12
Apr

Monday Morning, 1Q Earnings Eve

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Market Sentiment Watch: Greece got a big helping hand of a bailout over the weekend and equity futures are called higher as the dollar takes a header relative to the Euro. Meanwhile in the States, AA reports tonight to kick of the 1Q10 earnings season.  As I may have mentioned last week, expectations for this earnings season are high and things are likely to get more volatile this week. In energy land, HAL bought Boots and Coots (something I thought might happen after SLB took out Georesources a couple of weeks ago when I wrote that that deal should "put a little sizzle in service names from CLB to WEL." Oh well, can't kiss all the girls. 

 

The Week Ahead:

  • Monday 4/12: Federal budget at 2pm EST
  • Tuesday 4/13: Trade balance, import price index
  • Wednesday 4/14:  EIA Oil Inventory Report, CPI (F=0.1%, core = 0.1%), retail sales (F= 1.3%, ex autos 0.6%), inventories (F= 0.4%), Beige Book,
  • Thursday 4/15: EIA Natural Storage Report, Jobless claims (F= 430K), Empire State Index, Industrial Production (F=0.8%), Philly Fed (F= 20.0), Home builders index (F=17),
  • Friday 4/16: Housing starts (F= 610K), Consumer Sentiment (F= 75.0)
  • Saturday 4/17: Equity option expiry for April

In Today's Post:

  • Holdings Watch
  • Commodity  Watch
  • Stuff We Care About Today - IPAA Watch for Monday, Max Pain, Other Stuff (RRC, GDP, TAT)
  • Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio, formerly the $10KP II):

  • $16,200
  • 64% Cash
  • Positions are updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT.

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $16,900
  • 87% Cash
  • Positions are updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page.

Commodity  Watch:

Crude oil was essentially unchanged last week, closing at $84.92. The 12 month crude strip is now trading at $87.82.  This morning crude off slightly.

  • OPEC Watch: Iranian tankers now at 9 storing the country's high sulfur crude.

Natural gas was also unchanged last week ending at $4.07. The front month contract looks like this and I don't expect much in the way of a bounce soon as the weather is being incredibly Spring like over a broad swath of the country spawning little in the way of heating or cooling demand.  The 12 month strip is now trading at $4.81. This morning gas is trading flat.

Stuff We Care About Today

IPAA Meeting- See the full schedule here.

Monday Presentations We Care About: (All times EST)

ROSE: 8:45 - Worth a listen as I own stock in the ZLT but probably not a lot of new news here as they just released an operational update last week. Today's presentation shows they bumped their Niobrara acreage position by 10% to 100,000 acres in the last 2 months.

NOG: 9:10 - I don't own it at present but continue to view this as one of the little engines that could amongst the Bakken players. Watch for more big wells (non-operated to be sure) on the 1Q call and look for working interests on new wells to slowly slide north as the year progresses.

  • Operations update today:
    • 2010 plan moves from 15 net wells to 18 net wells as the rig count in the play hits an all time high and they will participate in more wells than previously expected.
    • 1Q10 production was 125,000 BOE vs 114,000 BOe in 4Q09
    • 1Q10 revenue was $8.4 mm, the Street is at $11 mm
    • 1Q10 EPS are expected to be $0.03, the Street is at $0.075.
    • Company believes it's achieving payout in about 4 months, and shows longer term average IPs in its pr today, including its big Stallion well at a very respectable average of 1,153 BOEpd after 57 days of production.


SFY 10:00 - Looking for an Eagle Ford Shale progress update.

WLL 10:30 - Look for an update of Lewis & Clarke prospect area activity. I hold calls in the ZCAT and the common in the ZLT.

CPE 10:55 - One I missed after joking with Reef about the name being the next big winner. Boy howdy. Looking to get updated and see if this name doesn't fall back to earth


MCF 11:45 - Should not be anything earth shattering today but a number of stock moving events loom on the horizon - See Catalyst list

ATPG 1:35 -  Just catching up.

LINN  2:00 - Just keeping up to date following their two recent acquisitions. I continue to hold this one in the ZLT.


PETD 2:50 - Niobara anyone? This is one of the little names being bandied about as a potential next hot player in the next hot oil shale play.

BEXP 5:00 - Looking for an upward revision to out quarter guidance; also another set of wells expected this week or next.

 

Names Presenting Tomorrow that I care about: SSN (expecting an operations update as soon as this evening), XEC, PXD, PQ, EXXI, KOG, HK, TAT, CRZO.

 

Max Pain- just for my holdings and a few other popular stocks around the site

 

Other Stuff:

  • GDP - Boldly Going Where Others Have Gone Before. GDP buys into Eagle Ford Shale (oil window) and adds to Haynesville position, plans to spud an Eagle Ford Shale well in 2Q. Everyone wants to get oily and GDP would like to invoke a short squeeze. I don't think this news is going to accomplish that.
  • RRC - Marcellus Update - longer laterals resulting in larger EURs in the Marcellus, ups reserve estimate from a range of 3 to 4 Bcfe per well to 4 to 5 Bcfe per well or total reserve potential goes to a range of 14 to 19 Tcfe vs their TEV of $9.7 B.
  • TAT - Enters into agreement with the Turkish National oil co. to explore for unconventional resources, sounds like shale gas as they are talking about the Thrace Basin.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • ACI upped to Buy at Citi
  • PCX upped to Hold at Citi
  • WLL - price target upped from $80 to $103 at CK Cooper.

Interesting Reading Watch:

167 Responses to “Monday Morning, 1Q Earnings Eve”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Anyone have a link to the actual presentation audio from IPAA. I was unable to get sound on the ROSE call, can’t find the NOG call. Ugh.

  2. 2
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Good morning. Credit Markets continue to improve for those who can borrow. And the ones most likely to borrow are corporations and private equity groups. There is just a LACK of available bonds to satisfy investor appetite right now. Wall Street has never been known to leave 20-dollar-bills on the sidewalk. So, expect to see deals done for borrowers with worth causes.

    Bottom line = debt available and relatively cheap. Stock market still skeptical. THIS is the Best of All Possible Words for Aquirerors. If investors are reluctant to buy stocks, companies and PEs will. Expect to see more of this….

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dyncorp-going-private-in-15-billion-deal-2010-04-12?siteid=yhoof2

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Thanks much BOP, any HT/TT color?

  4. 4
    bill Says:

    atpg new slides

    not much new..up premarket

  5. 5
    bill Says:

    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NDAwNDl8Q2hpbGRJRD0tMXxUeXBlPTM=&t=1

  6. 6
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    RRI and MIR announced they are merging today… another Stock Market Friendly Data Point.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    I won’t be chasing GDP on their “me too” action in the EFS.

  8. 8
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TechTrader is 55/45 LONG for today’s best odds day trade.

    HeadTrader is back to “buy the dips until proven wrong.”

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Re stock market friendly data points, HAL buying WEL another one, they think they can’t wait any longer to bargain hunt vs SLB’s string of buys of late. I’m surprised names like CLB are not yet gone.

  10. 10
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GDP… loving the converts. Getting paid to wait = not a bad way to invest a part of your portfolio.

    BEXP up in pre…

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    BEXP – presenting tonight after the close, new presentation not yet available. Stock getting marked up pre market.

  12. 12
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    SSN up in pre- too. Awesome Possum Trade!

  13. 13
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #4 ATPG…you can see on the 30 min chart posted yesterday that a $19.65 open would break out above triangle resistance…I was looking for a pullback to about $19.20 before retesting resistance but it looks like it may run without me…right now, overall ATPG has a great technical setup…

    Anyone have any fundamental thoughts on MPET, it looks like its staging for a triangle breakout….

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP. Possum? Not Phoenix?

  15. 15
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Sinopec buying into SynCrude. More Chinese long-term thinking about locking up long-term energy supplies… been expecting to see this. Think we see more.

  16. 16
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: With Floyd @ IPAA 4/13 do you expect alot of me too from his slides? New board guy, very active call trading on Friday. Any of these might wake up HK a little more?

  17. 17
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Sinopec Said to Plan Purchase of ConocoPhillips Syncrude Stake
    2010-04-12 13:27:11.594 GMT

    By Cathy Chan and Ryan Woo
    April 12 (Bloomberg) — China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Asia’s biggest refiner, plans to buy ConocoPhillips’s stake in oil-sands producer Syncrude Canada Ltd., a person familiar with the matter said.
    Sinopec may pay about $4 billion for the stake, according to the person, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. An announcement may come as soon as today, the person said.
    John Roper, a spokesman for Houston-based ConocoPhillips, declined to immediately comment. A spokesman for Sinopec wasn’t immediately available to comment after regular business hours.
    ConocoPhillips, which holds a stake of about 9 percent in unlisted Syncrude, said in October it planned to sell $10 billion of assets over two years to cut debt.

  18. 18
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TPH out with a note saying they expected the MIR/RRI merger… thinking there is 100% to the combined entity….

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    Tom – HK was in the plays arguable 1st or 2nd. Probably 2nd there in the Haynesville and EFS and broke both of them to the market. I think the next thing that moves them is getting deals 2 and 3 done and maybe getting more recognition of Black Hawk’s oil potential in the EFS.

  20. 20
    bill Says:

    Canada more investor friendly for china’s money than us is

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    No large cap leadership in the group this morning, very light opening volumes.

    EOG starting a second day of profit taking.

    WLL getting a small boost from CK Cooper’s target boost. Still cheapest name in Bakken.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    CLNE news re LA metro bus fleet, stock off, I would think unrelated, maybe I downgrade I don’t have access to.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    SFY presentation in 20 minutes, stock getting a warm reception this am, worth a listen, they are only on the west side of the EFS to my knowledge.

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    TAT also attempting a breakout today, IPAA tomorrow.

  25. 25
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: CLNE Negative story in Barron’s

  26. 26
    bill Says:

    hnr slides

    http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/HNR/890114614x0x364302/000630a5-8dab-478d-a4cb-eb2ace0da3df/Harvest%20Natural%20Resources%20IPAA%20Oil%20and%20Gas%20Investment%20Symposium.pdf

    do you know anything about unita basin

    nfx dvn hnr…in area

  27. 27
    Gtinvest Says:

    Clne down on negative aricle in barron’s :http://www.reuters.com/article/idAFN1115932120100411?rpc=44

  28. 28
    bill Says:

    hnr talking up monmument butte wells and the name is on an upsurge

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Nicky – got levels?

    Bill – Uinta, pronounced YouWinTA, yes, NFX is big there, good economics, some oil waxy, what you want to know?

  30. 30
    isleworth Says:

    Barron’s had article saying CLNE overvalued……

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    Thanks re CLNE.

    SFY presentation in 5 min.

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    TAT breakout achieved, thoughts on the chart JB?

  33. 33
    bill Says:

    29-hnr moved into the area.. this is the company thats in venezula

    ive been out a while and the stock has been moving ever since they went into unita

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    SFY IPAA Presentation

    4 core areas, oilier than not, getting attention now for that and for the EFS which could make them oilier. Name is still cheap trading:

    TEV/EBITDA
    2010: 5.3x
    2011: 4.1x

    P/CFPS
    2010: 4.6x
    2011: 3.5x

    This is a name where I have to get past some past managerial snafu to buy it. Mulling, probably not today but thinking about it.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    SFY – > 500 Eagle Ford potential locations. This is largely their old AWP field, south Texas, west side of the play. No change in 75,000 acres in the play in this presentation.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    SFY – couple of more EFS wells to announce in early May on the earnings call. Sounds like oil from north McMullen county.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    WLL presents next, stock walking higher into that.

  38. 38
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #32 TAT…holding, breakout looks good, new entries on any pullback to support at $3.75…

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    Thanks JB, will vote again today.

  40. 40
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #39, Zman, thank you…

  41. 41
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    JB — voted this weekend. Thank you for your constant and timely updates!

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    WLL to start at the half hour:

    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=147759&p=irol-presentations

    60 fresh slides

  43. 43
    kiaora Says:

    JB—ditto

  44. 44
    italyinvestor Says:

    Z – Looked at the catalyst list and didn’t see anything for SD. Any chance to descud the Aprils?

  45. 45
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #41, BOP, thank you…

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    Italy – doubtful.

  47. 47
    bill Says:

    3 mcf insiders sold last week including cfo

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Reef- see CPE, wow, that’s one that got away.

  49. 49
    bill Says:

    atpg above 20..appears to be breaking out

  50. 50
    Nicky Says:

    Good morning everyone.

    Levels:

    Resistance at 1197- 99, then 1200, 1204,1208.

    Looking at the cycles and the wave count I expect the strength we are seeing to get us up to somewhere between 1198 – 1204 which will complete wave i, then ii down to 1181 – 87. ii should be complete by early Wednesday, then up in the latter part of the week for iii. Once we see where i and ii end I will start to give projections for wave iii but right now for me this rally is shaping up to go anywhere between 1220 and 1260 and will take us towards the end of the month.

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    Nicky – thanks and wowsers.

    Bill – have not looked at ATPG slides yet, anything of note?

  52. 52
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: T Boone talking to the boys in DC Wed 4/14 to get them to wake up re HR1835 Nat Gas Act. I assume same ole same ole. No effect on NG prices or E&P names.

  53. 53
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #43 Kiaora…thanks much..

  54. 54
    bill Says:

    i didnt see anything new but oil is now flowing at telemark

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    WLL – not a lot new in the slides, nothing new on Lewis & Clark position, should have a comment about their development program timing during the presentation. Nothing new on the EOR programs. Looks like some new wells in the traditional Sanish area Bakken play, nothing out of line.

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    SSN running 12+% now, expecting ops update tonight or tomorrow, with them speaking IPAA tomorrow.

    WLL call started

  57. 57
    VTZ Says:

    Re 20: and the Chinese are buying longterm supply by buying oil sands. It’s like a guaranteed supply contract for 20+ years instead of the ole’ drilling treadmill.

    Same reason for their ATH share. I think it’s obvious where the Chinese are looking for assets.

    I’m somewhat surprised that Conoco is selling their stake to be honest.

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    Tom – he’s worth watching but unless I see it get tied to the Cap and Trade stuff I don’t see it happening. And then if that’s the case, well, then I’d have to get puts on this overheated coal space and go long more straight natural gas plays like SWN, RRC.

  59. 59
    Nicky Says:

    Iran showing off all their new Nuke missles in a parade…saying ‘We will crush America under our feet’.

  60. 60
    tomdavis12 Says:

    VTZ: CSFB upgraded GG if you have an interest

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    EOG reversed, inching higher. Still nothing new so far out of WLL.

  62. 62
    reefguy Says:

    cpe- dj type exposure. I hesitated and missed

  63. 63
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP: MMR if they set a cement plug @ 22,000ft, does that mean anything negative for the deeper zones @ DJ. Thanks.

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    Tom – unrelated wells. That’s BB Hill.

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    BEXP – news slides just hit, looking through now.

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    BEXP oil volumes guidance goes from:

    up 100% from 2009

    to

    up 125% from 2009

    that’s a pretty good clip for adding the 5 rigs, still don’t see where all the capex bump goes.

    they put 2011 oil growth at 100% over 2010, that’s pretty big.

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    BEXP – lists the Rogney 17-8 #1 H well as drilling, this is the east Montana Bakken well offsetting (about a section away from) EOG’s Carret well.

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    Reef – Re CPE. Me too. If I were them I’d do an offering up here. Presentation starting now.

  69. 69
    bill Says:

    59

    >We will crush America under our feet’.

    and no one is paying attention

    this is 1941 all over again

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    BEXP presentation:

    http://www.bexp3d.com/IR_pres.pdf

    slide 13. See the new Sorenson well cleaning up. That’s Bo, not BOE. EOG had criticized them openly for using 24 hour peak IP. Those rates are daily averages. That’s a fat rate.

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    Bill – except it’s centrifuges and not carriers.

  72. 72
    cargocult Says:

    Any thoughts as to how this WEL buy for HAL will effect the price of HAL short term?

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    Cargo – neutral to positive. Not a big bite for them.

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    BEXP woke up as soon as that pr hit.

    Looks like another week or so and we get three more Rough Rider wells.

  75. 75
    elijahwc Says:

    On the wires:

    GEOI GeoResources provides an operations update, acquired approximately 71,000 gross (47,000 net) leasehold acres (17.55 +0.11)

    Co has acquired ~71,000 gross (47,000 net) leasehold acres and intends to develop the acreage with two industry partners. The co retained a 47.5% working interest (“WI”), representing approximately 22,300 net acres and is the operator of the project. Co states “We plan to drill at least three horizontal wells in the Middle Bakken Formation prior to year end.” Recent activity in Williams County has confirmed commercial production in the Middle Bakken Formation, which is a primary objective for the joint venture. Secondary objectives include the Three Forks, Madison and the Red River Formations. In our non-operated joint venture, the co holds a 10% – 18% WI in ~106,000 gross (13,900 net) leasehold acres. To date, the co has participated in 49 wells drilled by its joint venture operator and has realized a 100% success rate. In addition, the co owns minor working interests in more than 160 wells within the Bakken/Three Forks play. Our joint venture continues to acquire acreage in this expanding play and is currently running five drilling rigs continuously.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    That implies they bought in Williams but doesn’t state it outright unless I misread it. That would be very pricey.

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    About to listen to PHX, not one of my names but sort of interesting.

  78. 78
    Dman Says:

    #59 – Nicky, the whole Iranian thing gets tiresome and will remain so until a war starts. But all of the war scenarios involve the US attacking Iran, not the other way around.

    So at the risk of being tiresome, I have to ask you “are you actually scared of the A-man?” Do you actually believe his absurd threats? Iran has no capacity to attack the US.

    On the other hand, when Hillary threatens to “annihilate” Iran, this is a perfectly credible threat. All she has to do is persuade the O-man to push the button. Same goes with the regular threats by Israel to launch nuclear first strikes against Iran. These are credible threats. They have the nukes and the delivery systems in place. They can vaporize Iran any time they want.

    I could understand it if the Iranians were scared. I could also understand if they hid this with puffed up absurdist bravado.

    Hitler was scary. Stalin was scary. The A-man is a joke. You’re supposed to laugh at jokes, not hide under the bed.

    For reference, here is what the Israeli Defense Minister said recently:

    “I don’t think the Iranians, even if they got the bomb, [would] drop it in the neighborhood,” Barak said. “They fully understand what might follow. They are radical but not totally crazy. They have a quite sophisticated decision-making process, and they understand reality.”

    http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=169809

    It reminds me of when a former head of one of the Israeli security services was asked his views on the Iraqi threat. He replied that he was more concerned about traffic accidents in Israel. And it’s true: they do have a lot of accidents. Whereas Iraq posed no threat at all to them.

    Israel is concerned about Iran as a strategic competitor, not as an actual nuclear threat.

    But for the US, Iran is neither a nuclear threat nor a strategic competitor. So that once more raises the question: just what is all this hysteria actually about?

    This is not to say there will be no war. A lot of smart people, such as Marc Faber, say there *will* be a war. But again the only scenarios that are ever discussed involve the US starting that war.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    Nevermind re PHX, not interested.

  80. 80
    bill Says:

    mcf up at 1145

    http://webcastingplayer.corporate-ir.net/player/PlayerHost.aspx?EventId=2726407&StreamId=1461396&TIK={B6ADF634-171D-44DC-97F7-2EEBF17AD1AF}&RGS=1

  81. 81
    bill Says:

    77,79 lol what happened

  82. 82
    bill Says:

    >On the other hand, when Hillary threatens to “annihilate” Iran, this is a perfectly credible threat. All she has to do is persuade the O-man to push the button

    She would have a better chance of talking the O-man into a sex change operation

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Bill – thought it was a different company, then realized it was those guys. Zzzzz.

  84. 84
    reefguy Says:

    79- good decision!

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    Market looks pinned. I’m sure it’s not yet but it sure looks like summer trading or pinned trading.

    Bill – I’ll listen to MCF, good stuff potential in May, always worth the lesson in who your real partner is in all deals, the Feds.

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    http://webcastingplayer.corporate-ir.net/player/PlayerHost.aspx?EventId=2726407&StreamId=1461396&TIK={7238670B-EE07-4B4F-ACDA-F3F3D3B5C96C}&RGS=1

    slide 4

  87. 87
    bill Says:

    mcf no new slides

    he makes some interesting points on why he likes gom on page 22

    One landowner- mms
    Dont have to deal with nimby’s
    lots of infrastructure in place

  88. 88
    choices Says:

    #78-excellent points!

    With the exception of WWII and possibly Korea, all of the US wars have been about domestic politics and not about national security threats-I know I need to shut up as I vowed I would not engage in ANY political discussions on this board but it is tiresome when the neo-cons constantly bang the war drum while not a one of them have ever heard a shot fired in anger. Now they are braying about the START nuclear treaty just signed in Prague, something that Reagan actively pursued.

  89. 89
    bill Says:

    88 i swore id never respond to your posts

    you are out of touch my good friend..

    you remind me of that guy that went to iraq with a pro_iraqi view to film their cause against us oppresion and got his head chopped off..

    when he felt the blade against his throat, in that instant, he realized the neo cons were right

  90. 90
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE 88 Choices — I RESENT your post!!! I am a conservative and I actually have been in combat.

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    IPAA taking a break for lunch. Stocks just drifting, for the most part green. Going to circle back and listen to ROSE and NOG if I can get them to play, both off a little today. The NOG pre announcement looked like a big miss to me, surprised that didn’t get dropped hard.

  92. 92
    reefguy Says:

    Team-Who is the purest Eagleford player?

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Reef – EOG has to have the biggest oil window acreage position. 400K acres, over 80% on the north side in oil.

    HK probably has the biggest leverage to the play though.

    CHK is said to be “large” there

    HK at 225K acres

    PXD at 310K across length of play

    ROSE at 52K

    SFY at 75K

    SM at 225K – not sure they are hitting it that hard yet.

    PQ has 26K

    CXPO has 2.8K acres

    APC has about 350K acres

  94. 94
    reefguy Says:

    Rose??

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    Reef – yep, 61K acres, just revised higher, listening to their presentation now. Ranges from dry gas to condensate window. 17K acres in the oil window, haven’t release counties on that area.

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    EOG – Probably going to punt the May EOG calls from the ZIM today as that one has priced in the analyst meeting now. I think the shares, all other things being equal, drift higher from here, but the ZIM is meant to take advantage of quick mis pricings in the market and it has done that.

  97. 97
    Dman Says:

    bsj – choices was referring to *neocons*, which are a particular subgroup. So far as I know, the only member of the neocon camp who served was Rumsfeld. Although I’m unclear if he really is/was a neocon.

    bill #82 you cracked me up with that. Made me think of things that no-one should have to think of.

    But I didn’t mention Iran to start a bunfight. The last time crude got an Iran premium, in 2008, it turned out to be the top.

    At the moment, none of the buffoonery between Iran, the US and Israel seems to cause even a ripple in the crude pits. I interpret this to mean that the market doesn’t believe any of the players means business *for the moment*.

    That could change, but until I see *some* reaction to these news items in crude, I find it difficult to take it seriously.

    Some other geopolitical news that I *am* worrying about:

    There has been some open talk in China that the leadership’s iron-fist approach to stifling dissent isn’t working and the number of “dissent-events”, such as workers riots, is spiking dramatically. The open discussion of this is very unusual and it does make me wonder how long China will hold up. But I really don’t have much hard info to go on. Still looking.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    JB – thanks for those EOG comments, don’t think you get the pullback without a market event. May add to the ZCAT closer to earnings, will punt from ZIM today.

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    … and there it went

    ZTRADE – ZIM – EOG

    Sold the 5 remaining EOG May $105 calls for $5.10, up 88% since entry last Wednesday. I’m likely to buy into this name again before earnings in the ZCAT for a couple of potentially catalytic items.

  100. 100
    zman Says:

    ZIM at $17,309, 100% cash. I do own some higher strike DVN calls that will die worthless but they aren’t in the value there.

  101. 101
    ilikericky Says:

    To all the brainy people here on this site:Has anyone heard of the Bolero Field or the Cheroke and Atokee shale areas,supposed to be close to Colorado.I am really interested in the oil bearing potential of this area.Relates to a question I asked regarding the Jolly Range project.This is additional information I found.Where I come from we have very cold weather and its supposed to be spring,no oil and very little gas left.

  102. 102
    zman Says:

    Re 101 – are you looking at Nighthawk?

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    See at right under their quick links:
    http://www.nighthawkenergy.net/

  104. 104
    ilikericky Says:

    ZMAN yes and to get an idea of the other players.The potential reserves are over 1 billion barrels of oil.

  105. 105
    ilikericky Says:

    Zman are you familiar with this area?

  106. 106
    RMD Says:

    101 CHK has talked about the Atoka and I think the Cheroke.

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    re 105 – only on the periphery of my knowledge. These plays are getting more attention as the next Bakken, like the Niobrara. I don’t know the OOIP thoughts or the porosity / perm. Will have a look.

    Market just treading water pre AA. There’s also quite a bit of eco data out later in the week.

  108. 108
    ilikericky Says:

    RE-106 Thanks,will look at CHK site.

  109. 109
    RMD Says:

    MCF comment that most gets my attention was service co.s are consolidating, E&P co.s are proliferating. I guess I have to pay more att’n to the service sectors.
    RIG comment from folks in Houston: their ests on 1Q10 are $.35 under St. est of $2.20.

  110. 110
    zman Says:

    ATPG presentation refusing to load for me. Let me know if you hear anything new Bill.

  111. 111
    RMD Says:

    Goldman commodities research piece: thinks nat gas is unsustainably low and supply/demand will tighten by 5.3bcf/d through coal-gas switching, declining LNG imports, and lower domestic production.

  112. 112
    Dman Says:

    RMD – did they say why LNG would decline? Just a pricing issue relative to other markets?

  113. 113
    1520sbroad Says:

    Z – I didn’t listen to the SWN presentation this morning at IPAA but did roll thru their new April presentation at http://www.swn.com. It may have been up there last week but today was the first time i looked at it. Slide #10 provides some New Brunswick, CA overview.

  114. 114
    zman Says:

    Dman – almost has to be given the capacity roll out.

    1520, thanks will go look.

    For those of you trolling for Niobrara players, here’s a list of permits and spuds that was posted last Friday.

    http://pdf_gallery.s3.amazonaws.com/original_NiobraraActivity.pdf

  115. 115
    1520sbroad Says:

    #114 – i’m listenting to the swn presentation now – i’ll send along any interesting tidbits

  116. 116
    zman Says:

    Thanks again Isle but it looks like they are keeping it pretty basic at the moment. Didn’t cite a preference for oil vs gas (the area has produced a limited amount of both) nor did they talk time-line at least in the printed material. Worth watching.

  117. 117
    RMD Says:

    Dman 112, yes, pricing vs. other markets.

  118. 118
    pwdrhound Says:

    Thoughts on MMR? I missed my opportunity last week to exit (was away from my cmputer and my phone browser had a hard time with my brokers option trading interface…. time for a new phone. Five days to expiration, still expecting news?

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    RJ downgrades ROSE to mkt perf.

  120. 120
    zman Says:

    … and ups UPL to outperform.

  121. 121
    zman Says:

    Re 118. Could be any day now, been that way for weeks. Their Blueberry Hill is no longer drilling and they like to group well news together so we could get a little DJ update with that. Or they could just hold it for earnings. They don’t speak at IPAA but EXXI does tomorrow so there could be some play there tomorrow.

  122. 122
    zman Says:

    LINE call about to start.

    So far this IPAA has had very little new information in it. That should change with some of the smaller players tomorrow.

  123. 123
    1520sbroad Says:

    SWN in New Brunswick, Canada – spending roughly $8mil this year mainly for low level aerial gravity work.

    $25 mil next year for seismic over the coming winter. One well included in initial $45 mil.

    To hold 32 blocks of acreage – need 32 wells to hold 2.5 million acres.

    Did prelim work by merging 3 magnetic databases to size up the field.

  124. 124
    zman Says:

    Thanks 1520, figured slow going, that’s pretty slow but it’s a huge area.

  125. 125
    1520sbroad Says:

    Nothing else noteworthy on the New Brunswick project. 2.5 million acres is 4 times the size of their Fayetteville Shale acreage. They did mention that they didn’t want to publicize this project but were required to by the bid process that they were involved in.

  126. 126
    reefguy Says:

    103-looks scary

  127. 127
    Dman Says:

    Z – #114 do you mean new LNG production capacity in the ME?

  128. 128
    zman Says:

    Dman – there, Russia, Asia in general over the next 24 to 36 months.

  129. 129
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BP: Good call on NFX today.

  130. 130
    Dman Says:

    #128 I wonder what China is doing to increase their import capacity. With coal prices soaring, a glut of LNG would suit them if they can build the capacity fast enough. And if anyone can do it fast, it would be them.

  131. 131
    zman Says:

    LINE presentation = keeping on keeping on. Nothing new. I continue to hold.

    PETD in 20 minutes.

  132. 132
    zman Says:

    PETD presentation:

    Slide 19
    http://www.petd.com/presentations/2010%2004%2012%20IPAA-OGIS%20NY-Final%20%5BRead-Only%5D.pdf

    show EOG permits not that far away

  133. 133
    elijahwc Says:

    APA has agreed to acquire Devon Energy Corporation’s oil and gas assets on the Gulf of Mexico Shelf for $1.05 bln. That’s better than the 750m discussed last week

  134. 134
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the headsup Eli …. all of their monetizations have come in high and still the stock won’t move.

  135. 135
    zman Says:

    SSN – up 10% now. I continue to hold it in the ZLT having sold my ZIM shares back at $0.70 on the initial Bakken news. I reiterate that I’m not falling in love here. We should get news tonight or tomorrow and I’m keeping in mind that it could be a BTRSTN type event.

  136. 136
    zman Says:

    ATH – down another 5.7%, do I have that right? Can’t get that ticker to quote on my main market watch.

  137. 137
    kaman Says:

    I like BEXP as stock, but respect the gravitational pull of max pain during options expir’n week…holding a few cheap 17.50 puts since last week…

  138. 138
    VTZ Says:

    14.77 down from ipo at 18.

  139. 139
    zman Says:

    Hear ya K, often trades like a different during this week of the month.

  140. 140
    VTZ Says:

    Volume is really light compared to the Thurs/Fri trading.

  141. 141
    zman Says:

    Thanks V, that’s what I’m showing, interesting.

  142. 142
    VTZ Says:

    I guess those underwriters arent buying the overallotment :). They must not have done a very good job marketing.

  143. 143
    elijahwc Says:

    From the woulda coulda shouha dept:

    Last week I gazed in awe at the run in CQP this year and began to reflect on selling it last Friday. Didn’t….my bad as it is now trading volume down 15% from the very recent high of 19.

    This JPM deal at the end of March with parent LPG http://www.reuters.com/article/idAFN0113584820100407?rpc=44 turned the thought process to keeping it especially given the yield they reaffirmed earlier.

    Obviously the others guys research is better than mine.

    Anybody in touch with anything here????

  144. 144
    elijahwc Says:

    LNG not LPG above

  145. 145
    ram Says:

    But the rumor, sell the news – I just figured out BTRSTN – I feel better now.

  146. 146
    Dman Says:

    #145 I was going to ask

  147. 147
    Dman Says:

    Z – any color on NOG?

  148. 148
    zman Says:

    Re NOG – haven’t listened to the presentation yet. Their prelim #s were way low to the Street. Looked over pr this morning, nothing really to add to my comments from earlier. I don’t own it right now.

  149. 149
    RMD Says:

    Madison Wms new hire from UBS:
    Andrew Coleman has significant experience covering exploration and production and oilfield service companies. Prior to joining Madison Williams, Mr. Coleman was a director in the energy research group at UBS. In Institutional Investor’s 2008 All-America Research Survey, he was ranked for the Exploration & Production category and received honorable mention for Oilfield Services.

  150. 150
    zman Says:

    BEXP call an hour after the close.

    AA numbers after the close.

    Lots of the small names at IPAA tomorrow, KOG, SSN, TAT, CXPO, etc, HK does the lunch.

  151. 151
    Jerome Blank Says:

    SSN….a of now, holding lower intraday support into the close…30 min updated

  152. 152
    zman Says:

    beerthirty

  153. 153
    jat Says:

    What are SFY’s past managerial snafus?

  154. 154
    Jerome Blank Says:

    TAT…if you check out the chart…TAT closed right on the inner trendline, at the 100 period on the 30 min…I would have liked to see it hold at topside trendline support, but TAT is still very technically sound here within the confines of the intraday ascending triangle…I could have done without the “shooting star” close on the daily, so if you’re holding shorter term, a break below $3.60 could suggest some additional short term downside…TAT could be reacting here to P&F trendline resistance, although there is not much data to work with…

  155. 155
    zman Says:

    Jat – chiefly, the whole New Zealand expedition and missing production targets from time to time.

    JB – thanks.

  156. 156
    zman Says:

    AA not exactly getting clubbed after earnings despite light revenues.

    BEXP’s IPAA in 15 minutes.

  157. 157
    zman Says:

    TSO curtailing ops at Anacortes post fire, unknown how long. Another supporting factor for gasoline at present.

  158. 158
    choices Says:

    #90-bsj-no offense was meant to you and other conservative combat veterans-the neo-cons are a far different species. I do not believe that most combat veterans (I include mayself here) or the current military leadership believe that a military solution is the option of choice. It “usually” is regarded as the option of last resort.

    Back to finishing my taxes-I will endeavor not to “pollute” this excellent energy board with further political comments.

    Thanks, JB, for your work-voted.

  159. 159
    jat Says:

    Whisper for AA was far lower

  160. 160
    md Says:

    vtz or anyone
    How is ATH – CA at this level

  161. 161
    VTZ Says:

    RE ATH – I’ve been discussing with numerous people at work as of late.

    I think people are having a rough time valuing it due to the put/call options, the lengthy development timelines, and the unstable capital costs of the last few years.

    It’s hard to argue that they don’t have a great assets, but it’s also hard to argue that there is any urgency to buy the stock.

    I will buy some, but I’m waiting to see how it trades.

    I would like to work there though, so that says something about their opportunities.

  162. 162
    VTZ Says:

    http://www.sedar.com/search/search_form_pc_en.htm

    Athabasca Oil Sands long form prospectus available there.

  163. 163
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #158 choices..thank you

    Updated TAT adding a 30 min chart…SSN 30 min updated…

    AEZ and ATPG 30 min chart perspective added tonight…BEXP 30 min updated…

    KOG 30 min chart updated…KOG looks like it may be staging to make another move higher…

    UPL printed a new P&F “quad top” buy signal…added a new UPL 30 min…very interesting chart…

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  164. 164
    zman Says:

    JB thank, actually thinking about taking protective puts in KOG soon.

    SSN out with another ops update, preliminary pre clean up rate on their Bakken well, should have another update within 24 hours.

  165. 165
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BedTime Market Strategist

    No Taketh, So No Giveth.

    The S&P 500 traded in a tight 38 basis point range on average volume as investors prepped for earnings season. There was also some MidCap merger activity, as well as other companies placing themselves on the block. The big macro news was yesterday’s announcement of the latest version of the EU-IMF aid package to Greece. As the latest chapter in the Hellenic drama unfolded over the past few weeks, the events did not exercise any influence on the U.S. Equity Market. Therefore, it should be little or no surprise that the U.S. received no benefit from the announcement. The EU has chosen to keep the IMF in the mix on the other decision to make available €45 billion of 3 year funds at 5%, which is almost 2%-2.5% below the level where Greek 3 year yields were Thursday and Friday. As a result, the previously stated policy of “no subsidy” has been replaced by one straight out of the Bernanke Fed’s playbook. Lend money at rates that are attractive during times of crisis but highly unattractive during times of stability. As such, the influence speculators will have upon Greek funding is reduced, but also 5% 3 year paper is not an exposure Greece will want to keep on the books for too long should credit markets ease. The plan still lacks details and an implementation mechanism, but clarity on the most important factors, amount and rate, has been provided. The plan calls for €30 Billion from EU members and €15 Billion from the IMF. At this point, enough funds have been committed to get Greece through the current year.

    The problem with IMF involvement and the entire manner in which this situation has been handled is that investors are looking for EU leadership to establish a clear framework as to how the Club Med deficit problems will be addressed. Simply put, investors prefer a strategy as opposed to ad-hoc reactionary policy similar to what prevailed in the United State in the fall of 2008. Ad hoc responses are the result of policy makers chasing the market. As most every investor who has been around for the past decade can attest markets are often subject to extended bouts of inefficiency in both directions. Policy makers need to exhibit that they have the confidence and clout to navigate a volatile situation to establish the path out of the crisis, which will then eventually lead to the desired level of stability. This response has been reactionary and will likely solve Greece (at least for now), but still leaves the door open for a new ad hoc response should another debt laden EU nation come under pressure.

  166. 166
    West Says:

    JB, thanks for the great charts. I try and vote everyday and appreciate all your hard work. I actively trade many of these names and find it very helpful in establishing entry and exit points and confirmation of personal analysis. THANKS

  167. 167
    Jerome Blank Says:

    West…thanks very much for the votes and the comments…I appreciate it…

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