18
Aug
Teetering Tuesday
Sentiment Watch: Market is less panicked but lacks confidence. Eco data of the day came in mixed with housing starts down 1% for July but single family building permits up 5.8%. PPI came in benign. Home Depot actually sees things turning up in contrast to Lowe's more dour forecast from yesterday.
Nicky's Technical Comment Watch (from yesterday)
- My preferred count for the broader market is that we are in C of B down which when complete will lead to the final push up for 2C.
- Sure its possible that the top is in but cycles make me think we have another move up into the middle to end of September once this correction is done. There is a minor cycle bottoming today. Support is here at 982 and then more important support at 967, 950. I think 950 will hold the downside, maybe 967 and then we see the final push to the 1055 SPX area.
- If I am wrong and the top is in then likely the first wave down is complete or close to completion and we will see a 3 wave correction to the upside.
In Today's Post:
- Holdings Watch
- Commodity Watch
- Crack Spread Update
- Stuff We Care About Today - The large cap E&P orange charts
- Odds & Ends
Holdings Watch:
- $10KP:
- $16,700
- 61% Cash
- The Wiki Holdings Tab Is Updated
- $16,700
- Yesterday's Trades:
- VLO - Sold out of the August $17 puts, VLBTM for $0.26, down 40% with the stock at $17.20. Refining margins remain depressed but the stocks continue to hold their own fairly well, perhaps due to the potential for storm related disruptions this time of year.
- CLR - Added (10) August $35 Calls (CLRHG) for $0.35 with the stock down 9% today ($32.95 now) on 2.7% down oil and a weak market. This will be a quick one and is obviously a bit higher risk as the options have less than 5 days of life left in them. I continue to hold September calls here.
- HK - Added (9 - part fill) August $22 calls (HKHS) for $0.40 with the stock at $21.50. Risky. I continue to hold $23 and $24 strikes here and am in some September calls as well.
Commodity Watch
Crude oil fell $0.76 to close at $76.55 yesterday. The move was strongly influenced by a weak equity market and a stronger dollar and at the end of the day crude fared better than I would have expected, influenced by a strong bid for gasoline which itself was likely higher on tropical concerns. This morning crude is trading flat.
- Early Reach On Oil Inventories:
- Crude: UP 1.35 million barrels
- Gasoline: DOWN 1.9 million barrels
- Distillates: UPP 0.5 million barrels
Natural gas fell $0.075 to close at $7.16 yesterday. Gas prices are largely at the whim of the tropics now and I suspect the first near miss will result in first a small rally and then a test of $2 land. I suspect such a move will be both sharp and brief with a short covering rally carrying gas back into the middle $3s in short order. I also suspect we will see forced production curtailments by early September, which should have a similar impact with gas moving at first down, then up on the news. This morning gas is trading up slightly.
- Imports Watch #1: 9.2 Bcfgdp, flat with last week and 0.2 Bcfgpd lower than last year.
- Canada: 7.9 Bcfgpd, flat with last week, donw 0.3 Bcfgpd from last year.
- LNG: 1.1 Bcfgpd. Where is the massive wave of LNG that came on line and was expected reach U.S. shores this past Spring? It is mid August ... and we are up 0.1 Bcfgpd to last year's low numbers but well off normal levels of as much as 3 Bcfgpd seen in 2007.
- Canada: 7.9 Bcfgpd, flat with last week, donw 0.3 Bcfgpd from last year.
- Imports Watch #2: PetroChina signs a $41 billion contract to receive 2.25 mm tons per year of LNG from Exxon and Shell's Gorgon project in Australia. This is the biggest energy contract ever signed by China. This works out to about 58 Bcf per year or nearly 1.2 Tcfe in total and adds to the 1.0 mm tons per year China was already going to take from Gorgon. This insatiable demand may give one an idea of where all that gas that was supposed to be going to the U.S. is actually headed.
- XOM may run a bit on this news.
- Tropics Watch:
- Ana - pretty much dissipated over the Caribbean last night
- Bill - predicted to be a Cat 3 fish storm over the Atlantic later this week.
- There is another wave behind Bill.
- Ana - pretty much dissipated over the Caribbean last night
Crack Spread Update
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Key Takeaways:
- Cracks Are Likely To Worsen This Fall. Unless cool air forecasts bear fruit early or refining utilization falls more steeply than normal for the time of year. High distillate inventories, especially of heating oil are going to make a margin recovery somewhat difficult until we reach mid winter and see just how cold the weather is (how high demand is).
- Estimates Have Been Dropping Like Stones. Industry leaders VLO and TSO have seen over a buck of earning expectation evaporate since our last look at the group just before earnings season started.
- The Smaller Names Seem To Get Less Frequent or Less Accurate Updates. The smaller refining names often don't see estimate updates as frequently as their big cap peers. Note from the table the negative expectations for VLO and TSO for 2009 but the relatively unscathed EPS of smaller players like HOC and WNR. These estimates are likely to come down but not until just before 3Q results.
Stuff We Care About Today
TSL Says To Reach FSLR Cost Targets Soon.
- Beat estimates last night (announced $0.71 vs expectations of $0.37) and reaffirmed guidance. This is a Chinese solar name and in the past results from this group have been a little squirrely.
- They mentioned on the call they will be competitive in 2010 with modules made by FSLR; that's a pretty steep claim to make for a polysilicon producer.
- My sense is they mean they might achieve FSLR's current levels and not the levels First Solar will be at by then on a cost per watt basis (probably below $0.80 per watt).
- They are expanding capacity which is a positive sign for the group after many other Chinese players have been talking about layoffs.
I'll have the Large Cap E&P Valuations charts out in tomorrow's post and will put both the small/mid and large cap tables on the E&P tab.
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch:
- KWK target cut at Jefferies from $15 to $13, keeps at Buy
- PXD raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer
Art Cashin about as negative as I’ve seen him this morning. For the past four months I would have called him highly frustrated. Now he’s calling for “historic trading” over the next 8 weeks … implication is crash. He says he’s watching the BDI, Chinese stats (which he calls suspect and they probably are but so is BDI), he pointed to Ramadan on 8/22 (I don’t really get that reference as it pertains to the market???) and the time of year (Sept/Oct can be volatile it is fair to say and often negative). Anyway, he was saying that he was pointing to things not making sense last week and then yesterday happens. I seem to recall several months of him saying the same so it may be a stuck clock being right every so often. For the record, I continue to the think we are in a bumpy move higher in the stock market which goes along with a jobless recovery in the economy. The market will always discount the future prospects of the economy and has done so in this case and probably needs a breather. Crash on the fear of a double dip? I don’t think so. A lot of money missed the move of the last 4 to 5 months and wants to be longer by year end. People want to see higher revenues from companies but given all the discounting that’s not really possible at this time. A measure of units would be more appropriate. Unless you are a perma bear.
August 18th, 2009 at 8:04 amIs there a possibility of repeating this time frame, last year, going into the new year? It was quite the disaster.
August 18th, 2009 at 8:11 amRe 2 – Sure. I think things are quite different now than they were then though, especially in energy land, where you were coming off record high prices for both oil and natural gas and the market was discovering new things on a daily basis about the instability of the financials.
August 18th, 2009 at 8:14 amRBOB and HO getting hit pretty hard this morning. Death of Ana likely culprit.
August 18th, 2009 at 8:16 amHas there been TS’s that break up, especially as they approach FL, and then regroup into something dangerous once it’s over the warm GOM waters?
August 18th, 2009 at 8:19 amram — i don’t think it’s a high probability we repeat last year’s Cliff Dive. That happened b/c we were one hair-breath’s away from a global run on the banks. I don’t think we will revisit that FEAR level… doesn’t mean we don’t go down for a while. But, not seeing anything in the Credit Mrkt to indicate we are headed back toward the abyss.
IG 124
TED 24 bps (it was over 100, this time last yr)
August 18th, 2009 at 8:20 amThat said, TechTrader thinks it’s a 60/40 short day… short early and then again on any bounces around 11:05-11:40 EDT.
HeadTrader agrees.
August 18th, 2009 at 8:22 amThis time last year, the IG index was around 150. Just to round out the comps.
August 18th, 2009 at 8:24 amre 5. yes. It depends on a lot of things as you’d guess. One is how much the islands break up the system. How well organized and how big it was and what it faces on the other side of Hispaniola (where the mountains are quite high) in terms of pressure systems also plays in. SSTs in the Gulf are quite hot:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ncoda_web/dynamic/ncoda_1440x721_global_sst.gif
(you can zoom in on the Gulf in that graph)
As to Ana, it was small and poorly organized in the first play. They put the probability of reorg in the Gulf at less than 30%. It could however pull a popup action like Claudette.
August 18th, 2009 at 8:25 amThanks much BOP.
August 18th, 2009 at 8:28 amNG- $3.75 by Thursday afternoon..IMHO
August 18th, 2009 at 8:32 amO.K., but the millions of unemployed that will not contribute to the GDP engine could set us for a double dip. Maybe not a banking disater, but a lack of consumer dollars chasing goods disaster could be looming.
August 18th, 2009 at 8:35 amI finally move to a happy place and all I can think of is negative things.
August 18th, 2009 at 8:37 amSee 11, that right there, that is the kind of optimistic leadership this country needs. I have not seen consensus yet as its a bit early in the week just yet but I’m thinking 45 to 55 Bcf on the number. Reef, does your price forecast include the resuscitation of Ana? Right now sie is tot.
August 18th, 2009 at 8:37 amRam – I hear ya. And I’m mindful of it as well. On all those unemployed folks, I suspect benefits will be extended until we are close to positive job numbers.
BOP – This much be the rally HT and TT are looking for.
August 18th, 2009 at 8:42 amz- current ratio is 21.0 to 1, that is unsustainable. Historic range is 3.5 to 21.4/ 1, with about 98% range of 8 to 16. At $60 oil that is $3.75. I do not think we touch $2.99; at current $66 oil that would be 22 to 1
August 18th, 2009 at 8:42 amReef – Not disagreeing with you. Let me play devil’s advocate for a bit though. If supply is no longer a function of bright spots on 3D but instead a function of applied capital to shale projects, with supply readily scalable to meeting future increased demand, would it not be possible for the two commodities to decouple a bit more than usual? I know unconventional gas is probably only 15 to 20% of the mix and declines at 75 to 85% in the first year but isn’t it possible that it will quickly become a large piece of the production pie (the flipside being you have to keep drilling or you drop like a stone). Anyway, just thinking that the pendulum always swings to far and that the coming curtailments may see us at least initially stretch the multiple further as traders say “holy cow, there is so much gas in the ground that EOG, CHK, APC, DVN, XTO are having to pinch back wells on order of the pipe the companies.”?
August 18th, 2009 at 8:49 amAnd for those of you keeping track, natural gas has fallen for nine straight days now.
August 18th, 2009 at 8:50 amAlso, in about 10 days we get more supply data. Hard to say if we get more pronounced declines. Normally I would have said we would. But the number of previously drilled but uncompleted wells that are being completed in a dribbled out fashion so E&Ps can make there targets is a big unknown. We know there are lots of them. We just don’t know when they are getting tied in. If we don’t see more prounounced declines I would suspect we see the front months come under more pressure.
August 18th, 2009 at 8:52 amKOG seems to have developed a fan base… so, it’s not just you, me, occam, kyleandy, and john11. We have some company now.
The next four wells that KOG drills will pretty much prove up all their acreage for the Bakken. Then it’s a matter of when do they test the TFS and what does the infill drilling program look like.
TeddyCam reported that KOG mngmt is already busy laying out the 2010 drilling program. I think they are working more and more closely with XTO and that shows in their increasingly professional communications with their investor base.
Nice work KOG Mngmt team!
August 18th, 2009 at 8:55 amNice moves in the midget class, again moving together. KOG up 5%, WRES up 3%
Stocks just fought off round 1 of selling. Still thinking pretty short term on yesterday’s adds to CLR and HK.
August 18th, 2009 at 8:55 amInteresting talk by the regulator who cleaned up the 1980s S&L mess:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1338-Sunday-Lesson-Why-Normal-WILL-NOT-Return.html
August 18th, 2009 at 8:59 amram — #12. the difference between a banking disaster and consumers not buying is like the difference between a head-on collision at 60 miles per hour vs getting bumped by an old lady in a Cadillac in the Target parking lot.
The first is a disaster. The second is a lot of noise and fury and pain to fix, but you live through it.
August 18th, 2009 at 9:00 amHeadTrader — with AXP being upgraded and good TGT and HD, hard to believe we get a sell-off….
August 18th, 2009 at 9:07 amIG 123.5
August 18th, 2009 at 9:08 amFSLR on the tape with 2 new projects in California. 550 MW total – that is very large for solar, about half a nuke in size.
August 18th, 2009 at 9:08 amAt 550 megawatts, that FSLR contract is the biggest I’ve ever heard of for a solar installation. As a point of reference FSLR produced 288 MW for worldwide distribution in the second quarter. This gives visibility on revenues into 2012.
Most solar announcements you see are for 30 MW here and 50 MW there. In March of 2009, they announced they had reached 1 gigawatt installed since their inception as a company, so this deal is for over half of that amount. Surprised the stock isn’t moving better but the announcement came out 30 minutes before the open and still isn’t on their website.
They still seem to be Street-unfriendly with regard to earnings and news. The idea would be to work with the Street to buoy your stock, don’t give them so little time to analyze the news it gets sidelined. Much better to come out with this kind of stuff after the close.
August 18th, 2009 at 9:25 amBOP – I don’t agree or disagree with your comparison. All I know is facts: you have millions of americans that have their incomes reduced, so they modify their consumption. They will drive less, cooling will be at 80+ deg and heating will be low 60 deg to save on energy costs. You also have a gov’t that doesn’t like the energy crowd. That is quite the wall of worry for the energy stocks to climb. And I hope they do still climb the wall.
August 18th, 2009 at 9:27 amram — if you’re just talking about the energy sector, then my-bad. I thought you might be refering to the market as a whole. Energy is a bit of a tough sell, right now. With storage headed toward record fill, no exciting weather to talk about, a govt hell-bent on eliminating the hydrocarbon molecule, and consumers and businesses on hold (waiting to see what shoes drop next). So, we agree.
August 18th, 2009 at 9:34 amFWIW column-Cramer was pounding the table apprx week ago about FSYS-heavily involved in nat gas development for transport sector-with poss passage of NatGas Act in Congress, could get more upside-looking at chart, would not touch it now, it has a triple since mar 09 but have it on my watch list.
August 18th, 2009 at 9:34 amBut, the best time to do your homework on what stocks to own is when everyone else hates them.
Never buy anything that everyone has agreed to love. You don’t make $$ that way.
August 18th, 2009 at 9:36 amhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/156612-german-solar-incentives-in-jeopardy?source=email
Article “may” be info for FSLR in Germany
August 18th, 2009 at 9:36 amBOP – re 29 – please note the poor correlation between pricing of natural gas and storage levels. The trajectory of the supply imbalance has proven to be a better indicator of price than absolute storage which is why you had prices almost triple their current levels in 2006 with similar bloated storage levels. Once supply levels noticeably rollover, the full storage levels will have less of an impact on price.
August 18th, 2009 at 9:37 amz — hence, my follow-up statement in 31. Agreed. Storage is a poor indicator of price. But, it’s being used as an excuse right now, not to jump with both feet into the sector.
August 18th, 2009 at 9:41 amOne near term thought meant to put in post. I was surprised by the lack of gasoline demand last week. Number looked a bit odd given the normal seasonal end of season driving but instead of an uptick we saw it move lower. My best guess is we see a bigger move up this week in gasoline demand figures which along with curtailed capacity could lead to a good sized draw down of gasoline. Street is already looking for a good sized draw, could be bigger if imports remain at average levels.
Hear ya BOP, didn’t mean to lecture, wanted to be clear for the new folks.
August 18th, 2009 at 9:43 am… and higher gasoline demand would likely spur an uptick in gasoline prices as the continued restock will be seen moving towards the holiday. That could give oil prices a bit of a relief rally for the week. Just my big picture thoughts for the week. If the equity does melt down then none of that will keep oil away from the lower $60s.
August 18th, 2009 at 9:45 amz — lecture away! Never mind a healthy exchange of comments/opinions. Goal here is to educate, elucidate, and make everyone some pocket money.
August 18th, 2009 at 9:54 amBOP – do you see any of the week’s remaining data as catalytic outside of claims, leading indicators and Philly fed?
August 18th, 2009 at 9:56 amJust a bunch of wishy-washy stuff, that could drive the mrkt either way, but don’t mean a heck of a lot. Like ram says, it’s about the consumer and jobs. We will get personal income/spending on Aug 28th, Chicago Purchasing Manager in Aug 31st and ISM Manufacturing on Sept 1st. There are a few mortgage indicators, consumer sentiment, and home price surveys… but, these are not permanent mrkt movers right now. JOBS and SPENDING is.
Oh, and whatever is streaming out of Washington DC. With Congress and the President on vacation (Martha’s Vineyard next week), don’t think we will see much mrkt-moving headline news.
Sentiment and day-trading will rule, for now, i think.
What do you think?
August 18th, 2009 at 10:05 amJust speaking as to this week, I think jobs and leading indicators would normally be the big swings. I’d expect a positive surprise in existing home sales due to the $8K giveaway as well. But agree, mostly just trading noise.
In energy land, there is not really a near term catalyst. No conferences this week that I’m aware of, storage number doesn’t matter that much from a big picture view but may for pricing given where gas is now. Still haven’t seen a number for the estimate there and am thinking they need to be careful and set that bar for an easy beat of gas will take a trip to $2 land.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:10 amMarket looks bored. Maybe a rally in the U.S. today can inspire a rally in sentiment and markets abroad (recall China is off like 20% in the last 2 weeks) and thus a further move higher tomorrow but that’s somewhat circular, eh?
August 18th, 2009 at 10:12 amAngola set to add 50,000 bopd to production to reach 1.9 mm bopd in October, was already cheating on its current OPEC quota of 1.52 mm bopd.
September OPEC meeting should be all about member compliance. I don’t see a chance for a group increase in output at that meeting. I think OPEC will see itself as having done its part to help grow the global economy by producing as much as it has and letting stockpiles stay bloated while the dollar has come off.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:19 am67.76/3.128= 21.66, Think its going to break 22/1???
August 18th, 2009 at 10:32 amReef – yes. briefly.
Somebody wake up the stocks, crude at HOD, stocks not close to it.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:33 amreef — yep. you?
August 18th, 2009 at 10:33 amNope….
August 18th, 2009 at 10:35 amI see the seismic company stocks doing well as a group today. Any particular reason?
August 18th, 2009 at 10:37 amTopic change: MHR- any thoughts??
August 18th, 2009 at 10:37 am47- Marcellus needs 3-D
August 18th, 2009 at 10:38 amreef — is the Marcellus structurally complex? Like, a lot of faulting?
August 18th, 2009 at 10:40 amMagnum Hunter? Thought they sold out…
See a LOT of insider buying in June and early July… rigth up to 80 cents. What’s going on there?
August 18th, 2009 at 10:42 amyes and much natural fracturing. Some of the verticals nave encountered open systems with big ip’s that go poof. Much of it will get 3-D. Maybe like 5 MM acres…
August 18th, 2009 at 10:43 amis the Marcellus a high-silica shale?
August 18th, 2009 at 10:44 amGary Evans buys into PRC, name change back to his old name MHR. He is tring to get into Marcellus…
August 18th, 2009 at 10:45 am53- si, with calcite filled and open fractures. Much of it is overpressured. Now see the similarities to Hy and EFS?
August 18th, 2009 at 10:46 amha! ok. see that now… changed the name in July. Haven’t heard the Magnum Hunter name in a while. You a Gary Evans fan?
August 18th, 2009 at 10:47 amhi-Si + structural overlay ==> natural fracturing… much better than the man-induced stuff, if you can get it. thx
August 18th, 2009 at 10:48 amEFS economics may turn out to be a bit better than Hayensville.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:50 amok… back to MHR… what’s so special there? Looks like someone gave them a bank line, so accretive acreage deals?
August 18th, 2009 at 10:50 am59- How much availability??
August 18th, 2009 at 11:02 amreef — as of 7/13/09, zero avail
August 18th, 2009 at 11:11 amOil just got back all of yesterday’s loss plus a buck. One word: dollar.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:13 amhow much cash equity did the current mngt put into MHR?? That is key. Because, the way the stock option awards are set up, mngmt gets rewarded if they raise $$, do an acqtn, or issue equity. Seems like mngmt has carved out a pretty nice call option, on the backs of the lenders.
That said, MHR is paying LIBOR + 6.50-7.50% on their $15mm Term Loan…so, bankers taking a nice chunk out of cash flow too. Question is, who ends up with the assets, and what ARE the assets?
MHR always did like to run with knives…
August 18th, 2009 at 11:14 amMHR – like HK without all the conservatism.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:14 am(i’d say “sissors”…. but that would underestimate the risk here)
August 18th, 2009 at 11:16 amMHR is no HK. They are looking to control 42k of leases in WV
August 18th, 2009 at 11:17 amReef – true, not at all from a company comparison. I was thinking of past financial risk tolerance levels.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:18 amAnd CIT is the banker to MHR. CIT reduced their line from $17mm to 12mm in March.
Reef — you see something you like here??
August 18th, 2009 at 11:19 amNice eye – be sure to click animate. Matters not a bit to gas prices.
http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/storms/bill_satellite.html
Anybody here an excuse other than the dollar for oil being up $1.70?
August 18th, 2009 at 11:20 amHere is any article about ny pushing for marcellus gas:http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=335400162148553
August 18th, 2009 at 11:21 amIG 122.5
August 18th, 2009 at 11:22 amMHR- shortly I will know, certainly not a long term holding!
August 18th, 2009 at 11:23 amreef — looking forward to your conclusions. With that kind of financial leverage on the company, you can get BIG swings in equity. Either way.
Back to the question, tho… how much cash-moola did MHR mngt put in at the beginning?
August 18th, 2009 at 11:25 amFWIW, I remember in summer 2007 a big summer run in the indexes with the Dow topping at 14000 plus … that top was on Aug 17.
coincidental timing ?
August 18th, 2009 at 11:26 am73-looking for it…
August 18th, 2009 at 11:28 amMIDDAY Trading Update
· Stocks rebounding from their drubbing on Mon, although volumes/conviction pretty light today in equities and other asset classes (corp credit, TSYs, etc) aren’t reversing as much. The selling from yesterday has abated today and some small buying is appearing, but the rally today in stocks feel tentative and investors for the most part aren’t viewing yesterday’s action as a 1-day isolated event. As of 12:15pm: DJIA +0.8%, SP500 +1%, Nasdaq +1.11%.
· Sectors – pretty much a reversal of yesterday’s trends: financials up more than 2% (recall fell 4.2% Mon) and best acting major group. The following sectors all up more than 1%: tech, industrials, discretionary, materials. Utilities, health care are relative laggards (flattish on the day. Autos up >3% (AXL’s 100%+ rally helping a lot).
· Corp credit – IG underperforming while HY strong – IG is pretty much flattish (+/- half a BP); HY is strong today, up 7/8 (helped by the AXL news)
· Treasuries – 10yrs fall just a bit today (10yr yields rise 2bp today to 3.49%). 2s are flattish on the day.
· FX – the DXY is falling 0.3% today after a large increase Fri/Mon. The yen falls slightly against the dollar (off 0.28%), although has gained a lot over the last three days.
· Earnings wrap – bunch of retailer earnings today – HD +4%, SKS +8%, TGT +7%, TJX -3%. CIT is up 3% after posting its 10Q last night. A rallies 9% post its report. Big night for tech today w/HPQ and ADI due to post earnings.
· CX shrs rally ~4% on its debt restructuring announcement; AXL surges more than 100% after its credit agreement unveiled this morning.
Economics
· Housing starts declined 1.0% in July and permits fell 1.8%, but the housing construction report was still reasonable favorable. The report was more positive than the headline numbers would suggest because starts and permits in the important single-family category both increased, and because housing starts are still on track to be well higher in the third quarter than in the second quarter. We have been forecasting that real residential investment would rise 10%q/q annualized in 3Q, but that may turn out to be too low. Abiel Reinhart
· PPI – Both headline and core producer prices fell in July, another sign that inflation is moderating. The PPI for all finished goods declined 0.9%m/m and a record 6.8%oya, while the core PPI dropped 0.1%m/m and rose 2.6%oya. Core intermediate goods prices rose for the second consecutive month in July, but the increase was a muted 0.2%. Given the significant level of slack in the economy, core inflation at the producer level will probably continue to decline in coming quarters. That should in turn contribute to low inflation at the consumer level, in particular for core goods. Abiel Reinhart
Calendar of events
· Economics for Wed Aug 19: MBA mortgage apps; Architecture Billings Index
· In CMBS, the next TALF window will close on Aug 20.
· Earnings for Tuesday – HPQ, ADI
· Fed summit – investors will also be watching for guidance on the economy from the Fed’s annual huddle in Jackson Hole, Wyo., where Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gives the keynote address Friday. CNBC
· Options expiration Friday
· Credit cards – recently passed credit card legislation is set to go into effect Aug. 20
· Treasury sales – the Treasury will announce on Thurs Aug 20 the size of its next coupon sales (it will be selling 2s on Tues Aug 25, 5s on Wed Aug 26, 7s on Thurs Aug 27).
· Fed’s Treasury purchase schedule – next update due Aug 19; the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Open Market Trading Desk will gradually reduce both the size of individual operations and the frequency of operations, beginning with the two-week schedule to be released on Wednesday, August 19, 2009.
· Brett Favre to sign w/the Vikings later on Tues according to Fox Business (DJ)
August 18th, 2009 at 11:28 amWRES bounced off its 50 day. Up 8% at $2.45, may actually get out of the 2.50 calls there with head partially intact but will take another day like today to manage it. Like PQ back in the day, hard to trade with options but like the common shares I hold through next Spring when I’m looking for a better looking reserve report.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:32 amAnd now for something both obvious and suspect in nature from the IMF:
The global recession is over and a recovery has begun, Olivier Blanchard, the top economist for the International Monetary Fund, said Tuesday. “The turnaround will not be simple,” Blancard wrote in an article released by the IMF. “The crisis has left deep scars, which will affect both supply and demand for many years to come.” Growth is coming for most countries, he said, but it won’t be strong enough to reduce unemployment for a while. Potential output may have been permanently reduced. Growth is still highly dependent on government stimulus from fiscal and monetary policies. Sustaining growth “will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries,” he said.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:36 amWeekly chart of the WRES chart is pretty interest, especially if you overlay with oil.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:38 amBrett Favre, Michael Jackson, Britney Spears, BradJolina, et al what is it that I’m missing here.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:40 amadding to 79:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=WRES#chart2:symbol=wres;range=2y;compare=uso;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
August 18th, 2009 at 11:42 amThe CLR trade from yesterday is up 36%, fair warning.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:51 amReef – did you work out the implied $ per Mcf on that China LNG deal in the post today? I did and thought my math must be wrong.
2.25 million metric tons
August 18th, 2009 at 11:58 amconverts to billion cubic meters at 0.73
=
1.6425 billion cubic meters
converts to BCF at 35.3
=
57.98 Bcf per year
=
1159 Bcf over 20 years
For $41 billion U.S.
That’s $35 per Mcf
From one of my two Cross-asset class strategists. The bond mrkt has done the heavy lifting (of balance sheets)… it’s up to the company’s performances (income statements) to take equity valuations higher from here.
To repeat what I said at the beginning of June (or so), my work here is done. We aren’t going back to the abyss. But, we have to find out what the “New Normal” looks like and then pick our investment points. Just a few thoughts…
http://www.capmarkets.com/ViewFile.asp?ID1=122306&ID2=345688089&ssid=1&directory=6571&bm=0&filename=08.18.09_The_Rally_and_the_Leadership_Change.pdf
August 18th, 2009 at 12:21 pm>That’s $35 per Mcf
That cant be right can it??
Why dont we build a lng export facility and ship all our ng away from the us
August 18th, 2009 at 12:22 pmBill – I thought in the wee hours of the morning that I’d slipped a decimal, that it was 3.50 an Mcf. So I didn’t put the pricing in the bullet at the beginning of the post. But my conversions have held up through noon.
I could see higher than $3.50 by a long shot for 20 years of price escalations. It does not include a chunk of the project itself which is bigger at a total capacity of 15 mm ton per year. I’m sure China will buy more of that production when it comes on line. They use gas to make things like ethylene which they then sell to the U.S. in the form of toys and other plastic items.
August 18th, 2009 at 12:26 pmFSLR really not liking the news
August 18th, 2009 at 12:39 pmGaamblor – I know, just don’t see why. Maybe they thought the date on it was a slow start (2012). Also, no $ figure attached may be off putting.
I saw Wedbush come with an outperform and $190 target … and no one cared.
August 18th, 2009 at 12:41 pmhow come we do not export lng?
August 18th, 2009 at 12:42 pmz, do you have any idea approx how much revenue this would be for fslr?
August 18th, 2009 at 12:44 pmBill – we do. A minimal amount goes to Japan each month. But for the most part 4 LNG receiving facilities have accounted for the bulk of imports to the U.S. for the last 20 something years. These facilities have been recently expanded and some new ones have been added such that current intake capacity is over 10 Bcfgpd. The reason for this is that up until the last couple of years supply and demand were fairly well balanced when Canada was taken into account with LNG being the swing fill on the equation. Gas was not as “easy” to find as it now appears to be. Although we are drilling less quality reservoir rock, the gas in place in the shales is high and so supply is simply a function of application of capital and not exploratory acumen. With that said, you are now seeing the LNG receiving stations apply and receive licenses to export gas. The Sabine facility just received a license to “re-export” gas in June and others have made applications, I think with FERC, to install liquefaction trains (using the same port facility that they normally would receive LNG from abroad to send LNG out through).
August 18th, 2009 at 12:48 pmBill – the easier thing to do would be to tell Canada to keep their gas.
August 18th, 2009 at 12:49 pm68.79/3.128= 21.99….
August 18th, 2009 at 12:55 pmreef, isn’t the respective strip ratio more relevant?
August 18th, 2009 at 12:57 pm22.03- z and bop you guys got it right
August 18th, 2009 at 12:58 pmLittle fly-by here. Haven’t read anything for a couple days, been dealing with city hall. (Please, please, please pass public health care so that everybody who loves the move to socialism can have a first hand account of what it’s like to actually work with government red tape. Then we will finally get an end to this nonsense.)
CLR update
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2933882
August 18th, 2009 at 12:59 pm94, no doubt! this current dislocation is temporary.
August 18th, 2009 at 1:00 pmCanada is doing just that
http://www.kitimatlng.com/code/navigate.asp?Id=32
August 18th, 2009 at 1:02 pmGaam – re 90, not yet. Its more than the simple cost of watts by size of the facilities. I’d just be guessing given the different scale vs past deals. Am trying to find out.
August 18th, 2009 at 1:05 pmEOG has signed on to the Kitimat deal as well.
August 18th, 2009 at 1:05 pmz – u think if we have big draw in gasoline stocks, that helps refiners?
August 18th, 2009 at 1:07 pmKyle – I think if we have a big draw in gasoline it helps gasoline prices, then oil, then the energy stocks in that order. The refiners would get a temporary boost out of it. Given their depressed nature and unwillingness to fall when I have puts on I’d guess at a 5% move in the big names. That fear was enough to prompt me to kill off my VLO puts yesterday.
August 18th, 2009 at 1:13 pmOil up $2.70 and flying higher. Hmmm.
GM ups capacity for 3Q and 4Q. UAW sees 1,350 jobs reinstated.
August 18th, 2009 at 1:19 pmRe 103 – so, does anyone else smell Cash For Clunkers Volume 3 in say, October?
August 18th, 2009 at 1:21 pmZTRADE:
CLR – Sold the $35 August calls (CLRHG) taken yesterday for $0.75, up 104%. I continue to hold the $40 strike Septembers here.
August 18th, 2009 at 1:23 pm#104 – i think that is a given.
Does anyone else think we are merely borrowing from future auto sales to the point that once GM gets production back up over 0 that all of a sudden new auto sales will fall off again?
August 18th, 2009 at 1:25 pmYes – and the cost will be my kids paying interest on an infinite car loan for some other guy’s car.
August 18th, 2009 at 1:27 pmhey Z is CLR still a good buy here on the sept 35or 40’s after todays jump?
August 18th, 2009 at 1:32 pmJoel – I’m continuing to hold my $40s and will add some September $35s if oil holds up here through next week. A little nervous about the market, not the name so am not adding at this time.
August 18th, 2009 at 1:35 pmNG closed down 6 cents, it’s ninth consecutive loss.
August 18th, 2009 at 1:37 pmThanks Tater
August 18th, 2009 at 1:41 pmHeadlines — “GM INCREASING NORTH AMERICAN PRODUCTION, REINSTATES 1,350 JOBS”
Yes. “Cash for Clunkers” will continue. Because the President went out on a limb to nationalize GM and save the UAW’s influence and control. So, getting people to BUY CARS directly benefits a company that the US President owns and will buy him support.
Oh yeah… and it also pulls forward sales from the future and leaves our little ones with the consumption debt to pay off.
Why economists aren’t talking about this… i don’t know. Guess it’s b/c people LOVE free money. And politicians know nothing, if they don’t know how to buy votes. And — no mistake about it — this is all about “buying votes.”
August 18th, 2009 at 1:49 pmBOP – I really think they should put those little “paid for by” signs on the Cash for Clunkers cars. You know, like the ones used at the highway construction sites. Your tax dollars busily announcing what your tax dollars are doing.
August 18th, 2009 at 1:56 pmPeople who DON’T have clunkers are getting mad.
This thing is outta control, if you ask me. It was stupid to begin with (more monetization of the LAST asset this country has, our tax base)… and it just gets stupider all the time.
rant over.
August 18th, 2009 at 1:59 pmHey Ram, as to your question this morning, just got sent this from Accuweather on Ana … they say it could reorg.
http://www.accuweather.com/regional-news-story.asp?region=southusnews
August 18th, 2009 at 2:03 pmNat gas bears: just listened to EVEP conf. call replay. They (John Walker) thinks gas is going to be under $2.00 and the longer it stays up into Sept the lower it will go. They passed on longer term price estimate. Mentioned they expect to buy conventional assets in shale areas very cheaply, mentionin Cotton valley in east TX ex. Haynesville, and the Permian.
August 18th, 2009 at 2:03 pmI have trouble believing stocks have discounted $2.00 gas.
No, it will not reorg.!
August 18th, 2009 at 2:06 pmRMD – they haven’t but I don’t believe gas will go sub $2 and I don’t think it will be sub $3 for any length of time.
How hedged is EVEP now? I find that the more hedged you are the lower you think gas will go and vice versa. I also think that those who are well hedged and live by buying assets low and producing them and then selling them when prices are high, something LINE does well, tends to shade your thinking on prices.
August 18th, 2009 at 2:06 pmEVEP 85-90% hedged in 2H09, 75% in ’10, 70% in ’11, 25% in ’13 on todays (preacquisition) production. Bank line limits hedges to 90% of proved developed producing.
August 18th, 2009 at 2:17 pmAnother tidbit; said only the Austin Chalk of the 8 basins they are in meets their risk-adjusted IRR hurdle of 20% before hedging.
RMD – thanks. I assume they meant on the current strip. That’s an odd statement. Lots of people talking about 20% IRRs at current prices in the Hayensville, EFS, Granite Wash, somebody said that about Pinedale (have to assume the center), parts of the core Barnett and the Marcellus. I don’t follow them actively, but I bet they aren’t the cheapest operator in town, eh?
August 18th, 2009 at 2:20 pmThat’s me bidding for a little more of the HK $22 so if anybody wants to hit me there I am.
August 18th, 2009 at 2:21 pmKOG CFO out with a Form 4. He sold 4,000 shares yesterday. As CFO, you have to ask yourself if the $5,000 or so is worth that headline.
Usually, the answer is no. Wonder if it was a charitable contribution? Nah… you only donate APPRECIATED stock in that case.
Weird.
August 18th, 2009 at 2:23 pmThanks.
ZTRADE:
Added (10) more HK August $22 Calls (HKHS) for $0.40 with the stock at $21.82, up a little over 1%. Obviously risky with expiration later this week.
August 18th, 2009 at 2:24 pmBOP – it hasn’t hit sec.gov yet. What’s his remaining stake?
August 18th, 2009 at 2:26 pm… and did he just get them as a grant and flip them?
August 18th, 2009 at 2:26 pmI have to see a man about a dog after the close. Would someone please post the API numbers when they come out? Thanks.
Ram – you crack me up.
August 18th, 2009 at 2:27 pmonly 27k shares
August 18th, 2009 at 2:28 pmKOG — either the CFO is one Nervous Nelly, or a record-setting Cheapskate, or he has a mistress and second family to support.
That is just stupid to sell 4k shares as a senior officer of a publicly-traded company.
August 18th, 2009 at 2:30 pmBop – those were free back from May of 2008. That is kind of weird. And he has less stake in it than some of us here as stocks go.
August 18th, 2009 at 2:32 pmyeah… weird. I stick by my reasons in #128 above.
August 18th, 2009 at 2:33 pmWhat about the upcoming September mortgage?
August 18th, 2009 at 2:39 pmfor the wife? or for the mistress??
August 18th, 2009 at 2:40 pmCFO’s are too busy keeping their respective companies afloat to have a side honey.
August 18th, 2009 at 2:42 pmhmmm… or maybe just too nerdy?
Nah… it’s always the quiet, nerdy ones who surprise you. 😉
August 18th, 2009 at 2:44 pmBeerthirty
August 18th, 2009 at 2:46 pmLOL…. just got the answer on the KOG CFO. It’s a combination of explanation 1 and 2.
ram, you’re right. He’s not the type to have a side honey.
August 18th, 2009 at 2:48 pmCatching up here. Has anyone noticed that in KOG new presentation, http://www.kodiakog.com/pdf/KOG-August2009.pdf, that on page 12 . That they have new information on “What this could possibly mean” concerning EURs and have included TFS at 400k per 640 ac location with possible 27 locations and possible 9 mmbo reserves. They have a very optimistic Bakken % prespective at 90% X 35k ac/640 ac spacing for 50 locations at 600,000 EUR X .82 = 25 mmbo. Pretty, Pretty optimistic #s. It would seem that they think all of their play is real good.
August 18th, 2009 at 2:49 pmWest — good catch. What a coincidence… was just talking to another KOG owner who was saying the new presentation is worth going through. Thanks for pointing out the bottom line.
z — care to take those assumptions and run them through your model???
August 18th, 2009 at 2:52 pmKOG director Knutson reported sale of 48,250 shs at around $1.22. Has 200k shs left. Date of sale 8/14
August 18th, 2009 at 2:58 pmjohn11 — now this is getting really irritating!
August 18th, 2009 at 3:00 pmSomebody had 150k shares to sell in the last 5 minutes and sold 100k. I hope they weren’t on the board.
August 18th, 2009 at 3:04 pmHope it wasn’t Lynn.
I mean, it was only last May, when KOG had to go around, hat in hand, to raise money. HATE to see this kind of insider selling, so soon after raising outside money. It really irritates me!
August 18th, 2009 at 3:07 pmThanks for pointing that out west.
I’ll run it my way and theirs. I’d like to see them start their EURs lower and walk them up over time. 600,000 barrels (I assume that’s BOE and not just the BBs is not exactly conservative at this point in the game). The acreage perspective at 90% drives a lot of locations. I don’t mind the spacing so much and that could actually be better but the 90% leaves me a bit cold. Why say that now? Why not walk it up there as wells are drilled across the acreage.
August 18th, 2009 at 3:15 pmMy guess is its a director. They sell in packs.
August 18th, 2009 at 3:18 pmThe assumptions in KOG’s presentation make it seem like more of a marketing presentation than before. We know they are going to have to raise money at some point, to fund 2010 drilling… but we also know they are open to combining with a larger entity.
Insider selling points to a higher probabiilty of the former, than the latter.
August 18th, 2009 at 3:23 pmAPI
crude -6134k
August 18th, 2009 at 3:31 pmgasoline -847k
distillate 1529k
bop – re KOG just when things were really looking good we run into insider selling are we missing something??
August 18th, 2009 at 3:33 pmAfternoon all. Wow that API must have been unexpected.
August 18th, 2009 at 3:46 pmTA wise I expect this oil move to run out of steam. Don’t really want to see it much above 70.40 however for the bearish count to play out.
Broader market ‘should’ roll over too. Move up today looks very corrective.
August 18th, 2009 at 3:50 pmI think nat gas has finally made a lower low. It can turn up now if its listening!
August 18th, 2009 at 3:51 pmZ – are those API numbers seriously that bullish? We are awash with crude and the gas and distillate numbers were better than your early read.
August 18th, 2009 at 3:53 pmkyleandy — on KOG, i don’t think we are missing anything. But I’ll see if I can get some inside explanation for the insider selling.
So soon after raising outside capital is not cool, in my book.
August 18th, 2009 at 4:12 pmThat API crude draw of -6.134mm barrels looks weird. Especially as expectations for tomorrow’s DOE Crude Inventories is +1.2mm.
August 18th, 2009 at 4:14 pmDoes anyone have a oil futures quote for z?
He is sitting in the doctor’s office and they are playing soap re-runs on the TV. Apparently, he can’t convince the 300-lb woman to change the channel to CNBC…
August 18th, 2009 at 4:16 pmre 154 – that is too funny!. I just emailed him – price is around 70.27.
August 18th, 2009 at 4:20 pmHeadTrader is sticking around late… he said the oil futures closed at $69.19… but he said it looks weird, as it dropped about a buck, just as it closed. CL1 was trading at 70.15, just before close.
August 18th, 2009 at 4:23 pmthanks, Nicky. I don’t get real-time on energy stuff.
August 18th, 2009 at 4:24 pmU.S. Markets Wrap: Stocks, Oil Advance as Target Tops Estimates
2009-08-18 21:25:54.135 GMT
By Kayla Carrick and Stuart Wallace
Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, helping global equities rebound from the worst drop since April, following better-than-estimated earnings at Home Depot Inc. and Target Corp. Crude oil rose for the first time in three days, while Treasuries and the dollar fell.
The MSCI World Index added 1.1 percent at 4:05 p.m. in New York, with 20 of 23 developed markets advancing. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 1 percent to 989.67 as financial, commodity and technology companies led gains.
“This is a bull market, and it will continue to do OK,”
said Craig Hodges, a fund manager at Dallas-based Hodges Capital Management Inc., which oversees about $750 million. “There are necessary corrections you need in order for it to stay healthy.
It’s a tug of war.”
The advance in equities today restored less than half of yesterday’s 2.8 percent slump in the MSCI World Index. The global benchmark index has rallied 52 percent from a 13-year low in March on speculation the worst of the global recession is over. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 82.6 points, or
0.9 percent, to 9,217.94 today. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index added 1.3 percent after German investor confidence increased.
Home Depot, the largest home-improvement retailer, added
3.1 percent to $26.93 to help lead the gain in the Dow industrials. The world’s largest home-improvement chain said second-quarter profit, excluding costs to close the company’s Expo business, was 67 cents a share. That beat the average estimate of 59 cents in a Bloomberg survey.
Target Jumps
Target rallied 7.6 percent to $44.32. Second-quarter net income declined to $594 million, or 79 cents a share, from $634 million, or 82 cents a share, a year earlier. Analysts estimated profit excluding some items of 66 cents, the average in a Bloomberg survey.
Per-share earnings topped analysts’ estimates by 10 percent on average for the 471 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results since June 17, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Profits slumped about 29 percent in the period, a record eighth straight quarter of falling earnings.
“There’s some room to the upside for companies if people get excited about the prospects for growth over the next couple of months, which I think they will,” said Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners, in an interview on Bloomberg Radio.
European Shares Rally
American Express Co. advanced the most in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, adding 4.3 percent to $31.69. The biggest U.S. credit-card issuer by purchases was upgraded to “outperform” by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc., which cited “improving trends in credit.”
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. rallied 2.1 percent to $160.48.
The company, which was the biggest U.S. securities firm before converting to a bank last year, was raised to “buy” from “neutral” at Pali Capital Inc.
European shares rallied after the ZEW Center for European Economic Research’s index of German investor and analyst expectations rose to 56.1 in August from 39.5 in July, exceeding the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey for a reading of 45.
Crude oil rose for the first time in three days, surging the most this month, as the dollar dropped against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities.
Oil Rises
“Oil is rising today because stocks are up and the dollar is a little weaker,” said Stephen Schork, president of consultant Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “This market is getting smacked around a lot. It’s following what’s occurring elsewhere.”
Crude oil for September delivery increased $2.44, or 3.7 percent, to settle at $69.19 a barrel at 2:44 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the biggest gain since July 31.
Oil has advanced 55 percent this year.
Treasuries fell for the first time in four days after single-family home starts rose in July for a fifth month, indicating further stabilization in the housing industry.
Ten-year note yields rose from near the lowest levels in almost four weeks as single-family home starts increased 1.7 percent from June to a 490,000 annual pace. Producer prices fell
0.9 percent in July, more than forecast, capping the biggest 12- month drop on record.
‘Pendulum Swinging Back’
“Treasuries may have been rich after the recent rally and once the stock market started taking off at some point it was going to start weighing on Treasuries,” said Suvrat Prakash, an interest-rate strategist in New York at BNP Paribas Securities Corp., one of the 18 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve. “The pendulum is swinging back to stocks.”
The yield on the 10-year note rose five basis points, or
0.05 percentage point, to 3.52 percent at 4:16 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The 3.625 percent security maturing in August 2019 fell 3/8, or $3.75 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 7/8.
Yields touched 3.46 percent yesterday, a level not seen since July 22, as the decline in stocks spurred investors toward the relative safety of U.S. debt.
The dollar fell against the euro for the first time in three days as the increase in German investor confidence added to evidence a global economic recovery is taking shape.
Dollar Drops
The pound increased from near a one-month low versus the dollar after a report showed the U.K. inflation rate was higher in July than economists forecast as the nation’s recession eased. The dollar and yen declined against major counterparts including the South African rand as stocks and commodities advanced, reducing demand for relative safety.
August 18th, 2009 at 4:30 pm“Economic growth looks better, and capital flows into commodity-sensitive currencies,” said Warren Naphtal, who oversees $870 million in assets as the chief investment officer at P/E Investments in Weston, Massachusetts. “For the flight- to-quality trade to be taken to the next level, you really need very negative news.”
Europe’s currency increased 0.6 percent to 133.86 yen at
4:25 p.m. in New York, from 133.08 yesterday. The euro appreciated 0.3 percent to $1.4127 after touching $1.4046 yesterday, the lowest level since July 30. The yen weakened 0.3 percent to 94.74 per dollar, from 94.50 yesterday, when it reached 94.21, the strongest level since July 29.
the funniest thing of all is if he had been able to switch on cnbc he would have seen that idiot Terranova talk about nat gas going to 2.0!
August 18th, 2009 at 4:32 pmNicky — LOL!!
Well… i guess if you’re going to have a heart attack, sitting in a doctor’s waiting room isn’t a bad place to be.
😉
August 18th, 2009 at 4:36 pmre 160 – LOL! Can you imagine they would have had to resuscitate him!
August 18th, 2009 at 4:48 pmThanks for the color on prices, oil hanging out at 70.25 now. You just about had to have a big fall in imports for that to happen, especially with a flat to down refining utilization. If refiners ticked up, this could be masking an uptick in gasoline demand I’m looking for in the report for tomorrow.
Given the size of the move in crude today relative to the small ups for the market and the small down for the dollar you have to wonder about the integrity of the API data room.
August 18th, 2009 at 5:28 pmFree one time access to Bob Prechters “Theororist”
http://www.elliottwave.com/club/free-theorist/default.aspx?code=34720
August 18th, 2009 at 8:29 pmThanks Wyoming
August 18th, 2009 at 8:31 pmhttp://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/6576402.html
August 18th, 2009 at 8:37 pmde nada
August 18th, 2009 at 8:39 pmAlmost looks like Ana is trying to recenter south of Cuba.
Be sure to click animate:
August 18th, 2009 at 9:05 pmhttp://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/mcidas/mcidas_atlantic.html
http://www.investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=16083&mn=4900&pt=msg&mid=7767949
there are “aspects of Qatar LNG that make it extraordinarily competitive.” What might they be? Consider this: ExxonMobil and its partners could give away the LNG for free and still make a profit. The secret is that gas is only half the revenue story here.
The stream of hydrocarbons that gushes from the North Field is “wet”–laden with larger molecules like propane and butane that don’t need such extreme treatment to be liquefied. The wells that feed the megatrains give up some 300,000 barrels a day of these so-called liquids. At current prices the liquids will generate revenue of $5.8 billion a year. Compare that with $6.8 billion in revenue from the gas. But the cost of moving the methane (capital investment, liquefaction, shipping and regasification) is high: $3.3 billion a year. Producing the liquids costs only $350 million a year.
After paying royalties to the Qatari government of 40% on LNG and 18% on the liquids, the joint venture ends up with a pretax profit of $2.2 billion on LNG and $4.7 billion on the liquids. ExxonMobil’s 30% share comes to $2 billion a year. “They can afford to undercut everybody,” says Gavin Law, a consultant at Wood Mackenzie in the U.K.
August 18th, 2009 at 9:51 pmgreat article
http://www.investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=16083&mn=4902&pt=msg&mid=7768490
According to Mr. Berman, “If every operator in the Barnett Shale was hedged at a netback gas price of $8/Mcf, only 31% of horizontal wells would break even or make money. At $6/Mcf, only 15% of wells would reach this commercial threshold.” Does this analysis suggest that many of the gas producers are deluding themselves about how successful they are progressing in developing gas shales? Will the new gas-shale plays really have better economics? Are producers who suggest they have superior acreage positions and better technology really exceptional? Maybe they are all citizens of Garrison Keillor’s Lake Wobegon where everyone is “above average.”
August 19th, 2009 at 7:07 am