Treading Water Tuesday

Commodities Watch:

  • Crude Oil. Yesterday oil was lower early, higher later as OPEC rumors continued to swirl. January crude closed up $0.60 to $89.31. This morning crude has traded in a wide range from down $0.60 to up $.20 as those rumors continue to swirl.
  • National Intelligence report says U.S. is no longer certain of Iran's goal with its nuclear program.
  • Nigeria Watch #1. MEND attacks XOM operated vessel killing one.
  • Analyst Watch: Last week 3 out 4 believed OPEC would raise production at tomorrow's meeting. According to Reuters that ratio had fallen to 1 in 2 as of yesterday.
  • Natural Gas. Closed down $0.09 at $7.21. This morning gas is trading up a few pennies.
  • Imports: flat with the prior week (near 2007 lows).
    • LNG...still riding the 2007 lows: 0.6 Bcfgpd was flat with last week and down 0.7 from the comparable week last year
    • Canada... also near the lows for the year and also flat with the prior week at 8.2 Bcfgpd, inline with year ago levels.
Nigeria Watch 2, aka Empty Threat Watch: Nigeria's Depeartment of Petroleum Resources wants to end gas flaring associated with oil production in the country. At present, Nigeria flares 2.5 Bcfgpd (second only to Mother Russia) because the country lacks the infrastructure to either capture or re-inject the gas.  The DPR has long argued that oil companies should find a way of utilizing this resource instead of wasting it. Now the DPR has resorted to setting an unobtainable set of deadlines. The first will charge oil producers $3.50 for each Mcf of gas they flare. They might boost revenues a bit this way but I'd bet most producers will claim it is an unfair hardship and threaten to curtail production or just not pay it instead taking it to international arbitration. The second deadline says oil fields will be closed at year end 2008 unless they quit flaring. One question for the DPR. Can you A) build LNG facilities and gathering systems in a year to handle that much gas? (no way) or B) run the country's finances by selling sand?


Stocks of Interest

  • (DO) - The last few day's rig contract announcements have propel the stock to new highs (the first 4 were announced yesterday, the last 2 were announced last week). Continue to like the stock (added another call position yesterday).


  • Deepwater Stocks In General Are Getting A Bit of a Rally. The more expensive yet specialized or deepwater driven stocks rallied yesterday. (CLB) (mentioned in yesterday's stocks of interest portion of the post but sadly not acted upon, (OII), (CAM), (DO) and (ATW) all sought higher ground. (FTI) likely to follow suit. These stocks have seen some profit taking in the face of declining oil prices of late and then basing action and no...onward and upward.  
  • (DVN) initiated formal guidance for 2008 production volumes. The company is looking for volume growth of 8-11%.
  • (APC) announces deepwater discovery at its Green Canyon Block 726 Tonga West prospect. APC said they found more than 350 feet of oil pay in 3 Miocene sands  in this 100 million barrel plus pre drill subsalt target and will likely be tied back as a satellite field for their Constitution spar. They hold a 37.5% working interest. This is the kind of day to day blocking and tackling that will get towards the higher end of the 5-8% 2008 production growth target they announced last week. This is still my second largest position and I may add a little more this am.

SandRidge (SD) Reports Solid 3Q But There's No Coverage Yet. Can't compare it to published estimates as there aren't any yet. This was brought to market by a power house investment banking syndicate led by Goldman, Lehman, and Banc of America and I see no reason for them to come with anything but glowing BUY recommendations beginning December 5 (they are permitted to begin coverage 30 days after the IPO).

  • Background: This is a gassy (80% of 3Q production was gas) mid-cap E&P ($4.2 B market cap; $5.6 B TEV) focused on developing a large play in the West Texas Overthrust (stacked targets: at least 2 sands and 2 cherts (quartz)). Click here for a quick background look at SandRidge I did back in July.

As for the quarter:

  • Guidance: None Given in the PR. They'll probably hint at some round production growth percentage targets as well as providing a little color on forward costs. Looking at their metrics I would estimate they can generate between $500 and $600 million of EBITDA next year. Costs are under control and will likely tread water or even decline slightly on a $/Mcfe basis as we move into next year.
  • Valuation: Not cheap but give it time, we're not talking about options here. My ballpark EBITDA would yield a 10x multiple which is a little pricey for the group but we are in the early stages here, and they will continue to grow production and reserves low double digits for quite some time (near 5,000 drilling locations at present). Also, with a reserve life approaching 20 years, SD should be compared with the longer reserve members of the group like KWK or SWN (which trade at much higher EBITDA multiples)…if they establish growth targets in the teens I would call the current multiple fair.
  • Reserves: up 8% from 2Q levels to 1.174 Tcfe. I'm glad to see Tom Ward following his old partner Aubrey McLendon's practice of putting forth quarterly reserve estimates. Finding and development costs were respectable: all-in came in at $2.86/Mcfe while drilling only F&D were $2.27. Year to date all-in costs are running $2.24 which is very respectable.
  • Costs Towing The Line: LOE was $1.79 per Mcfe for the 3Q; clean of tertiary (CO2 flood) oil recover costs and their small but costly GOMex operations, LOE was $1.55 / Mcfe.  That's very good and should stay under control as they, more than most, control their costs via their own fleet of rigs.
  • Largely Hedged in 2008. They've pretty much locked in the first 9 months of 2008's gas production at average prices in excess of $8 per Mcf. Notably, gas volumes hedged for the first half of 2008 are higher than 3Q gas production levels. Crude collars are unlikely to have a positive impact on production ($50 floors so if that gets used we'll all be having a bad day and mid $80 ceilings which may hurt a little) but either way the hedge volumes are small. I'm surprised that with their high cost tertiary oil recovery they don't hedge up production a little more and for some better prices than they have at present.

Sunshine Watch: Solar Companies Will Get More Attention Here Soon.
treading lightly, lots of hype in the group, especially of late but not everything here is over priced. I used to trade in and out of these but its been awhile so I'm going to proceed with extreme caution. Suggestions for additional companies are welcome. 




Holdings Watch:


  • (DO) Entered the December $120 calls for $3.30. Last bid $3.60.
  • (HAL) Entered the December $37.50 calls for $0.68 average cost. Last bid $0.55.  

PUTS: No action

STOCKS: No action 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: (CEO) downgraded to hold at Credit Suisse,(CLB) initiated at Buy at Oppenheimer with $130 target, Opco also brought buyx on (CPX), (WHQ), (BHI), and (DVR) in the service realm, CIBC upped their outperform rated (FSLR) target from $230 to $250.

72 Responses to “Treading Water Tuesday”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    SD conference call on going.

    Rough notes:

    Rapidly growing gathering and treatment facilities in the Pinon Field area (their primary focus)

    Looking to produce 700 mm/d from their Pinon field by 2010 (200 sweet, 500 with CO2)

    Moving to 40 rigs in 2008

    will have 220 miles of 3D shot and processed by

    seeing several deep structures outside of Pinon

    Ellenburger fields (30% CO2)

    going to explore for Cherts in the Big Cannon area – spud 2 wells in 1Q08

    3rd rig outside of Pinon, drilling in the Thistle Field…first well did 2.2mm/d

    EBITDA: $102mm for 3Q

    shares out after IPO 141.9 + 22.3 fully diluted = 164.1 mm shares

    modeling guidance for costs coming out soon.

    2008 guidance in early March with YE results followed by their first analyst day.

    will be at Goldman Sachs conf in mid Jan.

    3 acquisitions in 3Q: most of it was 34 Bcfe Pinon field extension, plus another 10 bcfe in another field.


    Pinon Field: 29 rigs drilling (business as usual,

    Thistle Field: 1 rig drilling in Thistle Field using well control not 3D, another well drilled but not completed (fracs this week). Single rig will continue to drill 45 day wells.

    New 3D 300 sq miles shot , 150 processed, 30 miles east of Pinon, the other 15 SE of Pinon

    1) deep prospect testing Devonian cherts at 16,500 feet,
    2) second 3D prospect is at 8,500 feet.

    very good quality data they are getting, very large shoot, maybe largest in onshore U.S. history. Looking for deep-seated structures with thrust and wrench-faults…conventional traps.

    Pinon not shot yet but they think

    November production average: 220 mm/d;
    WTO was 120 mm/d of that. 40 of the 220 was high CO2 (which is capacity constrained).

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    RIG getting popped as they go to the market to raise $8.5 through a combination of deals. DO down in sympathy which is the normal lunacy you see. They have a completely different (lower risk) game plan for expansion. Of course, down $1 oil is not helping this am.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    RIG: looks like a big over-reaction. Much of the new debt just replaced bridge loan financing. Looks like only $1.5 B addition.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    SD: I’ll have an update post CC after the call, sounds good so far and the Street unlikely to be wowed since they aren’t providing guidance until March.

    Dry Bulks: getting popped with the market.

    Energy red across the board with the market and commodities down, APC only green I see. DO has cut its losses more than in half as people see this as a big opportunity to switch names.

  5. 5
    Nicky Says:

    Morning all

    The Iran news surely is very bearish for the market once we have Opec out of the way?

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Morning Nicky…Iran bearish on sentiment of course the guys that wrote the report are the same ones who said we’d find WMD all over Iraq, lol.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    T- I think Bill was say NAT for a nice mid-cap tanker here.

    Will start putting a blue page update on the shipper tab.

    DO still recovering from RIG related swoon.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    and the DO is green! lol.

  9. 9
    rseidman Says:

    Could someone explain the 2 option symbols for Rig(RIG,GWK)

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    RS: I’ll look into it. I see three: RIG, RFU, and GWK.

  11. 11
    rseidman Says:

    I’m referring to the option symbols

  12. 12
    Nicky Says:

    Bush still talking the talk re Iran. He is going to have trouble getting backing for an attack on Iran after the debacle on Iraq and his loss of credibility there. This just smacks of that all over again this morning.

    Z re # 6 – funny how this report is the complete opposite to the Iraq one.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    right: I see three option symbols when you go out to the Feb contracts they start using RFU and RIG as the base. It has to do with the partial cash settlement and the pre-existing GSF options:

    RIG seems to be trading based solely on the price of RIG price now.

    GWK based options are priced as follows:

    GWK = 0.47 x RIG price + 23.1438

    I don’t know what the RFU based options are.

    Here’s a link to the latest option memo which is clear as mud:


  14. 14
    zman Says:

    N – U.S. not going to attack Iran. I don’t believe it was ever really in the cards. Men and machines stretched to the limit over there. No resources, physical or financial for a war on a third front. No support at home for it at all. More likely an Israeli air strike.

  15. 15
    TTupp Says:

    re rig: told you so 😉

  16. 16
    rseidman Says:

    Z, THanks I should have checked with broker first

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    #15 hey T. Glad to be in the other but this may set up an opp as this is a complete over-reaction.

    RS – No Way! They’ll just put you on hold. This kind of confusion is part of why I got out and went to DO in the first although I’m sure I would have made more dough had I just stayed in and now I’m contemplating going back into RIG. Always ask questions and berate me if I don’t get back to you!

  18. 18
    TTupp Says:

    i was on that intertanko site last night and its fairly useful, but it only time-plots day rates for vlcc’s- not suezmaxe’s & afromax’s. is this info avail anywhere?

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    T: I’m looking into that. Some of the company sites use to have useful information and I’ll be combing them for data.

    Also, more oil on the market (an OPEC hike) means higher day rates. Now, I seem to think the tankers traded contra energy group in the past because of this …will do some checking.

  20. 20
    TTupp Says:

    the only tankers that go to middle east are vlcc right? it looks like a 500% hike since a year ago for them. although it has gone higher before it nonetheless impressive, and looks like it will continue higher. is the potentil for a quota hike the catalyst here?

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    T – Think other sizes go there too but not sure. I would think more oil on the ocean is better than less, also, seasonally, rates pick up soon.

  22. 22
    bill Says:

    re 20

    the catylst is we need oil to fill depleted inventories. Secondarily, in the winter we need oil to heat our homes

  23. 23
    TTupp Says:

    re rig options, its easy to look at open interest to determine which root represents the new company. the one with lower open interest is obv. not been around as long, and it will have higher volume too sine there is more interst in these contracts

  24. 24
    redjack Says:

    T…try this link:

  25. 25
    TTupp Says:

    yea whats with oil heating homes? it sounds like a dirty fuel for the environment especial in our homes! esp with all the NG availaboe to us produced in NA. and especially since cleaner, more readily available, NT doses not have to be refined or trucked to houses. im sorry it just sounds so stupid to me. what is the reasoning behind this anyone? i don’t think anywhere in Canada is heated by HO. at least i don’t think they use it in the north east like the US. im asuming is the geographical distance from producing regions: SW USA, NW Canada.

  26. 26
    TTupp Says:

    thanks mr. redjack.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    re 25:

    HO is what came after coal was used to heat homes. Big barrier is infrastructure. Over time, more and more of the U.S. has been “gassified” but its a slow, costly process. Canadians do use HO to heat homes and electric (bad idea) but it’s not as prevalent in the U.S. Used to know the numbers but haven’t looked at in awhile. StatsCan charges for their really lousy data unlike what we get in the States and I really don’t care that much to know. How’s your gas storage up their as far as fullness goes. I haven’t seen it in quite some time and should monitor that but again, each week costs $ to get.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    hey Bill, did you say to add NAT to my tanker list the other day (which I thought was on it) or was it another name.

  29. 29
    TTupp Says:

    redjack: i was saying n a post above that this site you sent me only charts daily day rates for vlcc’s not the other ship sizes. i can see the change for year ago prices through the numbers in the chart, but cannot visually see what has been happening to numbers n the past year (line graph).

  30. 30
    bill Says:

    Add TNP..thanks

    a very well run company that likes to shy away from spot, trading at a discount to asset values

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    Thanks Bill…got lucky a few years back when FRO IPO’d and ran. Coming up the curve here and appreciate your help. In fact, I’ve been waiting on your signal to warm up to the group. Any info links in addition to RJs would be much appreciated, especially those with historic pricing data. TY

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Bill, second question, in terms of trading metrics, since this is a pretty capital intensive industry and vessel sails may cloud the true earnings picture is the industry and EBITDA or CFPS share priced one instead of EPS?

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    Bill, not to wear you out but one last ? re the tankers. I understand supply/demand is key but also construction/decom of the global vessel fleet as well. Have you seen a good presentation from any of these guys detailing expected change in fleet size over the next few years. As I understood it, the reason to stay away from this group had been a boat glut with too much new capacity entering the system.

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    I did see a story regarding VLCC capacity

    2008: 36 newbuilds entering service
    2009: 69 newbuilds

    meanwhile 60 are being converted to drybulks over 2008 and 2009.

    don’t know how tight capacity is in the other markets (Suez/Afra) but VLCC does seem to be the play here.

  35. 35
    TTupp Says:

    bill do you know of a vlcc carrier who is leveraged to the spot market, preferably a mid cap issue with decent option action.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    big cap E&P starting to strengthen…people liking the APC and DVN guidance and the APC deepwater GOMEX discovery today. Otherwise, energy group still red with the market, especially refining.

  37. 37
    Dave J Says:

    I manage a 50 story office building in Houston and buy the electricity for it, which is based on the NG price. I like this site because it helps give me a feel for whats going on day to day. I am close to buying the rest of 2008, but interested what the opinions on how low this NG price can go. Thanx

  38. 38
    TTupp Says:

    dave imho i think we have a solid floor no lower than 7$

  39. 39
    TTupp Says:

    might be able to put on some good hedges here.

  40. 40
    TTupp Says:

    z have you taken a look at tsl? looks like an awesome company especially compared to fslr. their growth prospests in EPS an REV appear to be double FSR’s, with a ’08 PE of 17x’s, vs FSLR’s exorbitant ’08 PE of 113!.

    i feel you can sum up the comparioson of these two companies with the price/ sales metric. tsl: 4.7, fslr: 50.2!

    looks like fslr is on its way to my $150, gap filling, target.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Hi Dave…it may take me a few comments to address that so bear with me.

    As you know storage is at record levels not seen since 1990, besting last year’s levels which were well above anything recent.

    Primary driver of the surplus has been the shale plays. Barnett leads the way but Fayetteville (AR) and Woodford (OK) gold rush mentality have yielded record rig rate for Arkansas (just topped 50 rigs and that’s up from 2 or 3 in years past) and 200 in Oklahoma which is a 20 year record and I guarantee it is gas and not oil as it was when last the Okies saw that many rigs turning to the right.

    Colorado, New Mexico and obviously Texas are drilling balls to the wall right now. Also we just added nearly a Bcfgpd from the Independence Hub in the GOMex which should yield a small bump in production even after rest of region declines.

    So the production side is bearish for NG right now and you’ve got a bit of drilled but not completed wells in the shales waiting higher prices before their operators hook them up. Many of these will get added by year end so the operators can report higher exit rates for 2007 relative to their 4Q numbers. Helps give them a jump on 2008 % guidance targets since they get to start from a lower base.

    On the imports side:

    Canada is a wildcard. Drilling has fallen off a cliff due to low prices and so far this has not had a huge impact on imports to the U.S. I would say that won’t continue, especially with rising demand from Albertan oil sands producers (they use the gas to cook the oil out of the rock it’s trapped in). I watch the numbers weekly and a dip below 8 Bcfgpd will get noticed by gas traders. We’re running 8.2 Bcfgpd now.

    Furthermore, record LNG shipments this year helped boost that gas storage surplus. Here there has been a change in the last two months as now LNG shipments have fallen to very low levels. This started with a nuclear reactor problem in Japan which forced them to import more gas a couple of months ago…since then there has been a gradual exodus of LNG tankers from the Atlantic basin to the east taking gas from Qatar and Russia and even from closer places like Trinidad to Asia. While imports hit 3.6 Bcfgpd last summer, they have trailed off to 0.6 Bcfgpd at present which is just under half of year ago imports. I don’t see them returning to this market soon in a significant way given a colder than normal forecast for Europe (which also imports gas at times) and the ongoing demand from Asia…Not unless NG tops $8 or even $8.50 for an extended period this winter. So this factor is slightly supportive of gas.

    But the biggest factor is weather. The Producing region (hello Barnnet shale) has continued to inject gas very late into the season (normally we’d be pulling gas from storage in all three gas regions this time of year). I was listening to Tom Ward (ex CHK president) now running SD this morning and he plainly said “we need some winter weather or we see lower gas prices 08 relative to 07” and then “I’m amazed how much gas people are getting out of the shales” …you can see what he thinks about prices. I’d also point out that it looks like they hedged ALL of their first 3Qs of 2008 gas production with an average over $8…you don’t do that if you think gas is going markedly higher soon. You would do it if you thought the 12 month strip was in jeopardy of falling.

    As to a level. $7 is key. Fail to hold that and I’d bet we take a quick trip to $6.50 or maybe a little lower (again, two weeks of warm weather would do it) and then the curtailment press releases come and we waffle around until a big arctic blast blows in and you’ll see spikes into the $8s again. But the storage level not really coming off with cold last week is concerning. It may have been the steep contango…it may have been higher production. This Thursday will be more telling as we don’t shift contracts forward so the contango is less of an issue and it is again the coldest weather we’ve seen this season. Need to see a big draw or gas will test $7.

    Hope that helps. Given my gassy weighting right now I hope I’m wrong…but my names are cheap and not discounting $6 let alone $7 gas.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    T – TSL did look good, it’s in the table above in the post. I have a little more learning/reading to do before I act on the sector. FSLR definitely big dog, big multiple, looks lower to me.

  43. 43
    TTupp Says:

    re #41: yea- what he said…

  44. 44
    TTupp Says:

    cam slowly and quietly creeping up

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    t – same BTU and OII

  46. 46
    TTupp Says:

    we’ll see if oii can break from the trading range it’s in.

  47. 47
    TTupp Says:

    z do you know why exm is down so uch compared to drys?

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    T – probably just market noise, DRYS is down a little more on the 4 wk performance bars relative to EXM

    RIG getting pounded…could see stops trigger if it breaches $130, then I’ve got to look hard at getting back long.

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    CNBC guests saying 500,000 bopd OPEC hike factored into the market. Said bounce off $87.20 3x in last few days is evidence of this … we shall see.

  50. 50
    TTupp Says:

    yoll be able to buy rig sub 125 next week. i will buy i their. i bought puts Friday, will see those tomorrow or Thursday.

  51. 51
    Dave J Says:

    Z – Wow, that was a great summary. I have been holding off until year end, but prices are as low as they’ve been for 2 years. I think the risk/reward is probably telling me to lock in 2008.
    Thanks for the help.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    VMC down $3.66 at $84. CNBC about to run a story on fixed the nation’s roads=big profits. Probably a good op to buy some calls.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    nevermind 52, international infrastructure talked about, they billed it differently before the break.

    CLR – raymond James takes price target to $30, sees 20% volume growth next year.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    energy group beginning to green up. Not chasing myself in front of tomorrow as you never know what they (OPEC) are going to do but I’d say half a million bopd is factored in as much as 50 bips is from the Fed.

  55. 55
    TTupp Says:

    FRO 45 dec calls lok interesting. possible 10 bagger if we get some good broad market action.

  56. 56
    ram Says:

    VMC down graded from buy to hold by BB&T Capital Mkts.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    thanks ram, missed that.

  58. 58
    TTupp Says:

    re canadian storage: il ask my friend who works fr union gas/ duke energy in the trading division

  59. 59
    bill Says:

    Re 35

    there are not that many tanker companies out there and most of them (and their banks) prefer they lock up longer term charter than play the spot market.

    So if you want spot, topt and nat would be the choices.

    Here are the names in the tanker space

    vlccf—- all vlcc’s

  60. 60
    bill Says:

    z-more info on tankers


    click on market information..and see weekly newsletter for both drybulk and tankers



    they also have a chart on rates under>>

    Current tanker freight market

  61. 61
    bill Says:

    sorry 2nd link


  62. 62
    zman Says:

    thanks bill, am in the process of adding tanker info to the tab now called transports.

    you didn’t happen to follow the shippers for the sellside did you?

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    will add rams, atb, and dht to the table on the transport tab.

  64. 64
    bill Says:

    here’s one more link that pretty good


    >you didn’t happen to follow the shippers for the sellside did you?

    No..just a finance guy that likes to understand wtf I am doing and ive been following shippers last 2 years like you follow the energy sector. I first invested in tankers then rotated out of them to the dry bulkers last year. Im moving into Topt ( a “red chip” high risk tanker stock) in a big way. Im early but the price is the opposite of top and i think im getting in at the bottom.

    I found you on a google search. Wanted to understand supply demand on the oil markets as it impacts shipping demand. Learned alot on your site..thanks

    In fact, you gave me some good investing ideas… i need to diversify, lol..
    i have shorted stocks but Im basically a long and short only rarely. Presently, i am not short anything

    I also learned to stay away from NG futures, ouch

  65. 65
    bill Says:

    vlccf is another one did you have that one?

    and tnp dont forget that one

  66. 66
    bill Says:

    BTW, topt secondary is supposed to price tonight at 3.50

    it will be interesting to see how it trades tomorrow

    they are floating a bunch of shares 21 m

    It’s really a fire sale and will allow topt to buy 5 more bulkers

  67. 67
    bill Says:

    one more name for lng shippers


    tnp btw has one huge new lng tanker (a monster ship)

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    thanks bill,

    check out the transport tab at upper left…adding names and your links as a convenient resource.

    by the way that VLCCF has a couple of capesize’s too.

    glad you like the sight…you’re a big help with this slightly out of my realm stuff. thanks.

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    saw that monster of a ship at LNG, hope they have extra security…juicy target if there ever was one.

    saw gass somewhere but forgot to add to list.. will be in next iteration.

  70. 70
    bill Says:

    heres one more good link

    check it out


  71. 71
    bill Says:

    this is good news for the bulkers


  72. 72
    zman Says:

    re 71 …yes and good for BTU as well…gotta process that ore into steel.

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