AA Thursday – Natural Gas Preview and Oil Review

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 Sentiment Watch: Temporary Euphoria.

  1. (AA) loses less money than expected
  2. Jobless claims fall to 568,000, the first sub 600,000 number in recent memory (continuing claims hit a new record but let's not talk about that)


In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Preview
  4. EIA Oil Inventory Review
  5. Stuff We Care About Today
  6. Odds & Ends


Holdings Watch:

  • $10KP:
    • $13,900
    • 63% Cash
    • The Wiki Tab is updated

Yesterday's Trades: Added more oil exposure.

  • CLR - Added (10) June $25 Calls (CLRGE) for $0.65. This unhedged, oily name has traded off from $33 to $23 in the last month and is probably due a bit of a bounce although its below its 200 day average since Thursday.
  • EOG - Added 1 July $55 call (EOGGK) for $6 with the stock at $60.70. Oil and the group and EOG have fallen into the “too far, too fast” decline camp. Am probably going to slowly build a position here.


Commodity Watch:

Crude oil fell $2.79 to close at $60.14 yesterday after the EIA released a less than inspiring inventory report (see details below). Part of the trouble with the report was caused by an often overlooked gasoline imports numbers which turned what would have been better than expected numbers into disappointing ones. Crude is now off 16% in the last 6 days. It feels like a bit of "too far, too fast action" at this point. This morning crude is trading up about a buck this morning with high equity futures.

  • Nigeria Watch: AGIP confirmed another 24,000 bopd of lost production from Wednesday's attacks, bringing the 6 week total to 300,000 bopd of cut production attributable to attacks on AGIP, Shell, and Chevron.

Natural gas fell with oil closing off $0.08 at $3.35 yesterday. This morning gas is trading up a dime with the move in the markets but prior to the weekly storage report.

  • LNG Watch: CNOOC approved a fourth LNG regassification plant now slated for completion in 2012. In future years, when people ask what happened to that tsunami of natural gas that was supposed to hit the U.S. you can tell them that it landed on Chinese shores and was sold back to the U.S. in the form of plolyethelne toys and lawnchairs.  I do expect to see a rally in LNG volumes later this year but for now, LNG continues to be a no show at 1.3 Bcfgpd is barely up from the demand crazed days of last year and well below 2007 levels. 

Natural Gas Preview

  • My number: 85 to 90 Bcf injection
    • History:
      • Last Week: 70 Bcf
      • Last Year: 89 Bcf
      • 5 Year Average: 95 Bcf
    • Weather: milder, especially in the northeast.
    • Imports: up 0.8 Bcfgpd from the prior week
  • Street Consensus: 85 Bcf

ZComment: The last two storage reports came in better than expected (smaller injections). Gas didn't seem to notice, falling sharply with oil and the markets and is down mid double digit teens in the last two weeks and teetering on lows not seen since 2002 on the front month contract. My sense is that gas will continue to trade in range bound fashion in the $3.25 to $4.25 range (yep, that wide) as low prices beget short covering as a new wave of rig stacking is contemplated by the large and mid cap E&Ps (the little guys and privates are already twiddling their thumbs at this point). Prices will spike on heat (we are supposed to get a heat wave next week) and tropical action (look for that to pick up by month's end).

EIA Oil Inventory Review

CRUDE OIL - In Line headline number on inventories; utilization remains subdued for the time of year but lofty relative to 2009 to date. Imports remain lowish and inventories continue to slowly retreat.

Utilization and inputs: Refinery inputs are running nearly half a million bopd light to year ago levels and are unlikely to move much if any higher for the rest of the year. Seasonally, they should back off soon, and given where product inventory levels are I would expect them to be a bit quicker than usual above moving into maintenance mode this fall.  

Crude Imports - Year to date imports are off 460,000 bopd. Holding all other things equal (refinery input demand for instance) U.S. crude stocks would be 87 million barrels higher than they are now using year ago import levels, easily an all time record.



GASOLINE - Demand improved slightly on the weak but the trend is still poor here. A surprise pop in imports led to a bigger than expected build in finished gasoline inventories. These "import rallies" generally don't see multiple consecutive weeks of builds.  Gasoline stocks remain near the average for this time of year.


DISTILLATES - Demand for diesel and jet fuel remains abysmal; if anything showing signs of getting worse.


Stuff We Care About Today

OPEC Watch: OPEC cuts global E&P spending forecast by 30% for 2009 to 2013. "The estimated OPEC upstream investment requirement for the medium-term over the period 2009-2013 has fallen from $165 billion to around $110-$120 billion." Not great news for interenational, diversified service names. 

GST NAV Snapshot

A couple of follow up comments to the table above:

  • First, it's very back of the envelope, a lot of judgement calls on my part, especially on undeveloped reserve potential valuation. I went very conservative on the metrics but at the same time, kept an eye on the per acre prices, especially wanting to keep the Marcellus number from getting out of whack.
  • This is pretty much a takeout price under the current pricing environment (sub $4 gas). In a takeout, I'd bet I'm within 50 cents either side of the bid, however, I don't see them getting taken out soon as the M&A environment for whole co's has not picked up yet and won't until we see some more certainty on natural gas pricing.
  • Companies don't trade at NAV or in this case very back of the envelope valuation; they trade at a steep discount to it until the day they are bought. I just do this to make sure the midget isn't well over valued, which is often trouble.


Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • SocGen starts coverage of Majors CVX, XOM, and COP at Buy, Hold, and Sell respectively
  • APA upped to Outperform at Calyon
  • UBS ups 2009 and 2010 oil price forecast - unfortunately, I only have the headline, not the numbers

Reading Material Watch:

75 Responses to “AA Thursday – Natural Gas Preview and Oil Review”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Futures backing off a bit from post jobless claims high, especially oil. Going to be a volatile session there.

    Dollar taking another look at 80 with a nearly 1% decline today.

    The dearth of energy news continues. I did see a very small deal out of EOG in the Williston but acreage wasn’t given and it probably wouldn’t be representative given the small $ amount of the purchase.

  2. 2
    Dman Says:

    An analysis that seems to support BOP’s inventory rebuild recovery thesis from yesterday:


  3. 3
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Good Morning.

    Conflicting views from TT and HT this morning… so, here goes.

    TechTrader = 60/40 short today.

    HeadTrader = “seems like we should be buying pullbacks after last few days…”

    BAC upgraded GS… this is consistant with our view that 2Q earnings for the larger banks and trading houses will be good.

  4. 4
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Also, our economist pointed out yesterday that jobless claims would be “less than people think”… not b/c employment is better… but b/c of the seasonal adjustments thrown in to account for the seasonal shutdowns in automotive… which already occured… and aren’t so “seasonal” this time around.

  5. 5
    1520sbroad Says:

    BOP – welcome back – hope the trip was good.

    your #4 – i had a very similar conversation with an old friend that said almost the exact same thing. July has some seasonal adjustments for auto plant retooling downtime. I remember faintly in the 2003 market recovery we had a similar big run higher in the market averages into June and then there was a pause into July when some of the leading economic indicators turned slightly more positive and the market got cranked back up again.

    Not sure if you are still following URKA but they announced some decent pricing news while you were away. Put a floor under the potash market to some degree. It was maybe a week or so ago – i am sure some the analysts that cover them commented.

  6. 6
    AAA Says:

    Z, What’a your take on the SG downgrade of COP? Is COP dead money or worse here because of downstream ops?

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    AAA – Hard for me to comment on their reasoning since all I’ve seen is a headline. When I start to look at the Majors of late I simply move on to something else because of world wide depressed cracks and high product inventories. Why they like CVX more than COP? Probably COP’s exposure to U.S. natural gas is putting them off. CVX should have an interim update out very soon (today I think) and I’m a bit surprised SocGen stepped in front of that. Is COP dead money or worse? I think its a tough 12 months for the refining side, but they have a good asset base so if it gets drilled I’ll take a look at least for a trade. They’ve been more interesting in the U.S. than the other two names in terms of upstream but for now they are in the penalty box.

    Market rolling over.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Interesting chart piece:


  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Adding to 7. COP buyers saying “SocGen who?”, up 2.5%.

    Stocks pretty resilient in the face of a sell off in the early gains for both the market and for crude and for crude being on the brink of testing $60.

  10. 10
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    1520s — thank you for your kind words and head’s up on URKA. I don’t think i properly thanked you for looking into that space for me. I greatly appreciated it.

    We just got the Wholesale Inventories number… Street was expecting a drawdown of 1.0%, the report turned in -0.8%. So, a bit more bearish than what was exected. Mrkt dropped just a tad.

    Frankly, mrkt doesn’t know where to go from here… so many balls in the air. We will get more direction next week, when the Big Boys start reporting 2Q. Personally, we believe the bank earnings will be decent. That should help put a floor under fears of returning to SPX 666. Credit market has improved… a lot more to go to get back to the New Normal. But, the stock market can not ignore the improvements in the credit market forever.

  11. 11
    cargocult Says:

    What are we supposed to make of your data on distillates this morning? How do you play this with demand at 10 year lows and inventories at highs?

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    Cargo – There’s no play for me per se based on the distillate data by itself. Maybe good for truckers when things pick up but that’s a side bar.

    I simply see distillate inventories at high levels as something to be mindful of as we approach the heating season next fall. My sense is that distillates will act as a governor on oil prices. I think we are probably in the $70 to $80 range towards the end of the year. So if I see prices edging there, this is something that will curb my enthusiasm for the energy names that have responded to the move higher in crude.

    The second thing is that it acts as a BS meter for the comments I hear about things picking up in the broader economy. I very much doubt things are picking up if trucks aren’t rolling and planes aren’t flying. When I see distillate demand start to solidify I’ll get my bull hat on.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Oil sub $60.

  14. 14
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    headlines — “NY Crude oil falls belwo $60 for first time since May 26”

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    75 Bcf, pretty good number

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    gas was flat, now up 6 + cents. This number took our surplus to the 5 year average back below 20%.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    This is the third better than expected gas number in a row. It is going to start some analysts to thinking that we are starting to see the long awaited rollover in supply.

  18. 18
    Dman Says:

    #12 Yes, I was trying to square up the inventory rebuild economic scenario with the dismal distillate demand, which is presumably be a concurrent indicator of economic activity.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    Cumulative build in storage is now running 1.2 Bcfgpd ahead of the five year average. It had been running 1.8 Bcfgpd in recent weeks. Is this important? Probably not yet but the trend is in the right direction. We had been simply blowing out the injections in early summer, we have heat now and heat is inspiring more demand than the degree day readings would otherwise indicate. Very likely gas is stealing share from coal given how cheap gas is right now.

    Crude back above $60 and green. Hmmm.

  20. 20
    elduque Says:

    Z just bt a slug of UNG for a day trade. I would never have done it without your info.

    Many thanks

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    NG up 12 cents and still rising. SWN reacting with its usual vigor. HK starting to wake up.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    El-d . Good luck. I don’t see it running for more than a couple of days if crude decides to fall into the mid $50s like all the little bobble heads are saying. These are the same dusty bobble heads who said it was going to $20 from $40 only to see it hit $70.

    I will post the gas charts in a link in a few minutes so you can see what I’m babbling about on rate of change in relative injections.

  23. 23
    1520sbroad Says:

    #10 – BOP – no problem. URKA and the rest of the non Americas fertilizer producers are an interesting bunch. Worth keeping on the radar – if for no other reason than they give a good glimpse to the rest of the world market, outside the Americas.

    Diesel and jet fuel comment – could not agree more with #12. Trucking is one of the best economic indicators out there – go sit by the nearest highway for 20 minutes at the same time one day each month and count the trucks that go by – when you start to see more of them than the previous month start to think that maybe – maybe – maybe the recovery has begun.

    My father in law is a pilot for UPS – he said to me the other day that their air freight loads are starting to pick up – he flies back and forth from the West coast to Asia. He did NOT attribute this to an economic recovery of any sort. He said that there are very few cargo haulers still in business other than UPS and FDX. Several big cargo only operators closed up shop in the last 12 months. He thinks UPS is just seeing more business and more loads because there is no other way to get stuff back and forth.

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    1520 – thanks much for that color on UPS. I recall DHL tucking tail several months and remember thinking that when the dust settles UPS and FDX are going to emerge more dominant than before. Could even be some good quarters of outperformance helped along by low fuel costs.

  25. 25
    1520sbroad Says:

    #24 – UPS is one i am watching. The pilots union at UPS also made some big concessions to avoid furloughs and layoffs. Not sure the teamsters will do the same but lower fuel costs will likely provide a huge boost to earnings down the line.

    DHL bailed out of the US i think. Northwest had a big cargo operation and has/is shutting it down. Smaller specialty cargo haulers have planes parked on ramps all over the world.

  26. 26
    della05 Says:

    ZMAN,nice call on the HK options yesterday. When will you start looking at buying August options?

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Della – probably Monday or Tuesday. Watching oil right now with a nervous eye. It is retarding the move in natural gas today.

  28. 28
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Discussion of Jobless Claims and the automotive adjustment.


  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP – those Dow factories by the way almost certainly consume natural gas. Chemicals is the single largest industrial consumer of natural gas…jobs headed over seas it seems.

  30. 30
    choices Says:


    Does not appear that Ruth will get the $80 mil “inheritence.”

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    Denise – thanks for the push on Amelia Island, looks like that’s where I’m headed in mid August.

  32. 32
    choices Says:

    Z-I have kept an eye on the deep water drillers, ATW, RIG,DO,NE-they had a strong move (some almost a double) from March lows to early June, fell off, and today are relatively strong-I thought they would track crude but with crude trying to hold $60 in the midst of a correction, what is your view as to immediate future drilling activity and why the sudden strength-as I recall, you mentioned that most if not all had locked in contracts for 09. I like the performance of NE and ATW but not sure about the summer doldrums.

    Thanks-(long winded question)

  33. 33
    choices Says:

    Gold miners up relatively strongly today, with Gold bouncing off $910.

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    re 33 – We’re starting to see some more idle time for the less capable and shallower rigs. ATW has some coming off contract issues ahead of it this year and has had no luck engaging one of its rigs, the Southern Cross since late last year. That’s all well known and in the stock. I like them best on earnings ramp in 2010 and 2011 and getting S. Cross up and running would be additive to 2010 (it should not be in numbers for second half and is not in some of the Street estimates for 2010 now). Just need to get it a gig. I watching the group as well and biding my time, don’t really want to buy on strength as much as I do after a market swoon for these guys. I think they will get a little disfavor from large cap diversified service getting hit in the second half (that OPEC comment about depressed demand for oil for five years and the 30% reduction in international E&P budgets is going to come into play because you can only cut costs so far). The ATW is probably your highest risk, highest reward play in the offshore driller with deepwater exposure play. Just due to its size (lose a rig contract and it is more meaningful than it would be due to a DO or RIG). On the NE, I’m not that up on the story at present. Every time I listen to one of their calls I like what I hear and smart people I know are long term holders. I have never successfully traded those options so instead of attempting it I go with RIG or DO and ATW. Utilization in general offshore continues to creep lower and with new additions to fleets (especially at RIG), you have to be concerned that the days of $600,000 day rates being common place are a ways off, at least until we get into Pickens’ land of $150+ oil.

    Good site you can play around on to watch rates and utilization:


  35. 35
    zman Says:

    Does anyone see Street comments today on SWN, RRC, CHK, DVN, NFX, UPL? Thanks.

    I have an appointment I have to step out to for about an hour. Keep the group green for me.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    If I could get the occasional market update over the next hour that would be grand. Now I’m gone.

  37. 37
    john11 Says:

    I saw this early this morning Z…

    Sterne, Agee initiates APA, APC, CHK, others

    Apache (APA) initiated buy with $83 target
    Anadarko Petroleum (APC) initiated buy with $51 target
    Devon Energy (DVN) initiated buy with $64 target
    EOG Resources (EOG) initiated buy with $79 target
    Newfield Exploration (NFX) initiated buy with $42 target
    Occidental Petroleum (OXY) initiated buy with $79 target
    Southwestern Energy (SWN) initiated buy with $47 target
    XTO Energy (XTO) initiated buy with $43 target
    Chesapeake Energy (CHK) initiated neutral with $20 target
    Noble Energy (NBL) initiated neutral with $60 target
    Range Resources (RRC) initiated neutral with $42 target
    Ultra Petroleum (UPL) initiated neutral with $42 target

  38. 38
    john11 Says:

    Mkt slipping on mediocre auction results,
    Dow off 10
    Oil slips below 60 again

  39. 39
    john11 Says:

    Market recovered, up now, oil back over 60.

  40. 40
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    • SP500 cash near session highs +5pts after a relatively tight 878-886 range this morning; credit & crude hover around the flatline, but the USD comes for sale vs the EUR & GBP. Equities tried to rally at the open, helped by the strong late rally on Wed, decent AA earnings overnight, and June retailer sales that were no worse than expected. However, there was never a ton of buying demand late yesterday or this morning (just like there hasn’t been a ton of selling demand over the last few days). The problem remains for the most part that investors are sitting on their hands and waiting for Q2 earnings before recommitting one way or the other. Credit vacillates along w/stocks midday; IG12 trading down only 1/2bp and HY12 is up just 1/pt. Our futures desk says vol players are reacting to technicals…ie, implieds moved little on the dip from 930-880 in the SPX but once the bottom end of the ~2mo ranged was breached, buyers came out and bid for vol (now that things are moving back up, the bid has subsided). In the SP futures, look for buy stops near today’s high 884.25 (important resistance)…so far, ESU9 breached minor trend line and holding support near 876.
    • Sectors today: materials and energy are both up ~1.5% on the day (first bounce following steep declines in the last few days) – crude’s bounce and AA’s earnings are helping. Financials also strong (strength across the board – brokers, banks, and insurance). The relative safe groups for sale today, inc. health care (-1.4%), staples (-0.6%), and utilities (-0.5%). Tech slightly outperforming overall, but semis are up >2% and very strong (esp. semi equipment).
    • USD remains for sale, particularly vs a surging EUR and GBP; US$ (DXY) is dwn >1%, the weakest single day showing since June 23. EUR is up >1% vs the greenback and the GBP is up nearly 2%; some citing the BoE decision this morning to keep their asset purchase plan amount unchd (some speculation they would raise it).
    • Crude falls under $60 and continues to come for sale (it had been higher this morning); crude has been down now for 7 consecutive days and is dwn nearly 20% from recent highs. The Baltic Dry index fell again today, hitting a 6wk low.
    • Treasuries: longer maturities are weak today, hurt by the better jobless claims # and the BOE announcement from today (it didn’t raise its asset purchase size, which pressured not only gilts but also US Treasuries); market looking forward to the 30yr auction later today (this will be the last coupon auction until the end of Jul). 10yr yields up ~8bp today. 2s are flat on the day.
    • Same Store Sales on the whole were weak as expected; Off-pricers showed much stronger than expected trends while teen apparel was weaker. Focus now turns to July which will also face pressure (BTS sales tax holidays into August from July and a lack of clearance inventory) but is projected to have better weather.
    • Jobless claims takeaways from our eco team (M. Feroli): Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims fell 52,000 to 565,000 last week, the lowest weekly reading since early January. The good news on initial claims is significantly tempered after one takes account of the seasonal distortions. The seasonal factor for last week looked for a big jump in initial claims as the annual retooling of auto factories leads to a surge in initial claims by autoworkers. Because many of those autoworkers have already been filing for unemployment benefits over the prior several weeks, the seasonal factors were looking for a big jump in new filings that mostly didn’t materialize. Thus, the seasonal factors were looking for an increase in around 70,000 new jobless filings last week, whereas on a non-seasonally adjusted basis initial claims “only” increased by 18,000, leading to a big drop in seasonally adjusted initial claims.
    • Hedge fund performance update: a bunch of market research firms are reporting on June HF performance #s. From Credit Suisse: “Following May’s strong performance of 4.06%, June appeared to be a consolidation month for hedge funds with returns of 0.48%, with credit-oriented managers generally outperforming directional, event driven and tactical strategies. While returns were limited for certain strategies, many were able to retain profits gained earlier this year.” Note that the Credit Suisse HF performance index is showing funds on average up 7%+ YTD, significantly outperforming the market already (and causing funds to preserve their gains w/select selling on strength vs. chasing stocks higher).

  41. 41
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    (I think the last point is key… and why we will just flop around until the end of summer… no one wants to do anything to hurt their performace to date)

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the updates, looks like when I left.

  43. 43
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    can’t get very far in one — or the other — direction …. Welcome to the Summer of Flopping.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Right BOP, much like all Ben Affleck movies after Goodwill Hunting.

  45. 45
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    yeeee-OUCH! Ben wants you to know that STUNG!

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    Nigeria offered amnesty to jailed rebel leader Henry Okah. He took it. If they let him go things are seen cooling down over there. I could see a month or two of relative peace out of it but the government is going to have to come with cash and aid programs pretty soon to keep MEND from blowing things up.

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Buffet gives second stimulus the nod


    I would have liked to see him say because the first one wasn’t actually a stimulus plan but he’s too cool to voice that.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    NOAA declares new El Nino official:


    In general, only the strong el ninos and la ninas are predictive of temperatures. This may be a strong one but it is early to tell. If it were strong by this winter we could expect to see a warmer than normal winter.

  49. 49
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I am baffled by Buffet sometimes. He thinks we all should pay higher taxes too.

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    I’d like to see him answer that question if he were right on the cusp of being “wealthy”, ya know, making $200K per year, lol. Bet he might think higher taxes aren’t so charming then.

  51. 51
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG traded over 2x it’s daily volume of 740k shares yestersay… 1.86mm shares. Clearly, someone hit the “sell” button on the direction of oil prices.

    KOG at 71¢ is too cheap. Next catalyst = earnings call and/or any news about resolving the 2nd Unit Rig obligation of (something like) $5.3mm.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    CHK – Simmons has positive interim update on the company out today. Key points include CHK adding rigs in the Marcellus and the Haynesville at the rate of 1 rig per month going forward, economics still best in Marcellus, well results continue to “outstanding” in Haynesville. They think service costs have probably bottomed down about 50% unless we see LNG tsunami arrive to pressure prices further. Asset monetizations are moving slower than previously thought but moving along nonetheless. I’ve been mulling a return to CHK and after their rather limited ops update last quarter I was thinking that 2Q may be the time.

  53. 53
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — that is why it is so disingenous of Buffett to speak about paying more taxes. The marginal impact on his life would be pretty statistically close to zero.

    It’s like when Courtney Love tells us who we should vote for in a Presidential Election… some opinions are just not appropriate, given the subject matter and where the opinion-giver sits.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Roger that BOP.

    A little surprised by the resilience of the markets today and of crude, making its 10th come back over $60 as we approach the close.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    This one’s for you BOP. Developing countries say no to global warming initiative but U.N. secretary comes up with solution. Wealthier nations should pay for the developing nations to come clean as they come up in the world.


  56. 56
    zman Says:

    Doing a little reading so I’m here if anyone’s got anything on their mind. Boring summer day but boring green beats boring read any day.

  57. 57
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I started ignoring anything the UN said, about 15 yrs ago. Wish more people would do the same.

    You can’t spell “Corruption” without U-N…

  58. 58
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    And don’t even get me started on the Pope’s suggestion that we have a Global Financial Regulator… it’s kinda like Courtney Love telling me who to vote for…

    Sometimes, you just have to ignore ’em.

  59. 59
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    So far, HeadTrader wins / TechTrader loses.

  60. 60
    kyleandy Says:

    bop – didn’t mkt open about up forty. so u have to start there by grading them. i think tt did better!!!

  61. 61
    ram Says:

    Hey, hey, hey, back off the Pope, even though that is a terrible idea.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Poorish close on the broad markets. Beer thirty.

  63. 63
    ram Says:

    I would also say that the TechTrader wins.

  64. 64
    PackMan Says:

    BOP; Buffett, could not agree more.

    It bugs the heck out of me when guys who made their fortunes and sheltered their taxes start telling you what you should do; and give the corrupt and inept politicians cover that “Buffett & Gates” or whoever thinks we should be taxed more.

    At the end of the day, Buffett’s comments are driven by what he thinks are good for Berkshire, including access to the gov’t till, or protection from regulation.

    If Buffett wants to pay more taxes; he should feel free to send extra $$ to the government. You never see these people put their money where their mouths are.

    Nobody is stopping him from voluntarily paying more money to the gov’t to waste, er invest.

  65. 65
    bill Says:


    Buffett is smart enough to know that the govt isn’t very wise in its ability to spend money

    His billion dollar fortune will escape US death taxes as he donated most of it to the Gates charitble foundation

    i think he bought the democrats favor with his support of its tax policies

    recall what spitzer was doing to aig and the other witch hunts.. Geico unit got into problems and its president took the fall not buffet

    why didnt the us prosecutors go after him

    Every thing is political nowadays

    The new democratic cia director say the cia was lying to congress for guess how long..yeah you got it since 2001. When clinton was in charge everything was fine

    Thats is all my rant of the day

  66. 66
    bill Says:

    Drys out with an announcement

    another screw job by the ceo

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    From 7 above:

    “CVX should have an interim update out very soon (today I think) and I’m a bit surprised SocGen stepped in front of that.”

    Interim update out, stock down a buck on the offer.

  68. 68
    choices Says:

    Bill, #66,George Tenent, awarded the Medal of Freedom by Bush, was CIA director under Clinton-who are you going to believe, George Tenent or your lying eyes-heh.

    I would have liked for Spitzer to have spent more intense time on the likes of AIG than on, er, other activities.

  69. 69
    PackMan Says:

    Spitzer was just as corrupt, arrogant, power hungry and politically motivated as all the others. All the settlements he extorted went not to those who were harmed; rather to political beneficiaries of his who were able to pay him back in paving his way to his short lived and disastrous partial term as governor.

  70. 70
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PackMan — just got back… took a nature walk. But, couldn’t agree more about Spitzer. I was at a firm he accused of wrong-doing…. and we had done ABSOLUTELY NOTHING WRONG. But, we were a money management firm… and he KNEW that we couldn’t afford to put our reputation on the line. That said, we tried to defend ourselves… but ultimately gave up in the face of all those false accusations. Guess what the “settlement” was? “Donating” money to Spitzer’s favorite charities.

    In some countries, in a different era, that was called “blackmail.”

  71. 71
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    And — given where the mrkt opened, and then closed — you’re right (kyleandy and ram)… TT did it again!

  72. 72
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    choices — you’re gonna dislike me saying this… but, if Spitzer hadn’t gone after AIG and made it “personal”… AIG (under Hank Greenberg) may well have avoided getting themselves into such a pickle, with an under-supervised subsidiary, bent on writing “insurance policies” on companies/structures about to blow up for very very little premium. He was smarter than that. But Eliot Spitzer went after him like a pack of hyenas after a lion. NOT to say that AIG didn’t make a lot of bad decisions (and got too big to adequately manage). But, Eliot was the stinky little hyena who bit the back leg of the lion, making Hank “deal” with his stinky little games and foresake a stronger management presence at AIG.

    Hopefully, the true history of Spitzer’s sorry Reign of Terror, Intimidation, and Blackmail will be told — and understood — someday.

    rant over

  73. 73
    choices Says:

    I think I can feel the opinion of Spitzer on this board is somewhat less than favorable, aside from his “other activities.”

  74. 74
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    choices — the Media did a good job of putting a White Hat on Spitzer’s head. So, until the “other activity” thing, most people had no idea of what a Bottom Dwelling Scum Sucking Greedy Corrupt Ambitious Stinky Little Hyena he really is.

    People assume (and hope) that all regulators are looking out for good and doing what is right. And most probably are. But, power is corrupting and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Eliot Spitzer is a poster child for that well-worn phrase.

  75. 75
    Wyoming Says:

    In summary:


    I get the impression that you kind of like him?

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