Wary Wednesday – EIA Preview Plus E&P Dance List

Energy Group Sentiment Watch:  Negative. Yesterday's little bounce was weak, especially in oil service. Stocks are trying to find a bottom but could easily go lower with fresh 3 month lows on crude. From my perspective, I saw fine, go ahead, find a bottom. Good news from companies continues to have "flash in the pan" importance and rallies are often quickly reversed. I see no reason to try and force new trades to work in here until such a bottom is plainly in progress.

In Today's Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch - with some crude thoughts on the oil inventory report
  3. Stocks We Care About Today - WIOWIO - The dance list.
  4. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch - No changes. Keeping powder dry.

Commodity Watch:

Crude Oil closed at a 3 month low, down $1.44 at $113.01 yesterday. Russia's move on Georgia and the pipelines that were shut in as a result were not enough to lift crude but the cessation of hostilities was blamed for its continued decline.

  • From The EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook: (EIA's comments in italics)

Preliminary data indicates that global consumption rose by roughly 500,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) during the first half of 2008 compared with year-earlier levels, as a 1.3-million bbl/d rise in consumption outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) was partially countered by an 800,000 bbl/d drop in U.S. consumption compared with year-earlier levels.

Total world oil consumption is expected to grow by a little over 1 million bbl/d during the second half of 2008 and by almost 1 million bbl/d in 2009 compared with year-earlier levels. The projection for 2009 consumption is about 460,000 bbl/d lower than last month's assessment, reflecting lower expectations for consumption in the United States and other OECD countries.  Over the next year and a half, lower OECD consumption is expected to be more than offset by continued non-OECD consumption growth, led by China, the Middle East, Latin America, and India. (IEA is thinking 2009 comes to growth of 930,000 bopd)

And on Supply The EIA Wrote The Following.

Non OPEC. EIA is revising this month's outlook for non-OPEC supply growth in 2008 compared with last month's, largely because of project delays in Asia, lower output growth now expected in the Former Soviet Union, lower growth in Canada caused by the upward revision of 2007 data, and reduced production in Azerbaijan due to the closure of the BTC pipeline.  If new projects come online as now anticipated, total non-OPEC supply is projected to rise by about 510,000 bbl/d in the second half of 2008 and by 850,000 bbl/d in 2009 compared with year-earlier levels.

OPEC.  OPEC crude oil production is projected to drop to about 32.4 million bbl/d in the fourth quarter of 2008, and to decline to 31.6 million bbl/d in 2009.

And Finally, What Has Demand In The U.S. Been Doing Lately. Preliminary June and July 2008 weekly survey data indicate that year-over-year declines in total consumption, which began in August 2007, have narrowed since earlier this year.  During the first 5 months of 2008, total petroleum consumption fell by an average of almost 900,000 bbl/d from the same period in 2007.  During June and July, the year-over-year declines narrowed to just over 400,000 bbl/d.

ZComment: You'll note supply is not expected to keep up with demand. Where they get the OPEC expectation of reduced production in 2009 is something of a mystery but the important point is that Non-OPEC production growth is tentative and does not keep up with demand...so the Saudis still hold the pricing cards. Read the whole STEO here.

  • Iran Watch: Pretty quiet with Russia and Georgia taking the spotlight
  • Russia / Georgia Watch: conflicting reports of ceasefire mixed with bombings. As many as 4 pipelines in the region with a capacity of > 1 mm bopd remain off line due to the conflict. Putin tightens his control over the region's and Europe's access to crude.
  • Tropics Watch: 92L and 93L moving across the Atlantic. Accuweather sums it up pretty well here.

EIA Oil Inventory Preview (estimates from the Reuters survey)


  • The drawdown on gasoline stocks is likely to be larger than forecast as production remains flat at best and demand picks up relative to last week. Do I think another bigger than expected draw on gasoline stocks will stem the tide of dollars flowing away from crude? No. If we get a large draw and gasoline prices spike up a bit I think it will only provide a day's worth of relief before gasoline and crude resume their march lower.


  • On the distillate front, the build is typical for the season and I would not expect a surprise here, or maybe just a slightly lower than expected build.
    • Ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD), diesel with a sulfur content of less than 15 parts per million which is what cars and trucks drive around on, makes up about  60% of current distillate stocks
    • In aggregate distillate stocks are 6.6% above the five year average (as seen in the table above).  Maybe we see some pickup in this segment of demand as we have seen in gasoline.
    • U.S. average retail diesel prices have fallen only 30 cents in the last three weeks and despite the excess quantities in storage price remain 55% above year ago levels. I assume blame higher exports for that. about
    • DistilIate production remains high to year ago levels since that's where the margins have been.
    • In other words, the U.S. has a more than adequate amount of distillate in storage (see chart below) and while we may see a smaller number soon I would not expect a reversal of the seasonal building trend.

Natural Gas closed just about flat at $8.33 yesterday. This morning gas is trading flat to slightly down and will almost certainly try to $8 no matter what happens with crude post inventory numbers. Below $8 and I think we will begin to hear rumblings of capital budget decelerations (slower well hookups) and perhaps regional curtailments out of some E&Ps who would rather wait and sell gas for better prices later.

  • Production From First Floating LNG Facility Goes To Japan. Mitsubishi has agreed to take all of the output from the Progress LNG plant offshore Nigeria for 15 years beginning in 2011. 

Stocks We Care About Today.

Why I Own What I Own: The Dance List for 2H08 Return To Good Graces. A number of  subscribers have requested a list of what I feel are names that will "come to life" (more than the rest) when the sun once again shines on the Energy Patch. I'm choosing to break this out into E&P (names that are oily, gassy, large, and small) and Oil Service (I talk more about oil service tomorrow but the names their are SLB, HAL, NBR, RIG). As always when looking for dance partner there are pros and cons to weigh and ultimately you have to answer the question, what's this costing me compared to my other choices.

Finally to take an analogy a little too far, I'll rank them by performance growth in the back half of the year, assuming oil and natural gas prices don't completely fall out of bed which is akin to the building where the dance takes place blowing up. For greatest near term price appreciation I think these will do better than theirs in the event of a return to stability in the group:

  1. Large Caps: (EOG), (CHK)*  - See WIOWIO and Reports pages for thoughts on this one...nothing has changed in my opinion here.
  2. Mid Caps: (HK), (SD), (CLR), (PXD), (SWN), (NFX)*provide the most upside in terms of stock price appreciation among the mid caps;
  3. Small Caps: (WLL), (PQ)**
  4. Risky little wallflowers that may blossom. (GMXR), (BEXP)


Note 1: (CHK) And (NFX) Gets Asterisks. I think they too will do well but they often lag in terms of performance. For example, while CHK will often grudgingly move higher with a green group due to reasons listed in the next section, the large cap peer I have grouped with them, EOG, can really fly when the group comes into favor. 

Note 2: PQ Get's Double Asterisks. I like this more as an equity than an options play. The others I generally like from both equity and call option perspectives.

Note 3: This is just my opinion and I obviously could be completely wrong but I obviously don't think so.  This is my way of telling you what I'm thinking. If you have questions or something seems contradictory or off base just ask. For fresher thoughts on (SD) and (CHK) see below and recent postings on the Reports tab. Below I've included some knocks on the stories as well. I'll have some more breakouts similar to those below for other names on this list in coming days.

Sand Ridge: 85% natural gas production, all U.S. onshore

  • What's To Like:
    • Growing like a weed, just put up a 35% growth target for next year
    • Management and multiple professionals from (CHK)
    • Operating costs in good shape
    • It just plunged 28% in 2 days after beating earnings and issuing that guidance; analysts are confused as to the reason but suspect it is over a lack of details regarding some recent well results.
    • Moreover, the stock is down 50% since its peak in mid June
    • See 2Q08 Note at the bottom of this post.
    • See my original look at the company here.
    • They have East Texas acreage underlain by the Haynesville/Bossier Shale. This could be worth $1 to 1.5 billion.
  •  What's To Knock:
    • High CO2 content which must be stripped from gas in its core field. This can present production bottlenecks until processing capacity is added...so far this has not been much of problem but its worth noting.
    • Complex geology and a relatively new name mean it is one of the first to get shelled in uncertain times. Unfair, but apparently true.
    • Increasing debt to total cap: began year at 32%, now increased to 46%. Still manageable but it may be reason for a bit lower multiple than the stock has enjoyed until now.
    • Possibility of an equity and debt deal in 2009. Given their current capital program expectations for 2009, they will not need to go to the markets for additional capital if they can sell their East Texas asset.
  • Where's It Trade:
    • P/CF of 7.0x 2009 numbers which should continue to rise. This is a little high to the group but lower than it has been and I'd be pretty comfortable with a multiple closer to 9x given the growth and positives surround the story ... in a more stable natural gas price environment.
    • TEV/EBITDA  7.5x on an '09 EBITDA estimate
    • Given their expected growth and the visibility of said growth and in my opinion the likelihood that they can upgrade that production target early next year to a higher number (say 40%) I think they slightly elevated multiples to the group are warranted.
    • I think they are due a near term bounce from this harsh correction but will take time to grow into that multiple and with that time will come a better understanding of their WTO play.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK): 92% natural gas production, all U.S. onshore

  • What's To Like:
    • Finding costs are falling.
    • Production growth of 20%, 20%, 19% 2008-2010. Few of their peers can provide this level of visibility
    • Domination of major shale plays
    • Economies of scale in drilling
    • Expertise applied to a truly massive prospect inventory
    • Partnering up in their major plays to deflect costs
    • Hedges:
      • Q308 - nearly  90% of expected gas production hedged at just short of $9
      • Q408 - 76% hedged at nearly $9.50.
      • 2009 - about 60%  hedged at almost $9.75.
      • (see below)
    • Based on booked and unbooked reserve potential, NAV can be argued north of $100 with the stock trading at $45.
  • What's To Knock:
    • They have been dubbed a serial filer, issuing equity to supplement cash flow
    • They have gone from outspending cash flow to a plan of staying within their internally generated funds and back again within the span of 6 months...analysts are wary that some other shiny play will catch Aubrey's eye
    • Debt to cap of 57% is high to the group
    • Hedges: people think they are giving away the upside and I would add that when the group sells off, hedges don't save you as fund managers don't use logic when puking up shares.
  • Where's It Trade:
    • P/CF of 3.9x, in line to low with peers
    • TEV/EBITDA of 5.0x in line to a little high to its mostly slower growing peers.
    • Lengthening R/P (reserves/production measured in years) ratio augers for a high P/CF ratio and we saw this begin to materialize
    • The stock hit a high of $74 on July 2 and has since fallen 40% while natural gas has fallen 37% despite their hedge position and given that hedge position, the change in cash flow generation due to this decline is negligible.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: Nada

117 Responses to “Wary Wednesday – EIA Preview Plus E&P Dance List”

  1. 1
    Sambone Says:

    GORI, August 13, 2008 (AFP) – A column of Russian tanks and armored personnel
    carriers Wednesday left Gori and headed in the direction of the Georgian
    capital Tbilisi.
    An AFP journalist saw a Russian column including tanks, APCs and military
    trucks 10 kilometers outside Gori heading in the direction of Tbilisi.

    Dow Jones Newswires
    08-13-08 0759ET

  2. 2
    Sambone Says:

    By Nick Heath

    LONDON (Dow Jones)– Crude oil futures idled near their Tuesday closes in
    London Wednesday as market participants paused to wait for weekly U.S.
    government oil and products stocks data.
    Save a flurry of short-covering, trading was largely on hold ahead of
    Wednesday’s data release, although analysts suggested that prices continue to
    remain pressured to the downside. Concerns over the effect of slowing economic
    growth on energy consumption and an increasingly bearish technical outlook
    continue to weigh on market sentiment and could blunt any bullish data release,
    they said.
    “Today’s U.S. inventory numbers may offer an olive branch to the bulls out
    there but any upside move may only be brief,” said Rob Laughlin, broker at MF
    Global in London.
    At 1130 GMT, the front-month September Brent contract on London’s ICE futures
    exchange was up 49 cents at $111.64 a barrel.
    The front-month September light, sweet, crude contract on the New York
    Mercantile Exchange was trading 45 cents higher at $113.46 a barrel.
    The ICE’s gasoil contract for September delivery was up $4.25 at $1,016.25 a
    metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for September delivery was up 302 points at
    287.34 cents a gallon.
    Analysts are divided over the state of U.S. crude oil stocks, an update on
    which is due to be revealed by the U.S Department of Energy at 1435 GMT
    A Dow Jones Newswires survey of 15 analysts reveals forecasts ranging from a
    build of 2 million barrels to a draw of 2 millions barrels. The average of the
    survey leaves stocks unchanged in the week to Aug. 8.
    Gasoline inventories are seen to have fallen by 1.8 million barrels while
    stocks of distillates are seen to have risen on average by 1.6 million barrels.
    Refinery utilization is expected to have declined by 0.1 percentage point to
    “If crude inventories have increased more than envisaged, or gasoline stocks
    fallen less than predicted, a further retreat in oil prices could be
    triggered,” said Eugen Weinberg at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.
    Concerns of lasting damage to oil transporting infrastructure in the Caucasus
    eased Wednesday following the declaration of a ceasefire between Georgia and
    Russia late Tuesday.
    Nonetheless, key pipelines traversing Georgia – an import transit region for
    Caspian crude to Europe and beyond – remained shutdown Wednesday. The 1 million
    barrel a day capacity Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline remains sidelined due to a
    fire on a Turkish section of the link, unrelated to the conflict in Georgia.
    However, BP PLC (BP) largest shareholder of the 150,000 barrel-a-day Baku-Supsa
    line, transporting Azeri crude to the Black Sea, was shutdown as a precaution
    Tuesday and flows remained suspended Wednesday.
    “The whole crisis hardly mattered much to the energy markets to start with, as
    participants were left cold by the fighting all along. However, the fact that
    the fighting is declared to be officially over, arguably opened the way
    yesterday for more energy-related selling to set in,” said Edward Meir, analyst
    at MF Global in New York.
    The U.S. dollar, recent strengthening of which has helped drive crude lower in
    recent weeks, continued to firm against most major currencies Wednesday.
    The strength in the greenback has helped stimulate selling of crude futures as
    investors reverse their previous purchases designed to hedge against earlier
    weakness in the dollar.
    “With the dollar strengthening the whole purpose of putting money in oil,
    relatively speaking, has diminished somewhat,” said Philip Moufarrige, a broker
    at ICAP in London.
    While attention was focussed squarely on Wednesday’s U.S. Department of Energy
    data, markets may be paying closer attention to weather charts as the week
    wears on, analysts said.
    According to the U.S. National Hurricane Center, a tropical wave located about
    400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles may form a tropical depression during the
    next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
    “If we get stats out of the way and move towards the latter half of the week,
    that will be the focus. It may be enough to spark a bit of short-covering,”
    said Jim Rintoul, analyst at London-based trade advisory TheOilTrader.com.
    -By Nick Heath; Dow Jones Newswires

    Dow Jones Newswires
    08-13-08 0750ET

  3. 3
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: You have a figure for CHK of 57% debt to cap. Their most recent PR stated 44%. They have always claimed they do not want to go over 50%. Are you adding back in unfunded pension liabilities or something else? Thks

  4. 4
    Sambone Says:

    For Nicky


  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Tom – I was looking at debt to book cap.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    More on Russia/Georgia … not that the oil market cares but here’s the latest.


  7. 7
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z – thanks for your comments and observations on CHK and SD. looking forward to HK, CLR, SWN, and WLL.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Gee thanks BOP, now I have to write a post tomorrow too?! ;->

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    NG not liking the latest “disorganized” comments about Invest 92 L.

    Stocks opening mixed, mostly red, inclination is to not trust the slight uptick in oil pre EIA numbers.

  10. 10
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z – nah. take your time. you can have ’til friday, k?

  11. 11
    Dman Says:

    This graph makes interesting viewing, showing oil versus a 30% per year exponential trend curve.


    It’s about a week old, so it shows only a 14% correction, versus the current price with oil about 23% off its high, Squinting at the graph suggests that the trendline value is now around $108.

    On a different note: anyone remember solar energy? YGE now at $14 & something

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    BOP – whew! thx.

    I think the game plan for most fund managers / analysts /traders rest of week is one eye on market/ one on Olympics.

  13. 13
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z – the Olympics are better looking…

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    D – yep, been watching the solars for an entry on puts into the bigger names. Premiums are unreal here. They have held up well but if oil is to make fresh lows how you get people staying in love with alt energy I do not know.

  15. 15
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    no reason to play the mini-micro-caps… but SCU sure took a whacking. Coker Palmer came out with a piece this morning and reiterated their $2.00 PT. However, SCU needs to do some asset sales (expect the PRB properties to go) to clean up the balance sheet. not a good place to be in this mrkt.

    just an update.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    BOP – thanks, did not see. Still own some of that. Any mention of their non-operated Fayetteville Shales ops? They used to have a balance sheet even a mother could not love. Need to do an update there.

  17. 17
    Sambone Says:

    By Brian Baskin

    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Crude oil futures traded higher Wednesday ahead of the
    release of U.S. oil and product inventory figures. Few in the market expect the
    data to shake oil prices out of a month-long slide, however.
    Light, sweet crude for September delivery traded 43 cents, or 0.4%, higher at
    $113.44 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE
    futures exchange 43 cents higher at $111.58 a barrel.
    Futures have dropped 22% from an all-time intraday high of $147.27 a barrel on
    July 11, including declines in six of the last seven sessions. Concerns about
    demand in the developed world has forced the drop, with the International
    Energy Agency forecasting a 700,000 barrel drop in oil consumption in North
    America and Europe this year.
    The U.S. economy remains on course for a weak second half of the year, giving
    the market little hope for a demand rebound in the short term.
    “The market is consolidating, but it’s working its way south,” said Tony
    Rosado, a broker with GA Global Markets in New York.
    As a result, weekly oil and product inventory data due out from the U.S.
    Energy Information Administration is seen providing a temporary stop to
    declines, if that. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect no change in
    oil inventories for the week ending Aug. 8, as well as a 1.8 million barrel
    draw in gasoline stocks and a 1.6 million barrel build in distillate
    inventories. Refinery utilization, already at a 17-year low, is expected to
    drop by 0.1 percentage points.
    A surprise oil inventory draw would provide some short-term upward momentum,
    while a build would likely lead to longer-lasting declines, analysts said.
    Russia and Georgia agreed to a ceasefire Tuesday after several days of heavy
    fighting, ending in principle the oil market’s main distraction from the U.S.
    economy. Georgian officials claimed that Russian forces were still on the
    offensive, and BP PLC (BP) shut down its 150,000 barrel-a-day Baku-Supsa oil
    pipeline as a precaution.
    The 1 million barrel-a-day Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, the largest running
    through the country, was already shut down due to a fire last week along its
    Turkish portion.
    Oil prices had not moved significantly due to the conflict, despite Georgia’s
    role in transporting crude from the Black Sea to European markets.
    Front-month September reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, recently
    traded up 3.61 cents, or 1.3%, at 2.8793 a gallon. September heating oil traded
    38 points, or 0.1%, higher at $3.0819 a gallon.

    -By Brian Baskin, Dow Jones Newswires

    Dow Jones Newswires
    08-13-08 0926ET

  18. 18
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z – the new CEO was making some headway. but there were some pipeline problems in the PRB (big surprise) that put them in default of their production covenant on their credit facility. (not sure they would have been in compliance anyway… production ramp has been slower than anticipated.)

    have drilled 7 operated wells in the FS with pretty good results. selling the PRB would give them dry powder to concentrate on expanding their program there.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    NG getting slapped now, down 18 cents at 8.16, this is cool august and less of a threat in the Atlantic. So far, the stocks, both oily and gassy names only care about the machinations of crude oil today. Nice to see pretty ubiquitous green on top of small gains yesterday. Obviously, I don’t put a lot of stock in oil or in the stock’s green up this am pre #s

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    BOP – any word on whether or not they are getting AFE’d to death on the non-op FS stuff? Thanks.

  21. 21
    1520sbroad Says:

    article in WSJ this morning about Nat gas home heating conversions in northeast. i don’t have a link but it was on the front of the 4th section.

    we just switched from heating oil to gas. The crew of guys that ran the line from the house to the street said they are booked until late october and every time they look at their calendar the work just keeps coming. the HVAC guys that installed the new furnace said they are booked for conversions until january.

  22. 22
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z – good question. haven’t heard that, but don’t know the answer. will ask around.

  23. 23
    cadillac Says:

    Dman – For the last few months I have been selling puts on YGE because of the huge option premium. It was almost too easy. I did it for three months successfully. I didn’t do it for Aug, because I have been gunshy on everything.

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Thanks 1520, will go read it. Gassification has been on an accelerating trend in the north east since the late 1990s but I suspect it is really cranking up this year. Good reason to be interested in the Marcellus and part of the reason Appalachia trades at a premium at times to Henry Hub gas. Again, will read and will take a look at some state demand data as I have been looking mostly at elec gen to be the add on the demand side.

    One question, was the idea to convert yours or were you convinced by a pitch from a utility. Just want to know if they sent you literature on monthly cost savings for the typical home in the typical winter.

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    NG down 27 cents now, going for 8 even.

  26. 26
    texana Says:

    viewpoint for possible bottom http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm SD,is going to have prove itself to the big boys before they will come back into the stock. Most don’t want to be holding large positions in a stock that can loose 25% of it’s value in 2 days. A cursory look back at the stock rise in May & June relates to Ward’s 100 mil $ purchases. Probably trying to borrow another 100mil$ now. That might be hard since his SD stock holdings lost 200mil$ in 2 days and he might have a margin call.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Tex – I think the move may have had something to do with his very public buy in but the Street gave a lot more credit to their new sweet gas wells during that rally. I think they will again when prices stabilize. All of these stocks in the high p/CF echelons can drop like that if in panic mode.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    oil down 0.4 mm barrles
    gasoline down 6.4 mm barrels – gotta say see the post on that one.
    distillate – wow…DECREASED by 1.7 mm barrels.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Time for a rally in oil and the energy groups kids. If product demand of this size doesn’t do it I’ll be eating a hat.

    Utilization off a bit to 85.9
    crude imports ticked off a little but are still a pretty good sized 9.7 mm bopd

    Flat gasoline demand
    Distillate ticked up nicely.

  30. 30
    gaamblor Says:

    liking the refiners here on that gas number?

  31. 31
    texana Says:

    looks like gdp gets taken out before gmxr, my guess hk

  32. 32
    Nicky Says:

    morning all. Options expiry for crude oil is Friday — CNBC reporting the huge open interest at the 110 level…..

  33. 33
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Tex: Don’t worry about Tom Ward having margin calls. He has the same cash flow that Aubrey has. They each pay their accountants $450,000 a year in fees.

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Gaamblor – yes, and on the distillate numbers as well. That’s where the margins have been and that’s what I was concerned about in the post…that they could be overstocked enough to dent HO prices more soon. This draw on dist is out of bounds with thinking and the seasonal norm.

    Tex – you basing that on the move today or something else?

    Morning Nicky – last month Epperson pointed that out at 120 on Wednesday saying it would act as a draw on crude at the time. The next day she said it was 125. Better watch her on #s.

  35. 35
    Nicky Says:

    Z – it wasn’t her giving the expiry number it was a trader. That said who knows! Something still nags away that they may want to try for 110 though. Chart would look better with a lower low too!!

  36. 36
    Nicky Says:

    I am also looking at metals – the move off yesterday’s low is corrective arguing for another low before a decent bounce too…

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    Agreed lower low crude likely as they just want it now.

    Did you note the bullet above talking about more recent data showing demand off half what it was 1H? This kind of data may start to alter some thinking. When you combine that with non-OEDC growth expectations you could see less U.S. centric thinking in crude prices.

  38. 38
    texana Says:

    accumulation pattern on chart along with hbp properties in main haynes fairway. Just a guess, but at these stock prices and nothing available to lease its going to start happening soon. But what do I know I’m long sd.

  39. 39
    Sambone Says:

    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–U.S. crude-oil inventories in the week ended Aug. 8 fell
    slightly, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of
    Energy, contrasting with expectations they would hold steady.
    Crude stockpiles, dropped 400,000 barrels to 296.5 million barrels, the
    department’s Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report. On
    average, analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected no change in
    crude inventories.
    Gasoline stockpiles fell 6.4 million barrels to 202.8 million barrels,
    compared with an average survey estimate of a 1.8 million-barrel draw.
    Distillate stockpiles fell 1.7 million barrels to 131.6 million barrels,
    compared with analysts’ forecasts of a 1.6 million-barrel gain.
    Refinery use fell 1.1 percentage points to 85.9% of capacity. Analysts had
    expected a 0.1 percentage point fall.
    U.S. Oil Inventories:
    For week ended Aug. 8.
    Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
    EIA data: -0.4 -6.4 -1.7 -1.1
    Forecast: unch -1.8 +1.6 -0.1

    Figures in millions of barrels, except for refining capacity, which is
    reported in percentage points. Forecasts are the average of expectations in a
    Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts earlier in the week.

    -By Gregory Meyer, Dow Jones Newswires
    Dow Jones Newswires
    08-13-08 1044ET

  40. 40
    1520sbroad Says:

    #24 – we bought the worst house and i mean worst on a very nice block. it came with a lovely circa 1982 oil burner. no gas company literature was needed for me to switch, i knew it from the day we bought the house. i had never lived in a house with oil heat – i grew up in the upper midwest where most everything was gas. i didn’t care for the whole heating oil idea – deliveries, burns a bit dirtier, soot in the basement near the burner etc.

    to give you some support for the conversion idea – the gas company put the line in for free if you connect 3+ appliances to it (water heater, furnace, range, fireplace in our case) they offer $600 rebates on new 90% efficient gas heaters (this pays for the upgrade from an 80% to 90% unit) NJR is our gas company and the whole conversion thing couldn’t have been easier. We did a bigger renovation that included a lot of other plumbing and HVAC work so i would have to work a little harder to figure out the full cost for the conversion.

    The heating oil distributor we used gave us a hard time because we had a yearly contract with them where we spread our heating oil bill over 12 months. We had to pay $100 to get out of that. We still had about 100 gals of heating oil in our tank when we disconnected it – i had a guy come pump it out and he paid me $300 for the oil (diesel retail was $5 a gallon at the time.) I also sold the heating oil tank – we had an above ground relatively new model – to a guy that was setting up a biodiesel operation.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Tex – I don’t think SD has a problem, ya sound bitter due to price but looking at the quarter can you honestly say that was anything but an over reaction in a turbo weak market?

  42. 42
    1520sbroad Says:

    all in the northeast nat gas providers have taken on the conversion issue head on and are willing to provide big rebates, recommend HVAC contractors (or in some cases they have their own install division). Obviously good for overall demand. Not sure the big picture impact but it has to be positive at the margin.

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    Thanks 1520, good color.

    By the way, just installed a Takagi tankless water heater…could not be happier. Why heat a big tank of water 24/7/365 for 10 years and then have the thing leak on you? Bracketed to the back wall of the house so no new duct work.

  44. 44
    1520sbroad Says:

    plumber is coming back later this month to do the hot water heater. we have been debating tankless vs. tanked model. any issues? we have 2 kids and a 3rd on the way, i have heard the multiple showers at peak times are a problem for the tankless models.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    1520 – in that case I’d get 2. It is endless and hot (not warm like some plumbers told me) but it does suffer some pressure issues when multi-tasking.

  46. 46
    1520sbroad Says:

    hmmm – need more positivity from the energy patch to afford the double barrel hot water heater set up.

    Our plumber said the same thing, he said he has put one into some homes and shortly therafter he will go back and install a second one.

  47. 47
    Sambone Says:

    Wow, the prez

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Looking down the barrel of 12 to 14 scud positions for August. Nice job. Won’t look for getting even as that trap never plays but if we get some follow through tomorrow 2 or 3 of those may come back from the dead. What a brutal 6 weeks.

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    Can one of you TA guys take a look at the XLE? This looks like a successful test of March lows and due for a nice sized bounce.

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    Sam – re 47?

    RIG and SLB on the dance list, outperforming a bit.

  51. 51
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    SCU – although they have a fractional interest in about 30 non-operated wells in the FS, their ownership percentage in all but one is fairly small. Capital calls during the quarter probably around $500k. the bank is working with SCU and not going to pull the plug on the relationship. that said, SCU is looking for ways to reduce their debt outstanding. issuing equity is not an option at these levels, so expect to see some sort of asset sale or JV. their acreage in the FS is in prime location and their PRB reserves are attractive. So, will just be a matter of what they chose to do. There are several options available, apparently.

    just an update

  52. 52
    Sambone Says:

    Prez is sending the C-17’s and the Navy for humanitarian reasons. Hmmm, I wonder how Putin will regard that? This thing could get real dicey, real quick.

  53. 53
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG continues to rebound from the 2ndary. Maybe the CEO is out golfing with some of the folks at The Oil & Gas Conf, as i can’t see that they are actually presenting.

    the main problem with the mini-micros is that the smids and large caps have been beated down just as much. no need to go bottom-fishing when the tuna are running!

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    “this business will get out of control…it will get out of control and we’ll be lucky to live through it”

  55. 55
    Sambone Says:

    Great movie

  56. 56
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG… maybe the results from the Peak Energy well are leaking out?

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Sam – thought it applied, know it’s not Friday but slow days on the site are meant for reading, conference calls, the Olympics, and movie quotes.

    KOG – could be but it could just be the general updraft in the group.

    This kind of move in oil can get analysts like the Goldman dream team off the bench.

    NG up 5 cents now with oil up nearly $3.

  58. 58
    VTZ Says:

    Is anybody looking to add into this rally?

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    BOP – agree completely re second part #53.

    Case in point QBC, up 10%. Have to admit, I am tempted to go back into those waters as it retreated from $5 where we sold back through $4 after gong Amex. If anybody does get taken out of play in the Haynesville, that one will jump first day over $5.

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    V- I’m considering it, just waiting for lunch to see if the gains hold. Going to be punting some very hurt Augusts into this and may add some lower strike Septembers but I’m in no rush as we’ve seen this before and the arguments the bears have been using, however one sided, are still out there on oil.

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    HK in 30 minutes at the Denver O&G conf.

    Later PVA, APC and CRR who you have trouble drilling a shale well without.

  62. 62
    Fred Says:

    Uncle Phil singing American Pie today:


  63. 63
    zman Says:

    Thanks Fred – no comment other than to say, you’ve got to tell both sides of the story, every day and not just which direction your book is parked…otherwise, you lose credibility…at least to me.

    On his nat gas trade he would have been stopped out at 8.10 with contract now up 20 cents on the day at 8.51.

    His whole thesis (song) about the day the demand died is written on a day where we see big product draws and higher distillate demand.

  64. 64
    1520sbroad Says:

    z – PQ – double asterisk due to lighter options trade, better than average common valuation or some other reason? I have been trying to work them up fully – be curious to see further thoughts on them from you – if it is coming in the next few days just let me know.

  65. 65
    tater Says:

    I am out in the sticks on a VERY slow connection. Didn’t have opportunity to update most of the charts but from what I see on the XLE daily, the support at 73.50 is now resistance to upward price movement even though the break of the downtrend looks real (as it had a good test down to uptrend line).
    Can’t get an update on SLB, but watch the resistance from the gap for a better price should you decide to get long. (there is a 60 min chart showing this, I agree that SLB is due to go up, but I think it will be fairly temporary due to TA).

    XLE (first or second page)


    Also, some of TA is done with the idea of being able to play follow the leader on the money movements of the big boys, other TA is based on the idea of being aware of “crowd” emotions. Just want to say that if anybody is contemplating the idea of being able to sell a position once price gets back up to a place that you would like to sell at, there is a very good chance that others are thinking exactly the same thing (creating “overhead resistance” to price movements back up after big sell-offs). Good luck today

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    Re PQ – very cheap, didn’t care for the lack of cost control on a per unit in 2Q but that’s not the reason for **, just don’t like those spreads on the options/high premiums on the options. Many on the Street have them PT with high 20s. One other thing, they seem to have an A team and a B team for communicating with the Street. Last press release had about as much thought put into it as a Fed release. The one before was much better. Ya never know what your going to get in terms of color.

    HK call starting.

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    Never mind re HK, looks like the schedule is off.

  68. 68
    kiaora Says:

    Hey Tater….stockcharts wants a password, etc. to view what you put up.

  69. 69
    Fred Says:

    Z – Yah, he must have written it before the EIA report came in.

  70. 70
    tater Says:

    Sorry, this is the correct link to charts:


    You know that commercial where that English person is finding the internet in the middle of a lake? Somebody get his little butt out where I am.

  71. 71
    ddaley Says:

    Thanks fro the Barbera, #26. One more TA bullish view for CL. He points out “any move above the $93.00 level on USO” is bullish. 93.66 now.

    Unpleasant news from Ukraine:
    DJ reports Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko signed a decree imposing new restrictions on Russia’s Black Sea fleet, which is based in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol, the presidency said. The restrictions included a requirement that the Black Sea fleet seek the permission of Ukraine’s armed forces “at least 72 hours prior to ships or aircraft crossing the Ukrainian border,” Yushchenko’s office said in a statement. If Russia does not fulfill the new requirements, Ukraine “may demand that naval ships…and aircraft of the Black Sea fleet leave” Ukraine’s territory immediately, the statement said.

  72. 72
    1520sbroad Says:

    sounds like HK is going to follow the guy talking now on the Enercom call – he is from ATP i think

  73. 73
    scottjasonm Says:

    wow, BEXP up almost 10%. Could a miracle happen for those Aug $15’s? (I doubt it…)

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    Thanks much Tater.

    1520 – yes, they just have them strung together. I may take a little HK for a trade on the 30s. Saw the Pickering comment this morning saying own it. At least you can say you know there will not be a deal in the next week or so, lol.

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    Scott – very much doubt as well, need another two days like this for that one. I did put it on my dance list for a rapid turn but this kind of day is really not what I meant.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    ZTRADES: Added HK August $30 and September $30 calls for $0.85 (high, high risk) and $3.00 respectively.

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    That HK slide 9 re IRR’s is pretty incredible. With their $5,000 avg per acre they see gas price of high $8s pushing IRR per well into triple digits. Get up to $11 gas and you are above 200% IRR.

  78. 78
    Nicky Says:

    Oil – move up starting to look a touch lofty for a wave iv. Needs to stay below 118.50 I would say… above 121.50 and we are likely in ii or b up…

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    HK bumping up against $30, nothing really new on the call. I’ll hold those August calls for a little bit for a play on follow on strength later today. If we can get oil to close up here (up $4 now) we could see a morning pop in the group.

  80. 80
    1520sbroad Says:

    footnotes on slide 12 of HK presentation show that they have been busy – started hitting their revolver – 250m, and sold out some securities to ramp up cash. That slide 9 is crazy. i kind of rolled by that slide until i was actually listening to the call – wow.

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    1520 – thanks, I see that. I like the potential here but I think Floyd is playing fast and loose with the language. They said on the 2Q call there was nothing on the revolver and they had $500 mm in cash. Then they do a deal less than a week later.

    and I quote:

    “we ended the quarter with just under $500 million of cash and nothing drawn on our revolving credit facility, and that equates to a net debt to cap of about 30%.”

    So they went on a big shopping spree over the weekend.

  82. 82
    Sambone Says:

    By Brian Baskin

    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Crude oil futures traded above $117 a barrel for the
    first time since Aug. 8 as U.S. gasoline inventories fell far more than
    Light, sweet crude for September delivery traded $4.02, or 3.6%, higher at
    $117.03 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. September Brent crude on
    the ICE futures exchange traded $3.49 higher at $114.64 a barrel.
    Futures jumped after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 6.4
    million barrel drop in gasoline inventories for the week ending Aug. 8, more
    than three times the average analyst forecast. Gasoline futures surged on the
    data, pulling oil higher. Front-month September reformulated gasoline
    blendstock, or RBOB, traded 12.04 cents, or 4.2%, higher at $2.9636 a gallon.
    “We would expect gasoline futures to provide some upside leadership near
    term,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Assoc., a trading
    advisory firm.
    The draw came from refiners producing less, rather than drivers consuming
    more. Gasoline demand for the month ending Aug. 8 was down 1.8% from the same
    time last year. Refiners used 14.8 million barrels a day in the week ending
    Aug. 8, the lowest level for that week since 1996. A utilization rate of 85.9%
    is the lowest ever reported for August by the EIA.
    The market was already primed to rally on the data, having closed above the
    key technical support level of $113 a barrel Tuesday, albeit by one cent.
    “We held, we will now rally,” said Dean Hazelcorn, a trader with Coquest Inc.
    in Dallas.
    Oil inventories fell by 400,000 barrels, though data was skewed by Tropical
    Storm Edouard, which delayed some oil shipments on the Gulf Coast last week.
    Distillate inventories, which include heating oil and diesel, fell by 1.7
    million barrels, where analysts had forecasted a build of 1.6 million barrels.
    September heating oil traded 9.20 cents, or 3%, higher at $3.1701 a gallon.

    -By Brian Baskin, Dow Jones Newswires

    Dow Jones Newswires
    08-13-08 1327ET

  83. 83
    1520sbroad Says:

    i took that to mean that on 6/30 they revolver was undrawn but on 8/11 the balance outstanding was $260 million. I meant they were busy between 6/30 and 8/11.

  84. 84
    1520sbroad Says:

    He certainly could have said something about it during the call but i guess he didn’t want to tip his hand as to their acreage acquisition moves.

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    CLR and BEXP both having very good days, guess I should have had GDP on my list too but I was trying to limit it and went for a little lower valuation names as well as underlying asset based strength. GMXR looking to do $9+ CFPS next year vs GDP looking for $6+.

    1520, you are right, just read it again. Still, I like when they give a more current picture than the Q and had it as current in my notes. So not as much as a bait and switch as I was thinking but still you don’t mention that strength of balance sheet when you are planning a deal in the next few days unless you are trying to convince people that a deal is not around the corner.

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: Added to the HK Aug $30s for 0.70.

  87. 87
    ram Says:

    Hopefully those HK 30’s don’t get pinned too soon.

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    Ram – yeah, hope not too, think we may get a pop in morning but its hard to tell these days, at least oil did not tank into the close. Still hold those SD’s by the way and probably should have turned em loose by now.

  89. 89
    1520sbroad Says:

    #85 – agreed that the semblance of bait and switch is just as bad as bait and switch. I was more interested in the fact that they managed to spend $260m in a month – the pace of acreage acquisition is pretty quick.

  90. 90
    ram Says:

    Thanks for the reminder on the SD’s.

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    Have to upgrade Street sentiment on the group from negative to cautiously optimistic. Turning into a very green day post oil’s close.

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    I think the near term bottom is in for refiners. Margins look to have bottom but the sentiment there is much improved. That could evaporate if oil rockets on us but 1) I don’t see that and 2) this move in distillates is a change from prior Street thinking and 3) when you break it down low sulfur vs high, heating oil prices will be supported by winter as I was saying earlier today, that there is less low sulfur dist around to heat with. Thinking will add SUN, more VLO and maybe some TSO calls, all September.

  93. 93
    Sambone Says:

    I wonder if they will investigate GS? Nah

    WASHINGTON, Aug 13 (Reuters) – The Federal Trade Commission
    proposed U.S. government rules on Wednesday to fight
    manipulation in the oil market, where prices hit a record $147
    a barrel last month.
    The commission, under pressure to investigate possible
    manipulation of gasoline and other fuel prices, said its rules
    would bar any fraud or deceit in the purchase or sale of crude
    oil, gasoline or other petroleum product.
    “Fraudulent or deceptive acts, including false reporting to
    private reporting services or misleading announcements by
    refineries, pipelines or investment banks, may be covered by
    the proposed rule. Similarly, trading practices in physical or
    futures markets may also be covered,” the agency said in a
    “Similarly, trading practices in physical or futures
    markets may also be covered,” the FTC said.
    Those who violate the rule would be subject to civil
    penalties of up to $1 million per violation per day, the
    commission said.
    The proposed rules will be published in the Federal
    Register of new government regulations on Aug. 19 and will open
    to public comment until Sept. 18.
    (Reporting by Diane Bartz; editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)

    Wed Aug 13 19:18:41 2008 -GMT

  94. 94
    Sambone Says:

    By Brian Baskin

    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Crude oil futures settled higher Wednesday as a surprise
    dive in gasoline inventories sparked what many in the market believe will be a
    short-lived rally.
    Light, sweet crude for September delivery settled $2.99, or 2.7%, higher at
    $116 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. September Brent crude on the
    ICE futures exchange closed $2.21 higher at $113.36 a barrel.
    Gasoline stocks plunged by 6.4 million barrels in the week ending Aug. 8, the
    U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday. The draw was more
    than three times the average analyst forecast, and marked the third straight
    weekly decline for gasoline inventories.
    Crude futures had dropped 22% since July 15, largely on concerns about U.S.
    gasoline demand. The big draw on gasoline inventories provided the market an
    opportunity to halt the slide, at least temporarily.
    “The market had come a long way, it needed a correction and a bounce,” said
    Kyle Cooper, director of research for IAF Advisors in Houston, who cautioned
    that the impact of the data would be fleeting. “It was all associated with
    supply, not demand. I don’t expect us to repeat.”
    While the size of the draw shocked oil and product futures higher, it did
    little to assuage fears of a prolonged downturn in U.S. demand. The three weeks
    of draws have done little more than burn off excess supplies. Gasoline
    inventories are now at almost exactly the five-year average, while demand is
    still 1.8% below year-ago levels, according to the EIA.
    “It would appear that there is as yet little cause for concern” about
    dwindling gasoline supplies, wrote analysts with JBC Energy in Vienna.
    Wednesday’s rally may have had more to do with technical trading, with
    gasoline providing the initial spark, market participants said.
    Oil prices settled at $113.01 a barrel on Tuesday, one cent above a key
    technical support level. After a month of near-constant declines, futures
    proved resistant to crossing below $113, giving courage to investors who had
    been waiting for a floor to form.
    “We held – we will now rally,” said Dean Hazelcorn, a trader with Coquest Inc.
    in Dallas.
    The market may have limited upside, however. As futures plunged, many traders
    took out puts, or options to sell, when oil hit various prices between $120 and
    $100 a barrel. Those options expire Friday, creating a natural resistance in
    the market to moving much higher than Wednesday’s settlement.
    A “recovery still faces the headwinds generated by open interest accumulated
    on puts at $115 and $120,” wrote Harry Tchilinguirian, senior oil market
    analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Derivatives in London.
    Front-month September reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, settled 8.91
    cents, or 3.1%, higher at $2.9323 a gallon. September heating oil settled 5.36
    cents, or 1.7%, higher at $3.1317 a gallon.

    -By Brian Baskin, Dow Jones Newswires
    Dow Jones Newswires
    08-13-08 1504ET

  95. 95
    Dman Says:

    Iran watch – from the department of making it up as you go along:

    (via AP)

    Iranian minister’s Oxford degree apparently fake

    Aug 13th, 2008 | CAIRO, Egypt — Iran’s new interior minister has raised an uproar among lawmakers and Iranian media over an apparently fake claim that he holds an honorary doctorate from Britain’s Oxford University. To back his case, he’s shown off a degree certificate riddled with spelling and grammar mistakes.


  96. 96
    zman Says:

    A hah, I knew there was something not right about that government, lol.

  97. 97
    VTZ Says:

    For elduque – regarding income trusts the other day, HTE (harvest) is a refining income trust, they reported inline earnings yesterday with good upstream and miserable downstream. If you think refining might turn around they could be a decent play. Their payout ratio was recently reduced but they pay 0.30 a month I think. Just another name for you to look at.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    Re 94. Story kind of misses the distillate side but it is interesting to see them already trying to talk the numbers down. Nevermind that we went from big surplus on gasoline three weeks ago to inline with the 5 year average today, because demand is not falling off a cliff, but production is. Nevermind that the tipping point for gasoline demand is pretty much established at $4 and the American driver’s propensity to conserve has been greatly exagerated. These traders pick a direction and go with it for 6 to 8 weeks or until the chart tells them to switch and they then lemming the other direction.

  99. 99
    doc Says:

    Do you consider mmr and oih attractive at current levels?

  100. 100
    zman Says:

    MMR – sort of interesting down here based on its own merits. I have not seen anything new on Blackbeard and I will not reenter the name prior to an announcement there.

    OIH – I like parts of it better than others. Today’s post had OIH components for the dance list of SLB, HAL, NBR which I either own stock in or options and RIG which I have not yet figured out the timing on. I do think the OIH is due a pretty good bounce and that this is only the beginning with 200+ around the near term corner. In most portions of service, business is very good but the stocks are being burdened from both oil and gas price drops with the expectation that sooner or later you will see capex reductions. Fundamentally I think this is more than played out in the names and the cap ex increases we have seen over the last 6 months are no longer reflected in the names.

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    Group closed at HOD, nice.

    Beer thirty!

  102. 102
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: If distillate inventory has gone from surplus to inline, and trader psychology changes who would benefit most from that change?

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    Tom – best guess is VLO.

  104. 104
    Bleemus Says:

    PBR Petrobras Brasileiro, GALP oil discovery announced on oil-regulator website – Bloomberg

  105. 105
    ddaley Says:

    First piece I have seen that shows how threatening Russia’s move may be to the flow of oil to the West. NYT:

  106. 106
    ddaley Says:


  107. 107
    zman Says:

    whats up DD?

  108. 108
    Cirujano Plastico Monterrey Says:

    Cirujano Plastico…

    Zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… » Blog Archive » Wary Wednesday – EIA Preview Plus E&P Dance List…

  109. 109
    Unrivaled Seduction Says:

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  110. 110
    Audio Works Says:

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  111. 111
    allmäns pension Says:

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  112. 112
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  113. 113
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  114. 114
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  115. 115
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  116. 116
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  117. 117
    wealth passively Says:

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