08
Jan
Less Jobs Friday
Market Sentiment Watch: All eyes on payrolls which came in at -85,000 vs an expectation range of -8,000. The unemployment rate came in at 10.0% vs 10.1% expected. Futures are trading only slightly lower on the data. Goldman Sachs out with an upgrade of (HAL) will give me a nice opportunity to sell my higher strike Jan calls today.
In Today's Post:
- Holdings Watch
- Commodity Watch
- Natural Gas Storage Review
- Stuff We Care About Today - Drybulk thoughts
- Odds & Ends
Holdings Watch
- $10KP II:
- $31,800
- 61% Cash
- The Current View listing on the Holdings Tab is updated.
- I will fully update the $10KP II tab on Monday as per usual.
- $31,800
- Yesterday's Trades:
- Added (20) BEXP $15 January Calls for $0.40 which is my average cost in the position, with the stock at $14.65.
- BEXP – added (30) more BEXP $15 calls for 0.35 with the stock at 14.50. This is a high risk trade at this point. I now have 100 calls at a little under 40 cents average cost. These could easily go to zero as they expire next week. If it does it certainly won’t kill me as its $3000 from here to $0. They should have more news this month and possibly next week.
Commodity Watch
Crude oil fell $0.52 to close at $82.66 yesterday on dollar strength and simple profit taking after a recent strong run. The weather forecast for next week shows markedly more moderate weather, still cold, but not nearly the record breaking cold we have been seeing in the U.S. This morning crude is trading off 30 cents.
- Why Is Oil Up This High? Question prompted by Pack last night and I think its a good one. My thoughts on the matter:
- The U.S. equity market has had a big run, same drivers help crude (right or wrong).
- It's cold, very cold, not just in the U.S. but in Europe and Asia.
- Global oil demand is rising, again, not in the U.S. but in the Middle East, China, India, parts of South America.
- OPEC is known to be severely cheating on their quotas put in place at the end of 2008 AND refiners in the U.S. have greatly curtailed throughput AND this has NOT led to a continued rally in U.S. crude storage. This gets back to crude being absorbed in other, faster growing parts of the globe.
- Near term data in the U.S. doesn't really support the move over $80 but traders think the data will turn soon and the Strip is looking through the trough.
Natural gas gave back half of the prior day's gain falling $0.20 to close at $5.81 yesterday after the EIA reported an "in line" storage withdrawal (see below). This morning gas is trading off a dime on the moderating weather forecast for next week.
Natural Gas Storage Review
ZComment: Ok, the holiday-light numbers are now out of the way; bring on the big Kahuna withdrawals, at least for the next two weeks. A lot of folks, myself included, are looking for the next two reports to top 200 Bcf, with the next one especially scoring a withdrawal in the mid 200s.
- The CPC put degree days at 239 last week which gave us yesterday's 153 Bcf number.
- Recall that for the week ended December 12th, HDDs were 232 and we got a withdrawal of 207 Bcf.
- Then note that the degree day forecast for this week was a season high 263 HDDs and I suspect that that number will be higher when finalized next Monday.
- Next week the mercury should moderate slightly but still, without the impact of a holiday in the week, we should top 200 Bcf for the week of the 15th.
- After that, the long range forecast continues to show cold.
On to the gas graphs ... not a lot to point out except the downward kinks in graphs B and C
Stuff We Care About Today
Dry Bulk Multiples
- Just carrying through with my thesis that it's a good idea to check in on each of sectors at the beginning of the year.
- As you can see from the following table, the names still appear cheap on forward earnings but you'll also not that the earning trend remains negative for many.
- Freight rates just completed a large rally and pull back sequence. See link here.
- "A recovery in global growth provides a favorable backdrop for the shipping sector," ~ Goldman in a piece yesterday. Give that one the most obvious statement of the decade to date award. It's the recovery that uncertain, not that relationship.
- So Goldman continues with ~ "We reiterate our positive view on the shipping sector, which is well leveraged to a global growth recovery forecast by Goldman Sachs ECS Research,"
- As always, the buzzword here will be China. China needs more coal due to weather, China needs more coal to make steel, and to send more goods (now including autos) overseas, etc.
- Finally, new build ship orders are starting to pick up, in the wake of months of cancellations.
- The stocks remain beaten down and bear closer observation than I gave them in 2009.
- The (SEA) ETF would seem to indicate that there is increasing interest in the group again as it tries to break out of a base on the daily chart.
- (SEA) hasn't been around all that long (see components here) but the chart looks very similar to one of the stronger names in the group DSX.
Who Does What In The Group?
- In short, I'm going to watch them closer, with a preference for the lower debt, more reputable names in the group like DSX and NM ---. I may also look into adding some Asian names in this space.
Pritchard Conference Day 3 (all times EST)
- Link to Presentations
- EXXI at 11:25
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch:
- HAL - Goldman Sachs ups to Buy, adds to Conviction Buy List
- HP and CAM cut to Neutral at Goldman
- NBR raised to Neutral at Goldman
- BAS cut to Sell at Goldman
- ESV raised to Outperform at Opco
- CLNE cut to market perform at Northland Secs.
- FST price target bumped $3 to $28 at Barclays.
Product Update Watch: External tankless water heater. No hot water today. Cause 11 degrees outside. Brilliant design that one.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:07 amCrude and natural gas rolling over a bit, crude was within a hair of even earlier, now off 75 cents, NG down 16 cents as it oscillates in the mid to high $5s.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:15 amSorry to hear that….I was thinking ’bout getting one. Here in chi-town we pass 11 degrees on the way to getting cold.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:17 amSorry for the little ones, the adults can suffer a little while.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:17 amZ & Packman
regarding your exchange yesterday about $100 crude.
Just wanna point out that even has the dollar index was bouncing recently, commodities like wheat, crude, silver were all creeping up. Gold maybe not but it just had a moonshot.
I don’t think it is driven by a perception of economic strength, but rather a symptom of the decay of most fiat currencies. So the dollar can rise against other bits of paper & commodities can rise (in $) at the same time. Of course, people are still earning salaries in fiat confetti, so their spending power (measured in commodities) is shrinking.
Combine that with the mega-debt load and I would have to think that what is left of “the economy” will crack at a lower crude price than in the last go round. But how will we know that it cracks when it is limping along (at best) to start with?
January 8th, 2010 at 9:18 amThe BCS Bowl was painful to watch… back in a sec….
January 8th, 2010 at 9:19 amHow you cut the federal budget 101:
EPA tightening regulations on smog. Of the 675 monitored counties in the U.S., 650 don’t meet the new regulations. If your county can’t meet the new regulations, various forms of federal funding will be choked back (pun intended).
January 8th, 2010 at 9:19 amSomeone commented last night that the standard deviation of error in the payrolls survey is about 100,000. LoL.
Thanks Dman, good points.
Re water heater. Kids like it = no baths. And I’m eying the external windshield that someone left in a box as a potential culprit.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:23 amhttps://www.seeuthere.com/ui/18/182354/gec2010agenda.pdf
I wish I was in Florida right now.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:25 amGreatly appreciated jat.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:28 amAlthough a little early in the morning. Temp outside is 72 degrees in Maui.
Aloha one and all.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:29 amAddendum to #5.
Due to population driven demand growth outside Western economies, crude can creep up even without any real economic “strength”. But it does need stability, so another bout of deflation chaos would certainly drag crude down & would be a terrific buying opportunity.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:29 amFrom Cross-Asset Strategist #2
Payrolls fell 85K last month, a worse outcome than the unchanged number that the consensus was looking for. Revisions were minor, so this number was 86k below consensus. Taken by itself, this would be a modest miss.
However, both the average work week and aggregate hours worked were unchanged, with no revisions. Adding these to the mix, we would characterize the report as a slight miss. This report is supportive of our view of a modestly growing economy putting in a sub-par recovery.
The market action as of this writing is consistent with a slight miss. S&P futures are down about 5-6 points, and 10-year Treasury yields are down about 2-3 basis points. As such, there’s nothing abnormal we see about the market response to the number.
In credit, spreads are a touch wider this morning, but as a function of the drop in Treasury yields, not from selling of credit. That means, while stocks may hit an air pocket, the credit bull market seems poised to continue.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:31 ampicked up some EOG I’ve been wanting on a pullback….
January 8th, 2010 at 9:32 amFor me, the only “surprise” in the payroll report was that anyone was looking for a positive number. That said, I am surprised that Nov’s number was revised from -11k to +4k. With that revision, it puts the number within range of what the Bloomberg consensus was calling for. MarketWatch? Not so much.
TechTrader is 55/45 SHORT today… but with bad color (so not a reliable call).
HeadTrader calls for buying the opening sell-off.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:33 amThanks to Goldman for the HAL upgrade, good timing guys.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:34 amon drybulk
one name i like is nm.. im not in it at the moment but their avg rates will be about 5 k higher to 30 k as they signed some new long term contracts.
They are also buying new capes cheaply with cheap prf conv stock
Note your multiples on ebitda 10.9 x for 2009 and 6.1x for 2010. The ceo owns a chunk of stock.
Cantor is also behind the name, with a buy rating and ,i think, an 8 dollar target
The name is more levered than another favorite dsx
January 8th, 2010 at 9:34 amHERO — C.K. Cooper initiates HERO with a Buy and price target of $7, as they note the co is focused on cutting costs, increasing utilization, expanding internationally both with its liftboats and jackups, and repaying its debt. Firm expects negative earnings for 2009-2011 and until the jackup market rebounds, the co faces a tough period.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:35 am9 i see pxp,chk,hk & sd are on the list.
Means we should see some news before then
January 8th, 2010 at 9:36 amVTZ if you are out there somewhere in the frozen wastes 🙂
What do you think of the chances of a breakout in silver in the not-to-distant future?
January 8th, 2010 at 9:37 am#11 – I’ll take Maui over anywhere this morning.
Saw some talk about POT in the posts from yesterday – big development for all the ferts was the signing of the chinese supply contract in the last week or so. Basically sets a floor price for all price negotiations in 2010 at about $350 a ton for potash. Obviously POT has reacted positively. That $120 mark was resistance in my mind. I had a bunch of calls sold there that i had written a couple of times. I am having a big internal debate about whether to roll them out longer or just take the profit and run.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:37 amit was 17 this am in Fort Worth…
January 8th, 2010 at 9:45 amI see TS is doing one on ones only at the GS energy conference. It’s a good bet they benefit from Chinese pipe being further taxed.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:47 amStart the Year off right, with an update from Cross Asset Class Strategist #2… been a while since the last reading assignment. But, this helps to fill in the bigger picture…
http://www.capmarkets.com/ViewFile.asp?ID1=335036&ID2=347956765&ssid=2&directory=11608&bm=0&filename=An_Unbelievable_Credit_Bull_Market_Spawns_Few_Believers_1-8-10.pdf
January 8th, 2010 at 9:48 am600 watt halogen work light, 1 foot from 3/4 inch brass fitting (full of ice no doubt) as the copper is wrapped, outside temp 13. Might be awhile on the hot water honey.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:48 amIOC at $80, tempting.
SWN FEB $55s back where I bought them. I don’t think the move in gas is going to completely reverse out soon based on a somewhat milder forecast next week, looking to add to those soon.
Will likely punt the HAL late day as it is a bright green point in an otherwise bright red field of stocks and those tend to gravitate higher.
Looking at EOG and WLL as adds and may join Bill in the ROSE calls.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:51 amOily Comment from TPH this am —
Top oily E&P picks (E&P $557) – Let’s review Top three. NBL still 2010 favorite with 38% upside to 3P NAV, cheap multiples (6.5x and 5.7x 2010-‘11e EBITDAX) with material exploration upside. CXO moves into 2nd with 31% 3P NAV upside, head-scratchingly cheap in-line multiples (7.4x and 5.7x for 2010-‘11e) given > 20% oily growth. PXD now 3rd with 25-30% 3P NAV upside when paying for Eagle Ford (7.7x & 6.4x EBITDAX). We’re still not officially giving PXD any Eagle Ford or Barnett love…yet.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:53 amBill – note the format is panels and not single company presentations. May get news, maybe not from those companies. I expect something relatively soon out of the HK.
HAL approaching $34.
Thanks for the TPH comments, all solid, oily names, feels a little late to the party on the PXD which I like, I do think those guys are getting credit now for the EFS, big run there.
Head Trader looking pretty right right now.
January 8th, 2010 at 10:01 amEmailed in question:
I am pretty bearish ST right now on natty E&P. Just feel like the minute the weather turns we are in for 10-15% hit. Feel like trimming / shorting but scared on that upcoming withdrawal next week. Any thoughts?
My thoughts:
I think we could see your hit. I think the next two storage numbers will be 200+ but so do most folks. So it warms slightly while you loose 400 Bcf from storage and the YoY surplus contracts. I’m thinking the hit may come but that it will be very swift as cold returns to the system (at least that’s what I’m gleaning from Bastardi).
January 8th, 2010 at 10:03 am#28 — HeadTrader thanks you for your kudos. He is currently taking applications for his Fan Club. His ego was severely bruised when his application to a matchmaker service was turned down. Seems the Holidays were filled with a lot of Desk Cheer and baskets from Harry&David, this year.
http://beautifulpeople.com/
http://www.cnn.com/2010/LIVING/personal/01/04/dating.site.overweight/index.html
January 8th, 2010 at 10:07 amBakken Multiples
WLL – Despite the run:
EV / 2010 EBITDA at 5.3x
P/ 2010 CFPS at 4.9x
CLR
EV / 2010 EBITDA at 13.3x
P/ 2010 CFPS at 12.7x
NOG
EV / 2010 EBITDA at 9.5x
P/ 2010 CFPS at 11x
BEXP
EV / 2010 EBITDA at 16.7x
P/ 2010 CFPS at 16.2x
AEZ
EV / 2010 EBITDA = negative
P/ 2010 CFPS at 1,587x
KOG
EV / 2010 EBITDA at 10.5x
January 8th, 2010 at 10:17 amP/ 2010 CFPS at 9.8x
Re 30. Hey I’m a fan … I’ll see if maybe my SIL isn’t busy this weekend.
January 8th, 2010 at 10:19 amI’m signing this:
http://www.pickensplan.com/petition/
January 8th, 2010 at 10:20 amSent from T Boone earlier:
Our economy is bleeding billions for foreign oil — much of it from countries that don’t like us. That’s billions we should use to create American jobs.
We’ve waited patiently while Congress debated the stimulus package and then healthcare reform. While discussion of our dangerous dependence on foreign oil was put on the backburner, we continued to import nearly two-thirds of the oil we use.
We can’t wait any longer.
President Obama and the 111th Congress can break the cycle of foreign oil dependence by immediately enacting an energy plan that reduces our foreign oil dependence by at least 30% within ten years. Delaying any further means tacit support for continuing America’s addiction to foreign oil.
Most of the oil we import is used as a transportation fuel — cars, trucks, aircraft, boats and trains. About one barrel out of every five is used as diesel fuel to power heavy trucks, including 18-wheelers.
The only domestic fuel that is available to immediately reduce our dependence on foreign oil is natural gas. Natural gas is cheaper than diesel fuel. Natural gas is cleaner than diesel. It’s abundant. And it’s ours.
The time to act is now and the NAT GAS Act (H.R. 1835 and S. 1408) is the best tool we’ve had in decades to reduce our dependence on foreign oil.
January 8th, 2010 at 10:20 amYikes. If I violate ZEB code of conduct, wiil it be immediate removal or do I have a second chance?
January 8th, 2010 at 10:21 amRe 35 Huh? To what are you referring. I don’t recall removing anyone.
January 8th, 2010 at 10:22 am#36 — it’s not you, z… it’s the BeautifulPeople rule. They run a pretty tough site. Has HeadTrader all flustered.
January 8th, 2010 at 10:25 am#13 you won’t see this chart on MSNBC or CNBC
January 8th, 2010 at 10:27 amhttp://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/volcker/Labor%20Force%20Participation%20Rate.jpg
Milepost – can you explain what 38 means?
January 8th, 2010 at 10:28 amBOP…thx for the good humor in #30…that really made me laugh…
January 8th, 2010 at 10:29 amre:33…I signed it too…wrote my congressman and two senators earlier and asked them to support this bill and/or type legislation…congressman supports it and got off base responses from Cornyn and Hutchison…
January 8th, 2010 at 10:33 amIt’s a question. Maybe you need a hot shower.
January 8th, 2010 at 10:34 amFreezing Rain and possible snow forecasted for Orlando tomorrow. Ocala – sleet and snow.
January 8th, 2010 at 10:35 amRe 37. Ohhhhhh. Ya know there is an opportunity there.
Maybe Chubhub.com or something similar.
January 8th, 2010 at 10:35 amLook sort of average? Got your bar set pretty low? Then come on down to the Chubhub and we’ll fix you up with, um, something.
BOP-are you familiar with Prospect Capital-provides financing to energy companies, private and public-PSEC is the trading symbol, pays qtrly div consistantly, current yield about 13.8%.
S & P Investment grade.
http://www.prospectenergy.com/
Would appreciate your comments when you get a chance.
Thanks
January 8th, 2010 at 10:36 am#43 — maybe we should think about buying Orange Juice futures…
January 8th, 2010 at 10:36 amchoices #45 — not familiar. Thanks for the head’s up… will take a look.
January 8th, 2010 at 10:37 amDman – Silver will breakout at some point once gold starts rallying again and eventually outperform once it breaks through overhead support. The silver rally and the HUI rally will be the confirmations that another large bull rally will be on the way but I don’t foresee a silver rally leading gold. I see the strength in the HUI as an indication that the rally is not over at all and it actually held up better than gold price when it was falling.
I still love and will always love SLW as a great silver play and/or trading vehicle depending on where the price is at relative to the silver price.
I haven’t done much squiggly line watching because of the holidays so I can’t talk much about silver in terms of breakout levels etc.
Once I have an opinion on levels, I’ll post something.
January 8th, 2010 at 10:38 am#38 39…don’t think things are getting better when we have 5 year low in participation….more government ie taxpayer help likely coming…ouch…HOWEVER, I am positioned as a BULL..right now….BUT standing very near the exit door…chart from this site http://www.zerohedge.com/ well worth bookmarking….
January 8th, 2010 at 10:43 amThanks V.
January 8th, 2010 at 10:49 amZTRADE:
HAL – Added (15) Feb $35 Calls for $0.935 average, with the stock at $33.35. Will come out of my $33 Januaries either today or Monday most likely.
January 8th, 2010 at 10:50 amThanks Milepost.
January 8th, 2010 at 10:52 amRe: #48, it’s interesting that SLW has been a relative strength leader against silver futures for some time now…
January 8th, 2010 at 10:57 amBOP-hopefully, another quick question-have seen discussions, most recently from Morgan Stanley, that T-Bill, T-Bond interest rates are going to increase significantly in 2010-if so, what does this do to the private credit market, specifically corp bonds. Answer may be obvious would appreciate your views.
Thanks
January 8th, 2010 at 11:05 amram- – u are funny. liked hot shower comment!!!
January 8th, 2010 at 11:08 amexxi slides are up
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/pritch2/exxi/index.html
January 8th, 2010 at 11:11 amBill, Thanks for the update on NM. I held on through thin even after you warned us to get out of drybulk. I’m paying more attention to you now.
January 8th, 2010 at 11:11 amEXXI in 10 minutes
January 8th, 2010 at 11:11 amGroup starting to green a little.
NBR upgrade at GS looks a little late to me but makes sense given rigs. Name looks pretty expensive now but that changes if the rig count continues to bump up. Any thoughts there Jat?
January 8th, 2010 at 11:14 amSD…for folks still with SD, SD has “V” reversed off the lows, and recently started holding the 200 day SMA as support, I’d really like to see SD print $11, a three box reversal on the P&F chart from there would occur on a retrace to $9.50, this is an area of redundant support with a confluence of both 20 day and 50 day SMA at crossover support…SD has a difficult P&F chart to work with right now, but if you long term, stops below $9.50 make the most sense…
January 8th, 2010 at 11:16 amZTRADE:
ATW – Bought (5) ATW Feb $40 Calls (ATWBH) for $2.00. Stock has best long term earnings profile amongst the deepwater drillers and looks like its about to breakout of a 3 month base to my layman’s technical eye, following some of the larger names higher. Starting small as I didn’t grab it on the recent pullback.
January 8th, 2010 at 11:20 amJerome – when you get a chance would you look at that ATW chart? Thx.
January 8th, 2010 at 11:22 amty for the update on sd
i hope it holds 10 % and runs another 10 %
They usually have an operations update within 2 weeks of the new year.. I expect something soon
January 8th, 2010 at 11:25 amexxi moving up 2.74
January 8th, 2010 at 11:25 amEXXI call started.
January 8th, 2010 at 11:25 amgassy names are coming back strong
January 8th, 2010 at 11:27 amEXXI notes…
Shiller talking up his better knowledge on the reserves they just bought.
Production
January 8th, 2010 at 11:28 amcurrent 27,000 BOEpd
going to 30,000 BOEpd
PSEC… first impression… an awful lot of professionals on the payroll. And don’t like it when the CEO and one of the Senior Staff (IR, among other responsibilities) are married. In asset mngmt, your real assets are your people. But, can work sometimes.
Also, hate PE/mezz “energy investing” from NYC. Yorktown is the only one I’ve seen do it successfully over the long run.
As far as their investment portfolio… looks like an awful lot of cats and dogs. Not all energy either. Not all income-producing either. Will snoop around some more… not saying it won’t go up. We are still in the early stages of the overall bull mrkt (which should last 3-4 yrs) and a rising tide raises all boats.
It has a nice yield…
January 8th, 2010 at 11:29 amEXXI notes 2
Still have 3,600 BOEpd shut in from hurricanes, get that back on this quarter so run rate this quarter will be 30,000 boepd by q end.
…
January 8th, 2010 at 11:29 amRe: #62, ATW has an interesting chart, ATW perfected a “beartrap” with the recent X box reversal off the print below $34…looks like it’s making a third effort today at testing that tough area of resistance around $40…if it can get up there, ATW would complete a triple top breakout buy signal with a print of $41…
January 8th, 2010 at 11:32 amz — thx for the EXXI notes… stuck on a call. that 30k boe/d is higher than analysts are currently modeling, by the way
January 8th, 2010 at 11:33 amEXXI notes 3
Lot of areas that were previously thought to be salt have been reprocessed, sounds like quite a lot of opportunities.
Now talking ultra deep shelf. …
January 8th, 2010 at 11:34 amEXXI –
I’ve sat with this guy (same lunches with Hackett) when he was at Ocean. He did mention the whole “how long to get to production” mantra then. Very sharp. Makes sense he is on the Ultra deep shelf stuff now. Infranstructure is in place, but you have the same target sizes as you do in the deepwater but in the deepwater, you are 1 to 3 to even 5 years out after the discovery from first production.
January 8th, 2010 at 11:35 amEXXI – ultradeep
Davy Jones at 28,262 feet now, changing bottom hole assembly, planned TD at 29,000 feet. Need full set of logs, lot of sand, encouraged now.
Blackbeard – drilled to 33,000 feet, was still 1,500 feet short of the Wilcox.
May go drill the Blackbeard East – good set of slides from 17 to 22
January 8th, 2010 at 11:39 amSWN – S&P raises from Buy to Hold.
BOP – EXXI – take a look at slide 26, good way to show CF vs Capex for the next 11 wells to drill. Good to see they show the $90 mm cost but only a slight outrun of Cash flow as the tie in the recent wells and bring that hurricane impaired production back on line.
Said their revolver will go to $350 mm by month end.
I will be adding more EXXI up here.
January 8th, 2010 at 11:42 amgot caught on a call… got the last bit of the EXXI presentation. Sounds pretty darn strong. No mention of how they are going to allocate the additional CF??
January 8th, 2010 at 11:45 amlisting to the replay now…
January 8th, 2010 at 11:45 amZLT Trades
Sold All GMXR for 14.41, up 47%
Sold a piece of my KOG, at $2.55, up 146%
Bought EXXI at $2.74.
January 8th, 2010 at 11:49 amHAL working higher
January 8th, 2010 at 11:51 amBOP- $2.75 by friday achieved….
January 8th, 2010 at 12:06 pmReef – nice.
January 8th, 2010 at 12:08 pmWill be spending some time over the weekend on the CXPO.
January 8th, 2010 at 12:13 pmreef — you da man!! right beside you, guy.
Listened to the entire EXXI call. Heard what I wanted to hear. Hints about conservative development projects and optimism about the deep prospects. See EXXI has allocated 20% of capex to the deep wells. Two comments: 1) don’t want to see that percentage creep higher (will be watching for FY11 allocations) and 2) capex is underspending CF (and will allow for acqtns). Also heard that they expect to be able to pick up good properties (acqtns) over the next yr and a half, from bigger guys realigning their properties. THIS is what I wanted to hear… now, just have to see them do it.
Very positive call. They have planned the trade… now just need to see them trade the plan. I’ll be watching.
January 8th, 2010 at 12:13 pm82-very, very interesting
January 8th, 2010 at 12:14 pmReef – If HK pulls off good results at Red Hawk (and I suspect that well is at TD) then CXPO could get a quick pump.
January 8th, 2010 at 12:16 pmYes, when will HK release that news?
January 8th, 2010 at 12:20 pmRe HK – I’d bet early Feb at latest for an ops update. If not then, then with the 4Q results in late Feb.
January 8th, 2010 at 12:23 pmMarket out to lunch again, very quiet trading, feels like they have an upward bias though.
January 8th, 2010 at 12:24 pmTime to start thinking about MLP’s that will get to reinstate their suspended distributions due to price.
January 8th, 2010 at 12:27 pmPrice–todays Centerpoint East(Fay) is $8.02
January 8th, 2010 at 12:31 pmEagle Ford Joins Shale Elite
By LOUISE S. DURHAM
EXPLORER Correspondent
A still-fledgling shale gas play
appears to be on the cusp of snagging
a sizeable spot in the limelight alongside
U.S. shale gas heavyweights such as
the Haynesville, Marcellus, Barnett and
others.
The newbie lies in south Texas in the
Cretaceous Eagle Ford shale, which is
long known for sourcing hydrocarbons
to Austin Chalk fields as well as the
renowned East Texas field. The play
extends from near the Mexican border
outward to the east/northeast across
several counties.
It’s early in the drilling game, but so
far the shale appears to offer relatively
high well production rates and low
drilling costs – a combo essentially
guaranteed to warm the heart of any
operator.
This being Texas, there’s plenty of oil
and gas infrastructure in place, along
with large areas of ranch land available
for leasing from owners long
comfortable with – and knowledgeable
about – the industry.
In other words, this won’t be a repeat
of the earlier frenzied leasing activity in
the still-relatively new Jurassic
Haynesville shale play concentrated in
northwest Louisiana. As the hype
intensified there, landowners began
demanding – and receiving – lease
bonuses that soared into the
stratosphere in many instances.
Petrohawk Energy Corp., which has
hit significant home runs in the
Haynesville play, was first up to the plate
in the Eagle Ford play, where it now has
16 wells on production.
The company drilled the discovery
well – the STS-241 #1H – in the fall of
2008 in what would be christened
Hawkville Field. The horizontal well in
LaSalle County flowed 7.6 MMcf and
250 barrels of condensate per day from
the Eagle Ford.
Petrohawk validated the play when it
moved about 14 miles to the southwest
and drilled the Dora Martin #1-H.
In contrast to the discovery well, the
horizontally drilled Dora Martin tested
8.3 MMcf/d with no condensate, even
though completed at essentially the
same TVD of 11,500 feet.
‘Something Funky’
This difference in production makeup
is an intriguing aspect of the play.
The Hawkville, where Petrohawk
holds 216,000 net acres, is in a kind of
mini-basin, or natural topographic low,
containing high porosity and highresistivity
facies, and positioned
between the Edwards and the Sligo shelf
margins.
The field is characterized by a
downdip dry gas play in the southwest,
a mid-dip gas/condensate and an updip
oil play.
“There’s something funky going on,”
said AAPG member Dick Stoneburner,
executive vice president and COO at
Petrohawk. “There’s burial history or a lot
of things you can throw into the equation
on why there are different thermal
maturities at each end.
“We think it’s pretty clear it’s mainly a
function of burial history,” he said. “The
southwest end of the field at one part
was considerably deeper than today, but
it’s been uplifted.
“This is a plausible interpretation
based on the presence of the Chittim
arch, which is a prominent Laramide
feature,” Stoneburner said. “That would
have had the ability to affect that end of
the field and have it uplifted to the
present depth, so the theory has support
based on burial history and regional
tectonics.”
With regard to mineralogical makeup,
the Eagle Ford is a different breed of cat
from what you might expect in a shale.
Some samples contain as much as 70
percent calcite and a goodly bit of silica,
with average clay content tallying 11
percent, according to Stoneburner.
“It’s very brittle rock and not water
sensitive,” he said. “It has the perfect
mineralogical makeup for a shale gas
play.”
He noted that the Eagle Ford is so full
of gas and so permeable, the rock
actually falls apart as the gas is
liberated when a core is brought up to,
say, 15 pounds of pressure.
“We haven’t seen any fracturing in
the Eagle Ford core data we’ve seen,”
Stoneburner commented. “This is a
key difference with the Haynesville.”
The Price Is Right
The Eagle Ford wells appear to lack
the high deliverability or ultimate
recovery potential of the impressive
Haynesville shale wells, but they’re far
less expensive on a per well basis. In
fact, the development cost
comparison between the Haynesville,
Marcellus and Eagle Ford indicates
they’re very comparable, according to
Stoneburner.
He noted Petrohawk’s first Eagle
Ford well topped out at $14 million and
required 60 days from spud date to
TD. The last 10 wells they drilled
averaged about 17 drilling days and
ran up an average tab of $5 million
each.
Stoneburner emphasized
geophysical support helped
considerably to extend the limits of
Hawkville beyond what was originally
mapped. The field now spans 90 miles
east-west and 15 miles north-south.
The company has an extensive 2-D
grid and anticipates receiving its first
set of 3-D data in the first quarter of
2010. More 3-D data will be coming in
later, which is a good thing given that
Petrohawk has latched on to yet
another 25,000 net acres outside
Hawkville.
Pioneer Natural Resources recently
announced a major Eagle Ford
discovery near Pawnee Field in Live
Oak County about 60 miles southeast
of San Antonio.
The Sinor #5 well reportedly flowed
at an initial rate of approximately 8.3
MMcf/d and 500 barrels of condensate
per day. The well was completed in a
2,300-foot lateral with a nine-stage
frac stimulation. It reached a TVD of
approximately 13,000 feet.
According to Scott Sheffield,
chairman and CEO at Pioneer, the
initial results of the well were highly
encouraging, particularly given the
significant volume of condensate and
natural gas liquids. A second well has
kicked off, and more are planned
across the company’s reported
310,000 gross acres in the play.
Pioneer has considerable
experience drilling horizontal wells in
the Edwards section, underlying the
Eagle Ford.
Leasing activity is going
gangbusters throughout the play
where a number of other familiar
names are in the game, including
EOG, Swift, Anadarko and St. Mary
Land & Exploration.
Perhaps the most profound yet
unspoken statement about the play’s
potential is that the big guys are here
as well.
Both ConocoPhillips and Exxon
Mobil have reportedly acquired large
acreage positions but are keeping
mum on their plans.
Optimism rules.
January 8th, 2010 at 12:34 pm“The recent results of other active
players in the trend bodes very well for
establishment of a much more regional
accumulation than just Hawkville
field,” Stoneburner said, “and we’re
encouraged by the success of other
players and the expansion of the play.
“We think the activity will change
dramatically over the course of the
next year,” he added, “and change
positively.”
z – re 89 good idea i dont see much appreciation left in EVEP and LINE.
January 8th, 2010 at 12:45 pmCrude has added $1 off the lows in the last hour, now up 40 cents at $83.12, don’t see any news aside from a Newfoundland refinery fire.
January 8th, 2010 at 12:50 pmRIG & XOM:
January 8th, 2010 at 12:55 pmhttp://www2.canada.com/nanaimodailynews/news/business/story.html?id=79bd7e85-d73f-4576-b029-3e35d355708e
re 92 I agree, not much appreciation left in LINE at current petro prices, but how do I let go of that divvie?
January 8th, 2010 at 12:55 pmA – Saw that arctic rig, nice $ there for RIG.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:03 pmAnyone have a wireless laser printer they actually like?
By the way, the EVGA UV Plus add a monitor via USB deal is working great. Thanks much for the tip there.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:04 pm#68-thanks, BOP-agree on cats & dogs-do like the yield if it will stay stable-do not see any price potential.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:05 pmAgreed. RIG and the other deepwater drillers have had a nice run as of late.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:11 pmfor the past 3 months:
RIG up ~15%, ATW up ~12.5%, DO up ~10%
-Benefiting from stronger oil prices, of course. Any other catalysts we should be looking for with this group?
97- I’ve been using 3 of them for quite awhile. Hope they come out with a new version with a resolution of 1920 x 1200 for 24″+ monitors
January 8th, 2010 at 1:16 pmchoices — asked a HF buddy about PSEC and he steered me toward NGPC as a purer (better run) play on energy yield vehicles. Says he has met with both companies and knows NGPC very well (as it is located — appropriately — in Houston). Not as juicy a yield as PSEC, but better portfolio of investments, it looks like.
For some reason (which i can’t see) NGPC is up big today. So, maye do some DD there and wait for a pull-back, if you’re interested.
Let me know what you think.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:18 pmA – I think the hiring lull in mid and low end rigs maybe ending. Jackup utilization got down to about 75% recently and may be starting to rally a bit due to commodity price stabilization. If that carries on I think you see some warm and cold stacked rigs come back to work.
Fun site to play around on for rig utilization:
http://www.rigzone.com/data/utilization_trends.asp
For ATW, they have a couple of rigs that have been through some upgrades, looking for work that could return, which for them as a small player would yield an immediate boost to earnings at current day rates for that class of rig.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:21 pmBob – thanks, about to order another one.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:22 pmHi Fellas
Newbie here, really enjoying the site.
Z- quick question. NOG came up yesterday and you wrote “So how about using CFPS of $3.76 for 2010, on a $13.17 = 3.5x which is damn cheap onshore, U.S., oily, and in a hot play.” That looks great, but today re: 31
NOG
EV / 2010 EBITDA at 9.5x
P/ 2010 CFPS at 11x
So I’m not understanding the difference between the 3.5x and 11x.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:25 pmRob – good question. Today is correct, yesterday was a mistake on my part. I thought it looked cheaper than my last read by a long shot and should have double checked it. Given their growth and the play, their valuation puts them more in line with the smaller Bakkens. It was cheap when I originally started tracking them but its now more fairly valued. I still expect them to be able to drive that multiple higher with the announcement on the quarterly call of some big well participations. But I flubbed that number yesterday.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:31 pmAh – OK.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:32 pmWeekend line: over/under 1 on takeout of a public co with mkt cap in excess of $ 1 billion.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:33 pmS&P moving into positive territory of a sudden.
Midcap E&P moving green (or at least much less red).
January 8th, 2010 at 1:34 pm#103-Z, do you have a link?
Thanks.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:35 pmWest – hear ya, was thinking the same, betting we see more merger Monday activity.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:35 pmwest — you gots a target in mind???? care to share?????
January 8th, 2010 at 1:37 pmre 109:
http://www.amazon.com/EVGA-100-U2-UV16-A1-Supporting-1600×1200-Resolution/dp/B00191GZ8U
January 8th, 2010 at 1:39 pmRob – Here’s the takeover target list.
http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/calendar/
Pick the next to be taken out and get a free quarter. And by the way, welcome to the site! Please ask questions, it’s the way I learn.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:42 pmLocal coffee talk is that OXY is preparing bid or in discussions with Permian Basin centric company to thwart unwanted advances from CVX. XOP or some other mutlicompany fund might be play as most names will move.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:44 pmre 114 – then PXD would be player big enough there to be significant to CVX.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:46 pmother than SD, who else is permian-basin centric these days?
January 8th, 2010 at 1:46 pmZ – what might be the permian basin centric companies?
January 8th, 2010 at 1:47 pmbop – re 116 like that thought. guess who has SD in the pool?? no stock tho!!
January 8th, 2010 at 1:49 pmBOP – if they want oil then that’s Parker & Parsley and Mesa for you (PXD), there are other little names that come to mind but the big boys are unlikely to want to play small ball.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:49 pmPXD, CXO, XEC, ARD, WLL
January 8th, 2010 at 1:49 pmWest, yep, in that order too.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:50 pmZ: Rig utilization over 80% is the line in the sand as to who has pricing power. My contact @ NE is NOT seeing pricing power just yet on their side. Everyones baclog is down from last year.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:52 pmhmmm… interesting list to ponder. who’s cheapest? on a 2P basis?
January 8th, 2010 at 1:52 pmGreat Zman, now it will be a sleeples night – no more flubbing.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:53 pmZTRADES:
HK – Added (20) of the Feb $29 calls (HKNH) for $0.60.
HK – Added (15) of the Feb $28 calls (HKBG) for $0.90.
Both done with the stock at $26.70. This is a play more on the stock, expecting news in the next month or so, perhaps before earnings on operations. Secondarily, its a play on flat to slightly up natural gas in the next several weeks. I see the chances of them doing another offering with their earnings release as remote and I see them beating their guidance to the upside yet again.
January 8th, 2010 at 1:55 pmZ – first post but been here for a looong while. What’s your take on BEXP share price before Jan exp? Thanks.
(Have Jan 15’s at 23 cents. Had finger on sell button at .85 Wednesday just before market close when phone range. Market closed. Rest is history. Something about “stay focused” comes to mind. 🙂
January 8th, 2010 at 1:55 pm97 – have used a HP 1320 on an Airport Express for five years. If I had to do it again I’d buy today’s HP laser (eg 2035) and plug it into the Airport express via USB
January 8th, 2010 at 2:00 pmNot that this matters but I would think that OXY would want Co that had potentional or existing C02 prospects since that is their thrust in this area. HES also has large CO2 flood ongoing in Wasson Field in Gaines CO, TX. There are a couple of independents such as Endeavor Energy which is second largest Wolfberry producer behind PXD and have had recent financial concerns. Just a note these good ol’ boys around here bet as much on the oil stocks as they do on drlg wells.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:02 pmftc – yeah, you been around since Aug 2007 and you have my thanks.
Re BEXP – dunno. My sense is the market has taken a several day break and may move it higher next week. They could have 1 more well to announce next week as well, timing is right. The safe thing to do is sell now as the stock is still mired from three downgrades (and one upgrade) this week. I sort of doubt they get the pr out next week as they usually space them a bit more. Other potential saving graces are merger monday, and big demand for distillates with next week’s number. So I’m watching it.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:04 pmre 127 – Thanks.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:06 pmThanks. That’s my thoughts (hope) too. Down to the wire it is.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:08 pmftc – safe course, of course, is to punt.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:10 pmIOC wide range today.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:11 pmLacker – minimal inflation risk:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-lacker-inflation-risks-minimal-2010-01-08
January 8th, 2010 at 2:12 pmNot much in the way of eco data Monday and Tuesday next week, Beige Book Wednesday.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:13 pmRe # 120 today’s activity: PXD Feb $55c -3000 contracts, WLL Feb $75c-1000 contracts
January 8th, 2010 at 2:13 pmRig Count Watch
Oil up 9 to 427, vs 341 a year ago.
Gas up 22 to 781 vs 1239 a year ago.
Horizontals up 12 to 583 vs 552 a year ago. Not a record but I’d bet it hits one by year end, 630 + range.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:15 pmIOC-got DST stuck in hole, now unstuck and testing. Expect announcement Monday
January 8th, 2010 at 2:21 pmre 136 and the OXY thought. PXD is double the size in TEV vs WLL. In proved reserves it is 4x the size. Easier to do an immediately accretive deal with the cheaper PXD. However, you don’t get the big Bakken angle with WLL.
Conversely, you don’t get all the other stuff that comes along with PXD (like the Eagle Ford) if you do WLL.
WLL does has the secondary (water) and tertiary (CO2 floods) projects which are working better than plan now, so their reserves may be sharply understated on that portion, which they have been working to increase their interest in.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:25 pmThanks Reef – was planning to take a small piece again.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:26 pmZ Re 85 – I think this is why we saw the huge play in the 27.50 March calls a couple of weeks ago.
I piggy backed on that and amwaiting and watching.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:29 pmSD- is it trying to breakout??
January 8th, 2010 at 2:37 pmPxp- blackrock just reported a 10.18% interet in company.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:44 pmz – isn’t XEC the stk WEST has been high on lately??
January 8th, 2010 at 2:44 pmyes
January 8th, 2010 at 2:47 pmGT – They reported a 12% interest in NFX as well.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:47 pmRIG, DO, NE, ATW charts all look the same, breaking out about now.
PDS also in related space = wpw, nice move, don’t follow it, just have it on the market watch with the other four. Lots of appetite in the space.
Note also the upgrades to ESV of late, BOP, you still sniffing there?
Makes me wonder if RDC runs as well.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:50 pmSo what do you think it means much in either case since I am long both?
January 8th, 2010 at 2:51 pmNot really but I guess it goes to credibility, after all, the Black Rock guys are smart. I used to field calls from Dan Rice on gas demand issues.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:54 pmZ: Congrats, you have had a helluva week. Keep up the good work
January 8th, 2010 at 2:54 pmz — been sniffing around HERO… so, yes.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:55 pmWEST – just bot some PXD and XEC options as following u has been good. thks i want $100 on the under 1 on the merger as a hedge!!! do u still like ATP?
January 8th, 2010 at 2:58 pmWEST – ATPG
January 8th, 2010 at 3:00 pmTom – thanks. Could have done without yesterday but them’s the risks. Last 4 weeks been almost nothing but up, thanks again XOM. Feels like pause time so I’m rolling lightly longer and killing the Jans, for the most part, a bit quicker than usual.
January 8th, 2010 at 3:00 pmThings for me to do next week: get some Shelf exposure in calls. ATPG and SGY, and just maybe MCF on the list.
January 8th, 2010 at 3:02 pmI am at 1 on o/u and we play ties lose so borderline. No ATPG today. DNR, XEC, FST, IOC
January 8th, 2010 at 3:07 pmHey Andy I’ll take the over and I’ll buy u a Zman Tshirt or viceversa , if 1 draw. If that is ok with Z?
January 8th, 2010 at 3:12 pmI’d go with this one
http://www.cafepress.com/cp/moredetails.aspx?showBleed=false&ProductNo=397302519&colorNo=1&pr=F
January 8th, 2010 at 3:14 pmWhat would be an indirect catalyst for RDC?
January 8th, 2010 at 3:14 pmre 159
Continued stability in oil and now in natural gas prices, success in the ultra deep as their gorilla class rigs can hang the larger pipe loads.
January 8th, 2010 at 3:15 pmRE 158 – what does he’s dead jim mean???
January 8th, 2010 at 3:21 pmWEST u on – hope u win!!!!!!!!
January 8th, 2010 at 3:22 pmZTRADE: higher risk trade given the time to expiry.
Added (3) IOC – $85 calls (IOCAQ) for $2.15 with the stock at $83.
January 8th, 2010 at 3:23 pmDo they make a good acquisition?
January 8th, 2010 at 3:24 pmre 161. Guess you are not a Trek fan?
Ok, how about this one?
http://www.cafepress.com/cp/moredetails.aspx?showBleed=false&ProductNo=354564833&colorNo=4&pr=F
January 8th, 2010 at 3:24 pmre 164 – who is they?
January 8th, 2010 at 3:25 pmRDC?
January 8th, 2010 at 3:27 pmZ: Any MLP’s you have an eye on?
January 8th, 2010 at 3:28 pmre 167 – Not that I am aware of but I probably wouldn’t be in that space. I have not heard about the bigger offshore drillers looking to add via M&A, they seem to be content with newbuilds.
January 8th, 2010 at 3:29 pmre 168. VNR mostly. I don’t see the Fed fighting inflation anytime soon via rate hikes so I’m not concerned that the price of something like LINE will need to come in to lift the yield to compete. But I may add VNR which has excess distribution coverage and only gets more coverage as oil rises, which I do expect albeit at a much more modest pace than it did in 2009.
January 8th, 2010 at 3:31 pmReef – I should have called that an R-trade. Thanks for continuing to bird dog and push.
January 8th, 2010 at 3:32 pmJerome – how do you like the HAL chart now, with an eye towards resistance?
January 8th, 2010 at 3:33 pmFor VTZ & anyone else interested in metals: a palladium ETF just started trading: PALL
January 8th, 2010 at 3:34 pmSWN and EOG warming into the close, in trail of the smaller names.
Wow, hot water, what a concept.
January 8th, 2010 at 3:43 pmz – 165 better!!!
January 8th, 2010 at 3:44 pmioc $5.50 swing
January 8th, 2010 at 3:44 pmbrrr its cold, anyone seen al gore?
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=60571000001&channel=VBLOG_BASTARDI&title=Worldwide%20Cold%20Not%20Seen%20since%20%2770s%20Ice%20Age%20Scare
January 8th, 2010 at 3:49 pmre 175, that’s the uniform around here although I find it a touch boring.
Ok, the other shirt:
January 8th, 2010 at 3:53 pmMcCoy in Blue
Kirk in Gold
Barrel of oil which comes from dinosaurs among other things is the red shirt in the original series who always managed to get killed.
Famous line, “He’s Dead Jim”. My own homage to oil and to Shatner, the best actor to ever come out of Canada.
exxi acting poorly
January 8th, 2010 at 3:54 pmBill – that’s the video I was referring to the other day, lol.
January 8th, 2010 at 3:54 pmReef – I’ll chalk it up to profit taking. Let’s see where its at in a few months after Davy and after the quarter.
January 8th, 2010 at 3:55 pmexxi — price action just a little gift, ahead of next week’s action, imho.
what do you think, reef??
January 8th, 2010 at 3:57 pmNo HAL Jan call sale by me until next week.
Beerthirty, stay cold and have a great weekend.
January 8th, 2010 at 3:58 pmEXXI — just a boatload of rumors swirling around that one… would love to see one of them come out of the closet on Monday. We shall see.
January 8th, 2010 at 3:58 pmmcf reports earnings around 2/8 – 2/10
im thinking of adding (options) the week before the numbers
SD would make a good target,no?
They already have a deal with OXY, alot of co2 in ng, now oily and tom ward like to sell shares. Getting 14 to 15 is better than what he has been doing in the past
why wouldnt they be on oxy shopping list
January 8th, 2010 at 3:58 pmIt will be interesting to see how the market reacts to a 225 b draw next week. Probably ng gets pummeled, lol
January 8th, 2010 at 4:01 pmEli – your PBT.TO expanding it’s convert offering to increase Bakken capex. Any thoughts on those?
January 8th, 2010 at 4:02 pmBill – not that they wouldn’t and it does make some sense, I just think oil when people are talking about the Permian, nothing more than that in my comment.
January 8th, 2010 at 4:03 pmpxp finished really strong
Does Flores, the wheeler dealer do something here
Hey thinking out loud, didnt oxy find oil in Kern county in Calif? Pxp has calif oil and playing in mmr’s gom plays.
It would be foolish for PXP to sell here before they know what they have in the GOM.
January 8th, 2010 at 4:07 pmI think OXY would prefer oil over gas as well. Sd just got oilier with the fst permian asset purchase.
We shall see…..
January 8th, 2010 at 4:08 pmBill, I may be wrong but I think OXY gets that Co2 for next to nothing for building the plant with a 10 year contract. SD is limited on production of a lot of their gas because of the high CO2 content that needs to be stripped. Something about the cow and the milk. That being said whenever the CO2 stripping plant is operational this becomes a much more valuable company. Maybe some think that they can wait until closer until completion of the plant before investing.Another problem with SD is that some institutional investors got taken to the edge for a look over the side and didn’t enjoy the ride. I would like to be long a little closer to start up date. Just my personal opinion.
January 8th, 2010 at 4:12 pmpxp volume up today– over 3 m, been heavy all week
7-Jan-10 30.38 30.56 29.99 30.33 1,726,900 30.33
January 8th, 2010 at 4:12 pm6-Jan-10 29.76 30.86 29.76 30.56 3,317,600 30.56
5-Jan-10 28.83 30.25 28.76 29.89 3,082,400 29.89
4-Jan-10 28.09 28.88 28.09 28.88 1,970,000 28.88
31-Dec-09 28.25 28.37 27.64 27.66 991,200 27.66
30-Dec-09 28.14 28.31 27.90 28.17 603,400 28.17
29-Dec-09 28.55 28.78 28.28 28.31 1,243,900 28.31
28-Dec-09 28.83 28.96 28.33 28.51 1,124,100 28.51
24-Dec-09 28.25 28.72 28.20 28.66 642,100 28.66
Re 191. Very well said, what I’ve been thinking since I sold much lower than here.
January 8th, 2010 at 4:19 pm191
>is that some institutional investors got taken to the edge for a look over the side and didn’t enjoy the ride.
I was on that same train, and it wasn’t fun.
I was thinking the same thing as you, about getting back midyear re: oxy plant start up, I only re-entered the name due to the rally in ng prices and cold weather coupled with the fact it got taken to the woodshed for selling stock and the fst purchase. It went down from mid 14 to the 8’s … ouch!!
January 8th, 2010 at 4:21 pmhttp://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/posted/archive/2010/01/08/breaking-rcmp-make-arrest-in-b-c-pipeline-bombing-probe.aspx
January 8th, 2010 at 4:34 pm$10 KP II stuff updated on the holdings page:
http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/holdings/holdings-wiki/
Cash now 41%, Feb calls 38%, Jan calls 21%
January 8th, 2010 at 4:48 pmATPG: Insiders have a lot but still a late Friday Ugh for this one….Chm Bulmahn sells 443,289 shrs yesterday.
On #187 PBT.TO on record that BENLF is not enough to fill the plate in the Cardium. Makes me think BXE.TO(BLLXF), BNE.TO(BNEFF), NAE.UN.TO(NOIGF), WTL.AC(WTLFF), of which I am long BNE which yields C5.8% and NAE which yields C7.7%. Bakken better done on our side of the border as the research is better with the wildZ crew. Therefore interest in PBT is in obtaining an insite into the “thought leader” as relates to the Cardium which I believe to be where the Bakken was two years ago.
January 8th, 2010 at 4:59 pm197 is a wow
They tell the world the stock is worth 102 then he dumps
I’m baffled why he would sell so much with telemark coming online in a few months.
Must be an ugly q4 coming…
January 8th, 2010 at 5:21 pmWow CRED. Better to have a little acreage in the Bakken than big wells these days, lol.
January 8th, 2010 at 5:21 pmBahken has been on fire no doubt. I think we will have similar hysteria in eagle ford
January 8th, 2010 at 5:25 pmhttp://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MzYzOTcyfENoaWxkSUQ9MzU4MjMwfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1
January 8th, 2010 at 7:44 pmThe above link is for new DNR presentation, go to slide 12 for valuation. I might be wrong but this screams PXD to me .
January 8th, 2010 at 7:48 pmMarcellus vs Haynesville………….http://www.ogfj.com/index/article-display.articles.oil-gas-financial-journal.e-__p.unconventional.oil-shale.marcellus-shale.marcellus-projects.html….
January 8th, 2010 at 10:04 pmBarrons article below, key point is a rather surprising and rather unbelievable comment regarding the administration imposing a tariff on imported oil:Deutsche: Most Depressing Oil Conference Ever. By Tiernan Ray
Following up on a Deutsche Bank energy conference in Boston yesterday, the bank’s oil analyst, Paul Sankey, writes in a note today that a mutual fund manager attending the conference remarked that “This is the most depressing conference I’ve ever been to,” given the outlook for sluggish growth holding back refiners’ stocks.
Sankey remarks that management of refiners Tesoro (TSO) and Valero Energy (VLO) did not “sugar coat” their presentations. (The executives spoke in closed-door meetings with analysts and the buy-side.) The conference was well attended, with fewer than 4% of refining companies not showing. Which Sankey takes as evidence “refiners are hot with the buy side.” He notes a bright spot came in the luncheon speech from European refiner Petroplus’s CEO, who offered that there’s a likelihood of Washington imposing tariffs on U.S. oil imports, which would be bullish for U.S. refiners.
January 9th, 2010 at 9:07 amSkimo – what’s the date on that article? Scary thought on the tariff on oil imports, good way to start trade wars with 30 or 40 countries at once.
January 9th, 2010 at 9:11 amit would fit
tax the evil oil companies
raise the cost of oil
they want 5 dollar gasoline so they can then blame the evil oil companies for the price rise
higher gasoline makes battery operated pelosi mobiles more attractive
only users of gas powered suvs allowed will be govt officials on offical duty
that would help us companies so they must be hit with a windfall profits tax
this will all be rationalized that our gas is too cheap and encourages waste
January 9th, 2010 at 10:05 amBill – I can’t count the number of times I’ve heard officials say that raising the cost of leases or imposing cap and trade limits on U.S. refiners (with only half of that same burden placed on imported gasoline) will NOT raise the price for consumers or hurt domestic industry. They will say that an import tariff won’t be passed along to consumers; maybe they will just regulate prices which is popular in place like Iran and China. So you have nothing to worry about, lol.
January 9th, 2010 at 10:11 amOther shirt choices for Andy:
Got Bakken?
http://www.cafepress.com/ZmansEnergy.354564833#
Got Shale?
January 9th, 2010 at 10:17 amhttp://www.cafepress.com/ZmansEnergy.412031269#
How Determining Oil & Gas Valuations are done: Cardium
http://www.selfdirectedinvestor.com/articles/?a=determiningoila.htm&b=20100108
January 9th, 2010 at 11:11 amref 205 article dated jan 8 2010
January 9th, 2010 at 2:47 pmInteresting article on trying to decipher Bill Gross-he thinks March maybe when Fed “Attempts” to begin exit strategy.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/181306-deciphering-current-thinking-of-pimco-s-bill-gross?source=article_sb_popular
Interesting alleged quote: “What amazes me most of all is that politicians can be bought so cheaply”
Heh-who knew?
January 9th, 2010 at 3:37 pmre 211 Gotta love the Robert Palmer references? Was the 2009 fed spending so fine that there’s no tellin where the money went?
January 9th, 2010 at 5:26 pmI’m afraid the video is now ruined forever though.-Ha
Oil and Gold up big due to China numbers… could be a big Monday to start the week.
January 11th, 2010 at 1:01 am