltime high if it breaks through.

  65. Re 56. Ouch and thanks, that answers my question.

    V – I am about to buy some for an account that didn’t own it and so can’t take the rights deal.

    At $0.75 I think it is half way to summer potential.

    Caveat on the SSN:

    Why didn’t EOG (and I really think it’s them) take out the company?
    A) SSN wouldn’t sell out for a reasonable price or
    B) EOG didn’t want to pay for the northern portion because they think the play may be pinched out there. I’m just guessing, acreage could be fine but it is a question that I have in mind.

    Either way, I’m about to add more at $0.74.

    Occam – re TGA – still very early for my understanding level there.

  68. The stoichastics on HK look like they could be ready for a turn. I’m no voodoo expert though.

  69. Fun with models:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

    This is part of the math that goes into those squiggly storm tracks.

    If you click submit on the right hand side of the 7 choices and the FWD (forward) you can watch each of the models play out.

    The HWRF puts a hurricane on Pensacola 108 hours from now. Other tracks put one in the mid Gulf or at the Tex/Mex border.

  71. Rig Count Watch:

    Oil up 9 to 583, vs 219 year ago
    Gas up 5 to 958, vs 687

    Horizontal up 6 to 833, vs 390 last year.

  72. AEZ..strong BUY.. CXO to buy second largest independent producer in southeastern New Mexico in $ 1 billion plus value deal. Think Abo / Avalon play.

  75. Word to the wise IR guy watch: Never put an operations update on Friday and worse than that, never do it mid day.

    CXPO on the tape with an ops update, mostly fluff as they don’t have a rate on an E. Texas Haynesville Shale well, only that it is at TD. Then they trot out the oh-so-tired mention of the Kardell well, that they had a piece of that DVN drilled and registered the biggest rate to date in the H.S. Thing about that well is it fell off faster than just about any other well as it was basically open choke and the industry knows the basically sabotaged the EUR their by driving for the all time high IP. Bad idea and it goes to me continuing to stay away from the name as they still don’t get that we are simply not impressed by that.

  76. HUGE positive day for the credit markets… just huge.

    IG -5 1/2 bps tighter

    HY up a whole 1 point

    Huge.

  83. Thanks West, I recall CHK’s entry there, Aubrey used to talk that area down a lot I thought. Not anymore I guess.

  91. Jat – I’d #89 is enough of a reason.

    AAA – yep. Taking a break from the name myself for a little while.

  92. File under “This Might Be Interesting” watch —

    Gastar (GST) is in the final stages of completing their Wildman #6H in East Texas. This is a horizontal well drilled into the Glen Rose limestone. There have been strong oil shows in this formation on vertical wells. Going horizontal and acidizing could turn this into an economic oil play… if it works. Should hear well results some time soon.

    Anyone else following this?

  94. BOP – only when they report, can’t recall who else has a GR Lime oil well reported, seems like someone big talked about one recently.

  95. GST — they sold their australian holdings for a nice profit and paid down all their debt. They have acreage positions in E Tx, the Marcellus, and some coalbed methane stuff. If their Bossier acreage (ETx) also proves prospective for the Glen Rose… the stock should see a nice bump up. Just worth putting on the radar screen.

  97. Disclosure — I bot some GST down here. Someone is selling, don’t know who, don’t know why. Don’t think it’s possible (yet) to know the results of the Glen Rose well… so don’t think it can be that. We shall see. But $4.00 is such a nice, round number…

  98. z — it could be that high, yes. Given that it is a 5k ft horizonal that needs to be acidized, could (maybe?) see some high initial flow rates. Or not. This is pretty much a snarly wildcat well. Nicely named, Wildman #6.

  99. BOP – gotya, this is number 6, the last ones have been gassy but here it is a liquids target, right?

  100. Oil and gas continuing to climb post NYMEX close. Stocks not really caring that much. Prices are nothing if not collapsible if nothing happens in the Gulf. Recall the phenomenon last year up $0.25 on the whiff of a storm and down $0.50 when it didn’t happen.

  101. Yes, this is a liquids play. And none of the others have been horizontal.

    Company being all sneaky about the well. Reef pointed out that they pulled a GR map from their recent presentation. Thought is that they are out there, actively leasing up add’l acreage. If true, I would tend to think that was a positive… wouldn’t you?

  102. BOP – yep. I’ve played them in the past but for the deep Bossier. I expected them to be eaten by CHK a long time ago but that got blocked and so I only have fleeting interest from time to time. Thanks for bringing it up.

  103. Deep Bossier wells are relatively expen$ive. If this one works, better economics with cheaper wells and oily production… anyway, worth watching.

  107. Bossier lies at about 18,000 ft… Glen Rose is about 8,500 ft deep (then 5,000 ft horizontal). They have to drill thru the GR to get to the Bossier… so, they have existing GR well logs (and oil shows) from previous Bossier wells. They guesstimated the GR well costs about $2.5mm (vs almost $9mm for the Bossier wells).

  108. BOP – so plenty of well control, probably some 3D, wondering how much of the acreage is liquids rich…they probably are too.

  109. Where the Glen Rose comes to the surface, it’s a pretty fun formation for us Rock Hounds. It’s also known for it’s Dinosaur Footprints. Cool, eh?

  112. EOG getting a big lift today, they could pay for this deal or SSN out of cash flow without a thought to it.

  116. GST trades thin… AND there was an active seller today. Have no idea why. But, since this is a “well-watching stock,” the seller probably spooked someone(s) else into selling. I checked. As far as we can tell, there is NO reason to think the Wildman #6H (Glen Rose well) is not progressing along. In the end, it may not be as good as hoped… but, we don’t know that yet.

  118. (“Mahalo”… makes me think of palm trees and beaches and waves and surf boards and tasty rum drinks… thank you!)

    Have a good weekend, all.

  119. BEXP at conference next week, possible info release prior???

    from Yahoo:
    Brigham Exploration to Participate in Jefferies 2nd Annual Boston Energy Day. Members of Brigham Exploration Company’s (NASDAQ:BEXP – News) management team will be participating in one-on-one meetings at Jefferies 2nd Annual Boston Energy Day on Monday, June 28, 2010 and Tuesday, June 29, 2010 at the Boston Harbor Hotel. Details regarding the conference are as follows:

    Dates: Monday, June 28, 2010 and Tuesday, June 29,2010
    Participants: Lance Langford – Executive Vice President of
    Operations
    Robert M. Roosa – Finance Manager

  121. JY – hard to say, that’s a closed door meet and greet and indepth update. No need for them to pr anything along with it but they are overdue. Could be that they are saving it for post 7/4. I know they have 2 wells that are complete, could be four, plus the Montana well.

  125. BOP thanks for heads-up on GST:  lugged some stock forever thinking mgt might stumble and get something right.  Big print at close Fri. hopefully cleans someone up:.  I hate it when  I lose faith just before The Turn!

  126. RMD — thanks.  But, to credit where credit is due, thanks to Reef for highlighting the importance and potential of GST's Wildman #6H well.  If that well comes in and defines a new unconventional oil play, stock will shoot up.  If the well doesn't work out, the current assets backstop the value here.  One thing to keep in mind, tho, GST has not been bringing a lot of new production on at the lower nat gas prices, so 2Q production will be lower YoY (and maybe QTQ).  That should not "surprise" anyone who follows the stock… but it always seems to.  Maybe that was why someone was selling on Friday?  To get GST "off the books" by quarter end?  Or, maybe someone just wanted to show lower energy sector exposure at quarter end.  Who knows.  There are a million reasons to sell… and only one reason to buy. 
    Hope this works for all of us.  But with GST's current acreage position, if the Glen Rose proves to be economic for oil, then the stock is gonna rock, for sure.

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