Wrap – Week Ended 2/26/10

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Comments to be added Sunday.


13 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 2/26/10”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    From Bill:

    for you weather fanatics

    just found this..very cool map.

    z you might want to link this

    month to date temp maps to normal


  2. 2
    zman Says:

    From Bill:

    you can define the days to animate

    so on this one coresponds to the eia weekly data for next week

    cooler than normal central part of the country


  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Bill – I took the first link you sent, put that in 1 browser and set it for the prior week. Then put it in another browser with this past week to date and set them both running side by side. Makes it easy to see just how much colder last week was and where. Thanks again.

  4. 4
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Just saw this article on Bloomberg…

    Chu talking about nat gas??
    File under “Pinch Me, I Must Be Dreaming…”

    Tulsa World: Chu talks up U.S. shale gas during trip to Middle East
    2010-02-27 16:01:49.161 GMT


    Energy Secretary Steven Chu cited the vast potential of U.S. shale gas Thursday during a visit to Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas.

    Unlocking natural gas from shale rock formations is “something quite new that has only come along in the last four or five years,” the Nobel Prize-winning physicist told reporters in the Qatari capital, Doha. “It could be a doubling of the gas reserves” in the United States.

    The U.S. has been increasing its output of shale gas, potentially reducing demand for imports of LNG from countries such as Qatar. The Persian Gulf nation plans to start three LNG production units this year, boosting annual capacity by 43 percent to about 3.75 trillion cubic feet.

    LNG is natural gas that’s been chilled to a liquid to enable its transportation by ship.

    Qatar initially planned to sell almost a quarter of its LNG output to the U.S. State-run Qatar Petroleum is the majority stakeholder in an LNG receiving terminal due to open in Texas this year.

    Qatar last year announced plans to divert some LNG to higher- priced markets such as China.

    Chu’s trip to Qatar is part of a regional visit that brought him to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia earlier in the week. He met Thursday with Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah in Doha, and the two signed a cooperation accord on renewable- energy research.

    Gas will be used as a “transition fuel” to renewable resources in the U.S., Chu said. Gas-fired power stations can be started more quickly than coal or oil-fed plants when reductions in solar or wind power necessitate backup supply, he said.

    U.S. gas reserves may be 39 percent higher than estimated two years ago, reflecting improved yields from so-called unconventional resources such as shale, says the Potential Gas Committee, a nonprofit group.

    Originally published by ROBERT TUTTLE Bloomberg News.

    (c) 2010 Tulsa World. Provided by ProQuest LLC. All rights Reserved.
    SubDES: YBX958
    SubId: YBX958

  5. 5
    bill Says:

    agreed, i just did the same thing. Here are the 2 weeks together


    i think you mentioned in a post earlier this week you were colder than normal

    this chart shows it and that colder than normal weather moves west to east

    if you slow it down frame by frame, last week we had colder weather in the central part of the country and warmer in the east.
    Next week that colder weather moves east

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Bill – easily we get two more big withdrawals. On top of that, last time I checked the weather into mid to late March looked cold.


    BOP – That almost amounts to a policy shift. Wow. This administration floats more trial balloons than any other so they may be gearing up to support the NGA (due March I think).

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Bill – I like the map with the dots even better for the compare and contrast. Put them on side by side monitors, sit back, smile.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    3 key senators look at new climate bill that leaves out cap and trade


  9. 9
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Updated chart perspectives and a few comments…



  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Thanks much Jerome, will take a look.

    Family stuff has come up so I’ll have wrap and ROSE earnings and operations update comments in the Monday post.

  11. 11
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I like BedTime Market Strategist’s quote from Berkshire… mainly ‘cuz it SO TRUE

    Holding Pattern.

    Friday was another slow session, especially for a month end, as the weather again played a role. The Northeastern United States is ready for spring to arrive. Volume in February was approximately 6.5% slower than that of January. Earnings season is over, trading activity is listless, global deficit issues remain in the headlines and a cloud of uncertainty, or more aptly snowflakes of uncertainty, have hovered over every economic data point for more than a month. The combination of all of these factors leaves investors dealing with a trendless market. The S&P 500 has been consolidating around the 1100 level for the past 4 ½ months. In the next two weeks, the March lows of last year will annualize and fall off one year charts. At this point, the year long trend will not be as steep and 1100 consolidation will develop into either major long term support or major resistance. Only the next big move in the market will tell investors which it is. Because of the previously mentioned factors, there is a high probability that we will not know until the end of March. In the interim, the 50 day moving average remains the key early warning indicator. The S&P 500 has only closed above the 50 day once since January 21st, which was the last time the index closed in positive year to date territory.


    This week markets will receive the first of the suspect February economic data. Not only will data appear weak because of the weather, but in many cases, we suspect the reporting process will have been slowed down, and hence revisions will likely be noteworthy. Should a few numbers prove to beat expectations, they will likely be taken at face value since the weather will not be accused of improving business (unless you are selling snow-blowers). The data will kick off with the February ISM Manufacturing Survey. The January survey was the strongest since August 2004. It was so strong that Norbert Ore, who runs the survey, noted on his conference call with reporters during the last release that many of the January metrics would be hard to beat in February. For example, in the New Orders category he noted, “I don’t think we can sustain this degree of month-to-month improvement. I would be surprised to see this index come in above 60 again. A 55 reading would be strong.” The other metrics Ore expected not to see improve in February were Employment and Deliveries. He noted that Production could see continued strength due to the strength of New Orders in recent months and the record low Customer Inventories should begin to see some restocking soon.

    Expensive Reassurance.

    The following is quote from Berkshires letter to shareholders this year. It aptly highlights if you wait to invest in a “perfect” environment you are likely going to pay bad prices. “We’ve put a lot of money to work during the chaos of the last two years. It’s been an ideal period for investors: A climate of fear is their best friend. Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance. In the end, what counts in investing is what you pay for a business – through the purchase of a small piece of it in the stock market – and what that business earns in the succeeding decade or two.”

  12. 12
    West Says:

    JB,Thanks for the great charts . You are already doing so many charts I hate to ask but I am curious on your take on the XEC chart. If your too busy I will understand. Thanks for everything.

  13. 13
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #12, West…great looking chart…XEC charts and comments…


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