Wrap – Week Ended 4/09/10

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People Say The Nicest Things Watch:

Just finished my first quarter here on ZEB. I would like to thank everyone. This is a great site. Although I’m ultra conservative and small time, plus I’ve missed some of the best trades, I’m up about $23k this Q on stocks I never would have heard of if not for ZEB.  So $189 plus risking some capital has turned out very well.  ~ Rob B

Thanks again Rob, glad it's working for you!

Holdings Watch:

ZCAT: (Zman Catalyst Driven portfolio - this one plays in anticipation of events)

  • $16,200
  • 64% Cash
  • Closed trades this last week:
    • SWN – Sold half of my April $41 calls for $2.30, up 175% since entry last Monday.
    • SWN – Sold the rest of the April $41 calls for $1.65, up 97%, with the stock at $42.
    • HK – sold the April $20 calls for $2, up 105%, with the stock at $21.93.
    • Sold half of my MMR April $16 calls for $1.30, up 116% since entry yesterday.

ZIM: (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio - this one plays news generally after it has been released) 

  • $16,900
  • 87% Cash

We had three plays that were noteworthy last week in addition to the close trades above:

EOG - We played this in the ZCAT in anticipation of strong news from the company's analyst day with April $100 calls. EOG did not disappoint. After seeing the slides and before the stock had run much we added two sets of calls in the ZIM.

Closed trades off this play:

  • ZCAT - Sold half (5) of the EOG April $100 calls taken Tuesday for $5.00, up 219%, with the stock just over $104.
  • ZCAT - Sold the remaining (5) EOG April $100 Calls taken before the analyst day for $6.31, up 302%.
  • ZIM -  Sold half (20) of the EOG April $110 Calls for $1.15, up 271% since yesterday’s entry
  • ZIM - Sold the second half of my April $110 Calls for $0.75, up 142%, with the stock at $106.50.

BEXP - We played in the ZCAT and ZIM looking for another couple of wells that came early late last week. We stuck it out through a secondary offering that came, as somewhat expected, after the strange timing of that mid Thursday release of new well data.  We are looking forward to revised guidance here in the coming week.

Close trades off this play:

  • ZCAT -
  • ZIM - Sold the 40 April $17.50 calls, up 45% to my average cost, with stock trading at all time highs around $18.30

SSN - We played the 20% dip in the stock a week back that was caused by a dry hole on a Texas Yegua gas prospect when the real story, their first big Bakken horizontal test, was known to be within days of news. We added shares in the ZIM first and then in the ZLT as the stock languished.  More news is expected in the coming week with regard to the company's Gene well.

Closed trades off this play so far:

  • ZIM - Sold the 5,000 SSN for $0.70, up 64%, upon release of strong Bakken well results. 



11 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 4/09/10”

  1. 1
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Working thru the charts…a few interesting developments I wanted to mention…EXXI really looks good here, forming a nice consolidation, looks like its getting ready to move higher…HAL…this chart improved dramatically, really nice traingle holding above consolidated SMA support…NFX is displaying a farily uncommon “Megaphone formation” with an OBV divergence…this type of situation warrents caution…if you’re long NFX keep a close eye on this…

    Added two small stocks that have great chart setups…worth watching…DPTR and MPET…I also want to get back to KOG, which I hope to update later…


  2. 2
    milepost_43 Says:

    and add adequate pipeline capacity and Bakken crude will really be on the map

    Platts to assess value of Bakken crude —

    Platts Plans World’s First-Ever Price Assessments of Crude Oil From Bakken Shale Fields in Central U
    Posted by marin2008
    Tuesday, 06 April 2010
    The world’s first price assessments valuing crude oil produced from the Bakken Shale formation in the central United States, one of the most significant new sources of regional oil supply for the nation’s refiners, will be published by Platts, a leading global energy and metals information provider, beginning May 3, 2010.

    “Thanks to favorable economics and advances in technology, production from this unconventional crude oil source has risen dramatically in recent years,” said Esa Ramasamy, director of Americas market reporting at Platts. “This new high-quality crude oil stream is expected to help meet Midwest refining demand and potentially that of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Because of its importance, the industry needs a means of placing a value on this crude. Our new price assessments address this need by providing a transparent price discovery process and daily pricing information.”

    Only recent technological advances in horizontal and deep drilling have opened the Bakken field to economically recoverable production since its first oil extractions in 1951. The estimated recoverable reserves of crude oil from Bakken shale exceed the proven crude reserves of Ecuador, a consistent exporter of crude oil to Latin America, the U.S. West Coast, and Asia. According to the U.S. Geological Service, the Bakken formation is the largest oil accumulation in the Lower 48 U.S. states, with estimated recoverable reserves of at least 4 billion barrels. Additionally, north of the border in Canada, there is an estimated 1.3 billion barrels of recoverable reserves. The Bakken formation is part of the Williston Basin of underground petroleum reserves, which spans North and South Dakota, Montana, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Alberta.

    Platts reports that current Bakken crude output is about 200,000 barrels per day (b/d) and the North Dakota Pipeline Authority estimates that the field’s yield could rise quickly to between 400,000 b/d to 500,000 b/d over the next 10 years before tapering off.

    Platts’ two Bakken Blend assessments will help capture U.S. Midwest refining economics for the Rocky Mountain and Canadian crude production areas, which are growing in importance. The new daily spot assessments will provide an end-of-trading-day value of Bakken Blend crude injected into pipelines at Clearbrook, Minnesota, and Guernsey, Wyoming. The assessments will be published as a spot price and also as a differential to West Texas Intermediate crude oil.

    The Bakken Blend ex-Clearbrook assessment will reflect an American Petroleum Institute (API) gravity ranging from 38-40 degrees and 0.5% sulfur, similar to the characteristics of North Dakota Sweet. API gravity is a measure of how heavy or light a grade of crude oil is compared to water.

    The Bakken Blend ex-Guernsey assessment will represent an API gravity of 38-40 degrees and 0.2% sulfur, similar to the nature of North Dakota Light Sweet.

    “Platts has more than 100 years’ experience assessing physical commodity prices and bringing transparency to the markets through our price assessment processes,” said David Ernsberger, global director of oil. “We have been in the forefront of oil price discovery in the U.S. since 1909, and our decision to begin publishing an open-market value of this significant new source of high-quality North American crude is another example of our contributions to the industry and the marketplace.”

    Platts’ Bakken Blend assessments will be developed using its Market-on-Close (MOC) methodology, a structured, highly transparent price assessment process based on the principle that price is a function of time. The MOC process in oil identifies bid, offer and transaction data by company of origin and results in a time-sensitive end-of-trading-day daily price assessment. For more information on the methodology and quality-control guidelines, visit the methodology and specifications page of the Platts website.

    The assessments will be published in numerous Platts publications including Platts Global Alert, a real-time news service; Platts Dispatch, a data delivery service, and the publications Platts Crude Oil Marketwire, North American Crude Wire, and Platts Oilgram Price Report. For more information on crude oil, visit the Platts website at

  3. 3
    Jerome Blank Says:

    There are a lot a great technical setups developing in a good number of the stocks right now, some easier to manage than others…it’s like going thru your Halloween bag not knowing what to eat first…almost all of the charts have now been updated, I added a number of 30 min close ups and a good number of weekly charts which are becoming increasingly helpful right now…I’ll probably delete a few after they become less relevant as this number of charts is difficult to manage…a few of the stocks, like BEXP, that I have not gotten to I hope to commmet on tonight…there’s so much to say I could truly write for the next hour…if any one is interested in discussing a particular chart in greater detail, I would love to get into it…so please let me know…

    I added a 30 min KOG chart which which shows KOG closing right on the 50 period SMA which correlated nicely with triangle trendline support on the 30 min time frame chart…I added a bit more stock on Friday…I’d like to see an add’l retest of $3.90 next week….I just love this stock…hopfully I’m not too gaga to see matters clearly…if it breaks that intraday on Monday, it may try to retest the second gap at $3.75…I’ll probably add again there….

    I know it’s a hassle, but please vote if you have a minute….


  4. 4
    zman Says:

    MP = thanks

    JB = thanks, voted. Took a swing at the fence on BEXP with a little ZCAT profits Friday afternoon so interested to hear your thoughts there. Expecting some new guidance in conjunction with IPAA presentation tomorrow night.

  5. 5
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #4 Zman , thank you for the vote…

    BEXP added a 30 min close up and an additional daily perspective with comments…BEXP is a good example of why I don’t put too much emphasis on price objectives alone…the original price objective for BEXP on the current buy signal was $8….


  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Greece gets bailout, dollar slumps, crude rallies, equity futures on the rise early Sunday evening.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Re 5 – thanks much for the extra color.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    HAL bought Boots & Coots

  9. 9
    skimo Says:

    Good? Bad? Indifferent? TIA

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Skimo – See today’s post.

  11. 11
    skimo Says:

    Z, Thanks

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