RED Monday – PTR Becomes Easily The Biggest Company on the Plant

Broad market set to get clocked at the open. Once the boobs at a major financial, this time Citi, demonstrated that they are indeed boobs. Take an $11 B write down and you get to just quit?! These guys made stupid loans so stupid people could live cheaply in stupid size houses and he get to just quit? I say public flogging and the stocks should be brought back. Early indications are the broader markets will open down about a percent with Asia already having lost 5% overnight as investors there pulled money out of other stocks to buy into the PTR A share offering.

1 Trillion Dollar Watch: $1.1 Trillion actually. Petrochina floated its A share offering in Shanghai yesterday which immediately triple in value placing the total company's market cap at 2.3X that of XOM's $488 B (from a distant second position) in the span of a few hours. Comment: the "CROWD" is in charge.

Commodity Watch:

  • Crude Oil: After last week's 4% run, December crude is trading off 1.60 to 1.90 to just over $94.00. I would not expect the weakness to last long in the face of what will likely be another draw on crude stocks this Wednesday.
  • PKK released eight Turkish soldiers on Sunday.
  • Iraq production up 200,000 bopd in October.
  • Hurricane Noel is reported to have disrupted some oil shipments headed in to the GOMex.
  • Martial Law Watch: Musharraf suspends Pakistan's constitution and establishes broad powers to arrest those who criticize him.
  • Vlad the Impaler Watch. Russian output hit a new record high on Friday...but exports continued to slide amidst high export duties. October production rose to 9.93 mm bopd, up 0.5% from September levels (and nearly double U.S. levels). Production is up 2.3% on YoY basis however exports continued to fall following a Oct 1 hike in export duties. Thanks Vlad.
  • Natural Gas: is trading down $0.30 to $8.12 in early trading. Natural gas had the biggest week of all the commodities last week despite a larger than expected gas storage injection. If you missed the weekend wrap with tables and text click here
  • Arctic Blast Watch: coldest weather of the season is expected to brink a little snow to the northeast and freezing temps into the deep South.

Earnings This Week:


Note: CLR announces 11/6 with a conference call that morning.  

Stocks We Care About Today /  Earnings Watch: 

  • (CHK) Adds Barnett Shale Acreage. Cheasapeake announced the addition of 2,000 acres in the core of the play in Tarrant Cnty, TX bringing its total position to 235,000 acres (200,000 in the core and Tier 1 areas). This boosts their drilling inventory (at current spacing) to over 2,700 locations.  (CHK) has almost 1,000 landmen seeking leasehold in Tarrant County and expects to add 40,000 acres and as such 500 to 600 drilling locations per year. 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: (ATPG) cut to underperform at RBC, (PTR) cut to underperform at Bear Stearns.

(DNR) Denbury Resources 

  • Mid-Cap E&P (little smaller than NFX in mkt cap) and oilier (63% of production) 
  • Double digits production growth (11% expected 2007; 2008: 25% organic growth); about one-third of production is CO2 recovery at present.
  • 3Q07 Production: 45,720 BOEpd, 63% oil.
  • Operates production, MS, TX, and little LA 
  • They have about 7% of the U.S. CO2 capacity. 
  • It's a CO2 flood story; The basic concept is you can expect to extract roughly 20% of the original oil in place in an oil well. Water floods boost that to just under 40% recovery. And CO2 or tertiary recovery boosts that another 17%. Instead of drilling more wells you just keep pounding away the formation with different methods to unlock the reserves in place. They are sitting on 5.5 Tcf of CO2 proven CO2 with another 2-3 of probables. So they have more CO2 then they need. They have proposed building the "green line" pipeline, a CO2 line that would link the dome with most of their reserves in Louisiana to buyers in Texas.
  • The Gas Side: Barnett Shale: Late entrant to the play they really started drilling in 2005 and appear to be set to drill 50 ish wells per year on their limited acreage position. They've done a nice in the 11 quarters of production to date having grown production from 7.8 MMcfepd to 60.4 MMcfepd.
  • Balance Sheet is Fine: 36% debt to cap.
  • Hedges: minimal on oil, heavy on NG at just under $8 (pretty good game plan so far)
  • Analyst Meeting November 7.

Valuation: It's a little expensive but it's in the early inning of stronger double digit growth on both the oil and gas fronts. DNR trades at premium due to several unique factors: 1) is the CO2 angle 2) is the double digit growth from both oil and natural gas. Not only can they sell their excess CO2 production but there are a large number of exhausted fields near their core properties which could be picked off and revived with tertiary floods.


Bottom line: May take on a little long soon and I'll be doing a little more work here this week. 


Housekeeping Watch: Please bookmark this site: zmanbackup.wordpress.com.  Right now everything is running well on the main site it is always best to be prepared. 


189 Responses to “RED Monday – PTR Becomes Easily The Biggest Company on the Plant”

  1. 1
    zman Says:


    still working on thoughts on CAM…very good flow control company (valves, compression, drilling supplies) expanding margins, expanding backlog, see as best in class in many areas. Expensive to rest of service group but its also growing faster than most.

    FTO/WNR chances of beat…little. That’s not expected. Estimates have been coming down for the big boys substantially over the last two weeks and not for the little guys which means the analysts are asleep at the wheel. I’ll be exiting the FTO which is down but not severely so. WNR I’ll likely hold and see if they can pull a rabbit out of the hat either in the form an earnings surprise which I really doubt or a revaluation based on word about Tricenda and TSO.

  2. 2
    Sambone Says:

    7:51 am EST

    Crude Down On Profit Taking, Lower Equities

    By Nick Heath

    LONDON — Crude oil futures veered lower on profit-taking in London trading Monday, but the oil markets remained focused on potential $100-a-barrel oil, fueled by record high closes Friday.

    A stronger dollar and jitters in other financial markets contributed to the early retreat, but market sentiment remained trained on further highs to come.

    “It’s not surprising that people would take some chips off the table after last week,” said Eugen Weinberg of Commerzbank, adding that the market could retreat further and still remain within its current overall upwards trend.

    At 1221 GMT, the front-month December Brent contract on London’s ICE futures exchange was down $1.36 at $90.72 a barrel.

    The front-month December crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading $1.52 lower at $94.41 a barrel.

    The ICE’s gasoil contract for November delivery was down $4.25 at $798 a metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for December delivery was down 451 points at 239.44 cents a gallon.

    Credit market jitters resurfaced Monday after Citigroup said Sunday that its CEO Charles Prince had resigned over the weekend, and unveiled between $8 billion and $11 billion in additional subprime related write offs.

    The news reignited concerns over global financial markets, leading European equities lower, and could also prove to weigh on crude prices, market participants said.

    “This economic turmoil could well haunt energy prices in the next few weeks,” said Rob Laughlin of MF Global.

    “Commodity prices have soared of late, appearing to be a “safe haven” to many investors, but the fundamentals seem not to display the same enthusiasm for $100 oil.”

    The U.S. dollar, having contributed to the attraction of crude oil futures as an investment vehicle, strengthened slightly against the euro early Monday, supplying some additional incentive to profit takers.

    But in the absence of any fundamental developments, expectations that $100-a-barrel crude is becoming an inevitability is consolidating support for crude prices, analysts said.

    “While it may be interrupted by occasional profit-taking and consolidation, there is little to stand in the way of a run at $100 per barrel,” said analysts at Standard Bank.

    “Fundamentals may not justify it, but the liquidity seems to be there to make it happen.”

    Latest Commodities Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, data out Friday showed speculative net length in crude oil futures increased in the week to Oct. 30, with closure of short positions — bets that crude oil prices will fall — responsible for the lion’s share of the increase.

    Large speculators increased their net long position on the New York Mercantile Exchange by 83,120 during the week, CFTC data showed. Speculators exited 20,683 short positions, and added 2,411 long positions.

    But with short covering, rather than a build in fresh long positions, accounting for the rise, the sustainability of record-high oil prices is brought into question, said Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix, particularly given the current influence on futures prices of call option open interest at $100 a barrel.

    “While $100 (Nymex crude) is within feasible reach and still exposed to the 48,000 December $100 calls, we find the investment flows for now not good enough for a sustainable support,” he said.

    “We will view with caution the continuation of the rally after the expiry of the December Options (Nov. 13th).”

    The volumes of open interest on December Nymex crude call options — holders of which can purchase crude at $100 even if the futures price is trading higher — have been cited as a magnet for $100-a-barrel crude prices, with sellers of the call increasingly having to purchase crude futures as a hedge against a possible exercise of the option, as prices near $100 a barrel.

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly report out Wednesday will be eagerly awaited after two weeks of counter-seaonsal crude-oil draws boosted prices, and could provide a springboard for an attempt at $100 a barrel, analysts said.

    After low imports contributed to the surprise draws, a further reduction in U.S. crude oil stocks is possible this week, with the suspension of Mexican exports to the U.S. due to severe weather last week expected to be reflected in the data.

    “With crude oil imports already low, this is likely to give us yet another drawdown in crude oil stocks, despite the five year tendency of stocks to grow this week,” said Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover. “We would be shocked to see a crude build, as a result.”

    The release by Kurdish rebels of eight Turkish soldiers over the weekend was cited as contributing to a possible perception of lower political risk in crude prices Monday.

    But the tensions surrounding a possible Turkish military incursion into northern Iraq to tackle militants of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, persist, driving crude market concerns that both oil infrastructure and wider regional stability could be damaged by an escalation.

    Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in Washington Monday for talks with U.S. President George W. Bush, a meeting that could prove decisive, with Turkish leaders signaling that a decision on what to do about the PKK rebels may hinge on what Erdogan can bring back from Washington to a Turkish public that favors military action in northern Iraq.

    The oil markets continue to monitor comments emerging from Iran concerning the country’s controversial nuclear program, while the imposition of martial law in Pakistan over the weekend added to the list of geopolitical concerns that could weigh on greater regional stability.

    While some question the fundamental justification of crude oil prices at current levels, concerns of a tight fourth quarter continue to pervade the crude oil market and have prompted calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to introduce another output increase when it meets later this month.

    But a survey of oil traders, analysts and industry sources by Dow Jones Newswires published Thursday suggests OPEC increased crude oil production in October by 1.24%, or 382,000 barrels from the previous month to 31.23 million barrels.

    The latest numbers show the OPEC-10 produced in October about 22,000 barrels a day above the group’s new production target of 27.25 million barrels, effective since Nov. 1.

    —By Nick Heath; Dow Jones Newswires;

  3. 3
    scoop006 Says:

    SAMBONE Are you in Conneticut?

  4. 4
    jazzkool Says:

    Z, look for your blasts on FTO and WNR.


  5. 5
    freeflow Says:

    Drybulk down. EXM’s earnings are this Thursday correct?

  6. 6
    Sambone Says:

    Scoop – Down south baby! “Tha south’s gonna do it again”! LOL

  7. 7
    scoop006 Says:

    Z Can you tell me which member of this community is located in the State of Conneticut. I need to find a top notch attorney in the Hartford Conn. area.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    EXM data unknown…it changed since I posted the calendar.

    oil breaking 94 now as broadmarket weakens

    Scoop – I can’t but you can try the online yellow pages

  9. 9
    jazzkool Says:

    freeflow, Briefing.com says 11/13 AMC for EXM.


  10. 10
    Sambone Says:

    Gonna be an ugly day.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Sam – agreed but they may work it out by the close.

    Thanks Jazz

  12. 12
    Sambone Says:

    8:47 am EST

    Nymex Crude Takes A Breather From Charge Up

    From Market Talk:
    [Dow Jones] Nymex crude futures take a breather from their relentless charge toward $100/bbl, falling amid profit taking, falling US equity futures and the release of eight Turkish soldiers captured by Kurdish militants based in Northern Iraq. Dec crude -$1.57, or -1.6%, at $94.36/bbl. The decline is small compared with the big lunges in different directions — of up to $4 — crude has been experiencing lately, and no one is calling an end to the run yet. (matt.chambers@dowjones.com)

  13. 13
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – Out FTO early?

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    ram – dunno, its getting some odd early morning up action.

    Texana – I was surprised to see how gassy APA had become…didn’t realize that.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    ram – nevermind last comment…blood red along with everything else…no I will not be panic selling.

  16. 16
    ram Says:


  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Stupid Citi/Merrill/Countrywide guys…

  18. 18
    ram Says:

    Are they and the Asian sell off the readon for the red sea today?

  19. 19
    zman Says:


  20. 20
    zman Says:

    I much prefer a sharp red open to a sharp red close.

    Seeing some bargain hunting here and there but nothing with real conviction other than APA and COP.

    WNR/FTO unusually not very red.

    OII getting pounded down $5 which is technical and I may bite if it gets a little more pronounced. EXM getting whaled on as well.

  21. 21
    aitrader Says:

    Shippers getting hammered – perhaps a good time for DSX 40 Dec calls Z?

  22. 22
    Sambone Says:

    Suits on wallstreet like their fees.

  23. 23
    Brian08 Says:

    Read cnbc.com last nite before I went to bed…They were saying we are having $94 oil because of the credit crunch in the US…

    Man that’s what I was thinking too!!! A bunch of morons on Wall Street get into illiquid assets, take writedowns, and oil goes down!! Seriously can people be this dumb??

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    DSX …isn’t that Cramer’s baby. I saw they’ve gotten him up early on CNBC today…no doubt he will tout.

    Also, rates may be just off their highs but they are still very high, this is sentiment and not fundamental trading. DSX is heavily weighted toward Panamax (fits in Panama Canal) vs the Capesize (goes around the Cape of Good Hope) which I think they only have two of.

    See latest rates:


    So it’s not a bad bet for a trade with the stock down 6-7%.

  25. 25
    aitrader Says:

    DSX seems to swing right behind DRYS and EXM with a slightly lower beta. I got into the Nov 40’s for 3.50 and out at 4.80 last week. I think they may do the same shortly for Dec 40’s. Just my best “newbie options trader” guess tho.

  26. 26
    aitrader Says:

    Sorry – meant got out DSX Nov 40’s at 5.20.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Could be a green day today….seeing some nice recoveries, refiners going green as once again products do not pace crude’s move.

    by the way the Gulf Coast gasoline crack spread has double in the last two weeks to $8. Not a bad thing for VLO.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    sorry, not doubled but almost…ran from $5.50 per barrel early last week to $8.40 by Friday.

  29. 29
    aitrader Says:

    Z – you were musing last week about NBR sitting too high. What’s your latest take on them?

  30. 30
    aitrader Says:

    Oceaneering Intl Tgt Raised To $76 From $67 By Tristone >OII

    Nov 5, 2007 09:56:58 (ET)

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires

    November 05, 2007 09:56 ET (14:56 GMT)

  31. 31
    Denise Says:

    Good morning-Z-since NG has stayed up do you think some of the little gassy guys might be worth a shot?
    Although I saw a piece this am that made a lot of sense that we are in the midst of a trend change to the larger caps and small caps will continue to underperform.

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: Entering EXM Nov $65 calls for $4 average.

  33. 33
    jazzkool Says:

    Z et al from Briefing.com
    Jefferies comments on dry bulk rates; believes the next sustained directional move for dry bulk spot charter rates should be higher : Jefferies notes that last week, Capesize dry bulk spot charter rates declined as available tonnage built up with Chinese iron ore imports slowing ahead of the annual iron ore negotiations that begin this month while Panamax and Supramax dry bulk spot charter rates remained firm. They note that with the Chinese likely to reenter and exit the market periodically during the negotiations, they expect dry bulk spot charter rates to remain volatile in the coming weeks but believe the next sustained directional move for dry bulk spot charter rates should be higher upon completion of the negotiations as the Chinese begin ramping up iron ore imports to replenish the inventories that are being drawn down and stockpile ahead of April 1, 2008 when iron ore prices are likely to increase 25-35%. (Dry bulk related stocks include DRYS, DSX, EXM, EGLE, QMAR, GNK, TBSI, ANW)

  34. 34
    jazzkool Says:

    Damn, is market volatile or what? Put in EXM order at bid of 3.90 and it went off stat.


  35. 35
    Sambone Says:



  36. 36
    zman Says:

    NBR has A LOT of rigs dry stacked. That’s not news but the duration of this may be longer than people think. Still mulling….

    Denise: yep, I like CHK and APC and maybe EOG for my large cap gas exposure. It seems to me the little guys have already been underperforming. I may add some more HK soon and PQ is begging to be bought. Nice chart as well.

    Jazz – thanks….that’s what I was saying about the rates and why DSX or EXM, who have little and no Capesize exposure shouldn’t be getting whacked like this. This move started with a small move down in the Capesize rates and then a BS Motley Fool article which I’m sure was in the hopper for the first day when rates fell. That guy is either a liar or a jerk and he is the one who said DRYS was a nothing company when it was at $15 way back in 2006. Anyway, Jefferies and Cantor Fitz are the two I would listen to on shipping.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    Just an FYI, out year numbers on DO continue to improve…I am likely to swim to them when or before I jump ship on my remaining RIG calls.

  38. 38
    Sambone Says:

    10:11 AM est

    Nymex Crude Down; Turkish Soldier Release, Equities


    NEW YORK — Crude oil futures fell Monday, pressured by the release of eight Turkish soldiers by Kurdish militants and by equities markets hit by expectations that Citigroup will write off up to $11 billion because of subprime mortgage-related securities.

    Analysts said the stock market worries and release of the soldiers prompted traders to lock in some gains made last week as prices continued a rapid march toward $100 a barrel, ending Friday at a record settlement of $95.93. Prices are now up 15% in the past month and most analysts see Monday’s pullback as merely a breather in the move higher.

    The front-month December light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was recently down $1.60, or 1.7%, at $94.33 a barrel after falling as low as $93.72. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange fell $1.48 to $90.60 a barrel.

    “We’re seeing some profit-taking after the nice run higher,” said Addison Armstrong, an analyst at TFS Energy Futures in Stamford, Conn. “Turkey seems to have gone off the front burner” and oil traders are also a little concerned that any further tightening in credit markets brought about by big bank writedowns could damp oil demand, he said.

    The Kuridstan Workers’ Party, or PKK, Sunday released the eight Turkish soldiers, who had been captured two weeks earlier. The release comes before a meeting between Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President George W. Bush to discuss a possible cross-border offensive against the Kurdish group. Oil has been supported by concerns that fighting could crimp Iraqi oil exports to Turkey, which, although sporadic since the U.S. invasion, have been running at higher rates lately.

    Investment bank Citigroup (C) said it will write off between $8 billion and $11 billion to reflect the declining value of the subprime-related securities, adding to an already reported $2.2 billion of mortgage-related write downs and trading losses last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently down 82 points, or 0.6%, at 13512.

    Also weighing on prices, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries members tied to quotas increased crude oil production in October to above their Nov. 1 targets, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of traders, analysts and industry sources. Production by the 10 members with quotas rose 327,000 barrels a day to 27.28 million barrels, which is above the 27.25 million barrels a day target agreed to take place Nov. 1 at the OPEC’s September meeting.

    “The more direct fundamental pressure (on crude prices) is from rising OPEC production,” rather than equity prices, Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup in New York, said in research note.

    Front-month December reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, fell 3.61 cents, or 1.5%, to $2.4034 a gallon. December heating oil fell 2.95 cents, or 1.2%, to $2.5442 a gallon.

    —By Matt Chambers, Dow Jones Newswires

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    I concur with PF’s view on most national oil companies outside of Saudi and few in that area…very despotic…very much like a kid in a candy store who won’t share with the taller kid who can reach the really good candy on the top shelf.

    Also I see he’s calling $97 as the point at which the U.S. economy decides to contract due to high oil prices. That’s just absurd as a point estimate…how do ya get that? From tarot cards, a crystal ball, out of your butt? The fact of the matter is a contraction in the US economy is unlikely to be foisted on us by energy prices unless they get truly out of control on the product side. We’re seeing evidence of less driving already but winter is coming and the Christmas season will bring yet another record year for package delivery from internet orders. To pick a specific dollar value out of the air and say, “$97, don’t go near there, that’ll put the economy on its ear”…what a joke.

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    Housekeeping for New People: It’s a good idea to read the Brief Tour of Zeb link above at left. It offers some tricks on navigating the site. By the way, if you ever want to make sure you are on the current post just click the blog title at the top of the page.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Go APC! We added Dec $60 Calls Friday if you did not see for tonight’s earnings.

    Oil running parallel to DJIA…APA probably goes green and runs to new highs by Wednesday.

  42. 42
    aaatest Says:

    time check test 11:04

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    hear ya 11:04…snappy

  44. 44
    Nicky Says:

    Morning all. Looks like that ‘was’ our correction!

    Next news to move the energy market has got to be the result of the meeting between the Turkish PM and Bush I guess.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    Hey Nicky, yeah I’d say so….people are still hell bent for $100 so while they may spin the meeting as positive I think the December $100 call volume is likely to drag us higher.

  46. 46
    Nicky Says:

    Yes Z although I am mindful that little fresh length has entered the market. Short covering yes but will that be enough to make the assault on 100?

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    …should get another withdrawal this week which is probably somewhat baked into prices now. Could be a very volatile Wednesday…a build in stocks (which I’d have to say is unlikely given Mexico’s troubles) would knock prices for a loop. I think we get a 1 to 2 million barrel draw which is going to drive prices higher. Next week you have some catch up from Mex but then you have some (???) disruption in Atlantic traffic due to Noel.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    We’re hugging $95 now. The stocks are red with oil off almost a buck at $95. Never thought I’d type that. Really like COP here for a big rebound. APA too.

  49. 49
    Nicky Says:

    Yes agree a draw looks to be on the cards this week and next. 100 seems a bit too perfect!

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    TSO has given back the entire Tricenda based rally. The stock is cheap again and spreads are improving. I’ll be looking to take some longer dated calls here soon near the money.

  51. 51
    Nicky Says:

    Distillates now looking very strong but rbob not going with this.

  52. 52
    Denise Says:

    Food for thought-
    Cramer column on NAT-CEO just bought 2 tankers(had put off previously)says this is the level for crude that traffic slows-price will come down. Cramer also points out that this CEO had been right and early in calling for the rally in crude. By buying he is putting his money where his mouth is
    Not a bad chart on NAT

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    Denise – when you put that together with the news last week that FRO is considering converting 20 tankers to drybulk it could be interesting time in the tankers. Bill knows these far better than I …rates should be seasonally weakest now.

  54. 54
    Denise Says:

    I was just looking at the GMR chart hmmm..Which co is better? do not follow them

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    gasoline outpaced last week, HO now flat on day.

    Denise: me either really, just a trader from time to time in them. I’ve had good success with FRO in the past. I think Bill likes TOPT but don’t want to put words in his mouth. FRO is off about 12% over the last month (2nd worst in group) and TOPT is down 18% same period.

    Chart on GMR does look interesting, also OSG chart. Will update the earnings calendar for these momentarily.

  56. 56
    Denise Says:

    z-another buy I made last week-
    RAIL-earnings beat-coal car builder-may be early (or wrong)but I figured you can not be hurt too badly stepping off a curb
    -own ARII also

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Denise – I’ve been in and out of Rail this year, like the company a lot. Saw they beat on the 3Q…did you catch the direction of the backlog…had been falling…same question on backlog re ARII.

    Updated 3Q07 Earnings tab above left to add a tanker calendar.

  58. 58
    Nicky Says:

    Its interesting now that they are running out of reasons to ‘fundamentally’ talk the energy market up and are blatantly saying it is down to speculation.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    I’m surprised no one is talking the Pakistan card on the bear side. The scenario goes like this:

    Pakistan declares martial law: check
    Terrorists seize nuclear weapon: hmmmm
    Part of India, the second fastest growing oil consumer after China, goes up in a mushroom cloud.
    Oil demand collapses.

  60. 60
    Nicky Says:

    but hey ho time for the next ramp….

  61. 61
    Nicky Says:

    Z – no bear talk around here please!

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    holy crap oil is green

  63. 63
    Denise Says:

    One of my main reasons ARII is the 6mm shares-45% that Ichan owns-tagging along-below his basis-earnings tomorrow-
    Also almost 16% short in RAIL-if they were to show more improvement next quarter-should maybe move some non believers to cover-
    I did see the backlog

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    EXM – looks technical but man did I step on a land mine here. Anyone got anything?

  65. 65
    Sambone Says:

    11:43 am EST

    Nymex Crude Pares Losses, Climbs Above $95

    Dow Jones Newswires
    From Market Talk:
    Nymex crude pares losses, along with the US stock market, and after prices hold $94/bbl. Dec crude -68c at $95.25/bbl after earlier trading as low as $93.72. DJIA now off 53 points after being down 100 earlier. Resistance is expected near $95.25 and if it breaks emphatically through that, prices will likely try to challenge new records, says senior analyst Tom Bentz at BNP Paribas. Crude settlement record is $95.93 and its intraday record is $96.24.

  66. 66
    Nicky Says:

    Kilduff on CNBC now – $100 on oil this week for sure according to him.

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    APC pretty happy pre earnings. EOG, XTO, CHK will likely rally on a beat here.

    Kilduff is talking his book…he should have said this week or next.

  68. 68
    bgoske Says:

    saw on newswire that EXM enters into time charter agreements for the M/V Birthday at $92,750/day, and the M/V Marybelle at $50,650/day

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    Dry bulk not going way of do-do yet:


  70. 70
    zman Says:

    Thanks bg:

    Those are good prices, for Panamax and Handymax time charters…

    I’m hearing Saudi bound tanker rates have dropped by a third in last week….maybe people are speculating that this drop will spill into the bulk rates.

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    EXM in support now at $58…very odd, abandon ship action.

  72. 72
    freeflow Says:

    DRYS almost at 100

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    yep, and market acting like dog meat again.

  74. 74
    Sambone Says:

    Financials getting beat up again. I guess the traders are back from lunch.

  75. 75
    freeflow Says:

    I think I may start shorting financials in order to make some trades.

  76. 76
    Nicky Says:

    when are we likely to hear news out of the Bush/Turkey meeting?

  77. 77
    Nicky Says:

    Energy no longer turning south with the Dow.

  78. 78
    freeflow Says:


  79. 79
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – What are you thoughts on life?

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    Freeflow…exactly. they’ve sapped the strength out of every name that was up for earnings tonight and tomorrow (except KWK and APC barely). I see no reason to rush to make trades given the DJIA is towing the line on energy.

    Nicky – don’t see a time on that meeting end …I wouldn’t expect anything to come of it though other than a photo op.

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    ram – #79?

  82. 82
    ram Says:

    Sort of trying to get the blood moving again.

  83. 83
    Brian08 Says:

    So how much does Prince get for being a stumbling bafoon?? $100MM?? $200MM??

  84. 84
    Nicky Says:

    Z – if they can’t come to some sort of agreement and temper the situation it will be fodder for the bulls.

    Energy did finally turn with the broader markets!

    SPX has support at 1497 and 1488.

  85. 85
    Sambone Says:

    Brian – I’m hearing 41 million.

  86. 86
    ram Says:

    If financial stocks are out of favor, then does it stand to reason that the money would flow towards energy stocks?

  87. 87
    zman Says:


    CHK Dec $40 Calls for $1.45 average.

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    #86 spot on in my book. The multiples are cheaper and no one is arguing that prices are going to be coming down on the underlying commodities.

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    So who’s the next money center bank to disclose the loss of two year’s of earnings, thousands of layoffs, and the fact that they have been generally incompetent?

  90. 90
    Nicky Says:

    #89 Anyone who’s looking for a $41million dollar payout!

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    DJIA within 10 pts of Friday’s lows. next support looks to me to be 13,300.

  92. 92
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – Since this is where APC was bought Fri., would you think about doubling before the close?

  93. 93
    Sambone Says:

    N – Chuck Prince at C, now retired.

  94. 94
    Sambone Says:

    Z – I think BSC, WB are due. Possible that MBI and ABK could go belly up.

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    Ram – yes, I’ve come close several times but can’t get my eyes off the stupid broad market tick charts which are dragging it and everything else lower so I ‘ve decided to wait and see how many bucks everything is down in the last thirty, especially since oil went flying down from flat into the Nymex close.

    Sheeesh, EXM down 17% on the day…did they sink a ship? DSX down 16%, DRYS down 11%

    I’m going to send old Chuck a bill for today’s trading losses. MY companies are doing very well thank you very much but you’d think they were writing unsecured 3rd mortgages.

  96. 96
    ram Says:

    APC triyng to go green.

  97. 97
    Sambone Says:

    Z – Chuck anit workin no mo, send the bill to the board of directors.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    VLO is either AMC today or BMO tomorrow. I’m holding my position into close.

    KWK acting very well before numbers. This one has acted almost too well for the last several weeks, much like SWN will need a beat but they probably get it.

  99. 99
    Sambone Says:

    Whats interesting about the financials is that for the most part they have broken all support and are in freefall. Wonder how Ken Lewis over at BAC is feeling about his preferred CFC stock is doing?

  100. 100
    ram Says:

    SAMB – BQI reported the findings – Could this be a “buying oppty based on the info?

  101. 101
    Nicky Says:

    The action today in the energy futures maybe more relevant than we are originally giving it credit for.

    Thinking aloud but…. distillates makes new high, not confirmed by wti. So a negative divergence setting up. Hard reversals into the close and closing near lows of the day and both wti and distillates sitting on support. However rbob went through support into the close.
    This may only be a iv wave correction but it looks to have further to go…

  102. 102
    Brian08 Says:

    Z Re #95…I hope that rat bast*** can’t take a dump for a year…He gets $40MM for making me lose 2% today…Thanks…

  103. 103
    Nicky Says:

    Just handing my notice in at home – hoping for a big payout!

  104. 104
    Nicky Says:

    volume is lighter today in the broader indices which is a positive that we are maybe in some sort of short term bottoming process.

  105. 105
    Sambone Says:

    Ram – Yes, they only reported Axle lake and it is almost spot on what the company reported. We are still waiting on another report (Norwest) on the other properties. I expect a JV announcement in 1st half 08. It will be listed on the Toronto soon. My target is 12.00 at this point. Heavy option action today. Shaking out the nervous sisters who don’t know how to read.

  106. 106
    Nicky Says:

    Also note that was wti’s 3rd attempt to get through that area of resistance around 96.20 – signs of failure…

  107. 107
    Sambone Says:

    2:37 pm EST

    Nymex Crude Pares Gains, Now Steady


    NEW YORK — Crude oil futures briefly moved into positive territory Monday during quiet trading, as traders took advantage of a dip in prices to increase bets on further gains.

    The futures tested ground above $96 a barrel before holding steady near Friday’s record close of $95.93 a barrel.

    Light, sweet crude for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was recently down 12 cents, or 0.1%, at $95.81 a barrel after rising as high as $96.12 a barrel, just above Friday’s record settlement of $95.93. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange was recently down 12 cents at $91.96 a barrel.

    No obvious changes to oil’s supply and demand balance seemed to precipitate the move upwards, said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president at Macquarie Futures USA in New York.

    “These downward moves are only the market’s daily gyrations in its move to higher ground,” Barakat said.

    Crude oil futures had been weighed on by the release of eight Turkish soldiers by Kurdish militants and by equities markets hit by expectations that Citigroup will write off up to $11 billion because of subprime-mortgage-related securities.

    Analysts said the stock market worries and release of the soldiers prompted traders to lock in some gains made last week but that pullback was merely a breather in the move higher toward $100 a barrel

    The Kuridstan Workers’ Party, or PKK, Sunday released the eight Turkish soldiers, who had been captured two weeks earlier. The release comes before a meeting between Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President George W. Bush to discuss a possible cross-border offensive against the Kurdish group. Oil has been supported by concerns that fighting could crimp Iraqi oil exports to Turkey, which, although sporadic since the U.S. invasion, have been running at higher rates lately.

    Investment bank Citigroup (C) said it will write off between $8 billion and $11 billion to reflect the declining value of the subprime-related securities, adding to an already reported $2.2 billion of mortgage-related write downs and trading losses last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently down 50 points, or 0.4%, at 13545.

    Also weighing on prices, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries members tied to quotas increased crude oil production in October to above their Nov. 1 targets, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of traders, analysts and industry sources. Production by the 10 members with quotas rose 327,000 barrels a day to 27.28 million barrels, which is above the 27.25 million barrels a day target agreed to take place Nov. 1 at the OPEC’s September meeting. Front-month December reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, fell 2.2 cents, or 0.9%, to $2.4175 a gallon. December heating oil rose 53 points, or 0.2%, to $2.579 a gallon.

    —By Matt Chambers, Dow Jones Newswires

  108. 108
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – Does it seem that PTR adr’s are “cheap” now?

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    Ram – my two cents – it’s a little light of old estimate but not far off. If the rest pans out anywhere close you’re talking 2 billion barrels of recoverable reserves (20% would be a little generous but it makes for nice round numbers to talk to). The other pieces are thought to be 8.5 B bbs by the company. Put that up against a stock that is under $1.4 B in market cap and you can see the value.

    PTR = not cheap

  110. 110
    O.W. Says:

    hey, Z , maybe sell and recover some of the pieces left by the WNR trade? otherwise looks like a scud, imo…

  111. 111
    zman Says:

    O.W. – I’ve got 9 days left after today, will see how VLO reaction and a better (non-red) day treat it.

  112. 112
    ram Says:

    Thanks and Thanks.

  113. 113
    zman Says:

    Re 111: Don’t get me wrong, I’m not concerned with getting back to even…that’s a suckers bet with options since you and only you, not the market, cares about what you paid for a stock let alone an option. Still, I think I can do better than $0.20 bid.

  114. 114
    zman Says:

    Tough market…last week people couldn’t get enough of SWN before and after earnings. Two trading days later and it’s worst in group down 4%.

  115. 115
    TTupp Says:

    re: 108 , that stock is worth like $110 according to wall street analysts

  116. 116
    zman Says:

    T – WNR? Worth $110?

  117. 117
    O.W. Says:

    when they decide to bottom it, 2:30 EST seems like the time, always.. also 1490 on the S&P acts as major support for quite a few times now

  118. 118
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – Were you thinking of rolling forward RIG or BTU?

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    Who wants to be the drybuks snap back first good DJIA day with some serious index outperformance?

    Happy holding BTU here…RIG I’m not rolling on and will either take a break from deep capable drillers or will go with DO which is getting kicked in the head today.

    OW – agree completely.

  120. 120
    Brian08 Says:

    FTO holding up very well today…

  121. 121
    zman Says:

    The concern I have, and it’s why I’m not doubling FTO is that the big guys, VLO, TSO, SUN have seen their estimates fly down in just the last week since the TSO brick. FTO, WNR, ALJ not really seeing the move if at all. While cracks are good I’m sort of crossing my fingers that investors know (and they should by now) that the 3Q numbers are a “throw away” quarter.

    FTO announce on the 7th

  122. 122
    TTupp Says:

    no ptr

  123. 123
    Denise Says:

    Anyone know why GST is up?

  124. 124
    Nicky Says:

    Bush has just had a conference call denouncing PKK and offering to share intelligence with Turkey.

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    Denise – no idea, now news…looks like bottom fishing.

  126. 126
    Sambone Says:

    So that makes the overall market happy. Helps Citi’s earnings? etc. Wow, now I know.

  127. 127
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: COP Nov $85 CALLs for $1.61. This brings my average cost down to $2.19.

  128. 128
    zman Says:

    That thing jumped while I was pasting the trade into the email.

  129. 129
    zman Says:

    Ram – how do you feel about life?

  130. 130
    Sambone Says:

    Z – I feel good about life everytime I wake up. LOL

  131. 131
    zman Says:

    Nicky – just saw that…sharing intelligence. How can we do that when our left arm doesn’t even talk to our right arm and we are an octupus with tons of arms?

    Saw OJ is going to use the fact that the FBI knew he was going to commit a crime but did nothing to stop him as a defense to say that he had the government’s de facto approval to steal those objects. The FBI said they didn’t want their name attached to any more cases like this so they didn ‘t bother to even tip of the local police, lol.

    S – me too.

  132. 132
    Sambone Says:

    Could be a “Pikey”, ya know.
    “Now, Pikeys are well known for their skills of negotiation and business. It’s probably the reason they talk like they do . . . so you can’t follow much of what is being said. But, if Tommy can get the caravan for less than the price asked, on his return there will be an ice cream waiting.”

  133. 133
    zman Says:

    that KWK really responded to an up market. Probably should buy some calls but I hate sitting in the nosebleed section.

  134. 134
    ram Says:

    Ya know, it’s all about little RAM. Everythings good. Although I am tring to cope with losing my identity – I have been changed to little RAM’s dad.

  135. 135
    zman Says:

    Ram – that’s not so bad. That just makes you Big Ram which is great if you’re an NFL running back or porn star 😉

  136. 136
    Sambone Says:

    Poor poor little ram.

  137. 137
    Sambone Says:

    Kinda rimes, don’t it?

  138. 138
    zman Says:

    DVN acting well in here too. They report on the 7th.

    Hopefully CHK gives another reserves update tonight…growth from the Barnett should be massive.

  139. 139
    ram Says:

    I can’t tell you the grief I get from MRS. RAM about the web address. It was only based upon my middle initials and the first part of last name. The crap I get in the email is terrible – rammastr – how is that bad? LOL

  140. 140
    zman Says:

    no, no…it sounds like a promising career.

  141. 141
    ram Says:


  142. 142
    zman Says:

    rammastr – just sounds like you’re in charge! which is always promising for one’s career. unless you run a place like citi where they give you enough rope to hang yourself with.

  143. 143
    zman Says:

    APC – no adding – probably should have but I’m pretty long right now as is.

  144. 144
    Sambone Says:

    Add MER to that Z.

  145. 145
    zman Says:

    Sam – true

    ugggg – PQ in morning forgot to add it like a dope.

    CHK is after close tomorrow.

  146. 146
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – With regards to #143, it is not clear when you declare ZTRADES, how deep you are committing. It is not clear if your trade is 25%, 50%, or 100% on the initial blast.

  147. 147
    zman Says:

    Ram – I scale in in thirds or quarters of my ultimate expected position. What more do you want to know?

  148. 148
    ram Says:

    That was the info. For instance, APC on Fri was a third or a quarter.

  149. 149
    zman Says:

    Ram – call me Z. ZMAN is too formal. In that case it was about one-third of what I consider to be a normal position. Believe me I’ll point it out if its 1) high risky or 2) a fence swing (almost never). Further, any position can go to 0 in the morning since this is options and that happens. People can set all the stops they want during the day but the open is what the open is so unless you come out every night, forget about it. The trick is to have more winners than losers at the end of the month, quarter, year what have you. Somebody suggested I list an approximate stock price near the time of sending the blast which I may start doing if it seems helpful.

  150. 150
    freeflow Says:

    Any APC earnings yet?

  151. 151
    zman Says:

    Not yet…I’ll be back in a few.

  152. 152
    freeflow Says:

    QMAR reported a good quarter

  153. 153
    freeflow Says:

    DRYS reporting tomorrow AMC

  154. 154
    zman Says:

    thanks free flow…looking over single digit midget favorite END. Good numbers so far. At a $1.25, it IS an option, lol.

  155. 155
    TTupp Says:

    exm, what a piece of garbage stock. im taking the dead cat bounce tomorrow

  156. 156
    TTupp Says:

    drys is reporting tomorrow now?

  157. 157
    zman Says:

    DRYS after the close tomorrow:


  158. 158
    TTupp Says:

    im sure they’re beat will be good for the sub-industry if the friggin’ market co-operates. i think these stocks are hitting stop loss triggers or something, because most of the shares, i was reading, are extremely held and the rest are day traders and position traders.

  159. 159
    zman Says:


  160. 160
    zman Says:

    nevermind the CVX comment, erroneous headline …

  161. 161
    freeflow Says:

    nothing on APC yet?

  162. 162
    zman Says:


    There’s a flood of number coming out. CRK looked pretty good but gave not guidance.

    Anybody care about SGY…if not I’m not going to bother looking there tonight.

  163. 163
    TTupp Says:

    so did ptr lose $130,000,000,000 in market value in one day?

    this company is going to make an example of everything that mainlanders have been deprived of by being kept in a bubble all these years. the class A shares trade at 50x’s forward earnings, this is retared

  164. 164
    TTupp Says:

    whers the apc #’s jeez

  165. 165
    zman Says:

    Saw an article this morning that said ADS’ typically trade at 80% of the A shares for these company’s . I have not tried to sit down and figure out how the $1.1 T is calculated or if a 13% loss here would equal your number or not. Stands to reason it would be different but still quite large.

    It is a ridiculous multiple and I’d like to see a reserve number here to put it up against XOM BP est for valuation.

  166. 166
    zman Says:

    They sometimes come out at 8 or later. Might even be morning.

  167. 167
    zman Says:

    big reversal on oil starting…

  168. 168
    TTupp Says:

    interesting article on everything coal

  169. 169
    TTupp Says:

    oh yea tey are based out of alberta and their 2 hours back

  170. 170
    TTupp Says:

    nm i was thinking nexen since i was just reading something about them. Freudian slip

  171. 171
    freeflow Says:

    APC looks like it beat estimates on briefing.com

  172. 172
    TTupp Says:

    ye it looks like a beat , but comparable q’s eps dropped from ~ $3 –> $1, nevertheless analysts were looking for $0.38. they also beat big on top line numbers too.

    im sure Z will give a rundown in the AM.

  173. 173
    aitrader Says:

    Year-To-Date Results

    For the nine-month period, Anadarko’s net income available to common stockholders increased to $3.63 billion or $7.76 per share from $2.82 billion or $6.09 per share last year. Net income for the period climbed to $3.63 billion from $2.83 billion in the year-ago period.

    Income from continuing operations for the period climbed to $3.61 billion or $7.72 per share from $2.51 billion or $5.40 per share in the previous-year period.

    Total revenues for the first nine months rose to $13.00 billion from $7.05 billion in the prior-year period.

  174. 174
    bill Says:


    Re 52 & 54
    >CEO had been right and early in calling for the rally in crude.

    The ceo does not call crude prices and really doesnt care about the cost of crude. they had a rambling discussion this am and he wanted to talk about anything except their crap q3 results which resulted in a q3 loss. I like buying companies that are making money.

    Stay away from tankers at the moment. Rates are weak but should improve as winter approaches and we need to get oil here.

    If you need to be in the sector I’d recomend TNP or Topt but dont buy Topt until late Decemeber

    I was actully short nat and long puts which i covered today at a nice gain.

  175. 175
    bill Says:

    regading gmr and nat they have diferent operating models

    One (gmr) has signed up long term charters for their ships. that in hindsight has been a good move since the spot rates have declined

    Nat is entirely exposed to the spot market which means they get whatever the rate is whenevr a ship is ready to ship oil. the rates are volatile and at the moment lower than normal.

    If rates go up sharply, nat would be better. But it’s fully priced at 36.50. i wouldnt touch it unless it goes to 30.

    I think GMR is fully valued as well.

  176. 176
    bill Says:

    Im buying dry calls tomorrow before the earnings are released after hours.

    There are rumors, that Drys is looking at buying QMAR. I have no clue on the validity of this. As I said , it’s a rumor.

    Comment on todays trading action in dry sector. First of all, the stock are moving together even though there are substanital diferences in each companies operating models. Drys deserves to be 100 or more some of the other ones do not deserve frothy valuations. Qmar for example has brand spanking new cape size ships that are on long term charters with rates that are just 20 % of today spot rates. Thats like an oil production company that pre- sold its output at 15 dollars per bbl

    Last Tuesday, the dry stocks cratered on news of weakening rates, which followed a Motley Fool article that Drys was overpriced. This I believe shook the confidence on many longs who looked for an opportunity to lighten their positions into any rally’s

    fact is rates backed off a bit from their highs but still pretty near all time highs.

    Cramer about 2 weeks ago finally discovered the sector and began pumping DSX. last Friday , on his show he had the ceo of dsx and asked about the supply of ships and didnt like his answer and refused to hit his buy buy button. He had a pained expression on his face and it now appears he is flip flopping on the sector

    The stocks weakend in after hours trading.

    Today , tradewinds, The indusries newpaper, talked about the goings on in the dry sector last week and the volitality.

    Today, imho was a great buying opportunity.

    Z made a comment last week that stayed with me

    “Thats why I hate momentum stocks” I couldn’t agree more

    I liked it more when no one knew about it. Its on the IBD top 10 list and has gone up 8 times from last years lows. So , it is extremely risky.

    But what would you value a company that could earn 15 to 20 next year?

  177. 177
    bill Says:

    watch this

    Cramer on friday interview dsx ceo which then caused him to flip flop on dsx and the dry bulk sector


    Comment: there will be many new ships delivered in 3 years which could ease the current shortage which would cause rates to fall.

    the rates currently are so high, an owner can pay for a ship in 5 years with the cash flow that is spun off. Ships last 25 years or longer.

  178. 178
    bill Says:

    then cramer said this tonight

    Hey Cramer: Love your show. I saw your phone interview with Diana Shipping Diana Shipping IncDSX
    38.92 -4.00 -9.32% NYSE

    Quote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlist
    [DSX 38.92 -4.00 (-9.32%) ] CEO Mr. Palios and could see how his lack of enthusiasm tempered you a bit. However, I got the sense that there may have been a language barrier problem with the conversation. It seemed possible that Mr. Palios may have been more concerned with articulating his story with proper English, than with the usual enthusiasm your other phone guests seem to know they should have. After all, anybody in the know acknowledges that this story changes as soon as more ships get built in the next couple of years. Any follow-up on this story? –Nick

    Cramer says: “I was completely depressed by Palios … I don’t care what language it was in, he was negative.”

  179. 179
    bill Says:

    You watch the video and draw your own conclusions.

    Cramer is clueless on the sector and his mad money is flowing into and out of stocks.

    It’s all noise, imho, a steady hand will guide you thru the storm

  180. 180
    bill Says:

    here are actual fixtures done on Monday


    the first one listed is a cape for 11 to 13 months at 167.5 per day. Thats 61 m dollars!! The ship new is 135 m. So if this rates holds up for 2 years it pays for the ship. That like buying a house for 135,000 and renting it out for one year at 5,000 a month. Do you realy care if you only get 4,500 a month???

    another one at 150 k per day

    the 4th one down is a panamax (This is what drys mainly owns) 92 k per day

    These are at or near record highs!!

    these are actual daily rates for the last 35 days.

    Do you see a decline??

    10/1 76,615
    10/2 76,298
    10/3 77,245
    10/4 77,811
    10/5 77,989
    10/8 78,281
    10/9 79,700
    10/10 83,219
    10/11 85,675
    10/12 88,379
    10/15 88,885
    10/16 88,513
    10/17 88,013
    10/18 87,499
    10/19 87,901
    10/22 88,396
    10/23 90,248
    10/24 91,235
    10/25 91,975
    10/26 93,301
    10/29 94,387
    10/30 94,977
    10/31 93,362

    oct avg 86,245

    11/1 92,552
    11/2 91,887
    11/5 90,823

  181. 181
    bill Says:

    buying drys with both hands tomorrow

    i have to admit, I almost lost my nerve when the stock was at 102

  182. 182
    bill Says:

    The BDI fell 9 points to 10,539..thats like the dow being down 9! It means nothing


    Sector Glance: Drybulk Shippers Sink
    Monday November 5, 4:19 pm ET
    Shares of Drybulk Shippers Sink Amid Volatility in Chinese Iron Ore Market
    NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of drybulk shippers sank along with the broader market Monday, as volatility in the Chinese iron ore market drove some investors out of the sector.
    Spot charter rates for the largest drybulk carriers dropped last week after some analysts suggested Chinese iron ore importers and steel producers were trying to manipulate the market and drive rates lower ahead of iron ore contract negotiations in early 2008.

    The Baltic Dry Index, which covers drybulk shipping rates and is managed by the Baltic Exchange in London, fell 9 points Monday to 10,853. The index measures rates on 40 shipping routes on a time charter and voyage basis.

    Jefferies & Co. analyst Douglas J. Mavrinac said while it’s likely the volatility in the Chinese iron ore market will continue over the next few weeks, drybulk shipping rates should rise after the negotiations are complete.

    Mavrinac said he continues to believe the market will remain bullish through 2008.

  183. 183
    texana Says:

    prediction: within the next 6 months one of the bric countries oil cos will make hostile bid for one of the top American based e&p cos. Targets: apa,apc,chk,dvn, eog,hes,mur, & oxy. xom,cvx or cop would love to marry any of these brides but can’t make the initial proposal because of am gov’t ,unless there is foreign prop ie unocal.My vote is for apa because the for.oil co could tell the am gov’t that the would spin off us co. and keep all of the rest of the world assets which is really where apa’s greatest assets lie. the chinese & middle easterns are ready spend a lot of those devaluing $ on hard assets. Also xpect all out race to consolidate smaller e&p cos if oil drop back in the 70’s . These cos hold huge producing tracts of land that are hbp and it almost impossible to assemble large tracts of land today with 3 year leases, only so many wells that can be drilled.the pres of apa said the other day on the conf call that the only cos they would look @ for acq would be ones that had large tracts of land held by production. musing of a late night oil trader

  184. 184
    TTupp Says:

    bill ur great lol. keep up the good work.

  185. 185
    bill Says:

    odays tradewwinds

    US-listed dry-bulk shipping companies saw another round of declines today, with Excel Maritime Carriers leading the bear pack.

    The New York-listed Greek bulker owner’s stocks dropped 12.2% to close at $59.37.

    Yonkers, New York-based TBS International followed, as the owner’s shares dropped 10.2% to $53.92.

    Greek bulker owner Diana Shipping saw its share prices shrink 9.41% to $38.88.

    An analyst told TradeWinds that the sector slide may have been associated with an appearance by Diana Shipping CEO Simeon Palios on CNBC’s Mad Money.

    In a Friday interview with host Jim Cramer, Palios said a tightly balanced market makes “the prediction of future rates a very dangerous exercise,” although he said he is optimistic about the short- to medium-term forecast for freight rates.

    Cramer said he had hoped for a more reassuring prediction after declines last week.

    “I like the stock, but I am not hitting the bull button,” he said.

    “I think that’s mostly a problem with the translation from Greek to English,” the analyst said today.

    He said investors whom Cramer had encouraged to enter the market for dry-bulk stocks may have been spooked by the comments. To the analyst, the day’s drops were just another “correction”.

    Shares of Greek dry-bulk shipping company DryShips drooped 7.08% to $105.92 at the closing bell, while New York-based Genco Shipping and Trading watched its shares close 6.68% lower to settle at $64.24.

  186. 186
    bill Says:

    drys up 4 bucks in premarket

    looks like the sector will be up 5 % today

  187. 187
    zman Says:

    Gotta love the move on VLO.

    and HAL, CHK way into breakout territory.

    and you should now be able to exit FTO at breakeven or better.

  188. 188
    hard rubber strips Says:

    hard rubber strips

    Zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… » Blog Archive » RED Monday – PTR Becomes Easily The Biggest Company on the Plant

  189. 189
    guardrails for roads Says:

    guardrails for roads

    Zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… » Blog Archive » RED Monday – PTR Becomes Easily The Biggest Company on the Plant

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