07
Jan

Thursday – Natural Gas Preview & Oil Review

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Sentiment Watch: Equity futures are trending a little lower this morning although retail sales appear to be coming in better than expected for many. Jobless claims came in at 434,000 vs a 410,000 forecast. I have been raising cash and moving out of January calls and will continue to do so with the goal of being mostly out of January expiries before the Payrolls data tomorrow. I would expect the market to be somewhat subdued today ahead of that Payrolls data. 

 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Preview
  4. EIA Oil Inventory Review
  5. Stuff We Care About Today - Catalyst List update, RRC, Pritchard schedule
  6. Odds & Ends


Holdings Watch:

  • $10KP II:
    • $36,800
    • 58% Cash
    • The Current View of options held on the Holdings Tab has been updated. I continue to shift to more cash and less of the front month options.

Yesterday's Trades:

  • HAL – Sold (20 – all) of the HAL $31 January Calls for $1.51, up 104%. Will likely punt the $33’s soon and look for a point in the next few days to roll longer but with no real rush on that.
  • NFX – Added (10) February $55 calls (NFXBK) for $1.25 (easily on the mid) with the stock at $50.95. I’m thinking they are overdue for an ops update, and last year they gave guidance mid January. I continue to hold my Feb $50 position here and the common.
  • ANR - Sold the (5 -all) January $45 calls (ANRAI) for $5.30, up 247%, with the stock at $50.20. I plan to reload in another coal name or two either after Payrolls on Friday or next week. 

 

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil rallied $1.41 to close at $83.18 yesterday, despite the release of some pretty lackluster numbers by the EIA. The front month contract now looks like this. I am mildly surprised by the rally yesterday in the wake of the EIA data (more on that below along with some things that can stall the rally at least in the near term). This morning crude is trading about 50 cents lower an hour before the open on weak equity futures and a rally in dollar.

 

Natural gas jumped 37 cents to close at 6.01 yesterday, the first time gas has closed north of $6 since October. Gas now looks like this but the period above $6 may be limited to the time below normal temperatures in the U.S., Europe and Asia. Today's storage number is probably less important in this support than is next week's as it contains the New Year's Day holiday. This morning gas is trading flat.

Natural Gas Preview

  • My number: 145 to 150 Bcf; should be 200+ next week. 
    • History:
      • Last Week: 124 Bcf withdrawal
      • Last Year: 67 Bcf withdrawal
      • 5 Year Average: 75 Bcf withdrawal
      • 5 year Hi: 20 Bcf withdrawal
      • 5 year Low: 171 Bcf withdrawal
  • Street Consensus: 150 Bcf

EIA Oil Inventory Review


ZComment: On the whole a bearish looking set of numbers.  If I had to come up with a bullish bit of sentiment it would be, and this is for the very near term, that distillate demand just about has to pick up next week.  We have heat  oil  demand and we have inventory restocking (trucks are going to be rolling) that are going to have to be consuming distillates. Gasoline? Probably not. In fact, in the near term, demand probably stays flat or inches lower. My sense is that all the pre holiday unemployed were out shopping and now they are sitting around, looking for work online, and/or playing xbox (and not driving).   The domestic refining group is doing a really good job of keeping utilization low and this likely means crude will continue to pile up at Cushing. There should put a short term limit on further price gains for WTI but I've been saying that for awhile and the market seems not to care. 

CRUDE OIL

 

 

GASOLINE

 

 

 

 

DISTILLATES


 

 

Stuff We Care About Today

 

Pritchard Energy Conference Day 2

  • Link to presentations
  • Of note today: (all times EST)
    • MCF - 2:50 pm
    • RRC - 3:15
    • KOG - 3:40
    • PXD - 5:20
    • CLR - 7:35

RRC Updates Financial Position:

  • YE 09 Debt at $1.71 B, down $83 mm from YE 08
  • Hedged for 69% of expected production with $5.53 floors
  • Makes it one of the better hedged, at least in terms of quantity if not in terms of price, gassy E&Ps so far this year.

 

 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • BEXP - cut to Hold by Natixis

212 Responses to “Thursday – Natural Gas Preview & Oil Review”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Site is moving really slow this morning, working it.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Bill put this on yesterday’s post:

    Jack Gerard, president of the American Petroleum Institute, the industry’s dominant trade group, said the decision would make it more difficult to produce domestic oil and gas and would be a setback for the economy. “Under the guise of offering certainty for investors, Interior Secretary Salazar has taken steps to further delay and limit American energy resources for all Americans,” Mr. Gerard said in a statement from Washington.

    He said that in the year the Obama administration had been in office, federal revenue from oil and gas leases in the region known as the intermountain West had fallen by more than 80 percent.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    What concerned me more than the changes to the lease lengths is the decision by the BLM to decide where leasing will occur. Instead of offering leases on Federal land as usual, there will be another level of review (think jobs creation program right there) which will make sure that current drilling is nearer to old drilling. Want to go do a big step out, find something new? Good luck.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    NG seeing a little profit taking, down a dime now, in advance of the storage number. Can’t really fault traders on that as this week is likely to be a lackluster result despite the weather and it was up 40 cents + if you count the overnight session.

    FST on the tape with 2010 guidance. This was strong yesterday so I’d say they were a little leaky on the news front. Production guidance is q409 to q410 of 10 to 12%, or 0 to 2% YoY which is ok.

    Budget breaks down about 1/4 each to Granite Wash, Haynesville, Alberta. Over 50% on horizontal, not surprising. Still no info on the 3rd GW well mentioned in the Catalyst list.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    BMO cuts BEXP to Underperform from Market Perform.

  6. 6
    JD Says:

    Geitner story drawing significant attention: (this is a fwd fro CS) AIG said in a draft of a regulatory filing that the insurer paid banks, which included Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale SA, 100 cents on the dollar for credit-default swaps they bought from the firm. The New York Fed crossed out the reference, according to the e-mails, and AIG excluded the language when the filing was made public on Dec. 24, 2008. The e-mails were obtained by Representative Darrell Issa, ranking member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.”

    Geithner been in the hot seat but has retained support of the administration. This will be spun as a concerted cover up of backdoor bailout of Goldman Sachs (and others) through the New York Fed. Given the current political climate you have to think there is a good chance Obama backs away from Geithner. I doubt that will be good for markets, at least initially. The stock market did very well on his announcement and although it stumble after his vague February 2009 “plan” was released, the bull market started with his more detailed version laid out in march. This will also put more pressure on the Bernanke reappointment. The uncertainty generally should only add to the case for steepening/more term premium. The front-end could do relatively better if risk assets get nervous about this.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Thanks JD

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    BOP – any HT and TT color?

  9. 9
    West Says:

    CLR……———- Press Release below
    ———————————————

    Continental Resources Continues to Improve Initial Well Production
    Rates in the North Dakota Bakken

    Hendrickson 1-36H Sets New Company Production Record for Bakken

    Company-Operated 4Q09 Three Forks/Sanish Wells Average 1,242 Barrels
    of Oil Equivalent per Day

    ENID, Okla., Jan. 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — Continental Resources,
    Inc. [CLR] today announced a 29 percent increase in initial production
    rates for fourth quarter 2009 wells completed in the North Dakota
    Bakken Shale play, compared with initial well rates for the third
    quarter of 2009.

    Continental participated in completing 17 gross wells (6.3 net) in
    North Dakota in the fourth quarter of 2009. They produced an average
    980 Boepd (barrels of oil equivalent per day) during their initial
    seven-day test periods, compared with an average of 761 Boepd for the
    third quarter of 2009. The Company noted that final well results for
    the fourth quarter of 2009 may vary slightly when it reports year-end
    results, because data from a few additional wells are still being
    collected and may be reported as fourth quarter 2009 completions.

    On a year-over-year basis, the 980 Boepd initial production average
    for these fourth quarter 2009 wells was 80 percent higher than the
    average of 546 Boepd for wells completed in the fourth quarter of
    2008.

    All initial production period results in this press release are seven
    consecutive day averages.

    Continental-operated wells produced even stronger results for the
    fourth quarter of 2009. Continental completed eight gross wells (4.6
    net) in North Dakota during the quarter, with six gross wells
    targeting the Three Forks/Sanish (TFS) zone:

    — Hendrickson 1-36H (95% WI) in McKenzie Co. – 1,990 Boepd; —
    Simmental 1-21H (59% WI) in McKenzie Co. – 1,271 Boepd; — Hartman
    1-28H (37% WI) in Dunn Co. – 1,225 Boepd; — Tande 1-23H (47% WI) in
    Williams Co. – 1,148 Boepd; — Schroeder 1-34H (53% WI) in Divide Co.
    – 915 Boepd; — Cuskelly 1-7H (47% WI) in Dunn Co. – 901 Boepd.

    “These are outstanding results, with our TFS wells averaging 1,242
    Boepd in their initial production test periods,” said Harold Hamm,
    Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. “The Hendrickson 1-36H in
    McKenzie County established a new single-well record for Continental
    with initial production of 1,990 Boepd.”

    In terms of the Continental-operated wells, completions involved 18
    frac stages and approximately 100,000 pounds of sand and proppant
    injected per stage. In addition, the Company noted that its two
    strongest wells for the quarter, the Hendrickson 1-36H and Simmental
    1-21H, are in northeast McKenzie Co., an area in the Bakken where the
    Company acquired additional acreage in 2009.

    Continental’s drilling efficiency for the fourth quarter of 2009
    remained in line with its third quarter 2009 results, averaging
    approximately 24 days from spud to rig release.

    Continental’s dual-reservoir development in the North Dakota Bakken
    play continued in the fourth quarter with the completion of the Omar
    2-1H (46% WI) in Williams County.

    The Omar 2-1H targeted the Middle Bakken zone and produced 694 Boepd
    in its initial test period. It was drilled parallel to and offset from
    the Omar 1-1H, which was completed as a TFS producer in the third
    quarter of 2008. The Omar 1-1H has produced a cumulative 137.3 Mboe as
    of year-end 2009.

    The Company also announced the completion of the Traxel 1-31H (74% WI)
    well in Mercer County, an exploratory test on the southeastern
    perimeter of the Bakken play, where there has been minimal drilling
    activity. The Traxel 1-31H was horizontally drilled and completed in
    the Scallion limestone zone, which is located immediately above the
    Upper Bakken shale zone, and produced 71 Boepd in its initial test
    period. The Company initially tested the Middle Bakken shale zone, but
    did not encounter significant oil shows.

    “This discovery in the Scallion limestone establishes the potential
    for another producing reservoir in the Bakken petroleum system of the
    Williston Basin. Productivity would have to increase for it to be
    economic,” Mr. Hamm said. Continental plans to monitor activity by
    other operators in this part of the play before drilling additional
    test wells.

    The Company has begun drilling its first operated well in western
    Williams County, North Dakota, where other operators have recently
    reported strong well results.

    In the past six months, Continental has acquired an additional 70,000
    net acres in leases strategically located on the western and eastern
    edges of the Nesson Anticline, as well as expanding westward into
    Williams County. Continental currently has 483,000 net acres leased in
    the North Dakota Bakken.

    Mr. Hamm noted that Continental’s drilling program is accelerating
    rapidly, as planned. “We increased to 12 operated rigs overall at year-
    end 2009, with seven of those in the North Dakota Bakken,” Mr. Hamm
    said. “We plan to increase to 23 operated rigs by mid-2010, at which
    time we plan to have 15 in the North Dakota Bakken. Six rigs will be
    focused on ECO-Pad development in the play.”

    The Company’s ECO-Pad(TM) concept consists of a single drilling pad
    located on the shared boundary of abutting north/south, 1,280-acre
    spacing units. Four wells will be drilled from each ECO-Pad, with one
    Middle Bakken and one Three Forks/Sanish well each into the north
    unit, and a similar pair of wells drilled into the south unit. The ECO-
    Pad approach is expected to reduce well cost and to allow for a longer
    horizontal bore in each well, generating higher initial productivity
    and reserves.

    “We’re very excited at our opportunity to grow production and proved
    reserves in North Dakota in 2010. With continued strength in crude oil
    prices, we look forward to accelerating our activity and setting the
    stage for additional growth in 2011,” Mr. Hamm said.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    BOP confirms the BMO guy has been behind the ball the entire journey on BEXP. Target is $10 and has been single digits for some time and market perform rating forever. So miss the ride and then try to get some notoriety for your lateness by telling people to sell what you failed to tell them to buy.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    West – what am I looking for in that CLR press release from yesterday?

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    Since I’m in here by myself today, I’ll be quiet too. Listening to CRZO call from yesterday, will go listen to some others before today’s presentations start in a few hours.

    Watching BEXP come in to the mid $14s on these two downgrades.

  13. 13
    West Says:

    Thought that was a little long , about half down they talk about Traxel well that is south of KOG’s #9 and the Scallion Limestone or Lodgepole formation above Bakken. Just an fyi for those with a interest. Lots of other infor on Williston Basin. Had this already been posted?

  14. 14
    ram Says:

    Do you think the CLR update will support BEXP from dropping too far.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    West – No, just saw the pr yesterday. Missed the Traxel comment.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Ram – No.

  17. 17
    ram Says:

    If investors still want to be in a small bakken, would they jump out of BEXP and move into NOG maybe?

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Perhaps. This is just knee jerk selling in a soft market.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    BEXP has filled the gap up from yesterday’s news.

  20. 20
    ram Says:

    If Cushing is getting bloated, why do refiners still buy imports versus draw from cushing?

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Re 20. Different facilities require different grades of crude. Cushing is in Oklahoma and is only a small piece of overall storage. It is only connected to midwest refiners via pipeline. But it is the price point for U.S. crude.

  22. 22
    ram Says:

    O.K. I was just thinking that at some point with more domestic oil coming on line, the economy still soft, that there would be a move to slow down imports.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    Imports have been running low for awhile now. It’s the second chart in the Thursday post in the EIA oil inventory review section. Despite all the OPEC cheating, that extra oil is not coming to the U.S.

    Gas numbers in 10 minutes.

  24. 24
    bill Says:

    Was away this am, now back

    a few interesting companies today at pritchard

    gmxr,mcf,rrc,kog,atpg,wres,ioc, etc will keep me busy

    It will be intersting to see what the ng number is. I read somewhere a weekend day is 30 bcf less demand than a mid week day. Last week was 1 less holiday so 30 more than 124 would be 154 weather being held constant.

    The yoy inventories should fall fast with the cold weather.

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    I will probably do one more WildZ on BEXP as I think the shares still have some upside in them as do some analysts. They have further near term catalysts in the form of more wells which could be out this month, possibly as early as next week.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    If the gas number comes in higher than say, 160, I’ll be looking at a quick trade in SWN.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Sounds like TPH is looking for mid 200 Bcf withdrawal next week and the week after, which is what I was looking for with my brief comment in the post.

  28. 28
    bill Says:

    I was reveiewing your catylst list.

    Regarding HK and other ng companies,

    does low (2009 ng avg price) affect reserve levels ie will this drive lower reserves due to price revisions?

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    adding to 26, and in HAL.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Bill – It will for some yes, not HK as the raw growth there should get them something akin to 60 to 70% reserve growth, or nearly 1 to 1 with production growth. I still say people will give companies a pass on bashing them for price related reserve revisions, especially this year.

  31. 31
    bill Says:

    sears up 11 to 100 today–wow

    i might have to diversify , lol

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    EIA Gas Storage

    NG just before the report: Down 11 cents at $5.90.

    Withdrawal: 153 Bcf

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    Gas immediately comes back to even on the day and then backs slightly. Sigh of relief heard from gas bulls.

  34. 34
    bill Says:

    153 seems ok

  35. 35
    bill Says:

    agreed- i feel the same sigh of relief

    in fact i think the stocks will rally

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: WILDZ

    Added (20) BEXP $15 January Calls for $0.40 which is my average cost in the position, with the stock at $14.65.

  37. 37
    baylor3217 Says:

    Anyone have some thoughts on POT in the near term? It has had a huge almost 15% run in the past 4 days and broke through what seems to be near term resistance.

    I’m thinking about taking a position in January calls on the put side.

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    NG up 2 cents and back above $6.

  39. 39
    bill Says:

    If we do 200 + next week, then the yoy surplus is way down to about 140 bcf surplus from about 400 at the high

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    Baylor – I sent JD a note, he’s been good with the POT for awhile now.

  41. 41
    baylor3217 Says:

    Thanks Z

  42. 42
    bill Says:

    I dont follow pot but its a so called “commodity” stock that runs hard and fast

  43. 43
    bill Says:

    looks like the ng stocks rallied anywhere from .5 % to 1 % on the news

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Re 39

    Storage surplus just took a ding with these numbers.

    YoY was 13.1% last week, now 10.1%
    Vs 5Yr was 13.6% last week, now 11.3%

    Next week should be that 200+ coming up against last year’s 94 Bcf.

  45. 45
    andy Says:

    bill – if we do 200 next week and 200 the following week, what does that do to the surplus?

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    Bill – also note, crude rallied off its lows with the number. Gives that market a lot of hope that next week distillate demand jumps. Especially after last week’s lousy numbers.

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Andy the numbers will be bigger than 200 Bcf most likely, but using those that takes the YoY surplus down to 6%. If both numbers are 250 Bcf withdrawals, then you are down to a 2.4% YoY surplus.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Missed both my HAL and SWN quick trades on gas, not feeling like chasing unless for a day trade, not with Payrolls tomorrow.

    Curious as to people’s thoughts on Payrolls. Has anyone seen anything on what happens to the dollar if we get positive jobs tomorrow. Does it rally since the economy is more on the mend, or fall because the Fed will have to print more to keep it on the mend. I would guess that if the number comes in negative the market may fall back a bit but the dollar would too. Just musing while listening to yesterday’s conf calls.

    West coast conferences should get out of bed early for the rest of us. I doubt anyone in NY is going to listen to presentations at 7 pm tonight.

  49. 49
    bill Says:

    the next 4 weeks from eia

    the surplus is 10.1 % or 3123 vs 2837 = 289

    so 2 weeks of 200 would be 180 less and it could be better.

    94
    176
    186
    195

    ——————————-

    Maybe people will start talking about that.

    I added to my sd calls, they fell too hard too fast.

    I want to get back into HK , no one seems to be paying attention to them

  50. 50
    isleworth Says:

    Z- know you’re busy with Pritchard etc, but wondered if you had looked at CXPO prospectus and had any thoughts. Tks.

  51. 51
    bill Says:

    my math was off would be 130 less with 200 and 200 at 159. As z said about 6 %

  52. 52
    bill Says:

    z- re sd

    3rd times a charm 🙂

    I hope….

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    Isle – I have not given it my full attention yet. Am talking with some folks about it, will get back with something next week there.

  54. 54
    bill Says:

    catalyst list:

    Of all the open items, which if hit would have the best impact?

    Id say the mmr items and that has the biggest impact to exxi, would help mmr and pxp as well

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Bill – yep, watching HK, I expect an interesting 4Q call, might be something out sooner. They should be drilling their new shale play north of the Eagle Ford fairway at present.

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    …and Isle, if HK comes with a big well at Red Hawk (Zavala Cnty, TX) that would be good for CXPO as well.

    The first Red Hawk well may be at TD by now, it should have spud last month. This is an Eagle Ford oil prospect.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Bill – re catalyst list. Yes, probably Davy Jones. I think after that ROSE with a Montana Bakken and #56 above would be big.

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    NG back to profit taking, down 8 cents. Next week’s report is going to be very interesting.

  59. 59
    baylor3217 Says:

    Re HK, there was significant action in the march 27.50 calls about 2 weeks ago.

  60. 60
    bill Says:

    gmxr has no new slides on web and cant hear pritchard.

    You have to wonder what the hell is wrong with them

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Bill – Maybe they are saving themselves for tne BMO or Goldman conferences next week.

  62. 62
    bill Says:

    interesting symbol for rose feb 20’s

    just in time for Valentines day

    -RSEBD

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    62 = lol

  64. 64
    bill Says:

    61.. I assume it costs them money to attend and objective is to get information out, then……

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    Market looks pretty stagnant in front of payrolls tomorrow, probably no more trades for me today.

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    The company gets to go for free as do the brokerage clients (other than you have to pay them with commissions).

  67. 67
    Hoss Says:

    Baylor #37

    Scotiabank’s monthly commodity price index and report is a quick read and does a decent job of covering all the commodities – including potash.

    http://www.scotiacapital.com/English/bns_econ/bnscomod.pdf

  68. 68
    bill Says:

    mcf on now–

    contango oil

  69. 69
    baylor3217 Says:

    Thanks Hoss

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    Bill – just tried to buy a little, just about impossible to split those fat call spreads.

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    Peak is, as usual, hilarious.

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    I’m sitting on the bid in the $15 Bexp jan calls if anyone wants to sell me some.

  73. 73
    VTZ Says:

    I beat you to it at 0.35.

  74. 74
    VTZ Says:

    But you got filled anyways.

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: WildZ (high risk)

    BEXP – added (30) more BEXP $15 calls for 0.35 with the stock at 14.50. This is a high risk trade at this point. I now have 100 calls at a little under 40 cents average cost. These could easily go to zero as they expire next week. If it does it certainly won’t kill me as its $3000 from here to $0. They should have more news this month and possibly next week.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    NG back off 11 cents, same as before the number release.

  77. 77
    VTZ Says:

    Thoughts on EOG here?

  78. 78
    elijahwc Says:

    On AEZ. Hi Z & checking in on your group of most excellent O&G mo-mo’s. Is this your group taking advantage of RMD while he is on the slopes? lol

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    Bill – great presentation as always from MCF. If I had a complaint I would say that it is a timeless presentation. It doesn’t change much and it almost doesn’t talk about their prospects or their current production base. Its all numbers, no hype, and very hard to argue with. But it would sound the same in a high price or a low price environment. Don’t get me wrong, I like it but he could stand to flavor it up with operations stuff and maybe cut the joke count by half.

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    V – Are you referring to my small call position or how I think the stock will do long term?

  81. 81
    bill Says:

    well he had a couple new jokes

    Stressed the same themes,

    Low cost provider
    interests alligned with shareholders
    Intent to grow company thru the drill bit
    112 m cap budget will hold bach share repurchases but will get more active if ng prices fall
    say he has no idea where ng wil trade

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    Eli – Re AEZ, good call on RMD’s part but I never bought a share (went with producing acreage instead via WLL, BEPX, NOG, KOG). AEZ is out with another barely newsworthy pr today though. Once they start drilling in the Bakken I’m sure we will get updates when the driller hits the head.

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Bill – he’s great, I just wish he’d do it in two parts, breaking down the wells and prospects after the Peak ratio stuff. 12 year R/P due to size, say more about that stuff man, give us the next string of fault blocks you are going to drill. At least talk about the 3 dude prospects coming up.

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    Listening to RRC

  85. 85
    VTZ Says:

    Not the immediate term but looking out in the next few months.

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    I think you will see them increasingly get the nod as a gas play turning into an oil play. There should be some more big Bakken well news from them including TFS news.

    They should see higher rates out of the combo oil play in the n. Barnett as well

    On the gas side, look for news only out of the Haynesville/E. Tx. I would not look for anything out of Canada this time.

    Given where prices have gone, they should be able to announce that they will trough a little earlier than expected in North American gas as they have been letting it slide. This could be mean the 4Q release comes with a small bump in growth, but I do mean small.

    The name has a very clean balance sheet, less than 20% net debt to total cap, and most of its actions are low risk. They are drilling in the EFS now but I doubt you hear about that until October.

    CFPS estimates should march up this year making them less expensive as they stand still in the $90 to $100 range.

  87. 87
    bill Says:

    79> I agree 100 % I resisted the temptation to look ahead in the briefing.. as i was listening, I was pleading out loud, tell me whats going on with Contango!! Tell me some operations stuff!!

    He is a steady as you go type of guy, not flashy and what you see is what you get.

    On the other hand, its small and he isnt going to change his style…

    4 gom wells ,1 done successful, 3 to go
    3 farm ins (already announced , in negotiation)
    and the 15 well package in the cotton valley.

    The story was and still is, low cost, unhedged, and proved producing reserves. They will make money down to 2.50, and alot of money at 6 or more.

    he had a slide with hypothetical numbers

    75 mmcfe day 27 b per year at 5 bucks

    well he is at 80 can go to 100 and ng is at 6 and the strip is 6 +

    He is pulling in a half million a day in cash or over 11 per share so and trading at less than a cheap 5 x ebitda.

    No options were awarded to him.. He is one of a kind, imho and thats why I like him and contango.

    I appreciate your comments in 79.

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    RRC ok, not much new.

    KOG in 10 minutes.

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    Ram – I would suspect some of the BEXP money is heading to the much cheaper WLL (at least on CF it is).

  90. 90
    bill Says:

    one final comment

    One thing I do worry about with contango is thats its a value trap.

    No one can buy shares as there is not much out there. Its thinly traded

    So institutions cant build a position.

  91. 91
    bill Says:

    i was lucky to get some rosebuds at 1.60.

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    KOG call on

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    re 91 – good luck on those man.

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    KOG – see pressure on prices, services becoming more difficult to get.

  95. 95
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Midday Update

    Desk update – color remains consistent – there is a firm bid to the tape and any weakness being used as a buying opportunity; prices remain resilient (but people not chasing prices higher). Activity continues to pick back up although mostly on back of hedgies (vanillas still relatively quiet and waiting for jobs tomorrow and earnings next week). The big theme of the week remains tech vs. banks (banks up nearly 9% on the week vs. tech flat) = leadership shifting (which is being seen as healthy/encouraging for sustainability of the rally).
    Equity Update – similar trends as Mon-Wed – financials catch a strong bid (esp. the banks – the bank index is up ~2.5% Thurs and is up 8.5% on the week alone); the overall sp500 financials are up ~1% today. On the flip side in tech, the space remains for sale, esp. the semis (the SOX is down 1.3% on the day); desk continues to see rotation away from tech and into fins (this has been the theme so far of ’10). Tech selling remains benign though and more profit taking vs. aggressive selling/shorting. Away from the fin/tech complex, retailers catching a bid on back of the strong same-store-sales – leading retailers today SHLD +11%, BBBY +9%, TJX +5.5%, ROST +4.6%. Materials are laggards, dipping ~0.7% (the China rate action, along w/Citi’s AA downgrade this morning, is weighing). Industrials up 0.5% (driving things there are 3%+ moves in MAS, BA, and GE). GE’s 4.5% rally getting a lot of attention (BA’s plane order #s could be helping….also GE moving in sympathy w/the financials). Builders are up ~5% on the day (on back of pos. earnings from the group). Trans off 1% – airlines are up further (up 2%) but some rails/truckers are weak.

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    BOP/West – KOG talking about Shell cores on their acreage that show oil in the Three Forks.

  97. 97
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — thanks! On KOG call now… hope Lynn can throw a little enthusiasm into it

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    NG down 20 cents now. Volatile.

  99. 99
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — TFS well in “late 1Q”… that would be great. Need to up the economics of their acreage.

  100. 100
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — will have ALL wells hooked up by EOY2010. That would be awesome. Didn’t know they were planning to hook up all wells. Need to capture the liquids from the nat gas they are flaring.

  101. 101
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — finally following BEXP up the # of frac stages ladder. Sounds like BEXP really did crack the code.

  102. 102
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    wish they would let us sit in on the Q&A… oh well. Thoughts on the KOG presentation, z?

  103. 103
    West Says:

    On Shell cores one is offset to Mocassin Creek wells and the other is offset to wells 3&4 and Peak ND current 3Fks well.

  104. 104
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Gotta say, looking at the stock price action, Lynn didn’t “wow” the crowd. But, it’s nice to hear KOG start to emphasize the dual production opportunities of the Bakken and TFS wells, drilled from the same pad. Should help up the ROCE overall.

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    re 102 – Fine, liked slide 9

  106. 106
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Slide #9 is a billboard advertisement for more multi-frac’ed long laterals, I think. Again, BEXP figured that out before the rest.

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    IOC slipping

  108. 108
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HT’s comments this morning were that the mrkt today would see “choppy, with intermittent opportunities for profits.”

    Almost sounds like a weather forecast.

    Basically, players mostly on the sidelines, ahead of tomorrow’s Jobs Number.

  109. 109
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Bloomberg article this morning… Jeff Rubin (former CIBC chief economist qui accurately predicted oil’s surge during the past decade) expects crude to reack $90/bbl this quarter and $100 by YE2010.

    I personally agree with that outlook. Maybe we could start another contest, along with the M&A one, where we guess the price of oil at the end of each quarter. What do you think, z? I’ll go with Jeff R’s $90/bbl.

  110. 110
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    typo… qui = who

  111. 111
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    (appear to have been thinking in French for a sec there…)

  112. 112
    jiveyjr Says:

    man alive it’s cold here on Cowtown…24 degrees with about 12 degree wind chill

  113. 113
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jiveyjr — it’s snowing here, in North Detroit… kinda pretty. No wind, just cold. This is good for nat gas, but tough on gasoline sales… who wants to drive in this weather?

  114. 114
    zman Says:

    re 109: I wrote this last week as part of my 2010 thoughts:

    Oil Has A Better, More Stable Year As Well. Oil just had a pretty good year rallying 110% from start to finish. This of course came on the heals of its worst year in history. While natural gas is largely still a local fuel as far as North America is concerned oil is significantly more global and therefore less dependent on a strong recovery in the U.S. to drive demand higher. Asian demand shows few signs of abating. OPEC continues to cheat on quotas to supply this demand seems to have found a happy medium to keep prices firm while doing so. OPEC spare capacity remains higher and major capacity expansion projects are being pushed back in several countries. I expect OPEC to boost its official quota levels by mid year. Of the bigger Non-OPEC players, production is growing in the U.S., Canada, and Russia but declining in Mexico. While still positive, I expect the pace of Non-OPEC production to slow in 2010. Meanwhile, global oil consumption is likely to rebound by just over a percent without the benefit of growth from the West. So over the year, rising consumption meets slightly rising production and oil walks slowly higher. If the U.S. recovery is stronger than I now think it will be, then oil ends the year above $100.

  115. 115
    VTZ Says:

    You folks are wusses when it comes to the cold.

  116. 116
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z –#114 damn, that’s good. Agreed. That’s why we pay you the Big Bucks here. Thanks!

  117. 117
    zman Says:

    V – How thick are the house walls up there. What’s your R factor on insulation? It goes to 10 here tomorrow and my heat will run round the clock to keep up with that.

  118. 118
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    VTZ — no argument from ME. I have NO IDEA how you live up there, at the North Pole.

  119. 119
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Al Gore has a lotta square footage to keep warm. Wonder what he uses to heat the house… his speeches, maybe? 😉

  120. 120
    zman Says:

    BOP – what are you showing for consensus for payrolls tomorrow, last # I had was +10K.

  121. 121
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Bloomberg consensus now shows -35k expected for tomorrow. Have not heard any whisper numbers yet.

  122. 122
    VTZ Says:

    I’m not sure of the R factor but I am sure that it’s as high as you can get… Some people double insulate their houses. The really rich and wasteful ones have heated driveways so they don’t have to shovel.

    My furnace cuts in and out but when it’s -30C it’s going probably 70-80% of the day.

    Do you guys use NG furnaces or other?

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    Thanks much BOP, market watch showing + 15K now.

  124. 124
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Speaking of “North Pole…” I had no idea there really is a town of “North Pole, Alaska.” On Christmas Eve, I sat on a plane, next to an army guy who was flying back to be home with his family in North Pole, AK. The guy is a “cold weather survival specialist.” Basically, he trains pilots who might land in frozen wastelands how to survive for 3 days. I got a few tips… but, my basic understanding was “don’t make an unscheduled landing in the Frozen Tundra in the middle of winter.” I got frostbite just listening to the guy’s stories.

    Interesting stuff. VTZ, don’t know how you do it, man.

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    In the south most things are piped gas. The more rural you get the better your chance of being on propane but that’s a low number. Out west you run into more electric which is not very efficient. Midwest and S. Atlantic you see mostly natural gas as well, Northeast is a mix of heating oil and natural gas although the gassification up there over the years has put a dent in HO volumes, lot less to mess with when you don’t have to have a guy with a truck come around and fill your tank.

  126. 126
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    +15k? Uh-oh… could be setting up Mr. Market for a disappointment.

  127. 127
    zman Says:

    HAL holding in very nicely today amidst all the red. Will punt the $33s and add some Feb exposure sometime tomorrow.

  128. 128
    zman Says:

    BOP was $10K before the ADP report. People seem to think you can add 80K or so to that to get to Payrolls. Probably not that simple.

  129. 129
    VTZ Says:

    Well it’s not North Pole yet where I’m at. If you think my cold is miserable then you’ll understand why costs and failures are common and more frequent in the oil sands in Fort McMurray which is, of course, much further North still.

  130. 130
    zman Says:

    I’ll bet the protesters don’t come up there this time of year.

  131. 131
    VTZ Says:

    It was kind of windy when Greenpeace was hanging from the stack and I would’ve been ok with leaving them up there a little longer.

  132. 132
    zman Says:

    Texw / Wyoming – any thoughts on quality of work from Boots?

  133. 133
    ram Says:

    Cold here too!

  134. 134
    jiveyjr Says:

    WRES presentation info. looks very good to me

  135. 135
    zman Says:

    CLNE just won’t pull back.

  136. 136
    zman Says:

    Jivey – unfortunately they aren’t broadcasting that one.

  137. 137
    zman Says:

    IOC does not yet have a new presentation up, may not and they too are not broadcasting.

  138. 138
    jiveyjr Says:

    re: 136…for me that may be good…I misunderestimated how good this one might be and am still buying

  139. 139
    zman Says:

    J – Hear ya on that.

  140. 140
    zman Says:

    Hears that Geithner story:

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20100107/pl_bloomberg/axivw4igkv38

  141. 141
    bill Says:

    he regulator decided that Goldman Sachs and more than a dozen banks would be fully repaid for $62.1 billion of the swaps, prompting lawmakers to call the AIG rescue a “backdoor bailout” of financial firms.

    something stinks

  142. 142
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Geithner angling for a partnership at GS upon “retirement” from his day job, it sounds like.

  143. 143
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Strategy move… just swapped 1/2 my KOG position into the same number of EXXI shares. EXXI presents tomorrow morning…

  144. 144
    zman Says:

    BOP – that sounds kind of smart. Just watching MMR tick up in here….hmmm.

  145. 145
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    LOLOLOL

    “kinda smart”… i’ll take it!

  146. 146
    JD Says:

    re: 37 POT: mthly, wkly and daily charts all point higher. The daily RSI is near 80 which gets my attention, but the MACD has just turned upward from a relatively low level. POT looks as if it will go higher from here. Sorry for delay in responding.

  147. 147
    zman Says:

    CNBC reporting Reuters survey is now looking for unchanged on the payrolls number.

  148. 148
    zman Says:

    MMR – ticking up in anticipation of something, maybe comments from EXXI tomorrow. Note also how you see everyone else in E&P land selling insider shares as is customary at year end but not at MMR.

  149. 149
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: I have seen a fair amount of insider sales at year end. Is this SOP in your mind? No cause for concern.

  150. 150
    zman Says:

    Tom – it is when the stocks are near 52 week highs. For many, these are end of year option grants they are exercising and selling either all or a portion of, like a bonus so that’s pretty standard. As long as people aren’t cashing big percentages of their holdings I tend not to worry about it. When I see an absence of selling at this time of year I start to take notice however.

  151. 151
    zman Says:

    MCF cruising higher.

  152. 152
    VTZ Says:

    From what I’ve read and heard, to me it sounds like unless the jobs number is horrid the market will catch a bid. Am I reading this like others?

  153. 153
    andy Says:

    kinda smart – just about to ask u if u liked EXXI or KOG better. i think u just answered for me

  154. 154
    zman Says:

    V – Not sure. Wondering about it’s impact on the dollar myself. Talk about something that has caught a bid.

  155. 155
    VTZ Says:

    Nobody is willing to pay 78.00 it’s been stuck below for most of the day. As I mentioned before I was looking to mid-78s for a potential reversal and it has approached it a few times and I would not be surprised to see the dollar rally slightly again tomorrow. This rally today has to be expectation based.

  156. 156
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    market not impressed with WRES presentation; but I need to reveiw closely. I’m not sure today’s actin means anything (one man;s opinion)

  157. 157
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    as a reminder Z’s back of envelope calculation for HGT are worth a reread; keep this in mind as you look at performance the last 3 months or so.

  158. 158
    VTZ Says:

    Keep in mind as well Z the huge speculative net long position that will either force the market up higher or need to exit once there is some market moving news.

  159. 159
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Did anyone else get 145K shares like Aubrey got at year end? And I thought shortstop for the NY Yankees paid well. Lol

  160. 160
    zman Says:

    Hey Paul, now I have to go back and read what I wrote.

    V – Yeah, I think that is what we saw on Monday.

  161. 161
    zman Says:

    Tom – Take a look at SWN inside trades.

  162. 162
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Saw those also. 9MM in one week

  163. 163
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    i like HGT; debt free; un-hedged; and XTO has always appreared to run it well; it was one of the few things I had the guts to buy back in early March as it couldn’t go away!

  164. 164
    bill Says:

    143 and 147

    ty for reminding me—added some more at 2.64

    and bot some pxp and mmr for good measure

  165. 165
    zman Says:

    Paul – at least I appear to have gotten the dividend right, looks like its just about to start walking back up.

  166. 166
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    bill — i’m getting closer to joining you in PXP… closer, but not quite there yet.

    andy — KOG vs EXXI from 10,000 feet. I think both stocks are worth close to $4 on just their low-risk production program alone (and $80 oil)…. but, you also get upside from EXXI’s participation in several of MMR’s deep wells AND a H-U-G-E jump in production coming on line now for EXXI.

    EXXI is hedged, KOG is not. But EXXI has a lot of debt and KOG is debt-free. In a perfect world in a rally, you would want lots of debt and no hedges… it’s always a balancing act.

  167. 167
    bill Says:

    166 lol

    Burn me twice and i love you

    PXP has a piece of the apc discovery
    Oil is rocking and rolling
    If you like ng, the haynesville exposure
    q4 ng was hedge at 10
    and i think some oily reserves come back on that were lost last year due to prices

    the more i think about it, the better i feel about exxi hitting 5 this year

  168. 168
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    and i still own 1/2 my KOG position… so, still like the risk/reward there too.

    bill — the more i think about EXXI, the more I like the potential there. Key thing for me will be hearing anything they have to say about what they plan to do with all the new-found cash flow. Need to get a handle on their risk profile, going forward. What i WANT to hear is that Schiller will use his contacts and expertise to amass lots of low-cost, shallow-shelf, oily production with development upside. That is what I hope he says tomorrow… but, may have to wait for Dec quarterly update to hear that level of detail.

  169. 169
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI — and I still believe that issuing that perpetual convertible preferred was just about the stupidest bone-headed balance sheet move I have seen in a long time. That said, i sure wish i’d have backed up the truck on that security!

  170. 170
    zman Says:

    CLR presentation in 15 minutes.

  171. 171
    baylor3217 Says:

    Z – 161 – unless I’m reading it wrong, seems like mostly selling

  172. 172
    zman Says:

    CXO on the tape with an operations update, they are upping 2010 guidance, looks like Permian is behind it, comments tomorrow. Another name that may be rockin in the Bakken this year.

  173. 173
    zman Says:

    Baylor – It’s most options that are exercised and immediately sold.

  174. 174
    RMD Says:

    CK Cooper put out a sell on NOG today based on valuation:
    reserves 2.2mm (.7 at 12/08 plus 3 net wells @.5mm) X $25/bbl at $70 oil (used $17/bbl at $50) = $1.29/share.
    Working capital adds $1.00 on 44mm shares.
    70,000 acres at $6,445/ac. adds $451mm or $10.25/share.
    $200/ac. for remaining 32,000 accres adds $6mm – $.13/share
    Value = $12.68
    Since this is the kind of logic which got me into AEZ I sold some today, and am thinking of shorting BEXP, but I have to sort through BEXP’s numbers. Don’t all yell at once, just thinking contrarily.

  175. 175
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    RMD — i just luuuv it, when you go all contrarian on us.

    Nothing goes up in a straight line. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

  176. 176
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I take that back… nothing goes up in a straight line — except the stuff I don’t own! LOL.

    Great call on AEZ, RMD… just super.

  177. 177
    zman Says:

    RMD – Told you not to hit the trees while skiing.

    Listened to CLR – IPs improving, rigs ramping. 4Q09 average 7 day IP will be 980 boepd, vs 700ish year ago.

    He did not mention rising costs of drilling like KOG indicated. May just be a difference in timelines with KOG thinking of current pricing coming off the bottom and CLR thinking of just how far prices have fallen.

    10 to 12% production growth this year, looks like 2011 will be stronger.

    Targeting double of production and reserves in five years from current inventory.

    The name still looks pricey to me.

  178. 178
    RMD Says:

    BEXP:
    Wild guess numbers using 270,000 undeveloped acres gets me to $4,400/acres valuation. Very back of envelope though.

  179. 179
    zman Says:

    RMD – How are you getting to that number?

  180. 180
    ram Says:

    Zman – Re 174, is the NOG assumption correct above?

  181. 181
    zman Says:

    Ram – That’s not the way I would look at that name.

    No debt, lots of acreage and production (unlike some of the other little Bakken wannabes). I can work up an NAV but NAVs really aren’t worth that much after you have cash flow to talk about until the day someone else buys them. So how about using CFPS of $3.76 for 2010, on a $13.17 = 3.5x which is damn cheap onshore, U.S., oily, and in a hot play.

  182. 182
    ram Says:

    Thank you Zman. I’ll sleep better tonight.

  183. 183
    zman Says:

    re 182. Well I guess I’ve done my job then.

  184. 184
    zman Says:

    Temps moderating next week. Listened to Bastardi, sounds like he does not expect it to last long. He did say that he expects the vocal global warming forces to start pointing to this winter’s harshness soon saying that it was caused by global warming. Good slide show comparing this winter so far with 1970, cold and warm in the same areas, pretty similar patterns. Bastardi then talking about the whole Ice Age scare that the same vocal types were talking about in 1970. What a cynic that guy is, lol.

  185. 185
    bill Says:

    the global warming guys dont call it global warming anymore, it global climate change

    Then, any climate changes will get their dander up. Why restrict yourself to just warm weather

    does bastardi only come with the premium service

  186. 186
    zman Says:

    Bill – I think so re Bastardi.

  187. 187
    milepost_43 Says:

    just ran today’s comments..#143….
    what time is EXXI presentation?…..
    10s just keep on giving…$950…..thanks

  188. 188
    zman Says:

    EXXI = 11:25 EST

    http://www.wsw.com/webscast/pritch2

  189. 189
    TEXWS6 Says:

    Boots and Coots?

  190. 190
    zman Says:

    yeah, for snubbing ops in the shale?

  191. 191
    TEXWS6 Says:

    what do you want to know about them? There are several snubbers out there, but Boots is the people we prefer in HPHT wells. Barnett and lower pressure plays will use smaller snubbing companies. FYI, snubbing is not all B&C offers.

  192. 192
    zman Says:

    Right, right, just listening to their call today, have been away for the story for a few years, they mentioned they were ramping business in the shale, natural progression from blow out control days, working with pressure control anyway, thanks for confirming they are the ones you’d use, that’s exactly what I wanted to know.

  193. 193
    PackMan Says:

    176 – exactly how I feel !

    EXXI up 50% from 2 weeks ago. wow.

  194. 194
    PackMan Says:

    someone explain to me why oil is $80 +.

    makes no sense except for the free money carry trade.

    also explain how 80 or 100 dollar oil is or will be good for the economy and the consumer.

    I do not get it.

  195. 195
    zman Says:

    Well crap. Texas just self destructing in Pasadena.

  196. 196
    zman Says:

    Pack, you really want to know?

  197. 197
    PackMan Says:

    honestly; all this chatter about oil going to 100 seems so 2007.

    It really makes no sense and will pound the economy and the consumer.

    Its good for oil co profitability; but nobody is considering its impact on company profitablility for users. Trannies for ex.

    just venting.

  198. 198
    zman Says:

    As soon as oil goes back down through $80, many of the same voices who are saying $100 now will say $70 or even $60.

    Still, I think its a very good question and I will put my thoughts on the matter in tomorrow’s post.

  199. 199
    PackMan Says:

    yes, i know LOL !

    but even you are talking 100 !

    we cant have recovery and 100 oil is my main point; or even 80 oil and $3 gas and 10% unemployment.

  200. 200
    RMD Says:

    BEXP 174 revised #s as prior guess used 77mm shares:
    99mm shs, Ev 1.75B – est pretax reserves of 325mm = 1.42B
    $1.42b/270m acres=$5,259/ac.
    This values whole 270m acres as “prime” while ND. acres are about 140m, and the rest you can value as you want. $325mm proven reserves may need adjustment also, but I’m doing this quickly during a timeout and having not studied the BEXP slides at great length.

  201. 201
    zman Says:

    Now be fair, what I said was, if the economic recovery is stronger than I think it will be, crude will be over $100 at year end. That’s 12 months away and I didn’t say how far over the century mark it would be. If the U.S. recovery is stronger than it now looks to me to be (say 1 or 2% GDP growth in 2010 goes instead to say 3%), then China can stay puffed up longer to feed a larger inventory restocking.

    As to high oil prices crushing the economy back, higher taxes are a far worse thing for the economy. In the last run everyone was sure $100 crude would kill the economy. Instead it was something 99% of the land had never heard of. And the delta between $2.50 and $3.00 gasoline for the average driver is probably an extra $15 per month.

  202. 202
    zman Says:

    RMD – You using YE08 reserve figures?

  203. 203
    zman Says:

    Way to go Texas backup QB.

  204. 204
    PackMan Says:

    Wasn’t meant as a personal criticsm and didn’t mean to be “unfair” … reading thru comments very quickly tonite and watching ball game. You still da man !

  205. 205
    zman Says:

    Pack – didn’t take it that way at all. The internet is a very flat medium and I often leave off the LOLs. LOL. Besides, I have a thick skin. And I welcome the question because I think oil is a little rich at present. More things have to go right than are currently going right in the U.S. economy to get that extra GDP bump. So keep it up. Plus I’m not all that happy about the game.

  206. 206
    RMD Says:

    ’08 reserve figures adjusted, but I forget just how…it made sense at the time.

  207. 207
    bill Says:

    z- Freeze offs

    Some are saying this will cut production. Im not familar with the term

  208. 208
    zman Says:

    Bill – You see it in the Rockies more than anywhere else, basically, it gets too cold and water produced in the gas wells freezes either in the wellheads or gathering system, “freezing off” production. Could be wider spread this week as it has been colder than normal in the South. Short lived, weather warms up and you get that production back, might be some minor repairs involved but this is just a temporary dip.

  209. 209
    traines from Ukraine Says:

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    […]Zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… » Blog Archive » Thursday – Natural Gas Preview & Oil Review[…]…

  210. 210
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  211. 211
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    Zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… » Blog Archive » Thursday – Natural Gas Preview & Oil Review

  212. 212
    cars for sale marbella Says:

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