Wrap – Week Ended 1/25/08



1) CFTC data shows a big rise in longs and a cover for the natural gas shorts...Net short interest pulls back from recent record levels as cold weather mutes, at least for now, the impact of the current string of tough storage comps.


For my recent thoughts on gas storage, prices, the weather etc click here.

2) Holdings Watch - Positions Closed This Past Week: 

  • Out COP Feb 70s, for average $7.15 up 160% since 1/22.

  • Out PBR Feb $105 Calls for $6.60, up 207% since 1/22. Still hold the Feb $110 Calls, down slightly.

I did a handful of bottom fishing trades when the market was getting slammed early in the week. The Conoco trade was specifically looking for an earnings beat which we got but this market has a short memory and I sold after the initial excitement began to lose steam with a once again faltering market. It pays not to be greedy just now.

The PBR trade came after the stock endured some serious weakness with the global equity selloff despite another big deepwater discovery in the Santos Basin, this time gas condensate. Comparisons were made to Tupi but the stock was more focused on subprime and the fates of the financials than I felt was warranted. Again, no reason to be greedy and we're out with a nice gain and a previously existing placeholder position in the $110s.

For an updated list of positions with recent additions click here.

to be continued...



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