Friday Morning – EOG Beats

Posted on by zman

Commodity Watch:

  • Oil rallied yesterday with the equity markets and news that Shell would see another 130,000 bopd of production curtailed in Nigeria after failing to fixed a leaking pipeline, closing up $0.97 to $88.11. This morning oil is trading up $0.50 to $0.75.
  • OPEC Watch: Sources say the cartel may cut production to defend $80.
  • $12 B in Venezeulan assets frozen. U.S. and U.K. courts made the move to aid (XOM), (COP) and others in their dispute with Chavez. 

  • Natural Gas' immediate reaction to a bigger than expect 200 Bcf withdrawal was to double the day's gain to a dime. All eyes remain on the weather and this current week's early warmth is putting a cap on any meaningful rally beyond $8. After then selling off with the market gas recovered to close up $0.12 at $8.11. I still expect gas to sell off into the mid $7s over the next couple of weeks but that the erosion of the storage overhang to act as a floor under gas prices, baring early Spring-like weather. This morning gas is trading slightly higher.

    The current 12 month strip is at $8.46 and looks like this.

    Strip Vs The Street:

    gas-strip-vs-street.jpg

Click here to see last night's gas storage report review.

Holdings Watch: 

  • (DRYS) Entered March $80 Calls for $4.80. Last bid $4.30.
  • (DRYS) Exited March $60 Calls for $11.95, up 113%. 
  • (COP) Entered February $75 Calls for $1.06. Last bid $1.21.
  • (RIG) Exited the Feb $130 Calls, down 71%.

Earnings Watch & Other Stocks of Interest:

EOG Reports A Beat and Respectable Reserve Figures

  • EPS: Reported $1.44 ($1.26 after excluding one time items) vs expectations of $0.96.
  • CFPS of $3.33 vs expectations of $3.24.
  • Production came in at 2% sequential and 9% YoY growth fro the quarter
  • Annual volumes were up 11%.

Production Guidance:

  • Oil (11% of current production) taking guidance up from 33 to 36% YoY growth primarily due to the Bakken of North Dakota.
  • Natural gas liquids (almost 5% of current production) are expected to grow 40% in 2008 - the result of more liquids rich gas from the Barnett Shale. Prices for NGL's (primarily propane, butane, and pentane) track oil prices more closely than gas so you can bet they will strip all they can out of the stream.
  • Total company growth seen of 15% - all growth coming from U.S. This is the middle of the previous guidance range of 13 to 17%. The change in mix to a higher mix of oil and NGL's will almost certainly improve margins.

Note on pricing: Trinidad came in at $3.84 per Mcfe which is up 32% YoY. This is a nice boon for a stranded gas prices and the second note in the past 24 hours (the first being from APA) showing how the international gas markets are showing improvement around the globe.

 

Reserves Showed Strong Reserve Replacement and Low Finding Costs. I don't often talk about finding costs as with the exception fo (CHK) and one or two other E&P's , most producers limit reserve reporting to once per year. Here's a quick if somewhat overly simplistic defnition of the two key reserve reporting metrics:

  • Reserve Replacement (RR): measure of production (P) for a period vs change in reserves (dR) for the same period. So RR = dR / P expressed as a percentage. In general the higher the better. Below 100% and you are not replacing reserves that you have produced with new reserves.
  • F&D - Finding & Development Costs: The cost of adding reserves. The so called "all in" F&D measures the cost of adding reserves including acquisition and divestitures. Drill bit R&D excludes asset transactions and answers the question, how much did it cost to add reserves through operational activities. The basic equation is: F&D = Cost (C) / change in reserves (dR) and is expressed in $/BOE or $/Mcfe. The lower the better.
  • All in reserve replacement: $248%. This compares to 205% last year (which was impacted by price related impairments; 237% ex-impairments).
  • Finding and development costs: $2.24 per Mcfe. Last year F&D came in at $2.50 (2.17 ex those impairments).
  • Carving out non-acquisition based reserves yields drillbit only F&D of $2.31. This is very respectable.

Costs Are Pretty Well Contained Allowing Field Level Margin Expansion

field-margins-eog4q07.jpg

Conference call today at 9 EST . The stock is called higher but may come off those highs with a swooning market. I will be on the conference call.

(ATW) reports $1.20 vs $1.16 expected, slight beat on the top line as well.

 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: RBC and FBR modestly trim price targets for (DO).

Housekeeping Item: The Calendar tab now has the beginnings of an oil and gas conference list on it in addition to the earnings calendar. Additions are welcome in comments.

113 thoughts on “Friday Morning – EOG Beats”

  2. Morning all. May be the bulls last stand for crude Z. Oil at 90 and Opec think a cut is in order – unbelievable.

    Broader market – 12100 absolutely has to hold on the Dow or we could put in a retest of the lows in very short order.

  4. I am also watching the European and Japan – FTSE and Nikkei have tested the current levels four times now.

  5. EOG Call:

    Gas Macro Comments: domestic supply to grow 2% this year, Canada imports down 1 Bcfgpd, LNG delays in startups for liquefaction will keep LNG imports flat with 2007.

    They see gas at 7.50 to 8.50.

    outlining some attractive hedges.

    The 15% growth is inclusive of their losing Appalachian property sales.

    They will keep net debt flat by 2008.

    Operations updates to be brief as they plan to spell it out at their analyst meeting on Feb 28.

    On Bakken play, average IP of 1700 bopd, 700,000 bbs on last 10 wells.

    NGLs will also be extracted from N. Dakota associated gas wells which are also gas rich. Very good NGL pricing

    Exit rate on Barnett was 370 mmcfepd, up from 350 exit planned. Expect average of 480 for 2008 vs 450 prior.

    N. America ex Barnett – see 7-8% organic growth.

    2009 late, will see boost in production (15,000 mm/d) and then another boost in 2010 of 60,000 mm/d)

    He’s pointing out those rising Trinidad prices. Says they are tied to methanol pricing. They used to say they were tied to bunker fuel prices. Methanol makes more sense as it comes from methane and that’s where their production is going.

    See lots of unbooked potential in Barnett, Bakken, and Uinta Basin.

  6. Scoop – still waiting on a reply from my guy. It wasn’t taken to heart yesterday for sure when the story came out. Rates and stocks rallied.

  7. Morning Nicky – unbelieveable? its what they sell and they’re getting fat at those prices…nobody likes getting paid less, lol.

  8. EOG call notes:

    See all in costs rising only 2.5% as per 8K guidance.

    key points:
    1) 15% growth
    2) liquids mix increasing as a % of total 2008, 09, 10.
    3) net debt will be down by year end
    analyst conf feb 28

  9. EOG – confirmed they don’t see bottlenecks for processing of gas from the Barnett at least in 2008.

    U.S. macro – thinks decline rate is above the company’s 36% chart that they show in presentations.

    Thinks the EIA is still overstating production growth in their surveys…notes it doesn’t flow through to EIA short term energy outlook. EOG says U.S. 2% growth 2008, EIA STEO says 1.6% growth but the survey is pointing to 5% growth.

  10. Unbelievable was the wrong word I think Z – you are quite right re #7 – we shouldn’t be surprised. That said they are playing a big part in this economic meltdown.

  13. Good morning-another alignment in the bounce camp which is a pretty reliable-
    tell-I know this sounds squirrelly-but I have been following my ace T/A lady for 8yrs-and watched this work every time.Her mother called yesterday to ask about the market during the day.Her mother only calls at extreme points-She also points out for her mother to call during the day is pretty rare(mother still believes long distance calls are expensive-)
    Hmmmmm. another alignment

  19. Denise – awesome indicator, squirrelly or not.

    I mean, that thing about long-distance costs…priceless. You can’t buy that on the Street 🙂

  20. I thought Sambone was the funny guy, lol. Must be on vacation.

    Just an FYI, tried and failed and have an order in on some NFX for earnings on the 12th. March 50 calls.

  21. Thanks OPEC for a good start to Friday.

    Also, drybulkers flying again.
    Capesize rates for today just reported, up another 5 grand to $108,600.

    Looking at the QMAR for the group rally and the arb spread contraction.

  23. RS – those check Feb 37.50s calls we were speaking of are now at a buck. Still a loss but less of a loss than at $0.30 when we wrote about them yesterday early.

  24. Popeye – They are talking specifically onshore North America. Heard same from APA and APC and SLB and HAL. Weak demand Canada, over-capacity in some segments, like pressure pumping (frac jobs) in the U.S. and land rigs in some regions in the U.S.

  25. Looks like OPEC has taken a leaf from the Greenspan Fed’s playbook. Sometimes just talking about a rate rise had the desired effect.

  27. The PP weakness should already be factored into the stocks (BJS probably has the most leverage to it)

    Dman – OPEC evented the Trial Balloon – filled it with hot air to see if it would float.

    RS – I’ll toss mine after I see the weather on Monday. Note the add of same strike for March which will capture earnings on the 20th.

  29. RS – I would not. Plenty of time to get in by the 20th and if it never comes down again, naahh, we’re talking about CHK, there will be another chance.

    I really bricked NFX this morning, it got pummeled yesterday against group action for no reason and I may have to buy for 2/12 earnings. Would have been a nice return, now probably more mundane.

  31. EOG hits all time high. Estimates will coming up here. Based on recent patterns and barring a Black Monday event, it should get another day or two of rally on that kind of report so I may add a little more near the close depending on where it prices versus current up $3.50 which seems to be stalling it.

    Thanks Dman – took my eye off the OII ball for half a second. Those guys got overly conservative on their last conf call… maybe they can take it back up a notch when they report on 2/21.

  33. I’m thinking the market brings both OII and FTI to me. FTI on 2/14 … everybody has been crowing about soaring subsea tree demand…these guys should be able to put up some big backlog numbers. I’m going to nibble here.

  35. Ok – interesting fact. X ending options on my system get confused with mutual funds so you can try to buy say a $22.50 March IOC call and get rejected. Happens that a mutual fund has the exact same ticker. That’s a new one on me. Bidding some March puts here.

  38. RIG trying to take out the upper line of its month-long declining channel. Sitting right at it now.

  39. EOG in complete breakout territory.

    NG up another 8 cents on $8.18.

    bidding some March 50 FTI for a gap close on earnings.

    APC finally having a green day.

    QMAR getting half the rise of EXM, keeps expanding that arb.

  49. Z: Re #35….exact same problem I had on Schwab with CME options earlier this week….whats the work-around solution?

  50. K – call customer service, have them place the trade manually but make sure you get the rate you always get and not some horrendous “personal service” rate. They can be MUCH higher.

  53. Nicky – that works through March 5, then they have to cut. It is generally accepted that they are producing, in aggregate, above quota now. So we may get a quota cut and a mention of actual production.

  54. Conspiracy time: the petro-sheiks are buying into the big investment banks because the latter got themselves into sub-prime doo-doo and they need the petro-cash.

    The big banks like to take big positions in assorted markets, including …er the oil market. So next time they wanna short WTI big time, does Mr Sheik call up from petro-land and say “hey fella, you be shorting my black gold…but I is owning you so it works out flat for me. But I is supposed to be making the money here”

    (apologies for the “Ali G” jive… couldn’t resist).

  55. on drys- will have a good q 4 report

    rates are improving, report out within a month

    qmar a good buy

    tops stills mystyfies.. q 4 loss coming which might be the day to enter

  58. N – New story on my scroll showing N. Sea and the Nigeria disruption. Adds Iran building second nuke.

    Same rehashed story of OPEC talk

    Phil Flynn quoted and he sounds ticked, saying OPEC has “no regard for the world economy”…he certainly didn’t mind this kind of behavior on the way up, lol.

  59. APA ripping higher with oil. For those who think the move is overdone in WTI, APA (no me) and SU (also up nicely today) would be good hedges.

  60. Nicky – this isn’t news, but Cramer has been saying for a week that big institutional money will be getting out of oil & oil stocks due to the notion that with rate cuts we are now early in a new cycle. He actually said that he thought big money was wrong to be negative on oil (because of the supply problems etc) but that they would nevertheless be negative at this part of the cycle.

    If he was right and they did go negative, they may now have been spooked by the failure of any meaningful drop in WTI as well as the cold weather/NG phenomenon.

    Just a theory.

    Today, Cramer noted the strength in various former mometum stocks (& oil/commodities) and said “I find it annoying”.

  61. APA finally making a little bank for me.

    Dman – saw that on Cramer and think he has been right there. Energy getting used as a source of funds first five weeks of 2008. Think its unwarranted and we are due a snapback (higher).

  63. Anyone fancy a rally into the close today?

    Dman – although the rally is huge today it still looks countertrend to me. Likely wave 2. I have no doubt we will break 85.

  65. Nicky – that’s retaliation for the $12B in global assets US and UK courts froze of his last night. He could only do that for a few days both financially and logistically unless he shuts production which would be a bad move for him.

  70. What is slightly concerning is that if this market does not recover in to the close today then Asia could open down hard on Sunday night. Hong Kong has been closed for 3 days due to the Chinese New Year so if they go down hard we could see a repeat of a couple of weeks ago.

  71. N – hear ya, that would be a problem. 2 1/2 hours to go, big multi-hundred point swings the story of 2008 so far.

  75. NOV now at 10.6 x 2008 earnings. Seems downright crazy.

    Z- I seem to recall you liked the quarter?

  76. Denise sent in a piece reviewing KOL. Gotta say, not impressed with their holdings, both coal producers and coal consumers, which does not.

    Dman – on the surface but still have not listened to the CC. Will try to get to this weekend.

    Speaking of weekend, I really enjoy taking a look at some new names on the wrap. Suggestions welcome.

  77. Broader market could do with crude selling off a touch into the close. We don’t want to be on the highs!

  78. Z you think distillates would be a good selling opportunity up here? I mean winter was must be nearly over and we have ample supplies. Out of interest do you have any weather forecasts for the next few weeks out and how long is this cold spell due to last?

  79. D – if you think this is the right should for WTI then HO would be a decent short here. Supplies are a bit low to last year but fine on the five year and fine for the ULS we drive with.

    cold blast back to warmer than normal 6 days out.

    just missed by NFX calls from earlier today. never got the FTI either.

  84. Best guess is that people are taking a little long shot bet that HAL follows SLB which has been rebounding today while the cheaper HAL remained flat to down. Frankly, I do not get HAL’s sluggishness. The N. American pricing comments are not new, and their diversification to international markets should be helping the stock out. It certainly has helped the financials out.

  93. I am looking at the h and s pattern in crude and thinking it could go a lot higher yet…. anyone else with any thoughts on this one?

  94. Upstream running a story on deepwater rig shortage impacting the go ahead of numerous projects in the GOMEx. The story sites giant projects like XOM’s Thunderhorse delaying other major projects.

    Oil going for 92 in the aftermarket, up $3.80+.

  95. Russia threatening to cut off Ukraine nat gas supplies (which would shut off 80% of Europe’s supply as it crosses Ukraine to get there) or unpaid bills. Could cut off Feb 11, would increased demand/competition for LNG shipments.

  97. Broader market – there is a potential triangle pattern in play here which targets 1360 spx but we need to get after it and clearly negated if the lows don’t hold.

  98. Nice moves as we approach the end of trading.

    oh well on the NFX and FTI…just too chitzy of me all day long.

    Nicky – Russia/NG would be pretty quick but it could send gas up past your $8.50 level.

  101. nicky re triangle pattern- take a look at oih- looks picture puurrrfect to me. maybe another up day, than a slightly down day to the center of the triangle – than direction dependent on rig’s earnings . whatcha think

  104. looks like ukraine might hav to sll off some of their core asstes to cover their accounts payable to gazprom (ie sell their gymnasts) or restart Chernobyl.

  110. Popeye, re #22. I mentioned service costs dropping previously. In the Barnett, for example, the completion portion of the well costs more than the drill. In the drilling phase, our main cost is the rig. Rigs are big weights and takes many truckloads to move. Newer generations like H&P Flex rigs are more efficient (less loads) and cut cost and cycle time. During the last boom, no rigs are available, rig companies lock in contracts and the money is almost in the bag. Sometimes, if our Capex changes, we will farm out our rigs and sometimes pay the difference on the day rates should they be lower than our contract.

    The crux, frac crews make up the majority of the completion cost (higher overall than drilling). An entire crew can mobilized from California to East Texas in 2 days and be working on the third day. This equipment is not on a contract like the rigs, when they work the turn $$. No work and they just burn depreciation. When the crew goes to East Texas, it starts an over capacity, price start to significantly drop. Supply demand.

    One last comment; FTI and CAM, I’m not high on for investment. Yes they have some deep water sub sea heads but they have a lot of dumb iron in the US and Canada plus increasing mom and pop competition. Deep water is RIG, DO, OII secodary HAL and SLB. CLB – lab analysis is next to impossible find, huge backlog.

  111. Z, re #67. Nobody really likes to shut wells in. The general experience is that they never come back to the same level of production prior to the shut in. Usually; oil wells are more forgiving than gas wells and it is usually hard to screw up a good reservoir. More than likely you will see a quick boom in services to bring wells back on line. Re-perforating, Coiled Tubing cleanouts and jet jobs, some acid stimulation work, possibly some re-fracs. The usual criminals CLB (Owen tools), HAL, SLB, BJS, Air Products, and a slew of value mom and pops…

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