16
Apr

T.G.I.Expiry

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

 

Market Sentiment Watch: Looking a little tired despite strong earnings from B of A and GE. Today I'll mop up the last of the April positions in the ZCAT with an eye towards closing them out pretty early in the day as I think the market is ready to get this week over with and pinning action will start early. Click here if you want to run Max Pain on your names.


In Today's Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Storage Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - Shelf thoughts, TAT
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch

ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio)

  • $14,700
  • 41% Cash
  • Positions for the quick view are updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page.
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • None

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $18,800
  • 100% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • None

 

Commodity Watch

Crude oil eased $0.33 to close at $85.51 yesterday on minor profit taking, a less stout equity market and a stronger dollar. Crude continues to remain resilient with little sense of panic in the pits. This morning crude is trading off nearly a dollar on flattish equity futures and a slightly stronger dollar. A massive cancellation of European flights due to volcanic ash may be playing into the story today as well.


Natural gas dropped $0.21 to close just under $4 yesterday after the EIA reported a larger than expected (and record) injection into storage (see below). Shoulder season weather (little heating or cooling demand) and still elevated production levels are combining to yield the large injections and I would not expect large positive moves in natural gas prices for the next several months. We should also not "fall out of bed" on price in the near term either as coal prices are elevated, revisions from EIA regarding gas supply loom at the end of this month. This morning gas is trading up slightly.

  • Cabot Marcellus Watch: Pennsylvania has ordered the closure of three of COG's wells over claims the company has polluted local drinking wells with natural gas due to faulty casing. Big fines and corrective measures ordered as well.

Natural Gas Storage Review


ZComments: Bigger than expected injection causes a sell down in the gas markets. This is the definition of a range bound market in the shoulder season. Bulls need heat to pile up quickly, or we will see more larger than normal injections and gas will remain soft for a longer period of time.


 

Stuff We Care About Today

APA For ME Implications for the Shelf Players

Couple of points on valuation, first the tables, then the comments that fall out of the tables.

 

... and now for the comments:

EXXI

  1. EXXI is fairly valued on current proved reserves. The problem with that is it has 12 + ultra deep prospects that can result in a multiple of the current proved tally.
  2. EXXI also is low on the flowing barrel mark to this deal, not surprising given the recent ramp. My thoughts are that this differential will not last long given the fact that the BOEs are more oily than most of its peers.
  3. LOE, not shown in a table is necessarily higher than many of the Shelf players but again, given the oily nature, the impact of this higher cost is negligible on cash margins.

MCF

  1. LOE is much lower for these guys than any of the others. That deserves a little explanation and the best thing I have found is their streamlined, outsourced corporate structure with a focus on all in return. Their quarterly cash costs are close to $0.75 / Mcfe vs an offshore group average of north of $3.00 / Mcfe. So low gas prices are not that big a deal to them as they might seem.
  2. The implied value of their reserves at $2.48/ Mcfe is strikingly low. I think that near term potential discoveries could help to partially close this gap.

Other players don't really stand out based on the deal metrics. CPE appears over

TAT Deal With Turkish National Oil Co Expanding

  • TAT to begin exploring for shale gas in Turkey within in three months
  • Gas in Turkey is currently selling for the equivalent of $9 per Mcf.
  • This is new data to their recent presentation and I'll keep you posted when I get more details. 

 

 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  •  CAM raised to Outperform at BMO, target $55

251 Responses to “T.G.I.Expiry”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Housing starts and permits higher than expected.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/march-housing-starts-up-for-third-straight-month-2010-04-16

  2. 2
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — thank you for going over the implications of the APA/ME metrics for the GoM group. Can’t argue with your per bbl reserves and flowing barrel values.

    However, I come up with a different valuation for EXXI (no surprise, of course). I used free cash flow, EBITDA estimates, and debt and cash on the balance sheet estimated as of YE2010 and YE2011 (FYE = June 30th). Then applied the implied multiples to those estimates. Arguably, a company rarely trades to its theoretical take-out or full NAV value, but even discounted to the ME transaction, I get to a higher number.

    One caveat… a BOE is not created equal. 47% of ME’s proved reserves are oily or liquids. EXXI’s proved reserves are 64% oil.

    Just a few thoughts.

  3. 3
    elijahwc Says:

    VQ sells TX assets

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    BOP – hear ya and my table was by no means a fair take on their valuation, just an implied multiple of the APA/ME deal. I use those kinds of tables to sort wheat from chaff, much like I do with the P/CF and TEV/EBITDA tables. Just looking for outliers. Agree a barrel is not a barrel is not a barrel. All depends on costs to lift it, local market etc. Anyway, from those tables and another I didn’t post (cash costs because I’m out of date by a quarter and was too lazy last night to update it for all of them) I continue to see EXXI and MCF as cheap.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Eli – saw it, also adjust guidance, bumping Mowry shale development.

  6. 6
    bill Says:

    >. I think that near term potential discoveries could help to partially close this gap.

    on mcf, new discoveries would make the gap larger unless y0u are implying price goes up with discoveries . I figured mcf was worth mid 80’s and your valuation seems to suggest that. i want back into that name

    bop good point, One caveat… a BOE is not created equal

    mcf is all ng. Three redeeming factor’s, no debt, low cost structure, and they have a liquids component. They were able to generate 4 per mcf cash flow when avg price were 3.99 so the liquids component (uplift) carries all other cash costs

    its a freaking atm cash machine with ng over 6

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Bill – I am. I think a potential knock on valuation there is the fact that they have 9 producing wells offshore. The incremental reserves from the new wells won’t be booked until the end of their year but the stock should like the production portfolio diversification well before that.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    More MCF … and I plan to add the weird little name to the ZLT on a decent pullback anytime in the next month. I may take a toehold next week and add on that pullback if it comes. It’s not a good name for options trading but may be a good candidate for covered call writing.

  9. 9
    bill Says:

    One final thing on mcf, the 350 proved reserves doesnt include nautilus which was recently discovered and will grow production 25 % and the little cotton valley wells

    It could be another 50 bcf ( my swag )

    ye reserves for mcf was 6/30/ 2009 so its 9 mos old

  10. 10
    bill Says:

    Im waiting for a pullback too, Insiders are selling, ng is falling, and the name keeps going up

    I dont like the unknown of the production outage/impact

  11. 11
    bill Says:

    sd is indicated to open up a nickel which should be worth 20 cents to ard

    i bet if the deal went away ards price wouldnt fall

  12. 12
    bill Says:

    I need to pull some details on ards severance package because i have no clue what motivated these guys to accept a deal with sd on the terms negotiated

  13. 13
    elijahwc Says:

    XOM with a science project 6 mile horz well

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Bill – my offshore rule of thumb for Shelf gas well discoveries when I don’t know a pre or post reserve estimate would put it at 35 Bcf.

    I think Nautilus production is set to be 20 mmcfgpd, so I assume a 5 year, straight-line decline of the reserves, which gets me to about 7 Bcf of production per year. It doesn’t quite work that way in real life but it gets you in the ball park pretty often, again, only on the Shelf, only with a gas well, and you can only do it once they tell you what production is going to be. You also gotta figure there is some capex about half way through the life of the well for a workover to maintain production.

  15. 15
    bill Says:

    sd short interest has almost doubled from year end and none of this due to ard deal which will add to it

    http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=SD&selected=SD

  16. 16
    bill Says:

    14 that makes good sense .. Thanks !

  17. 17
    bill Says:

    how long does it take to file a proxy for these mergers?

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Bill – it’s very “ball parky” to be sure but it will due for our purposes.

    Eli – people are going to be drilling ultra deep shelf from onshore soon too. Notice XOM didn’t say what a 30,000 foot lateral cost them.

  19. 19
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HeadTrader thinks we start red, turn green by close. “It’s not like u can short anything based on EPS #s…”

    Factoid = Earnings season is off to a good start so far, with 79% of companies (of 36 that reported) exceeding Street expectations.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    re 17, don’t know, never paid much attention to the timing of that, BOP? ELI?

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    re 19. Let me know if you see any color on the % companies beating on the top line.

  22. 22
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #20 with all the rules and regs and disclosure requirements and caveats and projections and legal opinions and accountant fees and SEC approval and lions and tigers and bears… a lot longer than it used to. If the SEC doesn’t like the color of your hair on a certain day, they can throw the proxy back at you. If your SEC reviewer has to take a few “personal days off” because he/she felt harrassed at work… then add a few more weeks to the process. Really too many variables to project a reliable timeline, these days.

  23. 23
    bill Says:

    22 lol

    ty for input

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Oil on a bit of a profit taking plunge this morning, doubting that lasts unless the dollar decides to ramp.

    Re 20. Wow.

  25. 25
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I once saw a proxy held up because the SEC reviewer wanted the company to produce a “physical inventory count” on “small hand tools” from 3 years prior. It was a rental equipment company that had been founded only 5 yrs prior, mainly to rent large earth-moving-type equipment… and they didn’t DO “physical inventory counts” of the small stuff on their shelves until year 4. Due to SarBox, the company’s legal counsel would not sign off on an estimate of a “physical count” from 3 yrs prior (and I couldn’t blame him)… so the merger ultimately never went through.

    The value of the “physical inventory” was something like $35,000 for a company that did $50mm in annual revenues. I couldn’t make this stuff up, if I tried.

  26. 26
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: SLB staffing operations in Iraq. Will have 300 employees by July and 600 by year end. We haven’t seen this in awhile.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    WRES on the tape announcing the recommencement of drilling in CA. Could drive the little name to $3, am not planning on playing at the moment.

    Oil rebounding now, just looked like it spiked lower right after breaking $84.

    Group looks pinned already.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    re 26 – yeah, the country is heating up. Saw that TPAO (Turkish National Petro Co.) is getting ready to bid on some exploration across the border into Iraq. Wondering if they bring TAT along for the ride on some of that work.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Nicky – got levels? Thanks.

  30. 30
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: HK trading reminds me of when my dog got skunked. The stock can’t shake off the smell of NG. I am am buying more today. I still love my dog. lol πŸ™‚

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    TPH coming out with a big report on LNG later today. Saw that they lowered their 2010 and 2011 estimate of how much LNG is going to come into the U.S. due to better prices in Asia and Europe. U.S. 2010/2011 both now expected to be less than 2.0 Bcfgpd imports. That’s not exactly a tsunami of price crushing gas to worry about. No doubt, if prices do recovery to $6 later this year, the volumes will be up modestly versus their expectations but still, it’s no where near the 6 to 10 Bcfgpd many analysts have been looking for for the last 3 to 5 years. The same tsunami I have been saying just isn’t showing up.

  32. 32
    reefguy Says:

    13- location of XOM long hz?

  33. 33
    Nicky Says:

    Morning all. Didn’t quite get to my 1215 level yesterday (1214 was the top I believe) but this does look to be the first of the expected pullbacks. Pullback should go to 1200 – 1205 (there is even a H & S pattern which may or may not play out which targets 1198).

  34. 34
    RMD Says:

    Z: in #5 do you mean Monterey, not Mowry, or is one of them a subset of the other? (I u/s in CO and NM the Noibrara is a part of the Mowry.)

  35. 35
    elijahwc Says:

    #32 Santa Ynez unit, offshore southern California

  36. 36
    reefguy Says:

    eli- thanks

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    RMD – typo on my part. Monterey.

  38. 38
    West Says:

    Real like XEC right here.

  39. 39
    ram Says:

    JB – Did you still have a P&F chart for CIGX?

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    SEC looking in GE’s books. Hmmm.

    Market asleep, volumes are pathetic.

  41. 41
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    MMR reports Monday morning, before mrkt open.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Sudden rebound in equity indexes, weird, but not much of a rally just yet. Will punt the SD April calls shortly. Several other names will be scuds in the ZCAT. ZIM is 100% cash.

  43. 43
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — the price of CIGX could (almost literally) do anything between now and the next fundamental data point. I expect them to go live, with their distribution around the 1st of June. Until then, price action is meaningless.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the reminder BOP. I may play it in the ZIM if I like the PR as it will have a ways to bounce back to the recent high.

    Will have a new Catalyst List out Monday or Tuesday.

    SSN should have another update out Monday night.

  45. 45
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #39 ram…on a sell signal in O’s…but I use P&F charts for stocks at this price only for very broad picture…I would rely more on the intraday and daily…I’m watching it now…it’s having a hard time finding a bottom…but if (IF) I see a good spot I’ll probably add a bit given its fundamental potential and special situation status…

  46. 46
    Dman Says:

    BOP – #43 meaningless might be too strong a word. How about “potentially profitable” πŸ™‚
    I just doubled down on yesterday’s buy. Volume has been declining almost as sharply as price, with an upsurge today on the gap down. Despite the price being almost halved from the peak of $3.69, today is the first gap down, suggesting exhaustion.

    Well, it’s a theory anyway.

  47. 47
    Jerome Blank Says:

    CIGX…looks like its rounding a bit now…took a bit to get filled on just a small amount at a tad above 1.93

  48. 48
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dman — i like your positive spin on things. And you are right. Mr Mrkt’s bounces are what opportunity looks like. Buy low, sell high… can’t do that without volatility.

    But, you’re right… and I put more of my money where my mouth is y’day too. It was a level I was comfortable with. One has to keep in mind that CIGX has a very active, very rabid short following. That means all sorts of things can happen… one has to keep one’s eye on the fundamental ball and ignore the jeers from the sideline, sometimes.

  49. 49
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    headline — SEC charging Goldman with fraud in one of their CDOs.

  50. 50
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Guess the SEC has decided to shake GS down for some cash. I’d cry… but it would be crocodial tears.

  51. 51
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    From HT — GS has been selling spoos in the pit all morning. Probably made more in profits than their fine on their own news.

  52. 52
    elijahwc Says:

    #51 but did John Paulson?

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    ZTRADES

    ZCAT – End of expiration house cleaning

    Sold the SD $7 calls for $0.30 with the stock at 7.30, for a 51% loss.

    ZLT – WHX

    Tripled down on the WHX position for $20.19. I continue to model a 12 to 14% yield for this name over the next 12 months.

  54. 54
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ellijah — read the backstory… tell me if any one feels sorry for John…

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/04/16/204931/sec-charges-goldman-sachs-with-subprime-fraud/

  55. 55
    ram Says:

    Thanks BOP and JB. Added more at 1.91.

  56. 56
    dij Says:

    BOP, tears aside is this a time to come out of the weeds and strike on GS? I cannot imagine it is going to hurt its bottomline.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    WLL dipping sharply, probably just noise, may take some Mays in a bit here.

  58. 58
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Merger Mondays are back in style… and earnings reports have been pretty good. Just tough to see the mrkt closing significantly RED today.

    Just my 1 1/2 cents.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    S&P cracks 1,200. I can’t count the number of talking heads yesterday calling for 1225 with their reasoning being that the market was up.

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Crude suddenly down $2.50, no headlines that I see to account for it. That’s what’s tripping WLL.

  61. 61
    bondbuddha Says:

    picked up a little CIGX 1.90, we shall see boys and girls, CMO markets quiet today, shhhhhhhh

  62. 62
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    dij — probably so. It will be a rounding error on GS’s profit line. And they have already found the partner who’s to blame… so it’s not going to be a systemic problem, like bear stearns, i would think. (And GS is powerful, unlike BS’s Jimmy.) But, i don’t do GS… might do BAC on the backdraft tho.

  63. 63
    Dman Says:

    Z – does the crude contract expire next week?

  64. 64
    dij Says:

    Bop #62, Thanks

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZCAT – WLL

    WLL – Added a May $75 call for 9.60 with the stock at $83.37. Stock getting hit along with oil and the market over SEC news pertaining to Goldman. I was going to wait to roll into May’s but it’s a cheap name amongst the Bakken players and E&P in general and I wanted exposure going forward so this seems like a pretty good time to add it.

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    re 63, yes, on Tuesday. You can always see the expiration on the barchart charts at upper right of the chart.

    http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=CLK0&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=

  67. 67
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    dij — just bot some FAS for a short-term trade…

  68. 68
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    New cat watch for VQ: on 5/26/10 VQ is going to have its anaylsts day. It will report on the couple of Monterey wells that it has drilled.

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    Thanks BSJ, will put it on there.

  70. 70
    Dman Says:

    Z – I just noticed that as of yesterday WLL was about to swing negative on both hourly and daily MACD. The daily signal was weak, but even so the combination usually yields some kind of downside swing. I was watching WLL yesterday so I should have seen this.

    Looks like it is trying to bounce from recent support at $83. If it retests the trendline it broke out from (on 1st April), that would be at around $82.

  71. 71
    elijahwc Says:

    #54 Not feeeling sorry for Paulson. this goes more under the catagory of “love your country, fear your government”, and he’s a big target.

  72. 72
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Iceland volcano: I suggest energy investors keep an eye on this volcano. The last time this particular volcano erupted it lasted from Dec 1821 until Jan 1823. The thing is if this volcano lava melts the glaciers holding down the top of Katla, then Katla could blow which would pump gigantic amounts of ash into the atomosphere.

    Over the past year, there has been TV programs on Nat Geo and the History channel talking about this real threat and the possibly of an extended deep freeze.

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    NS on the tape with a story talking about rail transporting EOG’s crude in the Bakken all the way to Louisiana.

    Anyone familiar with the NS MLP. I don’t do transport plays but considering this is Bakken crude and we know production is only doing one thing it makes me wonder about their potential to raise the distribution as they move to transporting 10,000 bopd to market.

  74. 74
    Nicky Says:

    1192 needs to hold for there to be further upside

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    re 72, interesting thought.

  76. 76
    kiaora Says:

    Z…was that a may 75 call on WLL ?

  77. 77
    Dman Says:

    #72 bsj – when you say freeze, how big a temperature drop were they talking about?

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    Market running quickly lower, your tax dollars at work.

    Kiaora, yes.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    GS on sale, down $24 or 13%.

    Iceland is financially troubled. Maybe they should charge the world for fixed global warming via their volcano. Ash emission credits.

  80. 80
    Dman Says:

    BOP – from your link,

    “Goldman Sachs shares were descending rapidly on the news. Down 9 per cent at 167 pixel time on Friday.”

    What the %$@# is “pixel time” ??

  81. 81
    baylor3217 Says:

    wow. nose dive in the last 5-10 min on WLL

  82. 82
    bill Says:

    than you uncle sam. you just wiped out 1 % of the trading value of all us equity

    how about prosecuting politicians on the take

  83. 83
    Dman Says:

    #79 “Give us the money or the volcano gets it”

  84. 84
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    NS is one of the big time players in the MLP space. It is into storage, both refined product and oil, transportation, both refined product and oil, and asphalt. William E Greenley is the guilding light behind this company. It is really one of the heavy hitters among MLPs.

    Its general partner is NSH.

  85. 85
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dman — good catch. I have no @#$%&*ing idea.

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    re 81 = nose dive on most things in the last 5 to 10 minutes.

    re 82. No kidding.

  87. 87
    VTZ Says:

    How about we blame GS and prosecute them and others for the rampant fraud? I’d rather have regulators that do their job than banks that run the country.

  88. 88
    bill Says:

    79 rofl

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    BSJ – thanks, was having trouble with a screen where I grab profiles for company’s so thought I’d ask you. Sounds like they are too big for this shipment to move the needle for them then. I did not know that some of the crude was going that far. Better market price and better differentials for all the Bakken names as time goes on and more capacity out of the basin is added.

  90. 90
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Dman: a big one. A mini ice age. This is one of the things that TV shows like to put on to scare its watchers. In geological past, when Katla erupted, it cause a serve cooling of the earth.

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    V – purely out of self interest, I’d rather not have the regulators break this stuff during expiration Friday.

  92. 92
    1520sbroad Says:

    Been a while since we had a good old fashioned expiration day volatility event. I’m sure there are a lot of folks set up around 1200 on the SPX. The futures finished down about 4pts I think – I would start looking at that as the afternoon wears on.

  93. 93
    VTZ Says:

    Ok… they coulve waited til Monday πŸ™‚

  94. 94
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE: 89 — yeah, NS has its fingers in many pies, and this is just a new one.

  95. 95
    1520sbroad Says:

    Mini Ice Age – I love it.

  96. 96
    bill Says:

    on goldman, why do they keep mentioning paulsons name?

    how about corzine? How bout timmy?

    did paulson personally short cdo’s

    what happen to let buyers beware

    this imho is a left wing witch hunt

  97. 97
    VTZ Says:

    Part of the reason that the banks run the country though is the fact that people get all upset when the market (run by the banks) falls whenever any sort of regulation comes out.

    We all agree that the banks need to be more regulated but then, when it comes down to doing something about it we are all like “woah woah woah, the market fell 1% on that news, give me my instant gratification back”

  98. 98
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Potentially a number of good opportunites developing out there…a lot of the 30 min charts are damaged from today’s price action, but dialing out to the daily charts…

    NOG holding wihtin yesterday’s range on the new P&F buy signal…

    KOG bounced off the 200 period on the intraday… 30 min

    HAL holding above 50/100 daily SMA avg’s

    EXXI …even the 30 min does not look all that bad given the day…still looks great on the daily

  99. 99
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    bill — read link on #54… Paulson & Co.

  100. 100
    bill Says:

    >We all agree that the banks need to be more regulated

    i dont agree.. i think congress/politicians runs the country, and when things go bad , they blame others

    barney dems resisted more controls for fnma. Countrywide gave favors to key politicians

    atty gen cuomo is behind this..re spitzer

    he/they corrupt as hell

  101. 101
    bill Says:

    cnbc guy says witch hunt to continue

    mainstreet sees this differently

    thats why they will continue with witch hunt

    lol gotta love it

    i wont be happy until 40 politicians get locked up

  102. 102
    dij Says:

    BOP, thanks for FAS.

    Dman: How about WLL support at 81.75?

    And EOG good support at 107.75, though it is liking the 108.4 level at the moment.
    All of this as long as it is not the beginning of the end.

  103. 103
    VTZ Says:

    Thsi is probably why they are talking about Paulson.

    “The SEC alleged that Goldman structured and marketed a synthetic collateralized debt obligation that hinged on the performance of subprime residential mortgage-backed securities, and which cost investors more than $1 billion.

    It alleged that Goldman did not tell investors “vital information” about the CDO, called ABACUS. This included that a major hedge fund, Paulson & Co, was involved in choosing which securities would be part of the portfolio, and had taken a short position against the CDO in a bet its value would fall.

    According to the SEC complaint, Paulson & Co paid Goldman $15 million to structure the CDO, which closed on April 26, 2007. Little more than nine months later, 99 percent of the portfolio had been downgraded, the SEC said.

    The SEC said Goldman Vice President Fabrice Tourre was principally responsible for creating ABACUS. It also charged him with fraud.

    Goldman, Paulson and Tourre were not immediately available for comment.”

    Paulson personally took home 4.3 billion dollars in 2008-2009 as a result of the performance of the fund.

  104. 104
    VTZ Says:

    The politicians probably made them do it… better give them more free reign, they’ll probably clean up their act.

  105. 105
    Dman Says:

    bill – can I ask you: is there anything that you *don’t* regard as a left-wing witch hunt?

    I would just point out that it’s very hard to actually find any actual lefties in the US. You’d have to go to Europe to find any … and I’m not sure your blood pressure would be up to it.

  106. 106
    jiveyjr Says:

    I’m scared BOP; we still buying on the red days

  107. 107
    VTZ Says:

    FASB essentially gave the banks free reign on their portfolio marks… How is that working out? When the FDIC shuts down banks they are receiving a fraction of what the assets are marked at every single week. There has not been a bank that has received close to the mark value for their assets.

  108. 108
    VTZ Says:

    How about the marks on OTC derivatives? The banks are fighting tooth and nail to avoid a real exchange because that is the hugest fraud of them all.

  109. 109
    VTZ Says:

    The whole thing is one big fraud, I still stand by my statement that anyone who wants to see less or the same regulation has not learned anything or is closing their eyes.

    I agree that the politicians have a part to play as well.

  110. 110
    Dman Says:

    dij – on WLL, yes there is a tiny gap up on April 1 and if it fills that would be at $81.76. It almost got filled already today, so I’d expect it to fill soon enough. Not that the market cares what I expect. Maybe the govt has more surprises in store.

  111. 111
    baylor3217 Says:

    When people talk of more regulation, how about we just go back to where we were before clinton, phil graham and the like did away with glass-steagall and then later doing away with uptick, etc.

    SOX has really helped out a lot as well. Just shifted a lot of money around and made it a lot harder for me to do what I do best, which is provide a good product / service for my customers.

    Who is John Galt?

  112. 112
    VTZ Says:

    Why do you think bank profits are good on “trading revenues” or “proprietary trading” ever since FASB changed the marking rules. They can say their assets are worth whatever they want so long as they don’t get shut down and there’s no way anyone can argue because they aren’t traded anywhere on an exchange.

  113. 113
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jiveyjr… earning have been good, energy prices holding in, jobs not being created (but have govt to thank for that). But this “recovery” IS happening. Not a robust recovery… not a straight-up recovery… but a recovery, nonetheless. The Credit Markets have put a foundation under this.

    I’m with bill… pols are corrupt. And the more $$ and power you cede to them, the more corrupt they are. I would rather have some corruption in individual companies rather than wholesale corruption across the board in our own govt. I can live with a bad apple or two or three. I can’t live with a corrupt govt.

  114. 114
    VTZ Says:

    John Galt would’ve puked if he saw the banking system the way it is. He would call them “destroyers” no doubt, they would be lumped with the politicians, not the Reardon’s of the world.

  115. 115
    baylor3217 Says:

    ive been thinking about adding to my chk position here. THoughts?

  116. 116
    VTZ Says:

    You guys are crazy.

  117. 117
    skimo Says:

    John Galt is a fictional character in Ayn Rand’s novel Atlas Shrugged. Although he is absent from much of the text, he is the subject of the novel’s often repeated question, “Who is John Galt?”, and the quest to discover the answer.

    As the plot unfolds, Galt is acknowledged to be a creator and inventor who symbolizes the power of the individual capitalist. He serves as an idealistic counterpoint to the social and economic structure depicted in the novel. The depiction portrays a society based on oppressive bureaucratic functionaries and a culture that embraces the stifling mediocrity and egalitarianism of socialistic idealism. In this popular mass ideology, the industrialists of America were a metaphorical Atlas of Greek mythology, holding up the world, whom Galt convinces to “shrug,” by refusing to lend their productive genius to the regime any longer

  118. 118
    baylor3217 Says:

    amen VTZ…

    I personally can’t wait to see what my marginal tax brackets and my FICA tax brackets go to next year. FICA stayed even this year after a decent run up the last few years, but I expect next year the numbers will more than make up for the zero increase from 2009 to 2010.

  119. 119
    jiveyjr Says:

    #113…thx for your comments, was actually joking; but it evoked some really good commentary from you

  120. 120
    baylor3217 Says:

    oh and VTZ…Bring on the Morale Conditioner.

    The question is, who is Wesley Mouch in our government today?

  121. 121
    bill Says:

    the guy shorted the securities , he was right, for that he should be punished?

  122. 122
    baylor3217 Says:

    re 117 Skimo – now you gave away the whole book! hehe. jk

  123. 123
    baylor3217 Says:

    SSN down to .65….what are we thinking might be a good entry point? Still catalysts coming up

  124. 124
    baylor3217 Says:

    HAL taking a larger plunge compared to its peers.

  125. 125
    VTZ Says:

    I’ve been trying to think of a Wesley Mouch analog and surely there is one. The entirety of Atlas Shrugged is basically playing out before our eyes.

    People like Pickens are being stifled and favour is given to the banks who provide no “productive genius”.

  126. 126
    bill Says:

    id sell everything until these commies are thrown out of office

    im done for the day

  127. 127
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jivey #113… phew. ‘Fraid you were going all wobbly on me.

    One thing i do worry about tho… they are going to try to reintroduce cap-and-tax by the end of this month. Just can’t see how that will make the mrkt feel good about doing biz in the U.S.

  128. 128
    cargocult Says:

    I have an idea. Why don’t Republicans root out the corrupt politicians in their party and Democrats do the same in theirs. At least we can vote politicians out of office. Corporations, however, provide the biggest source of money for those corrupt politicians and the Supreme Court just ruled “no hold barred”.

  129. 129
    baylor3217 Says:

    With the policies of our current government, I have had a hard time seeing how the market can appreciate materially over the next 3 years.

    I took half my 401k to a 3.5% fund about 5 months ago. That has not looked so genius to date.

    I just really fear we have Roosevelt playing out again before our very eyes. 1929 hardly compared to 1933 to 1937.

    I’ve played it 50/50. That said, I missed out on some of the greatest trades last March, possibly in my lifetime. The one I regret the most is not picking up AXP under $10.

    Talking to more of my small business owner friends, they have not been impressed with anything the government has done to help them create jobs and run their business. They don’t want any help at all, trust me. We have really slid way further down the slippery slope.

  130. 130
    zman Says:

    Baylor – re SSN – already long in the low $0.40’s, and not looking to add more unless something unexpected happens. They should have a stabilized rate on their first good medium length Bakken lateral soon, maybe next week. In May they may spud a second well. Finally, they can talk more soon about their plans for the Niobrara. But my next action is likely to be selling more.

  131. 131
    baylor3217 Says:

    Re 128 – I’ll second that. They are all largely one in the same now and have been for almost 2 decades.

  132. 132
    baylor3217 Says:

    0ddly, UNG up today.

  133. 133
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Why can’t corporations (or small groups of people banded together) say what they want? If the voters are so stupid as to just follow what corporations say… well… are we better off just hearing what the press says? or the pols in office? If we are that stupid that we have to be protected from corporate free-speech… we shouldn’t be voting anyway. We are too stupid.

  134. 134
    baylor3217 Says:

    I got in around .43 on SSN and flushed my position this week. This may be one I want to let go and be happy for the profits I made (thanks to the great ideas of the folks on this board).

  135. 135
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    yeah… an unions didn’t contribute a red cent.

    ha. (“red cent”… i amuse myself)

  136. 136
    dij Says:

    SSN should be solid at .6

  137. 137
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Traders have been waiting for some volatility to hit this market. They got their wish.

  138. 138
    VTZ Says:

    For those watching the reactionary plunder of the gold paper markets, they should find support at 1130 and then again as low as 1120.

  139. 139
    zman Says:

    Well, as for me, I chose not to panic, just not my way. Market doesn’t seem to be panicked either and was due a pullback, so is oil. Grabbing lunch.

  140. 140
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    VTZ — why would gold be down on a day like this?

  141. 141
    VTZ Says:

    Because the banks are raging and its massively manipulated.

    I ignore days like this and may contemplate an add to my already full position.

  142. 142
    Dman Says:

    The latest investigation into the East Anglia climate research has been released. If you go to the page below there is a link below the press release that gives you the report PDF.

    http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/press/CRUstatements/oxburgh

    I thought this might be of interest to BOP and perhaps others. I don’t encourage bill to read the full report, out of concern for his blood pressure.

    The conclusions are:

    ——-

    1. We saw no evidence of any deliberate scientific malpractice in any of the work
    of the Climatic Research Unit and had it been there we believe that it is likely
    that we would have detected it. Rather we found a small group of dedicated if
    slightly disorganised researchers who were ill-prepared for being the focus of
    public attention. As with many small research groups their internal procedures
    were rather informal.

    2. We cannot help remarking that it is very surprising that research in an area that
    depends so heavily on statistical methods has not been carried out in close
    collaboration with professional statisticians. Indeed there would be mutual
    benefit if there were closer collaboration and interaction between CRU and a
    much wider scientific group outside the relatively small international circle of
    temperature specialists.

    3. It was not the immediate concern of the Panel, but we observed that there were
    important and unresolved questions that related to the availability of
    environmental data sets. It was pointed out that since UK government adopted
    a policy that resulted in charging for access to data sets collected by
    government agencies, other countries have followed suit impeding the flow of
    processed and raw data to and between researchers. This is unfortunate and
    seems inconsistent with policies of open access to data promoted elsewhere in
    government.

    4. A host of important unresolved questions also arises from the application of
    Freedom of Information legislation in an academic context. We agree with the
    CRU view that the authority for releasing unpublished raw data to third parties
    should stay with those who collected it.

    Submitted to the University 12 April 2010

    ——-

    My comments:

    this pretty much agrees with my own impression, based on my very limited examination of some of the issues.

    In particular, it was apparent to me that the climate scientists were using fairly simple statistical tools to analyze biological time-series.

    The reason for this is that climate scientists are mostly physicists, and physics data isn’t usually as wildly variable as biological data. So physicists usually only learn fairly simple statistical methods. When confronted with more “difficult” data, they will try to cobble together a statistical approach based on methods they know and mathematical intuition.

    The inquiry panel suggests that instead they should have collaborated with professional statisticians.

    Anyone who has attempted to do that, however, would know that this might not be a good idea. To explain why would need a book-length exposition, but the discipline of statistics is a strange beast. It is the only branch of mathematics that has permitted the use of methods for many decades despite those methods having known flaws.

    So if you tried to work with a statistician, many times this would be a disaster. Or you could get lucky and find one of the few who really know what they are doing.

    Actually, the solution is to become an expert in statistics yourself, but not everyone wants to do that and it takes several years to do so.

    My own view is that yes they do need to upgrade their statistical approach (and not just for the tree-ring data). But they need to acquire the expertise themselves, one way or another.

    I also agree with the inquiry that is is another matter entirely to assume that the results obtained with simple methods are actually wrong. I would tend to guess that they got it mostly right, but in a cobbled together sort of fashion that is difficult to defend.

  143. 143
    baylor3217 Says:

    Market seems to be finding its footing for now.

  144. 144
    zman Says:

    BOP – they’re not thinking, they’re just selling. NG up today is a reflex to the drop from yesterday.

    Note CLB up big today. Could be a buyout rumor there. I recall when I was on vacation that I said two firms were probably targets in service for takeouts after SLB did their well control deal. WEL and CLB. WEL got taken out by HAL Monday and CLB will be lucky to be on their own very much longer. This could be why HAL is off more disproportionately today as they may be thought to be the suitor. If they take CLB I’ll buy the dip in HAL. That would be a very nice fit.

  145. 145
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I think today is a bit of a tempest in a teapot. Also, it’s expiry day. ALWAYS a weird trading day, in my book.

    Anyway, the CDO is old news. The investigation of GS is new news. But, don’t think it presents any “tip of the iceberg” that we don’t already know is there. So, bears get to growl today, bulls head off to lunch.

    Waiting in the weeds means you HOPE for days like this. Just don’t forget to do the pouncing part too.

  146. 146
    baylor3217 Says:

    Is there a reason to buy GS on this news?

    THere’s no way GS with all their interconnected connections is pummeled long term for whatever trumped up charges the administration is throwing at them to offset their large profits.

  147. 147
    Jerome Blank Says:

    EXXI might be a good opportunity here…closing the gap from yesterday on the 30 min…more like drifting down on low vol…

  148. 148
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dman — any graph that ignores the MWP is fraudulant. Temps were warmer in 1250 than they are today. Don’t see that on the chart.

  149. 149
    cargocult Says:

    BOP< I think you are missing the point that big business, and yes unions, have a disproportionate amount of money to spend relative to the population at large. Our voices in the dialogue are not equal. It is not that voters are stupid, it is more that money can effect what information makes it to the public in the first place, and what the spin is as well. Corporations are not people, they are legal constructs. But Anton Scalia thinks they are real, so they must be.

  150. 150
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    baylor — talking to HT, he thinks pick your financial of choice… doesn’t have to be GS. I bought some BAC at 18.55 today. It could go lower… but that was my Pounce Point.

  151. 151
    Nicky Says:

    1187 huge support for spx

  152. 152
    bill Says:

    128

    >Corporations, however, provide the biggest source of money for those corrupt politicians

    that like blaming small business for paying for protection from the mafia

    I have a friend who is a lawyer for a major law firm and he personally “donates” to both sides.

    Silicon Valley cried to washington about microsoft predatory practices , clinton prosectued GAtes, then the next thing you see is his press secretary getting hired by oracle

    Al Gore appointed to googles board . He gets billions for his hedge fund to start and electric car

    on an on

    pay to play

    the gov of our state gets a 5 m advance for his book that sell 50 copies

    Its all bs

    i know where to place blame

  153. 153
    bill Says:

    135

    ty for putting a BIG smile on my face

  154. 154
    elduque Says:

    I assume you would probably think that HK at this price is a buy???

  155. 155
    bill Says:

    dman, have you read Bastardis work on the topic?

  156. 156
    Dman Says:

    #137 & 138

    Yes, the markets were primed for a reaction to something. It didn’t really matter what that “something” was, the reaction would have been the same. Profits were there to be taken.

    It does look to me like providing some nice opportunities in precious metals and energy. Hard to see why either would be affected by GS being charged!

    Of course, the caveat is that patience might yield better opportunities and the market lately has been punishing the patient. So they are due some reward.

  157. 157
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    cargo — in theory, i agree with you. But in practise, it doesn’t work well. The interpretation of what a “business” is cannot be defined well enough to avoid the much bigger damage of “unintended consequences.” Like SarBox. Sounded good. But interpretation and implimentation and fees and costs and lost jobs meant it doesn’t work well in a dynamic economy/society.

    I’m a libertarian. So, tells you where I stand. I can stand some broken eggs in that I don’t believe you can legislate perfection without severe unintended consequences.

  158. 158
    ram Says:

    WOW, I agree with BOP!!

  159. 159
    DrLink Says:

    my two cents…..

    Dr.Links Congressional Reform Act of 2010

    1. Term Limits: 12 years only, one of the possible options below.

    A. Two Six year Senate terms
    B. Six Two year House terms
    C. One Six year Senate term and three Two Year House terms

    2. No Tenure / No Pension:

    A congressman collects a salary while in office and receives no pay when they are out of office.

    3. Congress (past, present & future) participates inSocial Security:

    All funds in the Congressional retirement fund moves to the Social Security system immediately. All future funds flow into the Social Security system, Congress participates with the American people.

    4. Congress can purchase their own retirement plan just as all Americans.

    5. Congress will no longer vote themselves a pay raise. Congressional pay will rise by the lower of CPI or 3%.

    6. Congress loses their current health care system and participates in the same health care system as the American people.

    7. Congress must equally abide in all laws they impose on the American people.

    8. All contracts with past and present congressmen are void effective 1/1/11.

    The American people did not make this contract with congressmen, congressmen made all these contracts for themselves.

    Serving in Congress is an honor, not a career. The Founding Fathers envisioned citizen legislators, serve your term(s), then go home and back to work..

  160. 160
    bill Says:

    oh a speech on financial reform in an hour

    HOW CONVENIENT lol

    what a joke

  161. 161
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #159 — I’ll gladly sign that petition!

  162. 162
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    So I guess it is alright for labor unions to support issues and pols, even though their memebers don’t support those isssues. This is a Cargo type of world I guess.

  163. 163
    zman Says:

    OK, enough. Back to energy.

  164. 164
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    The reason why corps need to look after their interest is because the main stream media does not do its job and either sides with the left, or trys to get ratings by scaring the public with muck rating reporting with is not factual.

  165. 165
    elduque Says:

    re 163 – I second that!!!

  166. 166
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    OK… i promise to shut up for now. This sometimes happens on Fridays. Spontaneous Combustion, i guess.

    Expiry days always seem to get out of the Weird Side of the Bed.

  167. 167
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HT calling the LOD is past.

  168. 168
    apbd Says:

    Hey BOP:
    I just bought some CIGX. But, for the life of me I can’t remember why. lol
    apbd

  169. 169
    elijahwc Says:

    My two cents on why would gold be down on a day like this?

    JP & Co is the largest holder of the GLD, and JP is highly promoting the launch of a big physical gold hedge fund.

    Retainers don’t come cheap.

  170. 170
    elijahwc Says:

    Agree with HT we could have a bottom right here

  171. 171
    zman Says:

    re 167. Thanks for the HT color.

    WHX unscathed today, really warmed up to the name and completely talking my book there.

    NG up a dime. It rallied on what was said to be oversold conditions earlier this week and then fell on the big injection yesterday. Interesting to see it is able to get back half of that loss. We are building storage too fast to make a real move in gas. Need heat.

    Eld – Re HK, yes, very much so, past couple of trading days aside, the name is well insulted from a balance sheet and hedging stand point to further weakness in gas. This move makes no sense except in the context of the day’s trading action.

  172. 172
    ilikericky Says:

    Re:141 VTZ care to share some Gold canters or sprinters that you like?I am in shopping mood,just Odeed on CIGX

  173. 173
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Z: If you really liked WHX, it would seem to me that you would want it to really tank so you could buy more at lower prices. Esp since this is a yield play and a one/two year hold.

  174. 174
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    apbd — #168 lol…. give it a few months… I’ll send you some tablets for that condition! πŸ˜‰

  175. 175
    Dman Says:

    #148 BOP – I’m still waiting for you to point me to an actual graph in an actual published paper and tell me where it is “fraudulent”. Then I would have somewhere to start.

    In recent years I’ve spent most of my time doing advanced statistical analysis of biological time-series. Unfortunately, in that time I have on several occasions detected fraudulent work. This constituted deliberate misrepresentation of references (i.e. earlier work) and deliberate misrepresentation of data. In some cases it required a very time-consuming forensic examination of the data and the authors’ analysis, as well as a careful parsing of the authors’ phrasing, in order to detect the malfeasance.

    Then I was faced with the depressing task of writing to the Editor (who had commissioned my review) and making the accusations of scientific malpractice in great detail.

    Because if you are going to make such accusations, you have to be 100% right. You have to make sure you know the material better than the authors knew it.

    My point is, I am all too aware that scientific fraud exists. It has become steadily more prevalent in recent years due to the ever-more-crazy science funding system.

    However it is still the case that fraud occurs mostly in the biomedical sciences, for the simple reason that it’s a lot easier to detect fraud in the physical sciences.

    Having had quite a lot of (depressing) experience in detecting fraudulent work, I notice that after a while you get a bit of a nose for sniffing it out. You see the same sort of game being played and this tells you to dig further.

    None of the tell-tale signs are apparent in the climate work that I have seen, countless bloggers and Mr Bastardi notwithstanding.

    But I’ve only had a glancing look at it, to be sure. If you can give me a concrete starting point, I will try to check it out. But it needs to start with the original work, not some second or third hand recital of it.

  176. 176
    zman Says:

    BSJ – I agree and have been waiting I guess about a month since the last purchase with no luck in getting it to fall. I wanted to own more and am about two-thirds of where I’d like to be ultimately but it just keeps moving on up so I decided to add higher and will dollar cost average into more in the next few months.

  177. 177
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dman — no MWP

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_controversy

  178. 178
    zman Says:

    BSJ – check your email. Thanks.

  179. 179
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Hammer 30 min print on SPX right on the 200 period SMA…that’s a good start, good sign things will srat to improve….

  180. 180
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    yikes…. sorry z!

    My FAS is looking better. shhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

  181. 181
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #179 “start”…to improve

  182. 182
    Dman Says:

    Z – when I looked yesterday, April HK open interest was highest at the $22 level and it still is. The market has cleverly found an excuse to hit that level.

    MaxPain sez $21 however. (??)

  183. 183
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HT pointing out that futures need to hold 1190, or he thinks mrkt will back down.

  184. 184
    zman Says:

    Dman – It was lower for a longer period of time so a lot of puts and calls accumulated around the $21 level. Then the stock lifted and then news came out so it gets a little off. But it’s still directionally correct and pretty close. I’m not an absolute believer in the whole max pain thing except on 12 Friday’s a year, lol.

  185. 185
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Credit market now talking about the possiblility of closing unch’d. Mind you, we got out to +5bps in IG today… so that would be a monster swing.

  186. 186
    zman Says:

    BOP – I humbly accept your apology for not convincing me to buy more KOG with my original purchase. Same goes for EXXI although my add lower just after the initial was a 10x down so that worked out pretty well. In your defense, I realize it sometimes takes me longer than the usual investor to warm to a new name. But thanks and don’t let it happen again, πŸ˜‰

  187. 187
    RMD Says:

    DrLink 159 you get my vote.

  188. 188
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — ha! was apologizing for something else. But, you’re so right. I have MUCH to feel guilty about.

  189. 189
    RMD Says:

    Dman 142 seems to explain a lot about the use of statistics, especially those used by gov’ts. I am thinking of the debate over ethanol’s energy use vs. production, but there are many many others.

  190. 190
    choices Says:

    z-do you have any updated opinion on RIG, ATW, or DO-seems that drilling activity is picking up.

    Thanks.

  191. 191
    zman Says:

    Rig count watch

    Oil up 1 to 506

    NG up 14 to 973, vs 760 a year ago. They just can’t help themselves. All of the gains come from Tx. Louisiana actually backed off 5 rigs.

  192. 192
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HT saying we held an important trend line in futs… think we might try another run up… maybe.

  193. 193
    choices Says:

    as an aside, BMO just cut DO to underperform and RIG to market perform.

  194. 194
    zman Says:

    Choices – I sort of feel like I missed the rig there of late and am waiting on a pullback. High end rates have stagnated. So I’ve kind of cooled on the group and need to do a little work on it before I have a firm opinion again. Will circle back to you Monday on it.

  195. 195
    zman Says:

    Bill – best trade of the week to you on those shipping warrants. I came very close to biting on that one.

  196. 196
    zman Says:

    Anyone see any news or a broker comment on CLB? Stock up 4% now which in this weak tape seems to spell deal thirty come Monday morning.

  197. 197
    zman Says:

    I should add to 196, aside from the pre-release last night. The beat is good but it’s not that good. Wondering if anyone has broker coverage that indicates a deal is in the making.

  198. 198
    apbd Says:

    Sale, Sale, everything is on sale today.
    apbd

  199. 199
    Dman Says:

    BOP – once again you respond by pointing me to a website. Call me exasperated, but surely you know that science is not conducted on Wikipedia? I want to do this properly or not at all.

    But anyway…

    … having skimmed through it, I see that exactly what I described in #142 has occurred. They have brought in statisticians and it is unclear if they have generated any light or merely heat. This doesn’t surprise me in the least.

    When I look at the graph, I see that the blue curve (Mann et al 1999) starts off “warm”, gets “cooler” in the little ice age and then shoots up in recent times. All of the curves do more-or-less the same thing, although it’s hard to tell with them all mangled together.

    Seems to me they all show a MWP, a little ice age and the current warming. The differences are merely in degree.

    So what’s the issue?

    There seems to be a highly technical and ongoing dispute about exactly what statistical approach is best for analyzing the data.

    That is nothing to do with fraud. It’s just normal science. That’s the way it normally looks. Competing ideas and claims are made. Attempts are made to sort out which (if any) are correct.

    So who is alleging fraud? Bloggers?

    The only thing that looks any different to the normal scientific environment is that a huge number of people outside the field are subjecting it to political agendas.

    Normally, scientific disputes every bit as convoluted and heated as this one are completely ignored by the general public, bloggers and Mr Bastardi.

    Maybe that’s why people think this is different. Do you think that all scientist’s emails are civil and polite? Why would they be? It’s not a lovefest.

  200. 200
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — checking the Rumor Mill on CLB for you… will get back if i dig up anything.

  201. 201
    baylor3217 Says:

    ZMan, is CIGX a potential ZIM play?

  202. 202
    zman Says:

    re 201 – did they strike oil?

  203. 203
    1520sbroad Says:

    #202 – Ha.

  204. 204
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    It was — simply — warmer during the MWP than now. The graph doesn’t show that b/c it’s not the data they want to show. “Taking temps” that far back in time (before we had NOAA) involves examining physical and anecdotal data. Doesn’t growing crops in Greenland (on land that currently sits under 1000s of feet of glacial ice) imply that there were periods of history during the Reign of Man where the planet wasn’t warmer than it is now? (Rhetorical question.)

  205. 205
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Oil is down and nat gas is up. Nice to see that divergence come back together a bit.

  206. 206
    ram Says:

    CIGX is involved in oil too?

  207. 207
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — i know you’re joking… right? πŸ™‚

  208. 208
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Choices: Just read through the ESV Fleet notes. Very neutral at best. Some adds to backlog but shipyard days are up. 1 idle rig. The group does not have any sex appeal right now. Not enough new tenders. These are cash flow stories. NE will have numbers out 4/21 with CC 4/22. I might report but I am going for the Zsite record of ten reports with no follow-up comments. So you have to promise not to respond to any of my comments. πŸ™‚

  209. 209
    ram Says:

    I’m contemplating my second pail of pales. It’s take me a long time to type.

  210. 210
    Jerome Blank Says:

    BEXP holding up nicely right now on daily support…bounced off the 200 period SMA on the 30 min…

  211. 211
    zman Says:

    Thanks Tom – actually I go that way for days on end some times.

  212. 212
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Nobody saying hello today?…

  213. 213
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Jerome — didn’t you call the LOD on some of our faves today? I’ll go vote for ya. Thx!

  214. 214
    zman Says:

    Thanks JB for all the hard chart work.

    WLL’s chart looks interesting to me here, normally I’d have like it to either hold the low from earlier this week or to have filled the gap in the chart at $80 but given the low valuation, I also like seeing the ability to snap back quickly.

  215. 215
    zman Says:

    MCF one of the very few green names on my screen today. Interesting to see TISDZ up again as well.

  216. 216
    Dman Says:

    #204 – OK, so you are asserting that it was actually warmer back in 1000 than it is now.

    But *none* of the curves show that, no matter which analysis they use.

    Which means that your dispute is with the data. Not a good place to be.

    This is where it all gets a bit silly. You are asserting that it is a well known fact that

    T(1000) > T(2000).

    And that a whole bunch of scientists published graphs that contradict that well known fact, including in top journals such as Nature and Science. And not one of the referees pointed out the contradiction?

    I’m sorry, but that is just silly. In those journals, all it takes is one major critical point from a referee and you are out. So on the one hand, you claim that all scientists know the equation above. But somehow none of them notice it when reviewing papers. And the editors who would also know this well-known fact are also prone to forgetting it at crucial times?

    And you further state (“it’s not the data they want to show”) that they are all ignoring data that supports this well known fact?

    If that data exists, why doesn’t somebody put it in a graph?

    The answer to your rhetorical question could well be “no”. Climate is dynamic. The Earth as a whole has suddenly warmed up recently. But it takes decades or centuries for the ice sheets to melt. In other words we are nowhere near an equilibrium state at present. If we ever did reach equilibrium at the current temperature, maybe greenland would look very different. The glaciers *are* melting. So your “static” analysis is simply invalid.

    Show me some hard data that supports the above equation.

  217. 217
    Jerome Blank Says:

    BOP…thank you…unless you believe the bottom is dropping out…seems like a number of good opportunities today…

  218. 218
    Nicky Says:

    Nikkei was down 177 last night. Nikkei futures are down 252. Overdone or taste of what is to come in Asia Sunday night and therefore us again on Monday?

  219. 219
    zman Says:

    re 217 – yep.

  220. 220
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HT — we pierced an important level on spx futs… we should be good to go… higher.

  221. 221
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Talk about a Bad Hair Day — Buffett’s Goldman warrants dropped by almost $1B on today’s lawsuit filing.

  222. 222
    zman Says:

    GS probably made enough $ shorting themselves before the news to pay the fine. All is right with the world. Sorry VTZ πŸ˜‰

  223. 223
    choices Says:

    #208, Thanks, Tom-promise, will not respond-heh.

  224. 224
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #214 Zman…WLL…I agree, very interesting chart…the $80 price corresponds right at lower channel line support, but it looks like buyers came in at the first support zone right at the 20 day daily SMA…holding up nicely…updated the daily…

  225. 225
    zman Says:

    Thanks much JB, don’t go to trouble on my account! Just musing.

    WHX green, lol.

    And my hurricane play, OII, just won’t fall either.

    BOP – got any weekend reading material for me on CIGX?

  226. 226
    1520sbroad Says:

    Z – do you subscribe to the pay portion of that max pain site?

  227. 227
    zman Says:

    SEC knew about Stanford in 1997. Wow. Your tax dollars working hard doing who knows what.

  228. 228
    zman Says:

    Local news watch:

    A key senator on Friday unveiled broad derivatives legislation that would increase transparency to the opaque market, prohibit regulators from bailing out Wall Street firms that engage in risky derivatives transactions and require a large segment of the derivatives market to trade through clearinghouses, which are intermediaries between buyers and sellers that make sure both parties have enough capital. Senate Agriculture Committee Chairwoman Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., introduced the legislation, which is expected to be folded into a bank reform bill approved by the Senate Banking Committee last month. Lincoln’s bill would exempt so-called commercial “end users” of derivatives products, such as manufacturers, airlines and other commercial companies, from having their transactions go through costly clearinghouses.

  229. 229
    baylor3217 Says:

    on a non-energy related note, AAPL just move up $1.50 in about 10 minutes..I bought some April calls here and mulling profit taking now or in the next 60 minutes.

  230. 230
    zman Says:

    re 226: nope, haven’t looked into it.

  231. 231
    baylor3217 Says:

    Are we reaching ZMAN ENERGY BRAIN record post territory for one day?

  232. 232
    1520sbroad Says:

    I was curious how different the readings you get from the “current pain” are to the non-subscriber readings on expiration day… I guess the free option is to wait until 3:59 EST on expiration friday.

  233. 233
    baylor3217 Says:

    Re 227, there were rumors that Stanford, a Baylor University alum, was being courted to build a fantastic stadium on the banks of the Brazos in the heart of Texas before the truth came out.

    I am glad that didn’t come to fruition.

  234. 234
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — just about the last thing i want you thinking about is CIGX. You are too good with all the energy stuff. I don’t want to dilute that.

    All you really need to understand… it’s a suppliment made from tobacco, not a drug. It works on smoking cessation and helps with weight loss and mood swings (proven on people). It could do some other stuff too (supported by non-company-funded research). It has a lot of very smart holders (one of my best friends is the largest holder). It could go to zero. It could go to $25+. And it could do that by the end of this year.

    It’s not that crazy. KOG went from 16c to $4.00 in just over a year… this stuff can happen.

  235. 235
    zman Says:

    re 231. Record is 247 I think.

    Thanks BOP. Ram – see 234, no hydrocarbons at all, its sounds like it may actually cut down on demand for tar, which some people, like WRES actually produce on purpose.

  236. 236
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BINGO! — No tar, no nicotine. All the Fun. None of the guilt.

  237. 237
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    JPMo Credit Trading Desk just took a survey on where the SPX closes. Results and % voted that way.

    down 20 or more (27%)
    down 15-20 (23%)
    down 10-15 (29%)
    down 5-10 (15%)
    down 5 or less (5%)

  238. 238
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    (there were only 4 people who voted 5 or less… )

  239. 239
    ram Says:

    Great, I think I’ll smoke a cigar.

  240. 240
    baylor3217 Says:

    I missed a good BEXP opportunity today. ugh!!

  241. 241
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    i need a smoke too ram; what a day

  242. 242
    zman Says:

    Baylor – you might get it again. I do however expect BEXP to have another 3 wells for press release next week, maybe they hold it for the quarter but I sort of doubt it.

    Trading like watching red paint drying.

  243. 243
    Patipati Says:

    Curious fact per owner of local auto repair shop: all the Toyotas that have had issues were made in the USA — so far at least.

  244. 244
    zman Says:

    ATH down another 5%, new low at 13.80.

  245. 245
    Dman Says:

    NOG green

  246. 246
    Patipati Says:

    BSJ, a question re NS/NSH: do you have an opinion which is better?

  247. 247
    elduque Says:

    thank you, one and all, for all your input
    have a great weekend.

  248. 248
    Patipati Says:

    Just read Adam Storch, former GS exec fro business intelligence unit, recently became COO of the SEC.

  249. 249
    mimster90 Says:

    Zman,

    Have you seen this article?

    This week the U.S. Congress heard testimony supporting a bill that would push to replace diesel with natural gas in heavy vehicles…

    Natural Gas May Be Worse for the Planet than Coal

    http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/energy/25058/

  250. 250
    mimster90 Says:

    A few questions…

    1. How “oily” is KOG?

    2. KWK vs HK. zman, what are your thoughts on these 2 going forward a year or 2?

    3. Why are MLPs so higlhy valued at the moment?

  251. 251
    zman Says:

    Mim – Thanks, will address in the wrap tomorrow.

Leave a Reply

Zman's Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… is is proudly powered by Wordpress
Navigation Theme by GPS Gazette

s2Member®