21
Oct

Wednesday Morning Oil Preview, Gas Storage Thoughts + Coal Earnings Notes

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In Today's Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - WLT - good quarter, NBR - not so much
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

  • $10KP II:

    • $34,900
    • 64% Cash
    • The Current Holdings Tab is updated.

 

  • Yesterday's Trades:
    • HK – Added (10) November $30 Calls (HKKF) for $0.85 to start.
    • HK – Added (10) more HK $30 November calls (HKKF) for $0.60 with the stock at $27.40, and the group and broader indexes off on the housing data out this morning.
    • SWN – Added (5) SWN $50 November Calls (doubles the TKQKJ position) with the stock off 2.6% at $48.90. Natural gas is trying to close north of $5 for the first time since August. Earnings come out at the end of the month here.
    • MMR – Added (5) November $7.50 calls (MMRKU) for 1.78 average with the stock jumping up to $9. This is a pure speculation on near term well results (see post for details).


Commodity Watch:

Crude oil fell $0.84 to close at $79.12 yesterday. After the close, the API released bearish looking data and crude reacted with a modest sell off. This morning crude is trading off $1.00+ in early trading.

  • Mexico Watch: Cantarell production declines are said to be stabilizing; Mexico's energy minister says the country can maintain production at 2.5 mm bop "for coming years". I'll believe it when I see it.

"Devastating Oil Crisis" Watch: From the chairman of Hess ~

“The price of $140 per barrel of oil was not an aberration; it was a warning,” said Hess. “The approaches of both consumers and producers are based on hope, but what we need is a sober reality. The reality is that an oil crisis is coming that could prove devastating to future economic growth. Given the long lead times of five to 10 years from oil discovery to production, we need to act now to avert this outcome.” This is the third "Big Oil" head in the last few days to comment on this. 

Natural gas jumped $0.32 (7%) to close the day at $5.16 yesterday. This is the first close north of key psychological resistance at $5 since the move off the bottom began. This morning gas is trading off slightly.

  • Early Read On Natural Gas Storage: Street Looking For 23 Bcf Injection vs ...

    • 71 Bcf last year
    • 58 Bcf 5 year average
    • If we come in at 23 Bcf this would put storage at 3,739 Bcf with 2 to 3 more weeks left in the injection season.
    • Next week's injection will likely be larger given the weather but would still leave us on trend to top out at or below the 3,850 Bcf mark.
    • Many of the most vocal bears (and large natural gas shorts I presume) have been calling for storage to exceed 4 Tcf.
    • Taking a look at injections after this week to the end of the injection season ...
      • Average = 100 Bcf
      • High = 154 Bcf
      • Low = 0 Bcf
    • ...These would, assuming 23 is the correct number for this week, yield end storage of 3,739 Bcf to 3,893 Bcf. We knew we'd be very full and those end storage numbers, at this point should not be that frightening to the market.

Oil Inventory Preview


API Watch:

  • CRUDE: UP 3.847 mm barrels – probably a combo of higher imports and lower throughput.
  • GASOLINE: DOWN 0.587 mm barrels
  • DISTILLATES: DOWN 0.998 mm barrels

 

ZComment: I was looking for an upside surprise in oil and got it with the API numbers. That doesn't mean EIA does the same but it probably means things are aligning that way. I care more about refinery throughput and how far it fell and therefore what part of the build in crude was caused by that slippage than I do about a rally in imports, which I thought to be likely in this week's data. For more on how I look at the numbers as they come out of EIA see the next section.

Stuff We Care About Today

Interpreting The Wednesday EIA Oil Inventory Release

  1. First, start with all the data, this is obtained from the EIA at 10:30 EST in their "Special File"
  2. Know the estimates. The Street generally is looking for three main numbers: Change in Oil, Gasoline, and Distillate Inventories. These are "The Big 3".
  3. Know what the average change or the typical trend of change is for this time of year. This is why I publish and track the data for not only inventories but also, imports, production, and demand. This helps pinpoint divergences to the Street estimates.
  4. While many analysts/shops do a good job of trying to nail the weekly numbers these are just estimates and trendology and averages enter into the equation. At other shops, when the survey guy calls asking for the number he is often met with "what have you got so far?" Lame but true.
  5. The market often reacts in knee jerk fashion to the release of "The Big 3 Numbers".
  6. Many weeks, this knee jerk reaction is wrong. By wrong I mean that crude or gasoline prices will reverse their original move by the end of the day due to factors contributing to the numbers.
  7. This is where the special file comes in handy. The file has a wealth of data. When I tool through it initially I note the following items in addition to "The Big 3"
  • For oil:
    • Refinery Utilization AND Refinery Inputs (they don't always jive)
    • Crude Imports
    • Change in Inventories at Cushing- not that important but the trend here does influence pricing.
  • For Gasoline and Distillates:
    • Production
    • Imports
    • Demand


In order of relevance the numbers go (at least to me) demand, production, then imports. Imports are generally lumpy in nature and have little to do with supply and demand and more to do with logistical concerns like weather or with price. Large dips in imports are often reversed out in upcoming weeks to the net effect of moving in a fairly seasonal way. Basically I look for reasons why the Big 3 came out the way they did; does it make sense from a season context. Sometimes the data line up and you can say "ok then", other times they make little to no sense (it is government data and partially a survey at that after all) and this is when experience comes into play.

This section will be archived on the Dictionary tab.

 

Earnings Watch:

WLT Reports Big Top & Bottom Line Beats; Guides To Bigger Long Term Growth

The 3Q Numbers:

  • Revenue of $278 mm vs $223 mm expected
    • Coking (metallurgical)  coal sales were well above the high end of forecast at 1.9 mm tons, up 35% from the year ago quarter and a record, echoing comments regarding strong demand for met coal from (BTU) on their conference call yesterday.
    • Margins were much higher than expected for coking sales and were just above the high end of the range for steam and industrial coals.
    • This yields the following:
  • EPS of $0.45 vs $0.27 expected

Favorite Quote Watch:

"Our third quarter performance illustrates the strong demand for our high quality coking coal,"

"We continue to see improving market conditions for our product..."

"We expect continued improvement in market conditions for the remainder of 2009," said Patrick. "Moving into 2010, we are seeing increasing demand for premium mid- and low-vol coals from our key product destinations, as well as Asia, with port constraints in Australia continuing to make high-quality coking coals a scarce resource."

Nutshell:

  • Better than expected margins for 4Q guidance
  • Strong volume 4Q guidance
  • Coking volumes are on track for 8 mm tons in 2010 and "up to" 9.5 mm tons in 2012.
  • Estimates for the remainder of 2009 and for 2010 are likely to be dialed up following this release
  • All in all, a very good quarter and outlook

Valuation: Still Cheap Despite The Run:

  • 2009: 27x Est EPS of $2.40
  • 2010: 11x Est EPS of $5.96
  • 2011: 8.2x Est EPS of $7.99

As compared to the coal group:

Conference Call: Today, 10 am EST.

 

NBR Reported A Top Line Miss; Says Results "Bottoming"

The 3Q Numbers: (which I'm pretty sure no one really cares about)

  • Revenue of $803 vs $849 mm expected
  • EPS of $0.18 vs $0.18 expected. (very noisy number)

Interesting Quote Watch:

"We expect this quarter to represent the bottom in our consolidated results for this cycle. This is best illustrated by the bounce we have experienced in our US Lower 48 land drilling operations where we have seen over 20 rigs return to work since the low point in early August. We have also seen modest rate increases on high efficiency rigs in selected markets. In addition, we are receiving an increasing number of inquiries regarding incremental first quarter start-ups.

we already have a 2010 contract backlog which is approximately 20 percent higher than the anticipated full year results for 2009.

Nutshell: Not a great looking quarter but multiple rays of light, watching no action from me for now.

Conference Call: Today, 11 EST

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • (DVN) cut to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
  • (OII) target raised from $60 to $69 at Jefferies

 

188 Responses to “Wednesday Morning Oil Preview, Gas Storage Thoughts + Coal Earnings Notes”

  1. 1
    elijahwc Says:

    Setback for US crackdown on oil speculation

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f29dfaf2-bdd9-11de-9f6a-00144feab49a.html

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Refreshing. Someone actually thinking about the consequences of their actions before actually acting.

  3. 3
    BossmanG Says:

    Morning Z, thanks for finding the EIA piece.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Boss – Could not find so re-wrote. Feel free to ask me more specific questions as that didn’t cover everything.

    Analyst Watch:
    Pritchard ups ATPG target from $21 to $25.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Art Cashin – basically said if we go up it’s bad and if we go down it’s bad. Man is he a stopped clock these days. No disrespect intended and I get him on the precarious state of the recovery but he mixes in TA at times and feels free to abandon it as its gone against him. Has he been a bear since the lows? When things recovery, and they will, earnings leverage to revenue growth will be considerably higher than it would have been even a year ago due to cost cutting.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    Credit Suisse starts U.S. energy MLPs at Overweight.

    LINE still yielding 10.5% and their distribution is likely to be increased slightly over the next 3 years, probably each year. Secured on the down side by 100% hedge position and a long reserve/production ratio that means declines are low and therefore maintenance capex requirement is low. I assume they will pick off some cheap, accretive assets though and they have production upside in some of their properties that could be easily cranked up. Along with their high free cf to payout (coverage ratio) you get secure payouts and the likelihood of increased ones.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Anyone see a news story on SWN, got a ticker bug but don’t have access.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Same ? for MMR

  9. 9
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TechTrader out with a 55/45 SHORT call today. Basically, short the morning rally.

    HeadTrader thinks it’s healthy to back-and-fill for a while longer.

    But here’s the bottom line — The Easy Part of the rally is over. It gets harder from here.

    Like we had in 2003 vs 2004. 2003 climbed a wall of worry (and boy, did it climb!). 2004 was very volatile, mostly down the 1st 1/2 of the year, then up. 2005 was pretty flat, until the 4Q. We didn’t get another good “2003-type” rally until the 2nd half of 2006. Think we are facing that scenario again.

    So, what works? Careful stock picking. Staying nimble. Knowing your story and fundamentals. Watching for pinch-points in the economy (hint: employment isn’t one of them, like it was last time around), and basically doing your homework. Anyone who was long, or got long from March through now made a lot of money. That was the easy part. Don’t look for that to repeat. But doesn’t mean we can’t find stuff that will rally nicely… just it won’t be “across the board.” Well, maybe for a month or two longer, as some people may still try to arrive late to the Rally Party. But 2010 will probably be a pretty tough year. Gotta do your homework, from here on out.

  10. 10
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    More on Kass: Z, your comment on he is usually right but often early. Is that like a prediction today that we should run for the hills, because one day the Yellowstone super volocano is going to explode or someday the sun is going to die. That is not really helpful for living in the present.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Got sent the CS piece on MLPs. Those are pipe, not E&P MLPs they initiated on.

  12. 12
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    MLPs might not be a bad place to sit, with a good chunk of your core cash, through 2010. Maybe someone(s) with expertise in that area (pipeline, infrastructure) could start to keep a running commentary on them. Would help me a lot!

  13. 13
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    E&C might get more interesting here too… just some thoughts.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    BSJ – He himself says he’s usually early. He means by a few weeks to a month or two, not millennia.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    NG up 3 pennies

    Oil off 50 to 70 cents depending on the tick, going to be volatile into EIA at 10:30 EST.

  16. 16
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BEXP should price after the close today.

    z, did you get a chance to run through the roadshow? any thoughts?

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Good numbers out of WLT, market doesn’t care yet. I may bite on a little as per post.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    BOP – could not get it to open.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    NG up 8 cents. Short covering. See comments on tomorrow’s storage number in post.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE:

    WLT – Added (2) November WLT $60 Calls (WLTKL) for $7.80 with the stock at 65.80. Earnings call at 11 EST. I liked the numbers as per comments in the post.

  21. 21
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — BEXP sure seems to want to stay above $10. Pretty astonishing. Would bode well for trading action, post 2ndary, you think? Guess people like the oily story and 700+ drilling locations.

  22. 22
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Option question Z: why did you pick the 60’s on WLT?

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    BOP – re BEXP. Yes.

    BSJ – The stock is normally not a big options trader, has wider spreads, higher strikes looked pretty expensive to me and I was able to split the bid/ask while getting into a .75 delta option that’s mostly intrinsic value. Given the high premiums of those out of the money calls AFTER the release of earnings combined with the failure of the stock to move on the numbers but before the conference call it seemed like the best move.

  24. 24
    kyleandy Says:

    z – do u ever consider selling out of the money calls against your in the money calls. just looked at WLT and they do look expensive

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    Kyle – ahhh. You’ve stumbled upon what will be new with the 10KP III. For the most part I’m a KISS trader. But yeah, that one’s pretty obviously a good choice for cost reduction.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    HK – Interesting action, people expecting that beat? People expecting that their can’t be a deal this time? Time will tell.

  27. 27
    reefguy Says:

    bn- no new news on MMR or SWN

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    BOP – I’m stunned by the action in BEXP. Would have thought down between 5 and 10% on the deal announcement with a 2 to 4 week hangover. Certainly not flat. Will try to get that presentation open after EIA and the WLT call.

    Hey, WLT waking up with the market.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Reef – Much obliged.

    By the way, that gas strip is looking better these days.

  30. 30
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BEXP is selling itself as the most leveraged to the Bakken/3FS + other mysterious — but oily — horizons that might appear in the WB.

  31. 31
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ha! or maybe — post Galleon — it’s just funds covering the shares they shorted into the 2nday….

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    BOP – Re 30. Is that on a total company reserves vs potential Bakken reserves basis? They’re obviously not counting the single digit midget crowd.

  33. 33
    elijahwc Says:

    MMR = WOW. On a related note MMR partner EXXI running into difficulty getting debt exchange done. Could get interesting.

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Anybody got a handle on why the market is suddenly back in happy-happy-joy-joy territory?

    Eli – check your email.

    Eli – does EXXI have converts?

  35. 35
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — re 32 yeah. I think it was. Didn’t blow up that slide (and it was tiny, on my screen). I think they had KOG in there too… and i can’t think of any company who’s future is more tied to the Bakken/3FS than KOG. So, i discounted that slide. When you go thru the presentation later today, perhaps you can take a closer look.

    As i said, i tend to discount those type of slides as they cherry-pick the data to fit their argument.

  36. 36
    elijahwc Says:

    Correction on EXXI as 92% have been tendered. I guess people find 16 % attractive after all.

  37. 37
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #34 one thing, Wells Fargo CFO talking about paying back the TARP.

    HeadTrader thinking maybe people just buying the better EPS instead of selling, for a change.

    i.e. no real reason.

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    Boss, if you load this link into another tab on your browser you can get the data as it comes out.

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/txt/wpsr.txt

    Much preferable to having Epperson on CNBC scream the big 3 at you and little else of value from the pit.

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    Looks like a breakout on the MMR chart to my technical eye. Decent volume for the time of day.

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    EIA in 10 minutes, stocks backing off a little in front of that as usual.

  41. 41
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Z, I think WLT should be given a higher multiple (per you coal stocks charts), than your typical thermal coal company. Coking coal is much more valuable because it is rarer. WLT is almost 100% a coking coal company.

    Since I think Kass is a pompous windbag with illusions of grandure, I guess we won’t have to have are DNA tested for relativness as per the other day.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    EIA Oil Inventory Report:
    Crude at time of report 78.75, down 38 cents

    Crude up 1.3 mm barrels
    Gasoline down 2.3 mm barrels
    Distillates down 0.8 mm barrels

    Crude imports : 9 mm bopd , healthy increase back to mid range
    Gasoline demand: fell back off to 8.95 mm bpd, on seasonal trend
    Distillate demand: eased to 3.487, not great, not great at all.

    ….

  43. 43
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BSJ — it’s not Kass… it’s his gnomes. They have gigantic egos!

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    BSJ – I think he’s pompous as well but there are smart yet pompous people.

    More EIA

    Correction on imports: eased to 8.7 mm bopd, sets up a big build next week. Surprising low here. Not going to stay here.

  45. 45
    Dman Says:

    Every commodity on my screen went green on the numbers. Stocks not quite as impressed.

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    More EIA

    Oil liking the numbers, though not as much as gasoline is. Gasoline should not be all that happy with these numbers. We went from record highs for the week last report to the lows for the week….which means EIA is doing a little balancing to get things squared away. Energy taking the report in a mutedly positive way. I don’t see any reason for me to add to anything on this data nor to jump ship. I’d bet next Wednesday we get a big build in crude stocks.

  47. 47
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Question on imports, during the extreme contango in oil, alot of oil was stuck on tankers as storage. Since the contango has lessen, that oil is coming ashore. Does anyone know how many tankers are still being used in that storage capacity?

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    BSJ – I don’t know that number, I hear it is large, especially for heavy crudes. It is also large for distillate products. But as to the actual size everyone seems to be guessing. FRO might have a handle on that or Bill might from his readings.

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    BOP with BEXP it $10.35, they could price in the hole at $10 and I’d bet would have good follow on demand. Checking on that book build now.

  50. 50
    BossmanG Says:

    Z,
    Could you write about how you analyze natural gas numbers?

  51. 51
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — BEXP, thinking the same thing. Jefferies is running the book… would LOVE to hear any color. But, judging from the stock action, thinking people who put in won’t get full allocation.

    The stock action is creating a giant sucking sound… of institutionals being drawn in. Nice to see.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Boss – but then you wouldn’t need me.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    BOP – checking. Would very much like to see them all get 75 to 80% allocations. I’ve been doing this a pretty long time and these post secondary announcement pops, at least in energy, are what we call rare. They are the underwriter’s, company’s, salesman’s, and analyst’s wet dream.

  54. 54
    BossmanG Says:

    hahaah I don’t think I could replace your experience/knowledge…so much to learn, so little time

  55. 55
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    BOP: easy. Lets see, a ton of acerage in the hottest oil play in the US. Plus last wells show that maybe BEXP has “broken the code”.

  56. 56
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — I know they are rare… that is what makes watching BEXP here so very interesting. It’s like seeing a Quetzal in the wild.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Boss – ok, then its basically, estimated production plus imports less estimated demand. I used to run an overly complex model on it when I was the North American natural gas demand analyst for Jefferies but I have since simplified my procedures. I’m not a pipe flow model guy although that route has its merits, I just don’t have the staff for it.

    WLT call in 5

  58. 58
    bill Says:

    tph had comments on run up from july lows

    oil did better than ng

    pxp underperformed the bunch on the oil side

    swn chk and hk on the ng side

    I think pxp has some catch up to do

    One of the most bullish factors is reserves that they lost due to prices all come back and since they wrote down the asset dda should be lower and profits higher. They are unhedged to the upside on oil and ng in 2010

  59. 59
    bill Says:

    Oh, one other thing

    whats good for mmr is also good for partners exxi and pxp

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    I’m an idiot. WLT call has been on for 55 minutes. Ugh.

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Bill – thank you.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Nuts. Other than them saying thanks for listening I missed that entire call. Will circle back in an hour for the replay.

  63. 63
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — #57… your PAST LIFE revealed!! You must still be a tad feverish…

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    BOP – Just a part of it. Tit for tat.

  65. 65
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I think the PXP Nov30s at 2.00 would be a nice addition… missed it this morning. But, in this mrkt, patience is often rewarded.

    Unless you thought you would get BEXP at $9.00. That might take a bit longer…

  66. 66
    elijahwc Says:

    Z my server and email system are doing the Hotel California thing but the answer to your earlier question is yes.

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    Reef – would you not suspect that Moffett will come with good news faster than he would with no news or bad news?

    Stocks paying more attention to the gyrations of the S&P than to oil. NG back to even on the day. Stocks look bored.

    Hearing SWN to get mention in a popular financial paper.

    Admin tells me still no Bio for BOP.

  68. 68
    Jerome Blank Says:

    next PXP resistance at $32-$33, this would be a third retest since June…the more times resistance is tested the greater the probability of a break

  69. 69
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Jerome — have I told you lately, how great it is to have you around? Thank you.

  70. 70
    bill Says:

    saw this on apc

    ANADARKO PETROLEUM (APC) ACCUMULATE
    Goes Two for Two in Big Wildcats this Week February 4, 2009

    APC announced its second deep water Gulf of Mexico discovery this week. The Shenandoah
    well in Walker Ridge encountered net pay sands approaching 300 feet of thickness in the lower
    tertiary horizon—in the Wilcox sands. For us, the amount of pay sand (300 feet) encountered could
    indicate a 500 million barrel size discovery.

    Initial data indicates the discovery has reservoir sands that are of much higher quality in terms
    of porosity and permeability than the industry has seen. APC’s explorationists have been trying to
    distinguish themselves on this, and on this attempt, they apparently have had success.

    THE SHENANDOAH WELL
    The Shenandoah well in Walker Ridge encountered net pay sands approaching 300 feet of
    thickness in the lower tertiary horizon—in the Wilcox sands. We estimate that the gross potential
    of Gulf of Mexico low-tertiary prospects to range between 100 million to 500 million barrels
    plus. This well was drilled in 5,750 feet of water to a total depth was about 30,000 feet.
    Initial data indicates the discovery has reservoir sands that are of much higher quality in terms of
    porosity and permeability than the industry has seen. APC’s explorationists have been trying to
    distinguish themselves on this, and on this attempt, they apparently have had success. (This was
    a point they articulated on yesterday’s conference call when probed about what differentiated
    their program versus competitors) Sources have indicated to us extremely good porosity and
    permeability numbers given the burial depth and stress placed on the reservoir.

    There have now been about six to seven lower tertiary discoveries made by the industry since
    2002. The discoveries in this play have been led by BP (Not Rated) and Devon Energy
    (Accum). Prior to today’s announcement, APC participated (20% interest) in the largest
    discovery made by industry to date – Kaskida, discovered in 2006. Another discovery was Jack,
    found in 2004, which APC did not have ownership in, but the company did purchase important
    well flow test results (Jack is the only lower tertiary well ever flow tested) and received other
    key data from that discovery.

    To frame out Anadarko’s Shenandoah discovery, Kaskida had 800 feet of pay sand and is
    estimated to contain 2 billion plus barrels of reserves, and Jack, which had 350 feet of pay sand,
    is estimated to contain a billion barrels. By our estimates, the amount of pay sand (300 feet of
    thickness) encountered in Shenandoah could indicate a 500 million barrel size discovery.
    Therefore, APC, with a 30%, working interest would have 150 million barrels net to its interest.

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    Hear ya Bill, MMR after same deep tertiary as Kaskida with its shallow water, ultra deep program. Shallow water targets of significant size are going to be a lot cheaper to drill in 10 to 100 feet of water than they are out in Walker Ridge in 7,000 feet of water (where the day rate on the rig will be in the $500 to $600K per day range). Also, MMR is sidetracking from existing well bores now, so the first 10 to 15,000 feet go kind of quick, lol.

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    Which brings to mind the idea that if MMR, which has 15 more of these deep prospects worked up, makes this work, they have a target on their heads.

  73. 73
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #69, thanks BOP, I’m one of group waiting for that pullback to $9 in BEXP, I feel like the “Maytag repair man” waiting for a BEXP retrace…looks like BEXP trying for a third test of the daily ascending triangle at $11…at this point I would consider buying stock at the 20 day SMA which from here is $9.50, also right above daily trendline support, but it looks like it might run without me…

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    WLT – listening to replay now.

  75. 75
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Jerome — talking to some other buy-siders, they think BEXP is pretty fully price here. ‘Course, they said that yesterday… so, obviously there are buyers on the other side of that remark.

    But, it’s just shocking to see a stock behave like this, looking in the jaws of a 2ndary. Never would have guessed this. Tells me, bulls are snorting about the direction of oil prices.

  76. 76
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    I see all this bullish talk on MMR, but I don’t see anybody really doing any buying of the stock or options. In my view, there are good spec and bloody stupid spec, and this is a good spec.

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    BSJ – I bought a little yesterday, waiting on news to buy more.

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    Crude trading 80.10

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    Crude ripping higher, probably not a healthy thing, too far too fast in my book. Fast Money crew will be screaming for 84.

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    BOP – re BEXP – still no feedback on the book. Will keep bugging people. I’m a little dubious of this run, wondering if management doesn’t upsize the deal.

  81. 81
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    The dog in the night that didn’t bark observations: BEXP, it should have gone down but it hasn’t. WLT, it should have gone up but hasn’t.

  82. 82
    reefguy Says:

    MMR, EXXI- back on track and parallel. Moffett probably waiting on OSU/UT outcome…

  83. 83
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — the BEXP run had the feel of short-covering to it. There’s not a lot short, only 3.74mm as per last report. Still… a lot of ground covered, ahead of pricing this afternoon.

    But, hey. It BEXP is “fully-valued” here, then the offering isn’t all that “dilutive,” is it? LOL.

  84. 84
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Has anyone noticed, how often the Fast Money crew have switched jobs? And it is usually some stupid job like investment strategist at one of the 10 million hedge funds.

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    WLT – listening to call now, nothing negative so far, all very positive on the demand side. I may add more if it stays down and trades lower tomorrow.

    Reef – Hope it doesn’t depend on the outcome, Colt’s throwing too many picks these days.

    BSJ = LOL.

  86. 86
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Z, WLT is dropping like a stone. What does the market don’t like?

  87. 87
    Jerome Blank Says:

    ATPG goes back on a P&F buy signal on a print of $23, I have the previous recent high at $22.99 on 9/22/09, someone is watching this level…

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    BSJ – Don’t know yet. It picked a direction and there is fear selling piling on. Listening to the analysts questions and responses to the quarter all pretty positive so if its down at the end of the day I would imagine their notes tomorrow will be all the more glowing but still listening to the replay.

  89. 89
    bill Says:

    bexp amazes at 10.59

    climbs into an offering

    mcf, no debt, no costs..7 people, no ng hedges, production growing 8 bcf for q3 and q4 at 5 per mcf 40 m in revenue would equal 30 m in cash flow about 2 bucks per share Pretax 8 per year, stock trading at less than 7 times

    every 1 dollar in ng prices = 2 bucks per share

    so at 6 ng, its trading at 5 times cash flow

    pure way to play rebound in ng

  90. 90
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    For what its worth dept: I just bought some Nov 70’s of WLT. I am kind of leary of this because I don’t like when stocks should do one thing but don’t.

  91. 91
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    MCF is the safest way to play nat gas. It is really a terrific company.

  92. 92
    cargocult Says:

    The increased demand for met coal benefits drybulk. Is this DSX?

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    WLT – in “weak gets weaker” mode. People see other stuff working, why bother trying to figure out why its not running, looking at the chart’s run, they sell. Still not hearing anything negative. This looks like profit taking. Don’t know where it settles out but would guess if the market goes red the loss on the day doubles. If market gain doubles this comes back to somewhere just short of even. My time frame is longer so I really am not overly concerned. May add more if it goes into a real downward spike. Still listening.

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    Energy largely asleep to the move in oil. Probably wakes up if oil closes up here at 2:30 EST and the broad market hangs in there.

  95. 95
    Jerome Blank Says:

    I wonder if ATPG still has enough energy to break a new buy signal…the current rally off the Oct retracement back to the $16 level has been on decreasing average vol…higher prices on decreasing vol is generally something to keep an eye on…I’m going to be watchful for a lower high on the daily chart

  96. 96
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    it’s the Noon Swoon…

  97. 97
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    On msn there is an article DR OZ 25 health tips: one of the tips menetions if a guy in his 50’s can have sex 700 times a year would make him look and feel years younger. Lets see that is having sex 2 time a day, everyday of the year. I guess besides feelling and looking younger, he could also be looking for work into some “off market videos”.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    Cargo – they move coal, noy sure if its coking coal or not, probably.

  99. 99
    West Says:

    Looks like KOG is going to have two good wells east of the River.

  100. 100
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    west — any additional color there? The TeddyBearCam has been silent, recently.

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    Hey West, good to hear.

    WLT Call Wrap

    Positive stuff as per the pr. Customers accelerating orders. Demand remains strong.

    When you look at the coking market:
    2008: 240 mm tons (the entire seaborne market)
    2009: 210 mm tons
    The 30 mm ton drop was the low quality stuff

    For WLT:
    2008: 5.8 mm tons
    2009: 6.4 mm tons
    So they increased shipped volumes during the worst contraction in steel production in our lifetimes. Reason = quality of product.
    2010: 8 mm tons.
    They could do 8.4 mm tons if you include purchased product they have yet to sell. This is a higher ash product so they have to blend it. Since the market is not liking the higher ash product right now, they are sitting on it. Again, 8 mm in 2010 vs 6.4 mm in 2009. Analysts all pleased about this level.

    By 2012 level of 9.5 mm in the press release was 0.5 mm tons higher than analyst crowd thought they could do so that’s upside to the long range.

    The one negative which should be well known by now. China’s inventories have increased for both met coal and steel. They are still short coal relative to their historic inventories. They sounded very doubtful that China would suddenly stop or drastically reduce met coal imports.

    Analyst after analyst congratulating them on the quarter. This looks like a little bit of profit taking. Again, I’m likely to wait a day or two before doing anything more here.

  102. 102
    RMD Says:

    Bill’s # 70 is just what MMR is saying about their hopes for the Wilcox. It is nice to see APC agreed in 2/09!
    VNR’s distribution announcement, conviently calculating current yield (10.6%) for the mathamatically challanged, got my att’n as my target for LINE (10.2% now) had been 10%. I think 10% is also the St.’s average yield target. So the question becomes does the E&P MLP group head to a lower yield plateau from here? Taking my clue from BOP’s Xasset class strategist, I think he is saying no because spreads have returned to something-like logical, credit mkts are very open, and the mkts need time to digest this move and before finding a reason to move to a new lower yield level. This is really a question I am pondering so comments/thoughts are welcome.
    KOG observation: at $2.80 it has retraced 50% of it’s move from $5.40 to $.20. Stocks often stall after 50% retracements FWIW.

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    RMD – my thought is that the low quality MLPs outperform for a bit. They have been doing this already, even the flotsam names that have suspended their distributions. Goes to this market’s increased appetite for risk. 6 months ago 80% debt to cap was a no-no. Now its an opportunity. Me? I’ll stay with what I know and get paid. Let the BBEP’s of the world run without me.

    Crude > $81. The numbers really weren’t that good. Its on a mission to $84 according to all the TA folks. Will see if I can find Nicky.

  104. 104
    zman Says:

    From the compliance department challenged regarding NE’s pending earnings:

    Z: Just want to go on record before numbers are released. Rev 906 op cost 410 ibt 500 net 401 eps 1.53. Will listen for on CC: Switz effect. Update on newbuilds. Profit margins and tender trends. S

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    WLT back to even.

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    From Nicky:

    Hi Z

    Will try and come on the site but meantime its all going to plan! We are in v up on everything and v down on dollar which looks close to being done. Not sure whether metals are going to make a new high or whether the top is in for them and this is a wave ii. Oil could be the thing that tanks the broader market if this carries on. I have resistance at 83 and then obvious as we know is 85 – 86 then 91.

    Broader market still looking at 1113 – 1121 to top this move but may only manage 1107 – 9.

    N

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    BEXP @ 10.97

  108. 108
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BEXP …. ummmm. Wow. Somebody just lifted most of the calls i bought yesterday at 75c for 1.45. Wow. Must be headed a lot higher. LOL.

  109. 109
    baylor3217 Says:

    Thoughts on FCC calls into earnings?

  110. 110
    zman Says:

    What’s FCC?

    Hearing BEXP book building “nicely”

  111. 111
    kyleandy Says:

    z – are those NE guesstimates above or below what’s forecast?

  112. 112
    bondbuddha Says:

    Any comments on the dollar?

    Tks,
    BB

  113. 113
    zman Says:

    NFX at $50. Slow steady pace.

    Dollar rolled over a couple of hours ago, being sited as most of the reason for the move in crude. These are new lows for this breakdown.

    Kyle: Those are in line.

  114. 114
    West Says:

    Looks like both wells have been fraced and are being hooked up to production tanks. Large gas flare which probably associated with flow back from frac. This area east of the river is closer to MRO existing gas lines, so if they don’t do a package deal for the entire prospect, they could have this hooked up in a realatively short time. This will probably give them the information that they need to do a gas deal to the south to an existing plant where they would also get a premium for strippable liquids. Since we are close to earnings there may not be any type anoouncement and wait for CC and have several announcements. There is a posssibility that they will show a profit for the 3rd Qtr, but not likely. This will probably depend on whether they have continued to advance purchase equipment…………..STR made another well northeast of the River from KOG area and have staked a well just north of KOG’s # 4 . For many reasons this is becoming the front runner to try and do a deal with KOG. With the recent appreciation of STR’s stock it would make a good medium for the trade, especially in light of their efforts to gain oiler footprint.

  115. 115
    bill Says:

    z has mentioned lng (the stock) from time to time. Cqp is also related

    anyways, here is a research note if there are any players here

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/20392838/Investing-Notes-9-29-09-Cheniere-Energy-Partners-LP

  116. 116
    bill Says:

    LNG was supposed to flood the the usa but in 2009 we were oversupplied.

    Now the thinking is that drilling cutbacks will cut supply by 5 bcf in 2010 thus rising ng prices and our fortunes.

    But if the cure for low ng prices was low ng prices, then higher ng prices will attract lng to the us

    Its early, but if that plays out lng at 3 might be a buy…

    I do not hold lng or cpq

  117. 117
    bill Says:

    mmr at hod 9.69

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    Crude up 2.63 at 81.75.
    NG up 13 cents at 5.28.

    Bill – that scenario a distinct possibility. Canada volumes likely to be down to U.S. again on a YoY basis by 2Q10 due to negative drilling/production trends in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    WLL approaching $65, performance starting to trail CLR last couple of days. Not sure I get why that is other than CLR has been lagging for some time. WLL gets away from cheap at $75 oil in the mid $70s in my book. Downside risk to oil here is increasing or at least upside near term potential is decreasing. Trading very technical (insert laugh here for Nicky as she’d tell me its all speculators and technicals 24/7 anyway) to which I’d add that that’s even more the case right now, at least on the TA side.

  120. 120
    elijahwc Says:

    RE: WLL

    “Company maker” comment. Is it still lurking un-resolved in the background??????

  121. 121
    baylor3217 Says:

    FCC =fcx. Dang iphone

  122. 122
    zman Says:

    re 120 – Eli – I have a low grade fever, less cryptic please.

    Baylor – Oh, me no follow.

  123. 123
    reefguy Says:

    MMR-Wilcox objective is a head fake. Real objective is Cretaceous. Now that would be a game changer!

  124. 124
    elijahwc Says:

    Believe they used those exact words in their last update. Seems about early part of this month around the 55ish level. Am I in error?

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    Reef- At this point I think I add to the position if they hit or if they miss at BB Hill for Davy Jones. Probably have to Jan or Feb calls to do that, maybe common is easier. Maybe EXXI is easier. Mulling.

  126. 126
    zman Says:

    On call back in bit

    BEXP topping $11

  127. 127
    jiveyjr Says:

    my gawd BOP…can you tell us any other Bakken plays you don’t especially like???
    This BEXP is amazing!!!

  128. 128
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    in a rare case of shoot first, ask questions later, i just jumped into EXXI. They extended their debt-for-equity swap offer for another three days. But hearing the swap will be done. So, could be a near-term catalyst on Oct 23rd… plus, there is all that deep exploration stuff, of course.

  129. 129
    reefguy Says:

    Timeline. You know I played options all along the Blackbeard saga. Hosed myself thinking its almost there. Good news when drilling at this depth and pressure extends the timeline dramaticly. A quick TD likely means bad news, so we play long and hope for a difficult last 2,500′. That likely means shows/gas/pressure.

  130. 130
    john11 Says:

    RRC earnings tonite and NFX in the morning.
    West..ty for the KOG info, really appreciate the updates.

  131. 131
    reefguy Says:

    BOP- you are jumping on the first hut, do not sell if Blueberry hill is D&A

  132. 132
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jivey — i didn’t like it… but i bought it. Just stepped to the curb, tho… Sold the rest of those calls at 1.45. My jaw is on the floor.

    This tells me more about how bullish the NY boys are on oil, than it does about how “good” or “bad” BEXP is. And the bulls are snorting!

  133. 133
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    reef — i had a “south seas” and “leaping monkeys” visual, with that “hut.” But i’m guessing you are using a football reference. LOL.

  134. 134
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    As a general side note — it is very unusual to see debt holders swap into equity… without the POTUS immorally shoving them (can’t exactly say it was “illegal”… what he did with Chrysler and GM…. but it sure felt that way).

    Anyway, when it happens, you sit up and take notice. Means debt thinks they will get more as a going concern and that their debt-for-equity will be worth a LOT more than the debt. That said, the debt has rallied from about 40 cents to almost 90 cents since last Feb. So, debt must think there is significant upside left, to make the switch to such an unsecured, subordinated status. Depending on the dilution, these deals can work out very well for the equity… both the existing common and the newly-swapped common holders.

  135. 135
    reefguy Says:

    bop- Bluberry Hill is a pump fake. The real pass is Davy Jones

  136. 136
    reefguy Says:

    BOP- i hope you bought before up 12.5%

  137. 137
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    reef — naw. I like to pay up. ha. in at 2.10 just today.

  138. 138
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    reef — that’s what i’m hearing. But you’re closer to the buttle-scut than I am on EXXI… so, pls keep the comments coming. thank you!

  139. 139
    RMD Says:

    Reef #123: would you please elaborate on the importance of the Cretaceous for the geologically challanged (me) Jim Bob just mentioned it in passing as I remember, but slide 6 clearly shows the D Jones extending to the Cretaceous and slide 16 says targeting “possible” the Cretaceous.
    2nd question: am I correct that success in the Cretaceous in D Jones is the thing which makes them deepen Blackbeard to the Cretaceous?
    Thanks.

  140. 140
    RMD Says:

    I meant slide 14….but slide 6 clearly shows the D Jones extending to the Cretaceous . Proof read impaired.

  141. 141
    zman Says:

    ZTRADES: NFX

    Added (5) NFX November $50 calls (NFXKJ) for $2.15. Doubles my position there.

    Added (10) NFX November $55 calls (NFXKK) for $0.60.

    Both done with the stock at 49.50 with earnings out late tonight, call in the morning.

  142. 142
    zman Says:

    Probably could have grabbed those a bit cheaper, all depends on the broad market which is ebbing a bit here.

  143. 143
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    reef — just got an update on the Davy Jones… hearing the well is at 25,800 ft currently, drilling about 10 ft/hr, targeting at least 28,000 ft. That will get them to the top of the Eocene… but that JimBob “will drill until he can’t anymore.” They would like to drill thru (see) as much of the Eocene as they can. So it sounds like TD is at least 2 weeks (or so) away.

    The debt-for-equity swap expires on Oct 23rd. Hearing it’s a “done deal.” Will feel a lot better once it is, tho. But that would be the near-term catalyst on the stock. With the debt swap, i guess EXXI will be swimming in cash and in a much better position to develop/defend their position in this play.

  144. 144
    bill Says:

    >drilling about 10 ft/hr

    thats’kinda slow isnt?

    When do they know they hit something?

    MMr/exxi might be like bexp/useg with the lessor known player benefiting more

  145. 145
    bill Says:

    bho cutting executive pay by 90 %.

    id feel better if he cut congress and senate pay by the same amount

  146. 146
    VTZ Says:

    Dollar at new lows…

    To me it feels like it will not be finding support until 72.

  147. 147
    reefguy Says:

    BOP- This well will average less than 100′ per day from here to TD. and that tD might be 30K. Given that we are 60- days from TD.

  148. 148
    RMD Says:

    Credit Suisse piece looking for their 25 co. E&P cos to have 9% organic production growth with the lower 48 growing 6%. Price targets all below todays prices; group at 1.62X proved (1P) reserves and 1.15X NAV on their “proved plus projects” calculation. FWIW

  149. 149
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    reef — gottcha. currently channel checking, to find out when they think DJ TD might be. But, understand now that you can’t just divide the 2,200 ft from TD by 10 ft/hr, at this point. Any more information you can share on this would be helpful.

  150. 150
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BEXP — heard at least one NY mtg was packed to overflowing. Also, hearing the book is THREE TIMES oversubscribed.

    wow.

  151. 151
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    bill #145 — at least this means that companies will think twice, before asking for “help” from Uncle Obama.

    The only way to curb Congress is to send less money their direction and make them stick to a budget. LOL. I’m gonna ask Santa Claus for that for Christmas… and the Tooth Fairy too.

  152. 152
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP. Bet they up the size.

  153. 153
    zman Says:

    Beige book story:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/economy-picking-itself-off-mat-fed-report-finds-2009-10-21

  154. 154
    zman Says:

    S&P / Dow taking a dive.

  155. 155
    zman Says:

    Market fell apart right after Bill posted 145.

  156. 156
    VTZ Says:

    I was in a meeting for 30 minutes and I come back to this! haha

  157. 157
    zman Says:

    Yep, the pay czar just cut my pay today. My tax dollars, with no oversight whatsoever.

  158. 158
    bondbuddha Says:

    Would any of you TA guys please contribute some thoughts on the dollar?
    Thanks

  159. 159
    VTZ Says:

    bondbuddha – My 10 cents is that people who have been preaching technical bounces on the dollar have been getting run over the whole way down and expect any bounce to be short and met with fierce shorting once people think they are guaranteed a quick buck by going long ANYTHING else (everything is higher yielding).

  160. 160
    jat Says:

    reading that it was a wells fargo downgrade. not bill.

  161. 161
    bill Says:

    145/155

    Leave it to comrade to fxxk up a perfectly nice day

    I forgot profits are bad

  162. 162
    RMD Says:

    BOP and Reef #145 MMR: as I u/s p.7 of transcript, co. said 2 weeks to 25,000 ft at a rate of 1,000 ft/4-5 days(so they were sandbagging, I guess), tests for a week or so, then 3 weeks for 3,000 ft to 28,000 (429 ft/d)= 8 weeks.
    So if they are already at 25,000 ft #143), 60 days to TD at 28,000 ft would be 125 ft/d Reef says in #147. Going to the Cretaceous would add ?? days. Is this correct?

  163. 163
    zman Says:

    Jat – Hear ya, CNBC saying same re credit concerns. Seems like a market over reaction.

  164. 164
    zman Says:

    Well that sideswiped what was otherwise a perfectly good day.

  165. 165
    zman Says:

    ineedabeerthirty

  166. 166
    VTZ Says:

    It only took a couple days to go from ineedasleepandmedicationthirty to ineedabeerthirty!

  167. 167
    RMD Says:

    I heard Dick Bove downgraded WFC, leading to market swoon.

  168. 168
    ram Says:

    That’s what happened?

  169. 169
    zman Says:

    That’s what they are saying, yes.

  170. 170
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    This is don’t understand and have never understood. I respect Dick Bove. He will take contrary opinions to the street. But he is not faultless. Rember his C call in the spring of 2008 when it was around 20. (By the way the same call made by Kass – LOL).

    However for the entire market to sell off on one persons call is stupid. Don’t people think for themselves? I guess not.

  171. 171
    zman Says:

    BSJ – can’t argue with you. I assume he made comments that had negative implications on the consumer.

  172. 172
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    From what Maria said, it was company specific to WFC — not being able to continue on current growth and credit issues. Of course this was Maria B paraphrasing Bove so take that for what its worth. As side, I follow WFC.

  173. 173
    ram Says:

    NFX earnings appear to be out. Good or bad?

  174. 174
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    wow. stepped away around 3:20… just got back. The World Changed.

  175. 175
    PackMan Says:

    BEXP … boy, I cannot win !

  176. 176
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PackMan… you made some $$ on that BEXP trade, didn’t you?

  177. 177
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PackMan… i thought you did. Don’t mean to pry. It’s a lot better when everyone makes a little cash.

  178. 178
    PackMan Says:

    Dick Bove didn’t do that to the market; that’s just a convenient excuse. What did it, I don’t know; but long overdue in my book.

    They must be running out of hot money suckers and shorts to squeeze ! (not really, still a lot of that going around).

    We know real folk are not putting their money into this party now, no matter how much cheerleading CNBC guests do (as their ratings continue to plummet).

  179. 179
    PackMan Says:

    BOP; its ok & thanks for asking; I only made something like a dime on BEXP when I punted that trade yesterday as I decided to wait out the offering. Silly me. Could have had $1 instead !

    So yes, I didn’t lose; but I feel like I lost due to a quick trigger finger.

  180. 180
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    RMD #162… that was some pretty good noodling.

    I’ve two different sources on when the DJ well will reach total depth. One says it’s at 25,800 and making about 10 ft/hr with 18lb mud. This source says they would love to get to the Cretaceous, but there will be limits as to how deep this well can do, as there is already 6.75″ pipe set. So, they reckon the well will be drilled as far as they mechanically can, but should be TD’d by the end of November.

    The other highly credible source (and by the way, i consider both sources to be “highly credible”) lays out the case that the DJ well won’t TD until the end of this year, due to drilling, then waiting for gas pressure to drop, then drilling, then waiting…. etc, then round-tripping to change bits… repeat.

    So, guess we shall see, as they say. Meanwhile, we will keep our ear to the ground and see what scuttlebutt rises to the surface.

    Thanks for your help!

  181. 181
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PackMan — I honestly can’t recall the last time I saw a stock run UP into a 2ndary. So, it was just a lucky trade. But any trade that makes money is considered a good trade.

    Maybe you missed a Great Trade, but you made a good trade. Most people didn’t do the trade at all… At least you’re in the game!

    Perhpas we sell off for a little bit. But, i think the “surpise” will be that the consumer is not going to stand for 2 dismal Christmases in a row. I think the American Consumer is slowly and quietly coming back. Still believe there’s a New Normal… but I think it won’t be a bad Christmas Season.

    2010 I worry about… and Stupid Congress Tricks. But, that seems like a bit of way off from right here, right now.

  182. 182
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BEXP 16mm shares priced at $10.50

  183. 183
    PackMan Says:

    BOP … yes, true, keep it in perspective. Had some decent trades on BEXP past few weeks also. Just hate scalping nickels while leaving $$ on the table; but it does beat the alternative.

    Consumer; as much as I hate to disagree with you; I just don’t see it. Too much unemployment, foreclosures and credit stress; sales figures (except Apple’s) just do not support that. People will spend money; but I think it will be flattish to last year based on what I see / feel / hear. Goldman employees, maybe they can save Christmas.

    And Congress and the Administration is a big wild card, agreed. 2010 is closer than U think !

    As for selling off a bit, a lot, or not at all, who knows at this point ? I sure don’t. The computers are in charge for now; we are just along for the ride.

  184. 184
    PackMan Says:

    10.50 … wow; that’s kind of crazy when you think about it.

  185. 185
    VTZ Says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3Ef.OvPTu.M

  186. 186
    zman Says:

    V – I guess when the COP ceo said he didn’t see much M&A activity in the energy patch he meant M&A by the West.

  187. 187
    VTZ Says:

    Yeah… someone mentioned Harvest on here a while ago… might have been Dman or choices. I wonder if anyone picked any up because it’d be a nice pay day.

    Relative to last year it’s a pretty nice price for a small integrated.

  188. 188
    zman Says:

    This was statement that inspired question from BEXP in the Bakken:

    The Brad Olson 9-16 #1H was successfully fracture stimulated and while Brigham was drilling out frac plugs the well produced approximately 1,805 barrels of oil and 1.84 MMcf of natural gas, or 2,112 barrels of oil equivalent, from the Bakken formation during a 24 hour period.

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