01
Aug

Wrap – Week Ended 07/31/09

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Holdings Watch:

  • $10KP :
    • $29,400
    • 32% Cash - expect to see this rise this week
    • The Holdings Wiki tab is updated.
    • The $10KP positions page will be updated for Monday

Closed Trades Last Week:

  • NFX - sold the (20) August $40 Calls (NFXHH) for $1.85, up 67% since entry last week. Still holding the $35s. Market is very indecisive and in my book, the near term easy money was made here last week when we got the earnings beat we were looking for. Hats off to the NFX team. The name is still cheap and I’m likely to reposition on a pullback.

  • NFX - sold the remaining NFX $35 August calls (NFXHG), for $5.40, up 148%. I will reposition on a group wide pullback.

  • WLL - Sold half of my August $45 calls (WLLHI) for $2.50, up 94%. Continuing to play the remainder essentially with house money after the stock also reported a beat. Continuing to hold the higher strike September calls as well.


Good Questions From A New Subscriber Watch:

"do I just scan the posts on a given day to see what your trades may be?"
 

Trades are listed in the comments at the bottom of the daily post and headed with ZTRADE, they are also emailed to you when they occur, and listed in the Holdings Watch section in the next day's post. 

"Is there somewhere else on the site they are posted where they can be quickly located?"
 

They are located on the ZEB Holdings Wiki Tab on the left hand column of the site updated daily and on the $10KP updated weekly which gives a little more detail including costs and number of contracts.

"How does one get email notifications of buys and sells?"
 

Your account was signed up to receive ZBLASTs when you subscribed.

 

"Also, how many trades do you generally make in a month?"
 

30+

"It seems you're playing with a relatively small portfolio or is the $10KP portfolio just what you expose on the site but do a lot of other things as well?"

The $10KP was set up because people wanted to see what I'd do with $10,000. It began last October. I do trades outside the $10KP, more in stocks but also in options. I've added the stock holdings to the bottom of the Wiki tab. I don't give position sizes there as I don't think it has much relevance. I generally do not trade the stocks much but am holding for the long term. Lastly, please know that I do not make recommendations but simply tell people what I'm doing and why.

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On To The Wrap ...

1) Equity Markets. Nothing to see here, move along. Lackluster trading trading volumes highlighted an otherwise unremarkable week. The service names underperformed other energy sectors but given the year they have and the continued state of denial about their immediate and medium term prospects on the part of analysts I continue to trade only opportunistically there. We do have some puts in the group as well and despite getting the earnings miss I was looking for, that particular name remains in line with levels from before the earnings release.

2) Oil Reversed. On Wednesday I commented that the market would likely forgive the large build in crude in that day's inventory report. By Friday it had reverse the mid week drop and closed the week at a four week high as the dollar plummeted and the economy, at least according to the official numbers showed signs of limping towards the beginnings of a recovery in the second half.

3) Rig Count Watch. Two weeks of slightly up counts. Few are expecting a V-shaped recovery. And fewer still, myself in this group, expect a resumption of the downward trend, especially on the natural gas directed side in the near term. Storage will likely drive gas on gas competition later this month and in September leading to a probable test of the $3 mark.

 

 

6 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 07/31/09”

  1. 1
    statman0 Says:

    Z – I’ve appreciated your advice already as an early postion in HK has paid off well over the last week.

    Also, you make a good case for nat gas heading toward $3.00 or lower. It makes me wonder why you haven’t shorted NG directly via the UNG puts or something similar to help hedge your long positions on $10KP. I wouldn’t want to do anything that you wouldn’t do. Am I missing something?

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Stat – It’s a good question, will address in the Monday post.

  3. 3
    VTZ Says:

    Dollar index pierced 78.30. Needs to close below to confirm bearishness.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Roger that V, oil is over $70 tonight.

  5. 5
    VTZ Says:

    Yeah still rallying nicely.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=aTALl3bl.Ewo

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    SU / Petro Can deal done.

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