Monday Morning – Welcome To The Last Week of 2009

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Market Sentiment Watch: Market players seem to be in "Jenga" (or Tumble Towers if you prefer the generic version of the game) mode. Nervously eying something that seems like it will topple at any second but not quite willing to do anything just yet that will let it. I think sometime in the first quarter of 2010, we're going to see a pullback of the 10% variety in the broad markets but not a crash of the tower that many are once again calling for.

Until I see that 10% sort of pullback, it's doubtful I will venture beyond the 50% cash mark for the $10 KP  (it's at 70% cash now).  Things just feel stretched higher here and given that the stretching has come on light, window dressing-like, volume I don't feel the need to chase things (at least not with big pieces of the portfolio), despite the fact that some of my favorite names are moving higher without me (especially thinking of WLL there although I do own the common). 

Still, that gives me 20% of my portfolio value to play with and I'm likely to target names for from last Wednesday's post on what I'll be doing into year end should we see any kind of near term unexpected dip or just early sideways trading. Probably:

  • (NFX) February calls to catch their 2010 plans pre release in early to mid January
  • (SWN) calls as it's a go to name for year buying and yes I sold it on Thursday after the gas numbers and before it sold back to even on the day and yes I can buy it back cheaper this morning and am likely to,
  • a little more (BEXP) which I like for news either this week or next as per the Catalyst List.

Housekeeping Watch:

  • Thursday I plan to review my 2009 thoughts and targets and to outline my thoughts on key themes for 2010. 
  • I plan on closing the $10 KP II in the next couple of weeks, maybe with January expiry, and starting the $10 KP III with a fresh $10,000. The $10KP III will have the ability to write options to reduce cost basis. 

The Week Ahead:

  • Monday 12/28:  Mastercard Spending Survey
  • Tuesday 12/29: Case-Shiller home prices, Consumer confidence (forecast 54 vs last reading of 49.5),
  • Wednesday 12/30:  EIA Oil Inventory Report, Chicago PMI,
  • Thursday 12/31: EIA Natural Storage Report, Natural Gas Supply Report (data for October), Jobless claims (forecast 473K vs last week's 452K),
  • Friday 1/1/10: HAPPY NEW YEAR'S - Market Closed

In Today's Post:

  • Holdings Watch
  • Commodity  Watch
  • Stuff We Care About Today
  • Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

  • $10KP II:
    • $26,200
    • 70% Cash.
    • The Holdings tab has been updated.
  • Last Week's Trades:
    • EOG – Added (3) EOG January $95 Calls (EOGAS) for $2.80 with the stock at about $94.30.

    • ANR – Added (5) ANR January 45 calls (ANRAI)for $1.50 with stock at $44.

    • IOC – Added (2) January $70 calls for $5.90 with the stock at $71.20.

    • NOG – Added (5) February $10 calls (NOGBB) for $2.05 (added on the mid with the stock at $11.42).

    • NOG – Added another (20) NOG $12.50 January calls (NOGAV) on a little weakness in the name (stock at $11.05).

    • BEXP – Sold the January $10 Calls for $4, up 240% with the stock at $14. Will reposition in short order as I want to maintain leverage for further news here. I continue to hold the common.

    • BEXP – Added (10) January $15 calls (QBJAC) for $0.45 (0n the mid and easily) with the stock at $14.05.

    • SWN – Added (5) January $50 calls (TKQAJ) for 1.65 with the stock at $49.85. Plan to add more today or tomorrow. Also plan to punt my lower strike $48s soon, maybe before the gas numbers tomorrow.

    • EOG – Added (5) EOG January $100 Calls (EOGAT) for $2.20 with the stock at 98.40. Will likely punt my $95 calls soon.

    • SWN – Sold the $48 January calls for $3.30, up 111% with the stock at $50.50. I continue to hold the common and the $50 strikes I took earlier.

    • EOG – Sold the January $95 Calls for 5.80, up 104%. I continue to hold the $100 strikes I bought earlier today.

    • SWN – sold the 5 January $50 calls for $2.30, up 37% on a less than bullish 166 Bcf withdrawal. I’ll buy them back lower next week.

    • EOG – sold the (5) $100 January calls for $3.00, up 34%. Just taking a little cash off the table in this light market.

Commodity  Watch:

Crude oil gained 5% last week to close at $78.05. The 12 month crude strip is now trading at $79.49.  The many $80 by year end calls are turning out to be pretty close to the mark.  This morning crude is trading up slightly, as the dollar eases slightly, the forecast turns colder and equity futures eye a quiet, slightly positive week ahead.

  • Iran Watch: The death toll stands at 15 after political protesters protesting last June's elections were fired upon by police this past weekend. Look for renewed global outcry to push Iran towards some kind of reform which will no doubt push Iran instead towards more threats (missile launches, border incursions into Iraq, etc) and ultimately have no effect on the rogue leadership there.  I note that Doug Kass thinks one of the 2010 surprises will be Israel attacking Iran. I don't call it a surprise but I don't disagree, the clock is ticking there with no progress made on the political and apparently less support of Israel than in past administrations this is going to happen. 
  • From Russia With Not So Much Love Watch: Russia is vowing to cut off not only natural gas but also oil this winter to Ukraine, a move it says it is forced to make if the country can't pay its heating tab. Russia has given Ukraine until New Year's Day to come up with acceptable payment terms. If they stop the flow of gas and oil this means much of Europe will be scrambling to heat itself, raising prices across the continent.


Natural gas eased 1.7% last week to close at $5.69 with all of the drop coming Thursday after the EIA gas storage number came in low to expectations. The 12 month strip is still just above $6. Note that we do get the latest available supply data on Thursday and I plan to react swiftly to that news again. This morning gas is trading up 15 to 20 cents on the colder forecast outlined below. Accuweather calls for a series of snow storms for the U.S. with cold air penetrating deep into the nation's midsection well into January.

  • Weather Watch: Getting colder again. Despite last week's midsection blizzard temperatures were in aggregate warmer than normal (but cooler than forecast). This week's forecast shows a return to normal weather.

    • Week Before Last: 202 HDDs which in line with normal for this year and yielded last Thursday's 166 Bcf withdrawal report.
    • Last Week: 207 HDDs vs a prior forecast of 202; vs 235 last year and 212 normal.
    • This Week's Forecast: 222 HDDs which would be the second coldest week of the season to date and in line with normal readings for the week. See AccuWeather's graph of that here. Notably, the year ago week was warm so we should get an easy comp in next week's report, allowing us to further pound down the storage surplus.


Stuff We Care About Today

CLNE To Add CNG Refuel Station At Austin Airport

  • Normally I wouldn't call attention to this but it's a slow news week and this is something I think we see a lot more of in 2010, airport fueling stations becoming the norm in the gas producing regions and not just in Ok City and on the west coast.
  • Goal is to serve airport and other natural gas powered fleets but also private vehicles.
  • Compressed natural gas has suffered from the chicken and egg syndrome in the private vehicle market but that will change as more fueling stations become available.
  • Fleet sales will continue to dominate both revenues and efforts at CLNE but I suspect the company will in 2010 or 2011 make a move (in coordination with a Major and a car company) to grow private vehicle revenue.


Catalyst List - Adding a few more items, will have updated for list tomorrow's post.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • (RAME) upped to Buy at Wunderlich with a $4 target.

Interesting Reading Watch:

82 Responses to “Monday Morning – Welcome To The Last Week of 2009”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    NG up 26 on the front month to 5.90, up 15 to 20 cents for the next 11 months of contracts as well. I’ll look at buying back the SWN’s sold last week early in the morning.

  2. 2
    reefguy Says:

    z- cute interns!

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Thanks Reef!

  4. 4
    kyleandy Says:

    z – just showed my wife the interns saying they were so cute we should have more – luckily she showed some saneness and quickly ended that thought!!

  5. 5
    zman Says:


    SWN – Added (10) January $50 Calls (TKQAJ) for $2.15 with the stock up about 20 cents on the day. These are the ones I sold a bit higher on Thursday. Natural gas is surging this morning on a colder forecast and colder weather last week and this is one of the names I think people will gravitate to for year end window dressing as well as a gas play this week.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Kyleandy – I get the same reaction from my wife when I point to them and proclaim “look what I have created!” using my Tom Hanks impression from Castaway when first gets the fire going.

  7. 7
    ram Says:

    SWN 55’s too “wild”?

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Ram – was mulling that, decided to play it a little safe, may take them if it runs to $50 and holds that level.


    NFX – Added (3) February $50 calls (NFXBJ) for $3.50 with the stock at 50.70. About one-third of what I want to hold when they release their 2010 guidance probably in mid January.

  9. 9
    zman Says:


    BEXP – Doubled my position in the BEXP $15 January calls (QBJAC) for $0.65. Should see more well news there any day now.

  10. 10
    elijahwc Says:

    RAME: Cliff Notes Version

    RAM Energy Resources, Inc. Wunderlich Securities, Inc. (Richard F. Rossi) Upgraded from Hold to Buy – Price Target: $4
    We are raising our rating on Ram Energy (RAME) to Buy with a $4 price target based on our risked NAV. Ram has, in our view, successfully navigated through a difficult year. While debt levels remain high, we believe those levels are very manageable given the company’s cash flow and drilling propects. The company is well hedged going into 2010 and is concentrating on existing core areas in Texas and Oklahoma where it is developing and exploiting existing oil and natural gas properties. With a deep inventory of drilling locations, we look for growing production and reserves over the next several years. Key Points Deep and Oily Drilling Inventory. Ram has around 450 identified drilling locations including around 200 PUDs. About half the PUDs and half the P2 and P3 locations are in the oil-producing Electra/Burnburnett acreage. That acreage, along with the Allen/Fitts fields, which has 63 PUD locations, essentially account for about half the company’s production and 38% of 2008 reported reserves. 2010 Budget Should Drive Production Growth. Ram’s initial 2010 budget of around $50 million, versus the mid-$30 million in 2009, should drive production growth of 4%-6% versus 2009. Production should continue to favor oil and liquids weighting (60%). About $38 million is earmarked for the company’s mature and developing fields. Another $6 million will be used for exploratory drilling. The remaining $6 million will be used on geological and geophysical expenses, and land and seismic costs. Levered Balance Sheet Manageable. At the end of 3Q09, Ram had $250 million of debt including $110.2 million in term debt due in 2012 and $140 million drawn down on its $175 million borrowing base, which was reaffirmed on September 28. As of 3Q09 Ram had negative equity of about $3.5 million. While clearly an issue, we believe the debt is manageable given the company’s cash flow. We estimate that EBITDA in 2010 will be over 3x debt service. Solid Hedge Position Going into 2010. Ram will enter 2010 with a solid hedge position that covers about 60% of our estimated 2010 production. Those hedges include 2,600 Bbls/d at prices ranging from a collared floor of $53.44 to ceilings of $80.57 and bare floors of $64.84. On the gas side, hedges include 9,990 Mmbtu at collared floors of $5.00 and ceilings of $9.23 to bare floors of $4.36. Details of the company’s hedge position appears on page two of this note. Valuation Framework. Our $4 target price is based on an NAV analysis. Our NAV only gives credit to the company’s proved reserves of 36.2 MBOE. We are using $1.25 an mmcf value for gas, a $25.00 value for oil and a $12.00 value for NGLs. We would note that Ram shares are also very attractive on a price to cash flow basis, in our view. Ram is selling at around 2.7x 2010 cash flow while the samll cap E&P average is 6.2x.

    Contact: Kyle Norton – 410-369-2608

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Thanks Eli


    SWN – Added (30) of the January $55 calls (TKQAK) with the stock just over $50.

  12. 12
    edstile Says:

    What did you pay for the SWN $55 calls?

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    30 cents

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Cash back to 55%

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Group pretty mixed, feels like a bit of profit taking, volume light as expected. Don’t see anything on the SWN to account for the extra weakness. Dahlman analyst did pick it as his #1 E&P stock on CNBC this morning.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Mulling adding a little more of the SWN $55s but will likely wait for tomorrow.

  17. 17
    baylor3217 Says:

    SLB continues to rip and HAL stays mired in the mud for relatively speaking.

    I’ve been watching this for years and maybe it’s just a lingering Dick Chaney effect but it always seems to lag percentage wise.

  18. 18
    baylor3217 Says:

    The Bid / Ask is a mile wide (as always) on NOG. It’s sagging with the half of the E&P that is sagging. Might be an opportunity coming up there.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    Re 17 – They rotate leadership.

    Month to date up 4.1%
    YTD up 76%

    MTD up 1.8%
    YTD up 67%

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    Natural gas holding up 26 cents at $5.91; group should take notice after this bout of profit taking exhausts itself.

    I noted a forecast of cold “well into” January from Accuweather this morning. Will anyone with access to Bastardi send me what he’s thinking about re January, thanks.

  21. 21
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    These E&P stocks have rallyed so far and so fast, they need a break. They are very overbought.

  22. 22
    baylor3217 Says:

    Re 19 – Fair enough although HAL was pummeled a bit worse than SLB so it basically equals out.

    SLB tends to get the premium since it seems to be a better run company and more diversified.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    BSJ – No argument here. I just don’t think the weakness will last very long or be very steep. Multiples are not excessive for my names at least and the shares are still reflecting some pretty bearish looks at gas prices next year.

  24. 24
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE: 20: Bastardi thinks that the first half of Jan could be the coldest population weighted cold weather in the last 25 years.

  25. 25
    baylor3217 Says:

    Options expire relatively early in January so may get some good opportunities to do “option repair” between now and then.

  26. 26
    wcoaster Says:

    Eli – thanks for # 10. I’ve been holding RAME for a few months, and a bit worried about their capital spending levels for 2010, but that is a cogent analyst update, and will keep me in it for now.

  27. 27
    baylor3217 Says:

    NOG down 4% today on some profit taking. Z, any thoughts on adding to your positions here?

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Re 24. Thanks much.

    Baylor – I may add to the Febs.

  29. 29
    reefguy Says:

    NOG- thoughts about the common?

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Got the Job B weather update. Wow cold for January, his forecast just got colder. Sees record setting cold. Helps to explain the support of gas near $6.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    Reef – Mulling that as well for a twelve month + hold. If I played shoulda, woulda, coulda, then I then would have added back in the mid $9 when I took my original position in the calls. I think they will have a lot of news in the next two months making the stock a safer bet than the options unless oil prices fall out of bed. They are participating in the largest completion (in terms of frac stages) to date in the Bakken but should be in a bunch of stronger wells drilled by both Slawson and EOG. Don’t know if we get news before the 4Q release. If this were 2008 I’d expect it but they seem to have moved to a more quarterly leaning update.

  32. 32
    kiaora Says:

    …Please post link for JB weather

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    Kiaora – Don’t have a link, it’s private, what I got was pasted. Disjointed stuff but think record cold.

  34. 34
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    I live in Northeast Ohio. I checked the next 15 day Accuweather forecast for my neck of the woods. It is going to be cold, but heck its winter — no sign of record cold JB is talking about.

    Question — what happens to nat gas if those dire cold forecasts do not come about?

  35. 35
    elijahwc Says:

    Z – Any “brief” thoughts/observations about HES as either an emerging Bakken player or as a takeout candidate?

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    BSJ – He’s talking about population weighted, gas heated degree days breaking records. That’s a broader area and weighted for where people live and use gas. So it’s a big deal. If it does not happen which is pretty unlikely for at least the next 10 days of that given they can see the cold air mass patterns building then gas should retreat into the $5 to $5.50 area.

    Eli – No, I don’t really think much about HES so I wouldn’t be of much help there. I see them scattered about the Bakken with some decent but not spectacular wells.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    Market looks bored.

  38. 38
    Alhambra Says:

    Japan Refining: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aER_7GJJxy2g

    Australia Refining: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=ahpmRn7.Yc8U

    Tanker News: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a14LJ33Y.yng

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    Thanks A, will take a look.

  40. 40
    Dman Says:

    Wheat up nearly 5%

    A tiny bit of dollar weakness & most commodities are up many multiples of that dollar decline.

    Which reminds me that the dollar index is a very poor measure of the actual buying power of the dollar.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Kyleandy please check your email.

  42. 42
    nifkin Says:

    Chavez back at it: Colombia is preparing to attack Venezuela in an operation that will be made to look like the objective is a base of Colombian guerrillas, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said today in a speech to troops that was shown on state television. Colombia is building a “fake” base to justify the assault, Chavez said.

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    Nifkin – I guess I know where there is a lithium shortage, lol. Chavez is Muey Loco.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    ROSE approaching $20. Everything else doing a lot of nothing. Single most boring day of the year so far? You guessed it.

  45. 45
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: What do you consider to be fair value for your stocks on a CFPS basis? Having been more of a PE guy in the past, I’m not sure of how you would look at things. I also assume that if we take WLL and it is expected to have a 2010 CFPS of $15.32 @ $75/sh it is 4.89 times. If fair is 7 – 8 then we can all do the math as to what kind of upside you are thinking about. Of course we are going to assume a normal market which we have not seen in forever. After that metric then I would assume other variables come into play such as production growth and strength of balance sheet. If you have time maybe list the most important criteria for those that trade normally at a higher CFPS.

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    Tom – It depends on what they do and firm size.

    Gulf of Mexico shelf, with its short reserve/production ratio is going to get you a lower multiple, especially if your cash costs per Mcfe are high. So 2x next year’s CFPS is pretty typical now.

    Onshore, non conventional gas is going to range from 4 to 12x CFPS. Higher multiples go to players focused in shale plays in better gas markets, with lower costs and with the longest lives and running room in terms of acreage. Higher financial leverage is going to get you a lower multiple. Lower hedge %s will probably get you a more erratic stock so a broader range of multiple.

    For the oily names, the range is going to be 4 to 12x also with the bigger names clustered closer to the 4 to 6x end and the names like BEXP which is smaller but growing fast and drilling big wells up at 10x+.

  47. 47
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: There is a Pritchard Capital Energy Conference Jan 6-8 in SF. I know NE will be there. I do not have the list of presenters. Do you have an interest in this conference?

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Critical values for a higher multiple would be:

    Low LOE/MCfe,

    low overall cash costs,

    high R&P,

    acreage and homogeneous looking results across said acreage so the play has repeatability to it.

    A good local gas market. Like Marcellus gas trading at a premium to Henry Hub vs Haynesville which trades (generally) in line, vs Woodford at a discount to Hub

    Strong production growth while maintaining all of the above

    Strong production growth while living close to or within cash flow.

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    Tom – Yes, had seen a couple of press releases from E&Ps that will be there.

  50. 50
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: The 4X – 12X CFPS is wide enough to drive a truck though. My rational for the question is more because I am more of a covered call or naked put guy than you are. I try to sell calls at technical resistent levels or fair valuation levels so I can try to be less emotional. If you ever what to be more specific please share. Thanks.

  51. 51
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: 46 48 great help.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Tom – Like I said it depends on what they do. The Gomex shelf guys are all clustered around 2x. They probably go to 3x in a better commodity environment.

    The big caps are going to be 4 to 6x

    and then the gassy growth crowd is going to be 8 to 12x.

  53. 53
    bill Says:

    this is good for pxp and vq if the moonbats in calif comes to their collective senses


    The latest proposal from Schwarzenegger comes as part of the lame duck governor’s final budget proposal in which he is proposing deep cuts in mass transportation and the need for $8 billion in federal aid for the state to avoid severely cutting social welfare programs.

    One of the few potential new revenue sources in the governor’s plans is tied to the proposal to resume offshore oil/gas drilling from an existing but idle platform off the north Santa Barbara County coast. The plan, even after the Lands Commission action, resurfaced in the legislative debate at the end of the regular session in September and it was again voted down.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Bill – hear ya. Can’t believe they don’t see the potential to help save themselves. California cutting back on transportation funding at the same that China launches the fastest high speed train in the world, somewhat ironic that China knows how to pay for things and goes out and does so where as others just want something but don’t care about actually paying for it.

    Market action: tepid. This looks a lot like one of those days where the early direction of a stock determines what it looks like all day.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    NG up 31 cents, or 5.5%, can’t tell it by the stocks today.

    Oil up a little better than 1%, hugging $79 level.

    SP looking weakish here.

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    Market coming off a bit on Al Qaida claiming responsibility for the failed attack in Detroit, saying it was done in response to U.S. cruise missile attacks in Yemen a week or so ago.

  57. 57
    ram Says:

    They sent a young, naïve, silver spoon fed, goody-to-shoes engineer geek?

  58. 58
    Jay Says:

    Thar she blows ….. or not

    Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) — A 187-ton wind turbine in upstate New York fell to the ground yesterday at about 3:30 a.m. for no apparent reason, according to owner Enel SpA.


  59. 59
    zman Says:

    Re 57 – yep, he didn’t get into the schools he wanted so apparently that sent him over. Sheesh.

    Jay – “screws fall out all the time, the world is an imperfect place”

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    NG hit 6.000

  61. 61
    ram Says:

    Maybe ng stocks can move upward now – or not.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    My guess is not today but into year end as long as the market likes the eco numbers tomorrow.

  63. 63
    TEXWS6 Says:

    re #58:

    We better stop those turbines from going up, they could fall over and hurt someone!

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    Tex – Thanks for the strong answers to the dual lateral questions on Thursday.

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    Market just paralyzed with a lack of buyers on the desks. Had to thump my main market watch to make sure it was on.

  66. 66
    TEXWS6 Says:

    No prob, just ask away on the technical stuff, I’m the one learning from you guys!

  67. 67
    bill Says:

    58 too much wind?? lol

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    Tex – Will do. I was out during much of the later part of that discussion. I wonder at the efficiency of the dual and tri laterals to date in both oil and gas regimes. I point to WLL’s handful of tri and dual lats in the Bakken which were not its biggest wells, with some of its mid length laterals outdoing the tri’s at least on IP. Also, NFX had a nothing to brag about dual in the Woodford, think it was dry gas. Cost hard to compare because they loaded it with science but still, not sure they’d go balls to the wall with those in lieu of doing 2 640 units stacked for extended lateral, lease and frac limits willing.

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    Bill – Wonder if it was the cold that got to it.

  70. 70
    reefguy Says:

    Buyers- somebody buying anything at $12

  71. 71
    reefguy Says:

    70- NOG

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    Hear ya on that Reef, been watching it hug the level for hours.

    ROSE at 20.10, must be some last minute mutual fund shopping there.

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    Here’s to more news the rest of this week.

  74. 74
    TEXWS6 Says:

    One of my buddies completes ALL of NFX’s wells in the Woodford. He was told that they would be dropping half of their rigs, but completing more stages per well. This makes me think that they are sold on the extended lateral idea!

  75. 75
    nifkin Says:

    Spectra has signed binding precedent agreements with Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK), Consolidated Edison (ED) and Statoil Natural Gas (STO) for an expansion of its existing Texas Eastern Transmission and Algonquin Gas Transmission pipeline systems to deliver new, critically needed natural gas supplies to the New Jersey and New York area. The proposed pipeline would be capable of transporting up to 800M cubic feet per day of new natural gas supplies to the region and is targeted to be in service in Q4 2013. Specific facilities design and related costs will be finalized following the results of the project’s open season, though, aspects of the proposed expansion include:
    construction of a new, 16-mile pipeline extension that connects Texas Eastern’s existing pipeline in Staten Island, N.Y., to a new interconnect with Con Edison in New York City, NY
    replacement of five miles of existing pipeline in New Jersey and New York with larger diameter pipeline
    additional facilities on Spectra Energy’s existing Algonquin pipeline system

  76. 76
    Wyoming Says:

    68; See anyone making multi-lats the completion of choice? No, poor risk reward for land “cheap wells”. Makes more sense to try in deepwater but then the that risk reward hurts too.

  77. 77
    baylor3217 Says:


  78. 78
    zman Says:

    Pack – You had to appreciate that end of day pump job into the close, getting the SP and DJIA green.

    NG trading north of $6.02, first since this contract was the front month.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    See your test Baylor

  80. 80
    baylor3217 Says:

    Thanks Z. Hopefully we get some follow through on this NG pricing. I’m feeling a little extended to the long side here and don’t have any downside protection.

    Sometimes I like living on the edge

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    Re 80. Perhaps. But when I feel “extended” I raise cash levels taking losses or profits as they come.

  82. 82
    Jay Says:

    Re Haynesville Data.

    Not only would false data reporting be a huge offense against the State, (which could suspend your right to sell product), any royalty owner can audit their checks against the numbers being reported to the state.

    So, any attempt to fudge the data on the high side would, I think, cause the operator to have to pay the royalty owners on that higher claimed production as well. That would be very expensive – besides stupid.

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