Wednesday – Oil Inventory Preview

Posted on by zman

 

ADP's employment survey showed a decline of 298,000 jobs in August, tipping equity and commodity futures lower. It seems this week that good news for the economy (ISM yesterday) is bad news for the market and bad news for the economy (this survey) is also bad news for the markets.  We get July factory orders out after the open as well as FOMC minutes this afternoon.

In Today's Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - BEXP quick NAV
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

  • $10KP II:

    • $4,800
    • 28% Cash
    • The current holdings tab is updated

 

  • Yesterday's Trades:
    • HAL PUTS - Added (5) HAL $24 September Puts (HALUH) for $1.01.
    • BEXP CALLS - Added (5) BEXP $7.50 September Calls (QBJIU) for $0.50.


Commodity Watch:

Crude oil fell $1.91 to close at $68.05 yesterday with a weak equity market. CNBC ran stories all afternoon about energy possibly being the "canary in the coal mine". Because its down, from a high for the year set last week. CNBUseless needs to get a bit longer time horizon. After the close, the API released a bullish looking set of numbers (see below). This morning crude is trading flat after the ADP numbers but will hinge on EIA inventories later this morning. If they mirror the API I will be looking for a bounce in crude back above $70. 

  • China Watch: China hikes fuel prices again. Gasoline and diesel now up about 25% on the year. The intention is to help local refiners (SNP and PTR) offset the costs of higher fuel prices. Ancillary impact is often to boost crude purchases by the same refiners.
  • Oil ETN Goes Way Of Dodo: Deutsche Bank's double exposure oil ETN (DXO) canned.

Natural gas fell $0.16 to close the day at $2.82. ISM came in much stronger than expected yesterday and combining this data with recent storage injections that aren't as bad as earlier in the year when manufacturing was hitting multi-decade lows one would have thought gas would have caught more of a break. But not with equities and oil off hard and not with storage moving towards its all time high level. More thoughts on that in the Stuff section below. This morning gas is trading flat as it eyes a relatively unthreatening looking Tropical Storm Erika.

 

Oil Inventory Preview


API Watch: Pretty Bullish (2 out of 3 anyway)

  • Crude: DOWN 3.193 mm barrels
    • Imports were seen to be up again which makes sense in light of the last two week's action but is hard to explain in light of the bigger than expected draw on stocks without a big increase in refining capacity utilization.
  • Gasoline: DOWN 2.811 mm barrels. 
    • API cites a big pop in demand with gasoline demand reaching 9.7 mm barrels per day which would be near the high for 2009.
  • Distillates: up 0.92 mm barrels.

ZComments:

  • Crude: No strong sense on the crude number today. Last week we got the expected rebound in imports and the crude number came slightly higher. The Street's estimate for crude is in line with the five year average draw down for this time of year which means they haven't a strong sense either. Crude inventories have come 8% off their 19 year high levels attained May 1 (see chart below). but are still 8% over the 5 year average for this time of year. Interestingly, API reported a further reduction in Cushing stocks yesterday . This is a driver for NYMEX pricing. 


  • Gasoline:  The draw here also lines up with the 5 year average for this pre holiday week of the year. I suspect lower production will more than offset lower YoY demand (but higher demand than we saw lasw week) leading to a bigger than expected draw today.
  • Distillates: Bloated, coming down slowly, looking for any sign of life in trucking via diesel demand. Anecdotal evidence continues to point to a seasonal upturn in trucks on the roads...I'm just not seeing it in the demand numbers yet.

Stuff We Care About Today


 BEXP Quick NAV - just a fast look at their balance sheet, current reserves, and potential Bakken reserves. This leaves out any upside from their Gulf Coast and other properties and haircuts their position in the Bakken substantially since while they have a large position, it is still early in the play. I also assume they sell down their interests in the play to accelerate development. In all, this should be a very conservative cut at their valuation.   I added a little yesterday as I was toying with this model and thinking about the fact that the stock will have further drilling news in the next month or so which could prove just as catalytic as yesterday's well news.

 

BP Unveils Tibor

  • Deepwater Gulf of Mexico prospect liked by BP (the operator) to Kaskida which is believed to hold 3 billion BOE of reserves, quite a bit bigger than the largest discovery before that BP/XOM's Crazy Horse.
  • Not a threat to oil prices in a near term since as this will take years to develop
  • Partners are BP (62%), PBR (20%) and (COP) (18%). This could all get a bit of play today. It is a deep Tertiary discovery, BP's second, and could also breath a little life into names like (DVN) who are focused on the trend.

Tomorrow - I'll have a list out of the vulnerable gassy names (lack of hedges, higher utilization of credit lines, and or higher lifting costs) that in the event of a protracted period of weak gas prices I think would be forced to do secondaries and/or suffer more from a stock price perspective.

 

 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • (BJS) upped to Neutral at Credit Suisse
  • (SII) cut to Market Perform at FBR
  • BMO initiated coverage on a number of service names, notably Outperforms on (RIG) with a $115 target and Market Perform on (DO) with a $99 target. If they like RIG, they should really like ATW (apparently not covered).

93 thoughts on “Wednesday – Oil Inventory Preview”

  1. Good morning…. checking in from the Wilds, but wanted to post two important links this morning.

    In light of the sell-off/confusion/(dare I say “hysteria”?) in stocks (rumors of a large money-center bank failure??)… I wanted to add some perspective to the situation.

    So, here is some balance. Analysis and observations from our cross-asset class guys… just in time.

    This was from yesterday morning —
    http://www.capmarkets.com/ViewFile.asp?ID1=311441&ID2=330681313&ssid=2&directory=11608&bm=0&filename=Microsoft_Word_-_Bad_News_For_The_Bears_9-1-09.pdf

    This is from this morning, after yesterday’s sell-off —
    http://www.capmarkets.com/ViewFile.asp?ID1=123011&ID2=348772049&ssid=1&directory=6571&bm=0&filename=09.02.09_Equity_Went_Hysterical_Credit_Just_Winked.pdf

    Take a few minutes to read. Helpful stuff.

  3. Z..qick mention, your excellent BEXP summary above notes net potential barrels etc to KOG instead of BEXP.

  4. Morning BOP – thanks for the links, glad you stopped by. Go back to vacation now. I will bug you later via email. Paddle, relax, repeat. My new mantra.

    Two questions from the Compliance Challenged this morning:

    a) Z: Do you use a “Get out of the Market” discipline. Say if 970 or 950 S&P levels are violated. You are long your E&P space because CFPS is telling you that the space is undervalued. There seems to be much passion in both the bulls and the bears these days. I’m always trying to listen to what the market is trying to tell us. Protection of principal is paramount after what has happened over the last 10 years. Do you use any signal to buy more puts or raise cash. Last fall it seemed to me you just stayed away from things. Always interested in what the brain is thinking. Thanks. S

    b) Z: Do you have the gist of the BMO upgrade? S

    Answers: No, I don’t have an indicator like that, not in a strict mathematical and certainly not in a chart sense. That is more gut. I generally go to more cash and less on the short or put side when times look rough. Obviously I don’t always get it right and the $10KP is suffering out of the gate for not being right over the last 7 days (today will make 8). I do what I do with one eye on the market and two on the stories and energy sectors. If I want a hedge, I generally prefer the missed opportunity of cash to the cuteness of trying to predict when a top is in. Do I believe a top is in right now? Not really no. Isn’t that complacency? No, I don’t think so. The gas story will turn and I continue to roll options into that turn. I have increased my oil exposure and while I hear pundits saying oil is getting clocked I have to wonder at their time lines. Oil was at the annual high last week. Oil in the $60 to $75 range is very healthy for all my oily names. If I want hedge exposure, I think service is a much better way to play as they are the poster children for the phrase stock bubble now, having anticipated a recovery in NAM activity that will be a long time in coming.

    On the BMO – no, I don’t get that. As you know I don’t really pay much/enough attention to NE. RIG I have liked but talk about collapsing forward estimates due to their jackup exposure. Again, no recovery there and utilization for the international jackup set continues to falter. I prefer a DO, less financial risk, same type of deepwater exposure and above them, for the risk incline due to its small size, ATW. ATW’s EPS acceleration over the next 3 years makes me want to own LEAPS or just the stock.

  5. John – call me Jack’s complete lack of surprise. Intern #2 can’t copy and past an excel worksheet worth a damn. That’s changed. I liked the format I used for KOG. Couple of things on that table could use some expounding upon:

    1) I used a royalty rate of 22% but the working interest to get to that low NRI is my best guess of a worst case of what they will have, at the end of the period as they promote out acreage to get it drilled up. I doubt it will be that low on the total.
    2) I slammed them on acreage that will be good for the Bakken. Their number of wells is still limited and that and the fact that they have obviously hit a few sweet spots keeps me from moving it up.
    3) I gave them no credit for probables outside of the Bakken. They are bigger in S. Texas by 2x than they are in the Bakken at present, so again, I whacked their.
    So in a nutshell, that’s a very conservative cut at them.

  6. Click on the article and you may have to hit control + in firefox to zoom in some more.

    http://screencast.com/t/0YRdrmwUjvoX

    Probably a little conservative but it is an opposing perspective some might find interesting. Reserves are recalculated and reflected in a companies balance sheet. There are no smoking guns unless you have incidents like Shell write downs but that comment supports accounting in that miscalculations are eventually corrected. Also, he says you can’t bring production back to original declines, that is not true either. Just the opposite, only a few don’t return back. Moral of the story is the future assumption can vary from company to company but the system beats having the unknowns like OPEC for example.

  7. Thanks for the photos of the legislators – figures.

    Smart money is bidding up DVN this morning, uninvolved in the BP discovery but very involved in the deep Tertiary.

  8. Morning all.

    As I was still not happy with the over bearishness everywhere and every e-wave in site saying we are now on our way to new lows I took another look at the possibilities.

    My preference is that we are actually see an ABC wave iv correction with V up still to come.

    Short term we are in A. In more detail we are in v of A, so likely we should see a bounce once v down completes. B waves can actually retrace the whole move and then some although I doubt we will see that in this instance. Maybe a move back to 1016 on the SPX before C takes over to the downside. I would look for C to complete anywhere from 960 – 980 SPX.

    If I am wrong on this then the short short term count is still the same but the correction that follows will be a ii wave still likely to go back to the same area as B but then the market will enter iii down which essentially will look the same as C to start with. If 950 goes on the SPX I will start to give this count a bit more credence.

    Oil – likely to follow a similar pattern. There is big support at 67.50 which was just tested. A bounce back to 70 ish and then a move down to 62.50 – 65 maybe before moving higher again.

    Nat gas = it looks like it tagged the September contract lows this morning so it has now met the criteria for a low.

  9. If the crude numbers are stronger than expected, or at least in line with API last night, I’m likely to take more WLL on which has had a profit taking reversal from yesterday’s hit on $50 and is under $47 now. I may also add a little lower strike CLR position as well.

    DVN easily outperforming COP and PBR are actually in the BP discovery.

  11. Still watching FSLR molder, looks like it may test $113. If its still down here by the end of the quarter I will probably will watch it through earnings as the company continues to please on the numbers side, just not the color on the calls. SPWRA is in the same boat.

  12. Whole lot of indeterminate market action going on. Nicky, what’s your line in the sand today?

    Oil weakening again with the broad market and with 25 minutes until the oil report.

    Natural gas up 5 cent, could be just due to the bounce off Nicky’s level, could be a little Erika action.

  15. will petrohawk ever release positive news again?

    any news??

    Does Barclay/lehman have a conf this week?

  16. Nicky,

    Can I get your thoughts on gold. To me it looks like it has good buy support at 940 and a break above 965 is bullish for my move to new highs.

    Sept/Oct is also the seasonal play for gold.

    Any new thoughts since our last chat?

  19. Yes.

    Barclays has a CEO Energy Conf next week. Johnson Rice said yesterday they would “not be surprised” to see HK give an update on tweaked completion methods in the Eagle Ford at upcoming conferences. Hard to do that without a press release. Obviously, they have hinted to people a pr is around the corner only to delay it before. I think they need to work diligently on their Street credibility. I think they need to announce some news without saying, “and we like it so much we have to buy more acres and do a deal to pay for those acres”. I think they need to live within cash flow. I think their hedge position would let them do that through 2010 if they did not have such an appetite for expansion.

  20. VTZ – any thoughts on oil sands names in the wake of the China buy in. Sounds like acreage alone could be the next target from what I’m hearing. Any thoughts on a $/barrel of reserves on what they bought?

    I saw CNBC mention the China seasonal gold play thing this morning. Gold continues to hang tough.

    Thanks Jerome.

  22. EIA Oil Inventory Snapshot:

    Crude: down 0.4 mm bbs (imports up)
    Gasoline: down 3 mm (bullish)
    Distillate: up by 1.2 (slightly bearish)

    Gasoline demand: 9.478 mm bpd (that’s pretty strong ytd)

    Dist demand: 3.497 (stronger)

  23. EIA continued

    Stocks at Cushing fell again, from 31.8 to 31.2

    Numbers pretty much as I thought. Imports hurt on the oil side like I was saying was a possibility in the post

    But also, better demand on the gasoline side shows end of season travel is not dead. Should be a similar largish gaso demand number number next week.

    Initial move on crude is down but again, the miss on the top line number for crude was attributable to rise in imports which is catch up from two weeks ago when imports swooned

    ….

  25. ….

    Refinery utilization jumped to 87.2% from 84% last week and crude inputs to refineries jumped nearly 500,000 bopd. That’s a bit surprising.

    Imports were up nearly as much.

    Total products supplied rose to another new high, a level we have not seen since the end of December 2009.

    My sense is that if the broad market does not fall out of bed today that the oil traders will take crude into the green on the rising demand numbers in the report once they have gotten over the disappointment of crude headline number.

  27. ZTRADE:

    HAL – Sold the HAL puts taken yesterday, for $1.19, up 15%. After seeing the oil numbers my sense is that oil is going to bounce and I will reposition these puts if that occurs.

  28. Z – That holding is very tightly held and I have no good information on it although I know that development of that acreage is years (3-4 at a minimum) away.

    If you take into account the low range of the resource estimate and and give them credit for a fairly good recovery factor because the Mackay land is in a pretty good location, then they are paying about 1.05$/bbl. Depending on recoveries and resource estimates you are looking at between 0.85$/bbl and 1.50$/bbl in a poor recovery scenario.

  32. Thanks V. BQI or Opti come to mind as potential targets? Any thoughts?

    Still think we have resource wars down the road a bit. If the POTUS pressures the Canadians to clean up oil sands production from a carbon footprint standpoint and they do it selectively, with the new projects adhering to high standards, that could be the spark that sets China to thumping people. Yes, I do write fiction in my spare time.

  33. Jerome – How’s the BEXP look on a chart. I’m going to take a little stock for the move into the next well and on valuation. Not a lot as I need to work it up some more.

  34. ZTRADE: ZLT

    Added BEXP at $7.69 to the longer term names. Starter position, so about 1/3 of what I’m willing to own here. Probably won’t add more until we see more well results in a month or so.

  36. I personally dislike BQI for two reasons that I’ve mentioned to Z in the past.

    First off is royalty risk. Saskatchewan has not fully committed to a royalty structure for oil sands yet.

    Secondly is technology. While substantial, their land is deeper and has slightly different characteristics than some of the other plays that are closer to the Athabasca river. In general, the land that is closest to the river is the best for geological reasons and depth. I do believe that it will be developed but they need to show me something before I’d like to story.

    The most likely takeout targets are CLL, UTS and OPC. Opti would likely be taken out by Nexen for full control of their play. UTS by the new Suncor/Petro-can or if Teck Cominco can get their debt inline. CLL by almost anyone.

  37. Hi zman…BEXP has a good P&F chart, currently on a buy signal breaking its long term downward trendline at 6.50 which now remains major support, its a buy, ideally near its 20 days MA 6.95, if it gets there, goes on a short term sell signal on a print of $6.00, long term support is all the way down to 3-3.25

  39. Thanks Jerome. I’d like to see a pickup in volume today though. In the past, the smaller E&Ps who fail to see volume support on day two after news seem to lose support quickly as the fast money sloshes around.

    Wyoming – 35. Nice. Wonder if that’s one of his numerous czars now. Don’t you have wells to drill or something, lol?

  40. Oil failing to maintain its rally on the data earlier as the market retreats from its highs. Meanwhile the dollar has rolled over a bit. Market looks pretty fearful of tomorrow’s employment report but also pretty directionless.

  41. No problem Jerome. If you have any questions let me know and if I don’t answer them ask them another day if you see me posting. I generally read every day but some days there’s no time to post.

  43. Thanks JAT and ELI, got your emails, will read in a minute, stuck on a call now.

    An aside, gasoline demand was at the second highest level it has been all year last week and was above the year ago and five average.

  46. SWN; while not a very good technician, it seems to me that SWN is due for a test of at least 34.65 on the downside; and overall the chart; like many of its brethern, are breaking down.

  47. 26 …. Bill, that would be a killer for all active traders.

    Unless, they limited it to the institutional HFT traders.

    However, once they institute any tax, you can bet over time they would expand it, even if it excluded small traders initially.

  49. 29

    i was amazed they allow raping of prisoners and no one says a thing, we pour water on them and the world cries torture and bho wants to prosecute

    sooner or later iran will have to be delt with, imho the rhetoric is the same as germanys pre ww2

  55. Hey West, I was looking at that presentation days ago but I skipped over the front pages for the maps, was that there before in the August presentation or did they change the file?

  56. The slide (word) shouldn’t have been on link. Not a big flame but confirmation of gas shows that were reported.KOG has not publicly said anything about gas flare,so I thought it was interesting.

  61. FYI – KGS

    13:18 KGS Quicksilver Gas files $150 mln mixed securities shelf offering (15.05 +0.05)

  62. zman, thoughts on “option repair” regarding HK calls? I’m averaged in at .65 for the 24s. Currently trading at .15.

    What are your thoughts on cutting losses? Typically when from month gets below .20, it seems they rarely climb back up and quickly go to a nickel.

  64. Eli – thanks, that’s good news for

    Baylor – I’m waiting for a bounce to reposition. The name has been down with the group which has been down with natural gas for the last 10 days or so. We have 12 trading days left in those calls and while I’m not adding, I’m not selling yet. I won’t add just because they are down and would be more likely to take a lower strike now. I will take a loss, if we get that pop, and reposition. Natural gas is very oversold, doesn’t mean it won’t stay that way but it is due a bounce.

  68. RE: NG
    What do you attribute the low injection number to relative to last year where we had 90 BCF on similar CDD’s.
    Is electricity likely the culprit.

    Are any of the 10KP positions you have worth going in at lower levels. I’m thinking KWK at $10.

  70. MD – You mean for tomorrow’s number. Trending off the prior week and a much higher storage position. When storage is high this early in the season you tend to get smaller injections. I’d bet industrial is starting to soak up more gas as well. Maybe gas fired gen is stealing from coal as well.

    The gassier names are more risky as gas can’t seem to find a bottom in here. When it does it will be a quick but don’t when that is. The oilier names are likely to outperform the gassy names until then and I have several of those in the portfolio. Feels more like a buyer’s strike than a panic sell down here.

  71. FOMC minutes out:

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Federal Reserve officials were more confident that the steep downturn in the economy was coming to an end, but had no firm grasp about the likely strength of the recovery, according to the minutes of their Aug. 11-12 policy meeting released Wednesday. There was some suspicion among officials that the recovery would be pretty fragile and vulnerable to shocks. As a result, Fed officials decided to stand pat. Officials did agree to slow the pace of the remainder of its purchases of $300 billion in government debt to the end of October. Fed officials said this was done “to promote a smooth transition in markets.” Many Fed watchers took the decision as a sign that the central bank had entered a new “end of easing” phase.

  72. Nice work PackMan. Don’t try to entice me into looking at your political writings. I’m again banned from entering the political abyss. Wife says it makes me too grumpy.

  75. Market could care less about minutes. Stagnant in from of jobs tomorrow.

    MD – agree – as the nukes are going to run flat out no matter what it should really be eating coal’s lunch. And the domestic coal patch has reacted by closing mines. A lesson for Aubrey & Co. Less demand? Produce less.

  76. tater – nice swn chart work. I agree with the $36 line in the sand. SWN has certainly held right there most of the day.

  77. Another month of days like today and gas will be 0. That’s just not going to happen. I am guessing we will see a wave of voluntary production curtailments in the next week.

  78. SLB says Chicontepec wells profitable at about half of current well cost. Again, I say Mexico goes net importer within 5 years.

    SLB also saying don’t expect V-shaped recovery in NAM. I know, I know, no kidding, I say that all the time and watch the OIH, even the gassy, NAM leveraged names like HAL rise into and they have said this before but its worth repeating. I just have to think the NAM gas directed rig count rolls lower and soon. I’ll wait for it, checking patiently each Friday and then I will be back on puts on HAL and NBR.

  79. Oil closed flat on the day, up off the lows set pre numbers. I have seen one story noting demand ticked up. For the most part, you should not expect gasoline demand to rally past the next two week’s numbers and I’d expect it to be slightly higher next week and slightly lower the following week compared to this number as you are getting some inventory stocking at gasoline stations in advance of the holiday weekend.

  80. Hawkcam shows a new prez to be announced one of these days, Dick Stoneburner, Floyd to remain Chairman/CEO

  81. JP – nice rumor. Hawkcam have a good view into the near or far future? I’d guess that would be a less aggressive hawk.

  83. BOP – lurking on vacation? Really nothing to see here this week. Except for West’s catch of a flare at #7 outlined above. Apparently old news but I’d not seen it … so at least we know they have CH4.

  86. kyleandy — TeddyCam is working just fine. No worries about KOG. Just wonder what is taking the boys so long to write the operational update. I doubt it will blow anybody’s socks off (it wasn’t a pair of 28-stage fracs, after all), but it is incremental “good stuff.”

    KOG will go higher (unless oil tanks to sub-40), just a matter of “when” and no longer “if.” World of difference, now that KOG has production.

  88. Heard as recently as yesterday APA actively looking for acq. Did not hear XEC. Consolidation coming, was thinking later this fall (closer to redetermination time) but its coming.

  89. BHI deal drawing a lawsuit to block it. BJS shareholder claiming BHI paying too little. With all the pumping capacity out there I think the dude needs to get real.

  91. Pritchard raised BEXP target from $8 to $10 this morning.

    RJ now at $14 target on BEXP which is their NAV.

    RJ goes with 1/2 of BEXP acreage prospective for Bakken (no comment on TFS) and takes the mid point of the new range for BEXP wells with 24+ stages (500 to 700,000 barrels) to come up with $10.63 per share for the Bakken alone.

  92. BOP my deepest apologies for lack of originality and or payment of royalties, but it did seem fitting. It’s been in the works for some time actually. Expected an announcement with earnings.

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