17
Feb
Wednesday – Thank You Sir, May I Have Another?!
Note - We get oil data tomorrow, not today, due to the President's Day holiday.
Market Sentiment Watch: Better. Well, at least as far as the very short term sentiment reading goes. Last week we read that bearish sentiment was hitting a cycle high and as is nearly always the case, a rally ensued. The dollar is falling back away from 9 month highs as the Euro finally seems to have found firmer ground around the 136 level, a target for so many technicians. Once the Euro rallied (or the dollar faltered as the case may be), commodities were given the green light to advance and equities followed (pretty sure I have that order correct). At this point, crude has backed away from the recent brink by over 10% leaving many of the calls for $50 and even $40 crude a quiet echo. In other words, the big drop hasn't happened, in fact, quite the contrary has occurred and while we will surely see continued volatility, my sense is that tests of 1,100 for the S&P and $80 for oil are due in short order with levels for the broad equity markets from there to be set by technicians in the face of what turned out to be a not so bad earnings season. Do I think the crisis is over and that it's onward and upward? No, probably not but perhaps the things that made the last month feel like a crisis were simply not crisis-worthy. The jobs picture is not great but less bleak. Manufacturing is getting stronger as shown by readings on industrial productivity, exports, and inventories. Things are slow but the economy is far from rolling back over either. OK, OK, I'll go back to my energy corner ... just letting you know where I stand. I started selling February calls yesterday into market strength and lightly repositioning for March. Expect more of the same today.
- Eco Data Watch:
- Housing Starts: up 2.8% vs down 0.7% last month. This was in line with expectations.
- Import prices: up 1.4% vs up 1.1% forecast, with fuel prices leading the number higher.
- Industrial production: Forecast at 0.9%, we get this number at 9:15 EST
- Housing Starts: up 2.8% vs down 0.7% last month. This was in line with expectations.
In Today's Post:
- Holdings Watch
- Commodity Watch
- Stuff We Care About Today - Enercom Conference, NFX 4Q earnings, CXPO metrics and operations comments, CHK Update, GDP, HAL
- Odds & Ends
Holdings Watch:
- $10KP II:
- $16,800
- 38% Cash
- The quick view of the Holdings tab has been updated.
- $16,800
- Yesterday's Trades:
- BEXP – Sold half (30 calls) of the Feb $15s for $0.85, up 129%, with the stock at $15.85 (so the premium is pretty much toast as we enter the final week). I will hold the other half a little longer and I continue to hold the $17.50s (worthless) and the common.
- BEXP – Sold another 20 calls for $1.35, up 271% with the stock at $16.35. That leaves 10 in to play for any further upside and the still worthless $17.50 calls and the common.
- BEXP – Added (10 – starting small) $17.50 MARCH Calls for $0.80 (on the high side of the mid) with the stock at $16.45. See comments on the site today re potential catalysts 47, 48. I am likely to come out of the last bit of my Feb $15s today.
- MMR - Sold the last of $15 Feb calls (10) for $1.50, up 34% with the stock at $16.45. I may roll longer soon.
- NFX - Sold the 3 Feb $50s for $3.10, down 12%. I continue to hold some $55 Feb strikes and the common.
- NFX - Added (10) March $55s for $1.80 with the stock hovering around $53. They announce 4Q results after the close.
- BEXP - Added another (10) of the March $17.50 calls for average of $0.675 with the stock at $16.10.
Commodity Watch:
Crude oil rallied $2.88 to close at $77.01 yesterday as equity markets soared and the dollar sank. The 12 month strip jumped a similar amount ending at $79.42 and that chart now looks like this ... back from the recent brink. API plans to release its weekly stats today after the close, a day delayed like EIA. This morning crude is trading up slightly.
Early Read On Oil Inventories:
- Crude: UP 1.6 mm barrels
- Gasoline: UP 1.3 mm barrels
- Distillates: DOWN 1.6 mm barrels
Natural gas fell $0.16 to close the day at $5.31 as a slightly warmer forecast inspired profit taking. This morning gas is trading fairly flat.
Stuff We Care About Today
NFX Reports Solid Quarterly Results; Guides To Stronger Growth in 2010
The 4Q09 Numbers
- Production of 64.6 Bcfe (71% natural gas) vs a range of 63.3 to 65.3 Bcf, so high end of range
- vs 65.5 Bcfe last quarter
- Costs - they have been improving
- LOE was $0.91 vs $0.81 last quarter. Guidance is a bit higher, bears some scrutiny as it looks like the international side is dragging it up a bit.
- Guidance was $0.83 to $0.89
- LOE was $0.91 vs $0.81 last quarter. Guidance is a bit higher, bears some scrutiny as it looks like the international side is dragging it up a bit.
- EPS of $1.40 (ex items) vs $1.35 expected
- CFPS of $3.32 vs $2.99 expected
Reserves:
- 2009 up 23% to 3.6 Tcfe
- Market is valuing their reserves at $2.50/ Mcfe.
- All in Finding and Development costs of $.50 / Mcfe including the impact of negative revisions due to prices, mostly in their PUDs. Without the pricing revisions, F&D costs would have been $1.18 / Mcfe. These are all over the map this year with the new rules so am not sure how much it really matters.
Guidance:
- 1Q10 volume guidance: 62.6 to 69.2 Bcfe, as usual straddling the recent quarter's number.
- 2010 volume guidance: 8 to 12% growth or 278 to 288 Bcfe; they generally inch up guidance as the year progresses.
- Food for thought watch: 2009 was 6 to 10% and last year they continually/habitually guided to the top of that range.
Operations Update:
Woodford Shale
- Production reached 191 MMcfepd net recently (that's 27% of company total), a new record as they returned curtailed production to sales and added new wells.
- Sees lateral length expanding to 6,000' average in 2010 vs 5,000' in 2009; longer laterals have equaled a cost effective approach to bigger per well reserves to date in the program.
- 5 of 11 super extended wells came in > 10 MM/d; the others are completing.
- 50 wells planned this year with a 6 to 8 rig program.
- They are drilling wells faster than before so don't be surprised to hear that the well count ultimately comes in higher than 50 with the low end of that rig range.
Monument Butte (Uinta Basin, UT):
- Production hanging out at 17,000 bopd (14.5% of total co.)
- Seeing some thicker than expected Green River sections and seeing some larger than normal IPs from step out wells (wells outside the proven area on their acreage). Could be some upside surprise potential here.
- See growing that 15% this year via 275 new wells
Eagle Ford (Maverick Basin, Tx):
- Drilling begins 2Q
- Plan to spend about $100 mm which should pay for a dozen or so wells (split between the Georgetown and the Pearsall and Eagle Ford Shales).
Bakken:
- Current production: 3,000 boepd net, or just 2.5% of total co. 4Q levels
- 3 rigs for 2010; no well count given, but it should be at least 20, compared to their 14 wells drilled to date in the play.
- Looking over their results the company is one of the few to drill consistently bigger Three Forks than Bakken completions in the Williston.
- Their 30 day IPs look better than many I've seen as well with two of significant note:
- IP of 1,328 boepd, 30 day average 1,114 boepd - this is the Gladys 1-9H
- IP of 1,256 boepd, 30 day average of 1,010 boepd - the Wisness 1-4H
- IP of 1,328 boepd, 30 day average 1,114 boepd - this is the Gladys 1-9H
- 150,000 net acres around the Nesson and west of it.
Montana Bakken:
- 221,000 acres in Glacier County Montana
- 10 wells in 2010 (unchanged from prior comments).
- 1st well to spud in April
- This is where ROSE has 3 wells down but no formally disclosed production as of yet and KWK may have 2 wells at TD as well.
Granite Wash:
- First 12 wells average IP of 20 MMcfepd.
- First 7 averaged 22 MMcfepd
- Next 6 averaged 16.65 MMcfepd - people will want to read something into lower rates but note that these are Atoka dry gas wells that don't have the liquids components seen in 5 of the first 7 wells. NFX said it will be testing 4 to 6 new formations this year.
- 20 wells planned for 2010 with a 4 rig program
- First 7 averaged 22 MMcfepd
Gulf of Mexico:
- Production is expected to be up 60% in 2010. This is what I've been talking about with comments regarding their stair step production growth as development projects are brought online.
- This will grow the segment from 7.5% last year to 11% of total company volumes
- Exploration: 2 to 3 deepwater exploratory tests this year, two of these are in close proximity to current developments.
Capex and Liquidity
- $1.6 Billion, about 1/3 of it on oil projects.
- Management commented that spending is in line with projected cash flow for 2010.
- No borrowings outstanding on its $1.25 B line of credit.
- Net debt to cap of 41%.
Hedges:
- 70% of 2010 gas hedged at over $6.60 (same % as last time, up a dime on the price)
- 65% of 2010 oil hedged at $108. (this was only at 40% as their last update so good hedging to them!)
Nutshell: Good quarter. Bottom line beat on EPS and CFPS with strong guidance for 2010 volumes. Costs look a little high during the quarter (that can be end of year stuff) and in the guidance (that could be management bagging the Street). With volumes set to grow 8 to 12% (and I had said it would be 7 to 13% on the site yesterday) and oil and gas prices remaining elevated to what they were last year (especially given NFX's strong hedge position), it's hard to see how Street numbers don't go ahead, with spoonfed guidance in hand, and rally from the current levels. At present the Street puts 2009 CFPS at $11.98 and 2010 at $11.29, it just won't stay that way.
Conference Call: Wednesday, 9:30 EST.
CHK Operations Update Highlights
- 2009 volumes were up 8%
- Sees 2010 volumes up 8-10%
- Sees 2011 volumes up 15-17%
- CHK had a number of play updates in the press release, and I won't repeat them all here but of interest were their Granite Wash completions:
GDP Provides 2010 Guidance
- 2010 guidance of 15 to 25%
- Reserves grew 4.5% to 421 Bcfe
- Short interest stands at a whopping 37% of the float here so this remains a good candidate for a squeeze.
- Estimates are likely too low here given the new growth guidance with 2009 CFPS at $3.35 and 2010 down at $3.15 due to some low ball estimates. As these come up watch for consensus for 2010 to move above $4.
HAL & Other Service Invited To Drill In Rumalia, Iraq
- HAL, SLB, WFT, BHI, and others to drill 56 new wells in the super giant oil field
- No dollar amount given but good for sentiment.
Crimson Exploration Issued Production Guidance, Reserves, Operations Update - Out mid day yesterday.
- Just a few quick comments to add to the file on these guys; I plan on staying away until the name is more fairly valued, someplace below $3, probably closer to $2.50. Current price is $3.58.
- 4Q production of 34,800 Mcfepd
- 2009 came in at 40,900 Mcfepd vs 52,600 Mcfedp in 2008; the drop primarily coming from reduced drilling activity
- 2010 guidance of 35 to 39,000 Mcfepd; not exactly exciting as the low end implies flat levels with the 2009 exit rate.
- 1Q10 guidance of 30 to 32,000 Mcfepd.
- Reserves fell 19% from 2008 results to arrive at 97.5 Bcfe. Given the current total enterprise value of $288 mm, the market is still valuing CXPO's reserves at an all too lofty $2.95 / Mcfe, up from the $2.40 / Mcfe their 2008 reserve report would have yielded.
- 2010 Capex of $50 to $56 mm vs estimated EBITDA of $87 mm
- This gets you:
- 7 Haynesville wells
- 1 Eagle Ford well
- 4 Yegua/Cook Mountain wells in southeast Texas
- 7 Haynesville wells
- This gets you:
- Operations Update:
- Haynesville: Their much touted Kardell well in San Augustine county Texas, the so called highest rate Haynesville well with an IP of 30.7 Mcfepd has been on sales for 90s with an average rate approaching 11 MMcfepd. This is a small working interest well in an area of the Haynesville where others are seeing high rates as well and where CXPO has 12,000 net acres.
- Eagle Ford Update: Vertical well drilled ... encouraging. Planning a horizontal well for the second half of 2010. This is a little later than I think people would like.
- This section will be added to the CXPO Notes page.
Enercom Conference
- See full schedule for today and tomorrow here.
- Wednesday's names of interest (to me at least): (all times EST)
- EXXID -1:30 pm
- GMXR - 1:55
- LINE - 2:20
- Presentation from Tom Petrie - pretty smart guy - 3:30
- WLL - 4:30
- ATPG - 5:20
- FXEN - 7:00
- CPE - 7:50
Catalyst List - I'll have a fresh one out for tomorrow's post.
SSN Review - tabled on account of earnings everywhere until Wednesday's post.
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch:
- WLL - upped to Overweight at Barclays
- SFY - upped to Equalweight at Barclays
- NFX - UBS raises target $2 to $62, remains at Buy
Good morning. Our friend TED proved (once again) to be a Guide thru the Tunnel of (recent) Darkness. At least he did for me. If TED wasn’t going bonkers over the PIGS (with an emphasis on the “G”), I could take comfort in the Bears leaving the playing field soon.
Bears made a lot of $$ over the last couple of weeks. They know people are edgy, so they will be back. Last year, it was the banks. This year, Sovereign Credits are proving irresistable to the Ursine Crowd. But, fore-warned is fore-armed. Or something like that. The Bears will be back.
Sorry I missed the action yesterday. Got caught up in non-energy stuff. But, almost snorted coffee, when I saw how Mr. Market treated little KOG. “What the heck??!!” Or, words to that effect. Well #10 couldn’t be lovelier! Huge 24-hr IP results. It’s a short-lateral well, so was never going to have 3,000 boe resuls. But, as a short lateral, it is almost comparable to those type of results. So, go figure. Who sold?
z sent me a Raymond James commentary on the KOG operational update. I thought it captured the situation exactly. Perhaps he can post a few comments from the write up.
February 17th, 2010 at 8:57 amCredit Market Benchmarks —
TED Spread (cash) 15.12443 bps
IG CDS Index 96.5 -1 3/4 bps
HY CDS Index 96.25 +7/8 pts
So, rally in credit across the board. And oil futures (on my delayed screen) looking spiffy. Perhaps KOG will get some of the credit they deserve, for posting great Well #10 results yesterday.
By the way, this speaks to our recent pronouncements that “there ARE no secrets in the Bakken, Sifu.”*** It is totally unlike Lynn to post single-well results. But, if you can’t keep it quiet, it’s better to put out the facts yourself… then to let the Rumor Mill spill the beans for you.
** lightly lifted from “Kung Fu Panda”
February 17th, 2010 at 9:07 amDollar bouncy this morning, giving crude some reason for caution, still headed lower by my way of thinking however.
KOG – he basically said there was some confusion of timing on drilling this year. As I read it and outlined in yesterday’s post, things are a bit slower than people had been looking for. People thought they’d get well 11, with well 10. The rate was very good for a short lateral. I really think he should stick to announcing 1 to 2 items and at a time and communicating with the Street more frequently. I’m not saying you have to report well by well forever and I understand he doesn’t want to be a hypester but Lynn has a $2.50 stock he’d like to be a $10 stock and the only way to do that is to communicate the plan often and loudly until people are not confused by the results.
February 17th, 2010 at 9:08 amATP is currently releasing the Ocean Victory after completing the AT 63 #4 well. The well was tested from two zones at a combined average rate of 10.7 MBoe/d (87% Oil). The well will now be tied into the ATP Titan in preparation of first production later this quarter…..
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MjcwNzg2OHxDaGlsZElEPTM2OTA3MHxUeXBlPTI=&t=1
February 17th, 2010 at 9:09 amis 4 new news
February 17th, 2010 at 9:15 amRe 4, was just about to repost for you. That is a big well, 100% WI, on a current production base of less than 20 m boepd, very fast hookup due to existing infrastructure tie back. I’ll be taking a trading position this morning.
February 17th, 2010 at 9:16 amHigher ops costs making NFX pre-market weak?
February 17th, 2010 at 9:19 amRe 7 – Probably.
The quarter was a beat.
February 17th, 2010 at 9:22 amThe cost guidance is always conservative. The growth guidance should have been about what people were thinking.
The stock remains cheap to its peers.
The call starts in 10 minutes.
Morning all. SPX has resistance at 1097, then 1103 – 1106. Today is a fib turn day although they need to be given some leeway. I actually think they can keep this rally going another week but there are several possible counts on the table here. Under any of the counts once this tops we should see a move back towards 1080 on the spx.
February 17th, 2010 at 9:27 amRe 8, some people making bones about capex guidance.
February 17th, 2010 at 9:28 amFrom TPH this morning:
“What’s good for the CHK goose is good for the SWN gander as CHK’s Fayetteville results impress.”
CHK’s long laterals in the southern part of the play have been bigger than what we’ve seen out of SWN yet, so results at SWN are likely to continue to walk up as they just haven’t gotten down there as much yet.
WLL marking up on the Barclays upgrade.
GDP – could be a squeeze day.
February 17th, 2010 at 9:30 amJat – yeah, as in dollars bigger than we expect so where’s the production guidance. They need to realize they are being bagged by the company, that the company will raise estimates all year long on them.
February 17th, 2010 at 9:31 amCouldn’t grab anything at that sub $50 level on the open in NFX, just a stupid seller down there.
February 17th, 2010 at 9:31 amNFX call starting. Stock fell $4 at the open, now down 80 cents.
February 17th, 2010 at 9:34 amIndustrial production came out in line.
February 17th, 2010 at 9:35 amNFX Comments:
Future stuff:
$1.6 B capex. Includes investment costs in the TXCO acquisition.
35% of budget directed to oil plays
more than half of 2010 revenues will come from oil; despite being a 70% NG production company.
waiting on them to address operating costs…
February 17th, 2010 at 9:45 amNFX TXCO – South Texas, Maverick Basin
> 300,000 acres in Maverick and Dimmit Counties.
Ranges across the dry gas, wet gas, and oil windows.
3 rigs running by early summer.
All 300,000 acres prospective for EFS. Over 200K are 90%+ working interest.
167,000 acres are prospective for the Pearsall (encouraged by recent drilling by others)
Q&A on the way…
February 17th, 2010 at 9:52 amTo Do List for Today — Get EXXID to close over $20.
We could be just a couple of days (I’m thinking/guesstimating Monday) from an update on the results of the last logging suite from Davy Jones. News about the estimated net feet of pay zones, possibly information about the nature of the pay itself (from direct formation testing), plans for completing and timeschedule for production. Then, where the drilling rig will move to next on the prospect, what the location and target zone will be. Amount of money that will cost. (Preview — lots.) What the geologic implications are for the other ultra-deep shelf prospects.
Yep. Unless something nasty happens downhole, I’m thinking we get the full Davy Jones Report Card early next week. And I don’t expect to see any failing grades.
February 17th, 2010 at 9:58 amEXXID speaks in a bit at Enercom, maybe they give a little advance color.
February 17th, 2010 at 10:02 amz — not sure there is a heck of a lot to add, verbally, at this point. However, Schiller’s body language should be downright perky. He’s a Happy Guy these days.
February 17th, 2010 at 10:05 amSecond chance on NFX sub 50….. Apparently Q&A not so good.
February 17th, 2010 at 10:12 amS&P hovering beneath 1,100. If it breaks that I’d look for another smaller leg up, maybe to the 1108 level at the 50 day sma.
Group pretty mixed so far this morning.
Sunshine – Q&A still ongoing, nothing on it I’d call a detraction from the story, just noise.
February 17th, 2010 at 10:14 amNoise in the share price that is.
February 17th, 2010 at 10:14 amMHR…if MHR prints $2.50, that adds a new box that’s taking forever to reach, there might then be some profit taking, next support on a pullback is at about $2.19, just under trendline support and at the 20 day SMA… this would be a first good spot to consider longs…any fundamental reason not to consider on the retrace?
February 17th, 2010 at 10:16 amZ: you can give VTZ my email number or I can just write it here — your call
February 17th, 2010 at 10:18 amZTRADE – WildZ – Higher risk trade
NFX – Added (15) Feb $50 calls for $1 with the stock at 50.05, off 5% during the 4Q conference call. See today’s post for details on the quarter and outlook. Obviously I’ll be pretty fast on this one.
February 17th, 2010 at 10:18 amVTZ: interesting about Viking — you know who is big there? — PWE
February 17th, 2010 at 10:19 amYeah there’s lots of mature production there and it’s a big play similar to Cardium.
February 17th, 2010 at 10:21 amThose are the same strikes I sold yesterday for $3.10.
February 17th, 2010 at 10:21 amBSJ – I will send it to you.
February 17th, 2010 at 10:21 amVTZ: PWE is an interesting stock. It is has refocus into a four or five plays. Getting rid of some of the excess stuff they bought through the years and is paying down debt.
February 17th, 2010 at 10:25 amand a great yield.
February 17th, 2010 at 10:28 amEXXID…updated 5 min chart…
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280
February 17th, 2010 at 10:29 amNFX – call over, good tone, no harping on the capex on the call, none on the higher LOE guidance either. 2010 bigger than 2009 and setting up bigger 2011. Maverick basin will get lots of capital for a long time. Same goes for Granite Wash. Wells completing now there are in the condensate window so bigger rates coming from the play again next quarter. I’ll hold the longer stuff and trade out of this recent entry on any kind of a bounce towards $51 today.
February 17th, 2010 at 10:32 amJB — thanks. Voted.
So, as long as EXXID closes at or above 19.80 today, we remain in that ever-narrowing, flag-formation pattern. And that is a “bullish” pattern, right?
February 17th, 2010 at 10:36 amATPG – “news” seems to have been already disseminated via rumors over last few days so not having a big impact today, however, given the size of the run, the size of the well, and ATPGs still pretty low valuation irregardless of the balance sheet which will improve more this year, I don’t think it has run enough and is just resting.
February 17th, 2010 at 10:47 amThanks NIcky – just saw #9.
February 17th, 2010 at 10:55 amBSJ – sent email.
Market sloshing about in front of Fed minutes at 2 pm EST.
February 17th, 2010 at 11:05 amRE: 37 — got it Thanks VTZ and thanks Z for being postman.
February 17th, 2010 at 11:06 amRe: #35 BOP, thank you for the vote…the ascending triangle is a bullish pattern…since we are looking at a 5 min, this is intraday support and resistance..as I write this it looks like EXXID is breaking intraday trendline support…let’s see if if it quickly bounces back into the pattern or if $19.70 acts as resistance here…
February 17th, 2010 at 11:12 amDoing a little reading, hears to the FOMC minutes giving the market an afternoon wakeup call. Lots of things look like they are starting to think about getting pinned already but this is too soon for that and we still have oil and gas inventories tomorrow would should shake things up.
February 17th, 2010 at 11:18 amDollar strength and oil strength looks very odd to me. In fact everything is shrugging off this move in the dollar today. Not sure that can continue.
February 17th, 2010 at 11:25 amNot sure I get why the dollar is bouncing this much …. housing data?
February 17th, 2010 at 11:28 amre 43 – on the thought that rising interest rates are inevitable I would guess.
February 17th, 2010 at 11:29 amATPG well Milepost mentioned a couple of days ago, don’t see a press release, just the presentation slide. Stock just about flat on the day now.
February 17th, 2010 at 11:30 amNicky – hear ya on 44, someday sure but not a day near us I think. My guess is the dollar rolls over when the FOMC minutes give the dollar bulls nothing to bite on. I’d think those guys would pay attention to building permits and not just housing starts but maybe not. Raise rates now and you ensure the double dip.
February 17th, 2010 at 11:32 amThe house data was not good imo. We don’t need to be building more homes. We already have a huge oversupply.
February 17th, 2010 at 11:34 amRE 44: Respectfully Nicky, you’re crazy if you think rates are going up anytime soon other than a token quarter point and then a freeze for a looooong time.
February 17th, 2010 at 11:38 amRE 47: I agree with ya, housing starts increasing should be a bad thing… it means that market isn’t getting the right indicators.
February 17th, 2010 at 11:38 amV – Crazy was how the U.S. women’s team lost to Japan in Curling.
February 17th, 2010 at 11:40 amVTZ not saying they are just saying the market may be worried they are which is why the dollar is on the move.
February 17th, 2010 at 11:42 amAgree wholeheartedly with 51. This market has the collective memory of a gnat. I don’t see any hikes in 2010. After each set of Fed minutes, which I do bother to read, I read other guys, much smarter than myself in that arena, that say no hikes in 2010. I have seen nothing to change their opinion yet in the data or in the Fed speak.
Larry Nichols of DVN will be on with Cramer at lunch talking about the future of gas in the U.S.
February 17th, 2010 at 11:47 amI also agree with the housing comment. We have too much as it is. Lumber prices have been shooting up of late,
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=LBH0&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=
call that a rebubble.
February 17th, 2010 at 11:50 amEXXID – hmmm, not acting all that great in front of the meet and greet at Enercom. Probably price action is moot in front of further Davy news. Even though the story isn’t all about DJ, right now it is.
February 17th, 2010 at 11:57 amEXXID — funny thing, it stayed green, even as the other two in the DJ Triad (MMR, PXP) turned red. So, who knows. Would like to see it achieve (and hold) $20. But, until DJ results are out, it’s really just a random bouncing ball.
However, DJ final report card coming out soon.
February 17th, 2010 at 12:02 pmSPX may have just finished a small wave iv with the gap fill to the 1095 area. If so we have a possible target area of 1105 for wave v and the end of this rally. Cycles look weaker tomorrow.
February 17th, 2010 at 12:03 pmZ: I was at your current stock holdings. Do you think that on a total return basis, that your best performer was LINE — a MLP?
February 17th, 2010 at 12:03 pmWell good news, Cramer calling the current environment in commodities a boom, lol.
BSJ – I don’t give entry dates on there as I really don’t see the point, but LINE would be just behind the Bakken names, like KOG and BEXP on an annualized basis even with the dividend.
February 17th, 2010 at 12:06 pmFWIW: (emphasis on W)
This “may” be a contrarian indicator-I cannot remember when she has been right on the market.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=aywoeYo6y32c
February 17th, 2010 at 12:07 pmLast year it was really breathtaking the moves of the entire mlp sector. Even stocks like MWE and NGLS had hugh price swings and stocks like XTEX or APL where off the charts.
February 17th, 2010 at 12:12 pmOMG Choices – she is possibly the greatest contrarian indicator. Love it.
February 17th, 2010 at 12:14 pmMarket set up to break one way or the other off those numbers….very very quiet in advance.
Choices – she’s a well paid pumper at least, lol.
BSJ – Some day, when yields do move back up you can bet some cash parked in the MLP’s will come back out rather swiftly.
February 17th, 2010 at 12:15 pmEXXID trying to find support at the 50 perod SMA on the 30 min, if we can get a consolidation here the test for the day wil be to get back above intraday resistance now at about $19.70
EXXID 30 min chart added
EXXID 5 min updated…
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280
February 17th, 2010 at 12:16 pmOil acting very much like it doesn’t believer the dollar move and/or that distillates demand has to creep up as industrial production rises for a 7th month, more houses get built, and more inventories get restocked.
February 17th, 2010 at 12:16 pmJerome – I was walking through BEXP charts with a friend who is a more of a TA guy than myself by a long shot. He said normally that’s one he’d say was up a lot and due for a pullback but upon looking at MACD and RSI (which has been elevated for awhile now) he thinks it could go on up a couple of bucks from here. In my book, the forward multiple is already stretched but I doubt the handful of analysts who have cut it to Hold go so far as to cut it down to Sell. The rest are milking it higher and talking about the next sets of wells that test a new area in Montana and the TFS in their Rough Rider area. So I could see it go higher in the near term as they drop another big lateral at Ross on the market, possibly next week, definitely within the next 3 weeks. Any thoughts?
February 17th, 2010 at 12:21 pmAnd I should add that it is acting particularly buoyant in light of yesterday’s outperformance and the group action today.
February 17th, 2010 at 12:21 pm… And now I remember why I don’t listen to CNBC. The DVN interview was pretty worthless. The Fast Money guys think exactly the opposite of what I think on the dollar and said that the dollar / market relationship has changed so its ok. I don’t buy that.
NFX edging up here. Planning to sell those FEB calls taken this morning around the time of the FOMC minutes.
February 17th, 2010 at 12:36 pmNotes from Enercom:
Just a general comment, jackup building cycle has largely run its course – a positive for the likes of DO, RIG, ESV, RDC, NE who all have a shallow water segment. Deepwater to remain very strong all year, from Brazil, GOmex, emerging markets. Calling this a year of transition with 2011 looking very good for offshore.
Mentioned Davy Jones – despite the potential, the analyst doesn’t see drilling activity on the Shelf ever getting back to its old levels (70s through 90s)
February 17th, 2010 at 12:41 pmRE: 67 — If the fast money guys know so much, how come they go on TV, in the middle of a working day, and give away trading positions and ideas for free?
February 17th, 2010 at 12:42 pmBSJ – exactly
Listening to DWSN geo presentation at Enercom. I can never get into the geo stories but like to pay attention.
February 17th, 2010 at 12:44 pm#65 BEXP, a few additonal thoughts along the lines of #65, so I thought it might be easier to post a chart…
BEXP vew#2 daily….
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280
February 17th, 2010 at 12:47 pmCould you image working for Cramer? He was know for throwing things like telephones, key boards, etcc at the walls and at some of his assts. The first time Cramer did that to me I would have kicked his ass. No job is worth that.
February 17th, 2010 at 12:47 pmThanks JB will have a look.
BSJ – no way, no how.
DWSN saying the Barclays E&P capital spending survey is out. Saying it sees 11% YoY growth for 2010 spending. That’s pretty strong but jives with what I am seeing (at least) out of my companies. More good news for service companies.
February 17th, 2010 at 12:51 pmz- interested to hear your thoughts on Dawson. I own competitor TGE…….
February 17th, 2010 at 12:53 pmDWSN CEO ~ If there is a link between climate change and human activity WE are it. Everywhere they put a crew it snow. Says to please call if you need seismic shot and you live in a warm sunny area. They are very busy.
February 17th, 2010 at 12:54 pmBSJ: remember at this time last year the MLPs were yielding 20-30% in the face of an about-to-be contraction in yield and risk spreads (as BOP has so helpfully chronicled). That lead to the monster MLP performance. Now they seem to be busy buying assets rather than raising their distributions. Longer term it is very unclear to me that they will increase production/share as an acquisition immediately is followed by a secondary. If true, performance from here is dependent on what yield the market demands from them.
February 17th, 2010 at 12:54 pm(This is my quick reaction.)
Re: #71 BEXP…. one more thing… to addd to the complexity, the punch above resistance yesterday did ultimately break 50 day MA vol, so, as Zman pointed out, the breakout looked good…
February 17th, 2010 at 12:55 pmIsle – I listen to their calls occasionally and I recall the troubles they have had. Sounds like they are looking at a better utilization rate year this year.
RMD – I can’t argue with that, I see mine as an annuity stream and as long as the bottom doesn’t drop out oil and gas prices I’m happy holding and getting paid. I may add a VNR position as I still think they can add to their dividend again.
February 17th, 2010 at 12:57 pmZTRADE:
NFX – Sold the 15 Feb $50 calls bought earlier today, on the mid, at $1.45, up 45%, with the stock at $51.
February 17th, 2010 at 12:58 pmZ- do you know what Barclay’s E&P survey had projected for 2009?
February 17th, 2010 at 12:59 pmJoe Terranova says buy oil looking for $90 due to the geopolitical risk.
Well all I can say to that is if the dollar continues to move up he is going to need to actually see some of this geopolitical stuff. Sounds like a speculator talking to me.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:01 pmRe: #77 BEXP one more follow-up…for another positive note….if you check out the 30 min chart…BEXP has held the first area of support at the 20 period SMA…(see micro trendline)…
February 17th, 2010 at 1:02 pmIsle – I don’t recall, it would have been very low, so it would have gotten beaten as the year progressed.
“Speculator” ~ not that there’s anything wrong with that.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:03 pmZ – he doesn’t care what he says as long as he ramps his trade. So he’s long. Why anyone would follow him I don’t know – he seems to get whipped in and out of every trade he gives.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:04 pmAh, now that’s a touter, and yeah, there’s something wrong with that. I agree, the guy has no footing for his comments most of the time.
Venoco about to start.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:05 pmLINE – asked not to webcast. That stinks.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:06 pmEXXID up in 23 minutes. KOG not snorting coffee so much now…
February 17th, 2010 at 1:08 pmJB – not quite clear to me if you have an opinion of whether it goes higher in the near term but I did vote!
February 17th, 2010 at 1:10 pmz- my take on the dollar is fundamentally I can’t conceive why it isn’t a lot lower. However, it is the ultimate super tanker hard to make it change directions on a dime. For now the direction is up and until it rolls over I wouldn’t assume it is going in the other direction.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:10 pmVenoco I think also asked not to be broadcast. Looking forward to EXXID. Was thinking he could shed some light (maybe a glint) on the logs they have in hand now and what the new bit of hole, think its down to 29,100 looked like. Don’t think they have any fluid samples just yet, last test as I understand it, the RFT.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:11 pmZ – you still liking LINE?
February 17th, 2010 at 1:13 pmGEOI: Cheap, obscure, and presenting at Enercom shortly after ATPG.
http://www.georesourcesinc.com/PDF/ProfileEnercom021710.pdf
Know it?
February 17th, 2010 at 1:14 pmSeem to have top ticked the NFX and if it falls back to $50 again before the minutes are out I just may do it again. That was not a bad quarter and if analysts can’t figure out that the spending is tied to the strong cash flow afforded by $6.50 gas and $108 oil and higher production that is already built into the front half of the year via delayed well hookups and the abatement of curtailments and then through the deepwater development projects and an acceleration of their international ops and that that will allow them to beat estimates all year long, quarter after quarter, well, I just can’t help them.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:17 pmIsle – I still own it and plan to for as long as I see interest rates staying low. When rates turn higher I’ll probably look to one that has more leverage to higher commodity prices as LINE is pretty hedged out. That assumes I’m correct in my thinking that 2011 will be the year where prices average north of $90 oil and $7 natural gas.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:20 pmelijah — if you don’t need liquidity, GEOI is a great little one to have in your energy portfolio. You’re in Houston, right? You should stumble on up toward the Woodlands and meet with the CEO. A more “down-earth-guy,” you will never meet. The Anti-Aubry, if you will. But, boy, does Frank know how to create “shareholder value.”
February 17th, 2010 at 1:22 pmJeremy Grantham’s, GMO staring a position in ATPG. Small for them but big enough to put them into the top 20. My experience with Jeremy’s shop is that the fundie’s are pretty well in hand before they go there.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:24 pmSunshine – did you play that one on NFX?
February 17th, 2010 at 1:24 pmThanks BOP. If one believes the powerpoint they are at a 35% discount to NAV. Only four second tier firms in coverage, so Enercom will give them something to talk about. Thanks again for the people color. It is what I was hunting.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:28 pmEli – thanks for the reminder, that’s on my list of todo’s today, a shelf position I’ve been meaning to add this year. Will be doing options first, March’s.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:29 pmEXXID call started.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:30 pmNO 🙂
February 17th, 2010 at 1:36 pmDo you want me to tell you how to change your call sign back?
February 17th, 2010 at 1:37 pmYou’re smiling because you missed a 2 hour, 45% gain? Hmmm.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:38 pmEXXID – not hearing anything new.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:39 pmBOP or Reef – do you recall if we have 4 or 6 sands now at DJ?
February 17th, 2010 at 1:43 pmEXXID — no. Nothing new. But love hearing the story. The geology lesson herer is just a complete game-changer. When Schiller talks about what we all “used to believe,” he is talking about my generation of geo-scientists. So, this stuff is just fabulous. Just like the Bakken defied previous geologic mental models (“oil from SHALE?”). This stuff is just a lot of fun… so much to learn. And you get to make $$ too!
February 17th, 2010 at 1:44 pmDavy Jones TD’d at 29,112 feet
Doing a well clean out now. Then will run SLB’s XFT – Extreme Formation Tester. Said he gives it a 50/50 chance of recovering a fluid sample (due to the depth, pressure, heat), just difficult.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:47 pmSchiller is trying to tell you that DJ is going to be a very productive well. Just listen to his geology lesson. There were a lot of little organic stuff that was deposited there, turned to oil, then gas and acid. Preserved porosity and is very organic rich. DJ should be nice.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:51 pmZ – you going to listen to GMXR? any commentary appreciated…
February 17th, 2010 at 1:52 pmRe 106 – agreed, very good lesson.
Will spud the offset Davy Jones well in maybe 6 to 8 weeks.
BOP – as I have it, the discovery well, due to smaller tubing size will be a 30 to 40 MM/d producer 8/8ths. Then you have 9 or 10 development wells to start, each designed for 100 MM/d.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:53 pm1520 – yep, plan to. Don’t own it now but may again sometime soon.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:54 pmBEXP just itching to break on higher, another good day on volume for this time of day, up 2%+ vs a red to flat at best group.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:55 pm#111 – thanks – i own it and am debating my next move. I can’t listen to the webcast.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:57 pmz — 110 correct. That is why the development wells will cost about 25-28% more than this initial DJ well… they will start with 36” diameter casing. That is a heck of a big hole to drill, a lot of pipe to run, and a lot of steel to buy. But, bottom line, should pay out quickly with those sort of daily production rates. Another game-changer, for shore.
February 17th, 2010 at 1:58 pmGMXR Notes:
New wells are 50% higher IPs than year ago, probably a function of learning curve and of drilling more in the core.
3 rig program
FOMC out – talk of asset sales.
February 17th, 2010 at 2:02 pmFed officials mull 25 basis points discount rate rise.
February 17th, 2010 at 2:06 pmGMXR –
Reserves – 53 of 100 Bcf writedown, prudent to not count non-operated PUD locations. Calling it a non-event.
They got not Haynesville PUD locations due to low gas prices, based on their average well size. The newer wells metrics were good enough that they could have booked proven undeveloped locations even at the low gas price ($3.86), but not the average well.
Spud to sales are down to low 60 day range.
Spud to TD is in the 20 range. That’s good and similar to other operators.
They have 3 of their 4 HP flexrigs running now.
TEXW – Do you use those guys? Have been thinking of tracking HP closer.
February 17th, 2010 at 2:08 pmRe 116 – discount window is not a big factor, read a story on how its not much used these days, will see if I can find. I think they mentioned this before, a couple of weeks back, right?
February 17th, 2010 at 2:10 pmHere’s that article:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/discount-rate-move-not-a-quicker-tightening-signal-2010-02-10?dist=afterbell
February 17th, 2010 at 2:10 pmGMXR – saying there is a market for the flexrigs at this point and they may sublet their 4th rig.
February 17th, 2010 at 2:12 pmYes agree Z and its factored in anyway I think that they could do this at anytime.
Gold falling, oil rising – not quite sure which one is leading the way.
February 17th, 2010 at 2:12 pmFrom that 2/10 article:
Former Fed governor Laurence Meyer said last month that the Fed was close to raising the discount rate.
He predicted that the Fed would not move the rate without an initial signal from Bernanke precisely because the market might misinterpret the move.
Even with a higher discount rate, Meyer doesn’t see the Fed tightening until 2011.
One reason the Fed wants to increase the discount rate well before it feels the need to tighten monetary policy is that the low discount rate has allowed something of a “carry trade” for banks, Meyer said. Banks have been able to bypass the market and borrow at the discount rate and then arbitrage into higher paying liquid assets.
February 17th, 2010 at 2:13 pm#120 – interesting.
February 17th, 2010 at 2:13 pmNicky – Looking more bullish post notes
GMXR
$200 mm spend (flat spend)
February 17th, 2010 at 2:15 pm13.5 Bcfe (check this #–) for 2009 with an expectation 17.5 Bcfe for 2010.
GS and XLF are red Z. For now we are still in a consolidation pattern but….
February 17th, 2010 at 2:22 pmNicky – yeah, pretty touchy market, dollar stronger after FOMC notes.
February 17th, 2010 at 2:24 pmDJ- Four Sands by my count… me thinks the XFT gets stuck 🙁
February 17th, 2010 at 2:33 pmReef – that a hunch based on timing or something else? Was wondering as I flipped through the cartoons on the sand as I saw one with 4 perforations, another with 6. I recalled 4.
February 17th, 2010 at 2:35 pm#76 further comment on MLPs not increasing production on a per-share basis: slide 6 on LINE’s presentation would dictate acquiring assets, not increasing distributions, given the large margins available in the acq. market.
February 17th, 2010 at 2:35 pmRE: #125, #126, to add to the mixture…$indu (cash Dow) and $ndx (nasdaq 100) back on P&F buy signals… four indexes now on buy signals $spx, $rut, $ndx, $indu…
EXXID testing the intraday low now…
RE: #88 Zman, thank you for your vote…
February 17th, 2010 at 2:37 pmOil up $0.33 cents on the close after the run we’ve had and with the dollar up a full percent. Very odd. Gold not really buying it either, only down $5 but I find easier to fathom than the oil move. Could be the distillates expectation is not calling for a big enough drawdown or that gasoline demand should bounce back post storms and that build is too big. Some traders are better that way as RBOB is up a percent itself.
February 17th, 2010 at 2:38 pmRMD – that is their stated plan and with distribution coverage tight by their own historical standards and all the production hedged through I think 2013 you can really forget about anything but a token nudge higher to the distribution rate. On the flipside, they have been very good at buying properties low and selling high.
February 17th, 2010 at 2:39 pmContemplating selling my remaining BEXP FEB position later today and swapping the proceeds into doubling up my WLL March position. Just cheaper and I still have BEXP exposure, just not as much at these steep valuations. If it rolls lower into a sort of angled up trading range (higher low than the old $13 one, I may go to an overweight there again waiting on well news).
February 17th, 2010 at 2:42 pmexxid is down .. i thought they had a good presentation
February 17th, 2010 at 2:45 pmNatgas went on a relative strength sell signal vs. oil today…
EXXID…did anyone hear anything in the EXXID call that would make me not want to look for the right spot to buy down here?
February 17th, 2010 at 2:46 pmI think gold is waiting to see if the dollar breaks significantly above 80.50 or fails to make a new high before breaking down.
If the dollar cannot make a new high I think the gold bulls come back in force as the breakout above the bearish flag will hold and alleviate selling pressure.
February 17th, 2010 at 2:47 pmJerome – re EXXID – nothing in the press release but as Reef points out they have tripped out of the hole to clean it, then will run the tool that will give them pressure and sample fluid data. Schiller put the odds of that working at a coin toss. As Reef said, it could get stuck. Stuck is not the end of the world, it’s just very expensive and delays things and can generally cause lots of headaches and some selling in the shares depending on how stuck we’re talking about. They can try to jar it free or they can do other things (dunno, maybe sidetrack around it but not sure if it got stuck very low in the hole how much of an option that is at this depth. Don’t know how big that tool is, lots of them are pretty tall, expensive deals. Could you ream it out Reef? Sort of doubt it.
February 17th, 2010 at 3:01 pmJerome – thanks for the NG vs oil thought. If you don’t see a 200 Bcf + withdrawal tomorrow, it will become apparent in the price of gas as well. I’m at 210 to 220. 215 puts us at the 2 Tcf mark. Next week should be a pretty good sized draw and I see no reason to think we won’t come in around the 1.5 Tcf trough level which should be OK for gas this year.
February 17th, 2010 at 3:03 pmI want to see a small sharp move up from here to complete v. It may take until early tomorrow.
February 17th, 2010 at 3:03 pmRe: #137, thanks Zman, I’m thinking I’ll take at least some add’l risk on that…
February 17th, 2010 at 3:06 pmInteresting to see HAL and SLB flat but other service working higher now, especially HP, WFT. Guessing WFT could really use those Iraqi dollars mentioned in the post and HP is getting some play off Enercom comments.
February 17th, 2010 at 3:07 pmre 139 – that was indices. But oil looks in the same place to me. One more push up to finish the move. Maybe the API does that.
February 17th, 2010 at 3:08 pmTom – HK just announcing their call for 4Q for next week, so it seems they will have one. I don’t think they have much in the way of earth shattering news unless they alter guidance or surprise people with early comments in the oily EFS Zavala county test. Really don’t see that happening. Best thing they could announce is a monetizaton and for that prospect and for the fact that its been overly beaten down I will take some March calls, small, in addition to the common I already hold. My Feb calls here are toast.
February 17th, 2010 at 3:11 pmJerome – Could I trouble you for a read on HK?
February 17th, 2010 at 3:13 pmZ, re DJ, what’s the point of this testing, particularly if there is a risk of fouling the hole? Why not just stick a straw in that milkshake and start slurping it up?
February 17th, 2010 at 3:14 pmI just added a small amount to KOG..
February 17th, 2010 at 3:19 pmAAA – interesting question. Reserves woudl be the short answer. Get fluid in hand with logs, and all the other data and you can book reserves. Also, as I understand it, they want a better understanding of fluid characteristics before the design their development program. Not everyone would do it this way. There is probably a financial angle to it too as logs are one thing but fluids are just short of proof. Get that in hand and you can book reserves, along with perm and porosity and you have higher stock prices all around from which to float deals (thinking MMR more than EXXID on that).
February 17th, 2010 at 3:19 pmWLL apparently not webcasting from Enercom.
ATPG on just after the close. Stock stuck all day.
February 17th, 2010 at 3:22 pmJB #135 — hope you followed thru there. I could hear of no reason for EXXID to be down, following Schiller’s presentation. Just the Push-Me / Pull-Yous of this current market environment, imho.
February 17th, 2010 at 3:35 pmMMR and PXP now up, EXXID down. Go figure.
February 17th, 2010 at 3:36 pmWLL trying to go out at HOD.
CFPS 2009: $9.92 7.3x
February 17th, 2010 at 3:36 pmCFPS 2010: $15.79 4.6x … pretty cheap for the potential here and the CF growth.
Re 149, 150. Yep, market noise.
Fair warning on the BEXP Feb calls.
February 17th, 2010 at 3:37 pmRE:#144 HK…dailing down intraday, HK looks good today…HK closed a gap higher this morning but bounced and has been holding up all day…but HK is currently still on a P&F sell signal in o’s, currently trading a bit weaker than others, and trading below P&F trendline resistance, so we need to at least get HK back into x’s on a print of $24…if you check out the daily chart you can see that HK has a guantlet of moving avg resistance at about $24, so a break above this would be material…because of HK’s huge swings, I can easily see it testing channel line and P&F trendline resistance at $26, if the mkt is supportive and we get back into x’s…
February 17th, 2010 at 3:39 pmThis is from Yahoo message board from person who is at conference……AT63 Flow update & Telemark production 17-Feb-10 02:09 pm The 10.7mboe/d is from the cleanup of E3 (24.5′ net oil) & E4 (39.6′ net oil). E6 (50.3′ net oil) has not been flow tested.
E3 & E4 are to be produced together E6 will not be produced at this time so more production can come from Mirage & Morgus. E3 & E4 have what is termed a “Smart Completion” – Individual hydraulically operated openings so each can be controlled separately, 1 open 1 closed, both open, 1 1/2 open etc, to manage the individual pays for best performance.
E6 has a mechanical completion so it is not planned to be opened until E3&E4 start to diminish.
The flow was right within their targeted range so no reserve updates at this time, LT 6+ month production rates can indicate differences in reserve.
All 4 wells will be completed as planned, contracts preclude postponing Morgus#2. Once Titan hits max production, more production will be shut-in to maximize production from Mirage & Morgus – the sooner these are drained the sooner Titan can be relocated.
Upgrading Titan to the downstream max of 35Mboe/d & 75MMcf/day is possible (actually designed for 100MMcf/day – just needs a 2nd set of compressors).
MinDOC-II is not off the table either if oil rises ($100/bbl) and additional reserves are found or upgraded.
“If the economics are present to accelerate we will surely do” – ‘IF’ the biggest word in the dictionary, so whether it makes more sense to upgrade Titan or build another is purely based on future situations not current production profile or Oil price. Another factor that could make them go with MinDOC-II is if Vito ends up being tied back to Titan. It was also stated that it would be no problem to increase well beyond 35Mboe/d (max of 16 mile tieback), stated if the project needed it a 2nd tieback would be used as Shell’s Mars pipeline reportedly has plenty of space.
February 17th, 2010 at 3:41 pmRE: #149, thanks BOP…
February 17th, 2010 at 3:42 pmThanks JB. Was looking at those MA’s when I asked. I don’t see a catalyst to drive it higher other than the undue (my word) punishment it has taken for 40%ish growth that will see beat after beat as the quarters come out throughout the year. I say no catalyst in the form of well results … but if they get something sold or VPP’d then I think it jumps at least to $26+.
February 17th, 2010 at 3:43 pmThanks for the update West, planning on listening to their presentation.
February 17th, 2010 at 3:45 pmTonight we have API
estimates are:
crude up 1.6 mm bbs
gaso up 1.5
dist down 1.5
Tomorrow we have claims, PPI, Philly Fed, and Leading indicators along with both the oil and gas inventories.
February 17th, 2010 at 3:50 pmDJ- XFT- so when that thing gets stuck, we can push it to bottom and pay a big fee ($1MM???) to SLB, or we can spend about 300k a day for the rig to fish this bad boy out.
February 17th, 2010 at 3:50 pmTAT- Transatlantic Petroleum…why does TBP own 2,000,000 shares? Even more strange, why does MSD(Michael Dell) own about 30,000,000???
February 17th, 2010 at 3:52 pmRe TAT – don’t know reading his book now. As far as Michael goes, because he has a lot of cash, doesn’t need more of his own stock and missed out on the APPL ride.
February 17th, 2010 at 3:58 pm160- Answer my own question. The chairman of TAT is from Amarillo, Malone Mitchell also a OSU grad….
February 17th, 2010 at 3:59 pmReef – TAT – Thanks for getting me started. So not my area. Closest I get to Turkey is PXD. Now I have something else to read about at night, great, thanks a lot.
Beerthirty.
February 17th, 2010 at 4:01 pmReef, My understanding is that both were investors in Malone Mitchell III’s Riata that was sold to Tom Ward and became Sandridge.
February 17th, 2010 at 4:06 pmchk out
stunning loss
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chesapeake-Energy-Corporation-bw-540916163.html?x=0
February 17th, 2010 at 4:06 pmBill – you know it’s non cash. That’s 77 cents vs $0.70 expected. EBITDA is $1.256 B vs $1.118 B expected.
February 17th, 2010 at 4:11 pmreef — a guy we both know is ALL OVER tat. He thinks MM walks on water. Thing is, he probably does… but it’s unclear if he can in Turkey. You don’t just roll into someone else’s country and assume you can understand the rules and regs well enough to duplicate domestic success. Anyway, have a couple of people looking that one up and down. No doubt, MM is very very good at what he does.
February 17th, 2010 at 4:14 pmFound the link to WLL presentation, 15 minutes out.
http://www.investorcalendar.com/IC/CEPage.asp?ID=155181&CID=
February 17th, 2010 at 4:17 pmhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amgjc0lZEYjo&pos=1
The next shoe to drop will be when they try to sell those assets back to the market and realize they can’t sell them at all, or at least without demonstrating the value of all the toxic assets on the balance sheets of the financials. Good thing they don’t have to really mark-to-market anymore and they can mark-to-myth.
February 17th, 2010 at 4:27 pmLINE slides from today’s presentation up on their website
http://tiny.cc/dXJEc
February 17th, 2010 at 4:31 pmVTZ gold selling off again after the close. I think oil joins it tomorrow.
February 17th, 2010 at 4:31 pmWhat does the $11B impairment from CHK mean?
February 17th, 2010 at 4:32 pmCould be Nicky. Dollar needs to make a new high then.
RE 169 one more time: If they can’t sell those assets with that silly PPIP that takes away a tonne of the downside and gives most of the upside then how do they expect them to sell for equal risk.
February 17th, 2010 at 4:35 pmre 172, have not yet looked, would assume it’s price based revision along with the five year rule on PUDs going into effect. It means that at the SEC’s gas price, those reserves are not economic. Flows through the income statement to the balance sheet but is non cash. The reserves are still there, just not according to the new rules.
February 17th, 2010 at 4:36 pmAPI must have come in slightly bearish side.
February 17th, 2010 at 4:39 pmWLL – doing a better than usual job with their presentation explaining why they get the big wells they do in Sanish vs Parshall vs everything else, talking about their dolomitic sandstone interbedded in the m. Bakken at Sanish.
February 17th, 2010 at 4:42 pmAPI
Crude: Down 63 m barrels
Gasoline: Up 1.428 mm
Distillates: Up 1.283 mm
API has been directionally right of late. Crude down would likely be a combination of higher utilization and lower imports, have not seen how API saw these for this report though.
February 17th, 2010 at 4:58 pmGasoline in line is fine
Distillate #, this gave oil a bit of a slip at the release but not a big reaction overall.
I’ll have WLL presentation notes in tomorrow’s post.
February 17th, 2010 at 4:58 pmGold: From breifing.com
DJ reports the International Monetary Fund said it will soon begin selling to the market the remaining 191.3 metric tons of gold it has slated for release, though the sales will be conducted in phases to avoid disrupting markets. The sale of gold, currently worth nearly $6.9 billion, will begin “shortly,” the fund said in a brief statement. “In accordance with the priority of avoiding disruption of the gold market, the on-market sales will be conducted in a phased manner over time,” the IMF said. The IMF noted that central banks in Europe have said they can accommodate the fund’s gold as part of their scheduled sales in the Central Bank Gold Agreement. The IMF board approved sales of 403.3 metric tons of gold in September to create a more stable income model and boost support for low-income countries. About 212 metric tons have already been sold off-market to central banks of India, Mauritius and Sri Lanka. The IMF didn’t rule out further off-market sales, which would reduce the amount sold to the market.
February 17th, 2010 at 5:14 pmOf course it’s going to be off market… as if China is going to pass on 200 tons of gold. China succeeded in talking gold down for this exact purpose.
February 17th, 2010 at 7:29 pmIf China pays more than India, the market is going to go berserk.
February 17th, 2010 at 7:31 pmYou look right now Nicky.
February 17th, 2010 at 7:36 pmcrown heritage stair parts
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January 25th, 2015 at 5:59 pm