08
Jan

Less Jobs Friday

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Market Sentiment Watch: All eyes on payrolls which came in at -85,000 vs an expectation range of -8,000.  The unemployment rate came in at 10.0% vs 10.1% expected. Futures are trading only slightly lower on the data.   Goldman Sachs out with an upgrade of (HAL) will give me a nice opportunity to sell my higher strike Jan calls today.

In Today's Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Storage Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - Drybulk thoughts
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch

  • $10KP II:

    • $31,800
    • 61% Cash
    • The Current View listing on the Holdings Tab is updated.
    • I will fully update the $10KP II tab on Monday as per usual.
  • Yesterday's Trades:

    • Added (20) BEXP $15 January Calls for $0.40 which is my average cost in the position, with the stock at $14.65.
    • BEXP – added (30) more BEXP $15 calls for 0.35 with the stock at 14.50. This is a high risk trade at this point. I now have 100 calls at a little under 40 cents average cost. These could easily go to zero as they expire next week. If it does it certainly won’t kill me as its $3000 from here to $0. They should have more news this month and possibly next week.

Commodity Watch

Crude oil fell $0.52 to close at $82.66 yesterday on dollar strength and simple profit taking after a recent strong run. The weather forecast for next week shows markedly more moderate weather, still cold, but not nearly the record breaking cold we have been seeing in the U.S.  This morning crude is trading off 30 cents.

  • Why Is Oil Up This High? Question prompted by Pack last night and I think its a good one. My thoughts on the matter:
  1. The U.S. equity market has had a big run, same drivers help crude (right or wrong).
  2. It's cold, very cold, not just in the U.S. but in Europe and Asia.
  3. Global oil demand is rising, again, not in the U.S. but in the Middle East, China, India, parts of South America.
  4. OPEC is known to be severely cheating on their quotas put in place at the end of 2008 AND refiners in the U.S. have greatly curtailed throughput AND this has NOT led to a continued rally in U.S. crude storage.  This gets back to crude being absorbed in other, faster growing parts of the globe.
  5. Near term data in the U.S. doesn't really support the move over $80 but traders think the data will turn soon and the Strip is looking through the trough. 

Natural gas gave back half of the prior day's gain falling $0.20 to close at $5.81 yesterday after the EIA reported an "in line" storage withdrawal (see below). This morning gas is trading off a dime on the moderating weather forecast for next week.


Natural Gas Storage Review


ZComment: Ok, the holiday-light numbers are now out of the way; bring on the big Kahuna withdrawals, at least for the next two weeks. A lot of folks, myself included, are looking for the next two reports to top 200 Bcf, with the next one especially scoring a withdrawal in the mid 200s.

  • The CPC put degree days at 239 last week which gave us yesterday's 153 Bcf number.
  • Recall that for the week ended December 12th, HDDs were 232 and we got a withdrawal of 207 Bcf.
  • Then note that the degree day forecast for this week was a season high 263 HDDs and I suspect that that number will be higher when finalized next Monday.
  • Next week the mercury should moderate slightly but still, without the impact of a holiday in the week, we should top 200 Bcf for the week of the 15th.
  • After that, the long range forecast continues to show cold.

 

On to the gas graphs ... not a lot to point out except the downward kinks in graphs B and C


 

Stuff We Care About Today

Dry Bulk Multiples

  • Just carrying through with my thesis that it's a good idea to check in on each of sectors at the beginning of the year. 
  • As you can see from the following table, the names still appear cheap on forward earnings but you'll also not that the earning trend remains negative for many.

  • Freight rates just completed a large rally and pull back sequence. See link here.
  • "A recovery in global growth provides a favorable backdrop for the shipping sector," ~ Goldman in a piece yesterday. Give that one the most obvious statement of the decade to date award. It's the recovery that uncertain, not that relationship.
  • So Goldman continues with ~ "We reiterate our positive view on the shipping sector, which is well leveraged to a global growth recovery forecast by Goldman Sachs ECS Research,"
  • As always, the buzzword here will be China. China needs more coal due to weather, China needs more coal to make steel, and to send more goods (now including autos) overseas, etc.
  • Finally, new build ship orders are starting to pick up, in the wake of months of cancellations.
  • The stocks remain beaten down and bear closer observation than I gave them in 2009.
  • The (SEA) ETF would seem to indicate that there is increasing interest in the group again as it tries to break out of a base on the daily chart.
  • (SEA) hasn't been around all that long (see components here) but the chart looks very similar to one of the stronger names in the group DSX.

Who Does What In The Group?

  • In short, I'm going to watch them closer, with a preference for the lower debt, more reputable names in the group like DSX and NM ---. I may also look into adding some Asian names in this space.

  

Pritchard Conference Day 3 (all times EST)

 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • HAL - Goldman Sachs ups to Buy, adds to Conviction Buy List
  • HP and CAM cut to Neutral at Goldman
  • NBR raised to Neutral at Goldman
  • BAS cut to Sell at Goldman
  • ESV raised to Outperform at Opco
  • CLNE cut to market perform at Northland Secs.
  • FST price target bumped $3 to $28 at Barclays.

213 Responses to “Less Jobs Friday”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Product Update Watch: External tankless water heater. No hot water today. Cause 11 degrees outside. Brilliant design that one.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Crude and natural gas rolling over a bit, crude was within a hair of even earlier, now off 75 cents, NG down 16 cents as it oscillates in the mid to high $5s.

  3. 3
    kiaora Says:

    Sorry to hear that….I was thinking ’bout getting one. Here in chi-town we pass 11 degrees on the way to getting cold.

  4. 4
    ram Says:

    Sorry for the little ones, the adults can suffer a little while.

  5. 5
    Dman Says:

    Z & Packman

    regarding your exchange yesterday about $100 crude.

    Just wanna point out that even has the dollar index was bouncing recently, commodities like wheat, crude, silver were all creeping up. Gold maybe not but it just had a moonshot.

    I don’t think it is driven by a perception of economic strength, but rather a symptom of the decay of most fiat currencies. So the dollar can rise against other bits of paper & commodities can rise (in $) at the same time. Of course, people are still earning salaries in fiat confetti, so their spending power (measured in commodities) is shrinking.

    Combine that with the mega-debt load and I would have to think that what is left of “the economy” will crack at a lower crude price than in the last go round. But how will we know that it cracks when it is limping along (at best) to start with?

  6. 6
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    The BCS Bowl was painful to watch… back in a sec….

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    How you cut the federal budget 101:

    EPA tightening regulations on smog. Of the 675 monitored counties in the U.S., 650 don’t meet the new regulations. If your county can’t meet the new regulations, various forms of federal funding will be choked back (pun intended).

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Someone commented last night that the standard deviation of error in the payrolls survey is about 100,000. LoL.

    Thanks Dman, good points.

    Re water heater. Kids like it = no baths. And I’m eying the external windshield that someone left in a box as a potential culprit.

  9. 9
    jat Says:

    https://www.seeuthere.com/ui/18/182354/gec2010agenda.pdf

    I wish I was in Florida right now.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Greatly appreciated jat.

  11. 11
    elduque Says:

    Although a little early in the morning. Temp outside is 72 degrees in Maui.

    Aloha one and all.

  12. 12
    Dman Says:

    Addendum to #5.

    Due to population driven demand growth outside Western economies, crude can creep up even without any real economic “strength”. But it does need stability, so another bout of deflation chaos would certainly drag crude down & would be a terrific buying opportunity.

  13. 13
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    From Cross-Asset Strategist #2

    Payrolls fell 85K last month, a worse outcome than the unchanged number that the consensus was looking for. Revisions were minor, so this number was 86k below consensus. Taken by itself, this would be a modest miss.

    However, both the average work week and aggregate hours worked were unchanged, with no revisions. Adding these to the mix, we would characterize the report as a slight miss. This report is supportive of our view of a modestly growing economy putting in a sub-par recovery.

    The market action as of this writing is consistent with a slight miss. S&P futures are down about 5-6 points, and 10-year Treasury yields are down about 2-3 basis points. As such, there’s nothing abnormal we see about the market response to the number.

    In credit, spreads are a touch wider this morning, but as a function of the drop in Treasury yields, not from selling of credit. That means, while stocks may hit an air pocket, the credit bull market seems poised to continue.

  14. 14
    jiveyjr Says:

    picked up some EOG I’ve been wanting on a pullback….

  15. 15
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    For me, the only “surprise” in the payroll report was that anyone was looking for a positive number. That said, I am surprised that Nov’s number was revised from -11k to +4k. With that revision, it puts the number within range of what the Bloomberg consensus was calling for. MarketWatch? Not so much.

    TechTrader is 55/45 SHORT today… but with bad color (so not a reliable call).

    HeadTrader calls for buying the opening sell-off.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Thanks to Goldman for the HAL upgrade, good timing guys.

  17. 17
    bill Says:

    on drybulk

    one name i like is nm.. im not in it at the moment but their avg rates will be about 5 k higher to 30 k as they signed some new long term contracts.

    They are also buying new capes cheaply with cheap prf conv stock

    Note your multiples on ebitda 10.9 x for 2009 and 6.1x for 2010. The ceo owns a chunk of stock.

    Cantor is also behind the name, with a buy rating and ,i think, an 8 dollar target

    The name is more levered than another favorite dsx

  18. 18
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HERO — C.K. Cooper initiates HERO with a Buy and price target of $7, as they note the co is focused on cutting costs, increasing utilization, expanding internationally both with its liftboats and jackups, and repaying its debt. Firm expects negative earnings for 2009-2011 and until the jackup market rebounds, the co faces a tough period.

  19. 19
    bill Says:

    9 i see pxp,chk,hk & sd are on the list.

    Means we should see some news before then

  20. 20
    Dman Says:

    VTZ if you are out there somewhere in the frozen wastes 🙂

    What do you think of the chances of a breakout in silver in the not-to-distant future?

  21. 21
    1520sbroad Says:

    #11 – I’ll take Maui over anywhere this morning.

    Saw some talk about POT in the posts from yesterday – big development for all the ferts was the signing of the chinese supply contract in the last week or so. Basically sets a floor price for all price negotiations in 2010 at about $350 a ton for potash. Obviously POT has reacted positively. That $120 mark was resistance in my mind. I had a bunch of calls sold there that i had written a couple of times. I am having a big internal debate about whether to roll them out longer or just take the profit and run.

  22. 22
    jiveyjr Says:

    it was 17 this am in Fort Worth…

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    I see TS is doing one on ones only at the GS energy conference. It’s a good bet they benefit from Chinese pipe being further taxed.

  24. 24
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Start the Year off right, with an update from Cross Asset Class Strategist #2… been a while since the last reading assignment. But, this helps to fill in the bigger picture…

    http://www.capmarkets.com/ViewFile.asp?ID1=335036&ID2=347956765&ssid=2&directory=11608&bm=0&filename=An_Unbelievable_Credit_Bull_Market_Spawns_Few_Believers_1-8-10.pdf

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    600 watt halogen work light, 1 foot from 3/4 inch brass fitting (full of ice no doubt) as the copper is wrapped, outside temp 13. Might be awhile on the hot water honey.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    IOC at $80, tempting.

    SWN FEB $55s back where I bought them. I don’t think the move in gas is going to completely reverse out soon based on a somewhat milder forecast next week, looking to add to those soon.

    Will likely punt the HAL late day as it is a bright green point in an otherwise bright red field of stocks and those tend to gravitate higher.

    Looking at EOG and WLL as adds and may join Bill in the ROSE calls.

  27. 27
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Oily Comment from TPH this am —

    Top oily E&P picks (E&P $557) – Let’s review Top three. NBL still 2010 favorite with 38% upside to 3P NAV, cheap multiples (6.5x and 5.7x 2010-‘11e EBITDAX) with material exploration upside. CXO moves into 2nd with 31% 3P NAV upside, head-scratchingly cheap in-line multiples (7.4x and 5.7x for 2010-‘11e) given > 20% oily growth. PXD now 3rd with 25-30% 3P NAV upside when paying for Eagle Ford (7.7x & 6.4x EBITDAX). We’re still not officially giving PXD any Eagle Ford or Barnett love…yet.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Bill – note the format is panels and not single company presentations. May get news, maybe not from those companies. I expect something relatively soon out of the HK.

    HAL approaching $34.

    Thanks for the TPH comments, all solid, oily names, feels a little late to the party on the PXD which I like, I do think those guys are getting credit now for the EFS, big run there.

    Head Trader looking pretty right right now.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Emailed in question:

    I am pretty bearish ST right now on natty E&P. Just feel like the minute the weather turns we are in for 10-15% hit. Feel like trimming / shorting but scared on that upcoming withdrawal next week. Any thoughts?

    My thoughts:

    I think we could see your hit. I think the next two storage numbers will be 200+ but so do most folks. So it warms slightly while you loose 400 Bcf from storage and the YoY surplus contracts. I’m thinking the hit may come but that it will be very swift as cold returns to the system (at least that’s what I’m gleaning from Bastardi).

  30. 30
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #28 — HeadTrader thanks you for your kudos. He is currently taking applications for his Fan Club. His ego was severely bruised when his application to a matchmaker service was turned down. Seems the Holidays were filled with a lot of Desk Cheer and baskets from Harry&David, this year.

    http://beautifulpeople.com/

    http://www.cnn.com/2010/LIVING/personal/01/04/dating.site.overweight/index.html

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    Bakken Multiples

    WLL – Despite the run:

    EV / 2010 EBITDA at 5.3x
    P/ 2010 CFPS at 4.9x

    CLR

    EV / 2010 EBITDA at 13.3x
    P/ 2010 CFPS at 12.7x

    NOG

    EV / 2010 EBITDA at 9.5x
    P/ 2010 CFPS at 11x

    BEXP

    EV / 2010 EBITDA at 16.7x
    P/ 2010 CFPS at 16.2x

    AEZ

    EV / 2010 EBITDA = negative
    P/ 2010 CFPS at 1,587x

    KOG

    EV / 2010 EBITDA at 10.5x
    P/ 2010 CFPS at 9.8x

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Re 30. Hey I’m a fan … I’ll see if maybe my SIL isn’t busy this weekend.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    I’m signing this:

    http://www.pickensplan.com/petition/

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Sent from T Boone earlier:

    Our economy is bleeding billions for foreign oil — much of it from countries that don’t like us. That’s billions we should use to create American jobs.

    We’ve waited patiently while Congress debated the stimulus package and then healthcare reform. While discussion of our dangerous dependence on foreign oil was put on the backburner, we continued to import nearly two-thirds of the oil we use.

    We can’t wait any longer.

    President Obama and the 111th Congress can break the cycle of foreign oil dependence by immediately enacting an energy plan that reduces our foreign oil dependence by at least 30% within ten years. Delaying any further means tacit support for continuing America’s addiction to foreign oil.

    Most of the oil we import is used as a transportation fuel — cars, trucks, aircraft, boats and trains. About one barrel out of every five is used as diesel fuel to power heavy trucks, including 18-wheelers.

    The only domestic fuel that is available to immediately reduce our dependence on foreign oil is natural gas. Natural gas is cheaper than diesel fuel. Natural gas is cleaner than diesel. It’s abundant. And it’s ours.

    The time to act is now and the NAT GAS Act (H.R. 1835 and S. 1408) is the best tool we’ve had in decades to reduce our dependence on foreign oil.

  35. 35
    ram Says:

    Yikes. If I violate ZEB code of conduct, wiil it be immediate removal or do I have a second chance?

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    Re 35 Huh? To what are you referring. I don’t recall removing anyone.

  37. 37
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #36 — it’s not you, z… it’s the BeautifulPeople rule. They run a pretty tough site. Has HeadTrader all flustered.

  38. 38
    milepost_43 Says:

    #13 you won’t see this chart on MSNBC or CNBC
    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/volcker/Labor%20Force%20Participation%20Rate.jpg

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    Milepost – can you explain what 38 means?

  40. 40
    jiveyjr Says:

    BOP…thx for the good humor in #30…that really made me laugh…

  41. 41
    jiveyjr Says:

    re:33…I signed it too…wrote my congressman and two senators earlier and asked them to support this bill and/or type legislation…congressman supports it and got off base responses from Cornyn and Hutchison…

  42. 42
    ram Says:

    It’s a question. Maybe you need a hot shower.

  43. 43
    isleworth Says:

    Freezing Rain and possible snow forecasted for Orlando tomorrow. Ocala – sleet and snow.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Re 37. Ohhhhhh. Ya know there is an opportunity there.

    Maybe Chubhub.com or something similar.
    Look sort of average? Got your bar set pretty low? Then come on down to the Chubhub and we’ll fix you up with, um, something.

  45. 45
    choices Says:

    BOP-are you familiar with Prospect Capital-provides financing to energy companies, private and public-PSEC is the trading symbol, pays qtrly div consistantly, current yield about 13.8%.

    S & P Investment grade.

    http://www.prospectenergy.com/

    Would appreciate your comments when you get a chance.

    Thanks

  46. 46
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #43 — maybe we should think about buying Orange Juice futures…

  47. 47
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    choices #45 — not familiar. Thanks for the head’s up… will take a look.

  48. 48
    VTZ Says:

    Dman – Silver will breakout at some point once gold starts rallying again and eventually outperform once it breaks through overhead support. The silver rally and the HUI rally will be the confirmations that another large bull rally will be on the way but I don’t foresee a silver rally leading gold. I see the strength in the HUI as an indication that the rally is not over at all and it actually held up better than gold price when it was falling.

    I still love and will always love SLW as a great silver play and/or trading vehicle depending on where the price is at relative to the silver price.

    I haven’t done much squiggly line watching because of the holidays so I can’t talk much about silver in terms of breakout levels etc.

    Once I have an opinion on levels, I’ll post something.

  49. 49
    milepost_43 Says:

    #38 39…don’t think things are getting better when we have 5 year low in participation….more government ie taxpayer help likely coming…ouch…HOWEVER, I am positioned as a BULL..right now….BUT standing very near the exit door…chart from this site http://www.zerohedge.com/ well worth bookmarking….

  50. 50
    Dman Says:

    Thanks V.

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE:

    HAL – Added (15) Feb $35 Calls for $0.935 average, with the stock at $33.35. Will come out of my $33 Januaries either today or Monday most likely.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Thanks Milepost.

  53. 53
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #48, it’s interesting that SLW has been a relative strength leader against silver futures for some time now…

  54. 54
    choices Says:

    BOP-hopefully, another quick question-have seen discussions, most recently from Morgan Stanley, that T-Bill, T-Bond interest rates are going to increase significantly in 2010-if so, what does this do to the private credit market, specifically corp bonds. Answer may be obvious would appreciate your views.

    Thanks

  55. 55
    andy Says:

    ram- – u are funny. liked hot shower comment!!!

  56. 56
    bill Says:

    exxi slides are up

    http://www.wsw.com/webcast/pritch2/exxi/index.html

  57. 57
    cargocult Says:

    Bill, Thanks for the update on NM. I held on through thin even after you warned us to get out of drybulk. I’m paying more attention to you now.

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    EXXI in 10 minutes

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    Group starting to green a little.

    NBR upgrade at GS looks a little late to me but makes sense given rigs. Name looks pretty expensive now but that changes if the rig count continues to bump up. Any thoughts there Jat?

  60. 60
    Jerome Blank Says:

    SD…for folks still with SD, SD has “V” reversed off the lows, and recently started holding the 200 day SMA as support, I’d really like to see SD print $11, a three box reversal on the P&F chart from there would occur on a retrace to $9.50, this is an area of redundant support with a confluence of both 20 day and 50 day SMA at crossover support…SD has a difficult P&F chart to work with right now, but if you long term, stops below $9.50 make the most sense…

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE:

    ATW – Bought (5) ATW Feb $40 Calls (ATWBH) for $2.00. Stock has best long term earnings profile amongst the deepwater drillers and looks like its about to breakout of a 3 month base to my layman’s technical eye, following some of the larger names higher. Starting small as I didn’t grab it on the recent pullback.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Jerome – when you get a chance would you look at that ATW chart? Thx.

  63. 63
    bill Says:

    ty for the update on sd

    i hope it holds 10 % and runs another 10 %

    They usually have an operations update within 2 weeks of the new year.. I expect something soon

  64. 64
    bill Says:

    exxi moving up 2.74

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    EXXI call started.

  66. 66
    bill Says:

    gassy names are coming back strong

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    EXXI notes…

    Shiller talking up his better knowledge on the reserves they just bought.

    Production
    current 27,000 BOEpd
    going to 30,000 BOEpd

  68. 68
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PSEC… first impression… an awful lot of professionals on the payroll. And don’t like it when the CEO and one of the Senior Staff (IR, among other responsibilities) are married. In asset mngmt, your real assets are your people. But, can work sometimes.

    Also, hate PE/mezz “energy investing” from NYC. Yorktown is the only one I’ve seen do it successfully over the long run.

    As far as their investment portfolio… looks like an awful lot of cats and dogs. Not all energy either. Not all income-producing either. Will snoop around some more… not saying it won’t go up. We are still in the early stages of the overall bull mrkt (which should last 3-4 yrs) and a rising tide raises all boats.

    It has a nice yield…

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    EXXI notes 2

    Still have 3,600 BOEpd shut in from hurricanes, get that back on this quarter so run rate this quarter will be 30,000 boepd by q end.

  70. 70
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #62, ATW has an interesting chart, ATW perfected a “beartrap” with the recent X box reversal off the print below $34…looks like it’s making a third effort today at testing that tough area of resistance around $40…if it can get up there, ATW would complete a triple top breakout buy signal with a print of $41…

  71. 71
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — thx for the EXXI notes… stuck on a call. that 30k boe/d is higher than analysts are currently modeling, by the way

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    EXXI notes 3

    Lot of areas that were previously thought to be salt have been reprocessed, sounds like quite a lot of opportunities.

    Now talking ultra deep shelf. …

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    EXXI –

    I’ve sat with this guy (same lunches with Hackett) when he was at Ocean. He did mention the whole “how long to get to production” mantra then. Very sharp. Makes sense he is on the Ultra deep shelf stuff now. Infranstructure is in place, but you have the same target sizes as you do in the deepwater but in the deepwater, you are 1 to 3 to even 5 years out after the discovery from first production.

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    EXXI – ultradeep

    Davy Jones at 28,262 feet now, changing bottom hole assembly, planned TD at 29,000 feet. Need full set of logs, lot of sand, encouraged now.

    Blackbeard – drilled to 33,000 feet, was still 1,500 feet short of the Wilcox.

    May go drill the Blackbeard East – good set of slides from 17 to 22

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    SWN – S&P raises from Buy to Hold.

    BOP – EXXI – take a look at slide 26, good way to show CF vs Capex for the next 11 wells to drill. Good to see they show the $90 mm cost but only a slight outrun of Cash flow as the tie in the recent wells and bring that hurricane impaired production back on line.

    Said their revolver will go to $350 mm by month end.

    I will be adding more EXXI up here.

  76. 76
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    got caught on a call… got the last bit of the EXXI presentation. Sounds pretty darn strong. No mention of how they are going to allocate the additional CF??

  77. 77
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    listing to the replay now…

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    ZLT Trades

    Sold All GMXR for 14.41, up 47%

    Sold a piece of my KOG, at $2.55, up 146%

    Bought EXXI at $2.74.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    HAL working higher

  80. 80
    reefguy Says:

    BOP- $2.75 by friday achieved….

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    Reef – nice.

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    Will be spending some time over the weekend on the CXPO.

  83. 83
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    reef — you da man!! right beside you, guy.

    Listened to the entire EXXI call. Heard what I wanted to hear. Hints about conservative development projects and optimism about the deep prospects. See EXXI has allocated 20% of capex to the deep wells. Two comments: 1) don’t want to see that percentage creep higher (will be watching for FY11 allocations) and 2) capex is underspending CF (and will allow for acqtns). Also heard that they expect to be able to pick up good properties (acqtns) over the next yr and a half, from bigger guys realigning their properties. THIS is what I wanted to hear… now, just have to see them do it.

    Very positive call. They have planned the trade… now just need to see them trade the plan. I’ll be watching.

  84. 84
    reefguy Says:

    82-very, very interesting

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    Reef – If HK pulls off good results at Red Hawk (and I suspect that well is at TD) then CXPO could get a quick pump.

  86. 86
    reefguy Says:

    Yes, when will HK release that news?

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    Re HK – I’d bet early Feb at latest for an ops update. If not then, then with the 4Q results in late Feb.

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    Market out to lunch again, very quiet trading, feels like they have an upward bias though.

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    Time to start thinking about MLP’s that will get to reinstate their suspended distributions due to price.

  90. 90
    reefguy Says:

    Price–todays Centerpoint East(Fay) is $8.02

  91. 91
    bill Says:

    Eagle Ford Joins Shale Elite
    By LOUISE S. DURHAM
    EXPLORER Correspondent

    A still-fledgling shale gas play
    appears to be on the cusp of snagging
    a sizeable spot in the limelight alongside
    U.S. shale gas heavyweights such as
    the Haynesville, Marcellus, Barnett and
    others.

    The newbie lies in south Texas in the
    Cretaceous Eagle Ford shale, which is
    long known for sourcing hydrocarbons
    to Austin Chalk fields as well as the
    renowned East Texas field. The play
    extends from near the Mexican border
    outward to the east/northeast across
    several counties.

    It’s early in the drilling game, but so
    far the shale appears to offer relatively
    high well production rates and low
    drilling costs – a combo essentially
    guaranteed to warm the heart of any
    operator.

    This being Texas, there’s plenty of oil
    and gas infrastructure in place, along
    with large areas of ranch land available
    for leasing from owners long
    comfortable with – and knowledgeable
    about – the industry.

    In other words, this won’t be a repeat
    of the earlier frenzied leasing activity in
    the still-relatively new Jurassic
    Haynesville shale play concentrated in
    northwest Louisiana. As the hype
    intensified there, landowners began
    demanding – and receiving – lease
    bonuses that soared into the
    stratosphere in many instances.

    Petrohawk Energy Corp., which has
    hit significant home runs in the
    Haynesville play, was first up to the plate
    in the Eagle Ford play, where it now has
    16 wells on production.

    The company drilled the discovery
    well – the STS-241 #1H – in the fall of
    2008 in what would be christened
    Hawkville Field. The horizontal well in
    LaSalle County flowed 7.6 MMcf and
    250 barrels of condensate per day from
    the Eagle Ford.

    Petrohawk validated the play when it
    moved about 14 miles to the southwest
    and drilled the Dora Martin #1-H.

    In contrast to the discovery well, the
    horizontally drilled Dora Martin tested
    8.3 MMcf/d with no condensate, even
    though completed at essentially the
    same TVD of 11,500 feet.

    ‘Something Funky’
    This difference in production makeup
    is an intriguing aspect of the play.
    The Hawkville, where Petrohawk
    holds 216,000 net acres, is in a kind of
    mini-basin, or natural topographic low,
    containing high porosity and highresistivity
    facies, and positioned
    between the Edwards and the Sligo shelf
    margins.

    The field is characterized by a
    downdip dry gas play in the southwest,
    a mid-dip gas/condensate and an updip
    oil play.

    “There’s something funky going on,”
    said AAPG member Dick Stoneburner,
    executive vice president and COO at
    Petrohawk. “There’s burial history or a lot
    of things you can throw into the equation
    on why there are different thermal
    maturities at each end.

    “We think it’s pretty clear it’s mainly a
    function of burial history,” he said. “The
    southwest end of the field at one part
    was considerably deeper than today, but
    it’s been uplifted.

    “This is a plausible interpretation
    based on the presence of the Chittim
    arch, which is a prominent Laramide
    feature,” Stoneburner said. “That would
    have had the ability to affect that end of
    the field and have it uplifted to the
    present depth, so the theory has support
    based on burial history and regional
    tectonics.”

    With regard to mineralogical makeup,
    the Eagle Ford is a different breed of cat
    from what you might expect in a shale.
    Some samples contain as much as 70
    percent calcite and a goodly bit of silica,
    with average clay content tallying 11
    percent, according to Stoneburner.
    “It’s very brittle rock and not water
    sensitive,” he said. “It has the perfect
    mineralogical makeup for a shale gas
    play.”

    He noted that the Eagle Ford is so full
    of gas and so permeable, the rock
    actually falls apart as the gas is
    liberated when a core is brought up to,
    say, 15 pounds of pressure.

    “We haven’t seen any fracturing in
    the Eagle Ford core data we’ve seen,”
    Stoneburner commented. “This is a
    key difference with the Haynesville.”
    The Price Is Right
    The Eagle Ford wells appear to lack
    the high deliverability or ultimate
    recovery potential of the impressive
    Haynesville shale wells, but they’re far
    less expensive on a per well basis. In
    fact, the development cost
    comparison between the Haynesville,
    Marcellus and Eagle Ford indicates
    they’re very comparable, according to
    Stoneburner.

    He noted Petrohawk’s first Eagle
    Ford well topped out at $14 million and
    required 60 days from spud date to
    TD. The last 10 wells they drilled
    averaged about 17 drilling days and
    ran up an average tab of $5 million
    each.

    Stoneburner emphasized
    geophysical support helped
    considerably to extend the limits of
    Hawkville beyond what was originally
    mapped. The field now spans 90 miles
    east-west and 15 miles north-south.
    The company has an extensive 2-D
    grid and anticipates receiving its first
    set of 3-D data in the first quarter of
    2010. More 3-D data will be coming in
    later, which is a good thing given that
    Petrohawk has latched on to yet
    another 25,000 net acres outside
    Hawkville.

    Pioneer Natural Resources recently
    announced a major Eagle Ford
    discovery near Pawnee Field in Live
    Oak County about 60 miles southeast
    of San Antonio.

    The Sinor #5 well reportedly flowed
    at an initial rate of approximately 8.3
    MMcf/d and 500 barrels of condensate
    per day. The well was completed in a
    2,300-foot lateral with a nine-stage
    frac stimulation. It reached a TVD of
    approximately 13,000 feet.

    According to Scott Sheffield,
    chairman and CEO at Pioneer, the
    initial results of the well were highly
    encouraging, particularly given the
    significant volume of condensate and
    natural gas liquids. A second well has
    kicked off, and more are planned
    across the company’s reported
    310,000 gross acres in the play.
    Pioneer has considerable
    experience drilling horizontal wells in
    the Edwards section, underlying the
    Eagle Ford.

    Leasing activity is going
    gangbusters throughout the play
    where a number of other familiar
    names are in the game, including
    EOG, Swift, Anadarko and St. Mary
    Land & Exploration.
    Perhaps the most profound yet
    unspoken statement about the play’s
    potential is that the big guys are here
    as well.
    Both ConocoPhillips and Exxon
    Mobil have reportedly acquired large
    acreage positions but are keeping
    mum on their plans.

    Optimism rules.
    “The recent results of other active
    players in the trend bodes very well for
    establishment of a much more regional
    accumulation than just Hawkville
    field,” Stoneburner said, “and we’re
    encouraged by the success of other
    players and the expansion of the play.
    “We think the activity will change
    dramatically over the course of the
    next year,” he added, “and change
    positively.”

  92. 92
    andy Says:

    z – re 89 good idea i dont see much appreciation left in EVEP and LINE.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Crude has added $1 off the lows in the last hour, now up 40 cents at $83.12, don’t see any news aside from a Newfoundland refinery fire.

  94. 94
    Alhambra Says:

    RIG & XOM:
    http://www2.canada.com/nanaimodailynews/news/business/story.html?id=79bd7e85-d73f-4576-b029-3e35d355708e

  95. 95
    skimo Says:

    re 92 I agree, not much appreciation left in LINE at current petro prices, but how do I let go of that divvie?

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    A – Saw that arctic rig, nice $ there for RIG.

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    Anyone have a wireless laser printer they actually like?

    By the way, the EVGA UV Plus add a monitor via USB deal is working great. Thanks much for the tip there.

  98. 98
    choices Says:

    #68-thanks, BOP-agree on cats & dogs-do like the yield if it will stay stable-do not see any price potential.

  99. 99
    Alhambra Says:

    Agreed. RIG and the other deepwater drillers have had a nice run as of late.
    for the past 3 months:
    RIG up ~15%, ATW up ~12.5%, DO up ~10%
    -Benefiting from stronger oil prices, of course. Any other catalysts we should be looking for with this group?

  100. 100
    Bob Says:

    97- I’ve been using 3 of them for quite awhile. Hope they come out with a new version with a resolution of 1920 x 1200 for 24″+ monitors

  101. 101
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    choices — asked a HF buddy about PSEC and he steered me toward NGPC as a purer (better run) play on energy yield vehicles. Says he has met with both companies and knows NGPC very well (as it is located — appropriately — in Houston). Not as juicy a yield as PSEC, but better portfolio of investments, it looks like.

    For some reason (which i can’t see) NGPC is up big today. So, maye do some DD there and wait for a pull-back, if you’re interested.

    Let me know what you think.

  102. 102
    zman Says:

    A – I think the hiring lull in mid and low end rigs maybe ending. Jackup utilization got down to about 75% recently and may be starting to rally a bit due to commodity price stabilization. If that carries on I think you see some warm and cold stacked rigs come back to work.

    Fun site to play around on for rig utilization:
    http://www.rigzone.com/data/utilization_trends.asp

    For ATW, they have a couple of rigs that have been through some upgrades, looking for work that could return, which for them as a small player would yield an immediate boost to earnings at current day rates for that class of rig.

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    Bob – thanks, about to order another one.

  104. 104
    RobBanks Says:

    Hi Fellas
    Newbie here, really enjoying the site.
    Z- quick question. NOG came up yesterday and you wrote “So how about using CFPS of $3.76 for 2010, on a $13.17 = 3.5x which is damn cheap onshore, U.S., oily, and in a hot play.” That looks great, but today re: 31
    NOG

    EV / 2010 EBITDA at 9.5x
    P/ 2010 CFPS at 11x

    So I’m not understanding the difference between the 3.5x and 11x.

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    Rob – good question. Today is correct, yesterday was a mistake on my part. I thought it looked cheaper than my last read by a long shot and should have double checked it. Given their growth and the play, their valuation puts them more in line with the smaller Bakkens. It was cheap when I originally started tracking them but its now more fairly valued. I still expect them to be able to drive that multiple higher with the announcement on the quarterly call of some big well participations. But I flubbed that number yesterday.

  106. 106
    RobBanks Says:

    Ah – OK.

  107. 107
    West Says:

    Weekend line: over/under 1 on takeout of a public co with mkt cap in excess of $ 1 billion.

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    S&P moving into positive territory of a sudden.

    Midcap E&P moving green (or at least much less red).

  109. 109
    choices Says:

    #103-Z, do you have a link?

    Thanks.

  110. 110
    zman Says:

    West – hear ya, was thinking the same, betting we see more merger Monday activity.

  111. 111
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    west — you gots a target in mind???? care to share?????

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    re 109:

    http://www.amazon.com/EVGA-100-U2-UV16-A1-Supporting-1600×1200-Resolution/dp/B00191GZ8U

  113. 113
    zman Says:

    Rob – Here’s the takeover target list.

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/calendar/

    Pick the next to be taken out and get a free quarter. And by the way, welcome to the site! Please ask questions, it’s the way I learn.

  114. 114
    West Says:

    Local coffee talk is that OXY is preparing bid or in discussions with Permian Basin centric company to thwart unwanted advances from CVX. XOP or some other mutlicompany fund might be play as most names will move.

  115. 115
    zman Says:

    re 114 – then PXD would be player big enough there to be significant to CVX.

  116. 116
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    other than SD, who else is permian-basin centric these days?

  117. 117
    andy Says:

    Z – what might be the permian basin centric companies?

  118. 118
    andy Says:

    bop – re 116 like that thought. guess who has SD in the pool?? no stock tho!!

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    BOP – if they want oil then that’s Parker & Parsley and Mesa for you (PXD), there are other little names that come to mind but the big boys are unlikely to want to play small ball.

  120. 120
    West Says:

    PXD, CXO, XEC, ARD, WLL

  121. 121
    zman Says:

    West, yep, in that order too.

  122. 122
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Rig utilization over 80% is the line in the sand as to who has pricing power. My contact @ NE is NOT seeing pricing power just yet on their side. Everyones baclog is down from last year.

  123. 123
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    hmmm… interesting list to ponder. who’s cheapest? on a 2P basis?

  124. 124
    ram Says:

    Great Zman, now it will be a sleeples night – no more flubbing.

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    ZTRADES:

    HK – Added (20) of the Feb $29 calls (HKNH) for $0.60.

    HK – Added (15) of the Feb $28 calls (HKBG) for $0.90.

    Both done with the stock at $26.70. This is a play more on the stock, expecting news in the next month or so, perhaps before earnings on operations. Secondarily, its a play on flat to slightly up natural gas in the next several weeks. I see the chances of them doing another offering with their earnings release as remote and I see them beating their guidance to the upside yet again.

  126. 126
    ftc88 Says:

    Z – first post but been here for a looong while. What’s your take on BEXP share price before Jan exp? Thanks.

    (Have Jan 15’s at 23 cents. Had finger on sell button at .85 Wednesday just before market close when phone range. Market closed. Rest is history. Something about “stay focused” comes to mind. 🙂

  127. 127
    ratberto Says:

    97 – have used a HP 1320 on an Airport Express for five years. If I had to do it again I’d buy today’s HP laser (eg 2035) and plug it into the Airport express via USB

  128. 128
    West Says:

    Not that this matters but I would think that OXY would want Co that had potentional or existing C02 prospects since that is their thrust in this area. HES also has large CO2 flood ongoing in Wasson Field in Gaines CO, TX. There are a couple of independents such as Endeavor Energy which is second largest Wolfberry producer behind PXD and have had recent financial concerns. Just a note these good ol’ boys around here bet as much on the oil stocks as they do on drlg wells.

  129. 129
    zman Says:

    ftc – yeah, you been around since Aug 2007 and you have my thanks.

    Re BEXP – dunno. My sense is the market has taken a several day break and may move it higher next week. They could have 1 more well to announce next week as well, timing is right. The safe thing to do is sell now as the stock is still mired from three downgrades (and one upgrade) this week. I sort of doubt they get the pr out next week as they usually space them a bit more. Other potential saving graces are merger monday, and big demand for distillates with next week’s number. So I’m watching it.

  130. 130
    zman Says:

    re 127 – Thanks.

  131. 131
    ftc88 Says:

    Thanks. That’s my thoughts (hope) too. Down to the wire it is.

  132. 132
    zman Says:

    ftc – safe course, of course, is to punt.

  133. 133
    zman Says:

    IOC wide range today.

  134. 134
    zman Says:

    Lacker – minimal inflation risk:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-lacker-inflation-risks-minimal-2010-01-08

  135. 135
    zman Says:

    Not much in the way of eco data Monday and Tuesday next week, Beige Book Wednesday.

  136. 136
    scoop006 Says:

    Re # 120 today’s activity: PXD Feb $55c -3000 contracts, WLL Feb $75c-1000 contracts

  137. 137
    zman Says:

    Rig Count Watch

    Oil up 9 to 427, vs 341 a year ago.

    Gas up 22 to 781 vs 1239 a year ago.

    Horizontals up 12 to 583 vs 552 a year ago. Not a record but I’d bet it hits one by year end, 630 + range.

  138. 138
    reefguy Says:

    IOC-got DST stuck in hole, now unstuck and testing. Expect announcement Monday

  139. 139
    zman Says:

    re 136 and the OXY thought. PXD is double the size in TEV vs WLL. In proved reserves it is 4x the size. Easier to do an immediately accretive deal with the cheaper PXD. However, you don’t get the big Bakken angle with WLL.

    Conversely, you don’t get all the other stuff that comes along with PXD (like the Eagle Ford) if you do WLL.

    WLL does has the secondary (water) and tertiary (CO2 floods) projects which are working better than plan now, so their reserves may be sharply understated on that portion, which they have been working to increase their interest in.

  140. 140
    zman Says:

    Thanks Reef – was planning to take a small piece again.

  141. 141
    baylor3217 Says:

    Z Re 85 – I think this is why we saw the huge play in the 27.50 March calls a couple of weeks ago.

    I piggy backed on that and amwaiting and watching.

  142. 142
    reefguy Says:

    SD- is it trying to breakout??

  143. 143
    Gtinvest Says:

    Pxp- blackrock just reported a 10.18% interet in company.

  144. 144
    andy Says:

    z – isn’t XEC the stk WEST has been high on lately??

  145. 145
    West Says:

    yes

  146. 146
    zman Says:

    GT – They reported a 12% interest in NFX as well.

  147. 147
    zman Says:

    RIG, DO, NE, ATW charts all look the same, breaking out about now.

    PDS also in related space = wpw, nice move, don’t follow it, just have it on the market watch with the other four. Lots of appetite in the space.

    Note also the upgrades to ESV of late, BOP, you still sniffing there?

    Makes me wonder if RDC runs as well.

  148. 148
    Gtinvest Says:

    So what do you think it means much in either case since I am long both?

  149. 149
    zman Says:

    Not really but I guess it goes to credibility, after all, the Black Rock guys are smart. I used to field calls from Dan Rice on gas demand issues.

  150. 150
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Congrats, you have had a helluva week. Keep up the good work

  151. 151
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — been sniffing around HERO… so, yes.

  152. 152
    andy Says:

    WEST – just bot some PXD and XEC options as following u has been good. thks i want $100 on the under 1 on the merger as a hedge!!! do u still like ATP?

  153. 153
    andy Says:

    WEST – ATPG

  154. 154
    zman Says:

    Tom – thanks. Could have done without yesterday but them’s the risks. Last 4 weeks been almost nothing but up, thanks again XOM. Feels like pause time so I’m rolling lightly longer and killing the Jans, for the most part, a bit quicker than usual.

  155. 155
    zman Says:

    Things for me to do next week: get some Shelf exposure in calls. ATPG and SGY, and just maybe MCF on the list.

  156. 156
    West Says:

    I am at 1 on o/u and we play ties lose so borderline. No ATPG today. DNR, XEC, FST, IOC

  157. 157
    West Says:

    Hey Andy I’ll take the over and I’ll buy u a Zman Tshirt or viceversa , if 1 draw. If that is ok with Z?

  158. 158
    zman Says:

    I’d go with this one

    http://www.cafepress.com/cp/moredetails.aspx?showBleed=false&ProductNo=397302519&colorNo=1&pr=F

  159. 159
    ram Says:

    What would be an indirect catalyst for RDC?

  160. 160
    zman Says:

    re 159

    Continued stability in oil and now in natural gas prices, success in the ultra deep as their gorilla class rigs can hang the larger pipe loads.

  161. 161
    andy Says:

    RE 158 – what does he’s dead jim mean???

  162. 162
    andy Says:

    WEST u on – hope u win!!!!!!!!

  163. 163
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: higher risk trade given the time to expiry.

    Added (3) IOC – $85 calls (IOCAQ) for $2.15 with the stock at $83.

  164. 164
    ram Says:

    Do they make a good acquisition?

  165. 165
    zman Says:

    re 161. Guess you are not a Trek fan?

    Ok, how about this one?

    http://www.cafepress.com/cp/moredetails.aspx?showBleed=false&ProductNo=354564833&colorNo=4&pr=F

  166. 166
    zman Says:

    re 164 – who is they?

  167. 167
    ram Says:

    RDC?

  168. 168
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Any MLP’s you have an eye on?

  169. 169
    zman Says:

    re 167 – Not that I am aware of but I probably wouldn’t be in that space. I have not heard about the bigger offshore drillers looking to add via M&A, they seem to be content with newbuilds.

  170. 170
    zman Says:

    re 168. VNR mostly. I don’t see the Fed fighting inflation anytime soon via rate hikes so I’m not concerned that the price of something like LINE will need to come in to lift the yield to compete. But I may add VNR which has excess distribution coverage and only gets more coverage as oil rises, which I do expect albeit at a much more modest pace than it did in 2009.

  171. 171
    zman Says:

    Reef – I should have called that an R-trade. Thanks for continuing to bird dog and push.

  172. 172
    zman Says:

    Jerome – how do you like the HAL chart now, with an eye towards resistance?

  173. 173
    Dman Says:

    For VTZ & anyone else interested in metals: a palladium ETF just started trading: PALL

  174. 174
    zman Says:

    SWN and EOG warming into the close, in trail of the smaller names.

    Wow, hot water, what a concept.

  175. 175
    andy Says:

    z – 165 better!!!

  176. 176
    reefguy Says:

    ioc $5.50 swing

  177. 177
    bill Says:

    brrr its cold, anyone seen al gore?

    http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=60571000001&channel=VBLOG_BASTARDI&title=Worldwide%20Cold%20Not%20Seen%20since%20%2770s%20Ice%20Age%20Scare

  178. 178
    zman Says:

    re 175, that’s the uniform around here although I find it a touch boring.

    Ok, the other shirt:
    McCoy in Blue
    Kirk in Gold
    Barrel of oil which comes from dinosaurs among other things is the red shirt in the original series who always managed to get killed.
    Famous line, “He’s Dead Jim”. My own homage to oil and to Shatner, the best actor to ever come out of Canada.

  179. 179
    reefguy Says:

    exxi acting poorly

  180. 180
    zman Says:

    Bill – that’s the video I was referring to the other day, lol.

  181. 181
    zman Says:

    Reef – I’ll chalk it up to profit taking. Let’s see where its at in a few months after Davy and after the quarter.

  182. 182
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    exxi — price action just a little gift, ahead of next week’s action, imho.

    what do you think, reef??

  183. 183
    zman Says:

    No HAL Jan call sale by me until next week.

    Beerthirty, stay cold and have a great weekend.

  184. 184
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI — just a boatload of rumors swirling around that one… would love to see one of them come out of the closet on Monday. We shall see.

  185. 185
    bill Says:

    mcf reports earnings around 2/8 – 2/10

    im thinking of adding (options) the week before the numbers

    SD would make a good target,no?

    They already have a deal with OXY, alot of co2 in ng, now oily and tom ward like to sell shares. Getting 14 to 15 is better than what he has been doing in the past

    why wouldnt they be on oxy shopping list

  186. 186
    bill Says:

    It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to a 225 b draw next week. Probably ng gets pummeled, lol

  187. 187
    zman Says:

    Eli – your PBT.TO expanding it’s convert offering to increase Bakken capex. Any thoughts on those?

  188. 188
    zman Says:

    Bill – not that they wouldn’t and it does make some sense, I just think oil when people are talking about the Permian, nothing more than that in my comment.

  189. 189
    bill Says:

    pxp finished really strong

    Does Flores, the wheeler dealer do something here

    Hey thinking out loud, didnt oxy find oil in Kern county in Calif? Pxp has calif oil and playing in mmr’s gom plays.

    It would be foolish for PXP to sell here before they know what they have in the GOM.

  190. 190
    bill Says:

    I think OXY would prefer oil over gas as well. Sd just got oilier with the fst permian asset purchase.

    We shall see…..

  191. 191
    West Says:

    Bill, I may be wrong but I think OXY gets that Co2 for next to nothing for building the plant with a 10 year contract. SD is limited on production of a lot of their gas because of the high CO2 content that needs to be stripped. Something about the cow and the milk. That being said whenever the CO2 stripping plant is operational this becomes a much more valuable company. Maybe some think that they can wait until closer until completion of the plant before investing.Another problem with SD is that some institutional investors got taken to the edge for a look over the side and didn’t enjoy the ride. I would like to be long a little closer to start up date. Just my personal opinion.

  192. 192
    bill Says:

    pxp volume up today– over 3 m, been heavy all week

    7-Jan-10 30.38 30.56 29.99 30.33 1,726,900 30.33
    6-Jan-10 29.76 30.86 29.76 30.56 3,317,600 30.56
    5-Jan-10 28.83 30.25 28.76 29.89 3,082,400 29.89
    4-Jan-10 28.09 28.88 28.09 28.88 1,970,000 28.88
    31-Dec-09 28.25 28.37 27.64 27.66 991,200 27.66
    30-Dec-09 28.14 28.31 27.90 28.17 603,400 28.17
    29-Dec-09 28.55 28.78 28.28 28.31 1,243,900 28.31
    28-Dec-09 28.83 28.96 28.33 28.51 1,124,100 28.51
    24-Dec-09 28.25 28.72 28.20 28.66 642,100 28.66

  193. 193
    zman Says:

    Re 191. Very well said, what I’ve been thinking since I sold much lower than here.

  194. 194
    bill Says:

    191

    >is that some institutional investors got taken to the edge for a look over the side and didn’t enjoy the ride.

    I was on that same train, and it wasn’t fun.

    I was thinking the same thing as you, about getting back midyear re: oxy plant start up, I only re-entered the name due to the rally in ng prices and cold weather coupled with the fact it got taken to the woodshed for selling stock and the fst purchase. It went down from mid 14 to the 8’s … ouch!!

  195. 195
    bill Says:

    http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/posted/archive/2010/01/08/breaking-rcmp-make-arrest-in-b-c-pipeline-bombing-probe.aspx

  196. 196
    zman Says:

    $10 KP II stuff updated on the holdings page:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/holdings/holdings-wiki/

    Cash now 41%, Feb calls 38%, Jan calls 21%

  197. 197
    elijahwc Says:

    ATPG: Insiders have a lot but still a late Friday Ugh for this one….Chm Bulmahn sells 443,289 shrs yesterday.

    On #187 PBT.TO on record that BENLF is not enough to fill the plate in the Cardium. Makes me think BXE.TO(BLLXF), BNE.TO(BNEFF), NAE.UN.TO(NOIGF), WTL.AC(WTLFF), of which I am long BNE which yields C5.8% and NAE which yields C7.7%. Bakken better done on our side of the border as the research is better with the wildZ crew. Therefore interest in PBT is in obtaining an insite into the “thought leader” as relates to the Cardium which I believe to be where the Bakken was two years ago.

  198. 198
    bill Says:

    197 is a wow

    They tell the world the stock is worth 102 then he dumps

    I’m baffled why he would sell so much with telemark coming online in a few months.

    Must be an ugly q4 coming…

  199. 199
    zman Says:

    Wow CRED. Better to have a little acreage in the Bakken than big wells these days, lol.

  200. 200
    bill Says:

    Bahken has been on fire no doubt. I think we will have similar hysteria in eagle ford

  201. 201
    West Says:

    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MzYzOTcyfENoaWxkSUQ9MzU4MjMwfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

  202. 202
    West Says:

    The above link is for new DNR presentation, go to slide 12 for valuation. I might be wrong but this screams PXD to me .

  203. 203
    West Says:

    Marcellus vs Haynesville………….http://www.ogfj.com/index/article-display.articles.oil-gas-financial-journal.e-__p.unconventional.oil-shale.marcellus-shale.marcellus-projects.html….

  204. 204
    skimo Says:

    Barrons article below, key point is a rather surprising and rather unbelievable comment regarding the administration imposing a tariff on imported oil:Deutsche: Most Depressing Oil Conference Ever. By Tiernan Ray
    Following up on a Deutsche Bank energy conference in Boston yesterday, the bank’s oil analyst, Paul Sankey, writes in a note today that a mutual fund manager attending the conference remarked that “This is the most depressing conference I’ve ever been to,” given the outlook for sluggish growth holding back refiners’ stocks.

    Sankey remarks that management of refiners Tesoro (TSO) and Valero Energy (VLO) did not “sugar coat” their presentations. (The executives spoke in closed-door meetings with analysts and the buy-side.) The conference was well attended, with fewer than 4% of refining companies not showing. Which Sankey takes as evidence “refiners are hot with the buy side.” He notes a bright spot came in the luncheon speech from European refiner Petroplus’s CEO, who offered that there’s a likelihood of Washington imposing tariffs on U.S. oil imports, which would be bullish for U.S. refiners.

  205. 205
    zman Says:

    Skimo – what’s the date on that article? Scary thought on the tariff on oil imports, good way to start trade wars with 30 or 40 countries at once.

  206. 206
    bill Says:

    it would fit

    tax the evil oil companies
    raise the cost of oil
    they want 5 dollar gasoline so they can then blame the evil oil companies for the price rise
    higher gasoline makes battery operated pelosi mobiles more attractive
    only users of gas powered suvs allowed will be govt officials on offical duty

    that would help us companies so they must be hit with a windfall profits tax

    this will all be rationalized that our gas is too cheap and encourages waste

  207. 207
    zman Says:

    Bill – I can’t count the number of times I’ve heard officials say that raising the cost of leases or imposing cap and trade limits on U.S. refiners (with only half of that same burden placed on imported gasoline) will NOT raise the price for consumers or hurt domestic industry. They will say that an import tariff won’t be passed along to consumers; maybe they will just regulate prices which is popular in place like Iran and China. So you have nothing to worry about, lol.

  208. 208
    zman Says:

    Other shirt choices for Andy:

    Got Bakken?
    http://www.cafepress.com/ZmansEnergy.354564833#

    Got Shale?
    http://www.cafepress.com/ZmansEnergy.412031269#

  209. 209
    elijahwc Says:

    How Determining Oil & Gas Valuations are done: Cardium

    http://www.selfdirectedinvestor.com/articles/?a=determiningoila.htm&b=20100108

  210. 210
    skimo Says:

    ref 205 article dated jan 8 2010

  211. 211
    choices Says:

    Interesting article on trying to decipher Bill Gross-he thinks March maybe when Fed “Attempts” to begin exit strategy.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/181306-deciphering-current-thinking-of-pimco-s-bill-gross?source=article_sb_popular

    Interesting alleged quote: “What amazes me most of all is that politicians can be bought so cheaply”

    Heh-who knew?

  212. 212
    skimo Says:

    re 211 Gotta love the Robert Palmer references? Was the 2009 fed spending so fine that there’s no tellin where the money went?
    I’m afraid the video is now ruined forever though.-Ha

  213. 213
    VTZ Says:

    Oil and Gold up big due to China numbers… could be a big Monday to start the week.

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