Housekeeping Watch: Please don't copy and paste or link to parts of the post or comments to other sites. Thanks.
Commodity Watch:
- Natural Gas: Gas fell $0.06 to $8.13 yesterday. We're going to see a small storage withdrawal today before cold bounces withdrawals back up into a more seasonally normal range. I would expect traders to "look through" this week's number unless it is below the low end of my range or gas falls below $8, then you may see profit taking push gas towards the mid $7s. This morning gas is slightly weaker for the open.
- My Number: 40 to 60 Bcf.
- Imports: were essentially flat week to week at 9.7 Bcfgpd so this shouln't really be much of a factor.
- Weather: it was very warm with a reading of only 139 HDDs, far lower than last year's 171 tally and not nearly as cold as what is considered normal for the week: 226. Last year's comparable storage withdrawal was
- Street Consensus: 62 Bcf.
- Crude Oil - After a larger than expected inventory build crude dipped briefly into the low $89s before staging an afternoon comeback to close down only $1.06 at $90.84. This morning crude is trading up $0.86.
Oil Report Review:
Crude: Much bigger than expected build was still smaller than the build seen in this week last year at least partially debunking the "inventory effect" as one would have expected a much bigger rally in crude stocks given the much higher YoY crude prices and fear of taxation. The surprise build in crude was instead the result of falling demand from refiners and a jump in week to week imports. The jury is still out over whether either of those shifts are yet forming a normal seasonal trend.
Refinery Utilization: Fell a whopping 4.2% to 87.1% last week pinching demand... Much like it did in the comparable week one year ago refinery inputs tumbled by 800,000 bopd (reducing demand on the week by 5.6 million barrels).
click to expand...And Imports Staying True To Last Year's Pattern Rallied As Well. So we have demand falling by 5.6 mm barrels week to week and we have additional imports of 583,000 bopd (or 4.1 million barrels). This level of imports is most likely unsustainable.
click to expand
Gasoline: Build in gasoline stocks was in line with expectations as both production and demand slipped.
Gasoline Stocks: You can't argue that gasoline stocks aren't adequate. While the mid-west might arguably be experiencing a little bit of hangover tightness from last Fall's refining disruptions overall gasoline stocks are at the upper end of the range.
Distillate Stocks: A Slightly smaller than expected build was reports as production slipped over refinery utilization. Stocks remain low for this time of year but
Holdings Watch: No changes except to say that the long went down, especially the remaining January calls and the puts on FSLR and SUN performed very well.
Solar Multiple Update: Solar Stocks Get Spanked
Key Takeaways & Other Points of Interest
Note: if you can't see the previous table in its entirety just click on it to open in a separate page. This works for any graph that runs over the right border on this site.
1) The sector has taken a pounding and valuation or direction of earnings estimates had nothing to do with it. Case in point my (FSLR) and (YGE) paired trade have both fallen 35% despite the fact that (FSLR) was trading over 50x its forward multiple vs just under 4x for (YGE). Baby with the bath water action.
2) Some names have seen extraordinary positive earnings revisions and the biggest up moves for estimates, (SOLF), were met with the worst stock performance.
3) Most estimates have come up slightly since the year started and the ones labeled as down in the table above are only slightly so.
4) Analyst comments have indicated demand is accelerating in Europe, especially Germany and that 1H08 numbers are likely to continue to rise.
5) several analysts have remarked that the rapid increase in capacity in 2008/2009 will lead to "price wars" similar to those seen in the memory markets in the 1990s.
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch: BMO ups (TSO) to outperform, (SPWR) cut to neutral by Credit Suisse,
8:53 am EST
Crude Higher, But Economic Concerns Persist
By Nick Heath
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON — Short covering pushed crude oil futures higher in London trade Thursday, but concerns that demand could wane amid a U.S. economic slowdown continued to weigh on traders’ minds.
Short-sellers booked gains after crude futures fell to four-week lows Wednesday, following latest data revealing builds in U.S. crude and products stockpiles.
With the inventory data adding to growing pessimism surrounding the U.S. economy — any slowdown in which could force a downwards revision to demand figures, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report Wednesday — market sentiment appeared braced for further falls.
“Yesterday’s IEA report was extremely bearish, and confirms the selling we’ve been seeing last week or so on U.S. economy concerns,” a broker in London said. “I think it is going to move down further and any upside will be sold into.”
At 1234 GMT, the front-month March Brent contract on London’s ICE futures exchange was up 56 cents at $90.06 a barrel.
The front-month February light, sweet, crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 54 cents higher at $91.38 a barrel.
The ICE’s gasoil contract for February delivery was up $13.25 at $793.75 a metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for February delivery was up 144 points at 229.27 cents a gallon.
“The bearish sentiment of the U.S. economy is still scuppering any attempts at a rally,” said Glen Ward, energy broker at ODL Securities in London. “We feel that the funds looking to re-enter this market are comfortable to let this current downtrend run its course.”
The oil markets will be looking to glean further indications on the health of the U.S. economy later Thursday.
Home starts data are due out at 1330 GMT, while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to testify on the economy before the U.S. House Budget Committee at 1500 GMT.
“U.S. demand pessimism tends to rule the roost in the short term, and it is that which is weighing on prices,” said analysts at Barclays Capital. “The scope remains for a more concerted pull-back towards the mid-$80s in the period before the OPEC meeting.”
The recent drop in crude prices and uncertainty over an economic slowdown has boosted expectations the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will leave production levels unchanged when it meets Feb. 1 in Vienna.
However, a recent request from U.S. President Bush to Saudi officials urging an output hike lends some uncertainty to the outcome, some suggested.
“Energy markets may get nervous about the upcoming OPEC meeting in the days ahead,” said Edward Meir, analyst at MF Global in New York. “Market participants may still want to get this particular meeting behind them, as it comes on the heels of President Bush’s recent talks with the Saudi leadership.
“The high-level meeting raises the intriguing possibility of some “behind-the scenes’ deals,” Meir said.
As the crude market continued to digest Wednesday’s Department of Energy inventory data, some suggested a seasonal build in U.S. crude stocks could now be underway, a factor which could pressure crude prices.
U.S. commercially held crude stocks rose 4.3 million barrels in the week to Jan. 11, the U.S. Department of Energy reported Wednesday, while refined-products stockpiles built largely in line with market expectations.
“With product builds in line with consensus expectations spurring continued weak crack spreads and more than 1 million barrels a day of crude distillation capacity likely to remain in maintenance through the end of January, the stage may be set for seasonal crude builds to ensue,” analysts at Lehman Brothers said.
—By Nick Heath, Dow Jones Newswires
Looking for a nice big bounce in the large cap E&Ps this morning on oil…should give an opportunity to either make a trade in names like APA, PBR, and SU which have been knocked for 10 to 15% in three days or at least to get out of my Jan APAs with my head intact.
Oil back over 92…that’s not just short covering, traders are making a bet that $10 in only a few days deserves a bounce.
DRYS to delay 3 for 1 split … the market did that for them, lol.
the Baltec Dry Index (dry bulk day rate measure) fell 5.7% yesterday and is down 37% since the November top.
SD upped 2008 production forecast last night by just over 3%. This equates to 48% YoY growth.
They have hedged approx 79% of expected 2008 volumes at $8.79. The little bit of oil they produce is hedged over $90.
This is one of a handful of IPOs from last year I continue to like and their operational update from last nights shows they are hitting on all cylinders. See the reports tab for more in depth pieces on this one.
They will report 4Q results on Mar 3 and will be speaking at the Goldman Sachs Energy conference today.
Lastly, they have options now.
Wow, sure glad I don’t own MBI aor ABK.
So let me get this straight, Fitch likes MBIA and re-affirmed their debt ratings today but because they don’t go beyond a mechanical analysis of reserves, balance sheet, and cash flow they don’t like a company like CHK’s debt???!!! Wow, did they get their MBA’s out of a crackjack box or what!?
Fitch affrimed some of MBI’s CDO notes. S&P is now going to do another rating review by using housing also. Doesn’t bode well for both ABK and MBI.
9:37 am EST
Nymex Crude Up On Short-Covering
By GREGORY MEYER
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK — Crude oil futures rose Thursday as traders exited bets on further price falls after two straight days of decline.
The short-covering drove up prices more than a dollar to as high as $92.19 a barrel, though moves higher were constrained by U.S economic worries. Light, sweet crude for February delivery was recently up 62 cents, or 0.7%, at $91.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The front-month March Brent crude contract on the ICE futures exchange rose 58 cents to $90.08 a barrel.
“You’re getting a little bit of follow-through bounce off the lows of yesterday,” said Peter Donovan, a vice president at Vantage Futures in New York. “But I’m not sure the downside is totally exhausted. The uncertainty in the economy is probably the biggest force moving us lower.”
Oil futures have declined from their record intraday high of $100.09 a barrel, posted two weeks ago, amid a slew of ominous economic news. In the latest sign of a slowdown in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer, housing starts fell a larger-than-expected 14.2% in December to their lowest level since 1991.
Tom Bentz, an analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures in New York, said economic news “is going to continue to weigh on the market.” But he said in the short-term oil futures were oversold, and presented an opportunity to buy on a price dip.
Also supporting crude futures, Bentz said, were reports that Israel test-fired a ballistic missile Thursday, an action taken amid tensions with Iran over its controversial nuclear program.
According to the YNet news Web site, the test was “part of future multilayered defense system designed to counter various aerial threats against the Jewish state,” Agence France-Presse reported.
Forecasts for a tight supply picture were reinforced Thursday after Iran’s oil minister said there is no need to increase the supply of oil on the global market.
The Shana News Agency reported Wednesday that Gholam Hossein Nozari said, “The price of oil has depreciated by $5-$6 in the last 10 days. In these circumstances and considering the existing levels of oil in the market, there is no need to increase production.”
Iran is the second-largest oil exporter in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which meets to discuss production levels Feb. 1 in Vienna.
U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman reiterated concerns about global supply at a press conference in Amman, Jordan, on Thursday, saying, “In my own view, there is some evidence that the supplies are less than we would like to see them.”
Traders were also considering a U.S. oil inventory report, released Wednesday, that showed stockpiles at Cushing, Okla., the delivery point for Nymex crude futures, had fallen by 1.2 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 11 while overall crude stockpiles showed a large increase.
“People are digesting that,” Donovan said.
Front-month February reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, rose 1.88 cents, or 0.8% to $2.2971 a gallon. February heating oil climbed 2.57 cents, or 1%, to $2.5441 a gallon.
—By Gregory Meyer, Dow Jones Newswires
Morning all.
Charts still look in need of either a double bottom at the 1364 spx area or a slightly lower low into the 1350’s. Not sure whether we are going to see a thrust lower or more of an ending diagonal pattern – the latter argues for a move back towards 12600 before the market falls again.
Overall market – A buddy of mine said that he believes that the Dow will bottom at 12,350 and then rally to 13,000 in the short term.
FSLR failed to maintain rally when Dow did, if it diverges here look out below. Price wars coming just every other chip market in the past.
how confident are u on on yge and solf earnings? got hammered this week selling yge puts and hedging by shorting fslr. percentagewise yge went down a lot more. seems like if those earnings are accurate yge is a strong buy.
Samborne – thats my count too- mentioned it on here yesterday. Its not out of the question that we could go to 12260 on this leg down.
Ky – YGE more thinly covered that FSLR but still has 10 analysts covering it and estimates continue to move up, not down. The spread is fairly wide but they beat analyst estimates by quite a bit last quarter. FSLR is getting killed because the Street is starting to doubt whether further margin improvement (their’s is the best I’ve found) can really be attained. Unfortunately we’re not to the point were killing the leader doesn’t kill the cheaper members of the group. I am very tempted to cover my FSLR puts and take the hit on YGE and step to the sidelines for awhile.
YGE fell more this week as it played catchup to the group. Over the last 3 weeks, the falls have been equivalent.
Bernanke speaking and saying nothing new right now
‘further easing MAY be necessary’ – he is going to have to do better than that.
looks like i should have lasted 1 more day!!!!
N – the guy is out to lunch! What a disaster he is.
Ky – the whole market is like Russian roulette….I am going to have my typically six scuds by the end of tomorrow. I’m not going to go short but look for more focused (probably fewer) traders through 4Q earnings. The fed needs to spine-up and until we have better leadership I just see more head fakes and pain for the longs.
Can’t believe he is saying almost exactly the same thing as a week ago – everyone knows the problems – they will have his head on a block soon.
Nothing in his speech to even hint at an inter rate meeting cut and to be honest nothing in it to say that 0.50 is a done deal at the next meeting either!
We have now seen a lower low so the minimum is in for 5 waves down..
ZTRADE:
Out FSLR $160 puts for $1.70, off 62% … right direction, just not enough time left on these. Still hold the Feb $210 puts but will likely cover soon.
re 21: I hope they do have his head on the block soon. I heard Volcker was very critical of him.
ZTRADE: Out Jan Rig Calls for $0.45. This was the second half of a trade initiated on December 19. The first half was sold for $12 (a little over a double) in early January so this was essentially “house money” but it still stinks to give it back. I still hold the Feb $140 calls here but if I get more enthusiastic on the group or the name I’ll like add at a lower strike.
SPX has support at 1355
Nicky, any thoughts on RBOB and HO levels?
Gas storage withdrawal was 59 Bcf, in line with consensus, gas dipped just under $8.
Refiners probably not done to the downside just yet, getting a bounce across the board at the moment…did anyone see a brokerage sector upgrade (I saw a couple of upgrades for TSO) if not, I’d say this is a dead cat bounce.
10:25 am EST
Nymex Crude Turns Negative Amid Fed Testimony
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
[Dow Jones] Oil futures turn negative as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the U.S. House Budget Committee. “The same increase in oil prices that may be a negative influence on growth is also lifting overall consumer prices,” Bernanke said in his testimony. Nymex Feb crude -15c at $90.69/bbl. (greg.meyer@dowjones.com)
Sam – in words, it’s out of his hands
I love these analysts!!!! C just lowered it’s buy target on ABK from $50 to $18.
This looks like a countertrend bounce for products Z. Distillates has resistance at 25500 and 26000 area. Taking out yesterdays lows should see us move lower.
RBOB has resistance at today’s highs in the 23100 area and then again at 23750.
Part I
No Sign Of Hope For Change In OPEC Output
By DAVID BIRD
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
NEW YORK — “Hope” and “change” are buzzwords of the 2008 election campaign to succeed U.S. President George W. Bush.
Those words, too, may sum up Bush’s efforts this week to get Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah to boost oil output and ease oil prices, which hit a record futures market price above $100 a barrel two weeks ago.
But, there seems to be little hope for a change in oil production policy.
The president in the 2000 campaign, when crude oil prices were at a 10-year high of about $33 a barrel, said he would “jawbone OPEC” to open the taps. He probably never expected he’d be playing out the pledge in the final year of his term, with prices nearly three times higher.
The need to press the Saudis, the world’s biggest oil exporter and de facto OPEC leader, on the issue comes as U.S. economic growth is slowing, and record-high oil prices aren’t helping.
In a twist of classic market irony, though, even as signs point to the Saudis rebuffing Bush on the oil output issue, prices have dropped in recent days on improving market fundamentals and the same worries about the U.S. economy.
With Bush in Saudi on Tuesday, oil prices fell 2.4% to a three-week low on news that U.S. retail sales in December, the crucial holiday season month, fell by 0.4%, compared with expectations of a 0.1% decline, flaring concerns of a recession.
The news trumped comments from Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Naimi that said the kingdom would only boost oil output when the market justified such a move. No one has an interest in seeing the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, go into economic recession, Naimi said. But, he cautioned that oil wasn’t the only reason for the slowing U.S economy and said global oil stockpiles looked “normal.”
Rising Stocks Sink Prices
In different times, indications that the Saudis were holding output steady in a volatile market might have caused a price spike.
But, far from the Gulf, U.S. traders also were nervous that weekly oil statistics to be released Wednesday would show improving fundamentals and further slash prices.
The Energy Information Administration’s data did fuel a further sell-off, as they showed crude oil inventories jumped by a surprise 1.5%, or 4.26 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 11. That was the first rise after crude oil inventories had fallen by more than 10% over the previous eight weeks.
Analysts said the U.S. market appears to be moving into a period where crude stocks, still the lowest since October 2004, are likely to grow steadily ahead of the strong summer demand season, as refinery maintenance cuts crude consumption.
U.S. refineries slashed crude oil processing by 4.8%, or 760,000 barrels a day, in the latest week due to maintenance, in the biggest weekly decline since Hurricane Katrina disrupted Gulf Coast refining operations in 2005.
Gasoline and heating oil/diesel fuel stocks also increased, pushing prices down. Nymex crude oil futures settled at $90.84 a barrel Wednesday, after hitting a low of $89.26, the weakest price since Dec. 18 and 10.8% below the intraday record high of $100.09 hit on Jan. 3. Heating oil and gasoline futures fell to their lowest levels since Dec. 10, and down 8% and 11.3%, respectively, from record highs set Jan. 2.
Crude oil prices, in fact, may have fallen enough in recent days to ensure that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries won’t increase output at its Feb. 1 meeting.
Prices settled Wednesday just 4% above the level on Dec. 5, when OPEC last met and decided to keep oil output levels unchanged.
Thanks N – thought those moves looked fishy, especially RBOB … we’re pretty darn full for this time of year … I’m betting the refiners will turn, as are A LOT of people but I think there will be headfakes along the way and today’s action is one of them. I think we see lower lows for the refiners over the next week…cracks look abominable. The move higher will only come when gasoline inventories move away from full status and that is harder to do if demand is in fact pulling back a bit.
Part II
Bigger 2Q Demand Drop Than In 2007
Analysts Paul Horsnell and Kevin Norrish at Barclays Capital in London said that while it is “hazardous’ to forecast the outcome of OPEC meetings two weeks in advance, “as matters currently stand, we would put the probability of OPEC increasing its (output) target ceiling as being very low indeed.”
The Barclays analysts cite sliding prices, concerns over macroeconomic data, lack of fundamentals arguing for an increase, concerns over seasonal declines in demand in the second quarter, and OPEC’s general resistance to outside political pressure.
Global oil demand is projected to drop by 1.5 million barrels a day in the second quarter 2008 from the first quarter, with the end of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the International Energy Agency.
That seasonal falloff in demand is 36% higher than the
decline in 2007, the Paris-based watchdog for the major industrialized countries which form the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in a monthly oil market report issued Wednesday.
Before Bush landed in Saudi on a hopscotch tour of the Gulf, French President Nicholas Sarkozy visited the kingdom and expressed the view that the oil price should be $70 a barrel.
The U.S. signaling of Bush’s intent to raise the oil price issue with the king may have generated more attention to the issue than the president actually gave it on the ground in Saudi Arabia, Energy Matters hears from industry sources with close ties to the kingdom.
En route to Egypt Wednesday, the final stop on the tour, Dana Perino, White House press secretary, reluctantly parceled out impressions from the Bush’s Tuesday evening private after-dinner walk and talk with the King.
The president raised his concern that high oil prices can negatively affect economies around the world, Perino said, according to a White House transcript of her remarks to reporters aboard Air Force One.
“The President said there’s a hope that as a result of these conversations that OPEC would be encouraged to authorize an increase (in) production,” she said.
Questioned repeatedly on the issue, Perino acknowledged that the “hope” of an increase in OPEC output is held by the president, and wasn’t expressed by the king.
-By David Bird, Dow Jones Newswires
A friend sent along a positive first call note on SD’s update and capex budget for 2008. They agreed with me that this the news was all very positive but said that the stock is not a screaming buy given its lofty valuation (which they added is completely deserved). I continue to hold the shares.
Nicky #27 should now read SPX “had” support at 1,355. Is their a way to impeach Ben? He stinks.
Next support at 1345 and then 1330.
Z Looking at POT, MON,MOS,AGU all down substantially this week. Does this look warranted or is it down too much too soon ala PBR?
Is it me or does he sound somewhat nervous? Sort of stammering like he hasn’t got a clue what to do.
Whats the next support for the S&P that you have Nicky?
Duh – nevermind
Z: if we liked HAL under $40, we gotta *love* it under $34, right?
NOV down nearly 6% after a similar effort yesterday. Falling like a rock, but maybe time for some long-term nibbling. Any thoughts on why it is particularly beat up?
#41 Thought the same thing
I can count 5 clear legs down from yesterdays highs- we are getting close folks.
close to what? Total annihilation?
Scoop & Dman. Everything from fertilizer to clean energy funds getting hit. I want to see some sideways trading before I commit another cent of capital. From what I can tell the worst beatings have little to do with valuation and more to do with this mentality:
“hey, how does that chart look to you? Crappy? Right, sell it. What? I don’t know the name of it, just the ticker, it has something to do with energy so just sell the @#$%##!
On that note, honestly, I think SLB rebounds first here…$20 points in 2 weeks, good support at $80 (down another $3). HAL has had the same % move but in generally moves second in a retracement AND its support is close to $31 which is a great % move down from here than is SLB’s. Still like HAL but this market is trading like a jerk.
close to total capitulation…as in when everything looks like a bargain after days of selling and then the losses double during the afternoon session. I think she’s right.
Wow Z – exiting. I’ve never seen that. Is there a rebound after – or continued selling?
BTU was in the $60s at the first of the year, just entered the $40s…at support now and China didn’t suddenly just go away.
FF- I was just referring to what I think Nicky is talking about, a total capitualation get out at any price kind of day. Bounce probably soon (Friday through Tuesday), but question is from where. At this point I may take some February calls near the close in APA, PBR, DVN, EOG just because I hate my money. Never trade angry, never sprint in a marathon.
By god, the YGE is flat today with FSLR all over the map, down another $5 at present. Reading a piece on why the solars should fall more…will pass along comments.
Looks like the bounce is going to come from us just hitting levels where people decide to step in rather than then any action from the Fed.
Nicky – agreed, which means you have to be as nimble as a day trader or stay on the sidelines (at least for those options players here)
target areas for the low have been hit…
1355 goes from being support into resistance now
With NOV down 8.2%, I couldn’t resist. Had to nibble some.
Z- Thanks for the heads up on BTU…I’ve been wanting in on that for months… looking at it now..
You can’t even get near the money strike options on DIG, they don’t have any as far as it has fallen. May buy puts on DUG instead.
D – Don’t if you should thank me…in this market pointing out a bargain can be like handing a man a loaded gun which you know is prone to backfire.
Usually when I start feeling like this we are within a few percent of the bottom. Ugh.
Added to HK, what the hell it’s only money.
Wow, P – great minds and all that stuff…Was just contemplating dumping my HK calls for a 50% loss and buying a little more stock.
12:29 pm EST
Nymex Crude Below $90/Bbl On Economy Fears
By GREGORY MEYER
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK — Crude oil futures fell more than a dollar a barrel Thursday, reversing earlier gains, as fears of an economic slowdown gripped the market.
Light, sweet crude for February delivery was recently down $1.08, or 1.2%, at $89.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The front-month March Brent crude contract on the ICE futures exchange dropped $1.14 to $88.36 a barrel.
Prodding futures lower was a report that housing starts in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer, fell a larger-than-expected 14.2% in December to their lowest level since 1991. Plus, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported the manufacturing sector in its region contracted severely in January, to its lowest reading since October 2001.
“The market is obviously very concerned about the state of the economy,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.
In testimony before the U.S. House Budget Committee, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated that downside growth risks to U.S growth have become more pronounced. He backed a “quickly” implemented fiscal stimulus package for the economy.
Asked about oil prices, which are up about 75% from a year ago, Bernanke said there’s little that can be done in the short-term as they are driven by the balance of supply and demand.
“For us at the Federal Reserve, high oil prices are a real bane, because they create inflationary pressure at the same time that they take away spending and income and can depress the economy,” Bernanke said.
Oil futures have declined from their record intraday high of $100.09 a barrel, posted two weeks ago, amid a slew of ominous economic news.
Front-month February reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, fell 2.10 cents, or 0.9% to $2.2573 a gallon. February heating oil dropped 2.83 cents, or 1.1%, to $2.4901 a gallon.
—By Gregory Meyer, Dow Jones Newswires
Solar: Ok, I’ve just been reading a report from the single biggest, bearish analyst on the sector. And he thinks that the solars will rally over 4Q and 1Q08 earnings. Longer term he sees the group having an over-supply scenario that starts in silicon and migrates down the chain to solar cells and then solar modules. He thinks this really starts to show up in 2H08 but that high average selling prices and cheap silicon (its already moving towards oversupply from new capacity in China) will lead companies to show further margin improvement in the very near term (1Q and 4Q). He likes SPWR and JASO for a bounce and has nothing but contempt for ESLR even into near term earnings.
DOh! Had to nibble on some DO. Passed on the BTU so far (no reason I can think of…what’s rationality got to do with it at this stage?)
Hmmm, since I don’t watch Mad dog cramer, what has he been saying latley about the overall market? BUY, BUY, Buy or Not sure?
Dow – 243 point swing so far today.
Uncle Phil
http://www.321energy.com/reports/flynn/current.html
ZTRADE: APA FEB $100 Calls for average $3.40.
crude pierced $90 and rallied again. When the economic fear thing shifts, and I think it will soon, oil may rally on the no help from OPEC angle. It may test $87 first however.
Z – re solars. A source in the industry told me (as per your analyst) that silicon would soon be plentiful. He said the next shortage for PV would be (get this) plate glass. I said, “WTF?!”. He said it can’t just be any old plate glass and capacity will soon be constrained. I dunno what to make of it: I wanted to look into it in detail but haven’t had time. Buy GLW and ask questions later, LOL. (Example Question: “Do you sell to PV?”).
Hear ya D,
This analyst is making the statement that PV capacity and demand growth are GROSSLY over estimated by the key industry group. He thinks the Street takes the group’s spoon fed supply demand model and that’s how they come up with these giant numbers.
retest of the low – lets see if this meets with any buying.
PBR FEB 100’s for 3.50?
more on solar: this analyst thinks that price declines will allow governments to reduce subsidies, something that is already happening in Europe.
Ram – Not a bad bet. I was thinking about it earlier…it’s due a big bounce.
Natural gas has gone positive. Traders are indeed “looking through” today’s report to next week’s bigger number.
Ram has called the bottom on PBR.
Whoa Is Me, The Fed Is Never Around When You Need It
By STEPHEN COX ,CMT
A Dow Jones Newswires Column
NEW YORK — Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke informed the House Budget Committee earlier that he favors, presumably, more money and lower interest rates to stave off an economic downturn.
Silly me. I thought that everybody else thought that the economy has been turning down since the housing market woes — remember them? — which were followed relatively recently by subprime woes.
This much isn’t news. The Fed, which bills itself as the U.S. economic policeman, is, according with proverb, never around when you need it.
What’s notably new in the money markets, which are necessarily ahead of any one of us, is the earlier extended downtrend of the Dow Industrials below 12433.20. The Dow, near 12315, perhaps isn’t decisive below that resistance, according to your trading system, gentle reader. The point is that the tentative technical breakdown on the monthly chart points the DJIA down to initial support in the 11025.90-11018.70 technical band.
The DJIA’s action, if and when you deem it to be decisive, would be the technical signal for a general stock market correction. In that case, the Dow would have joined the S&P 500, which is technically weak below 1397.51 and so is targeting 1259.30-1253 support.
And the Nasdaq Composite, similarly, is technically weak below 2542.80-2445 resistance and it’s going for 2116.10 support.
Dollar Domino Effect
Short-term moves often have a way of morphing into long-term trends, and so it may be with the dollar.
Technical evidence of short-term technical weakness of the Dollar Index perhaps squares with the prospect of lower Fed policy rates. In any case, the index, near 76.10, if it takes out 76.06 support, would be on the way down to 75.74, or to 75.27 initially.
That relatively minor move would nonetheless be important. It would make the index technically weak on the daily chart below 75.85, and so would resume the current downtrend from the Dec. 20 high of 77.85. That development, in turn, would considerably increase the chance for a move below 75.20 to new lows for the long-term downtrend.
(Stephen Cox, a chartered market technician, is chief technician for Dow Jones Newswires.)
Dry bulks sentiment appears to be changing.
Huge slide in the dry bulk rates yesterday… probably unlikely to go much lower.
Re: 79…he’s a funny guy. But 11,000, Wow!
Should see 11,000 and maybe even lower on the next leg down.
11,000? You must be an AFC fan! Why did Tom Brady have to be so good?
MAR YGE 35’s 2.15?
Re YGE and solars, there may be a little more shakeout before they rally, hard to say…If FSLR decides to gap fill to $150 it would pull them all down. I want to learn more about YGE and the sector before I commit more capital so I’m asking some people I know to get me more research there…may take a few days.
Not before we see a very good rally Z….
O.K.
Ram your PBR is working nicely.
Nicky, thanks…I think. Still, a intermediate rally to 12,600 is not out of the question in your thinking, right?
Flashback – If only they would have listened and acted!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A38725-2005Apr8.html
Thanks. Should the oil or gas stocks do well based on seasonality?
Z – solars continued…
My overall impression was that demand will stay strong (encouraged by falling prices & increasing conventional energy prices) but that increased capacity will crimp margins, making it very difficult to pick long-term winners in what will be a commodity business… AMAT is selling turn-key solar fabs:
http://www.appliedmaterials.com/products/solar_3.html
A specific point was that thin-film players like FSLR might only have a 2 year window (if that) before silicon catches them in price.
As to the demand & subsidy issue: it would be interesting to know where your analyst gets his demand numbers from. Or where *anyone* gets these numbers from. Given the small base, it is reasonable to expect hyper-growth in solar for a few years yet, but divining the actual numbers??
R – next business seasonality will be the spring ramp in gasoline demand for the refiners. Lots of the E&P crowd should post excellent 4Q numbers however.
D – the analyst was pretty smug about his team’s diligence in tracking “100’s of suppliers” … I used to do that kind of legwork and it’s a) not fun b) fraught with in accuracy, and c) impossible to keep up to date unless you have an army of census takers. But, if his starting point was close to right then he may be onto to something …I asked to see the model.
Have you heard anything about tellurium being hard to come by, in the quantities that FSLR is going to need? There’s a blogger who constantly bangs a gong about it but the company (FSLR) which is the only thin film guy to use the stuff, seems to shrug off supply concerns there.
I think we are likely to get back to 13000 Z – maybe even 13,200. Will be easier to get some levels when we finally put in a low ….
FEB CHK 37.50’s?
Ram,
That money’s just burning a hole in your pocket, eh, LOL? I own them already, yes and they are down about 60%. There is little catalytic for the stock between now and earnings (unless they put out reserves before results). Gas prices would be the key driver, after the broad market of course. Maybe higher gas price happen but like I’ve been saying the comps to last year’s gas storage get very tough over the next several weeks (I’ll have a gas wrap post out after the close as per new procedure around here)
Nicky – Is the sequence fall more (insert level here:____) and then rally to 13?
My earlier APA trade: you can no get it cheaper on the offer than the bid was when I bought it at the same level…nice.
Somebody said current environment reminded them of Japan a while back. Wonder if that is why Ben is aloof about going ahead and cutting rates. They got into a scenario where their rate was 0 and still had no impact on their economy.
Wasn’t NICKY saying 12,260?
That would be me on the Japan market.
CLR down 9%. Less familiar names getting chucked.
I thought it was you Sam but didn’t want to put words in your mouth. Do you think that may be on Ben’s little brain as he cautiously approaches further rate cuts now? Did he talk much about inflation today as that is the only other thing I could see stopping him from cutting?
CLR … make that 11%
if vlo breaks 52.4 look at 48$ with agreement from broad market and crude.
this is starting to look like capitulatory selling.
T: agreed, I also think Denise’s TA guy was right on TSO touching 32.
tues – thurs ive been day trading jan vlo puts and have averaged 400% per day. got to love expiry week.
CHK selling overdone?
Ram, by what do you measure overdone in this market, lol? If you take Febs near the money I’d think you would be fine but this is brutal and not based on fundies at all.
A slowing economy won’t impact them only by the 8% of their production that is oil (and of that some is hedged). Natural gas demand has very little to do with the economy unless the industrial component slides…which I doubt.
Have you even seen CHK moving more than $1.50+ before?
CHK down 4% and cheap, SWN, faster grower, not so cheap, down 6%
re 109, oh yes, many times, just not lately.
Given the market, I see no reason to try and catch a falling knife here. We’re seeing some technical levels for the energy group break down (like CHK at the low end of support) but more importantly the industry sub segments like are in trouble.
XOI: through last support now,
XNG: at support now
OIH: at support now
When this happens people say forget the fundamentals and toss these stocks.
Question?-expiration Friday is usually an up day. Would anybody venture a guess in this crazy market as to whether the NASDAQ will be up or down tomorrow???????
SNG could turn into a trading Stock. I assume they are going to move the rig and drill another well. The stock generally goes up on drilling announcements and then slipped back part way until there is another announcement followed by an uptick and the usual drop-off. I have owned to stock for a number of years and that has been the pattern.
Z – I didn’t watch or read Helicopter Ben today. I think he doesn’t have a clue of what to do. I was reading somewhere that dirivatives (Credit default swaps, etc.) for the insurance on CDO’s and other insturments that it is 1/2 Quadrillion market. If 10% fails that is 50 Trillion. Now that is sobering that Tini time can’t help.
Yeesh! I step away for a bit and the Dow drops 130 points. But some energy names are holding earlier lows & DRYS is still up for the day, which seems telling.
Z- I did ask about the exotic materials the thin-film guys depend on. The answer was: yes they will have supply problems at some point, but there is a lot of work being done on substitutes. Even so, it’s hard to imagine a smooth transition for an individual company: the technology and asociated huge investment is (obviously) very materials-specific. So I guess they’d rather not talk about it 🙂
Sam 114 boggles the mind
Doc – sorry I have no guess for that, maybe Nicky and co.
Looks like we’re making another attempt at bottoming.
D – thanks. I read where the FSLR CFO said they were fine on supply but the comment didn’t make sense given that their demand by 2009 would seem to be all or even more than all of current Te production on the planet.
Also agree that switching materials would not be seamless and would likely result in a) a lower efficiency product and or b) an inability to continue to cut costs at the rate they have been.
US Oil Service 4Q To Reflect US Market Trouble
By BRIAN BASKIN
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
TAKING THE PULSE:
The news isn’t getting any better out of North America for U.S. oilfield service companies, as they grapple with intensifying competition for fewer jobs in their largest market, which could weigh on fourth-quarter earnings.
Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB) recently reduced its North American workforce, citing the slowing market for services. Analysts zeroed in on pressure pumping, which involves preparing new oil and gas wells for production as well as stimulating older wells in decline. They believe that Schlumberger is not the only company cutting jobs, with Canadian activity collapsing and spending by U.S. producers expected to grow little in 2008, if at all. A clearer picture of the downturn’s impact on profits is likely to emerge in fourth-quarter earnings calls.
“The environment has transitioned from one in which service companies had been benefiting from significant pricing increases…to an environment where there is too much capacity,” said Bill Herbert, an analyst with Simmons & Co. in Houston. “Margins are contracting.”
COMPANIES TO WATCH:Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB) — reports Jan. 18
Wall Street Expectations: Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect fourth-quarter earnings of $1.13 a share on revenue of $6.14 billion. A year ago, Schlumberger posted earnings of 92 cents a share on revenue of $5.35 billion.
Key Issues: Schlumberger is the global oilfield services leader, and its outlook for North America and other large markets, always the first of the earnings season, is closely watched. Should Schlumberger’s fourth-quarter business in the U.S. and Canada show signs of weakness, expect a rough quarter for most other service companies.
Halliburton Co. (HAL) — reports Jan. 28
Wall Street Expectations: Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect fourth-quarter earnings of 69 cents a share on revenue of $4.06 billion. A year ago, Halliburton posted earnings of 62 cents a share on revenue of $6.02 billion. The company’s year-ago results included its KBR unit, which was spun off as KBR Inc. (KBR) in April.
Key Issues: Halliburton is the market leader in pressure pumping in the U.S. and Canada, but is rapidly growing overseas. The company must continue to hold the line on pricing in the U.S. while it shifts resources to fast-growing regions like the Middle East and Latin America.
Ensco International Inc. (ESV) — reports Feb. 26
Wall Street Expectations: Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect fourth-quarter earnings of $1.55 a share on revenue of $517.4 million. A year ago, Ensco posted earnings of $1.36 a share on revenue of $470.6 million.
Key Issues: The shallow-water Gulf of Mexico, where Ensco operates one of the larger rig fleets, is one potential bright spot in North America. Demand for rigs, known as jackups, hit a 15-year low in the second half of 2007, but recent updates from Ensco and others indicates a “gradual demand uptick,” Jefferies & Co. analyst Judson Bailey wrote in a recent note to clients. Ensco also operates a sizable international jackup fleet, another market where many are looking for 2008 guidance.
(The Thomson Financial estimate and year-ago net may not be comparable due to one-time items and other adjustments.)
—By Brian Baskin, Dow Jones Newswires
Thanks Sam, I was musing about flipping my opinion on ESV the other week but have not done anything yet. Jud is a friend of mine and a smart guy.
of course, now the ESV chart looks completely broken.
Dow – 302 point swing today, going into the final hour. Got a feeling it will get ugly towards the close.
“get”?
Z – ya know, I guess I’ve been bearish so long that I like this. During my Tini time I watch CNBC muted with closed caption on. During the run up in the summer of 06 and then again in the summer of 07, all those talking heads could do was fall over themselves on the Dow hits new highs, etc., etc, and so on. Flashing lights, party on. This overall market is unhealthy and it’s finally getting back to a regular market. Hopefully the idiots on TV can finally shut up.
There, I feel better now!
Sam – Oh I remember and was short a good part of the rally. I just expect a little more disconnect with the broad market for my group as it is much cheaper, hedges, less economically sensitive, growing faster etc…
but at least I still have that FSLR put position.
Z – I’m probably going back into energy in a big way in the next few days. Thinking DVN instead of CHK. Also will buy RIG, HAL, SLB, COP,etc. Any other ideas on your side for the long run?
#124, Z It’s the crowd/lemmings that are moving out. That’s what I want. When the crowd is with me, it makes me nervous. They will be back. I look at this as a buying time. This has happened to us before. Just look at last year at this time, the crowd moved out.
DVN not a bad bet as they pile on volumes from the Barnett. I still like CHK.
I think HK and NFX get acquired this year…don’t know when but they go away.
CLR long term for oil, SD and SWN long term for gas.
CLB, HAL, RIG in service
VLO for a summer run.
re 127: they moved out of oil too about this time last year.
forgot to add PQ to that list but its a great little company with very low operating costs.
Thanks, I’ll start the work on they (DD).
#129 That’s what I mean, the crowd moves in or out of energy in a big way quickly.
do this again tomorrow and Monday may see that 11,000 level.
“Thar she goes”
hello to my TA people, can I get your thoughts on FSLR? Think it has a chance to fill that gap at $150 in the near term or are the tea leaves pointing to a bounce?
Next level of support Z is 1332. Options expiry tomorrow. Its also the turn date for cycles…
Nicky – would you take a look at the FSLR chart in particular? Thanks.
3:21 pm EST
Nymex Crude Falls On Fears Of Sluggish Economy
By GREGORY MEYER
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK — Crude oil futures slid to their lowest close in five weeks Thursday amid fears a flagging U.S. economy would dampen the nation’s thirst for oil.
Light, sweet crude for February delivery settled 71 cents, or 0.8%, lower at $90.13 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Front-month March Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange fell 75 cents to settle at $88.75 a barrel.
Thursday marked the front-month Nymex contract’s lowest close since Dec. 11. Nymex futures rose to a record intraday high of $100.09 two weeks ago, but have declined in nine of the last 10 trading sessions as worries pile up about growth in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer.
Helping knock futures lower Thursday was a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia report that the manufacturing sector in its region contracted severely in January, to its lowest reading since October 2001. U.S. housing starts in December also fell a larger-than-expected 14.2% to their lowest level since 1991.
The data suggest that “the economy is looking very dismal,” said Jim Murphy, assistant vice president at brokerage R.J. O’Brien in Chicago. “Once again, another number is pointing in that direction.”
A weaker economy “should theoretically lower demand,” he added.
In testimony before the U.S. House Budget Committee, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke repeated past statements that downside growth risks to U.S growth have become more pronounced. He backed a “quickly” implemented fiscal stimulus package for the economy.
Asked about oil prices, which are about 73% higher than a year ago, Bernanke said there’s little that can be done in the short-term as they are driven by the balance of supply and demand.
“For us at the Federal Reserve, high oil prices are a real bane, because they create inflationary pressure at the same time that they take away spending and income and can depress the economy,” Bernanke said.
Oil futures were also pressured by data released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Energy showing U.S. crude oil stockpiles grew for the first time in nine weeks, by an unexpected 4.3 million barrels. The data “set the tone for the balance of the week,” Murphy said.
Crude traded in a wide range, rising as high as $92.19 Thursday morning as traders covered short positions, or exited bets on a fall in prices, and reacted to reports of an Israeli ballistic missile test.
Also supporting the earlier runup, Iran’s oil minister, Gholam Hossein Nozari, was reported to rebuff calls for an increase in oil production amid high prices. Iran is the second-largest oil exporter in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which meets to discuss production levels Feb. 1 in Vienna.
The market seemed to pay little attention to a statement from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that U.S. President George W. Bush sent a “message of confrontation” during his trip to the Middle East this week.
“The drumbeat is so constant on the contracting economy for the moment, it is shaking off geopolitical concerns,” said Mike Fitzpatrick, an analyst at MF Global in New York.
Front-month February heating oil fell 1.49 cents, or 0.6%, to $2.5035 a gallon. February reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, dropped 1.15 cents, or 0.5%, to $2.2668 a gallon.
More information on settlements and highs and lows for futures on Nymex and ICE platforms can be found by searching for the following headlines:
—By Gregory Meyer, Dow Jones Newswires
Thomas Weisel Partners quote on solar
“While we see demand hiccups ahead for the solar industry, we expect them to be short lived as the industry will stimulate elastic demand through lower prices”
That is the single dumbest thing I have read today. Gee, buy this industry because it is in the process of commoditizing itself. Moron.
I’ll be Micron used to trade at 50x forward earnings too. Before they starting cutting DRAM prices in half every 6 months that is.
Don’t these analysts get it that if prices fall, government subsidies will too. One of the big attractions (selling points) for solar is the fact that many governments pay a sizable chunk of the purchases price either through incentives or tax rebates.
defintion of capitulatorium – see “slaughterhouse”
Hmmmmm, WB and BAC announce next Tuesday. That will be interesting.
5 minutes to “Tini time”.
ZTRADE: Out FSLR Feb 210 puts for 47.70, up 126%, felt like I was pushing my luck.
Z Are you IRISH because you sure have the luck of the Irish
Dow – 392 point swing today.
Scoop – you haven’t seen the scud list yet for January expiration.
true true
My gut says this turns tomorrow – I doubt this will last into next Tuesday.
Cramer bought 200 shares of COP @$75.41 today for his trust. Says too cheap