21
Oct
Wednesday Morning Oil Preview, Gas Storage Thoughts + Coal Earnings Notes
In Today's Post:
- Holdings Watch
- Commodity Watch
- Oil Inventory Preview
- Stuff We Care About Today - WLT - good quarter, NBR - not so much
- Odds & Ends
Holdings Watch:
- $10KP II:
- $34,900
- 64% Cash
- The Current Holdings Tab is updated.
- $34,900
- Yesterday's Trades:
- HK – Added (10) November $30 Calls (HKKF) for $0.85 to start.
- HK – Added (10) more HK $30 November calls (HKKF) for $0.60 with the stock at $27.40, and the group and broader indexes off on the housing data out this morning.
- SWN – Added (5) SWN $50 November Calls (doubles the TKQKJ position) with the stock off 2.6% at $48.90. Natural gas is trying to close north of $5 for the first time since August. Earnings come out at the end of the month here.
- MMR – Added (5) November $7.50 calls (MMRKU) for 1.78 average with the stock jumping up to $9. This is a pure speculation on near term well results (see post for details).
Commodity Watch:
Crude oil fell $0.84 to close at $79.12 yesterday. After the close, the API released bearish looking data and crude reacted with a modest sell off. This morning crude is trading off $1.00+ in early trading.
- Mexico Watch: Cantarell production declines are said to be stabilizing; Mexico's energy minister says the country can maintain production at 2.5 mm bop "for coming years". I'll believe it when I see it.
"Devastating Oil Crisis" Watch: From the chairman of Hess ~
“The price of $140 per barrel of oil was not an aberration; it was a warning,” said Hess. “The approaches of both consumers and producers are based on hope, but what we need is a sober reality. The reality is that an oil crisis is coming that could prove devastating to future economic growth. Given the long lead times of five to 10 years from oil discovery to production, we need to act now to avert this outcome.” This is the third "Big Oil" head in the last few days to comment on this.
Natural gas jumped $0.32 (7%) to close the day at $5.16 yesterday. This is the first close north of key psychological resistance at $5 since the move off the bottom began. This morning gas is trading off slightly.
- Early Read On Natural Gas Storage: Street Looking For 23 Bcf Injection vs ...
- 71 Bcf last year
- 58 Bcf 5 year average
- If we come in at 23 Bcf this would put storage at 3,739 Bcf with 2 to 3 more weeks left in the injection season.
- Next week's injection will likely be larger given the weather but would still leave us on trend to top out at or below the 3,850 Bcf mark.
- Many of the most vocal bears (and large natural gas shorts I presume) have been calling for storage to exceed 4 Tcf.
- Taking a look at injections after this week to the end of the injection season ...
- Average = 100 Bcf
- High = 154 Bcf
- Low = 0 Bcf
- ...These would, assuming 23 is the correct number for this week, yield end storage of 3,739 Bcf to 3,893 Bcf. We knew we'd be very full and those end storage numbers, at this point should not be that frightening to the market.
Oil Inventory Preview
API Watch:
- CRUDE: UP 3.847 mm barrels – probably a combo of higher imports and lower throughput.
- GASOLINE: DOWN 0.587 mm barrels
- DISTILLATES: DOWN 0.998 mm barrels
ZComment: I was looking for an upside surprise in oil and got it with the API numbers. That doesn't mean EIA does the same but it probably means things are aligning that way. I care more about refinery throughput and how far it fell and therefore what part of the build in crude was caused by that slippage than I do about a rally in imports, which I thought to be likely in this week's data. For more on how I look at the numbers as they come out of EIA see the next section.
Stuff We Care About Today
Interpreting The Wednesday EIA Oil Inventory Release
- First, start with all the data, this is obtained from the EIA at 10:30 EST in their "Special File"
- Know the estimates. The Street generally is looking for three main numbers: Change in Oil, Gasoline, and Distillate Inventories. These are "The Big 3".
- Know what the average change or the typical trend of change is for this time of year. This is why I publish and track the data for not only inventories but also, imports, production, and demand. This helps pinpoint divergences to the Street estimates.
- While many analysts/shops do a good job of trying to nail the weekly numbers these are just estimates and trendology and averages enter into the equation. At other shops, when the survey guy calls asking for the number he is often met with "what have you got so far?" Lame but true.
- The market often reacts in knee jerk fashion to the release of "The Big 3 Numbers".
- Many weeks, this knee jerk reaction is wrong. By wrong I mean that crude or gasoline prices will reverse their original move by the end of the day due to factors contributing to the numbers.
- This is where the special file comes in handy. The file has a wealth of data. When I tool through it initially I note the following items in addition to "The Big 3"
- For oil:
- Refinery Utilization AND Refinery Inputs (they don't always jive)
- Crude Imports
- Change in Inventories at Cushing- not that important but the trend here does influence pricing.
- For Gasoline and Distillates:
- Production
- Imports
- Demand
In order of relevance the numbers go (at least to me) demand, production, then imports. Imports are generally lumpy in nature and have little to do with supply and demand and more to do with logistical concerns like weather or with price. Large dips in imports are often reversed out in upcoming weeks to the net effect of moving in a fairly seasonal way. Basically I look for reasons why the Big 3 came out the way they did; does it make sense from a season context. Sometimes the data line up and you can say "ok then", other times they make little to no sense (it is government data and partially a survey at that after all) and this is when experience comes into play.
This section will be archived on the Dictionary tab.
Earnings Watch:
WLT Reports Big Top & Bottom Line Beats; Guides To Bigger Long Term Growth
The 3Q Numbers:
- Revenue of $278 mm vs $223 mm expected
- Coking (metallurgical) coal sales were well above the high end of forecast at 1.9 mm tons, up 35% from the year ago quarter and a record, echoing comments regarding strong demand for met coal from (BTU) on their conference call yesterday.
- Margins were much higher than expected for coking sales and were just above the high end of the range for steam and industrial coals.
- This yields the following:
- Coking (metallurgical) coal sales were well above the high end of forecast at 1.9 mm tons, up 35% from the year ago quarter and a record, echoing comments regarding strong demand for met coal from (BTU) on their conference call yesterday.
- EPS of $0.45 vs $0.27 expected
Favorite Quote Watch:
"Our third quarter performance illustrates the strong demand for our high quality coking coal,"
"We continue to see improving market conditions for our product..."
"We expect continued improvement in market conditions for the remainder of 2009," said Patrick. "Moving into 2010, we are seeing increasing demand for premium mid- and low-vol coals from our key product destinations, as well as Asia, with port constraints in Australia continuing to make high-quality coking coals a scarce resource."
Nutshell:
- Better than expected margins for 4Q guidance
- Strong volume 4Q guidance
- Coking volumes are on track for 8 mm tons in 2010 and "up to" 9.5 mm tons in 2012.
- Estimates for the remainder of 2009 and for 2010 are likely to be dialed up following this release
- All in all, a very good quarter and outlook
Valuation: Still Cheap Despite The Run:
- 2009: 27x Est EPS of $2.40
- 2010: 11x Est EPS of $5.96
- 2011: 8.2x Est EPS of $7.99
As compared to the coal group:
Conference Call: Today, 10 am EST.
NBR Reported A Top Line Miss; Says Results "Bottoming"
The 3Q Numbers: (which I'm pretty sure no one really cares about)
- Revenue of $803 vs $849 mm expected
- EPS of $0.18 vs $0.18 expected. (very noisy number)
Interesting Quote Watch:
"We expect this quarter to represent the bottom in our consolidated results for this cycle. This is best illustrated by the bounce we have experienced in our US Lower 48 land drilling operations where we have seen over 20 rigs return to work since the low point in early August. We have also seen modest rate increases on high efficiency rigs in selected markets. In addition, we are receiving an increasing number of inquiries regarding incremental first quarter start-ups.
we already have a 2010 contract backlog which is approximately 20 percent higher than the anticipated full year results for 2009.
Nutshell: Not a great looking quarter but multiple rays of light, watching no action from me for now.
Conference Call: Today, 11 EST
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch:
- (DVN) cut to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
- (OII) target raised from $60 to $69 at Jefferies
Setback for US crackdown on oil speculation
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f29dfaf2-bdd9-11de-9f6a-00144feab49a.html
October 21st, 2009 at 7:37 amRefreshing. Someone actually thinking about the consequences of their actions before actually acting.
October 21st, 2009 at 7:45 amMorning Z, thanks for finding the EIA piece.
October 21st, 2009 at 7:54 amBoss – Could not find so re-wrote. Feel free to ask me more specific questions as that didn’t cover everything.
Analyst Watch:
October 21st, 2009 at 7:56 amPritchard ups ATPG target from $21 to $25.
Art Cashin – basically said if we go up it’s bad and if we go down it’s bad. Man is he a stopped clock these days. No disrespect intended and I get him on the precarious state of the recovery but he mixes in TA at times and feels free to abandon it as its gone against him. Has he been a bear since the lows? When things recovery, and they will, earnings leverage to revenue growth will be considerably higher than it would have been even a year ago due to cost cutting.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:02 amAnalyst Watch:
Credit Suisse starts U.S. energy MLPs at Overweight.
LINE still yielding 10.5% and their distribution is likely to be increased slightly over the next 3 years, probably each year. Secured on the down side by 100% hedge position and a long reserve/production ratio that means declines are low and therefore maintenance capex requirement is low. I assume they will pick off some cheap, accretive assets though and they have production upside in some of their properties that could be easily cranked up. Along with their high free cf to payout (coverage ratio) you get secure payouts and the likelihood of increased ones.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:07 amAnyone see a news story on SWN, got a ticker bug but don’t have access.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:22 amSame ? for MMR
October 21st, 2009 at 8:22 amTechTrader out with a 55/45 SHORT call today. Basically, short the morning rally.
HeadTrader thinks it’s healthy to back-and-fill for a while longer.
But here’s the bottom line — The Easy Part of the rally is over. It gets harder from here.
Like we had in 2003 vs 2004. 2003 climbed a wall of worry (and boy, did it climb!). 2004 was very volatile, mostly down the 1st 1/2 of the year, then up. 2005 was pretty flat, until the 4Q. We didn’t get another good “2003-type” rally until the 2nd half of 2006. Think we are facing that scenario again.
So, what works? Careful stock picking. Staying nimble. Knowing your story and fundamentals. Watching for pinch-points in the economy (hint: employment isn’t one of them, like it was last time around), and basically doing your homework. Anyone who was long, or got long from March through now made a lot of money. That was the easy part. Don’t look for that to repeat. But doesn’t mean we can’t find stuff that will rally nicely… just it won’t be “across the board.” Well, maybe for a month or two longer, as some people may still try to arrive late to the Rally Party. But 2010 will probably be a pretty tough year. Gotta do your homework, from here on out.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:23 amMore on Kass: Z, your comment on he is usually right but often early. Is that like a prediction today that we should run for the hills, because one day the Yellowstone super volocano is going to explode or someday the sun is going to die. That is not really helpful for living in the present.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:24 amGot sent the CS piece on MLPs. Those are pipe, not E&P MLPs they initiated on.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:24 amMLPs might not be a bad place to sit, with a good chunk of your core cash, through 2010. Maybe someone(s) with expertise in that area (pipeline, infrastructure) could start to keep a running commentary on them. Would help me a lot!
October 21st, 2009 at 8:27 amE&C might get more interesting here too… just some thoughts.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:27 amBSJ – He himself says he’s usually early. He means by a few weeks to a month or two, not millennia.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:28 amNG up 3 pennies
Oil off 50 to 70 cents depending on the tick, going to be volatile into EIA at 10:30 EST.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:30 amBEXP should price after the close today.
z, did you get a chance to run through the roadshow? any thoughts?
October 21st, 2009 at 8:32 amGood numbers out of WLT, market doesn’t care yet. I may bite on a little as per post.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:32 amBOP – could not get it to open.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:33 amNG up 8 cents. Short covering. See comments on tomorrow’s storage number in post.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:37 amZTRADE:
WLT – Added (2) November WLT $60 Calls (WLTKL) for $7.80 with the stock at 65.80. Earnings call at 11 EST. I liked the numbers as per comments in the post.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:40 amz — BEXP sure seems to want to stay above $10. Pretty astonishing. Would bode well for trading action, post 2ndary, you think? Guess people like the oily story and 700+ drilling locations.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:41 amOption question Z: why did you pick the 60’s on WLT?
October 21st, 2009 at 8:42 amBOP – re BEXP. Yes.
BSJ – The stock is normally not a big options trader, has wider spreads, higher strikes looked pretty expensive to me and I was able to split the bid/ask while getting into a .75 delta option that’s mostly intrinsic value. Given the high premiums of those out of the money calls AFTER the release of earnings combined with the failure of the stock to move on the numbers but before the conference call it seemed like the best move.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:46 amz – do u ever consider selling out of the money calls against your in the money calls. just looked at WLT and they do look expensive
October 21st, 2009 at 8:51 amKyle – ahhh. You’ve stumbled upon what will be new with the 10KP III. For the most part I’m a KISS trader. But yeah, that one’s pretty obviously a good choice for cost reduction.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:54 amHK – Interesting action, people expecting that beat? People expecting that their can’t be a deal this time? Time will tell.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:55 ambn- no new news on MMR or SWN
October 21st, 2009 at 8:55 amBOP – I’m stunned by the action in BEXP. Would have thought down between 5 and 10% on the deal announcement with a 2 to 4 week hangover. Certainly not flat. Will try to get that presentation open after EIA and the WLT call.
Hey, WLT waking up with the market.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:56 amReef – Much obliged.
By the way, that gas strip is looking better these days.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:57 amBEXP is selling itself as the most leveraged to the Bakken/3FS + other mysterious — but oily — horizons that might appear in the WB.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:59 amha! or maybe — post Galleon — it’s just funds covering the shares they shorted into the 2nday….
October 21st, 2009 at 9:00 amBOP – Re 30. Is that on a total company reserves vs potential Bakken reserves basis? They’re obviously not counting the single digit midget crowd.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:02 amMMR = WOW. On a related note MMR partner EXXI running into difficulty getting debt exchange done. Could get interesting.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:08 amAnybody got a handle on why the market is suddenly back in happy-happy-joy-joy territory?
Eli – check your email.
Eli – does EXXI have converts?
October 21st, 2009 at 9:09 amz — re 32 yeah. I think it was. Didn’t blow up that slide (and it was tiny, on my screen). I think they had KOG in there too… and i can’t think of any company who’s future is more tied to the Bakken/3FS than KOG. So, i discounted that slide. When you go thru the presentation later today, perhaps you can take a closer look.
As i said, i tend to discount those type of slides as they cherry-pick the data to fit their argument.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:12 amCorrection on EXXI as 92% have been tendered. I guess people find 16 % attractive after all.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:13 am#34 one thing, Wells Fargo CFO talking about paying back the TARP.
HeadTrader thinking maybe people just buying the better EPS instead of selling, for a change.
i.e. no real reason.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:15 amBoss, if you load this link into another tab on your browser you can get the data as it comes out.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/txt/wpsr.txt
Much preferable to having Epperson on CNBC scream the big 3 at you and little else of value from the pit.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:16 amLooks like a breakout on the MMR chart to my technical eye. Decent volume for the time of day.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:19 amEIA in 10 minutes, stocks backing off a little in front of that as usual.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:21 amZ, I think WLT should be given a higher multiple (per you coal stocks charts), than your typical thermal coal company. Coking coal is much more valuable because it is rarer. WLT is almost 100% a coking coal company.
Since I think Kass is a pompous windbag with illusions of grandure, I guess we won’t have to have are DNA tested for relativness as per the other day.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:30 amEIA Oil Inventory Report:
Crude at time of report 78.75, down 38 cents
Crude up 1.3 mm barrels
Gasoline down 2.3 mm barrels
Distillates down 0.8 mm barrels
Crude imports : 9 mm bopd , healthy increase back to mid range
Gasoline demand: fell back off to 8.95 mm bpd, on seasonal trend
Distillate demand: eased to 3.487, not great, not great at all.
….
October 21st, 2009 at 9:31 amBSJ — it’s not Kass… it’s his gnomes. They have gigantic egos!
October 21st, 2009 at 9:31 amBSJ – I think he’s pompous as well but there are smart yet pompous people.
More EIA
Correction on imports: eased to 8.7 mm bopd, sets up a big build next week. Surprising low here. Not going to stay here.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:33 amEvery commodity on my screen went green on the numbers. Stocks not quite as impressed.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:37 amMore EIA
Oil liking the numbers, though not as much as gasoline is. Gasoline should not be all that happy with these numbers. We went from record highs for the week last report to the lows for the week….which means EIA is doing a little balancing to get things squared away. Energy taking the report in a mutedly positive way. I don’t see any reason for me to add to anything on this data nor to jump ship. I’d bet next Wednesday we get a big build in crude stocks.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:38 amQuestion on imports, during the extreme contango in oil, alot of oil was stuck on tankers as storage. Since the contango has lessen, that oil is coming ashore. Does anyone know how many tankers are still being used in that storage capacity?
October 21st, 2009 at 9:39 amBSJ – I don’t know that number, I hear it is large, especially for heavy crudes. It is also large for distillate products. But as to the actual size everyone seems to be guessing. FRO might have a handle on that or Bill might from his readings.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:41 amBOP with BEXP it $10.35, they could price in the hole at $10 and I’d bet would have good follow on demand. Checking on that book build now.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:44 amZ,
October 21st, 2009 at 9:45 amCould you write about how you analyze natural gas numbers?
z — BEXP, thinking the same thing. Jefferies is running the book… would LOVE to hear any color. But, judging from the stock action, thinking people who put in won’t get full allocation.
The stock action is creating a giant sucking sound… of institutionals being drawn in. Nice to see.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:46 amBoss – but then you wouldn’t need me.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:46 amBOP – checking. Would very much like to see them all get 75 to 80% allocations. I’ve been doing this a pretty long time and these post secondary announcement pops, at least in energy, are what we call rare. They are the underwriter’s, company’s, salesman’s, and analyst’s wet dream.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:50 amhahaah I don’t think I could replace your experience/knowledge…so much to learn, so little time
October 21st, 2009 at 9:51 amBOP: easy. Lets see, a ton of acerage in the hottest oil play in the US. Plus last wells show that maybe BEXP has “broken the code”.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:52 amz — I know they are rare… that is what makes watching BEXP here so very interesting. It’s like seeing a Quetzal in the wild.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:55 amBoss – ok, then its basically, estimated production plus imports less estimated demand. I used to run an overly complex model on it when I was the North American natural gas demand analyst for Jefferies but I have since simplified my procedures. I’m not a pipe flow model guy although that route has its merits, I just don’t have the staff for it.
WLT call in 5
October 21st, 2009 at 9:56 amtph had comments on run up from july lows
oil did better than ng
pxp underperformed the bunch on the oil side
swn chk and hk on the ng side
I think pxp has some catch up to do
One of the most bullish factors is reserves that they lost due to prices all come back and since they wrote down the asset dda should be lower and profits higher. They are unhedged to the upside on oil and ng in 2010
October 21st, 2009 at 9:57 amOh, one other thing
whats good for mmr is also good for partners exxi and pxp
October 21st, 2009 at 9:58 amI’m an idiot. WLT call has been on for 55 minutes. Ugh.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:58 amBill – thank you.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:59 amNuts. Other than them saying thanks for listening I missed that entire call. Will circle back in an hour for the replay.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:01 amz — #57… your PAST LIFE revealed!! You must still be a tad feverish…
October 21st, 2009 at 10:01 amBOP – Just a part of it. Tit for tat.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:04 amI think the PXP Nov30s at 2.00 would be a nice addition… missed it this morning. But, in this mrkt, patience is often rewarded.
Unless you thought you would get BEXP at $9.00. That might take a bit longer…
October 21st, 2009 at 10:05 amZ my server and email system are doing the Hotel California thing but the answer to your earlier question is yes.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:09 amReef – would you not suspect that Moffett will come with good news faster than he would with no news or bad news?
Stocks paying more attention to the gyrations of the S&P than to oil. NG back to even on the day. Stocks look bored.
Hearing SWN to get mention in a popular financial paper.
Admin tells me still no Bio for BOP.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:12 amnext PXP resistance at $32-$33, this would be a third retest since June…the more times resistance is tested the greater the probability of a break
October 21st, 2009 at 10:13 amJerome — have I told you lately, how great it is to have you around? Thank you.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:15 amsaw this on apc
ANADARKO PETROLEUM (APC) ACCUMULATE
Goes Two for Two in Big Wildcats this Week February 4, 2009
APC announced its second deep water Gulf of Mexico discovery this week. The Shenandoah
well in Walker Ridge encountered net pay sands approaching 300 feet of thickness in the lower
tertiary horizon—in the Wilcox sands. For us, the amount of pay sand (300 feet) encountered could
indicate a 500 million barrel size discovery.
Initial data indicates the discovery has reservoir sands that are of much higher quality in terms
of porosity and permeability than the industry has seen. APC’s explorationists have been trying to
distinguish themselves on this, and on this attempt, they apparently have had success.
THE SHENANDOAH WELL
The Shenandoah well in Walker Ridge encountered net pay sands approaching 300 feet of
thickness in the lower tertiary horizon—in the Wilcox sands. We estimate that the gross potential
of Gulf of Mexico low-tertiary prospects to range between 100 million to 500 million barrels
plus. This well was drilled in 5,750 feet of water to a total depth was about 30,000 feet.
Initial data indicates the discovery has reservoir sands that are of much higher quality in terms of
porosity and permeability than the industry has seen. APC’s explorationists have been trying to
distinguish themselves on this, and on this attempt, they apparently have had success. (This was
a point they articulated on yesterday’s conference call when probed about what differentiated
their program versus competitors) Sources have indicated to us extremely good porosity and
permeability numbers given the burial depth and stress placed on the reservoir.
There have now been about six to seven lower tertiary discoveries made by the industry since
2002. The discoveries in this play have been led by BP (Not Rated) and Devon Energy
(Accum). Prior to today’s announcement, APC participated (20% interest) in the largest
discovery made by industry to date – Kaskida, discovered in 2006. Another discovery was Jack,
found in 2004, which APC did not have ownership in, but the company did purchase important
well flow test results (Jack is the only lower tertiary well ever flow tested) and received other
key data from that discovery.
To frame out Anadarko’s Shenandoah discovery, Kaskida had 800 feet of pay sand and is
October 21st, 2009 at 10:17 amestimated to contain 2 billion plus barrels of reserves, and Jack, which had 350 feet of pay sand,
is estimated to contain a billion barrels. By our estimates, the amount of pay sand (300 feet of
thickness) encountered in Shenandoah could indicate a 500 million barrel size discovery.
Therefore, APC, with a 30%, working interest would have 150 million barrels net to its interest.
Hear ya Bill, MMR after same deep tertiary as Kaskida with its shallow water, ultra deep program. Shallow water targets of significant size are going to be a lot cheaper to drill in 10 to 100 feet of water than they are out in Walker Ridge in 7,000 feet of water (where the day rate on the rig will be in the $500 to $600K per day range). Also, MMR is sidetracking from existing well bores now, so the first 10 to 15,000 feet go kind of quick, lol.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:21 amWhich brings to mind the idea that if MMR, which has 15 more of these deep prospects worked up, makes this work, they have a target on their heads.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:22 amRE: #69, thanks BOP, I’m one of group waiting for that pullback to $9 in BEXP, I feel like the “Maytag repair man” waiting for a BEXP retrace…looks like BEXP trying for a third test of the daily ascending triangle at $11…at this point I would consider buying stock at the 20 day SMA which from here is $9.50, also right above daily trendline support, but it looks like it might run without me…
October 21st, 2009 at 10:25 amWLT – listening to replay now.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:28 amJerome — talking to some other buy-siders, they think BEXP is pretty fully price here. ‘Course, they said that yesterday… so, obviously there are buyers on the other side of that remark.
But, it’s just shocking to see a stock behave like this, looking in the jaws of a 2ndary. Never would have guessed this. Tells me, bulls are snorting about the direction of oil prices.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:29 amI see all this bullish talk on MMR, but I don’t see anybody really doing any buying of the stock or options. In my view, there are good spec and bloody stupid spec, and this is a good spec.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:33 amBSJ – I bought a little yesterday, waiting on news to buy more.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:35 amCrude trading 80.10
October 21st, 2009 at 10:35 amCrude ripping higher, probably not a healthy thing, too far too fast in my book. Fast Money crew will be screaming for 84.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:38 amBOP – re BEXP – still no feedback on the book. Will keep bugging people. I’m a little dubious of this run, wondering if management doesn’t upsize the deal.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:41 amThe dog in the night that didn’t bark observations: BEXP, it should have gone down but it hasn’t. WLT, it should have gone up but hasn’t.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:41 amMMR, EXXI- back on track and parallel. Moffett probably waiting on OSU/UT outcome…
October 21st, 2009 at 10:42 amz — the BEXP run had the feel of short-covering to it. There’s not a lot short, only 3.74mm as per last report. Still… a lot of ground covered, ahead of pricing this afternoon.
But, hey. It BEXP is “fully-valued” here, then the offering isn’t all that “dilutive,” is it? LOL.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:43 amHas anyone noticed, how often the Fast Money crew have switched jobs? And it is usually some stupid job like investment strategist at one of the 10 million hedge funds.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:45 amWLT – listening to call now, nothing negative so far, all very positive on the demand side. I may add more if it stays down and trades lower tomorrow.
Reef – Hope it doesn’t depend on the outcome, Colt’s throwing too many picks these days.
BSJ = LOL.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:47 amZ, WLT is dropping like a stone. What does the market don’t like?
October 21st, 2009 at 10:50 amATPG goes back on a P&F buy signal on a print of $23, I have the previous recent high at $22.99 on 9/22/09, someone is watching this level…
October 21st, 2009 at 10:54 amBSJ – Don’t know yet. It picked a direction and there is fear selling piling on. Listening to the analysts questions and responses to the quarter all pretty positive so if its down at the end of the day I would imagine their notes tomorrow will be all the more glowing but still listening to the replay.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:55 ambexp amazes at 10.59
climbs into an offering
mcf, no debt, no costs..7 people, no ng hedges, production growing 8 bcf for q3 and q4 at 5 per mcf 40 m in revenue would equal 30 m in cash flow about 2 bucks per share Pretax 8 per year, stock trading at less than 7 times
every 1 dollar in ng prices = 2 bucks per share
so at 6 ng, its trading at 5 times cash flow
pure way to play rebound in ng
October 21st, 2009 at 10:57 amFor what its worth dept: I just bought some Nov 70’s of WLT. I am kind of leary of this because I don’t like when stocks should do one thing but don’t.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:58 amMCF is the safest way to play nat gas. It is really a terrific company.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:01 amThe increased demand for met coal benefits drybulk. Is this DSX?
October 21st, 2009 at 11:01 amWLT – in “weak gets weaker” mode. People see other stuff working, why bother trying to figure out why its not running, looking at the chart’s run, they sell. Still not hearing anything negative. This looks like profit taking. Don’t know where it settles out but would guess if the market goes red the loss on the day doubles. If market gain doubles this comes back to somewhere just short of even. My time frame is longer so I really am not overly concerned. May add more if it goes into a real downward spike. Still listening.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:11 amEnergy largely asleep to the move in oil. Probably wakes up if oil closes up here at 2:30 EST and the broad market hangs in there.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:16 amI wonder if ATPG still has enough energy to break a new buy signal…the current rally off the Oct retracement back to the $16 level has been on decreasing average vol…higher prices on decreasing vol is generally something to keep an eye on…I’m going to be watchful for a lower high on the daily chart
October 21st, 2009 at 11:17 amit’s the Noon Swoon…
October 21st, 2009 at 11:17 amOn msn there is an article DR OZ 25 health tips: one of the tips menetions if a guy in his 50’s can have sex 700 times a year would make him look and feel years younger. Lets see that is having sex 2 time a day, everyday of the year. I guess besides feelling and looking younger, he could also be looking for work into some “off market videos”.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:20 amCargo – they move coal, noy sure if its coking coal or not, probably.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:25 amLooks like KOG is going to have two good wells east of the River.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:25 amwest — any additional color there? The TeddyBearCam has been silent, recently.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:27 amHey West, good to hear.
WLT Call Wrap
Positive stuff as per the pr. Customers accelerating orders. Demand remains strong.
When you look at the coking market:
2008: 240 mm tons (the entire seaborne market)
2009: 210 mm tons
The 30 mm ton drop was the low quality stuff
For WLT:
2008: 5.8 mm tons
2009: 6.4 mm tons
So they increased shipped volumes during the worst contraction in steel production in our lifetimes. Reason = quality of product.
2010: 8 mm tons.
They could do 8.4 mm tons if you include purchased product they have yet to sell. This is a higher ash product so they have to blend it. Since the market is not liking the higher ash product right now, they are sitting on it. Again, 8 mm in 2010 vs 6.4 mm in 2009. Analysts all pleased about this level.
By 2012 level of 9.5 mm in the press release was 0.5 mm tons higher than analyst crowd thought they could do so that’s upside to the long range.
The one negative which should be well known by now. China’s inventories have increased for both met coal and steel. They are still short coal relative to their historic inventories. They sounded very doubtful that China would suddenly stop or drastically reduce met coal imports.
Analyst after analyst congratulating them on the quarter. This looks like a little bit of profit taking. Again, I’m likely to wait a day or two before doing anything more here.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:37 amBill’s # 70 is just what MMR is saying about their hopes for the Wilcox. It is nice to see APC agreed in 2/09!
October 21st, 2009 at 11:41 amVNR’s distribution announcement, conviently calculating current yield (10.6%) for the mathamatically challanged, got my att’n as my target for LINE (10.2% now) had been 10%. I think 10% is also the St.’s average yield target. So the question becomes does the E&P MLP group head to a lower yield plateau from here? Taking my clue from BOP’s Xasset class strategist, I think he is saying no because spreads have returned to something-like logical, credit mkts are very open, and the mkts need time to digest this move and before finding a reason to move to a new lower yield level. This is really a question I am pondering so comments/thoughts are welcome.
KOG observation: at $2.80 it has retraced 50% of it’s move from $5.40 to $.20. Stocks often stall after 50% retracements FWIW.
RMD – my thought is that the low quality MLPs outperform for a bit. They have been doing this already, even the flotsam names that have suspended their distributions. Goes to this market’s increased appetite for risk. 6 months ago 80% debt to cap was a no-no. Now its an opportunity. Me? I’ll stay with what I know and get paid. Let the BBEP’s of the world run without me.
Crude > $81. The numbers really weren’t that good. Its on a mission to $84 according to all the TA folks. Will see if I can find Nicky.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:45 amFrom the compliance department challenged regarding NE’s pending earnings:
Z: Just want to go on record before numbers are released. Rev 906 op cost 410 ibt 500 net 401 eps 1.53. Will listen for on CC: Switz effect. Update on newbuilds. Profit margins and tender trends. S
October 21st, 2009 at 11:48 amWLT back to even.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:48 amFrom Nicky:
Hi Z
Will try and come on the site but meantime its all going to plan! We are in v up on everything and v down on dollar which looks close to being done. Not sure whether metals are going to make a new high or whether the top is in for them and this is a wave ii. Oil could be the thing that tanks the broader market if this carries on. I have resistance at 83 and then obvious as we know is 85 – 86 then 91.
Broader market still looking at 1113 – 1121 to top this move but may only manage 1107 – 9.
N
October 21st, 2009 at 11:53 amBEXP @ 10.97
October 21st, 2009 at 12:01 pmBEXP …. ummmm. Wow. Somebody just lifted most of the calls i bought yesterday at 75c for 1.45. Wow. Must be headed a lot higher. LOL.
October 21st, 2009 at 12:03 pmThoughts on FCC calls into earnings?
October 21st, 2009 at 12:07 pmWhat’s FCC?
Hearing BEXP book building “nicely”
October 21st, 2009 at 12:08 pmz – are those NE guesstimates above or below what’s forecast?
October 21st, 2009 at 12:15 pmAny comments on the dollar?
Tks,
October 21st, 2009 at 12:16 pmBB
NFX at $50. Slow steady pace.
Dollar rolled over a couple of hours ago, being sited as most of the reason for the move in crude. These are new lows for this breakdown.
Kyle: Those are in line.
October 21st, 2009 at 12:19 pmLooks like both wells have been fraced and are being hooked up to production tanks. Large gas flare which probably associated with flow back from frac. This area east of the river is closer to MRO existing gas lines, so if they don’t do a package deal for the entire prospect, they could have this hooked up in a realatively short time. This will probably give them the information that they need to do a gas deal to the south to an existing plant where they would also get a premium for strippable liquids. Since we are close to earnings there may not be any type anoouncement and wait for CC and have several announcements. There is a posssibility that they will show a profit for the 3rd Qtr, but not likely. This will probably depend on whether they have continued to advance purchase equipment…………..STR made another well northeast of the River from KOG area and have staked a well just north of KOG’s # 4 . For many reasons this is becoming the front runner to try and do a deal with KOG. With the recent appreciation of STR’s stock it would make a good medium for the trade, especially in light of their efforts to gain oiler footprint.
October 21st, 2009 at 12:20 pmz has mentioned lng (the stock) from time to time. Cqp is also related
anyways, here is a research note if there are any players here
http://www.scribd.com/doc/20392838/Investing-Notes-9-29-09-Cheniere-Energy-Partners-LP
October 21st, 2009 at 12:23 pmLNG was supposed to flood the the usa but in 2009 we were oversupplied.
Now the thinking is that drilling cutbacks will cut supply by 5 bcf in 2010 thus rising ng prices and our fortunes.
But if the cure for low ng prices was low ng prices, then higher ng prices will attract lng to the us
Its early, but if that plays out lng at 3 might be a buy…
I do not hold lng or cpq
October 21st, 2009 at 12:26 pmmmr at hod 9.69
October 21st, 2009 at 12:27 pmCrude up 2.63 at 81.75.
NG up 13 cents at 5.28.
Bill – that scenario a distinct possibility. Canada volumes likely to be down to U.S. again on a YoY basis by 2Q10 due to negative drilling/production trends in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.
October 21st, 2009 at 12:28 pmWLL approaching $65, performance starting to trail CLR last couple of days. Not sure I get why that is other than CLR has been lagging for some time. WLL gets away from cheap at $75 oil in the mid $70s in my book. Downside risk to oil here is increasing or at least upside near term potential is decreasing. Trading very technical (insert laugh here for Nicky as she’d tell me its all speculators and technicals 24/7 anyway) to which I’d add that that’s even more the case right now, at least on the TA side.
October 21st, 2009 at 12:32 pmRE: WLL
“Company maker” comment. Is it still lurking un-resolved in the background??????
October 21st, 2009 at 12:41 pmFCC =fcx. Dang iphone
October 21st, 2009 at 12:41 pmre 120 – Eli – I have a low grade fever, less cryptic please.
Baylor – Oh, me no follow.
October 21st, 2009 at 12:43 pmMMR-Wilcox objective is a head fake. Real objective is Cretaceous. Now that would be a game changer!
October 21st, 2009 at 12:49 pmBelieve they used those exact words in their last update. Seems about early part of this month around the 55ish level. Am I in error?
October 21st, 2009 at 12:51 pmReef- At this point I think I add to the position if they hit or if they miss at BB Hill for Davy Jones. Probably have to Jan or Feb calls to do that, maybe common is easier. Maybe EXXI is easier. Mulling.
October 21st, 2009 at 12:52 pmOn call back in bit
BEXP topping $11
October 21st, 2009 at 12:54 pmmy gawd BOP…can you tell us any other Bakken plays you don’t especially like???
October 21st, 2009 at 12:54 pmThis BEXP is amazing!!!
in a rare case of shoot first, ask questions later, i just jumped into EXXI. They extended their debt-for-equity swap offer for another three days. But hearing the swap will be done. So, could be a near-term catalyst on Oct 23rd… plus, there is all that deep exploration stuff, of course.
October 21st, 2009 at 12:55 pmTimeline. You know I played options all along the Blackbeard saga. Hosed myself thinking its almost there. Good news when drilling at this depth and pressure extends the timeline dramaticly. A quick TD likely means bad news, so we play long and hope for a difficult last 2,500′. That likely means shows/gas/pressure.
October 21st, 2009 at 12:57 pmRRC earnings tonite and NFX in the morning.
October 21st, 2009 at 12:57 pmWest..ty for the KOG info, really appreciate the updates.
BOP- you are jumping on the first hut, do not sell if Blueberry hill is D&A
October 21st, 2009 at 12:58 pmjivey — i didn’t like it… but i bought it. Just stepped to the curb, tho… Sold the rest of those calls at 1.45. My jaw is on the floor.
This tells me more about how bullish the NY boys are on oil, than it does about how “good” or “bad” BEXP is. And the bulls are snorting!
October 21st, 2009 at 12:58 pmreef — i had a “south seas” and “leaping monkeys” visual, with that “hut.” But i’m guessing you are using a football reference. LOL.
October 21st, 2009 at 1:03 pmAs a general side note — it is very unusual to see debt holders swap into equity… without the POTUS immorally shoving them (can’t exactly say it was “illegal”… what he did with Chrysler and GM…. but it sure felt that way).
Anyway, when it happens, you sit up and take notice. Means debt thinks they will get more as a going concern and that their debt-for-equity will be worth a LOT more than the debt. That said, the debt has rallied from about 40 cents to almost 90 cents since last Feb. So, debt must think there is significant upside left, to make the switch to such an unsecured, subordinated status. Depending on the dilution, these deals can work out very well for the equity… both the existing common and the newly-swapped common holders.
October 21st, 2009 at 1:08 pmbop- Bluberry Hill is a pump fake. The real pass is Davy Jones
October 21st, 2009 at 1:12 pmBOP- i hope you bought before up 12.5%
October 21st, 2009 at 1:13 pmreef — naw. I like to pay up. ha. in at 2.10 just today.
October 21st, 2009 at 1:17 pmreef — that’s what i’m hearing. But you’re closer to the buttle-scut than I am on EXXI… so, pls keep the comments coming. thank you!
October 21st, 2009 at 1:18 pmReef #123: would you please elaborate on the importance of the Cretaceous for the geologically challanged (me) Jim Bob just mentioned it in passing as I remember, but slide 6 clearly shows the D Jones extending to the Cretaceous and slide 16 says targeting “possible” the Cretaceous.
October 21st, 2009 at 1:28 pm2nd question: am I correct that success in the Cretaceous in D Jones is the thing which makes them deepen Blackbeard to the Cretaceous?
Thanks.
I meant slide 14….but slide 6 clearly shows the D Jones extending to the Cretaceous . Proof read impaired.
October 21st, 2009 at 1:30 pmZTRADES: NFX
Added (5) NFX November $50 calls (NFXKJ) for $2.15. Doubles my position there.
Added (10) NFX November $55 calls (NFXKK) for $0.60.
Both done with the stock at 49.50 with earnings out late tonight, call in the morning.
October 21st, 2009 at 1:35 pmProbably could have grabbed those a bit cheaper, all depends on the broad market which is ebbing a bit here.
October 21st, 2009 at 1:37 pmreef — just got an update on the Davy Jones… hearing the well is at 25,800 ft currently, drilling about 10 ft/hr, targeting at least 28,000 ft. That will get them to the top of the Eocene… but that JimBob “will drill until he can’t anymore.” They would like to drill thru (see) as much of the Eocene as they can. So it sounds like TD is at least 2 weeks (or so) away.
The debt-for-equity swap expires on Oct 23rd. Hearing it’s a “done deal.” Will feel a lot better once it is, tho. But that would be the near-term catalyst on the stock. With the debt swap, i guess EXXI will be swimming in cash and in a much better position to develop/defend their position in this play.
October 21st, 2009 at 1:38 pm>drilling about 10 ft/hr
thats’kinda slow isnt?
When do they know they hit something?
MMr/exxi might be like bexp/useg with the lessor known player benefiting more
October 21st, 2009 at 1:58 pmbho cutting executive pay by 90 %.
id feel better if he cut congress and senate pay by the same amount
October 21st, 2009 at 2:00 pmDollar at new lows…
To me it feels like it will not be finding support until 72.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:01 pmBOP- This well will average less than 100′ per day from here to TD. and that tD might be 30K. Given that we are 60- days from TD.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:04 pmCredit Suisse piece looking for their 25 co. E&P cos to have 9% organic production growth with the lower 48 growing 6%. Price targets all below todays prices; group at 1.62X proved (1P) reserves and 1.15X NAV on their “proved plus projects” calculation. FWIW
October 21st, 2009 at 2:06 pmreef — gottcha. currently channel checking, to find out when they think DJ TD might be. But, understand now that you can’t just divide the 2,200 ft from TD by 10 ft/hr, at this point. Any more information you can share on this would be helpful.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:10 pmBEXP — heard at least one NY mtg was packed to overflowing. Also, hearing the book is THREE TIMES oversubscribed.
wow.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:11 pmbill #145 — at least this means that companies will think twice, before asking for “help” from Uncle Obama.
The only way to curb Congress is to send less money their direction and make them stick to a budget. LOL. I’m gonna ask Santa Claus for that for Christmas… and the Tooth Fairy too.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:14 pmThanks BOP. Bet they up the size.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:15 pmBeige book story:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/economy-picking-itself-off-mat-fed-report-finds-2009-10-21
October 21st, 2009 at 2:21 pmS&P / Dow taking a dive.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:22 pmMarket fell apart right after Bill posted 145.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:34 pmI was in a meeting for 30 minutes and I come back to this! haha
October 21st, 2009 at 2:38 pmYep, the pay czar just cut my pay today. My tax dollars, with no oversight whatsoever.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:42 pmWould any of you TA guys please contribute some thoughts on the dollar?
October 21st, 2009 at 2:43 pmThanks
bondbuddha – My 10 cents is that people who have been preaching technical bounces on the dollar have been getting run over the whole way down and expect any bounce to be short and met with fierce shorting once people think they are guaranteed a quick buck by going long ANYTHING else (everything is higher yielding).
October 21st, 2009 at 2:45 pmreading that it was a wells fargo downgrade. not bill.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:46 pm145/155
Leave it to comrade to fxxk up a perfectly nice day
I forgot profits are bad
October 21st, 2009 at 2:47 pmBOP and Reef #145 MMR: as I u/s p.7 of transcript, co. said 2 weeks to 25,000 ft at a rate of 1,000 ft/4-5 days(so they were sandbagging, I guess), tests for a week or so, then 3 weeks for 3,000 ft to 28,000 (429 ft/d)= 8 weeks.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:48 pmSo if they are already at 25,000 ft #143), 60 days to TD at 28,000 ft would be 125 ft/d Reef says in #147. Going to the Cretaceous would add ?? days. Is this correct?
Jat – Hear ya, CNBC saying same re credit concerns. Seems like a market over reaction.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:50 pmWell that sideswiped what was otherwise a perfectly good day.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:53 pmineedabeerthirty
October 21st, 2009 at 3:00 pmIt only took a couple days to go from ineedasleepandmedicationthirty to ineedabeerthirty!
October 21st, 2009 at 3:02 pmI heard Dick Bove downgraded WFC, leading to market swoon.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:06 pmThat’s what happened?
October 21st, 2009 at 3:09 pmThat’s what they are saying, yes.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:24 pmThis is don’t understand and have never understood. I respect Dick Bove. He will take contrary opinions to the street. But he is not faultless. Rember his C call in the spring of 2008 when it was around 20. (By the way the same call made by Kass – LOL).
However for the entire market to sell off on one persons call is stupid. Don’t people think for themselves? I guess not.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:15 pmBSJ – can’t argue with you. I assume he made comments that had negative implications on the consumer.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:20 pmFrom what Maria said, it was company specific to WFC — not being able to continue on current growth and credit issues. Of course this was Maria B paraphrasing Bove so take that for what its worth. As side, I follow WFC.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:30 pmNFX earnings appear to be out. Good or bad?
October 21st, 2009 at 4:43 pmwow. stepped away around 3:20… just got back. The World Changed.
October 21st, 2009 at 5:37 pmBEXP … boy, I cannot win !
October 21st, 2009 at 6:00 pmPackMan… you made some $$ on that BEXP trade, didn’t you?
October 21st, 2009 at 6:46 pmPackMan… i thought you did. Don’t mean to pry. It’s a lot better when everyone makes a little cash.
October 21st, 2009 at 6:51 pmDick Bove didn’t do that to the market; that’s just a convenient excuse. What did it, I don’t know; but long overdue in my book.
They must be running out of hot money suckers and shorts to squeeze ! (not really, still a lot of that going around).
We know real folk are not putting their money into this party now, no matter how much cheerleading CNBC guests do (as their ratings continue to plummet).
October 21st, 2009 at 6:54 pmBOP; its ok & thanks for asking; I only made something like a dime on BEXP when I punted that trade yesterday as I decided to wait out the offering. Silly me. Could have had $1 instead !
So yes, I didn’t lose; but I feel like I lost due to a quick trigger finger.
October 21st, 2009 at 6:56 pmRMD #162… that was some pretty good noodling.
I’ve two different sources on when the DJ well will reach total depth. One says it’s at 25,800 and making about 10 ft/hr with 18lb mud. This source says they would love to get to the Cretaceous, but there will be limits as to how deep this well can do, as there is already 6.75″ pipe set. So, they reckon the well will be drilled as far as they mechanically can, but should be TD’d by the end of November.
The other highly credible source (and by the way, i consider both sources to be “highly credible”) lays out the case that the DJ well won’t TD until the end of this year, due to drilling, then waiting for gas pressure to drop, then drilling, then waiting…. etc, then round-tripping to change bits… repeat.
So, guess we shall see, as they say. Meanwhile, we will keep our ear to the ground and see what scuttlebutt rises to the surface.
Thanks for your help!
October 21st, 2009 at 6:58 pmPackMan — I honestly can’t recall the last time I saw a stock run UP into a 2ndary. So, it was just a lucky trade. But any trade that makes money is considered a good trade.
Maybe you missed a Great Trade, but you made a good trade. Most people didn’t do the trade at all… At least you’re in the game!
Perhpas we sell off for a little bit. But, i think the “surpise” will be that the consumer is not going to stand for 2 dismal Christmases in a row. I think the American Consumer is slowly and quietly coming back. Still believe there’s a New Normal… but I think it won’t be a bad Christmas Season.
2010 I worry about… and Stupid Congress Tricks. But, that seems like a bit of way off from right here, right now.
October 21st, 2009 at 7:04 pmBEXP 16mm shares priced at $10.50
October 21st, 2009 at 7:10 pmBOP … yes, true, keep it in perspective. Had some decent trades on BEXP past few weeks also. Just hate scalping nickels while leaving $$ on the table; but it does beat the alternative.
Consumer; as much as I hate to disagree with you; I just don’t see it. Too much unemployment, foreclosures and credit stress; sales figures (except Apple’s) just do not support that. People will spend money; but I think it will be flattish to last year based on what I see / feel / hear. Goldman employees, maybe they can save Christmas.
And Congress and the Administration is a big wild card, agreed. 2010 is closer than U think !
As for selling off a bit, a lot, or not at all, who knows at this point ? I sure don’t. The computers are in charge for now; we are just along for the ride.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:31 pm10.50 … wow; that’s kind of crazy when you think about it.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:32 pmhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3Ef.OvPTu.M
October 21st, 2009 at 8:42 pmV – I guess when the COP ceo said he didn’t see much M&A activity in the energy patch he meant M&A by the West.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:48 pmYeah… someone mentioned Harvest on here a while ago… might have been Dman or choices. I wonder if anyone picked any up because it’d be a nice pay day.
Relative to last year it’s a pretty nice price for a small integrated.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:58 pmThis was statement that inspired question from BEXP in the Bakken:
The Brad Olson 9-16 #1H was successfully fracture stimulated and while Brigham was drilling out frac plugs the well produced approximately 1,805 barrels of oil and 1.84 MMcf of natural gas, or 2,112 barrels of oil equivalent, from the Bakken formation during a 24 hour period.
October 22nd, 2009 at 2:35 pm