22
Jun

Tuesday Pause

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

  

Market Sentiment Watch: Enthusiasm Curbed. What started out as a very strong day yesterday on the promise of a yuan revaluation ended in the red and at the day's lows as investors began to doubt how far and how fast the Chinese central bank would allow their currency to appreciate.  Moreover, analysts pointed out mid day that if Europe weakens further, a free floating yuan could fall against the dollar. It's never easy.  Volumes were summer-listless during the rise and fall of the market yesterday. In energy land, news remains in short supply outside of the BP tragedy. A federal judge will rule tomorrow on whether or not to overturn the 6 month ban on deep water drilling in the Gulf which in the suit is labeled as capricious and arbitrary. If that happens look for bounces in the offshore crowd (especially RIG and DO on the rig side and ATPG on the E&P side and HAL and SLB on the diversified services side). I added a couple of plays on rising natural gas in the near term for the ZIM but otherwise remained fairly quiet.  

 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get existing home sales at 10 am EST, estimate of 6.10 mm.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – WIOWIO (CHK)
  4. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

  • ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

    • $6,000
    • 99% Cash
    • Yesterday’s Trades: None - waiting on catalysts to get closer.

 

  • ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)
    • $9,400
    • 80% Cash
    • Yesterday’s Trades:
      • HK – Added (15) July $23 calls for $0.52 with the stock at $23.08.
      • SWN – Added (10) July $46 calls with the stock at $44.90.


Commodity Watch

Crude oil rose $0.64 to close at $77.82 yesterday. This morning crude is trading off a buck plus on weaker equity futures and a stronger dollar.

  • Early Read on Inventories:
    • Crude: DOWN 1.3 mm barrels - seasonally this makes sense
    • Gasoline: DOWN 0.1 mm barrels - looking for a bigger withdrawal here and definitely not the large build we saw last year this week so look for another contraction in the YoY and 5yr comparisons.
    • Distillates: UP 1.3 mm barrels

Natural gas fell $0.12 (after initially rising as much as $0.18 on hot temps) to close at $4.87 yesterday in what appeared to be profit taking.  This morning gas is trading off a dime.

  • Tropics Watch:
    • Tropical wave 93 L now given a 40% chance of development in the next 48 hours
    • Accuweather raised it's forecast for named storms from a range of 16 to 18 to a range of 18 to 21.  Only five years in the last 160 have seen 18 named storms with the last being 2005, the year of Katrina with 28 named storms.

 

Stuff We Care About Today

WIOWIO (Part IV)

CHK - The Original Gas Major

  • Managment - Strong track record of value adds, also a bit of a gunslinger attitude when they like a play (Haynesville acquisitions all the way to the top) or the Woodford (claimed the didn't like it and sold out to BP in a quick sale that still brought a more than fair price). Aggressive. Smart. Stubbornly willing to outspend cash flow for extended periods despite prices due to prior lease commitments. Good hedgers.
  • Assets -

    • all onshore and in the U.S.
    • Leadership positions in the Marcellus, Haynesville and Bossier shales, number 2 position in the Fayetteville, and Banrett, sizable positions in the Granite Wash of the Texas panhandle and in the Eagle Ford, and also have positions in 10 (or so) up and coming oilier shales.
    • Reserves:

      • Booked reserves of 15.8Tcfe  ($1.76 / Mcfe)
      • CHK puts potential reserves at over 80 Tcfe (obviously a lot less per Mcfe but without getting pie in the sky high, a closer target is 20 to 22 Tcfe by 2012 which would yield a price per Mcfe of $1.33 vs current TEV.)
    • Thinking is that they will make a nice gas subsidiary for a larger company someday, perhaps a foreign Major.
  • Production:

    • Profile - 90% natural gas (as of 1Q10) but like just about all onshore
    • Growth dependent entirely of level of spend. At present they are looking for:

      • 2010: +8 to 10% (Impressive for a firm this size)
      • 2011: +16 to 18%
  • What's going on right now with it? Basing action in the chart. They are well hedged for this year. The Street continues to view comments from management with an overly skeptical eye (same problem persists at smaller and somewhat look-alike HK).
  • Valuation: Cheapish

    • 2010: TEV / EBITDA: 5.5x
    • 2011: TEV / EBITDA: 5.6x - pretty cheap given the expected growth
  • Nutshell: This one I hold for the long term. Maybe they get taken out for a premium and maybe I hold it long enough to see them monetize enough assets at premium to market prices to erode the cheap to EBITDA multiples shown above. If they break with discipline in the next cycle in 2011, when rig counts are supposed to be falling as acreage commitments decline then I will punt from the ZLT.

 

Other Stuff

  • AEZ - Shareholders approve increase in authorized share count from 100 to 150 mm shares.
  • TGA - short review later this week.
  • Deep water moratorium in court today, decision tomorrow.
  • PXD - India's reliance takes $1.35 B stake in Texas gas field - more details later

 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • SD - Wunderlich initiates with a Buy, target $10
  • NOG - Wunderlich initiates with Buy, target $20
  • DNR - coverage restarted at Barclays at Equal weight
  • PDE - lifted to Outperform at Howard Weil

 

117 Responses to “Tuesday Pause”

  1. 1
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Stocks Snap Longest Rally in 11 Months; U.S. Futures, Oil Fall
    2010-06-22 12:26:39.677 GMT

    By Stephen Kirkland
    June 22 (Bloomberg) — Stocks and U.S. futures fell, with the MSCI World Index snapping the longest rally in 11 months, as governments prepared to cut spending and tighten bank rules. The yuan weakened after yesterday’s surge on China’s plan to expand the currency’s trading range against the dollar.
    The MSCI World Index of stocks in 24 developed nations lost
    0.8 percent at 1:15 p.m. in London. The MSCI gauge for emerging markets dropped 1.3 percent, ending the longest stretch of gains since 2005. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped
    0.4 percent. The yuan depreciated 0.2 percent per dollar. Copper retreated for the fourth day in five sessions and crude oil declined for the first time in three days.
    Leaders of the Group of 20 industrialized nations meet June
    26 to consider ways to reduce deficits and tackle unprecedented levels of government debt without harming the global economic recovery. In the U.K., Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne lowered the country’s economic forecast and announced spending cuts and some tax increases to narrow the budget gap.
    “Investors are worried developed nations won’t be able to support their economies,” said Hiroshi Morikawa, a strategist in Tokyo at MU Investments Co., which manages $14 billion.
    “People are in no mood to take on risk.”
    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index of equities in 18 western European countries fell 1 percent, snapping a nine-day rally, the longest winning streak in 11 months. Basic resources stocks led the retreat, with BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, falling 2.5 percent in London. BNP Paribas SA led declines by the region’s banks, falling 3.3 percent in Paris after Fitch Ratings cut its credit rating on France’s biggest lender.

    Canon, Mitsui

    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.9 percent, its first drop in nine days. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s biggest gold producer, declined 1.8 percent in Sydney. Canon Inc., a Japanese camera maker that counts Europe as its biggest market, dropped 2.7 percent in Tokyo. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., the operator of the world’s largest merchant fleet, retreated 1.8 percent after freight rates slumped for a 17th consecutive day.
    “With the gains we had in markets in recent days, and given that the ongoing economic problems are still very much around us, there’s room for profit taking at these levels,”
    said Francisco Salvador, co-strategist at Iberian Equities in Madrid. “The yuan revaluation has not come with the strength that many expected, nor it will have the wide effect many hoped for.”

    U.S. Futures

    The decline U.S. index futures signaled the S&P 500 may extend yesterday’s 0.4 percent retreat. Sales of U.S. previously owned homes rose 6 percent to a 6.12 million annual rate in May, to the highest level in six months, as buyers rushed to beat a June tax-credit deadline, economists said before a data from the National Association of Realtors due at 10 a.m. in Washington.
    The MSCI Emerging Markets Index ended its longest stretch of gains since September 2005. The Dubai Financial Market General Index lost 1.4 percent after index provider MSCI Inc.
    kept the United Arab Emirates as a frontier market, disappointing some investors who anticipated an upgrade to emerging market status. South Korea’s won declined 0.9 percent against the dollar to lead declines in major currencies.
    China’s yuan weakened the most since 2008 on speculation the central bank will intervene to limit gains after dropping a two- year peg to the dollar over the weekend, a move that sent the Chinese currency surging 0.4 percent yesterday.
    The yen strengthened, approaching a one-week high against the euro and climbing against all 16 of its major counterparts, while the Swiss franc rose to a record against the euro.

    U.K. Protecting Rating

    The pound weakened 0.4 percent to $1.4697, extending declines after announcement of the U.K.’s emergency budget.
    Osborne is seeking to prevent the loss of Britain’s top grade investment rating through austerity in public spending.
    Copper for delivery in three months fell 1.7 percent to
    $6,495 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, after rising
    2.6 percent yesterday, the most in a week. Oil futures for July delivery dropped 1.4 percent to $76.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
    Sales of corporate bonds are increasing, with companies around the world issuing $17 billion of notes yesterday, more than three times the daily average of the past two months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. HeidelbergCement AG, the world’s third-largest cement maker, and ENI SpA, Italy’s biggest energy company, are leading sales in Europe today. The Heidelberg, Germany-based cement company is offering 500 million euros of bonds due December 2015, while Rome-based ENI is selling 10-year securities in its first bond deal in almost a year, bankers familiar with the transactions said.

  2. 2
    elijahwc Says:

    PXD – From the FT:

    India’s Reliance Industries is expected to announce in New York as early as Tuesday that it will pay $1.35bn to acquire a stake in a Texas shale gas field controlled by Pioneer Natural Resources of the US.

    The deal, to be unveiled after “the close of business” in New York on Tuesday, would be Reliance’s second purchase of a US shale gas interest in as many months, as India’s largest private sector oil refining and production group builds a foothold in overseas markets.

    EDITOR’S CHOICE
    Reliance Industries eyes more US shale gas – Jun-13.Petrobras to invest $220bn in new fields – Mar-20.Oil struggles as dollar strengthens – Mar-19.Mukesh Ambani wins landmark gas case – May-07..Reliance, controlled by Mukesh Ambani, India’s richest man, will buy a 45 per cent holding in the Eagle Ford shale gas field in south Texas, people familiar with the matter said.

    In April, Reliance paid $1.7bn for a joint venture with Atlas Energy, which has a shale gas field on the borders of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and New York states.

    more: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fb6f96e0-7d64-11df-a0f5-00144feabdc0.html

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Muted opening. NG will be watching that potential storm all week and Thursday’s gas number should be another crowd pleaser, next week’s number more so.

  4. 4
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Comments from various trading desks….

    it’s so quiet, in a race between this market and paint drying, the paint is winning.

  5. 5
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: CSFB analyst Wolff mentioned today HK is 23 below his NAV and also recommending WLL and BEXP. Those are first time for him. His comments are in the oil daily I forwarded.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Group looks pretty indecisive / bored here.

    May add some more HK on this pullback as a bet another bounce in gas and the fact that it still is lagging year to date and is well hedged, growing quickly, doing what they promised, etc.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Tom – thanks. It’s like he’s reading…

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Anyone see a comment other than that one on HK? Awfully weak out of the gate compared to its gassy peers today. Feels like a downgrade. BOP, you see anything.

  9. 9
    andy Says:

    HK – SWN – maybe weakness movie related?

  10. 10
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Pritchard mentions HK in their morning note… but I don’t have the deets.

  11. 11
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    andy — did you watch the movie? I didn’t. Wonder what people thought…

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – HK

    Added (10) HK July $20 calls for $1.27 with the stock off 3% on the open on no news I can lay hands on. Could be that HBO documentary on fraccing that ran last night.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    BOP – I had a buddy tape it for me, will watch tonight. I saw the previews a week back. Gas in the well water, flames coming out of the kitchen sink … has to be bad casing. Can’t be the frac, too much rock in between.

  14. 14
    elijahwc Says:

    HK – Pritchard says nearby bennie

    Reliance Energy may possibly pay $1.35 billion for a 45% stake in PXD’s Eagle
    Ford Acreage. PXD has approximately 248,000 net acres which are prospective for the Eagle Ford Shale. This works
    out to approximately $12,000/acre. The price per acre could be less if other assets are included in the deal. Companies
    that could benefit from a potential deal are MUR ($55.64-B-$75.00) and HK ($21.12-B-$32.00). (Deacon/Berman)

  15. 15
    skimo Says:

    FYI
    http://www.reuters.com/article/idAFLDE65L17E20100622?rpc=44

  16. 16
    andy Says:

    bop – no watch

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the early deets Eli.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Going to take my time adding to names like HK (a little yesterday (at the peak), a little today). That name can move in mysterious, counter group ways, for longer than you’d think. If the India/PXD deal is just for a piece of PXD’s Eagle Ford shale, then that would be very good news for HK, who has 360,000+ acres and who hasn’t seen much of any market response to their three areas within the play.

  19. 19
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Cramer also recommended PXD for money managers that want to show that they are in the right names by quarter end.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    BOP – Any credit thoughts this am? Also, anything from HT?

  21. 21
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    andy — thanks. I never got around to seeing Al Gore’s movie either. Just never found the time.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    Re 19: Figures, huge run, moved from perpetual discount to fairly valued, so he’s all over it.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    BOP – From what I can tell this one is in the vein of Michael Moore.

  24. 24
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HT is asleep.

    Credit is slightly red. But only slightly. Stocks actually pulled credit up at open.

    TED continues to drift tighter (better). But not in a lot of hurry to get there. Currently around +42.0 bps, down from the wide of +48.1 bpx.

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    Home sales came in at 5.66 mm for May, light to estimates.

    BOP – so in other words, everyone is asleep or watching soccer and it’s France playing S. Africa so not a lot of excitement there either.

    I saw where the mortgage reset program is going down in flames. More people are getting kicked out of the program than are getting approval to have their loans permanently modified. This is a perfect example of govt. intervention in the free markets failing to help and actually making things worse. People that should have gone into foreclosure sooner are doing it later with less money in their savings than they would have had. Sheesh.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    Activating the backup site as we are experiencing intermittent slowness today, so if you can’t get in here, please see

    http://zmanbackup.wordpress.com/2010/06/22/tuesday-pause/

  27. 27
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #25 — AMEN to that statement!

  28. 28
    1520sbroad Says:

    #25 – I’m from the government and I’m here to help. Ha!

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Group taking a much bigger hit than the market, albeit on lightish volumes. Gassy names worse than the rest. Maybe it is the HBO piece.

  30. 30
    elijahwc Says:

    PXD – Hatefest in progress. What am I missing? Is 12,500 an acre for a 45% stake actually bad???? Who’d thunk this?

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    PXD – That would be a strong price. I think the market just doesn’t care today, group all taking a bit of a hit here.

  32. 32
    Geno Says:

    I watched it it almost made me physically ill very incinerary especially with the BP mess

  33. 33
    cargocult Says:

    It is so easy to rag on “government”.

    Last I looked we live in a country that offers more access to the levers of power than just about anywhere else on the planet. And more opportunities for changing it. Not to say we couldn’t do better. Perhaps folks want to offer examples of countries where govt is working better? Maybe I am out of the loop. Maybe corporations are doing a better job of taking care of us.

    I think the complaining is more an indicator of discontent brought on by a poor economy.It seems that when folks are making money they don’t feel like complaining, or maybe I am being to generous.

  34. 34
    Alhambra Says:

    Halftime for both of the world cup games, maybe something can happen for the next 20 mins or so.
    Gasland is available to view on HBO On Demand, free for those who have subscribed to the channel, at least it is for me. (which I plan to watch later)

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    Geno / Reef / Wyoming / TexW – got any thoughts on how prevalent problems with wells are? Is that a surface casing integrity issue with the gas and the muddy color of the drinking water? I know there is no way the frac fluid could be migrating up 10,000 feet to the depth of the water wells.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    Fear over Gasland is that it adds fuel to the regulatory fire but honestly, this is knee jerk and should have already been in the stocks as everyone knew the documentary was coming and what was in it.

  37. 37
    pwdrhound Says:

    PQ on a pullback today. Downgraded.

    PetroQuest Energy Inc. (PQ, $8.08, -$0.26, -3.12%) has risen sharply over the last month and neared Capital One’s price target, leading the firm to downgrade the independent energy company to neutral from add and recommending profit taking.

  38. 38
    elduque Says:

    BBBBaltic is still sliding

  39. 39
    Geno Says:

    They never gave any information about how deep the production was in the areas where they lit the water on fire. Don’t know if there was blow outs that might have charged up shallow sands. That is the problem no science at all.

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    Oily names mostly red save OAS, SSN and a few others which are barely trading. Gassy names off the lows. Tomorrow we get new home sales (probably also poor) and inventories which should inspire a little more activity in the group. If that judge overturns the administration’s ban, I’d look for a big bump in Service and in ATPG, NFX, maybe APC. APA and the smaller Shelf names probably move up to in sympathy.

  41. 41
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Was told HK bonds up 3 points today. Would not happen if big fear from Gasland. Over reaction in my book. CNBC had mentioned this morning that the China currency could go lower ( Not good for commodities ).

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Tom – thanks.

  43. 43
    Nicky Says:

    Good morning to all. What an incredibly boring day in the market. Look to be working on a wave iv correction (down) with wave v needed to the upside once iv is complete. Ideally we will see lower levels tested ie 1090 – 1100 (1087 should hold if we are still heading higher) and then move up to make higher highs (higher than yesterday) before the larger cycles roll over.

  44. 44
    Geno Says:

    93L 50% chance of forming

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    Geno – any thoughts re 35?

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    93L – Bastardi today saying the weather pattern is pregnant for development, on a line for Texas.

    http://media.myfoxtampabay.com/myfoxhurricane/

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Thanks for waking me up Nicky.

  48. 48
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Has Bastardi talked about the switch from El Nino to La Nina ( not sure of spelling ) and the effect on weather patterns. I heard we will have hot summer but also warm winter.

  49. 49
    Jerome Blank Says:

    SSN continues to form an interesting daily consolidation triangle, with an inner ascending wedge…support at .56, a confluence of 100 day SMA and trendline support and resistance at .65, chart updated….

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  50. 50
    Jerome Blank Says:

    UNG, by a few ticks has 20/100 crossover support, the first time this has occured in some time…

  51. 51
    Geno Says:

    re 35 I can’t see how deep fracing would impact the shallow water zones. It just does not work that way. Could be old wells with casing integrity. I can’t see a new well with the problem. Maybe if you refrac a well and your casing has deteriorated you could get effect up the hole.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Geno – my thoughts as well, no way for a 10,000 foot horizontal section frac to communicate with a 300 foot deep water well. Some wells go deeper, still not way to communicate through several thousand feet of rock.

  53. 53
    Geno Says:

    The frac would have to come up the back side like the BP well did and then break down the surface pipe shoe and go into the water sands. Possible I quess but you would see it in the treating pressures and well performance.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Sort of sounds like he should have named the film hotairland:

    http://www.energyindepth.org/2010/06/debunking-gasland/

  55. 55
    VTZ Says:

    Did anyone see the Saudis as a source funding in the credits?

  56. 56
    Wyoming Says:

    35 Has many limbs of discussion. I have not watched the show, just running off of past comments;

    The Frac bill brings up the issue of frac fluids being hazardous (Clean Water Act exemption to be revoked) and yet they do not mention that in some instances some of the chems are found in higher concentrations of our food.

    Geno is correct, perhaps there are some older wells which have allowed gas migration to enter the water table.

    Perhaps the issue is a poor cement job on the surface string.

    One source could be natural fractures. Geology is dynamic, albeit on a slower scale.

    Someone mentioned awhile back (think it was Reef)that there may be water disposal wells that corroded. These wells are more regulated and designed with corrosive environments in mind.

    All these and more are possible. A simple solution to many of these issues would be to start incorporating Swellpackers into the casing designs. They would add a little more security to sealing off the wellbore from the surface / water table.

    BTW, swell packers may have helped the Macondo as I don’t think they brought cement up to the previous casing shoes. They only cost from $5k to $25k+ depending upon size and differential pressure rating, they also work in openhole.

    BTW, BTW, BP really should look at designing a top kill, especially if they may have to evac for a hurricane.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Stocks off today may have more to do with the 2 day reversal in natural gas back below $5 than the flick.

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    From an interview with the film maker of Gasland:

    Q.

    What was your overall objective? Is there something specific that you are advocating?

    A.

    Now there is. What we’re talking about here is a five-year moratorium nationwide to figure out what’s going on. There’s an E.P.A. study right now, but it doesn’t include a health study. A health study is absolutely necessary at this point.

  59. 59
    VTZ Says:

    Maybe he owns a bunch of LNG plays.

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Maybe he owns natural gas futures. Or a blanket factory.

  61. 61
    VTZ Says:

    or Canadian NG stocks.

  62. 62
    Jerome Blank Says:

    HK pulling back into the daily channel, first support here at the 20 day SMA at about $20, HK holds its X’s on the current P&F buy signal until a print of $19.50…

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    re 61 – good point, though I’d bet he drives up there next.

    Thanks JB.

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    Hoss – sent response to your email.

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    Bidding more of the HK calls around a buck, so far no joy.

  66. 66
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Rumor of drilling moratorium in Marcellus.

  67. 67
    VTZ Says:

    Z – You don’t seem too worried that nat gas will roll back much further towards 4?

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    V – Thinking $4.40 low.

    http://www.barchart.com/charts/futures/NGN10

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    Tom – I very much doubt it.

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – HK

    Added (10) HK $20 July Calls for $1.00 with the stock at $20.05.

  71. 71
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: 66 I doubt it as well but I guess the shorts have to come up with something.

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    Judge rules against Obamatorium, HAL spiking up now.

  73. 73
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #72 — I see pigs flying by my window now.

    I honestly didn’t think a judge would rule against a sitting President. Wow.

  74. 74
    PackMan Says:

    Z- you launched HK & the group ! must be some type of news — or just an algo !!

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – HAL

    Added (20) more HAL July $28 calls for $0.70 with the stock at $26.90. Judge rules against the Administration’s 6th month deep water moratorium.

  76. 76
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    But that blanket drilling ban was just bad bad bad policy.

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    BOP – I have a flying pig hanging over my desk. The judge granted a preliminary restraining order that keeps the moratorium from going into effect.

  78. 78
    PackMan Says:

    White House sez it will immediately appeal.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    Pack – yeah, they were ready for that.

  80. 80
    PackMan Says:

    sell the news algos now pounding the group even harder !

  81. 81
    PackMan Says:

    ATPG went to 12.60+, now sub 12

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    Pack – that’s the Presidential appeal cha-cha. I should have waited a bit to add more HAL but it’s early in the game here and everything I wrote last week about rising earnings into 2Q still stands there.

  83. 83
    Popeye Says:

    Energy in Depth is a great site and I’m hoping that HK survives a test of 20 today.

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    “The president strongly believes…that continuing to drill at these depths without knowing what happened does not make any sense, and puts the safe of those involved…and the environment in the Gulf at a danger that the president does not believe we can afford right now”

    But it was OK to kick BP’s and RIG’s and HAL’s asses before you “knew what happened”? Sheesh.

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    Today’s S&P action now looking a lot like yesterday’s.

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    Much better food for thought than Gasland

    Haynesville:

    http://www.haynesvillemovie.com/

  87. 87
    Popeye Says:

    Drilling moratorium blocked by judge.

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    re 87. Yes and the Administration is already appealing. Not sure what the impact of the ruling would be since the MMS is charge of granting permits and they are controlled by the White House. So they could just find a reason to delay permits and then an oil company wanting to drill would have to sue to get their permit saying that the reason was the water depth and nothing more. Hmmmm.

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    From the judge’s comments:

    “An invalid agency decision to suspend drilling of wells in depths of over 500 feet simply cannot justify the immeasurable effect on the plaintiffs, the local economy, the Gulf region, and the critical present-day aspect of the availability of domestic energy in this country,”

    Honestly I didn’t realize they were talking wells greater than > 500 feet. Traditionally deep water is defined as wells in 1,000 feet or more of water. So the moratorium also covers part of the Shelf, bad moratorium in my book.

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    Popeye – HK still trying to hold $20

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    and failing. Market diving now.

  92. 92
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    hmmmm…. don’t quite get the aggressive sell off. On the other hand, don’t think many actual Humans are trading this market. Most, like HT, have their eyes closed and are emitting gentle snoring sounds.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    BOP – mmph, whatzat? uahflisdh. zzzzz.

  94. 94
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #93 — ha! that is EXACTLY what HT said when I woke him up to ask what’s going on. He doesn’t see any “news” behind the sell off. Then he just nodded back off. The gentle snoring continues.

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    re 94. Could be fear of the 800 pound gorilla. That appeal came within 3 minutes of the news hitting the wire. Maybe that is being taken as a harsher stance towards traditional energy from this Administration.

  96. 96
    Jerome Blank Says:

    HK 5 min added, $19.50 is major support…first resistance now at previous support at $20

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  97. 97
    AAA Says:

    I haven’t seen an actual copy of the Judge’s ruling on the moratorium, so I find some aspects of the case confusing. It’s not clear to me what gave MMS the authority to impose the moratorium in the first place. Apparently, the challenge was simply based on it being “arbitrary and capricious”, which is kind of a catchall legal objection. The implication of that however is that the plaintiffs didn’t challenge the government’s actual legal authority to issue the moratorium. They simply said it was issued without adequate justfication.

    The judge’s order is a temporary restraining order or TRO, which is intended to freeze the situation pending a full scale argument on the issues. Thus, it is possible, although unlikely I would think, that he could refuse to grant permanent relief.

    The appeal process is also a bit complex. An appellate court would normally be reluctant to overturn the grant of a TRO, because issuing it is largely within the judge’s discretion. That said, courts are normally reluctant to rule that the government violated the arbitrary and capricious standard, since the government has a very low burden to establish that its actions were not arbitrary and capricious. Frankly, I think the Court of Appeals will overturn that finding if they get to the merits of it.

    Again, it is not a matter of right versus wrong, but whether or not they had any rational basis for issuing the moratorium. Given the obvious inadequacy of BP’s containment plan, it does not seem like a huge step for the government to want time to take a second look at other wells’ containment plans and engineering issues.

  98. 98
    1520sbroad Says:

    #94/95 – i think the 800lb gorilla is clearly in play. No telling what it will do when challenged…

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    Thanks AAA.

    Re 98 and it’s that uncertainty that makes for days like today.

  100. 100
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #98 — agreed.

    And scary.

  101. 101
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    No one likes it when their own govt “misleads” the people. I thought that letter from the outside experts would get more air-play than it did… interesting that the judge appears to have used it in his ruling.

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jun/22/judge-halts-obamas-oil-drilling-ban/

  102. 102
    zman Says:

    Wild swing on DO, was up $2, now down $2.

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    So if the unintended consequence of the yuan de-peg is that the yuan falls instead of climbs relative to the dollar does that mean good things for Walmart and Target as they sell a ton of plastic junk from there which would be falling even more in price, enticing shoppers? Just looking for a silver lining.

  104. 104
    zman Says:

    Nicky sent an email telling me that we are falling into her target area from this morning.

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    JB – Can I pick your brain for your favorite three charts in our little group at the moment?

  106. 106
    elduque Says:

    We sure aren’t “rising” into her target area

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    Eld – 3 day 10% correction from the top in gas. Rather be buying than selling on days like this.

  108. 108
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #105, Zman …let me try to look at it tonight…

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    Got an email from source at TPH. They are saying “not a chance” re a 1 year moratorium on Marcellus activity. I’m near Fayetteville Shale territory and I can tell you there is little chance the govt. here is going to give up the tax revenues and jobs associated with drilling the shale up.

  110. 110
    zman Says:

    JB – thanks much.

  111. 111
    elduque Says:

    thanks JB and everyone else who contributes. This is truly a wonderful site.

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    Glad to see this day off the books. Beerthirty. Go USA tomorrow v. Algeria.

  113. 113
    Jerome Blank Says:

    I can’t really say I’m overly crazy about any bullish structure at the moment, but starting to look at some of the charts, WLL reversed off a major double top at about $93, going on a new P&F sell signal with the print thru $88 today, but the chart looks good compared to the group as a whole, could be a prime bear trap candidate if it holds $87…similar positive structure for XEC, but it’s going to be tough to hold onto $73 unless it opens higher tomorrow morning, ROSE also still looks good compared to the group, holdng the buy signal in X’s until a print thru $23, key resistance for ROSE at $26, I know it’s not popular, but UNG was the relative strength leader holding nicely with a closing hammer at the $8 support level, sooner or later it’s going to test the 200 day…more a bit later

  114. 114
    zman Says:

    Thanks JB. Been watching the XEC more of late. Doing ROSE in the WIOWIO tomorrow. Nothing really near term interesting there but I own it for the long term and think it has significant upside potential if either they or NFX proves that the Southern Alberta Bakken works in nw Montana.

  115. 115
    zman Says:

    API numbers out, not pretty. Looks like a big build in crude stocks due to a big ramp in imports, partially offset by higher refinery runs. I was looking for imports to fall back and for refinery runs to increase.

  116. 116
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BedTime Market Strategist

    Sloppy Tape, Sloppy Technicals.

    It started out as yet another fairly mild, slow trading session. Once again, late day weakness emerged and there was not much volume. Investor disinterest has taken hold and is fueling big moves but little action. The fact that the S&P 500 Equal Weight and the Russell 2000 have underperformed the S&P 500 by 90 basis points and 165 basis points, respectively, over the past 5 trading sessions indicates that P&L damage is likely more significant than the performance of major indices shows. The headlines were mixed and generally exerted little influence on the market. The Housing Data was weak, but the market did not start to sell off until 4 hours later. Energy names sold off to new lows after a Federal Judge lifted the White House’s moratorium. Even the Euro was relatively well behaved, but today it proved no benefit to U.S. Equities. Lacking both liquidity and news, investors find themselves buckling in for a very bumpy ride with no stops to get off. The bottom line on both the buy and sell side is that there is no liquidity to access, so investors are better served by picking their levels and remaining disciplined.

    The slow, sloppy and indecisive nature of this tape keeps the technical patterns in the forefront. The S&P 500 again broke below its 200 day moving average amidst the weakness and quickly broke below its 1100 support level. The most disconcerting aspect of all of today’s technical action is the setup being created for a “potential” Head & Shoulders top (see Chart). The pattern being formed is far from textbook. It lacks symmetry, or balance in the distance from the left shoulder to the head and from the head to the right shoulder. For an ideal symmetry, the right shoulder would occur in late July/early August. Instead, the pattern currently has a truncated right shoulder in both distance and height. Although the pattern lacks textbook qualities, it is important to recognize that a Head & Shoulders top is potentially forming. The Neckline is the 1050 level, it would need to be broken to complete the pattern. A traditional 6-12 month price target measurement if the neckline is broken would be 883. That is derived by subtracting the distance between the neckline and the head from the neckline itself. Since the pattern is not close to completing yet, we would not be betting on such a decline, but it is import to be cognizant and alert that the potential is out there.

  117. 117
    zman Says:

    The Wednesday post will be out around 9 am EST.

Leave a Reply

Zman's Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… is is proudly powered by Wordpress
Navigation Theme by GPS Gazette

s2Member®