Wrap – Week Ended 6/4/10

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Comments TBA Sunday noon.


7 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 6/4/10”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    BP now catching 10,000 bopd


  2. 2
    Jerome Blank Says:

    From Friday’s posts…thank you much for the kind comments and votes, #47, john, #49 West, #53 Pati…I appreciate it… a few technical comments…broadly speaking most of the charts currently look terrible, we have a few new P&F buy signals, but most printed on closing shooting stars, in other words, the stocks printed an additonal X, so the chart continues for the day in X’s, but barring a major gap higher monday, almost all are going to open as reversals in O’s…there were a few standout interesting charts, HK printed a new buy signal and broke its P&F bearish trendline, this stock actually looks good, major resistance at $22, UNG traded just a few cents shy of the X reversal at $8.50 closing right on 100 day SMA support, definitely worth watching now…

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Thanks much JB

  4. 4
    choices Says:

    Asian mkts off 2-3.5% (except HSI, SSEC Not yet reporting) Globex S & P trading @1055, off ~11+ points

    Probably no surprise-will see Euro mkts Mon AM w/Euro down, looks to be a weak opening Mon AM for US mkts.

    Maybe BP can cheer things up.

    Thanks, JB, voted as usual.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Choices – yeah, the Presidential headfake continues. DJIA fut down 114, SP fut down 13. Oil off 1.50, just under $70.

  6. 6
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BedTime Market Strategist

    “Government Jobs” Report, Literally.

    Friday’s monthly employment satiation report was literally a “Government jobs” report, as 90% of the 431,000 jobs created were government positions. As we noted Friday morning, 41,000 private sector jobs do not cut it. If expectations had not been so badly mismanaged, it would not have been such a disaster since there was not a downward revision of April’s much better than expected 290,000 jobs added. The problem for the markets was that everyone in the Administration from the President on down talked up the report for the past week. This was the worst case of over-promising and under-delivering since the President was first elected and talked up Geithner’s Financial rescue plan before it was released. The cornerstone of that plan was the stress test. Just over a year later, we know the effort was successful but was poorly received initially and helped fuel the selling leading to the March 2009 low. Friday’s ugly sell-off was the type of reaction one should expect from such an expectations’ mismatch. In the past couple of months, the prospect of a “V” recovery has come to the table and Central Bankers indicated the double dip was not likely. We have generally believed that if a double dip does happen, it will likely be next year. This May number still has notable revisions coming and considering April’s strength, one report alone is not enough to shift views, but this undoubtedly puts investors on high alert for that double dip potential.

    The market has been ignoring the weekly Initial Jobless Claims reports (or has been pre-occupied with Europe). A clear divergence between the weekly and monthly reports has emerged over the past couple of months. The May Jobs report indicates the weekly numbers remain just as important as ever. For this recovery to remain on track, the claims need to resume a trajectory towards the sub-400,000 level. Being on high alert means this weekly focus is key. The recovery low print for this series is 439,000, which was in the second week of February. The latest reading is 453,000. These should make for good benchmarks to compare as the economy attempts to trudge to that 400,000 claims demarcation level.

    Hungarian Goulash.

    Friday further confirmed that the political tactic of saying whatever is necessary to advance one’s own political agenda is not simply an American or German strategy. Comments from Hungary’s New Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s spokesman, Peter Szijjarto, further unnerved global financial markets. Szijjarto commented that “It’s clear that the economy is in a very grave situation,” and “I don’t think it’s an exaggeration at all to talk about a default.” The irony is that Hungary is already in the midst of an IMF-EU-World Bank bailout launched in 2008. Orban has been pushing to alleviate the IMF imposed measures to allow the budget deficit to rise to 5%-6% of GDP from the current level of 4% of GDP. Only a couple of weeks ago, the IMF congratulated the outgoing Government for their accomplishments in adopting the IMF program and reducing the budget deficit. Szijjarto’s irresponsible use of the “D” word is likely to have undermined the new Government and should have serious blowback consequences for Orban, who is seeking to reduce austerity and stimulate growth. Now the IMF-EU-World Bank will likely press the screws a little tighter. Threatening lenders of last resort with default and unsettling global markets is unlikely to convince the lenders to loosen lending standards.

    The Greek parallels to Hungary are scary for investors, i.e. a new government accuses the old government of cooking the books. One difference here is that the IMF has been involved in Hungary’s finances for nearly 20 months. If the IMF’s reputation as a tough creditor holds true, than this is likely politicians playing politics. Either way, Hungary has gotten it’s bailout and another one is not coming. Good luck to the new government that is choosing to play chicken with the Financial Markets.

  7. 7
    john11 Says:

    Bop, wanted to be sure to say thanks again for your consistent postings of credit and market strategist.
    Invaluable stuff, really appreciate you sharing it!

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