09
Feb

Monday Morning And All Is Feeling Fairly Unstimulated

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The Senate vote has been delayed until Tuesday as has Treasury Secretary Geithner's plans for TARP II. With no economic data this morning I'd expect a fairly boring and tentative day of trading for the broader equity markets.

It's Not The End of the World As We Know It Watch: Japan sees slower than expected decline in orders for machinery.

If you missed the weekly wrap post click here.

 

The Week Ahead

  • Monday - No U.S. economic data today
  • Tuesday - Wholesale inventories, a vote on a slimmer version of the Stimulus Bill in the Senate.
  • Wednesday - EIA Oil Inventory report (10:30am est)
  • Thursday - Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, EIA Natural Gas Inventory report (10:30 am est)
  • Friday - Consumer Sentiment (forecast of 60.5 from last of 61.2)

In Today's Post

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Rig Count Watch - Look out below!
  4. Weekend Mailbag
  5. Earnings Calendar - Week Four
  6. Stuff We Care About Today
  7. Odds & Ends

 Holdings Watch - Friday's $10KP trades: I have the wiki tab and the $10KP page updated a ittle later this morning.

  • Added NFX - (5) FEB $22.50 Calls (NFXBX) for $0.85
  • Added NFX - (5) MAR $25 Calls (NFXCE) for $0.65
  • Added (5) SWN FEB $35 Calls (SWNBG) for $0.65

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil fell nearly 4% last week to close at $40.17. The 12 month strip is now at $51.68 and the March 2010 NYMEX contract is trading at $-57.18 keeping the recent contango firmly intact. The ramifications of that will be continued desired to store or tanker store volumes for later sale. This morning oil is trading up about 50 cents.

  • OPEC Watch: The group next meets in Vienna on March 15 and the President said Friday that the Cartel will take whatever action is necessary at that meeting to balance the market (and boost prices). Iraq's oil minister noted that the group believes a range of $70 to $80 is necessary to cover finding and developing new reserves.

 

  • Oil Rigs In The U.S.

  • U.S. Oil Production. High prices were finally starting to right the ship on U.S. oil production. In 2009 we will see the benefits of new deepwater production developments but low prices will hinder efforts onshore. Net adds from Thunderhorse of 250,000 bopd for a full year will boost U.S. production modestly but announcements by EOG last week of oil production curtailments in the Bakken, a play that largely does not work below $50 (at least for new drilling) will hurt the effort to "get off foreign oil". Note to Congress, you wanted oil prices lower but you should have been careful about what you wish for.

Natural gas rose 8% last week to $4.77. This level is below the economic viability threshold for a majority of producers in the U.S. at the present time. In the near term look for further pressure on service costs. With an exceedingly mild spell in progress I would not expect further exuberance in gas prices this week and if we don't see a return to more winter-like temps soon I would look for new lows in short order. This morning gas is trading slightly on the current tropical weather.

  • Weather Watch: February Warm Up.
    • Last week HDDs fell to 214 from 249 in the prior week. However, this was higher than the forecast of 201 HDD and was 18% above (cooler) than the year ago week.
    • This week's forecast calls for a heat wave. Absolutely disastrous number of 145.

 

Rig Count Watch: The rig count drop is accelerating as capital budgets shrink due to low oil and gas prices. So far now price response for natural gas as it will take time for flush production from last year's frenzied drilling to filter into the government numbers but both (the data and the prices) are coming into more balance in the next couple of month.

Horizontal Count Drop Starting to Pick Up. Many analysts have pointed to the horizontal count as the one area that really needs to fall off to put a floor under gas prices. These are the most prolific wells being drilled yielding the big kahuna IPs so that makes a good deal of sense. The count here is not broken out by oil and gas but you can bet there are both oil and gas wells in last week's 30 rig drop (probably Bakken oil and Barnett gas primarily). Anyway, the fall has started.


The Growth Driver States For Natural Gas Are, Not To Put Too Fine A Point On It, Getting Whacked. Louisiana is in the following chart stack too but this has not been a growth state for gas in quite some time. Click here to refer back to the last natural gas supply update.

Weekend Mailbag - a number of questions over the weekend

1) Mimster90 On LNG Imports ~ In a nutshell, does this article really make sense and will importing LNG affect US Gas prices in 2009 and going forward? The article: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/6239863.html.

Wyoming follow up saying that someone thinks that's the case showing the (LNG) chart as evidence.

Zcomment: There are a number of African and Asian liquefaction plants coming on line in 2009. Much of this volume will be absorbed by new regassification plants in Europe and Japan/Asia. I have not seen the latest numbers on the size of each but a few months back the estimates were heavy on the liquefaction side by about 100 Bcf. Not surprisingly, the EIA's latest short term energy outlook has LNG comments that show most of the gas heading to the U.S.:

U.S. imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are estimated to have totaled about 350 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 2008.  Shipments of LNG to the United States are currently expected to rise to about 420 Bcf in 2009.  However, limits to natural gas storage capacity outside the United States could unexpectedly boost U.S. imports of LNG during the summer months if global demand for natural gas does not increase as expected.  U.S. LNG imports in 2010 are projected to reach a little more than 500 Bcf.

I would point out that these are the same guys who predicted a tsnumi of gas would come to the U.S. for 2008 back in 2007 and subsequently, despite high prices through much of 2008, U.S. LNG imports turned in a near decade low year. Part of the prior prediction was made because of a more than doubling in U.S. regassification capacity. But just because you build it, it does not mean the gas will show up as (LNG), the company, found out. I have little doubt the U.S. will see more LNG imports this year and that it will probably be a number greater than the 70 Bcf increment in the italicized paragraph above. At the same time, I expect a continued reduction in piped volumes from Canada to largely offset these volumes. Speaking of (LNG), they caught a broker upgrade last week as they are about to start receiving contract volumes at their new plant.

2) Z: Always looking for your updated dance card. We are allowed to change our minds. In E&P land my guess is HS 1. HK  2. CHK 3. GMXR. In Bakken 1. EOG then ? ?. Anything like SWN climbing the ladder.? Thanks.  S

ZComment: Close. GMXR, HK, GDP, CHK for the Haynesville and EOG, CLR, WLL for the Bakken.

Earnings Calendar - 4Q08 Week Four: Kind of a lull in energy earnings with a somewhat random mix of companies reporting. In the following two weeks, a majority of the remaining mid and small cap E&Ps will report. 

 

 

Stuff We Care About Today

(RIG) Gets New Deepwater Rig. (RIG)'s backlog of ordered rigs got 1 shorter over the weekend as it took position of the ultra-deep capable Development Driller 3, 7,500 water depth, 37,500 drill depth (upgradeable to 10,000 and 40,000 respectively). This is a harsh environment rig designed for Gomex or North Sea duty originally ordered by Global Sante Fe before the merger.  The rig was originally set for October delivery.

(BP) Is Said To Be Leaning on Service Rates. Story out on Reuters BP is approaching both U.S. and U.K. based oil service names looking for deep cuts in service costs. All of the big cap E&Ps that have reported so far have said they are looking for deep cuts as well. The resilience the OIH names have displayed to date is nothing short of amazing. 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: Barclays trims (NFX) target $3 to $25, (CHK) upgraded by Goldman Sachs (this too is amazing as GS has been on the sidelines on CHK despite a huge gap to their own estimate of NAV for as long as I can remember, (TK) cut to Hold at Jefco.

 

124 Responses to “Monday Morning And All Is Feeling Fairly Unstimulated”

  1. 1
    Sambone Says:

    By Reza Amanat
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    LONDON (Dow Jones)–Crude oil futures edge higher in Europe Monday, supported
    by indications that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may
    adhere more strictly to output quotas. But advances were limited as
    participants remained concerned at persistent weak demand for oil.
    Traders expect prices to glean fresh momentum from a number of key data slated
    for release later in the week, including the U.S. administration’s new
    financial recovery plan, the International Energy Agency’s monthly oil report
    and the U.S. Department of Energy’s crude and products stockpile statistics.
    “In the big picture, oil should be relatively stable and waiting for the
    outcome of the different stimuli/rescue packages from the U.S.,” said Olivier
    Jakob, managing director of consultancy Petromatrix in Switzerland. “The key
    numbers will be delivered Wednesday by the IEA in Paris,” he added.
    At 1254 GMT, the front-month March Brent contract on London’s ICE futures
    exchange was 60 cents higher at $46.81 a barrel.
    The front-month March contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading
    41 cents up at $40.58 a barrel.
    The ICE’s gasoil contract for February delivery was $12.25 higher at $426.75 a
    metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for March delivery was up 100 points at 126.07
    cents a gallon.
    Hinting at the group’s possible determination to meet with its production
    quotas, OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri said Monday that the
    group won’t be making further cuts to production – on top of the 4.2 million
    barrels already agreed since September – until the organization reached full
    compliance with current quotas. He said that the group’s current compliance
    stood at 80%.
    And in a further sign that declining oil values have adversely effected OPEC
    members’ plans to expand output infrastructure, El-Badri also revealed Monday
    that the group’s members have indefinitely postponed 35 upstream projects as a
    result of weak crude prices.
    Despite claims by OPEC that members are endeavoring to strictly adhere to
    production quotas, some analysts remain uncertain that the output cuts are
    enough to halt the rise in crude inventories and support prices.
    “The sharp decline in industrial production-related demand begs the question
    of whether supply is adjusting fast enough to prevent a further build in
    inventories,” analysts at Goldman Sachs, led by Jeff Currie, said in a note
    Monday.
    Meanwhile, market participants predict crude’s recent narrow price range could
    continue until the release of the IEA’s monthly Oil Market report and U.S. DOE
    inventory data Wednesday.
    This month’s IEA report is expected to be watched closely, as it is the first
    since the International Monetary Fund slashed its global economic growth
    estimates and it comes after the IEA painted a gloomy picture of global oil
    demand in January’s report.
    “Wednesday will be a big day for fundamentals as the IEA…will release its
    update of world supply and demand. Given that the IMF has revised lower its GDP
    outlook after the last IEA report, we would expect to see further downward
    revisions to the demand side,” Jakob said.
    Although he noted that given higher-than-expected OPEC compliance levels, the
    IEA report could also reveal downward revisions to the supply side.
    -By Reza Amanat, Dow Jones Newswires
    (Spencer Swartz in London contributed to this report.)

    Dow Jones Newswires
    02-09-09 0800ET

  2. 2
    Sambone Says:

    By Spencer Swartz
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    LONDON (Dow Jones)–OPEC nations have collectively postponed 35 oil drilling
    projects that had been in various stages of development, OPEC Secretary General
    Abdalla Salem el-Badri said Monday.
    The delayed projects, shelved for an indefinite period, are a sign that
    members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are starting to
    feel the pain of low crude prices.
    “These projects are on hold … and will continue to be until the (oil) price
    recovers,” El-Badri told journalists here.
    Until now, nearly all of the industry’s oil drilling projects canceled or
    delayed in past months have been in non-OPEC nations, like the U.S. and Canada,
    where high-cost developments such as heavy tar sands were put on the back
    burner as economic incentives and financing dried up.
    But with crude prices trading below $50 a barrel in recent months, even the
    world’s cheapest-to-produce hydrocarbons are taking a hit.
    A big factor in the project postponements is that OPEC spare production
    capacity has swelled to around an eight-year high. Officials in the
    Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also have expressed growing
    concern that future energy demand will be tepid even when the global economy
    starts to recover.
    El-Badri said it wasn’t clear exactly how much production capacity the 35
    projects had been expected to add, but he said the distribution of the
    postponements was across OPEC member countries. The delayed projects are from
    among a total of 150 that OPEC states have planned to deliver over the next
    decade.
    As a result of the project delays, OPEC will not increase production capacity
    by all of the 5 million barrels a day by 2012 that was previously expected,
    said El-Badri, without elaborating.
    OPEC nations pump about 40% of the roughly 86 million barrels of oil consumed
    globally every day.
    El-Badri’s comments came after United Arab Emirates oil minister Mohammad
    Al-Hamli warned earlier Monday in a speech at Chatham House, a London-based
    think tank, that weak oil prices and economic recession are threatening longer
    term spending on Middle East oil projects.
    Hamli later told reporters that all oil and natural gas projects in the United
    Arab Emirates, an OPEC nation, currently are going forward, but said member
    states could shift investment priorities away from energy projects to more
    domestic economic development needs if current oil-price trends continue.
    “We shall all suffer the consequences in the long run” if current trends
    continue, Hamli said.
    OPEC nations have seen oil revenues tank in recent months, with crude prices
    falling to around $40 a barrel Monday from $147 a barrel last July. Financial
    pressures are clearly building in the oil-producing states.
    The International Monetary Fund at the weekend cut its 2009 economic growth
    forecast for the six Gulf Arab oil-exporting states to just 3.5%. The
    countries, which include Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, grew
    by a combined 6.8% in 2008.
    El-Badri said OPEC states had so far achieved 80% compliance with the group’s
    three production cuts totaling 4.2 million barrels a day. He said OPEC,
    scheduled to meet March 15 in Vienna, wouldn’t announce more output reductions
    until 100% compliance with already agreed cuts is achieved. El-Badri
    reiterated that OPEC could cut more of its production if necessary, but only
    after it ensures full compliance with current quotas.

    -By Spencer Swartz, Dow Jones Newswires Dow Jones Newswires
    02-09-09 0808ET

  3. 3
    Sambone Says:

    NEW YORK, Feb 9 (Reuters) – U.S. heating demand this week is expected to
    average nearly 30 percent below normal as mild weather settles into much of
    country, the National Weather Service forecast in its weekly report.
    Demand for heating oil — the favored heating fuel of the Northeast region
    — is expected to be about 28.4 percent below normal this week, according to
    the report.
    Heating demand for natural gas, meanwhile, should average 29.3 percent
    below normal and heating demand for electricity should average 33.3 percent
    below normal, the report said.
    Heating demand was 1.5 percent above normal nationwide last week, though it
    has averaged about 2 percent below normal so far this heating season, according
    to the report.
    The NWS estimates heating needs by aggregating “heating degree days” — an
    index of how far the day’s mean temperature varies from 65 degrees Fahrenheit.
    Click for Meteorlogix U.S. regional weather forecasts.

    FCST FCST FCST **** OBSERVED SEASONAL ****
    WEEK WEEK WEEK **** ACCUMULATIONS ****
    TOTAL DEV DEV TOTAL DEV DEV DEV DEV
    FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
    NORM L YR NORM L YR NORM L YR
    PRCT PRCT
    UNITED STATES 133 -56 -58 2806 -48 255 -2 10
    GAS HOME HEATING CUSTOMER WEIGHTED
    REGION
    NEW ENGLAND 193 -71 -72 4014 174 515 5 15
    MIDDLE ATLANTIC 179 -73 -79 3655 60 561 2 18
    E N CENTRAL 173 -101 -138 4219 156 595 4 16
    W N CENTRAL 189 -91 -140 4325 -57 269 -1 7
    SOUTH ATLANTIC 96 -70 -62 2383 7 381 0 19
    E S CENTRAL 82 -82 -89 2455 23 374 1 18
    W S CENTRAL 54 -60 -33 1469 -209 20 -12 1
    MOUNTAIN 202 -5 16 3167 -432 -240 -12 -7
    PACIFIC 120 15 29 1531 -251 -249 -14 -14

    UNITED STATES 145 -60 -66 3054 -48 262 -2 9
    OIL HOME HEATING CUSTOMER WEIGHTED
    REGION
    NEW ENGLAND 209 -68 -68 4189 114 479 3 13
    MIDDLE ATLANTIC 181 -73 -80 3693 61 571 2 18
    E N CENTRAL 178 -101 -136 4314 153 596 4 16
    W N CENTRAL 245 -83 -147 5221 -45 347 -1 7
    SOUTH ATLANTIC 109 -73 -67 2601 7 440 0 20
    E S CENTRAL 96 -89 -102 2792 52 460 2 20
    W S CENTRAL 51 -60 -34 1441 -193 34 -12 2
    MOUNTAIN 227 0 23 3561 -499 -218 -12 -6
    PACIFIC 178 16 31 2903 -135 -137 -4 -5

    UNITED STATES 179 -71 -76 3715 62 497 2 15
    ELECTRIC HOME HEATING CUSTOMER WEIGHTED
    REGION
    NEW ENGLAND 194 -72 -73 4049 165 513 4 15
    MIDDLE ATLANTIC 177 -75 -84 3700 89 563 2 18
    E N CENTRAL 167 -102 -138 4136 165 592 4 17
    W N CENTRAL 179 -90 -137 4162 -47 275 -1 7
    SOUTH ATLANTIC 56 -51 -39 1497 15 312 1 26
    E S CENTRAL 81 -82 -87 2437 23 371 1 18
    W S CENTRAL 49 -57 -25 1335 -218 -7 -14 -1
    MOUNTAIN 158 7 30 2150 -443 -223 -17 -9
    PACIFIC 144 15 30 2098 -202 -201 -9 -9

    UNITED STATES 98 -49 -42 2159 -65 199 -3 10
    (Reporting by Richard Valdmanis)

    Mon Feb 9 13:43:09 2009

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Thanks Sam

    Forgot to add to earnings calendar that VMC is on tap for earnings this week, infrastructure play, interesting commentary there.

    CHK price target was lifted at GS from 17 to 23.

  5. 5
    elduque Says:

    BDI +173 1815

    TED -2124 94.61

    Still hard to find anybody out there willing to talk about some of the positive developments.

  6. 6
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Credit fund flows — Weekly mutual fund flow data released at the end of last week confirmed the strong bid for High Grade bonds. Interestingly, it was the first week where there were outflows from money market funds – a positive for all risky assets. There was $9.1bn of inflows into Investment Grade mutual funds for the week ending 2/4. This compares to +$3.5bn into equities and -$21.9bn out of money markets.

  7. 7
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Trading Desk says no technical recommendations today… patterns are out with window with all the headlines.

    Makes sense.

  8. 8
    tater Says:

    Cargocult,
    I have been out doing real life work lately so I didn’t see your request for NM until late. That’s a wild one.

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2933882

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Nice green open for energy.

    Goldman also raised their target for SWN from 30 to 39.

    Nice to see the follow through for NFX today. Probably will exit the risky Febs there and at SU today.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Tater – thanks for posting that NM chart.

    BOP – thanks as always for the credit and market direction comments. Glad to see they thought the same thing I did about the day’s outcome. Wonder if Obama’s press conference originally set for tonight will happen or be postponed.

    GMXR starting to act like it wants to play catchup to the recent move by HK and some of the other Haynesville Shale players.

    BTU topping $30.
    SU trying to get me back to even (which does not enter into my thoughts other than its 1) nice and 2) a little surprising until you read #2 above on the OPEC cancellations and then you can see easily why oil might be ready to take that run Nicky has been looking for.

    Lot of good moves for the options portfolio today. No reason to be greedy.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Oil up $2. Nicky, when you get in would like to hear your latest thoughts on levels.

  12. 12
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Credit Markets trading up from Friday’s close. Especially good to see the High Yield CDS Index making a positive move. HY Index has not really participated in the bond spread rally that has pushed investment grade bonds higher this year. That said, some individual HY bonds have screamed off their lows. Our favs (well, mine anyway), KSU 13% due 13 issued at 88.4 now offered at 106. Almost 20 points of appreciation… 20% move. Who says “bonds are boring”?

    IG 191 -3bps from Friday

    HY 74 1/4 +3/8

  13. 13
    choices Says:

    GMXR up over 9% today, hesitate to mention this but one of the stock summaries, Seeking Alpha, indicated that Cramer talked about it favorably on Friday-said it might be an acquisition candidate.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: $10KP

    NFX – Sold the FEB $22.50 Calls (NFXBX) for $2, up 125%. Continuing to hold the March Calls.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Don’t hesitate. Did not see the catalyst for the low volume move but that would be it. Cramer is not wrong on that potential.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    HK money looks to be flowing to CHK on the GS upgrade.

  17. 17
    Patipati Says:

    Cannot find which March NFX calls you have.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Pati – I added them on Friday (see Holdings Watch above)

    Added NFX – (5) MAR $25 Calls (NFXCE) for $0.65

  19. 19
    choices Says:

    Re service companies, SLB seems fairly strong the last few days-does not seem to reflect any cost cutting pressure.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    Choices – I noted that. Same for HAL and BHI which are going to see lower prices on pressure pumping and more and for NBR which is operator of a lot of rigs doing the horizontals due to their high horsepower fleet. That’s gotta smart but so far, the Street is giving them a get out of jail free pass on the rig drops as the stocks have already tumbled. I’m waiting a little longer and then shorting.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Merrill lowered their 2009 N. American rig count forecast, saw a drop of 700 rigs before, now looking for a 1,000.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    CNBC talking natural gas now with Wachovia analyst.

  23. 23
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ummmm…….. rally?

    Apparently, Geithner is going to testify on TARP at 2:30 tp Senate Banking Panel. This rallied the mrkt.

    Credit sharply rallying…

    Personally, I think it’s “scared shorts” more than “gots to have it longs.”

  24. 24
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BAC continues to be the canary in the coal mine… and right now, that canary is singing up a storm!

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    …and here I am preferring the BTU in the coal mine. Exiting shortly (very likely today) for a reposition on next market weakness.

  26. 26
    Sambone Says:

    #22, Wachovia still has ANALyst?

  27. 27
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z – that was a great call on BTU. Hindsite makes it all look easy. But, it was a brave move at the time. Nice work.

  28. 28
    kyleandy Says:

    choices re SLB fairly strong shud be really strong, as i’m short it and OIH, and they keep ruining my day.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Yep, the other guy their in E&P is very smart.

    Kyle – it feels like a continually refreshing short cover in the sector. Much like the situation in the refiners but with no hint of good news.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    RS – in case you are in this morning, I plan to punt those SU Feb calls tomorrow or Wednesday before inventories. If we get good numbers on Wednesday (which would mean lower imports and not higher refining demand) or we get strong gasoline sales for a second week in a row, I’ll add a March SU position.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    ERROR WATCH: I inadvertently listed Saturday of this week as equity options expiration. That is incorrect, February expiry is 2 weeks away. The post has been corrected, apologies for the error.

  32. 32
    rseidman Says:

    A: THanks

  33. 33
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    wowowowow.

    IG 187 -8 bps for the day. Great, positive move in Investment Grade Credit. Puts an underpinning to the equity rally.

  34. 34
    choices Says:

    kyle, #28, I feel your pain on the other side-I’m long SLB but deep under water so decided to hold for the long term and wrote covered calls to play some defense and now the calls are getting hammered-go figure.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    BOP, do you have a chart of the IG? I’m guessing no but it would be helpful.

  36. 36
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z – “no” would be the correct assumption. Maybe someone with a Markit subscription can help us out. I’ll check around.

  37. 37
    Jay Reynolds Says:

    How to save money on E&P Costs

    “Oil workers aligned with the government of President Hugo Chavez are pressuring rig companies to continue drilling, despite the state’s failure to pay for those services at a time of rock-bottom oil prices.

    Unionized rig operators claim to have taken control of two drills idled by U.S. driller Helmerich & Payne Inc., and have vowed to TAKE OVER the company’s nine other rigs nationwide if they ever cease operating.”

    http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=72649

  38. 38
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — ok… the great thing about being asked questions is that you get to scurry around to find answers. Just like market-based bond quotes, there isn’t a “perfect” graph of the IG (as there would be for, let’s say, a stock). But bloomberg has a function that picks up some of the trades… so, at least it can illustrate rough price and directional moves.

    We are currently trading at the tightest spread in the IG index so far for this year. It’s still a lot wider than last Sept… but, off the wides in early December (293, if i recally correctly).

    I’ll chart and send to you.

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    BOP – thanks, if you have in excel just send me the data and I’ll chart for the Tuesday post.

    Looking at adding a little more solar, looking FSLR add but also SPRWA (these are the only two I’d touch in the solar arena now). Also may add some HK later as its seeing more profit taking on the CHK upgrade.

  40. 40
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — i wonder if it makes sense to hold off, adding to any E&P positions until after Thurs… of course, if there is a broad mrkt rally, I guess E&P would participate… but, given the warm temperatures this last week (and continuing today), the nat gas number could fall out on the fugly side. thoughts?

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Just saw that Goldman raised NFX to Buy this morning.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    This week’s weather = next week’s number. The number this week will be smaller off the 214 HDDs but not terrible and up against last year’s 181 HDDs. I’m waiting for a little more profit taking. Would add to GMXR but Cramer gapped it and I hate to follow that kind of weak hands movement. HK I’ll add back if it really succumbs to some PT down to the 21 level.

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    Re 40 – meant to add traders are starting to look through the trough right now but as the shoulder season will likely show a quick rebuild in storage due to stronger than normal injections it may be tough to keep the cautiously optimistic, eyes on the long term ball thinking going.

  44. 44
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    so, if HK is thinking about balancing their recent debt offering with an equity 2ndary, I would think it would be sooner, than later. Of course, some people think HK is not going back to the mrkts (for debt or equity) for the next year or so… I’m not one of those people, but we shall see.

  45. 45
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Meg Whitman just threw her hat into the Calif Governor’s Ring… she offically announced a “2010 CA Governor Exploratory Committee.”

  46. 46
    cargocult Says:

    Tater – Thanks for looking at the NM chart for me! Yes it has been wild and I’m still on for the ride.

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: $10KP

    SPWRA – Bought (3) SPWRA $40 Calls (QSUCH) for 2.65. Just diversifying my small solar position into a silicon sourced maker. I put these guys second to FSLR (the dominant thin film solar maker) and think that both benefit from the passage of the stimulus with its $100 billion in alternative energy funding and its tax incentives which keep the 30% of cost deduction and formalize the removal of the cap cost (no long limits on how much of the cost of the product can be deducted).

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    47 = March calls

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    RE HK Deal. I think its about 40/60 that he does one now. I think Floyd has to have CHK’s Thanksgiving announcement of a shelf filing, not even an actual secondary, at the front of his thinking. Also, normally he would have timed it with the operational update or within a day of it. We got the update … and no deal. They also have good hedges in place and greatly reduced activity outside of the Haynesville and enough CF to pay for that program this year. So that’s all in the “they aren’t going to do it column”. In the “a deal is coming column” are a) history at this level of doing deals before the shoulder season, b) the recent rally which help absorb some of the discount.

  50. 50
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    POTHUS on TV now…

  51. 51
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    oops… misspelled.

    President Obama on TV in Elkhart, Indiana.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Saying anything new?

  53. 53
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    saying it’s the worst economy since the great depression… guess he forgets 1980… anyway, saying it’s going to get a lot worse… unless we pass the economic stimulus and reinvestment bill.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    So nothing new.

  55. 55
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    basically, “I’m am the Government, and I’m here to help.”

  56. 56
    md Says:

    FDR he ain’t.

    On LNG. The above article predicts LNG imports to rise .27 BCFPD. Does not seem very significant against massive reduction of rigs that represent production of 58 BCFPD.

    It is instructive that despite higher YOY HDD’s season TD the draws have been lower. At end of the day… rig count will have the last laugh.

    How do HDD’s look going out next 2 weeks based on maps

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the laugh. Next year about this time. “I’m from the Government, here’s the tab.”

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    md – agreed re LNG, could be a bit bigger but not a great concern, will of course be monitoring weekly as a check on that thinking.

    HDD’s look pathetic this week, don’t know about next week other than my eyeball reading of the two week map which is a return to cooler temps for the east and west coasts.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    Oil has slowly given back 90% of the days gains, NG down which is not surprising. I’d bet on large builds in distillate in about 3 weeks due to this weather.

  60. 60
    md Says:

    How about predictions for end of season inventory. 1450 is my guess.

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    I was thinking 1.4 Tcf but not sure how much it matters to price at this point. The slope of the rebuild line will be the critical indicator for price.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Good solar article:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123378465974249285.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo

  63. 63
    choices Says:

    dry bulk stks up today:EXM,GNK, NM, EGLE. DRYS up also but has been trashed recently because of loan convenents and could just as likely be down 20% tomorrow.

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    DSX too, waiting on a pullback, like the chart, like the macro.

  65. 65
    elduque Says:

    taters- what is your thought about the CHK gap. Do you think we fill it or is a breakaway?

  66. 66
    Sambone Says:

    Feb 9 (Reuters) – Falling U.S. fuel demand has led to a
    record oil supply glut at the world’s largest crude storage
    site, which analysts say could soon put more pressure on oil
    prices. nN06452266
    Below is a breakdown of oil storage capacity and expansion
    plans at the Cushiing, Oklahoma, storage hub.

    OPERATOR CAPACITY EXPANSION PLANS
    Enbridge 15.7 mln bls None planned
    Plains LP 10.8 mln bls None planned
    SemGroup Cos 7.8 mln bls Adding 3.1 mln bbls by
    end-2009
    BP 7.8 mln bls None planned
    Teppco LP 3.1 mln bls Adding 3 mln bls in
    mid-2009
    ConocoPhillips 0.8 mln bls No estimate available
    Sunoco 0.3 mln bls No estimate available
    TOTAL* 46.3 mln bls 6.1 million barrels by
    end-2009
    *As much as 20 percent of total, or “shell” capacity, is left
    empty for safety reasons, or for blending and maintenance.
    Sources: Company filings and presentations, industry sources.
    (Reporting by Joshua Schneyer; Editing by David Gregorio)

    Mon Feb 9 17:48:02 2009

  67. 67
    Sambone Says:

    NEW YORK, Feb 9 (Reuters) – Fundamentals may start to look
    more supportive for beaten down gasoline as dwindling supply
    from refinery turnarounds eats into high inventories eventhough
    demand remains slow in a weak economy, traders said on Monday.
    Lack of sufficient imports is another potential factor that
    may help motor fuel values, the traders said.
    “Turnaround season is ramping up,” noted Stephen Schork,
    the editor of The Schork Report in Philadelphia. “Therefore,
    gasoline supplies — which are currently at a 44-week high —
    are about to fall dramatically.”
    Though turnaround season is planned so it’s “not a concern”
    like unplanned outages, “it is undoubtedly underpinning the
    market at the moment,” Schork added in a report on Monday.
    Prompt Gulf Coast gasoline differentials are softer, but
    next cycle barrels are slightly higher as traders anticipate
    ongoing refinery maintenance taking out some barrels.
    But while demand continues to drag, the pace of slowdown is
    much less.
    Among refiners with maintenance work, Valero’s Corpus
    Christi, Texas, refinery is currently working on a heavy oil
    cracker unit and its Texas City refinery has shut an
    80,000-barrel per day crude unit for 35 days
    Conoco has scheduled work on a 145,000-bpd fluid catalytic
    cracker at its Bayway refinery in New Jersey, for six weeks
    from early February. Refiners have also
    curtailed operations due to weak gasoline margins, including
    Valero and Sunoco.
    “Overall, we have a situation where differentials are
    supported by TA (turnaround), particularly in PADD I,” a New
    York Harbor trader said, referring to the East Coast region.
    Gasoline differentials were slightly weaker in the Gulf
    Coast on Monday and also pulled back from last week’s gains in
    the less liquid New York Harbor, but traders said they see a
    supportive factor in the lack of sufficient import flows.
    “Limited cargos are coming so there’s no reason for the
    market to fall off too severely,” said a Harbor trader, noting
    also that turnaround season would also help values recover.
    In the Midwest, differentials for gasoline are likely to
    recover this week after declines last week, as supplies of the
    fuel tighten in the Gulf Coast region, traders said.
    “The basis declines could be temporary, or at least not
    very deep,” said one Midwest broker.
    Gasoline profit margins have improved slowly but surely.
    The March RBOB gasoline crack spread was plus
    $12.28 per barrel on Monday, up from the negative earlier,
    while the heating oil crack was plus $16.61, easing
    from a high of $27.81 last month.
    “Blend margins are terrible with the high numbers needed to
    bring Eurograde cargos over. So an argument could be made that
    U.S. gasoline cracks need to move higher to attract the
    marginal barrel from Europe,” a second Harbor trader said.
    “Having said that there is still a bit of gasoline to chew
    through in tank in NYH,” he added.
    The pace of gasoline demand destruction has ebbed in recent
    weeks. The latest government data on Feb. 4 showed gasoline
    demand standing last at 8.77 million barrels per day in the
    prior four weeks, down only 0.5 percent from a year ago.
    Meanwhile, heating oil price differentials in the NY Harbor
    were likely to face pressure this week as demand slows amid a
    warming trend that started this past weekend.
    The National Weather Service said U.S. heating demand this
    week is expected to average nearly 30 percent below normal as
    mild weather settles into much of country. Demand for heating
    oil — the Northeast’s favored heat fuel — is seen about 28
    percent below normal, it said.
    Private forecaster DTN Meteorlogix said temperatures in
    Northeast states were seen about 8-15 Fahrenheit (4-8 Celsius)
    above normal Wednesday to Friday. nDTN857
    The latest government data shows heating oil supplies in
    PADD 1, the East Coast, at 27.4 million barrels in the week of
    Jan. 30, up 6.6 percent from a year ago.
    “There’s plenty of supply,” said a distillates trader.
    In the Midwest, traders said diesel differentials continue
    to be held lower on high diesel inventories of the fuel.
    (Reporting by Haitham Haddadin and Rebekah Kebede)
    (Editing by Janet McGurty)

    Mon Feb 9 17:22:40 2009

  68. 68
    Sambone Says:

    OPEC Prolongs Weak Oil Prices, Pressures Demand

    DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
    From MARKET TALK
    [Dow Jones] OPEC’s production cuts and postponed oil drilling projects could pressure crude prices rather than boosting them, though they offer some long-term support, says Alaron Trading’s Phil Flynn. “The best cure for low oil prices is lower oil prices — demand just isn’t there and OPEC interfering with the market’s workings just prolongs the demand destruction,” he says. The near-trillion dollar US stimulus package could spark a bit of a price bounce but it’s unlikely to last, he adds. “Oil inventories are stuffed to the gills…(the stimulus package) is not going to work off the inventory over the next few months.” Nymex March crude +25c at $40.42/bbl, retreating from intraday high of $42.43/bbl.

    [Dow Jones] Nymes crude looks “rock solid” at $40/bbl, holding the crucial support level despite major builds in US oil inventories, says Nauman Barakat at Macquarie Futures USA. The weekly oil inventory reports have seen a record 30 million barrel gain in the past month alone while exchange traded funds and commodity index funds rolled their crude oil contracts from March to April on Friday, Barakat notes. But “the market did not unravel,” he adds. Nymex March crude +$1.92 at $42.09/bbl.

    Nymex Crude Up; Market Awaits US Economic Stimulus Plan
    By Hyun Young Lee

    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    OTTAWA — Crude oil futures were trading higher Monday, as market participants eyed further developments on the U.S. economic stimulus package.

    Light, sweet crude for March delivery was up $1.59, or 4%, at $41.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange was $1.36 higher at $47.57 a barrel.

    With little on the data docket ahead of the weekly U.S. oil inventory reports Tuesday and Wednesday, crude prices were in familiar territory, with woeful demand levels keeping a lid on attempts to push higher.

    “The overall tone is about waiting and watching, particularly with what’s going to be happening with the stimulus plan,” said Addison Armstrong, an analyst with Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn. “But it’s pretty quiet on the oil patch this morning.”

    The U.S.” near-trillion dollar stimulus package is currently making its way through Congress, with Senate approval expected in the next few days. Market participants hope this will boost crude prices, on expectations that an eventual economic turnaround will prompt a recovery in oil demand.

    OPEC continues to buoy oil prices, with growing signs the cartel is committed to adhering to production cuts. Over the weekend, OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia told several customers in Asia that it will maintain reductions on March crude shipments, with the biggest cut heard at 15% of volumes.

    The group has agreed to cut 4.2 million barrels from crude export levels since September, and compliance currently stands at 80%, Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri said earlier Monday.

    News that Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PdVSA is having “big financial problems’ and ongoing unrest in Nigeria’s oil-producing regions could lend further support to crude prices, Armstrong said.

    “In the background, there are some bullish drumbeats but they’re being drowned out by weak demand,” he said.

    Front-month March reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, was up 2.45 cents, or 2%, to $1.2752 a gallon. March heating oil was 2.53 cents higher at $1.3851 a gallon.

    -By Hyun Young Lee, Dow Jones Newswires

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: Regular account

    Added FEB HK $22.50 Calls (HKBX) for $0.55 with the stock trading down 4% at $21.20 against a broadly green energy back drop. Feels like profit taking and perhaps a brokerage downgrade I have not seen or money flowing into big brother CHK which was upgraded by Goldman this morning.

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    Re 68 – Sounds like Flynn is still short.

  71. 71
    Sambone Says:

    #70 – Yep
    Uncle Phil
    http://www.321energy.com/reports/flynn/current.html

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    Thanks Sam. So what Phil meant to say was that the two O’s, OPEC and Obama should stop doing things to mess up his short.

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    CHK up 3.7%…Goldman just isn’t what it used to be, lol.

  74. 74
    Dman Says:

    Cramer has recently revived his interest in NG plays, interviewing Aubrey, this GMXR thing & also a few names mentioned in columns. If this continues we’ll find more gaps in our near future, which happened last year, both on the way up & on the way down. I’d rather he lost interest in our little sector, but alas, he won’t.

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    Dman – agreed.

  76. 76
    Nicky Says:

    Good afternoon. PF is still short!

    $42.50 has proved impossible to get through countless times now.

    Any stimulus bounce is going to be very short lived imo. For both oil and the broader market.

    Short term I see a bit more upside for both.

  77. 77
    ram Says:

    I was wondering if SAMB’s friend is looking for oil to get to $25 in a hurry?

  78. 78
    choices Says:

    a different take on crude from Hoye:

    FWIW

    http://321energy.com/editorials/hoye/hoye020709.html

  79. 79
    jy Says:

    NAPE was well attended (supposedly 16,000 registered), but there were a lot of booths that were set up as “meet & greet” instead of showing prospects.

    My observations from North American Prospect Expo (NAPE) last week in Houston:
    1.Prospect volume down-many of the booths set up only to “show the flag”
    2.Everyone “waiting for costs to come down”
    3.No monkeys, fishing tanks, or money closets set up by royalty buyers to attract customers to booths
    4.Numerous folks selling acreage spreads adjacent to (but not in the guts of) resource plays.
    5. Consensus of those I spoke with was that costs will come down and product prices will rise in 2nd half of 2009. (good indication that neither will occur)

  80. 80
    Nicky Says:

    On the Hoye chart you can clearly see 5 waves down. And you can also see we are clearly in a sideways consolidation which actually can bounce around between here and 50 quite happily and still be in a sideways consolidation. This is wave IV and we need to see V down which I think we will see when the dow makes its next move to the downside.

  81. 81
    Nicky Says:

    Is his chart saying capitulation when we hit $20 or is he saying we have already capitulated – its not clear to me.

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    Crude cracked $40 and fell quickly lower, closes in a few minutes, looks unlikely to regain key psychological support at $40. Looks to me like another shot at $38 and then back to this range bound trading in the low to mid 40s.

  83. 83
    Nicky Says:

    Out of interest how many days since we last had a higher close for oil?

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    We closed slightly higher twice last week.

  85. 85
    Nicky Says:

    Thursday

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    Thanks JY.

  87. 87
    Dman Says:

    I think the Hoyle chart & commentary is basically saying that the down move is done, more or less. Crude has seen two enormous straight-line moves in opposing directions over the last year. There was very little waffling at the top before the decline switched in. Now we see some waffling at the end of the huge straight-line down-move.

    It seems obvious that both moves were overdone, so I expect a trading range eg. $35-65 rather than yet another monster move. With OPEC cancelling projects left & right & a lot of US production uneconomic at $40, I can’t see a drop to $25 other than some freaky spike that wouldn’t be of meaningful duration.

    Other commodities (metals, ag) are turning up and the oil supply-demand situation is at least as dire as for those. Global demand would have to decline steadily at 7% a year just to keep up with production declines. In fact, probably faster than 7% now that a lot of oilfield work is being postponed/cancelled.

    I just read that car sales last month in China exceeded those in the US (!)

  88. 88
    Dman Says:

    BTW, one huge difference between a car sold in China and a car sold in the developed world: a lot of those Chinese cars are for first-time buyers, i.e. adding to the global oil-chugging global-warming inducing fleet. The huge decline in oil arrived just in time to make it easier for all those Chinese & Indian car buyers to go ahead & not be worried about spending all their income on fuel.

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    Dman – Same trend emerging in Mexico. Cheap cars prompting first time buyers.

    Wonder what the odds are for an TARP II/Stimulus vote eve end of day rally are today. Energy certainly has faded gains on the day but remains mostly green with the market largely red. XOM down on GS rating snub.

    Missed my first attempt at SLB puts, rather be stingy and go for the mid than pay up and get slapped by a O-stimulus rally.

    HK looks like it will bounce late, still have not seen reason other than for a rest and profit taking for today’s counter group move.

  90. 90
    Nicky Says:

    We need a lower low for oil..can be equal, slightly or much more, or truncate and fall short but we do need a shot to the downside and v’s are normally straight down and then quickly reversed.

  91. 91
    choices Says:

    Concerning China, IMO I think that China will play an important role in developing a rounding bottom to the global recession (depression?)-They have “agreed” on a stimulus package which should kick in soon (completely bi-partisan). I watch PTR for the health of oil production and sales indicators and the ETF’s FXI and PGJ for business health-all “seemed” to find a bottom around 1/21/09 and have started up.

    IMO, the keys to recovery will be in Asia and not in the West where the politicians can’t get out of each others way-it is truly pathetic. Maybe Bush was right on one thing, it is easier being a dictator.

  92. 92
    elduque Says:

    Thanks Z for HK. I just paid for the service for the next 5 years.

  93. 93
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – What do you make of the ITM and NTM put trades in HK today?

  94. 94
    Dman Says:

    A few weeks ago I was looking into ERX & trying to find any info on the underlying index, the Russell 1000 Energy Index. Weird thing is that I couldn’t find it anywhere. Not mentioned on the Russell site. I’ve seen some comments online from others also unable to find this index!

    According to Direxion, the index has a Bloomberg symbol (RGUSEL) & is 66% integrated oil & 15% crude producers, 12% service & a smattering of coal, pipelines etc.

    http://www.direxionshares.com/etf/ebu_3x_shares.html?overview;funds=erx

    If anyone can actually find the index listing that would be great. I wonder if it is just a matter of “list all energy companies in the Russell 1000” ?

  95. 95
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    zberry says he “will be back in 10 mins”

  96. 96
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dman — I pulled up the description of RGUSEL on bb… it has 81 companies in it… a mix of all things energy: coal, nat gas, services, refining, integrateds (incl XOM)… pretty much any domestic energy-related name you can think of.

  97. 97
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dman — oh… and a few solar names too (e.g. FSLR)

  98. 98
    Dman Says:

    Thanks BOP, 81 names in an index with “1000” in it suggests it is a sector selection of the Russell 1000.

  99. 99
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dman — I think you’re spot on.

    “Russell 1000 Energy Index. This index is the Russell US Large Cap Energy Sector index that is part of the Russell Global Index classification system.”

    Clear as mud to me… but, there you have the official explanation.

  100. 100
    zman Says:

    Eld – Good to hear

    Thanks for the assists BOP.

    Ram – I’d guess first day down in the last several trading days. People are betting on either a deal or further profit taking. Its isolated to the front month so I’d bet they are guessing, probably an option site is inspiring the trades.

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    Tempted to play CRK for earnings tonight, but won’t. I used to be more up on the story but have let it slip in recent months and feel that it would be a bit more like gambling than my usual earnings play.

    On the positive side, they already have the reserve numbers and impairment out the door, and with the reserve numbers the Street has production in hand so a miss won’t likely come from the volume side. I watch for the reaction and to get back up to speed on the name and will include in the post tomorrow.

    BOP, you playing?

  102. 102
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — re: CRK… would sure like to. They claim to be in the “sweet spot” of the HV with a “great acreage position.” But e&p names have run so much lately. I agree, it’s a crap shoot as to how the mrkt will look at their earnings.

    I like those guys better now, than I did 10 yrs ago. The mngmt team has been through the fire and knows how to stay alive.

  103. 103
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    re: CRK — i would be inclined to buy if, for some reason, the stock got whalloped. But, I also think some of these guys announce 2ndaries on the tail of good earnings reports… so, treading lightly here.

  104. 104
    zman Says:

    Re CRK – they have not had nearly the run, chart looks scoopy, not exactly a cheap name, hedges may be a bit slight for ’09 relative to their peers. Will play it (or not) based on the release and the call, not today.

  105. 105
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    CRK — ok. Bought some stock. Scoopy chart. And if i get stuck with those guys for a while, i don’t worry about ’em.

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    That one is not nearly as likely to move on numbers as it is on catalytic news items.

  107. 107
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Not many people follow it.

  108. 108
    Nicky Says:

    804 spx still remains the line in the sand. It looks as though the upside could be complete by early March at the latest. Upside targets are difficult. There is a ton of resistance at the 925 level, then 945, 965.
    Once the upside is complete then we should move lower into May/June and this will complete v down to the downside. Target area is 640 – 690 SPX but could go lower.

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    BOP – CRK – 11 analysts, not a big following. How is Bois D’Arc accounted for now?

    Beer thirty kids, thanks for playing.

  110. 110
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z – ha! 11 analysts… but from smaller firms. So, less “well-followed.” But, I get your point.

    Bois d’Arc was sold for a gain and closed on Aug 28, 2008. So, past history now.

  111. 111
    zman Says:

    That’s what I thought but wondered because they have a slide on them mentioned with Stone (SGY) in their latest presentation. Sounds like a minority interest.

  112. 112
    jy Says:

    SGY accounting for Bois D’Arc purchase as a big, “uh oh!”

    CRK should be jumping for joy over sale. Not sure about acctg methodology though.

  113. 113
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    unless i am completely mistaken, CRK is completely out of B d’A.

  114. 114
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jy – i get the sense they are… jumping for joy. you follow crk closely? any thoughts there?

  115. 115
    ram Says:

    Hi Nicky. “Target area is 640 – 690 SPX but could go lower.” – This coincides with the lower end of the initial move of a longer term double top that started in early 1996. So EWT is for a low in May/June and then another bull run? Always appreciate your thoughts.

  116. 116
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    CRK – 8/28/08 CRK completed the sale of its 49% interest in Bois d’Arc for $440mm in cash plus 5.3mm shares of Stone Energy. CRK reported a pre-tax gain of $243mm, $158mm after tax. CRK still owns 5.3mm shares of SGY… down from $50/sh in August to around $8.50/sh now ($265mm –> $45mm).

  117. 117
    Nicky Says:

    Hi Ram,

    In Elliott wave terms we are currently in a wave iv correction and have been since November. Its choppy and difficult to trade. Once 804 breaks I think the trap doors will open and wave v will be underway. Cyclewise a low is due in May/June to be followed by a bounce and then further downside in the Autumn. This bear run is not due to be finished cyclewise until 2010 – 2011. That will be followed by a tremendous rally lasting for a couple of years before the market rolls over again, but I am ahead of myself!

  118. 118
    Nicky Says:

    Ram, I should also add that short term we could go quite a bit higher (as long as 804 holds). If 943 gets taken out then we could be at 1000spx in a heartbeat.

  119. 119
    mimster90 Says:

    Did GDP fall of your list?

  120. 120
    zman Says:

    Nope, it was in the post. Just don’t own it right now.

  121. 121
    zman Says:

    President speaking now.

  122. 122
    jy Says:

    BOP
    Re #114: I do not follow CRK closely, but worked w/them on a project in partnership in previous life about 4 years ago.

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    Dollar surging post close.

  124. 124
    calvo Says:

    Interesting new oil ETF (USL) that reduces rolling losses due to contango: http://seekingalpha.com/article/119356-etf-investors-mistakenly-stock-up-on-uso-buy-usl-instead?source=front_page_most_popular_articles

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