14
Sep

Trade War Monday?

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Interesting Artcle Watch:

 

Sentiment Watch: Markets feeling a little roiled by the concept of the U.S. and China (the U.S.'s largest debt holder) going toe to toe over trade.  Towards the end of last week I began raising my cash position. I did this for a number of reasons. First, the energy sector had a good run last week after a paltry showing followi ng 2Q earnings (lucky for me) and I took the opportunity to take some quick gains. Second, we are approaching the end of the September options and, well, better safe than sorry. Third, while I'm content to see the market go up on a pyre of short sellers I don't think it can go quite this ballistic on the data we've been getting and combining that with the second reason and the possibility that DC and Beijing can't get along, again, it seemed prudent. This week I will obviously be taking profits and some losses in September positions. I don't think I'll be buying much for end of month trades but you never know. If I do it will be very limited.  


The Week Ahead: Slow start, then very busy on the eco data front.

  • Monday 9/14: No economic data release scheduled
  • Tuesday 8/11: Retail Sales (August, expecting 2.1%, last -0.1%), PPI (exp 1.5%, last -0.9%), Empire State (last -1.1%), Inventories (expecting -0.9%, last -1.1%)
  • Wednesday 8/12:  EIA Oil Inventory Report, CPI (exp 0.3%, core exp 0.1%), Industrial Production (expecting 0.7%, last 0.5%), Home builders' index (exp 20, last 18)
  • Thursday 8/13: EIA Natural Storage Report, Jobless claims (exp 560K, last 550K), Housing Starts (expect 600K, last 580K), Philly Fed (September reading, exp 8.0 vs last of 4.2)
  • Friday 8/14: No economic data release scheduled

In Today's Post:

  • Holdings Watch
  • Commodity  Watch
  • Stuff We Care About Today - CLR, DNE
  • Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

  • $10KP II:
    • $13,700
    • 33% Cash
  • The Current Holdings Tab is updated.
  • The $10KP II Spreadsheet Tab is updated.
  • The ZLT Tab is updated.

 

Commodity  Watch:

Crude oil was volatile last week, ending up only 1.6% at $69.12 after a 4% dip on profit taking on Friday. The 12 month crude strip is now trading at $72.02. This morning crude is trading $0.50 to $1.00 on a stronger dollar, which is getting a small bounce from the U.S./China issue. 

  • OPEC Watch: Apparently while the rest of the group has largely gone back to cheating (complains with the cuts announced 1 year ago has fallen to 68%) both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are spot on with their announced quotas. They have communicated to other members their displeasure with the cheating and tanker tracking companies will be watching closely over the next 4 weeks to see if there is any bucking up of curtailments or not.
  • CME Watch: On Friday the CME said it would enforce existing limits on positions in NYMEX contracts beginning today.

Natural gas rose 9% last week to close at $2.98, giving up a brief foray into the $3.20 to $3.30 range reached after the EIA reported a slightly smaller than expected injection. The 12 month strip is now trading at $4.95, its 3rd week to close below the $5 mark. Hedges for winter can still be made around the $5 mark. We should see a deluge of curtailment announcements over the next few weeks as pipelines begin turning gas away due to high line pack and high storage. This morning gas is trading between down a penny and back above $3.

 

  • UNG Watch: UNG to offer new shares.
  • Weather Watch: Normal. Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) compared to gas storage injections:

    • Week Before Last: 46 CDDs which yielded a 69 Bcf injection with last Thursday's report.
    • Last Week: 45 CDDs, slightly warmer than normal and matching the 2008 period.
    • This Week's Forecast: 40 CDDs, 5 more than normal for this week of the year.
  • Tropics Watch: Nada.

Stuff We Care About Today

CLR Announced $300 MM Senior Deal

  • Due 2019, proceeds to pay down a portion of their revolver.
  • As of the end of the quarter they had $592 mm on the revolver.
  • The commitment level on the revolver was $750 mm
  • They should not be facing any kind of a negative redetermination given the nature of their reserves, their discoveries this year, and the direction oil prices have taken this year so this appears to be just a bit of repositioning. 

 

DNE Brief Update - Revisited a penny cap, acquire and exploit name over the weekend.


Current Thoughts:

  • The Plan: Acquire underworked, neglected gulf coast assets and exploit.
  • Production Profile: Flat for now as workovers replace drilling (for the most part on extremely impaired capex).
  • Balance Sheet: Ugly.
    • $291 mm in debt
    • $17 mm on a revolver with $35 of total space that has already been redetermined lower once this year and is up for redetermination again.
  • Nutshell: I will not be touching it at this time. Simply too much risk. I like management from Remington, I like the concept, but they have a lot of debt, way too much for my liking, and are under the gun for another bank line redetermination. One of the covenants of their line is that they must keep $10 mm cash on hand at the end of each quarter; they had $12.8 mmat the end of last quarter, down from year end levels of $15.5 mm. On a reserves basis it is expensive when you pile the debt on. It has little to no apparent Street coverage. They have some exploratory prospects on the horizon but it looks like the recent rising tide has already lifted this boat.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • (NFX) price target upped from $40 to $51 at Jefferies, rating Buy.
  • (KOG) target upped from $2 to $3 at Keybanc following last week's news and a meeting with management.
  • (CLR) prict target upped from $28 to $32 at RBC, maintains neutral stance. 
  • (ROSE) downgraded to Neutral at SunTrust after the stock hit its $14 target. 
  • (OII) target raised from $87 to $95 at Morgan Stanley. And now for the part that doens't make sense, they rate it equal weight, even though their target is roughly double current levels.
  • (CRR) cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley.

 

 

130 Responses to “Trade War Monday?”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Add to analyst watch: FSLR cut to sell at Soleil, target cut from $170 to $96. Talk about fine tuning your estimates with an axe.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    I’ll have the E&P tables out for tomorrow’s post.

    Thanks to Keybanc for going to visit KOG. If anyone sees more details of that $3 price target with assumptions I’d like to see them.

    NG making an early run, up 12 cents, back above $3. HO was moving off its lows earlier. Have not seen any new winter forecasts this morning so perhaps the two aren’t linked.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    NG up 17 cents.

  4. 4
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Good morning!

    HeadTrader and TechTrader’s combined thoughts for this morning — TT is 55/45 long today… HT thinks that the odds favoring a long trade go up to 60/40 with the opening gap down.

  5. 5
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Love the KeyBanc upgrade on KOG. But also think that KB was a bit miffed that the company did a direct stock placement, last time around. They (KB) just might be positioning themselves to handle the next 2ndary.

    OOOO. Cynical, I know, Chinese Wall and all…..

  6. 6
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    The Debt and Equity perspective… a must read.

    http://www.capmarkets.com/ViewFile.asp?ID1=123550&ID2=350973085&ssid=1&directory=6571&bm=0&filename=09.14.09_Equity_Sentiment_to_be_Harmed_Credit_to_Drive_On.pdf

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Stocks starting out red across the board. This despite the fact that oil is barely off and NG is now up 19 cents and the strip is up over a dime easily.

    BOP – Obama just gave a whole new meaning to the term “Chinese Wall”. I really don’t get the thinking on the tire action. I really just don’t. Were the Chinese dumping tires into the U.S.? Now it looks like the Chinese are going to retaliate by putting the Kung Pow on U.S. chicken imports.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    NG up 27 cents at 3.23. Stocks could care less … yet.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    By the way, note due to NAV and the machinations at UNG, those guys are seeing absolutely 0% today on a 9% move in gas. Yeah, that thing tracks gas greeeaaatttt. Ugh should be their ticker.

  10. 10
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — I think Michael Johnson lays out some good thinking in the piece referenced above. In short, he doesn’t get it either. Exceptionally stupid move by the O-Administration.

    However, this move by the Chinese may actually be very good for our mrkts in the long run. It is a shot across the bow, in the face of an Administration grimly determined to blow our debt levels into the stratosphere.

  11. 11
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    “putting the Kung Pow on U.S. chicken imports”… most excellent, for a Monday morning!

  12. 12
    elduque Says:

    z- Good morning. I bt some GST a couple of months ago. I have started to lighten my positions. Should this be one of them.

    Mahalo

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    BOP – Does make one wonder if anyone in the administration took a marketing class. Floating a trial balloon is an art.

    NG up 33 cents. Not going to $1 handle today at least.

    Oil at $69.37

    Eld – I’ve been meaning to look into that, will get back with some non advice comments later. Welcome back man, thought your island had sunk or something.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Whoever told me not to buy a Toshiba Satellite laptop …kudos to you. Wish I had listened. Sweet 17 inch screen which is nice. Rebooting once a day by pulling the battery not so nice. Friggin boat anchor.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    BOP – Can I get your thoughts on that $300 mm CLR deal? Can’t see the rate from my stories. Wondering why they would pay down revolver now when it is cheap, far from full, and likely to be redetermined up, not down. Thanks.

  16. 16
    isleworth Says:

    Premium is coming out of UNG as they will issue new shares on 9/20. Also the roll to Nov is this week.

  17. 17
    VTZ Says:

    It was me… Toshiba is the worst.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Isle – just too many reasons why it doesn’t track the futures well at all for me.

  19. 19
    jiveyjr Says:

    any sense of how this idiot move on rubber compares to Bush’s move on steel a few years back…both moves shocked me. Bush backed away from his steel protectionism pretty quickly as I recall…not sure what this bunch will do

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    V – I promise to listen next time. I went big screen. It stinks. Although it does have a pretty screen for staring at tickers that’s aren’t blinking and then you notice the mouse pointer won’t move and its disconnect everything, flip it, yank battery, slam battery back home thinking this time the laptop will get them I mean business and reboot.

  21. 21
    VTZ Says:

    The thing about Toshiba is that they seem really nice for about 3 days then everything just starts breaking or failing for no reason. My battery was at 50% after about a year too… something for you to look forward too 🙂

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    Gassy stocks waking up. Thinking about taking my quick HAL put trade off from Friday.

  23. 23
    BossmanG Says:

    Z, only model i had from the toshiba’s was tecra 9000 (back 5 years ago)…built in different country then all the other ones lol..but since then, only thinkpad T-series.

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    VTZ – I never travel with this but when I do take it off the chain it lasts a whopping 15 minutes. I wonder if the govt. would give me a $1,000 to trade in this clunker? Certainly inefficient batteries are a source of something bad which should be stamped out.

  25. 25
    kyleandy Says:

    z – thks for the DNE piece. want to sell it but its up pretty good today.

  26. 26
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    CLR has no public debt outstanding… The last issue they had were some 10.25% notes due 8/08, which the company called at 103.42 on 11/04. So, this is a bit of a strategy shift for them. CLR’s bank loan debt is currently rated B1. So, would expect a B3 rating on any Sr Note issued, all else equal. That’s gonna cost CLR a bit… would only be guesstimating at this point. Need to see further details. As it’s been a long time since CLR has been in the public debt mrkt, I would expect them to do a full road show. Also, I would expect CLR to talk about putting some oil hedges in place (to offset the fixed price debt).

    More details when I get them.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    On the other hand, the little acer netbook works great. Slow but darn handy and its small enough and weighs little enough to put in a big jacket pocket.

  28. 28
    kyleandy Says:

    z – thought u said u bot acer

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    BOP – from their Q they showed what I show in the post. 376 revolvers and then 592 total debt so I assumed the difference was seniors. What is that other stuff, can you see?

  30. 30
    VTZ Says:

    At least those netbooks serve their purpose properly.

  31. 31
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jiveyjr — agreed on the Bush/steel stuff. That was shocking — even at the time. And no, he did not back down on that. It cost US manufacturing a LOT, just as the economy was getting restarted. It was an exceptionally dumbass move that most people ignored.

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Re DNE – and it may go higher. I like Jim Watt a lot. He may have plans I don’t understand. It just looks like they are on the razor’s edge right now. Saw that he hired his old IR guy Steve Craig and I may give him a jingle if they make it through the year. What I think has to happen is either a small debt deal and higher prices on commodities or a very dilutive stock deal.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    Jivey – hear ya, and far be it from me to get political, I am just concerned with the here and now and the implications of the current actions for the markets, repurcussions on U.S. equities like Boeing, etc and the dollar. I have never made a dime being political, partisan etc and so I don’t see the point in it. But when either party makes a move I don’t understand, I gotta wonder about it.

  34. 34
    jiveyjr Says:

    BOP straightened me out…I had thought Bush’s move had been rescinded after a short period…I’m not political type either; counterproductive. protectionism exeedingly dumb in my view

  35. 35
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — #29, the $592 is all revolver debt, up from $374 at the beginning of the yr, with a $750 ceiling as of 6/25/09. So totally makes sense to term some of that out. Once you get that much into your bank line, it’s good balance sheet mngmt to term a chunk out. No one wants to be THAT dependent on just your banks… and the banks don’t want it either.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    Gassy stocks fully awake now. Market pretty much a question mark now. I’d guess natural gas is up on the UNG news as that means more volumes down the road that they can buy.

    Yes, agree, protectionism is no way to go. Don’t care for dumping either, wonder if govt supported dumping was behind the charge.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    Ok, went back in looked at it, I botched that in reading the Q in the early morning hours. My bad, will change in the post, thanks. That makes a lot more sense. Thanks again.

  38. 38
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ha! No problem. Nice to know i’m good for something. 🙂

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    BOP – If they put on some small hedges, I’d be shocked. Undecided on the reaction from the market. Personally I think the strip has flattened too much for them to do it in 2010 now, kind of missed their chance. Flipside is, it takes a lot of risk out of the stock and with the expansion of the revolver and current oil prices they have a lot of drilling to do. So in a nutshell, this seems all good as long as the debt expense isn’t out of whack with what others have been paying. The stock trades at a pretty high multiple of 2010 CF right now (12.7x) but that comes down if they accelerate activity next year into a more solid oil price and ramp volumes further than current expectations.

    Of course, at under 5x 2010 expected CFPS, WLL is the bargain in the Bakken.

  40. 40
    oklahoma Says:

    Nice research and insight; new to the Z

    Considering one of these and thought this link may help to #14

    http://www.tradingcomputers.com/?gclid=CMnPwsHfuJcCFQMCagod5CKKRw

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    BOP – Don’t let it go to your emoticon.

    Oklahoma – Thanks and Welcome!

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Okla – I’ve seen those guys, thanks. Happy with my desktop, probably need to swap out the laptop. I have 5 screens on the desk, three for the desktop including an ubisync which is a neat trick (usb connect), and two on the laptop. Now down to four as the out port on the laptop is pretty much a guarantee that you will be rebooting within the hour.

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    Hearing Kass is voicing more bearish concerns this am.

  44. 44
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Investment Grade CDS index now tighter by a point this morning.

    IG 119 1/2 -1bps

  45. 45
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    yikes… that’s what i get for talking on the phone and typing…

    make that tighter by a BASIS point… at

    IG 110 1/2 – 1bps

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    Somebody wake up HK for me, not tracking gas group.

    NG up 10% now. The 12 month strip is up 15 to 20 cents across the board. That’s pretty strong. Anyone see a new NWS forecast for winter? I am coming up blank. Maybe Bastardi said something?

  47. 47
    oklahoma Says:

    Zman- Well, I’m not a teckie but it looks like they are the computer guys for traders sensitive to timing and such. Need to relace my old Dell.

    By the way, excellent call on the HKIO scalped it for .40!!

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    BOP – so HT and TT both long today, little better than even odds. Hmmm. Starting to think about closing out September positions but market not quite cooperating. Looks like energy wants to run if the SP will just shift into the green.

    Nicky, any thoughts on levels?

  49. 49
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #48 yep. They both thought you go long the morning gap down. However, that doesn’t mean they necessarily think the mrkt goes green (although it might). It just means they both thought you could take a few point out from the long-side trade this morning.

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    Thanks, let me know if you get an update from them. Feels like another “hit the shorts in their shorts day”. Maybe into the close.

  51. 51
    Denise Says:

    Good morning-great article on parking lot for the shipping industry

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1212013/Revealed-The-ghost-fleet-recession.html

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    NG up 35 cents, 12%. Short covering at its finest.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    RBC reporting that CLR’s Logdepole play has very limited running room, only 3 or 4 more wells. That is smaller than I would have thought. I knew it was likely limited to Start County but if RBC has talked with the company and come away with that, the hypeness of the press release is out of character for CLR and unwarranted.

  54. 54
    Denise Says:

    So Z (apology in advance for putting you on the spot)

    What is your guesstimate for NG this winter?
    Cold winter guess?
    Warm winter guess?

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Thanks D – I haven’t stopped following the dry bulkers, I’ve just gone into hibernation on them because they seem like dead money for awhile.

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    Denise – Fair question. Probably better than where is oil going to go. Also a very tough question. I used to be on a team doing just that and it was tough. Warm winter (Nov through March) probably close to $3. Cold winter, depending on how cold probably averages $4.50 to as much as $5.50. I’m talking the whole period average not spikes and dips.

  57. 57
    reefguy Says:

    z. On March 1, what is your guess as to the Calender Strip?

  58. 58
    Denise Says:

    Thank you.

    Thinking if UNG premium is eliminated it may not be a bad way (low risk)to play the possibility of a cold winter.
    Aware you do not care for it but futures are out of my league

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    Guesstimate: March 1, 12 month strip – probably $6.50 to $7.50.

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Dollar index just gave up the U.S./China war gains of the overnight session. Oil fell through $69 and is trading technically with the S&P.

  61. 61
    reefguy Says:

    I agree with your guess

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Reef – obviously depends on winter but I continue to say “when” and not “if” on production declines. Keep gas down here long enough and even the core of the Haynesville will start to contract in terms of drilling activity. Texas looks to be re-rolling over on rigs (one week not a trend but also some anecdotal evidence) and thing that look very good like the EFS aren’t going rig crazy which is telling. Meanwhile, the conventional side of the business gets completely neglected.

  63. 63
    reefguy Says:

    Shutin,just got SWN notification in Fayetteville. Field prices last holiday weekend were about a Buck….

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE:

    WLL – Out second half of September $50 calls for $5.80, up 440%. I will reposition into Octobers later this week or next week. Still cheapest Bakken name I can find.

  65. 65
    bill Says:

    tudor hasnt commented on hk in months

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    Back in 20 minutes

  67. 67
    bill Says:

    those parked ships are the container ships the weakest sector in shipping

    the 2nd weakest are tankers

    bulkers are weak too and i agree all are dead money

    I might be tempted to buy oputs on the tabnker stocks like nat

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    Bill – I noticed that too. Especially post deal, they got quiet. They loved it pre deal and to my knowledge they have not changed their rating. Sounds like “I’m not on the deal team so screw you guys for awhile” from Tudor.

    Wyoming – I found their spy by the way and terminated his subscription. At least I think I did, hard to tell who is really who but the name I found that worked there got punted.

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    Reef – which pipeline? Not surprised by the buck, industrial takes would have been lower than low for the 3 day weekend.

  70. 70
    cargocult Says:

    Can someone fill me in on the “strip”? My background is not gassy.

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    Cargo – generally when I’m saying strip I mean the next 12 months average price of the futures contracts. So, the front or prompt month is October now and will be November at the end of September. Oct gas is 3.22 today. September 2010 gas is 5.75 now and the months in between generally trend up towards that number.

    You can see the strip here, on a delayed basis:

    http://www2.barchart.com/dfutpage.asp?sym=ng

    Those show yesterday’s quotes but if you click a contract it will show you today’s pricing.

  72. 72
    bill Says:

    star of the day is plll which i think is over extended

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    Bill – I hear ya. People couldn’t get enough of WRES on Friday. Today, back to normal lackluster, boring trading, holding the gains which is somewhat surprising. There is some hot money rotating about in the group. Very fast, very touty, not a lot of focus on anything but tickers and charts. They probably haven’t a clue if something is oily or gassy, just that its small and manipulatable.

  74. 74
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    bill — any particular reason for the PLLL move? i can’t see any… was it a conf presentation that lit the fuse?

  75. 75
    reefguy Says:

    Boardwalk/Centerpoint East

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    Can you tell if it was force majeure due to them cutting out a piece of corroded pipe or was it line pack?

  77. 77
    reefguy Says:

    Line pack or price

  78. 78
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    somebody (finally) nudged the HK out of it’s nest…

  79. 79
    DrLink Says:

    Re KOG… I ended up going to RR last week.
    After the presentation I asked Lynn about when he foresaw them raising some $. He said he felt the shares have been undervalued by the market and he wanted to prove up as much as possible before he went back to the market…(wait at least to the completion of the next two wells)…on another note the ATPG presentation I thought was impressive…

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    DRL – thanks much for the color. That’s a help.

  81. 81
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    DrLink — Lynn has been making a lot of good decisions this year. His comments re: 2ndary make sense. Thanks for sharing!

  82. 82
    bill Says:

    bop.. i didnt see anything on plll other than all the little guys getting some momentum money

    plll is underhedged on ng, so higher ng prices helps them

  83. 83
    PackMan Says:

    BOP … your capmarkets letter; is there any way to get on the distribution list or is it a clients only type thing ?

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    Wow, no conferences, little news. Feels like summer but with a bit better volume. A little surprised that the broad market is casting such a shadow today with gas bouncing but that would seem likely to change later in the week if gas can get a couple of closes over $3. Normally I’m not such a short term thinker but this op ex week and I plan on raising cash all week long.

  85. 85
    elijahwc Says:

    Bit of Green around HK

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    Eli – Shhh, don’t scare it.

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    😉

  88. 88
    baylor3217 Says:

    Bought some spy puts for October 103. Have been in and out ofthem recently.

    Risky trade- bought some sept 27 chk puts at the lows for the day on the huge move in the past 10 days.

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE:

    SWN – Sold the September $36 Call position (TKQIY) for $5.60, up 273%. Just lightening up on September positions.

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    U.N. calling for replacement of dollar as world currency.

    http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=109774

  91. 91
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PackMan — stepped away. Back now. re #83… is there any way you fall under the “institutional investor” umbrella?

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    Natural gas looking for a strong close, over $3.30 with 5 minutes left in the NYMEX regular session, nearly 12% on the day. This would be the highest close of the recent spike and would be the highest close in a little over 3 weeks. On a weekly chart it looks like little more than a blip.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Market back to “throw another short on the pyre” mode. Good chance to kill off some more September call positions.

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    BOP – you or anyone see a cause for the SP to just go ballistic to a new HOD? I’m looking at the newswires and don’t see anything.

  95. 95
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I’ll continue to post the links to the strategy pieces, as people seem to find them helpful.

    It was an uncommon mrkt downturn, there is no reason to be surprised that it is an uncommon upturn. Watching what is happening the the credit markets still remains useful, as it continues to confirm “the recovery.” However warm or lukewarm that recovery is.

  96. 96
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    The only thing that HeadTrader could point to is that GE is thru 15 now…

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP.

    KOG waking up again.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE:

    NFX – Out of my 10 NFX $40 September Calls (NFXIH) for $4.10, up 103%. I continue to hold a small October position here and will likely add to that this week or next.

  99. 99
    Dman Says:

    #5 If Western investment banks have Chinese walls, what do Chinese investment banks have?

    #7 “putting the Kung Pow on U.S. chicken imports”

    That’s just pure poetry.

    Z – general Q on gassy names. Since they mostly haven’t been annihilated along with NG when it made its death spiral to $2.40, is it fair to say that they already price in a higher price? I guess the tricky part is, “what would that price be?”. Or is it more about the dynamics: NG moving so stocks will move?

  100. 100
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — i’m liking that KeyBanc upgrade. They cited early (positive) results from wells 7 & 8, as part of the price target increase from $2 –> $3. Sounds like we won’t get production tests from that well pair until mid-October, but the Bakken interval encountered in those wells was consistant with productive Bakken in the rest of KOG’s acreage. So, just one more well to go (#9) until we can put a sharper pencil to potential Bakken KOG Bakken reserves.

  101. 101
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    (a little redundancy there at the end… but, you know what i mean)

  102. 102
    zman Says:

    Dman – U.S. / Mexico borders?

    Dman – actually a lot of the gassy names I follow are making 2009 highs this past week. But I get your point, when do they move higher? I think the concept of gas not falling each and every day is a start. Call it a short cover rally, that’s fine, that also means it doesn’t have staying power isn’t likely to. However, as the move today was paralleled by the strip it does afford the opportunity for guys like SWN to take another trip through their thinking and add some hedges for winter at better prices just in case. Personally, I don’t SWN will as they’ve been adamant about getting $6 to $7. But maybe a CRK is willing at this point to hedge up. If I were on their team I’d be looking at my 2010 plan now and wondering how to pay for it.

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    BOP – they also cited a second TFS test by Peak on their acreage second half and the potential for KOG to spud its own TFS prior to year end or just after new years.

  104. 104
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — yep. The Bakken Play is a Gift that just keeps on giving!

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    Little tickers running again, GST, KOG, WRES, etc…

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    If ROSE will take another day off tomorrow I will look at splitting the spread on some October options there to add to my shares.

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    Imports watch

    LNG remains flat
    Canada volumes retreated from 8.4 to 8.0 Bcfgpd week to week. I would bet these start to come down in the near term as not only can certain producers not get gas to storage due to full pipes but also cross border volumes have limited storage options. I would expect a rebound in Canadian prices after they rebound in the U.S. but I would also expect volumes to deteriorate up their faster due to less of an unconventional well effect.

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    CHK = wow.

    EOG trying to as well.

  109. 109
    Dman Says:

    ERF looks to be breaking out of 3 month downtrend.

  110. 110
    zman Says:

    Thanks, Dman. If I went after a Canadian I’d probably take a look at TLM or NXY or the newly split up ECA.

  111. 111
    zman Says:

    KWK resurrected as well, still milking my $12.50s of Sept. for a come back. May double the October call position when I yank the Septembers tomorrow or Wednesday.

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    Beerthirty.

  113. 113
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HeadTrader pointing out that Asia was down big last night… but the rally in the U.S. mrkt might mean that Asia rebounds strongly tonight. That would set us up for a strong opening tomorrow.

    Either way, strong or weak opening, HT thinks you “keep buying until you’re wrong.” Mo-mo, for sure, but that is what is working now.

  114. 114
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP, that’s exactly what I was thinking. Other than for my HAL puts, that would be a nice op to kill off more of my Sept positions.

  115. 115
    bill Says:

    our govt at work..

    The Treasury Department required financial institutions and automakers that received money from the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program to post their new polices covering “excessive or luxury expenditures” on their corporate Web sites. The policies posted Monday ranged from blanket statements of proper spending practices by company employees, to how much to tip a hotel doorman while traveling.

    lol thats right…how much to tip a hotel doorman while traveling

  116. 116
    zman Says:

    NG continuing to rise in the after market, now up 45 cents, or 15%, at 3.41. The strip is about a quarter.

  117. 117
    zman Says:

    Bill – unreal.

  118. 118
    bill Says:

    that ng move is even more unreal

    i hope hk will wake up

    chk at 27 wow

  119. 119
    PackMan Says:

    BOP – 91 … I can make that claim although not in the traditional sense;

  120. 120
    zman Says:

    MEND on the tape saying new attacks in Nigeria will begin tomorrow.

  121. 121
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PackMan — sounds good enough, thanks!

  122. 122
    Wyoming Says:

    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5768#comment-539169

  123. 123
    Wyoming Says:

    How to lose a bunch of coin, or the hazards of drilling under a volcano …
    http://www.petroleumnews.com/pnads/798229622.shtml

  124. 124
    zman Says:

    NG up another 6% or 18 cents AH to 3.48.

  125. 125
    Wyoming Says:

    Someone asked about the Utica couple months ago:

    http://www.petroleumnews.com/pnads/844460591.shtml

    Alaska LNG exports to Tokyo Power and Light:
    http://www.petroleumnews.com/pnads/652589928.shtml

    Positive on gas prices:
    http://www.petroleumnews.com/pnads/936475543.shtml

  126. 126
    Wyoming Says:

    I’m moving the rig in tomorrow 🙂

  127. 127
    zman Says:

    Ha, ha.

  128. 128
    Wyoming Says:

    #68 Fargin Bastages

  129. 129
    VTZ Says:

    Wyoming – Questerre is the name I follow and trade on and off.

  130. 130
    bill Says:

    PLLL gets 3.15 take out offer

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