02
Apr

Good Friday

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Equity markets are closed today. Futures and bonds are open for shortened sessions. Equity futures are up slightly following the release of the Payrolls data. Have a safe and Happy Easter weekend.


Ecodata Watch: Non-farm Payrolls:  Up 162,000; Unemployment: 9.7%.

  • Consensus was around +200,000 although there a couple of negative estimates and one up at +400,000.
  • Census workers were a smaller piece of the pie than expected.

Other Stuff:

  • TSO Reports Fire At Anacortes, WA Refinery. No word yet on damage. Best to the families affected.

Natural Gas Review:

 

  • There was another small draw in the East Consuming region but storage remains above the 5 year average there and in the smaller West region.

 

  • Gas jumped 6% on the slightly smaller than expected build in stocks but honestly, it's the squishy demand of the season that makes estimating with accuracy fairly difficult and we did miss out on a long winter as the much forecast return to cold in March simply didn't materialize.
  • From here the slope of the build will be critical in determining April and March prices. I don't see them getting much more than a small short covering boost, say into the mid $4's near term at best. What we need now is heat, a falling rig count, curtailments (although I think the power to affect price has been greatly diminished with the advent of shale drilling ... it's certainly not what it was 3 years ago when CHK could snap it's fingers in the late Fall and get a price response), announcements of capex reductions (I don't think they will be all that big due to hedges and those that lack hedges generally have capacity on their revolvers to take a little pain for an extended period).

9 Responses to “Good Friday”

  1. 1
    VTZ Says:

    10 year yield up a bunch

  2. 2
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    i can see that afftecting the royalty trusts and mlps; i guess we will see

  3. 3
    elduque Says:

    sd buying ARD for equivalent $40. Congratulations Bill.

  4. 4
    bill Says:

    OKLAHOMA CITY and TULSA, Okla., April 4, 2010 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ –SandRidge Energy, Inc. (NYSE: SD) and Arena Resources, Inc. (NYSE: ARD) today jointly announced that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which Arena shareholders will receive stock and cash consideration valued at $40 per share of Arena common stock based on SandRidge’s April 1 closing price. This represents a 17% premium for Arena shareholders. SandRidge will issue 4.7771 shares of SandRidge common stock and pay $2.50 in cash for each share of Arena common stock, resulting in a combined enterprise value of approximately $6.2 billion. SandRidge will be the surviving company, headquartered in Oklahoma City and its management team will continue in their current roles.

    —————————————–

    sd is bailing on ng

    short term they get hit again

    They are getting a good deal which make me wonder if ard had more problems than i realized

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Yes, congrats to Bill, should be a good Merger Monday reaction in the group.

  6. 6
    bill Says:

    Maybe the other oily names will go up..

    Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. is providing a fairness opinion to Arena

    Maybe they will upgrade sd in time.

    You almost wonder if sd becomes a target for somebody

  7. 7
    bill Says:

    why does this not suprise me

    http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052702303912104575163891292354932-lMyQjAxMTAwMDAwNDEwNDQyWj.html

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Bill – just saw the article. That’s why EOG, CHK, others have been crowing for months about not believing the data.

  9. 9
    bill Says:

    can you imagine if there really is not a surplus

    did some quick math on the sd acquisition

    post merger there would be about 400 m shares o/s. ard s/o would own about 48 % of the combined company

    they might have to pull an exxi and have a reverse 5 for 1 split

    all those 1 time non cash write offs they ran out of equity.

    im sure the debt holders would be happy with this acquisition

    it will be interesting to see how the market reacts

    they didnt like the crusader deal
    they didnt like the forest deal

    im leaning on cashing out and plowing the money on another oily opportunity

    I didnt see any stock adj factor so if sd pops its worth more than 40 and less if it falls

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