Wednesday Half Day

67 thoughts on “Wednesday Half Day”

1. Quick, interesting read.

   NYMEX Oil Benchmark Again in Question

   An Unrepresentative Price

   During the surge to $147 per barrel earlier this year, OPEC repeatedly criticised the NYMEX reference price for overstating the real degree of tightness in the physical market and causing prices to overshoot on the upside.

   While rallying NYMEX prices seemed to point to an acute physical shortage and need for more oil, Saudi Arabia could not find buyers for the 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) of extra oil promised to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon or the 300,000 bpd promised to U.S. President George Bush in June.

   Bizarrely, rather than acknowledge there was something wrong with the reference price, some market participants suggested Saudi Arabia should increase the already large discounts for its physical crude to achieve sales in a market that clearly did not need the oil, and was not paying enough contango to make storing it economic (contango is where the futures price is above the spot market).

   The NYMEX WTI price may have achieved unprecedented media fame as a result of the “super-spike”, but a futures price to which producers and consumers were paying ever larger discounts for actual barrels was clearly not a good indication of where the market as a whole was trading.

   Now the market risks overshooting in the other direction. Intense pressure on the front month in recent weeks has more to do with the contract’s peculiarities (in particular storage restrictions at the delivery point) than a further deterioration in oil demand or a market vote of no-confidence in the 2.2 million barrels per day further cut in oil production announced by OPEC at the end of last week.

   The collapse in NYMEX prices nearby risks exaggerating the real degree of oversupply and demand destruction, sending the wrong signal to producers and consumers about the wider availability of crude in the petroleum economy.

   (more)

   http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=71003

2. Thanks Jay, I saw that last night along with articles from May 2007 saying the same thing. I highlighted Cushing in the post today and you can see that when it falls, oil is soon to rise (generally) and vice versa.

3. Morning all.

   Fall in energy looks quite staggering now over the last week but that said it is very typical action for a wave 5 just as we saw on the way up in the final few weeks.

   Its hard to imagine people still shorting it down here as the risk/reward on the downside must be very limited now. Except Phil Flynn of course!

4. Z – what time is the Nymex closing today?

5. Morning Nicky, looks like 1:30

   http://www.nymex.com/ntm581_2008.aspx

   Durable goods up 1% ex transportation (planes, trains, autos)

   Byron Wien on CNBC early saying oil “astonishingly low”, goes much higher in 2009. OPEC secretary general says he sees $75 oil in 2010, recovery in oil prices beginning by 2H09.

6. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who chaired the meeting (of the Natural Gas-OPEC), predicted the era of “cheap gas” would soon end, saying members of the group wanted to co-operate to make the gas market more “predictable,” according to a report in the Financial Times

7. By Sherry Su
   Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

   LONDON (Dow Jones)–Crude futures fell by more than $2 Wednesday ahead of the
   Christmas holiday, with ICE Brent front-month futures hitting a low of $37.49 a
   barrel amid a gloomy global demand outlook and expectations of bearish U.S. oil
   inventory data.
   “It’s just world economy and the underlying feeling that nothing is getting
   better,” an oil broker based in London said. “There is also a lack of buyers in
   the market, so prices are drifting lower.”
   The extent of the decline will be determined by the U.S. Department of Energy
   data out later Wednesday and whether or not they indicate builds in crude and
   oil product inventories, he added.
   At 1246 GMT, the front-month February Brent contract on London’s ICE futures
   exchange was down $2.40 at $37.96 a barrel, after hitting an intraday low of
   $37.49 a barrel, the lowest since December 2004.
   The front-month February light, sweet, crude contract on the New York
   Mercantile Exchange was trading $2.02 lower at $36.96 a barrel.
   The ICE’s gasoil contract for January delivery was down $12.50 at $405.50 a
   metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for January delivery was down 498 points at
   80.62 cents a gallon.
   A slew of key energy and economic data in the U.S. are scheduled to be
   released later Wednesday. The closely watched oil inventory data for the week
   ended Dec. 19 are due at 1535 GMT.
   Total U.S. crude stockpiles are expected to have slipped by just 200,000
   barrels in the week to Dec. 19, with refinery run rates possibly 0.1 percentage
   point lower, according to the average prediction from 12 analysts polled by Dow
   Jones Newswires.
   The market’s focus, however, will be on crude storage at Cushing, Oklahoma –
   the delivery point for Nymex futures – which was previously at 27.5 million
   barrels, just 500,000 barrels from capacity.
   Traders will also keep a sharp eye out for some key economic data in the U.S.,
   including weekly jobless claims report, due out from 1330 GMT, which will lend
   fresh clues to the stock markets and the oil market as well.
   Also pressuring sentiment, Japan’s imports of crude oil and condensate in
   November fell 17.1% on year to 17.73 million kiloliters, or 3.72 million
   barrels a day, the largest on-year decline so far this year, underscoring the
   sharp decline in oil demand in the second largest economy in the world.
   Faced with the bleak outlook for global economy, traders and analysts mostly
   believe the downtrend in crude futures are likely to persist for a longer time.
   “Demand is still bad, (crude) stocks are still good. Investment community is
   licking wounds, and so will probably be more cautious at the start of next
   year,” said another London-based oil broker.
   “I reckon we (will) grind to low $30s, then you’ll probably see a lot of
   buying … All hinge on weather, OPEC compliance,” he said.
   -By Sherry Su, Dow Jones Newswires
   (Reza Amanat in London contributed to this story.)

   Dow Jones Newswires
   12-24-08 0757ET

8. Mortgage applications jump 125% YoY.

   http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Week-week-mortgage-applications-skyrocket/story.aspx?guid={45B8FF88-6249-4C0E-B962-B7A5F2BA8B75}

9. Data seemed generally better than expected including durables although much of that was defence.
   I think the indices are brewing for a big rally.

10. Merry Christmas to everyone. Safe travel, lots of smiling laughing kids, and no coal in your stocking.

11. Nicky – agreed re data. Art Cashin looking for big bear market rally, sounded like in January. Everything I read re oil direction very short term is lower. Get a good number on storage today and we could see a snap up there too but I doubt it’ll have much staying power through year end.

    1520 – thanks, you too! Coal is a bad gift this year unless you get carbon credits with it.

12. i’m going to start hoarding carbon credits once i find out where to buy one.

    Good article in the WSJ this morning about how coal + carbon credit per megawatt will be more expensive than nat gas per megawatt. Good for nat gas producers.

    I plan to corner the market on carbon credits.

13. EEE has tried to get into that business. I know these guys, smart, but so far that has not helped. They produce K-fuel (clean coal) and are trying to sell the process as well. Have not looked at in a long time but it might do well in the next 4 years as it does make for cleaner burning, mercury free coal. They are also starting to provide carbon information tools to utilities…if generators are going to be expected to buy offsetting credits for carbon capture they are going to want accurate info…just thinking out loud.

14. Z – this wave 5 is very difficult to count but I think before we put in a lasting low we will need to test the low put in from the January contract so below 34. It looks like we are still in 3 of 5 down so at some point a small bounce for 4…

15. i’ll have to look at EEE. Another in the clean coal space is FTEK. They have dealt with NOX regulation more than carbon issues.

16. EEE’s Kfuel reduces sox, nox, and mercury compared to regular coal. Do they make it, don’t know. Long series of missteps.

17. NIcky,
    Just wondering about your oil count. Do you have an alternate count that does not have us going back to 34, or does that look like a necessity for everything to work right?

18. Friedman cut CCJ target from $48 to $13. Cut their rating to mkt perf as well with the stock now at $15. Now that’s the kind of useful analysis we need in the energy patch, lol.

19. Z- I’ll do some more looking at EEE. Process they have looks like it works.

20. Hi Tater,

    5 is very difficult to count and looks a bit short right now relatively. It doesn’t have to go back to 34 on this wave down (although should do at some stage but could be further out) but it is often a price attractor.

    What do you reckon with our TA?

21. 1520 – True enough, it works. Very old technology actually, Sassol makes the tanks, these guys just automated the process for continuous runs with a hopper system.

    However, last I recall, they were not getting big orders for their coal (they talk wet, low BTI Powder River Basin (Wyoming) and dry it out under heat and pressure to make the Kfuel. Kfuel is lighter, drier, higher BTU with lower emissions that the high BTU coals of Appalachia. It looks better when the spread between East and West coals is higher as they were mid year. See wrap for comp of the two coals. In general, the idea is to blend in enough Kfuel with regular coal to get the mix you want of btus and sox and nox emissions. Should have caught on years ago.

    They did have problems with continuous operation and with spontaneous combustion of the finished product. They’ve also taken on quite a bit of debt and had some management changes. If you are really interested try to find out why Mark Sexton, former CEO of the Raton gas company Evergreen quite soon after becoming CEO of what was KFX (then changed to EEE). His former CFO, Kevin Collins now runs it. Anyway, yep it works but its not perfect and its been a very long haul. I helped raise quite a bit of money for these guys and at the end of the day, they did not get done what they said they would.

22. Z – what your take on CHK…with ung up big yesterday and a possible new withdrawal number, are they just gettingh hammered down to 14 for no good reason?

23. Pearl. Yes. You cannot put the word “reason” in a paragraph with stocks this week. Volume is absurdly light so even big names can fall in a vacuum if a single hedge fund decides today is the day to take his tax loss. The whole gassy E&P group suffered Monday and Tuesday so they were not alone. Could see a reversal today on the gas number but I would not put much faith in it lasting. Also, that move yesterday for gas was a bit silly on the back of the “gas-opec” meeting. I’ll add more if it goes back to the old lows of $10 to $12 but for now its just drifting without purpose and may do so through year end along with the rest of the group. I kind of sort of expect some bargain hunting to start next week but it really depends on mood of the general market going into year end. We’re in a holding patten for now.

24. NIcky,
    Thank you for the depth and good morning to you. I think I like using a bit of TA to guard against the likes of the CCJ analysts. I swear those guys are the biggest joke on the planet. I think it was back in August that they were saying that the flooding of one of the company’s own mines was going to result in an increase in yellow cake price, and that would somehow increase the price of CCJ. Nice. I want to send my kid to that school of thought (so he can wind up with a good government job).
    Anyway, it is very nice to see your contributions. I read up a bit on EW, but I still have not had the time to actually begin to learn and use it. It is on the list for 2009.

25. Z- EEE – interesting back story there. That is the Zman value add. I’lll do some digging. My brother got involved with the coal industry thru a deal he worked on about a year ago, I’ll see what he has to say about EEE and their process over christmas dinner.

    FTEK has managed to start making money with their idea. Some big domestic power producers are on their customer list. They moved to the China market about a year ago in a partnership with Itochu. This has been somewhat slow to develop as many government level things in China seem to be. In the meantime they have turned a profit for a few quarters in a row. CEO is a guy named John Norris – longtime electric utility exec. Very straight shooter and has shepherded his balance sheet very nicely in the midst of the chaos.

26. Tater – don’t hold back now.

    Occam – if you are out there, any broad stroke thoughts on the uranium market for 2009? It doesn’t look like a new reactor will get built in the U.S. for at least a decade but China has made noise about adding more as have several European countries and there are a couple of upstarts in the middle east.

27. Thanks for FTEK color, will have a look. I used them and Headwaters in my comp group but never really got to know them well.

28. Tater – my last comment should have said what do you reckon with ‘your’ TA – just wondered about where you think this decline may end for oil?

29. For the tikes:

    http://www.noradsanta.org/en/home.html

30. NFX on the tape resuming some shipments of oil to Big West (bankrupt) refinery.

31. gas and heating oil numbers bearish..oil bullish…just on cnbc

32. crude: down 3.1
    crude at cushing hits record high 28.7 mm barrels

    gasoline: up 3.3
    distillate: up 1.8

    utilization: 84.7% up slightly
    imports: 9.1 mm barrels, off slightly

    gasoline demand fell, pretty unexpected number there.

33. I would not call the oil number bullish, more a function of fog restricted imports. The headline storage number looks good but Cushing piled up to a record which is what oil is keying off right now.

34. OTTAWA (Dow Jones)–U.S. crude inventories in the week ended Dec. 19 smashed
    analysts’ forecasts, falling far more than expected while oil products stocks
    jumped, according to data released Wednesday by the the U.S. Department of
    Energy.
    Crude oil stocks dropped 3.1 million barrels to 318.19 million barrels, the
    department’s Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report. That
    compared with an average forecast of a 200,000-barrel draw in a Dow Jones
    Newswires survey of analysts.
    Gasoline stockpiles jumped 3.3 million barrels to 207.3 million barrels,
    compared with an average survey estimate of a 600,000-barrel gain.
    Distillate stockpiles rose 1.8 million barrels to 135.34 million barrels,
    compared with analysts’ forecasts of a 100,000-barrel draw.
    Refining capacity rose 0.6 percentage points to 84.7%. Analysts had expected a
    0.1 percentage point fall.

    U.S. Oil Inventories:
    For week ended Dec. 19.
    Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
    EIA data: -3.1 +3.3 +1.8 +0.6
    Forecast: -0.2 +0.6 -0.1 -0.1

    Figures in millions of barrels, except for refining capacity, which is
    reported in percentage points. Forecasts are the average of expectations in a
    Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts earlier in the week.
    -By Hyun Young Lee, Dow Jones Newswires
    Dow Jones Newswires
    12-24-08 1042ET

35. Z, well it is xmas eve morning!

    Nicky,
    I am already moving long on USO as it goes down. Obviously I have jumped the gun here, but I have a sense that we have about 3 weeks before people start spending trillions of dollars. Chartwise, I just think that such a drop with no meaningful relief rally is overdone. Add to that a willingness to get the Wall St industry back into the leverage game and I think we see players return to an arena that worked for them in the past. I think the usual .38 retracement will be on the table soon enough. Hard part is the timing, so I’ve given up trying to get an exact bottom. Not my usual time frame, but whatever works (hopefully).

36. Tater – OPEC is going to call another meeting for mid January. I think oil puts in a bottom between now and then. I think Russia finally comes to the table having established how important their cooperation is. I think they want to be seen as an important player in oil and right now they are the biggest yet Saudi gets all the headlines. They also want to be seen as the Saudi Arabia of gas. Lots of talk of social unrest due to faltering economy in Russia also provides an extra incentive to come to the table with a cut to bolster prices.

37. NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Oil inventories have reached a record level at Cushing,
    Okla., according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
    Stocks grew by 1.2 million barrels to 28.7 million barrels at Cushing, the
    closely watched delivery point for the physical barrels underlying the Nymex
    crude futures contract. The previous record was 28 million barrels set in
    April, 2007, after a fire at a Texas refinery sent extra barrels to Cushing.
    Refinery runs are again down in the Cushing area, this time due to low demand
    for gasoline and other fuels. Tight storage space has caused the spread between
    monthly futures contracts to grow to unprecedented levels in recent days. The
    spreads cover the cost of maintaining crude inventories, but have also allowed
    investors to profit from oil in storage, contributing to the builds at Cushing.

    -By Brian Baskin, Dow Jones Newswires

    Dow Jones Newswires
    12-24-08 1044ET

38. Thanks Tater. I too am long and early! Just small and will add. I feel confident we are getting close to a low and not too preoccupied with trying to nail the bottom tick.

39. I heard there was a glitch at the CME – I have’nt had an updated Bond price for nearly two hours now – anyone seeing the same?

40. Want to wish everybody a very happy holiday! Running out to play in the snow and find a last minute gift. Good luck and best wishes.

41. You too Tater. Wishing you a peaceful and prosperous 2009. Have fun.

42. natural gas nos????

43. NG will be released at 12 EST.

44. Its too early in the morning here for me to calculate the difference between EST and Hawaiian time.

    Many thanks to all that is contributed.

    Mele Kalikimaka

45. Another hour El-D. What’s the translation on your last?

46. Merry Christmas

47. Merry Christmas to all

    2009 will be better for energy so long DXO today

48. With a bottom in oil a possibility, sooner than later, can we assume that a rising tide will lift all boats so to speak? Is USO the most direct way to play this? If so are LEAPS a smart move, or what?

49. USO will rise if oil does, but I prefer something with a little more bottom line leverage to a move back to higher ground than that. Something like a SU or a CLR.

50. Z,

    Merry Christmas to one and all.

51. Same to you M!

    Gas numbers in 10 minutes

52. 147, good number.

    Street was 139

    I was 140 to 150.

53. So, oil – eh. Gas, better. Guess it might come down to US against the world.

    Happy Holidays to all. See you Friday.

54. NG yawing at the number so far. It does show that the first weak pulls of the season (those 60 ish bcf withdrawals a few week’s back) were more a function of financial incentive to store gas than they were a hit on the industrial demand complex. This number is in fact very much in line with the five year average pull for this week so cold still = demand. If industrial were truly dying away we would see those small withdrawals continuing given just how much extra supply there is now.

55. …still, the overall numbers on storage aren’t anything to jump up and down about. We are still very well stored for this time of year and will be throughout the season. We made a little progress at eroding the storage surplus to the five year average (ate it down from 3.7 to 3.1%) but its still a surplus and some of the forecasts are calling for a mild January before bitter cold returns in February. If that happens, I’d expect NG to be range bound in the $5.50 to $6.25 area.

56. Ok kids, time to go. I want to wish everyone a Happy Holiday (See, politically correct). I’ll be back online on Monday.

    Xmas note – “A Christmas Story” starts tonight at 8 pm and runs for 24 hours. “I TRIPLE-dog-dare ya!”

57. Nice to see you back Nicky. Merry Christmas and safe travels to all.

58. To Z and all of my friends who make this such a special site, Merry Christmas.
    Better days are coming.
    Blessyaall,
    apbd

59. XOM chart continues to look freakazoidal …

60. NG managed to roll 7 cents to the positive on the storage number.

    Eggnog-thirty. Best Wishes To All. Have A Safe And Happy Christmas or Other Holiday.

    Z

61. Merry Christmas all

62. merry christmas/happy holidays/best wishes to all!

63. Happy Holidays everyone.

64. Seasons Greetings to all

65. Best wishes to all.
    Carpe Deum!

66. Correction:
    Carpe Diem”

67. Drillogix

    Does anyone subscribe to this service which tells the up to the miniute location of Drill Rigs?

    Am seeking to determine the exact location of Pride Cabinda [shallow water jack,up last reported @ North Ebouri offshore Gabon], and GSF Adriatic VI [also a shallow water jack,up last reported @ Vaalco Ebouri platfrom offshore Gabon] .

    The current locations of both rigs is an extremely important tell on whetehr Vaalco has made a siginificant strike.

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