20
Apr

Tuesday Morning – Updated Catalyst List

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Market Sentiment Watch: Goldman crushed numbers this morning helping to set a  slightly positive for early trading but the focus their won't be on numbers or the kind of charges you normally think of during earnings season but instead on SEC charges so the call will be key and will likely hold some sway over today's trading action. We traded puts on MMR yesterday following what seemed to be a dead money call on the name and I may revisit that concept on a bounce in coming weeks. HAL opened oil service earnings season strongly yesterday and I expect follow through on the shares in coming days. I've updated the Catalyst List and will probably do so a little more frequently as we travel through earnings season. Today and tomorrow are absent economic data releases and all eyes are focused on home sales data towards week's end along with a continued flood of earnings.  


In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Catalyst List Update
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – Wrap thoughts on yesterday's earnings (HAL and MMR)
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

  • ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

    • $10,100
    • 53% Cash
    • Yesterday’s Trades:

      • None

 

  • ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)
    • $18,600
    • 78% Cash
    • Yesterday’s Trades:
      • HAL – Added (10) HAL May $32 Calls with the stock at $31.50 for $1.05. Likely to add a second set on market related weakness today. Call going well, see notes in post and in comments today.
      • HAL - Added a second set of (10) May $32 calls for $0.93 with the stock at $31.45, off slightly in a down market.
      • HAL – Added (20) HAL May $33 Calls with the stock at $31.60 for $0.67.
      • HAL – Added another set of (20) HAL May $33 Calls with the stock at $31.65 for $0.65.
      • MMR - Added (25) PUTS, May $12.50 PUTS for $0.40 (on the mid) with the stock at $14.10, down about 8% today following earnings. See site for more details on the quarter. Listening to the call now and thinking analysts will come away with a lack of near term catalysts for the name. Couple that with slightly lower production guidance I can see analysts taking numbers lower and calling the stock “dead money”. Taking a look at the daily chart it looks vulnerable to me. I still like the name and concept longer term but I think it may take a bigger hit here.
      • MMR - Sold the 25 puts taken earlier for $0.60, up 46% to my cost, with the stock down 13%. If it bounces I'm like to reload this position.


Commodity Watch

Crude oil fell $1.79 to close at $81.45 yesterday, on a weak equity market and a strong dollar, both inspired by uncertainty surrounding Goldman and the whole SEC deal. June takes over as the front month contract tomorrow.  This morning crude is trading up $0.75 on an ever so slightly weaker dollar.

  • Early Read On Oil Inventories:
    • Crude:  DOWN 320,000 barrels
    • Gasoline: UP 300,000 barrels
    • Distillates: UP 875,000 barrels
  • SLB & Iraq Watch: Fear in the market that SLB and others moving forward with development plans could trip up oil. I'd add that it's probably a bit early to worry about a big ramp due to Western capital at this juncture.

Natural gas fell with oil ending off  a dime to close at $3.94 yesterday. This morning gas is trading off a couple of pennies.

  • Imports Watch: Imports remain tame. Up 0.2 Bcfgpd from last year.

    • Canada: 7.0 Bcfgpd, up 0.45 Bcfgpd from year ago levels.
    • LNG: 1.15 Bcfgpd, down 0.23 Bcfgpd from year ago levels. 

 

Catalyst List Update

This updated list has been placed on the Catalyst tab as well. As usual, the yellow highlights are new additional data to the list.

 

Stuff We Care About Today

Yesterday's Earnings Wrap - MMR & HAL

MMR - In short, dead money

  • Very little new for the name out of 1Q release of conference call other than lower production and perhaps a longer time for flow testing of their ultra deep prospect at Davy Jones.
  • We did get confirmation of them running a liner without incident all the way to the bottom of the hole at Davy.
  • But there was no good news at Blueberry Hill where another sidetrack operation will be necessary
  • I did a quick trade as listed above and may take puts again on the name if it gets a pop as I think this will be a longer term waiting game than some with recent profits will care to play.

HAL - Improving Outlook

  • North American margins improved throughout the quarter and will be modestly higher than expected for the second quarter. Even with a retrenchment in the natural gas rig count, activity on the oil side is expected to maintain margins in the second half.
  • International margins were disappointing in the first quarter but are expected to improve throughout 2010 and into 2011.
  • The stock closed essentially unchanged yesterday.
  • HAL trades at 15.1x 2011 current estimates of $2.10 vs SLB's 17x 2011 multiple.
  • 2Q Street estimates at a minimum should be moving higher.

WFT Reports Lower Than Expected 1Q10 Results

The 1Q10 Numbers:

  • Revenues of $2.338 B vs $2.542 B expected
  • EPS of $0.06 (ex items) vs $0.09 expected

Highlights:

  • NAM showed sequential growth in almost product lines
  • Latin America was weak (like at HAL)
  • No guidance = typical

 

Nutshell: Conference call worth a listen for color on international markets.

Conference Call:  today, 9 am Est

Other Stuff:

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • HK upped to Outperform at FBR, target upped from $25 to $30
  • BRY upped to Buy at Keybanc
  • HAL - FBR reiterates Outperform, ups estimates, takes target up $2 to $44.
  • ACI - target upped $6 to $34 at Jefferies
  • MMR - Wunderlich cuts target $2 to $16, maintains Buy
  • MMR - Dahlman cuts target $3 to $17, maintains Buy

 

135 Responses to “Tuesday Morning – Updated Catalyst List”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    HAL – Morgan Stanley reiterating Overweight rating and $60 target.

    MMR – JPM cuts target from $19 to $17.

  2. 2
    bill Says:

    tph recomending pxp today

    swap into PXP ($32.27 – B)
    Can look at next 3-4 years for ~70% production growth (secured by hedging) taking 2014E cash flow to ~$12/share (before Lucius)

  3. 3
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    From JPMo Sector Summary on Energy

    Energy
    Morgan Stanley ups energy, cuts material sector – Morgan Stanley upgraded the energy sector to OW based on sector-specific and macro factors that were more supportive for energy than materials, which it cut to neutral. Within oil and gas, MS likes the super majors in Europe (Total and BP). Reuters
    Transocean starts trading on SIX Swiss Exchange – Transocean, the world’s largest offshore oil and gas driller started trading on the SIX Swiss Exchange Tuesday. The stock will be included in the benchmark Swiss Market Index and the 30-company Swiss Leader Index. Bloomberg
    Gloucester Coal to review Noble shareholder vote – Gloucestor Coal is reviewing its position following a rejection from its shareholders at Noble Group regarding the merger with Macarthur Coal and Gloucestor. Reuters http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSGE63I0N820100419?type=marketsNews
    Australia Macarthur: no proposal from Xstrata – Xstrata looks to be staying on the sidelines for Macarthur Coal, despite talk that the company would enter with a competing bid. That leaves Peabody as the top bidder. Reuters http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSGE63J00O20100420
    APA upgraded to outperform from N at Macquarie.
    HK upgraded to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
    WFT reports 1Q earnings – WFT reported earnings of 8c ex-charges (st 9c) on revenues of $2.34B (st. $2.544B) for 1Q. No guidance for FY10 was given and the company will hold a CC to discuss at 9AM ET. Bloomberg

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    WFT – not sure what people are liking in the WFT miss, maybe margins on the international side. Conf call at the top of the hour.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    I’d note the Majors look to be taking a turn higher here, last couple of days. It could be that investors dipping a toe back in the water will go with what they perceive as a safer play with the Majors, especially the domestics, XOM/CVX/COP instead of the indie refiners which continue to have trouble holding up despite the improvement in spreads.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    … and XOM has been slowest to move, perhaps because of the XTO buy. Sort of interest to look at the moves at CVX / COP (gassier domestically pre XTO buy at XOM) and think that maybe it is time, given oil and product prices that the market starts to give XOM a little better multiple.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    RIG getting a good mark up on its Swiss exchange listing and likely future inclusion in the Swiss version of the S&P500.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Tidbit from a broker note on HAL that I missed on the call yesterday, proppant prices are creeping back up. Good for CRR.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Bill – I think I saw PXP upping their hedge positions yesterday, have not looked at the size of the increase or the levels yet.

    WFT call started.

  10. 10
    kaman Says:

    Z- I would surmise its not a crowded field…but is CRR what you’d call “best of breed”? thanks,K

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    HAL – Stephens taking EPS up 5% this year and 10% next year (to $2.20/sh). Target stays at $40.

    Kaman – I think best of breed is a good title for CRR. Will ask Wyoming for the dark horse name.

  12. 12
    jat Says:

    Whisper on WFT was well below the street, plus they actually released a balance sheet. Not great quarter but not a total disaster.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    WFT Call Notes

    North America “made the quarter”

    International was hurt by weather

    NAM margins are far from their peak, room to grow.

    International was weak due to weather (Russia and China saw extreme cold), seasonality (Q1 is normally weak).

    Seeing improvement in managed pressure drilling, stimulation has been strong, artificial lift doing well.

    NAM – 2H10, activity expected to flatten out through 2011. Stimulation will stabilize but not much more improvement expected. Expect pricing trends to improve despite the flattening activity.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Thanks Jat. Right, they miss often now so a smaller miss is a beat in the eyes of the Street.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Wizard – please check your email.

  16. 16
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TechTrader is a helpful 50/50 for today.

    HeadTrader would continue to buy pullbacks, using the financial sector as your Sherpa… and paying particular attention to the price action of The Mothership (GS).

  17. 17
    elijahwc Says:

    ATPG – rapidly going from doghouse to penthouse.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    GS headlines crossing, no intention of changing charter, no other talks with the justice dept re other charges, were not told in advance by SEC of charges, … stock moving off the post EPS release lows.

  19. 19
    bill Says:

    bot wll before next weeks earnings

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    re 19 – added that deep in the money call for earnings, continuing to hold the name in the ZLT.

  21. 21
    bill Says:

    can it be.. sd up for once

    atpg did a debt deal so there is no risk of them running out of casj

    pxp did buy puts on some of their production

  22. 22
    ram Says:

    BOP – Did you know of the reason behind the CIGX stock offering?

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    WFT Call Q&A – positive tone, much of international issues behind them. All of the weather, some of the political instability (Algeria), Golden Goose to come from Iraq in time … anyway, good call so far.

  24. 24
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — CIGX is not a stock offering. It merely registers the private placement shares issued last March (buyers included the CEO, Tradewinds [largest shareholder], and Roskamp [of the Roskamp Institute]). Registering the shares makes them easier to sell at some point in the future. So, it shouldn’t be either 1) new news, or 2) bad news. But there ya go.

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    GS red now, not yet killing the market.

  26. 26
    ram Says:

    Thanks for the info.

  27. 27
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — no problem!

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    WFT – “whatever growth capital we have to spend will be less than the growth we have in 2010 and 2011”

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    WFT –

    NAM – could see some price based increases in the second half.

    Int’l – all volume based growth, not pricing related.

    Still a good call going on here.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch: HAL

    GS raised their target $1 to $43, took estimates for 2010 to 2012 up 4 to 6%. 2011 is well above the Street at $2.45. (Street is at $2.10).

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – HAL

    Sold both sets of calls with the stock at $32.40.

    HAL – Sold the 20 $32 May Calls for $1.34 up 33%

    HAL – Sold the 40 $33 May Calls for $0.85, up 26%.

    The ZIM is back to 100% cash.

  32. 32
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HeadTrader reiterating his call to “follow the Mothership!”

  33. 33
    bondbuddha Says:

    Nice trade on the HAL Z, tks

    JB voted

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    ZCAT may adopt a more ZIMish tone (wait, then strike) through earnings season.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    BB – anytime! Again, I left the name a little early it appears but I’m liking the hit and run strategy of the ZIM too much to worry about that. Next candidates are NBR and ECA tomorrow (not going to trade before I see their numbers).

    EOG mounting a nice resurgence, earnings May 4 should provide a little more detail as per catalyst list.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    SSN down 13% on profit taking. Not ready to turn loose of my ZLT shares. I would imagine that the stock will start moving again in a couple of weeks just before they announce the next Bakken well has been spud.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    VQ – was there a more specific catalyst I was supposed to add to the table aside from the May analyst meeting.

  38. 38
    1520sbroad Says:

    Z – HK question – those black hawk/red hawk wells – do you remember if they said anything about them at IPAA? I ahve been trying to get their presentation to open from there but i can’t get it to go at the moment. I remember a slide with the map of the play but can’t recall the details

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    1520 – yes, they did. First mentioned the first Black Hawk well at Howard Weil, then added an additional well there at IPAA. Both near 1,000 barrels condensate per day plus some associated gas. Three rigs running at Black Hawk now. Over at Red Hawk they have 1 rig running and are a little less enthusiastic about Zavalla county at the moment. Acreage at both is large.

  40. 40
    VTZ Says:

    Gold has moved nicely off of major support between 1120-1130 and felt resistance at 1145. A break above 1145 before some more consolidation would be extremely strong and the perfect setup.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Yield names continue to rally, WHX approaching $21.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Nicky – got levels?

  43. 43
    1520sbroad Says:

    39 – thanks – that strikes HK from the catalyst list for the time being?

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    1520 – I took them off because their asset sales were done and those wells hit. They will have several more wells to talk about on the call but nothing I’d call catalytic … maybe more catalytic since the stock is below the announcement levels now in a really confounding way. Things haven’t looked this bright, with capital discipline large and in charge (recall they cut capex and shifted to more liquids what they kept), growing > 30% and yet still the market no likey. Not the Street, mind you, as the Street has been upping their opinion on them. I think if they turn in a string of what would have been good IP Bakken wells 12 months ago at Blackhawk this stock snaps into the upper $20s at least but that’s probably in the second half of this year.

  45. 45
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Have you come across anything re IO – ION Geophysical in your travels? Good bad or indifferent. Thanks.

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    Tom – nope.

  47. 47
    1520sbroad Says:

    #44 – I couldn’t agree more. Having followed them for a while I can’t remember a time when they looked as good to me from a grow thru the drillbit with good cash flow (albeit from some big asset sales but that is a heck of a lot better than watering everybody down — again) perspective. I go back to the weighing maching vs. voting machine idea…

  48. 48
    dij Says:

    Several questions. BEXP up on no news? WLL and EOG following the oil bounce.
    Follow the mothership. GS seems to be doing abysmally given the stellar earnings report. BOP, any comments on that? SPY is doing way better than GS. I had had the impression that the financial downside to the suit was quite limited. Thanks.

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    ZTRADES – ZCAT – BEXP

    Sold the May $15 BEXP Calls for $3.20, down 7% and uprisked into the

    May $20 BEXP Calls for $0.45, added (30) bringing my total to (40). Expecting more well news here this week or next.

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    Dij – BEXP see 49 and the catalyst list, the time is drawing near for more updates there. I’m confident they will have news soon as its a good idea post deal to get more out the door on the same kind of time frame as they had been before the door.

    WLL and EOG – people liking higher oil but also getting ready for earnings. EOG has a number of wells they could talk about including Caret that could be very important for the name. Part of the reason I took the higher strike BEXP calls is that if EOG says good things about that east Montana Bakken well it is very good for BEXP’s Ghost Rider acreage. BEXP has a well set to drill not far from there. If Ghost Rider proves good for Bakken/ Three Forks then BEXP will have 3 areas to run in (Ross, Rough Rider, and Ghost Rider) and that’s a big deal.

  51. 51
    dij Says:

    Thanks, Z. Unlike some I did read the catalysts. I guess it is just moving on in the week.
    EOG earnings are 5.4, WLL 4.28. We await a good time to sell the EOG position, certainly doing well today.
    It is eating away at the July ’08 descent.

  52. 52
    Gmlgdc Says:

    EXO has a real problem south of Shreveport got a gas kick and put gas in the Wilcox aquifer. Tested water wells and gas is turning up. They were drilling at 2100 feet on a second well on a super pad

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    dij – I have not doubt that everyone here reads everywhere word and sentence fragment I babble on about. I think you have some post deal digestion going on with BEXP, was off big yesterday early, then bounced late and then today a run for no reason. My sense is well news is around the corner and maybe one or two guys are touting the name in front of EOG’s comments.

    EOG has news out today but it is from a source I don’t get.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    What is EXO ? Is that XCO?

  55. 55
    Gmlgdc Says:

    Sorry XCO

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    That’s pretty shallow, guessing on the way down to the Hayensville (say another 9000 feet). Guessing they case it off and pay a fine and get sued some.

  57. 57
    Gmlgdc Says:

    I had that problem few years ago you have to remediate the reservoir. That is the main water well source for this area.

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    OK, bigger deal than I was thinking. Um, got a link to a story on that?

  59. 59
    reefguy Says:

    43- HK has Fayetteville on the block

  60. 60
    PackMan Says:

    Good morning:

    Why is EXXI so weak today ?

    Z: Where on the site can I find the latest and greatest write up on EXXI.?

    Thx

  61. 61
    Dman Says:

    #60 Don’t know but I just bought some

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Reef – thanks, will put it back up there. Would be a boon for them if they could get of that position, not a lot of upside for them, better to have SWN or CHK on it than them.

    Packman – EXXI getting a little follow through on MMR from yesterday, don’t see any comments but maybe someone cut expectations there. Latest and greatest is in the daily flow, don’t think I’ve written anything on them in a post since the last quarterly conference call. I didn’t get a whole lot out of their IPAA presentation last week.

  63. 63
    Dman Says:

    #61 Part of my new “act before understanding” strategy. We’ll see how that pans out 🙂

  64. 64
    jiveyjr Says:

    XLE challenging 2010 high…yeah baby

  65. 65
    Dman Says:

    Z – with huge price targets on HAL, are you thinking of a possible ZLT? Looks to be in a rising channel having broken thru resistance at $32.83 from 17 March. Top of channel now around #33.75 (i.e. market almost got there already).

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    re 65. Have been mulling that, yes.

  67. 67
    Gmlgdc Says:

    http://www.shreveporttimes.com will get you some of the story

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    re 67, thanks, short interest is very low, as they have been on an asset selling spree, stock not seeming to care about the news. Market has been taking issues at PVA in stride although this looks like more of a problem than a simple frac fluid spill.

  69. 69
    Gmlgdc Says:

    re68 my only fear is the gas in the water arguement even though it has nothing to do with frac

  70. 70
    Dman Says:

    Market seems to like NOV as a follow-on play from HAL. Earnings before bell Tuesday April 27.

    A bit difficult with it up 4%, but just putting it on the radar.

  71. 71
    VTZ Says:

    Excerpt from Reuters Wire

    “Bank of Canada sets stage for rate hike, a G7 first
    1 hour ago – Reuters
    Bank of Canada sets stage for rate hike, a G7 first
    By Louise Egan

    OTTAWA (Reuters) – The Bank of Canada signaled on Thursday it may raise interest rates as soon as June, making it the first G7 central bank willing to unwind emergency stimulus measures as the economy roars back after the recession.

    The bank kept its benchmark rate at 0.25 percent, the record low level it has been at for the past year. But after surprisingly high inflation and growth numbers, it abandoned a conditional pledge to hold the rate at that level until the end of June.

    “With recent improvements in the economic outlook, the need for such extraordinary policy is now passing, and it is appropriate to begin to lessen the degree of monetary stimulus,” it said in a statement.

    “The extent and timing will depend on the outlook for economic activity and inflation, and will be consistent with achieving the 2 percent inflation target.”

    The central bank next sets interest rates on June 1, and then on July 20. It previously said it would hold rates steady until the end of the second quarter, unless inflation strayed off course. But all bets are now off.

    “This is a more hawkish than expected statement,” said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

    “Quite simply, June is definitely on the table as a possibility for the bank to begin hiking rates.””

  72. 72
    Dman Says:

    Z – how does the shift from NG to oil focus in E&P affect NBR?

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    Dman – rigs turning either way, maybe a bit long on the job on the oil wells, everybody thinking you’ll see a small decline to flat level of gas rigs from here on this year, more than offset by a continued rise in gas. NBR is tomorrow, stock running hard in advance. SLB on Friday also worth watching.

    WFT – treading water post call, I think I’m going to pass there.

    CRR continues to run on the HAL comments and along with a strong market today. I don’t see playing with options, big fat spreads are unattractive.

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    MMR can’t get out of its own way despite all the reiterated Buys today (and lowered targets).

  75. 75
    VTZ Says:

    Selling pressure in ATH looks like it’s coming back after a rally from a low of nearly 13 to 15.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    V – meanwhile SU announces new gas production and is really moving off that bottom.

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    MCF jumping up here, full fledged breakout, approaching $60.

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    That EOG article I didn’t have was a WSJ Heard (Herd) on the Street column.

  79. 79
    dij Says:

    Whatever the WSJ piece said, EOG really, really, wants to break out.

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    Re 79, it was a piece on NGL’s, only tangentially related to EOG.

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    Test

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    Couple of comments seem to have been lost as my host changed our server out.

    VTZ – RE: 75 – Not only gas: gas from Syria… Whatever though. I’ll take it!

    Nicky – Good afternoon to all. 1207 spx is the 78.6% retrace off the 1183 low, really the maximum allowed for a wave ii retracement and if this is going to resolve to the downside.

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Thanks Nicky, so you’re calling a top at 1207 OR we are done with the dip?

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    Can someone comment so I know if they broke the site or not? Thanks.

  85. 85
    elijahwc Says:

    SSN giving up very little after the great run. Portends great things once the next few wells are punched.

  86. 86
    Popeye Says:

    Hellooooo

  87. 87
    skimo Says:

    Well, BOP, I either caught a falling knife or not, CIGX at 1.82.
    Using profits from RIG calls (big thanks to Z)
    Always more fun to play with somebody else’s money- (hmm- maybe I should run for congress) 🙂

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    Thanks guys, was having a comment post issue, seems to have resolved itself. My host apparently bought some new friggin string to connect me to the internet. Sheesh.

    Eli – agreed. Again, not falling in love but that was a big kahuna well for such a little company.

    Skimo – you’re way too smart to go for that job. As one of my favorite quotes goes … “all I’d need is a lobotomy and a pair of tights”

  89. 89
    skimo Says:

    88 ok I won’t run- y’all really do NOT want to see me in tights! LOL

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    Seeing some big chunks of HAL crossing. Stock coming off highs. Personally I like to see them run on days like this and put in a little top that I know the shares can then take out in the near term again. Maybe on SLB’s earnings on Friday.

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    re 89 = LOL. I promise not to as well.

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    If you experience problems with the site later today I am told you should clear your browser’s cache.

  93. 93
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #33 bondbuddha…thanks much for the vote…

    EXXI holding at about the long term lower daily channel trendline as I write this…this also correspodes with the 20/50 SMA…

    BHI prints a new P&F buy signal at $51…

    DPTR continues to form an interesting consolidation triangle right at 200 SMA resistance…check out the daily chart….

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    I’ve activated the Backup site today as many people can’t get in here.

    http://zmanbackup.wordpress.com/2010/04/20/tuesday-backup-post/

  95. 95
    PackMan Says:

    No prob w/ the site on this computer …

  96. 96
    PackMan Says:

    Dman … 61 … I like that strategy !

    I bought some EXXI today as well. Everything that I had was called away at $20 due to covered call sales; so oppty to reload a bit.

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    Thanks Pack, it works for some and not for others. Friggin nice. What a bunch of numb nuts.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the updates, JB.

    WHX through $21.

  99. 99
    Jerome Blank Says:

    EXXI…a close back above $19.50 seems to keep intact the longer term channel support, otherwise the shorter term support at $18 is the next line in the sand… charts updated..

  100. 100
    zman Says:

    Thanks JB, really not understanding the slugging EXXI is taking.

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    EOG breakout continues, new 52 week high. CFPS for 2010 of $13.65, 2011 at $19.80 means the name is still not expensive.

  102. 102
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: EXXI had filed a shelf offering a while back. Weakness today are rumors of a secondary equity shortly.

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    Tom – Hmmmm, thanks.

  104. 104
    occam Says:

    ARD moving. Will someone else bid for the company now that it is in play?

  105. 105
    reefguy Says:

    me thinks ARD has another bid/higher price by SD to close

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    Occam – ARD could be moving because SD is moving. I would not be surprised at all to see a competing big though, I just bet it won’t be a lot higher or you get into pricey reserve territory for ARD.

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    Crude – the front month closed up $2 on its final day but the rest of the strip was less zealous, up only about 70 cents at the close. June takes over tomorrow as the front month contract and is trading at 83.89.

  108. 108
    dij Says:

    restarting helped me. Where is BOP? Knocked out?

  109. 109
    Dman Says:

    Z – I can see the site now using my backup ISP.

    Does EXXI need a secondary?

  110. 110
    rseidman Says:

    I’m back on main site, thanks

  111. 111
    zman Says:

    BOP is out running errands.

    EXXI – I don’t think so yet.

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    RS – great, glad to hear that, lemme know over there if you get kicked off over here again.

  113. 113
    Patipati Says:

    Haven’t lost you but maybe I have. Very slow!

  114. 114
    jat Says:

    VTZ, how’re you thinking about valuation and target ranges on ATH? I’ve spent a lot more time on Canadians with actual proved/probable, haven’t done a lot on these near 100% contingent resource plays… Also, do you have any idea when the next resource update is coming?

  115. 115
    zman Says:

    beerthirty.

  116. 116
    VTZ Says:

    Well, keep in mind it’s only classified as proved/probable because they haven’t drilled a well yet and aren’t producing. I would call it reserves (in the Dover, MacKay and Hangingstone areas). There is no uncertainty whatsoever here. Maybe you could argue about recovery factors although you can find similar projects (ie Suncor/PetroCan Mackay and other Hanginstone and Dover projects).

    The only truly unproven reserves in my books are the carbonates.

    As a Baseline, the Dover and MacKay properties could be put to PetroChina if they don’t work out for ~2 billion $ then they would be able to develop the remainder of their properties. Keep in mind that their balance sheet is already in very good condition.

    Ultimately there is no rush to buy it though, as I don’t believe their development timelines. That being said, these are quality assets!!!

    Market cap today is $5.8B CADs. Add in the cash and put options and then you have an enterprise value of much lower.

    I’m going to sort through their financials that they issued yesterday.

  117. 117
    elijahwc Says:

    MHR on Z’s Catalyst List. Just like sending your child off to college!

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    Massive beat at AAPL

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    8.75 mm iphones vs 7.5 mm target

  120. 120
    zman Says:

    Eli – See … I listen.

  121. 121
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    hey!! so sorry to drop the ball today. Had some stuff that kept me away much longer than planned.

    WTF with EXXI? Rumor of a 2ndary would explain the drop. But unless they are planning on buying something, I don’t see where they need it. I mean, it sucks to be a tiple-C credit… but if you have hedges and free cash flow, it’s liveable. I would LOVE it if they did another acqtn like the Mitsui deal… which was accretive from the git-go. But, can’t think of why else.

    Will have to nose around.

    GS closed down for the day. So much for HeadTrader’s touch-stone. I don’t think anybody in the credit world thinks the GS charges hold water… but, equities were looking for reasons to sell off, after they got tired of kicking Greece around. So, the SEC charges were as good an excuse as any.

    Meanwhile, earnings continue to roll in and not stink. Bond spreads are verging on the point of not being all that compelling any more… making equities the best asset class in town right now… even if some people are thinking we will have a 10 or 20% or more correction. Ha. I am not in that group. There’s always the chance of a meteorite hitting Wall Street, or something, of course.

  122. 122
    zman Says:

    Forecaster WSI ups hurricane season forecast

  123. 123
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI CEO Schiller has stated on several occassions that he sees some tasty GoM properties out there and sees EXXI as a “consolidator” on the shelf. Maybe he found a shiny bauble that is just too compelling. Thing is, he does know how to drive a good bargin (ref: Mistui acqtn). However, his currency has appreciated… and I hope he doesn’t go all Loosey Goosey on us, buying up stuff Just To Get Bigger.

    The BOP Spy Network is out there, trying to get to the bottom of this. Chances are, could be true… but better be coupled with a HECK of a nice asset acqtn at the same time. (Last time they did a 2ndary, the stock digested it for about 2 weeks — due to the asinine issuance of a convertible preferred at the same time — then began it’s upward trajectory. Can’t claim the same will happen this time, but the right acqtn at the right price is not necessarily a BAD thing. Just whacks the stock price upside the head for a bit. Which is always an experience one would like to avoid… but comes with the territory too.)

    I know… ramble, ramble, ramble.

  124. 124
    zman Says:

    Please keep rambling.

  125. 125
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    The Spy Network has circled back with an answer. No 2ndary.

    Two aggessive Asshole Banks (but i repeat myself) were pitching a deal, trying to drum up Underwriting Fees. But, no go. Schiller doesn’t need to push out bond maturities and he doesn’t need the money right now. Bottom line = being told he AIN’T gonna dilute us little people (or the really really smart private funds who hold the majority of his equity).

    So, there was fire, under the smoke of that 2ndary rumor… but it sounds like Schiller stomped it out. And the i-bankers went home empty-handed.

    (Have I mentioned recently that I still haven’t forgiven Schiller for issuing that 7.25% Perpetual Convertible Perferred? One should bring it up to him, as often as possible, least he forget and do something that stoopid again.)

  126. 126
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    AAPL Makes you want to give up the energy markets! I have to admit selling to reposition has been very tough as it is hard to get any good entry points.

  127. 127
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Ha! And just to put the Cynical Cherry On Top… I would not be surprised if the Trading Desks of said Asshole Bankers were actually shorting the stock today. “That’s not legal!” you cry. Ha. Double-HA. I hope the stock snaps back in their nasty little short faces tomorrow morning.

    Rant (and reporting) over.

  128. 128
    zman Says:

    Thanks much BOP, good dd.

  129. 129
    zman Says:

    API’s were pretty bullish. Last week they ran opposite to EIA so this may be a bit of a true up.

  130. 130
    choices Says:

    #125-“Asshole Banks (but I repeat myself)”

    Classic!!!!

    Z, I think BOP should be awarded a cap, t-shirt, or coffee cup for the comment of the month.

  131. 131
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BedTime Market Strategist

    Resume Rally or Sellable Snapback?

    The S&P 500 today was a session of respectable upside follow through to the bounce following Friday’s selloff. For only the 3rd session since September Slaughter of 2008, the S&P 500 closed above the 1200 level. Even more impressive is that today’s gains were registered despite some high profile blue chip companies trading off post earnings. As a result, the Dow Industrials underperformed the S&P 500 by 58 basis points and the Russell 2000 by 120 basis points. The real question investors are asking themselves is now that the SEC Goldman Sachs* story has had a couple of sessions to be digested, can the rally resume or is this simply a technical snapback that should be sold? If an equal standard were applied across Wall Street with respect to synthetic CDO’s, then most banks should expect similar suits. The rise in the Financials today indicates that at least for now, the market is anticipating that this will remain a problem unique to Goldman. Despite the market’s interpretation, a risk, or at a minimum, uncertainty, remains. On the other hand, it appears as though Energy may be emerging as a new leadership sector. Crude continues to toil with the $85 level, but the S&P 500 Energy Sector posted a new closing high and is poised to breakout above the 453-458 resistance levels of the October and January peaks. The key determinant as to whether this is a resumption of the rally or a sellable snapback is how quickly the S&P 500 gets back above, and stays above, 1210. A gap-up opening in Apple does not do much to help (it probably hurts) the sustainability of a move above 1210 tomorrow.

    Victim’s Rights.

    It is still hard to get over the sympathy for some of the alleged “victims” of the subprime crisis. Now there is concern in Washington that AIG was taken advantage of. Remarkable, the company had a Trillion Dollar derivatives book, but people are worried they were taken advantage of. As you know, similar concerns were recently expressed for ACA and IKB, two firms whose businesses centered around derivatives. In February 2004, Risk magazine published an article by Nicholas Dunbar titled “Conservative Mittelstand lender IKB has transformed itself into Germany’s biggest investor in structured credit – with a taste for riskier deals.” Apparently, IKB was not a novice in the land of synthetic CDO’s. “In April 2000, for instance, the bank had issued a €500 million balance-sheet synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO) arranged by Deutsche Bank, and subsequently two €3 billion synthetic CLOs with KfW.” They were among the pioneers in using “credit enhancement” by having the bank provide a liquidity backstop to their SIV Conduit dubbed “Rhineland.” Dirk Röthig, who built the business at IKB, explained how advanced they were. “Thus while Rhineland contains CDOs with exposure to Enron, WorldCom and most recently Parmalat, the effect does not constitute a loss,” says Röthig. “We’ve seen a few downgrades. But the structures could cover even these kinds of losses without being really affected in a way that could see losses in the tranches we are holding,” IKB insiders were not the only ones impressed by their acumen. “Since IKB is known to have heavily invested in mezzanine-level CDO tranches, do the bank’s steadily improving investment performance numbers prove that IKB’s risk taking has paid off? The rating agencies think so. ‘It sounds like quite a profitable strategy,’ says Moody’s Lautier. Bankers concur. One Frankfurt-based structured credit salesman at a major bank says, ‘They’re very sophisticated and smart investors. They can price a CDO to the last basis point’.” Interestingly, a Fortune article from 2007 after IKB imploded notes that Röthig left IKB in early 2006 as he clashed with his superiors, over among other things “his dispute involved a refusal by superiors to allow him to back off his aggressive strategy.” The level of sympathy being extended to the players who nearly blew up the system is astounding.

  132. 132
    zman Says:

    ZCAT and ZIM updated:
    http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/holdings-wiki/

  133. 133
    zman Says:

    Hopefully the site will be working better tomorrow. Good night.

  134. 134
    RMD Says:

    Seems to me the GS thing IS vaguely about Victim’s Rights only. It is not about whether GS lost $ on the deal (irrelevant), whether the buyer was sophisticated (irrelevant), whether the buyer knew there was a seller (duh) short or not (irrelevant). It is about whether GS owed more disclosure to the buyer as a party (third party or some form of principal) to the trade which was not disclosed. But hey, what do I know? The issue is disclosure.

  135. 135
    ram Says:

    Great – now I can log on.

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