Monday Morning And All Is Green + The Orange Charts and Lots of Other Thoughts

155 thoughts on “Monday Morning And All Is Green + The Orange Charts and Lots of Other Thoughts”

1. CXO on the tape with a Permian Basin purchase, details pre open.

2. 7:56AM Energy XXI to increase interests in core operated Gulf of Mexico Oil properties for cash considerations of $283 mln (EXXI) : Co announces it has executed a conditional purchase/sale agreement to acquire certain Gulf of Mexico shelf oil and natural gas interests from MitEnergy Upstream, a subsidiary of Mitsui & Co. (MITSY) for a headline cash consideration of $283 mln. The transaction involves mirror-image non-operated interests in the same group of properties Energy XXI purchased from Pogo Producing Company in June 2007. The properties include 30 fields currently producing 8,000 net barrels of oil equivalent per day, about 77% of which is oil and 80% of which is already operated by Energy XXI. Upon restoration of volumes pending repair of third party pipelines damaged by hurricanes in 2008, net production is expected to reach 10,000 BOE per day. Offshore leases included in the purchase total nearly 33,000 net acres. “The original Pogo property acquisition turned out to be an excellent transaction for Energy XXI, and the purchase announced today will double our interests in the same properties,” Energy XXI Chairman and CEO John Schiller said. “The synergies are obvious, as no incremental personnel, systems or other overhead will be required. Administrative and operating cash costs are expected to be reduced by about $1 per BOE overall. This transaction will boost our recent production run rate by 43% to about 27,000 BOE per day, with near-term upside anticipated.”

3. Energy XXI has scheduled a conference call for today, Monday, Nov. 23, 2009, at 9ET to discuss the acquisition. To actively participate on the conference call, please call 1 (913) 312-1494 about 5 minutes before the scheduled start time and use Confirmation Code 8423321.

4. BOP – any HT / TT thoughts? Preparing my shopping list

5. EXXI — no word on how they are going to finance the acqtn… and that is KEY to stock price reaction, of course. Don’t think it’s prudent for EXXI to take down more debt, altho the added reserves should increase their revolver limit. Currently, EXXI has $669mm debt and $124mm of availability ($14mm cash + $110mm bank revolver). Gonna make the assumption (at this point) that the acqtn is 100% equity+cash financed.

   Not sure how the stock is going to take this (although the acqtn appears to be highly attractive), but the Bondholders should be doing the HAPPY DANCE today. More assets backing up the value of your bonds… gonna guess the EXXI 10s will trade to $88.

6. TechTrader is calling for a 60/40 SHORT trade today.

   HeadTrader is suspiciously quiet, so far. Mondays are tough for him.

7. EXXI call starting.

   Crude up $1.50 (dollar down more since I posted)

   NG up 9 cents, forecast helpful but not great.

8. Analyst Watch: NFX upped to Outperform at BMO.

9. Schiller dancing pretty hard on this… but, it does sound like a good acqtn!

10. Game plan today continued from the post, will be nibbling in some of the beaten down names in the Blue charts (1 month bashing charts). Yes, that includes HK and WLL (several wells to announce prior to year end), NFX (which may have 1 last ops update prior to Christmas) but which has also seen the greatest uptick in CFPS from before 3Q earnings. Probably BEXP as they will have 3 more wells to release prior to year end. May take a little APC on a morning pullback. Also going back to WLT.

11. Great!! They have back-up financing at L+200bps. This is good news.

12. Gold up $23,

    Crude up $2 and may test $80 again. Notably products are up more.

    Big risk asset day.

13. Looks like they are throwing all kinds of BS news at the market today to try to salvage Black Friday (won’t work) and ignore the health care multi trillion albatross (won’t work either). SPY up 13 + handles.

14. EXXI — %265mm (?) estimated cost at closing… will finance with a combo of equity, cash, and some debt. Again, this is major good news for the bondholders and should be good for stock, once we know what dilution will be required.

15. BOP – it’s a good purchase price at $12.30 / BOE on the proved, especially with it being 77% oil
    Q&A starting…

16. EXXI – Shiller – if we do 100% equity it’s still highly accretive. I don’t doubt that at the discount they are getting on the barrels.

17. BOP – yeah, true on dilution, just sounds like they haven’t got it worked out yet.

18. BOP – Slide 7 will get them a lot of new attention as they move up the Shelf Players list.

19. z — but they have bank back-up at L+200bps and have already hedged the production at $75/Boe. So, at least will be doing additional equity from a position of some strength. They don’t have to beg for it.

20. Pack – saw your tweet re good news breaking out all over. Hear the sarcasm, but this is all dollar related and Ya know, some areas have been pretty beaten back. E&P for instance.

21. BOP – Have you seen a balance sheet slide, pre and pro forma, didn’t see it. Don’t know where they are after their recent debt machinations.

22. Twitter Watch: To follow us on Twitter use keyword ZmansEnrgyBrain.

23. Z – yes, where is that sarcasm font anyway ? E&P going up is ok w/ me.

    But retail, finnies, real estate ? Nah.

24. EXXI has $669mm of total debt, adjusted for the exchange.

25. Pack – oh, that other stuff. yeah, pleezzee. I think if you use Z’s in place S’s it conveys the sentiment properly, lol.

26. HeadTrader = thinking it will be hard to sustain the gap up at open during a holiday week. but, he would buy any signif pullback today.

27. EXXI equity financing is a bit open… will use more debt, if equity doesn’t like it, will have $350mm revolver available for this. And if mrkt gets really tough, can scale back what they buy from Mitsui. So, EXXI in the driver’s seat with this acqtn. Pretty positive.

28. I think for EXXI, bigger is better from a Street perspective since they are not overpaying. You couldn’t know the structure of the deal as they are going to have to road show this. I bet it’s not 100% equity, betting closer to 50 to 75% equity though. Maybe they get it down over $2.25 as people are probably going to bid this up… looks pretty on paper plus Shiller is a good explorationist but also a good exploiter and there is quite a bit here to talk about exploiting.

    Revolver $350 mm available – redetermination soon, a little messy but 2010 should be a better year to look at the balance sheet. Would be mostly undrawn were they to do 100% equity.

    No comment on how much equity. That’ll be the governor on a huge run in the stock.

29. EXXI — sounds like this acqtn happened pretty fast, so will take some back-and-forth with SEC to get documents ready to do an equity offering. But, don’t have concrete answers for equity holders yet… if this upsets someone, I would be a buyer on the back of their skittishness.

30. BOP – thanks for the added HT color.

    $160 mm drawn now.
    $— LOC
    $70 mm cash

    what else, missed that, what was on letter of credit?

31. Z-excellent orange charts-thanks.

32. EXXI stock price — agreed. The equity offering overhang could keep a lid on stock price. However, it puts them in a bit of an interesting situation, stock price wise. The acqnt is accretive with 100% equity financing… and the more the stock goes up, the less stock they have to issue to close this. Plus, have the option to use some bank debt. So, stock could spiral UP… with the more it moves up, the less dilutive it is. Sort of a “Noble Spiral” (as opposed to the “Death Spiral” usually seen in overhangs).

    Interesting situation. I am a buyer here.

33. Choices – Probably should have done more notes on them but its good to hit the reset button every once in awhile and there’s nothing like a data dump for that. All numbers are updated for 3Q, with estimates for CF and EBITDA and prices and short interest from Friday.

34. BOP – yeah, was things it could limit them to mid $2s and not $3 pre deal. Pretty positive stuff, suddenly a contender and by buying properties they already know well. It ups their risk a little from an operational standpoint but I don’t think that’s a major deal. Glad they are hedging it as a down turn in oil prices would limit their ability to do workovers, fault block exploration etc.

35. Re 30, will wait for replay to confirm those numbers, cash sounds high, couldn’t hear over my own typing.

36. choices — great buy on those EXXI bonds the other day. When you get a chance, could you see where IB is quoting them? They should be quite a bit higher… but sometimes brokers are slooooooooow in marking up their retail inventory. Can make for some good buys, until the broker wises up.

37. on exxi- i like the deal and bot some this am

    30,000 bbls would almost double revenues

    The key is how many shares do they have to issue

    maybe cov pref securites may be the way to go here with conversion at 2.50

38. ZTRADES:

    First of several nibbles today.

    WLL – Added (3) December $60 calls (WLLL) for $3.80 with the stock at 61.90. I also hold some $65 strikes here.

    HK – Added (5) December $22 calls (HKLS) for $1.10 with the stock at 21.70.

    See thoughts on the beaten down E&P sector in today’s post along with the Orange Charts Update.

39. EXXI — like the fact that mngmt can take some time (and do a road show) before placing x-amt of equity. I thought the stock was undervalued as it was, at $2/share. Now, post this aqtn, it is really undervalued. Doing a deal road show will all Schiller to reacquaint investors with EXXI’s properties and position and potential. Right at the same time as their hurricane-damaged production is all coming back on-line. I think the stock runs to about $2.50 and then stalls there.

    Any negative news from Davy Jones and/or Blackbeard doesn’t subtract from the operational upside here. Basically, at this price, you are getting any upside from EXXI’s two high-risk wells for free. My thoughts, anyway.

    z?

40. ZTRADE:

    WLT – Added (5) December $80 Calls (WLTLP) for $1.30 with the stock at $72 and moving fairly well. The name remains cheapish on forward earnings and appears poised for a break out to my layman’s technical eye.

41. Re 39 – probably a fair assessment.

42. ZTRADE

    NFX – Added (10) December $45 calls (NFXLI) for $1.15 with the stock at 42.70, up with the group and a broker upgrade. This name had the largest upgrade in terms of CFPS and EBITDA estimates since October in the Orange Charts today. They have catalyst potential in the form of more Granite Wash wells to be released around year end, but in general, just buying a cheap name after a recent pullback.

    Came out swinging today, will sit for a bit and watch.

43. Listening to EXXI replay.

44. EXXI Balance Sheet Clarification:

    $160 mm drawn on revolver now
    $15 mm letters of credit
    $70 mm cash

    as of last Friday

    Anyone have a good share count now?

45. EXXI — with the recent debt restructuring, think there are about 159mm shares o/s.

46. Existing home sales 6.1 mm, better than expected.

47. z — thanks for the revolver info. Think the numbers i was using are pro forma for debt redux.

48. Home Resales — saw something this weekend that I haven’t seen in a long time around here. A “SOLD” sign on a house. In really BIG letters, too.

49. BOP-EXXI 10’s: IB live data on my screen has quote of Bid 79.75, ask 84.5, with last trade @81.5-I do not think this is any change from Friday.

    However, the bonds I hold in IB account are valued at market of 86.625. The IB real time data for bonds must not be up to speen on data feeds from the bond broker(s).

50. BOP-tried to buy a few EXXI 10’s @ ask price and it has not executed as of yet. Last week, it was not problem.

    FWIW

51. choices — thanks for the bond price update. Someone could probably sneak in there and try to buy them at 82 or so… might take a few days for them to realize that the mark should be higher. So far, there are no trades on TRACE… so those guys are clueless that the bonds should be marked higher.

52. 1/3 of existing homes bought by first time home buyers. Makes me think that if jobs are not up in 1 year there will be a first time home buyer bailout.

53. BOP – Re EXXI, they have no senior debt now?

54. 53 – That can’t be right.

55. EXXI has $669mm of proforma debt… Bank + 2nd Lienss + 10% Srs

56. Thanks, Brain shut off for a moment. Just working up a BOE NAV.

57. z — thanks!!

58. that is $669mm of net debt, by the way

59. Nicky – Got levels?

60. Did J say that HK went on a P&F sell Friday?

61. Next buzzformation out of North Dakota: Birdbear, deeper than Bakken, thin, probably an after thought at present. May help valuation for some of the smaller guys.

62. Last Thursday Jerome wrote:

    HK gave up support this morning, its now on a P&F sell signal…also worried about AEZ…if you look at the traditional daily chart, there is a samll gap lower on the open which occured after a daily “shooting star”, yesterday, this is bearish…I’ve seen this setup many times, it’s a high probability setup for more downside, I’m going to try and buy further down, I’ll keep you posted…

63. Thank you Zman.

64. Market stalling up here at 1111 level. I have an email in with Nicky on levels. Lots more data Tuesday and Wednesday, summary of what’s coming up is in the post.

    Probably the last injection of the season and very small will be announced this Wednesday. Degree days running behind normal and last year but still starting to pile up.

65. Thanks for the Nicky email.

66. WLT – back off pretty rapidly, may take a second piece on this pullback.

67. ZTRADE:

    WLT – Added (2) WLT $70 December calls (WLTLN) for $4.50 with the stock at $70.90.

68. Choices – another thing about the Orange Charts – on the reserves section, those are 2008 reserves, so they are largely 11 months out of date, will have new numbers in February, plus you have a rules change on reserve accounting. Look for HK to come way down the list on how the market it valuing its reserves as they are probably going to grow total reserves at 80% ish when the number comes out after year end.

69. FYI – HK – Insider VP of Investor Relations Dunlap bought 4000 HK in open mkt at $22.77 on 11/16….been there since 2004……first open market purchase I can find for her.

70. Isle – thanks, they may be trying to send a message, would like to see Wilson and Stoneburner step up, also would like to see Stoneburner do the presentations.

71. FYI – Soros in last filing 9/30 increased HK stake to 900,000 shares from 400,000 at end of June

72. Housekeeping watch: will add production growth for 2010 to the Orange Charts when it becomes available, I think I only have 3 companies with 2010 out now and 1 with a 2011 number. Any other charts you think would be useful?

73. When ever I see reports that Soros, or Pickens have increase their stake in X company, I always wonder how much active management do they do in their accounts? Or, as I believe, these decisions are made by someone else, and Soros and Pickens may or may not know what is really in their account.

74. BSJ – Don’t know about George.

    TBP I’ve met and I know people who have had money with him and he can talk the individual stories very well.

75. Posted on reserves by Jay over the weekend. Scary if this guy is half right in that it will skew things and make some little fish look a lot more valuable than they are.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/174575-the-oil-casino-sec-heading-for-monte-carlo-part-i?source=email

76. TBP might talk the stories, but does some else make the buy and sell decisions? It would be very hard to be flying around the country, at Pickens age, and activity manage a stock portfoio. TBP is probably in the investment meetings where stock ideas are dicussed.

77. BSJ – he has analysts and traders, but I’m pretty certain he is in, at some level, on the buy/don’t buy decision. Once they buy I’m sure the accumulation (how fast, what price) is left to the traders.

78. Re:67 Z, what’s the rationale between expecting a 5-12% up move in WLT in the next 30 days?

79. It is probably that Pickens would set the general guide lines, like gas is cheap lets look for some gassers, or oil is expensive, lets look to cut back on our positions, etc..

    In my mutual fund days, I worked for an investment legend, and he really didn’t pick the stocks that were bought or sold, but he did sit in on the investment meetings, and road shotgun over what we did.

80. Compare this with Buffett would actually pick up the phone and says buy x amount of y shares.

81. I can tell you this about TBP, he donated a ton of money to Oklahoma St University in stock, oil futures, etc and they lost A TON of money to the point where construction is now at a stand still as they attempted to purchase their way into a contender at the college level.

    I’m not sure of his involvement after the donation but they lost well over half the money they originally received on paper.

82. Baylor – I don’t need it to rise to the strike price for it to be a profitable trade. Coal stocks have been outperforming as coal prices move up and demand increases. Met coal and generation coal have been moving well. And this particular name is still cheap despite the recent rally in the shares.

83. Re: 80, I’ve always wondered what will happen to BRK.A which i’ve been in and out of through the years once Buffett heads to that big stock exchange in the sky and if there would be a great buying opportunity there.

84. Z, 82, I hear ya on the strike price but that of course depends on how soon in the remaining days does it make a move.

    Thanks for the color on the decision to purchase.

85. BSJ – ok.

    Baylor – he donated shares of energy companies, they went down after he did, I don’t think he was involved at all. Don’t see how that’s reflective of him but I’m not defending him either, I think he is smart, and I think that what happened last year with oil prices and then gas prices was so far outside the norm that even the most experience guys in the space took a severe beating.

86. Stocks appear to be in vacation trading mode. Pop then fade slowly. Will be interesting to see market next week.

87. TBP- knows every trade he or his fund makes

88. Reef – Any word on what happened to Blueberry Hill. Total hurry up and wait headfake there.

89. Baylor: Shame on OK State for not selling the stock after they received it. I have run three university endowments and I can tell you that selling gifted stock is Standard Operating Procedure for endowments.

90. isle — that is very interesting to know about university endowment SOP on gifted stock. Thank you for sharing some investment color from your background.

91. The conspiracy theorist in me would say TBP gifted CHK stock, among other things, and that CHK’s pretty campus in OKC along with Aubrey being friends with TBP had something to do with the lack of a sale as the shares were falling. Naah, couldn’t be.

92. Re 91: Watch it Z, you are getting more like me everyday, though I am not a conspiracy theorist, lets say you have a healthy skepicism.

93. BSJ – LOL.

    Crude gains more than cut in half, whacking the S&P gains on the day as the sector which was leading eases substantially during lunch. Lot’s o’ data tomorrow.

94. BOP or anyone, did you catch the key dates for EXXI in terms of SEC and deal closure ?

95. EXXI — didn’t write it down… something like Jan 27th. SEC is 3 weeks or so. But dealing with the SEC can be a BlackBox experience. And all the SEC staff seems to disappear around the end of the year… so, EXXI might be optimistic about SEC timing.

96. Jerome – WRES when you get a chance? Thx.

97. Shocking how low the volume is on EXXI today, even for the holiday week that was pretty big news. I guess the lack of a structured deal is keeping most people on their hands. Same people will likely find more confidence to buy if the name moves up during the road show of a deal that will dilute them …funny how that works. Mulling.

98. The current holdings tab is updated for today’s trades…too much time on my hands on a quiet day.

    Stocks continue to trickle off. Crude up 70 cents, NG up 5 cents (which would be the third up day in a row).

99. z — buy a few shares of EXXI… that way, you will have more incentive to do a cash flow model on them!

100. EXXI — that said, if/when DJ and/or BB come up nada, EXXI is gonna be smacked down. THAT would be the time to really load the boat… if/when that happens.

101. BOP – Will put something together on it for the morning post, if I can get all the moving pieces together and if I don’t fall asleep.

102. great charts today. helps me keep perspective on how Mr. Market prices things.

     i ran some charts this morning – one shows that one of the canadian royalty trusts that i own (slow growth energy in my mind) has outperformed HK (big growth in my mind) over the last month by 20%. Mr. Market is tough to figure sometimes…

103. Z, I was thinking of a topic on a slow trading day like today. I took a vacation day and am mostly enjoying doing nothing.

     So here’s one for the group, what are your goals for the 10KP trading portfolio? I have certain trading / investing goals, one of which is to make money, amongst other things.

     I’m curious of yours…

104. z — just ask questions, i’ll try to fill in the blanks for you to keep you awake. Really would like to see your CF model on EXXI.

105. Senator Lincoln to introduce transparency legislation to OTC derivatives market, sounds like it will raise costs on the E&P names as custom contracts will cost more, be forced to be cleared through a clearing house, and face higher margins. Ugh.

106. Baylor – the $10KP II is my options trading vehicle, it is icing on my investment cake, and I generally keep it under 25% of the total value of holdings (right now its quite a bit less). It’s short term, action oriented, sometimes hedged with puts but more often just cash as we are in an up and to the right market most of the time. It is also volatile because it is an options portfolio. I do options outside of it but its my public presence for options. I don’t grow it to a huge number and keep that all in options as the risk there becomes to high. So periodically I cut it back to $10K (or the market cuts it back as the case may be) to keep a fresh perspective and to reduce my exposure to the risky nature of options.

107. Re 104, just dusting off a quick and dirty CF model now to start plugging away on. May be ready for tomorrow, may be for Wednesday. Either way beats staring at a market watch and maybe I convince myself to buy a little.

108. Jerome – would ask you to add WLT to that list. Failed to breakout of its recent high this morning and has beaten a retreat and now is negative on the day. Last time it did that it was two weeks of seemingly nonsense down trading, irregardless of market action, before it turned higher and went to a new high. Thanks.

109. BOP – re ? earlier, I don’t include retirement obligations in the NAV unless they are out of line with norms or are just massive.

110. #109 — thanks. I don’t either. But, not sure how others treat the obligation (i look at is as part of operating expense, spread out over time, so don’t use it in NAV either)

111. z — i mean, the ALL IN cost to bring almost 23mm BOE of PDPs on EXXI’s Balance Sheet is only $16/bbl in F&D. Wow. Seems like a heckuva deal to me!!

     Anyone out there buy any EXXI 10s today?? If so, where are they trading? Can’t get any institutional quotes today. The A Team is clearly taking the entire week off.

112. #68, thanks, Z, I need to do a lot more study on those charts-do you have or have you seen a good summarized analysis of the rule change and its effects. I have not been following it much to my chagrin.

113. Time to double-up on SD?

114. Z / VTZ / 1520sbroad, do you mind sharing a list of canadian equities you follow/trade?

115. re EXXI 10s – trades today from $81.25 to $82.50 – looks like about $7M + traded

116. Choices – I honestly think it is only going to confuse people. For those on the upper end of the trust / real company spectrum, like an EOG, I don’t think it will add much, but for little names, who play the numbers aggressively, you are likely to see some big jumps, big jumps that people will likely be quick to fade as doubt about the veracity of the claim comes to light.

117. HK having a bad day now …

118. Cargo – I’m going to wait, if I wasn’t in I’d think about adding but only with the long term in mind. It may be stagnate money for some time.

119. RE 114 – or anyone that does…

120. Pack – yep, went up less, backed off when the group did, just going red now. No reason for it other than group fade as commodities when red. Going to be somewhat slow to add as trading seems herky today and will be this week.

121. #114 – my canadian list has gotten progressively smaller and more concentrated:

     PWE – canroy
     GG – gold
     POT – fert – i follow a bunch of the other fertilizers too.
     SU – oil sands

122. Boss – I really don’t trade them. I watch TLM, NXY, ECA, SU but its really not my thing.

123. And Pack, it’s possible I’m just missing something with the name.

124. My slant on the canadian stuff is more buy and hold. No trading except for writing calls against my positions.

125. ZTRADE:

     WLL – Added another contract, tiptoeing in, of the December $60 calls for $2.90 with the stock at 60.80.

126. 1520 – then my favorite, long term thought up there is TLM, no offense to ECA which is probably more interesting. TLM is perpetually at a discount and I think will be absorbed down the road (but I’ve thought that for a decade and no joy so far).

127. Z 123 – anything is possible with this stupid market.

     BOP didja check out Hussman’s comments re: the Fed / Treasury ?

128. exxi,

     i wonder if exxi would sell off some of its speculative interests dj or bb to plow into the sure thing

     even if dj hits, then, they are rewarded with spending more money on devp wells and platforms, etc

     Id like to see them spin it off

129. isle — thanks for the bond color on the EXXI 10s. Got some colleagues trying to scoop up a few at 84. Given that $7mm have traded today, they should be able to get them… can you tell who (broker) sold ’em? CRT is strangely quiet today… think they are sitting on the bid…

130. going to get colder next week

     http://www.accuweather.com/maps-temperature.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&site=us_&type=temp&fday=3&large=0

131. Bill – yep, thanks, 30 day also:

     http://www.accuweather.com/maps-temperature.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&site=us_&large=0&fday=4&type=temp

132. Z: If the EPA protection of the mayfly will hurt the Appalachia coal producers but help the Powder River guys, does WLT fit into this catagory?

133. Tom – As I understand it that applies to mountain top removal, or MTR or the valley fill method. WLT is a deep shaft miner in Appalachia and a surface miner in Alabama.

134. 132 mayfly, what the hell is that?

135. a very old flying bug that is popular with fly fishermen.

136. Here’s the Bloomberg story on it from last week.

     http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a.yMJQ7Y5a6o

     MEE does a lot of this type of mining.

137. Brean Murray saying coal stocks fell off today on China demand slacking off 11% in October.

     It seems coal volumes were down 11% from September levels.

     And up 219% from year ago levels. So naturally, sell the stocks off. Sheesh.

138. AEZ out with a mid day ops update, 1 Niobrara recompletion in the PRB: ok rate, not a lot of details (nothing on costs, expectations), they should have saved it for a) the morning, and b) when they had something more to say. Rookie.

139. BOP re #129 – sorry can’t help on who had traded them. $84 should get you some……

140. PackMan #127 — no. You have a link?

     I find Timmy to be a major disappointment. I think he lost a lot of lunch money to bullies on the playground when he was young. I don’t think he ever learned how to stand up to pressure. Goldman Sachs played him like a fiddle.

141. Thanks, isle. Got people out there, trying to transact at the 84 level. You are right, they should trade there.

142. EXXI 10’s-my attempt to buy a few @84.5 still has not been executed altho volume appears to be 11.23 mil-last trade @82.5 all according to IB screen (bid/ask has not moved)

143. beerthirty

144. choices — thanks for your update. Wonder why they “can’t” execute your order? That is highly irritating.

145. Inflation thoughts… i totally agree with this.

     http://www.capmarkets.com/ViewFile.asp?ID1=127810&ID2=372467341&ssid=1&directory=13625&bm=0&filename=11.23.09_Belief_Hospice.pdf

146. GEOI on conf. call for 3mm share deal (with 15% shoe) estimated EUR for industry across whole Bakken play at 400m. (Z, that makes the blood rush to my toes on AEZ NAV.)
     Since cash flow about carries 2 yr. capx budget of $90mm, deal will allow them to participate in “active acq. market” in ’10 and could increase their positions “appreciably” by 1Q10. Sounds like they will be at least somewhat more proactive to the St.

147. color from my High Yield hedge fund friend… “lots of EXXI 10s traded today at 82.5… ” So, not sure why people can’t get their order filled at 84. But, i know at least 2 people who tried there and the desk never called them back. Reminder… you have to be a PAIN (sometimes) to get bond desks to actually do any work!!

148. BOp # 140

     http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/11/hussman-accuses-fed-and-treasury-of.html

149. About 1 year ago the market rallied 500 points on the announcement that Timmy would by Sec Treas.

150. BSJ #73 re: Soros; as he in the past outsourced funds intenally and externally to managers w/ diff strategies (think Bob raiff, or Druckenmiller, or PC Chatterjee or others), he generally would not be up on or involved in those positions.

     But it still gets reported as “Soros” did this or that. Much like “Fidelity” did this or that.

     Wouldn’t make too much of it, unless it was a gargantuan position.

151. BOP: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091124/ap_on_bi_ge/us_ap_poll_stressing_over_debt

152. PackMan — ha! No argument from me. I’m saving my money in anticipation of having to buy an expensive insurance plan, as my “high deductible” plan (plus HSA) does not qualify for what the Dems want me to force me to buy.

153. RE: #60, HK is now trading on a P&F sell signal with the print of $21…expect resistance on a rally back to the 200 day SMA at around $22.50, from here, a print of $24 would three box reverse the stock, trapping the bears…this reversal would really improve the technical structure quite a bit

     Re: #96 WRES…stays on a P&F buy signal until a print of $1.75, but is currently in a col of o’s near major support, this zone of strong support is between $1.75 and $2, WRES seems to now be forming a descending triangle on the daily chart after the initial breakout above three dollars back in early Sept with overhead resistance again from here at about $2.75, this area of resistance at $2.75 to $3, is an important technical spot as WRES goes back into x’s on the print of $3, $2.75 has been an area of resistance since as far back as May, $3 print from here would reverse the stock back into x’s and would be a second test of this resistance zone….

154. PackMan — 140+148… The Fed and the Treasury have way overstepped their boundaries… and seem to know no new ones (boundaries, that is). Some things about banks need to be kept private (confidentiality supposedly keeps us all calm and prevents premature runs on banks), but both Timmy and Ben have overplayed their hands… both for different reasons. I won’t rehash the fact that we were seconds away from a global run on the banks at this time last year. And for stopping that, we have Ben and Paulson to thank. But we all know what absolute power does…. the Govt took it too far. The concept of the original TARP was needed. What was implemented amounted to a bait-and-switch on the American Taxpayer. I could go on and on… but you know what I think already.

     Govt policy and their own lack of self-regulation was the main cause of all this. And for a “cure”? Well… we are going to get more and more of the same. I’ll shut up now.

155. Thanks Jerome

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