26
Oct
Friday – No, not the weekend…we’re having too much fun
We sold all or part of three positions yesterday for 100% to over 300% gains with holding periods of 20 days or less. Lots more where that came from! As always, I plan to sell into strength and buy into weakness.
Backup Site Watch: We've had some technical difficulties over the last two days. Hopefully they are fixed this morning but you never can be sure. I've built a back up site in the event you can't get in over here. Please bookmark it but do not disseminate the address. It is not a searchable address so the only way to find out about it is here and via email. Thanks. The address is:
http://zmanbackup.wordpress.com
Commodity Watch
- Crude Oil Closed Up $3.36 to $90.46!!! yesterday as new U.S. sanctions against Iran raised concerns that Tehran would use oil as a weapon. Overnight oil was trading actively to nearly $92 due to continued Iran fears plus:
- Alberta Bumps Up Royalties; Abandons Oil Sand Tax But Talks Of "Renegotiating Deals". Last night Alberta chose to join the ranks of socialists the world over in raising royalties on oil and gas companies. The new rates, which will hike royalties from current highs of 35 per cent to a maximum 50 per cent for conventional oil and natural gas, won't take effect until 2009. There should be a long list of Capital Budget redirection press releases as companies find alternative provinces in which to spend their future dollars. Congratulations to Albertan Premier Ed Stelmach for providing the single biggest boost to Saskatchewan's job market in history. There is a silver lining here: I still have puts on (SU).
Renegotiating Deals With The Oil Sand Players But Not Adding a New Tax. Sounds like Chavez to me. From Canada.com ~ Rather than charging a severance tax on oilsands bitumen, Stelmach says he will negotiate with oilsands giants Syncrude and Suncor to change long-term deals and accept a price-sensitive royalty formula. Under the new oilsands regime and at current oil prices, the one-per-cent holiday oilsands companies currently enjoy until their projects are paid out will rise to just over four per cent and could hit nine per cent if oil reaches $120 per barrel.
As to the very near term, I think traders can rally crude another buck or two and then let it fall back (profit taking) to the new round number support of $90. If that holds then we yo-yo to $95. At this point people have shifted focus from Turkey, which conveniently got us to the high $80s, which is now "sooo last week" , and now they're focused on Iran, which could scuttle one tanker in the Straits of Hormuz and knock oil out of the ballpark ($100). As always, the pendulum is swinging too far.
Opec Watch: Algerian and Venezuela reiterated earlier statements by other members that their is no need to raise OPEC supply. The OPEC secretary general said the market is already well supplied.
Ignored Person of the Week Watch: Tesoro's Economist for daring to say oil may be up to 50% overvalued right now! Before the open yesterday morning Tesoro's Chief Economist said as much and no one cared all day long. If you look at the inventories of just plain old crude its obvious we have a lot now. But...we simply are not importing as much this 4Q as last 4Q and with demand expected to be up I think the market can easily say that it's looking forward to a point when inventories will not be so high. Also, nobody is going to trust a guy who 1) works for a company and says that said company's chief raw component cost should be a third lower than they are at present and 2) he's an economist: I mean, have ya seen how bad these guys are off on the jobs numbers?! Anyway, he makes a good point as historically the fear premium is generally $10 to $15 per barrel...not $30.
Armenian Genocide Bill Vote Delayed. Support waned when they realized it might cause another war.
- Natural Gas: Closed up $0.22 to $7.19 despite a higher than expected gas storage injection (68 vs 54 Bcf expected). This morning gas is trading off 0$.07. Gas prices have a way of taking waypoints from these shifts from surplus to deficit and back again and if we move back into surplus next week, I'd expect gas prices to soften.
Friend of the Blog Watch: A friend of mine pointed out that I may have given short shrift to the SLB / Justice Department issue. At the time as I read the story the investigation pertained to some questionable practices on the part of one of SLB's vendors and not SLB itself. It was pointed out to me that you are required to vet your vendors and that it can be painful for both parties...the offender and the guy who hired them. I stand corrected. Trading in SLB would seem to confirm this at it fell 2.75% yesterday and this may continue to cast a cloud over the company for a little while. As you all know, I'd buy (HAL) in a heartbeat over (SLB) simply based on valuation.
Holdings Watch: yesterday as promised I started taking profits. Today is likely to see more of the same.
- (TSO) - Sold all of the Nov $50 calls for $7.80; up 333% since entry on Oct 3. Still hold the $47.50 Nov Calls.
- (VLO) - Out half Nov $67.50 calls for $5.50. Up 108% in 2 days. Group probably continues to rally.
- (BTU) - Half out Nov $50 calls for average $5.35; up 138% since entry on 9/28.
Stocks We Care About Today Watch:
- (SU) As mentioned above Alberta has decided to go ahead and accept many of the tax hike proposals put forth by a government panel last month. The meat of the matter is that it could have been worse but it's not good news for Albertan operators. SU's reaction:
"Suncor recognizes that the oil sands resource we develop is owned by the people of Alberta, and Albertans have the right to benefit economically through royalties," said Rick George, president and chief executive officer. "However, the royalty regime changes proposed by the Alberta government are substantial and could have a significant impact on industry economics. We will need time to study the changes and their potential impact on our business."
This will also have a negative impact on big Albertan oil and gas producers ECA, CNQ, PCZ, TLM , NXY etc...I'll be taking a look at these after the open for a potential quick trade.
- (NFX) They expect 2.5+ Tcfe for year end 2007 reserves. Reserve life will increase to 13 years. That’s up from 9.3 years as of year end 2006. Bottom Line: I think people wanted another guidance boost. The fact that no company on the chart from Wednesday night's post (aside from much smaller HK) has a 13 year reserve life and trades at 6x cash flow seems to be lost on the investors for the moment.
Earnings Watch:
(BHI) Reports "In-Line" 3Q07 Results
- reported $1.22 vs exp of $1.22 and revenue of $2.67 B vs exp of $2.64 B.
- sees continued strong international demand
- N. American environment remains uncertain; see any natural gas price induced weakness in drilling activity as short-lived
- says prices in N. American remain challenging to increase, focus on cost control
- no position here but I'll listen to the CC for a bit more color. From a cursory level this looked like a decent quarter however, the recent run may have needed a better than expected quarter to maintain momentum.
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch: Calyon boosts (NFX) price target from $54 to $58, (DO) cut to neutral at Calyon, (HES) upped to buy at B of A.
TDW reports in line
WNR upped to HOLD at B of A
October 26th, 2007 at 7:20 amSite problems appear to linger…
post has been duplicated on the backupsite
http://zmanbackup.wordpress.com/
October 26th, 2007 at 7:23 amgunman seize 6 offshore Nigeria
October 26th, 2007 at 7:29 amLooks like Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) missed earnings today “Cabot Oil & Gas 3rd Quarter Net Drops 88% On Year-Ago Gain” http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/cabot-oil–gas-3rd/story.aspx?guid=%7B684BA521%2DB221%2D4D6F%2D864D%2DEDA59ADF50A6%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN
Doubled up on my SUxs yesterday when they were at 106. Thx Zman.
October 26th, 2007 at 7:34 amAitrade: that’s not a miss, that’s a beat:
“Excluding those items, earnings fell to $38.4 million, or 40 cents a share, from $45.3 million, or 47 cents a share, a year earlier. The Houston-based energy company’s revenue fell to $170.8 million from $184.7 million in the year-ago period. On average, analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected per-share earnings of 38 cents excluding items on revenue of $163 million.”
The impairment is a non cash charge which should be backed out results before comparing to Consensus. On that basis they beat on both top and bottom lines. I don’t follow these guys actively any more but they are a pretty smart shop.
Nice trade on the SU…the news was mixed for them and it’s not yet resolved as the words “renegotiate deals” can mean a wide array of outcomes.
October 26th, 2007 at 7:46 amlooks like another stellar open to us… Oil up sharply.. Dollar down sharply… Iraq threatens to cut off oil supply to Turkey
October 26th, 2007 at 8:03 amOff topic:
I’m a big fan of google. However, they have made some recent adjustments to their “pay per click” advertising in the name of quality control that are already backfiring on them. There is a lot of confusion surrounding new quality score mechanism which essential forces bids to compete not with other bidders as much, as it has in the past, but with google.com. My site, I’m told, does not deal enough with topics like oil, natural gas, OPEC, stocks, options etc to be considered worthy of allowing normal bidding on search terms any longer.
October 26th, 2007 at 8:18 amAnyone having trouble getting into the site
October 26th, 2007 at 8:18 amgood for me
October 26th, 2007 at 8:21 amNEWS FLASH
TSO bid up $8…Tracinda offers $64 share for 16% of TSO
VLO bid up $4
ALJ, FTO and WNR will rally hard!
October 26th, 2007 at 8:23 amZ, what should we do with this news. Any beneficiaries that you have not mentioned in post 10.
Jazz
October 26th, 2007 at 8:30 amall right which ones of you bastards has tso calls!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
dam it dam it, was gona pair my vlo trade with them!!!! (my gf is telling me to stop yelling at my imaginary internet friends
October 26th, 2007 at 8:31 amJazz – HOC should have been listed
I think WNR has the most to rally, ALJ and FTO a little better quality but that won’t matter here.
October 26th, 2007 at 8:32 amZ- got some vlos, you think this rally will fall off after the am pop?
October 26th, 2007 at 8:35 amrest of VLO up a ridiculous 232 % .. wow.. trade of the month goes for you TSO callers.. amazing!
October 26th, 2007 at 8:38 amT – I still hold the 47.50s (which just went from a nice gain to a really nice gain ) but sold my 50s yesterday.
Like the FTO Nov $50 for $1
WNR NOV $40s but no price available yet
That offer puts TSO at 11 2008 numbers,
That makes VLO and ALJ and extreme bargain.
October 26th, 2007 at 8:38 amsell into initial excitement?
October 26th, 2007 at 8:39 amjust on the TSO but so far the bid is not working so I have not. Everything else could run up again monday. I hold tight. Tracinda coming into the energy space will be bigger and bigger news as the day rolls on .
OII, RIG – wow
October 26th, 2007 at 8:42 amZMAN – Good call on the VLO and TSO.
October 26th, 2007 at 8:46 amBTU double wow
unreal but this news swamped a perfectly good SU short. Will hold for common sense to prevail there.
ZTRADE: NOV $45 FTO CALLS for average $3
October 26th, 2007 at 8:50 amwhy is HK so unaffected by all of this?
October 26th, 2007 at 8:53 amZTRADE: NOV $40 WNR CALLS for $2.25
October 26th, 2007 at 8:54 amOW no idea…the little ones often lag on days like this for a time as everyone throws cash at the household names.
October 26th, 2007 at 8:56 amSU finally red
CHK, wowie…FINALLY!!! VINDICATION!!! Can we email Aubrey and tell him NOT to offer a convert here and just kill the MO’ of this stock??
October 26th, 2007 at 8:59 amyou got to love the tso effect on vlo, maybe on the little guys, but them its an easy sell into weakness, sold my $67 1/2’s , $230 -> $830, vurry noice– i like
October 26th, 2007 at 9:01 amSU falling back a bit as the buyers say, oh yeah, that royalty thing.
BTU holy cow! Up 300%…Hey ram, who’s the coal man now, lol.
October 26th, 2007 at 9:05 amlooking for an E&P DT mr Z (hey that rhymed), bored with this easy money
October 26th, 2007 at 9:07 amSorry T, you know I’m no good on the DTs
October 26th, 2007 at 9:10 amT: check out the behavior on SU today. That should go lower.
October 26th, 2007 at 9:12 amBHI down in the dumps even though they seemed to make their #’s this morning. Any ideas why Z?
October 26th, 2007 at 9:12 amBHI – see bottom of post. Needed a beat to maintain momentum, not a meet.
October 26th, 2007 at 9:13 amre BTU, its breaking out of a 1.5 year trading range- good call.
just a thought to the board, slb and oii trade the same was with the same underlying moves, but slb’s IV is way less and spreads are much better… happy hunting…
October 26th, 2007 at 9:16 amT – what does IV mean?
October 26th, 2007 at 9:17 amdrys needs a breakout, it would be fun to 150-160… premiums have come in a bit too
October 26th, 2007 at 9:21 amimplied volatility…the higher the iv in the more premium your are going to pay.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Implied_volatility
Thanks T – big long term picture there, I’m about done with it and will sell and reload soon. Check out the 24 month breakout CHK is experiencing…nice base, then boom.
October 26th, 2007 at 9:22 amDid I see correctly that SU broke $100 to the downside in after hours yesterday? Granted the volume is thin and it coulda been one trade…But that whole royalty thing just can’t be good…
October 26th, 2007 at 9:26 amBrian – you are correct and it was a lot of trades. It was trading around 101 this morning but Tracinda coming into the space shot everything up. They are starting to sort it out now as the stock is off again. See post for Alberta royalty announcement.
note current muted reaction in eca, cnq, pcz, tlm, nxy: all big Alberta producers although the impact varies from company to company…these should have all been off today, especially the first 3.
October 26th, 2007 at 9:29 amZ- your 50’s at +700% would have looked good on the free post 😉
October 26th, 2007 at 9:30 amThanks Z…Saw it in the journal this morning…Almost started to do a dance, then I saw all the green from all the options that you pointed out…Then I started dancing…
October 26th, 2007 at 9:31 amdon’t worry, the 47.50s up 500%+ will, lol.
October 26th, 2007 at 9:32 amZ: This site is still not reliable
October 26th, 2007 at 9:32 amHopefully the dance will continue with the FTO and WNR trades.
October 26th, 2007 at 9:33 amB – hopefully it was a manly jig and not an Elaine Beniz style dance.
October 26th, 2007 at 9:33 amB – hopefully it was a manly jig and not an Elaine Beniz style dance.
Thanks rs…they sent me a note with no apology telling me it was working fine as of 4 pm cst yesterday. my butt.
October 26th, 2007 at 9:34 ampcz , i think z, is super diversified. north sea, offshore nfd ect. i was mulling a trade in “her” lately. BMO just upgraded it, and raised targets on it. its a huge company, but has a piss poor options market… but the Novembers ar DIRT cheap– check it out zzzz
October 26th, 2007 at 9:35 amZ, VERY unfortunately missed out on TSO…I make it a point not to chase anything…By time I saw what you had posted I think it was a good ways away from where you posted you thought it would be a good value…
It wasn’t the Elaine dance, but it probably looked something close! 🙂
October 26th, 2007 at 9:38 amZ Send them back a note advising them your subscribers are having difficulty refreshing. I have to log off and the log back on in order to update. Very slow process.
October 26th, 2007 at 9:48 amFigures now working
October 26th, 2007 at 9:49 amstupid specialist taking all the fun out of the market for traders this AM!
how exactly does he do this? ive never understood the whole specialist process, and the method to his madness…
October 26th, 2007 at 9:52 amT – I’m going to hold off and see if oil will run. I agree they are highly diversified as are all those companies on the list…I have not broken out the regional production.
Scoop – message sent
October 26th, 2007 at 9:55 amMRO break-out? they are a similar co to cop eh? why is cop being treated like a red headed step chid today? it was up….. WTF… actually the other two of the big three are having a similar treatment– maybe its the post open selloff were having?
that goes back to my specialist comment, why open things ihgher if theyre just going to peeter off?
October 26th, 2007 at 9:57 amcop up $0.63
specialist just trys to balance buys and sells, very difficult on days like this with lots of buyers and no sellers, so he opens the spreads to keep from getting raped.
October 26th, 2007 at 9:59 amIf you haven’t done so, take a look at the WNR daily chart. I couldn’t stand this thing at 19x fwd earnings last summer or $64. Now under $40 that multiple is closer to 12x. Chart could run fast.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:06 amZ We traded SWN in Sept. It seems it ran up overnight
October 26th, 2007 at 10:10 amwas that for me z?
October 26th, 2007 at 10:11 amno just in general
October 26th, 2007 at 10:13 amScoop – SWN – yeah, I really missed the trade there this go around, same KWK…Not chasing as they are pretty richly valued and around $7 some of the Fayetteville Shale acreage gets pretty marginal. Saw CHK holding back there the other day.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:17 amDRYS pendulum swinging back to 122.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:22 ammy boyfriends over at bmo upped WRN to a hold from underperform last week or so too. looks like these talk could reverse the long downtrend from $65. options market for it sux tho, once it reverses that could change i guess.
sites running like crap for me too. are you sure you didnt hire mexicans from a home depot paring lot to run a server in your garage that you bought from a salvage yard in post-was ukraine?
October 26th, 2007 at 10:28 amyeah, you saw B of A did same to WNR this morning.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:29 amZ If XOM disappoints any effect on COP?
October 26th, 2007 at 10:39 amWHAT HAPPENED TO RIG?
October 26th, 2007 at 10:41 amRIG looks like it’s establishing a support floor at 116 and bouncing off of resistance at 118 IMHO.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:45 amRIG: It’s getting sucked down with the DO downgrade which makes no sense at all given the spread between their relative valuations. I was just about to comment on the poor suckers who bought DO for the special dividend who are not getting hosed.
XOM – yes it would. Again valuations are so different it would not last unless XOM really messed up. Note that they have not warned unlike most of the majors/refiners.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:45 amZMAN – Any thoughts on NFX? No trades in the JAN. Seems odd.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:46 amz- whats your / the streets thoughts on MRO?
October 26th, 2007 at 10:48 amNFX – i’m just waiting/watching/comfortable holding for now, don’t want to add on strength; maybe next week.
MRO – nothing intelligent to say there. Don’t know on Street either…not a name I track closely. Always seems pricey to me.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:50 amNot a lot to report except it the obvious which is that we are consolidating at the highs which implies further upside. Also of note is that volumes are very low which argues against a top in place – ie we probably need to see a blow off top on high volume.
As an aside Dick Cheney has said they will only use the SPR in the event of disruption – surely that’s what everyone needs to hear and is pretty obvious.
CNBC have been down on the floor of the Nymex and even the traders are saying this is way too high!
from Nicky
October 26th, 2007 at 10:57 amZMAN – I just looked at the open trades and see that you are in NFX calls. Sorry.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:01 amScoop – did you see my email?
October 26th, 2007 at 11:02 amWith Crude/NatGas now at ~13 don’t companies have to rethink using 6 for boe?
Won’t that magically decrease production and total reserves for gassy companies?
October 26th, 2007 at 11:06 amG – that’s funny
October 26th, 2007 at 11:10 amNeed some assistance…is there anyone here who sometimes cannot get in at all over the last 2 days?
October 26th, 2007 at 11:11 amsystem working now
October 26th, 2007 at 11:17 amZ – it sometimes takes 5-10 minutes for the refresh to load up the site again. that’s the max for me. works better than yesterday w/ up to 30m., but still some glitches here and there..
October 26th, 2007 at 11:17 amHave been locked out a couple of times. Am away from the computer for extended times though.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:18 amsomething wrong!! seems to be working now.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:20 amThey told me to tell everyone to reboot their PCs. I did that and it did not work for me.
If anyone feels up to it I need a trace route and ping run from your blocked or semi blocked PC back to my host. It works for some and not others. Depends on what part of the country/world you are in.
Here are the instructions:
Get to a DOS prompt c:\
type: tracert http://www.gkg.net
wait about 30 seconds and then copy and paste the results into an email and send to me at zmanalpha@gmail.com.
also would help to get a ping
for that you type: ping http://www.gkg.net
It would be a big help and especially so if run during a period when the site will not refresh or you cannot get in.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:22 amZ,
time tick test
October 26th, 2007 at 11:23 amSU Not a good stock for this board. I own it long term, but with concern. The GVT. won’t give them problems. My worry is that they are a “mining company” Capital cost to get open is more than a copper miner. At least 10x more than punching a Hole in the Ground or ocean.
Greatest 2 days in a year. I am overweight in YZC & ACI (sold some yestgerday)
CHK “new hi” very very overweight in 8,9, & 10 leaps.
Phil
October 26th, 2007 at 11:24 amZ
second time tick test
October 26th, 2007 at 11:24 amDr D.
How can you say SU is not a good stock for this board?
October 26th, 2007 at 11:24 amOk,
site just super fast for me. Everyone refresh and confirm it just got a lot faster.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:26 amZ time tick test. That last was very slow.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:26 am5×5 in NY
October 26th, 2007 at 11:27 amBlazing on the plains
October 26th, 2007 at 11:33 amSeems to be some decent action in HAL Nov 45 calls. Somebody likes them.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:33 amZ, why do you think the gas prices don’t keep up with oil? and if they don’t do so soon is this rally sustainable?
October 26th, 2007 at 11:36 amNewfield rallying nicely.
HK – thar she blows!
j – that’s pretty gutsy…wow 52K contracts! people liked the $42.50s back before SLB got slammed …made good money if they were quick, then got shattered. Highest I’d go front month is right in front of your nose, the $40s which I hold, and the $42.50s for a buck.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:37 amOW: are you talking the natural kind or the gasoline kind?
October 26th, 2007 at 11:38 amI’m talking about the refining companies.. they’re rallying now due to crude but not actually profiting more.. or am I getting this wrong?
October 26th, 2007 at 11:41 amZTRADE: added second batch of WNR $40 Nov Calls for $1.40.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:45 amwhats going on with DRYS? Valuations are cheap both fwd and trailing
October 26th, 2007 at 11:48 amactually would seem like losing profit as this gap between the crude and refined product widens towards the crude side.. Is it really more wide now then the historical average?
October 26th, 2007 at 11:50 amOW – you are not wrong but the refiners are up on the Tracinda deal more than they are on oil.
Right now front month crude is 0.8% as is ULJ (unleaded mogas) while heating oil (HO is up about 0.4%. That would yield a slightly reduced crack spread. But in generally, the refiners will trade with oil and expectations that products, which there are less of in storage as a % of historical norms will soon play catch up.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:59 amZ #82 SU The risk is incresing CAP-X cost announcements. I could be wrong.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:00 pmDr D – I agree that’s part of the risk and so would be a potential collapse in oil prices and also a renegotiation of deals which reduces IRR on the whole ball of wax. But again, I ask why you say it’s not a good stock for this site? It’s energy and we love energy…
October 26th, 2007 at 12:03 pmBet you oil gets another rally into the close. I may take the OII off the table.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:07 pmZ Can you comment on the volume in COP Nov. calls $35-$60
October 26th, 2007 at 12:17 pmZ: Re – website…Today the refresh function isn’t working, I have to go back to http://www.zmansenergybrain.com and click on the comments link at the end of the day’s write up to get back in here…Not a big deal at all, just thought you might like to know if you needed help in diagnosing what was going on…And I didn’t have any trouble yesterday getting on and using the refresh function…
October 26th, 2007 at 12:26 pmThanks B – its just one of life’s big frustrations…you work hard, you pay some dolt to keep the lights on and he takes a 3 days snooze on you…
COP still in recovery mode.
still think they run oil into the crude.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:45 pmtesting, testing, is this thing on? nice day to watch paint dry. At least it’s a nice shade of green
anybody interested in a free membership? we have an affiliate program which means you get paid for hooking your friends, family and co-workers on the site. Contact me at zmanalpha@gmail.com for details if you are interested.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:56 pmLuvin the NBR action. Don’t understand RIG and SU – it’s like their joined at the hip.
October 26th, 2007 at 1:02 pmLuvin’ the NBR action. Don’t understand RIG and SU – it’s like they’re joined at the hip with a $10 spread.
October 26th, 2007 at 1:03 pmyea z can you figure out whast going on in the ITM calls for cop, re#99? thanks
October 26th, 2007 at 1:03 pm1×1 spoke too soon from NY. Had to make 10 inputs or so to get here. Just for info. Know it is not your fault.
October 26th, 2007 at 1:05 pmAbsolutely great picks dude. Keep up the good work
Thanks.
RE COP CALLS:
That to me looks like deep conviction in a move higher. You certainly would not be selling them down there on your position hoping someone takes it from you. Very odd.
Thanks Irish…it helps to know it’s still busted and where. T
October 26th, 2007 at 1:09 pmconnection good here from my igloo
October 26th, 2007 at 1:11 pmA while back a poster was explaining NAT as a stock that was going down. I apologize for not remembering who it was. Sure enough that stock sunk. However, it is up today on no appearant news. Have rates turned around? Any explanations would be greatly appreciated.
October 26th, 2007 at 1:15 pmHey Cadillac,
It was Bill and I think he is one of the ones completely frozen out of the site. If you think about oil over 90 the move in the tankers over the last 2 days makes some sense. I’m not chasing them now but I would like to talk with him about it.
check out FRO, GNK, GMR same kind of move.
October 26th, 2007 at 1:19 pmNFX – this would be an all time closing high.
Nice end of day rally in crude
Beer thirty rapidly approaching.
October 26th, 2007 at 1:48 pmZMAN – Got the 2nd’s of WNR a little higher. They report on 11/15 vs 11/1 for TSO. Do they run up together when the first reports good news?
October 26th, 2007 at 1:56 pmZ- On 8-17-07 NFX closed @ $58.08
October 26th, 2007 at 1:56 pmSU trying to give up again.
NBR caving below support
October 26th, 2007 at 1:59 pmI stand corrected . Quote 113 was based on SCOTTRADE INFO that is WRONG
October 26th, 2007 at 2:00 pmZMAN – DO the IS people think your system is fixed?
October 26th, 2007 at 2:00 pm58.08 was an abnormal spike one day. I believe SAMB knew what happened.
October 26th, 2007 at 2:02 pmZ:
October 26th, 2007 at 2:02 pmRefreshing OK now from Cottonwood, AZ
apbd
ram – in general, yes. In this case, the cap is probably close on TSO as Tricenda called the value there. I would expect a buck or two more upside maybe a little more. But people should be looking at other stocks and valuations and that should life some other boats like vlo, fto, wnr
October 26th, 2007 at 2:03 pmThanks A
RIG trying to go positive.
October 26th, 2007 at 2:07 pmZMAN – Is TLM affected by the recent issues in Canada?
October 26th, 2007 at 2:22 pmWell, the SU XS trade is still living up to its name but we have time and I think it will back off a lot more when oil does. And least enough to make for a small gain.
October 26th, 2007 at 2:26 pmram re TLM – oh yes but they’re so cheap they should be somewhat insulated from a decline, plus there’s that takeover rumor out there.
NFX trying a breakout. So cheap and yet so little interest…
October 26th, 2007 at 2:30 pmand there it goes. NFX all time high. I know it looks like chasing but if I were not already in I’d strongly consider it. If you think about it they said great things and the stock is only 4 points above when they said great things on the 2Q conference call.
October 26th, 2007 at 2:32 pmtoday was a beautiful breakout day for BTU. Letting my second half run for a bit.
October 26th, 2007 at 2:40 pmZ…Do you still have the TSO 47.5 Calls?
October 26th, 2007 at 2:47 pmK – yes. Figure the downside is a bit limited. Will sell early next week, probably before earnings on Nov 1.
SU recovery unreal.
October 26th, 2007 at 2:51 pmWebsite Problem Watch:
Host has no idea when it will be fixed. The problem is with Suddenlink level 3 in Dallas. I’ll be posting posts here and on the back and will be commenting over the weekend on the backup site.
October 26th, 2007 at 2:55 pmNFX hahahahahah!!! Have a great weekend gang!!!
October 26th, 2007 at 3:00 pmgreat analysis on NFX…thnx…good weekend to all
October 26th, 2007 at 3:13 pmtime check test
October 26th, 2007 at 10:23 pmz that was fast. time check test
October 26th, 2007 at 10:23 pmok, world , how is the site responding now?
October 26th, 2007 at 10:24 pmthat was extremely slow
October 26th, 2007 at 10:25 pmtime check test 2
October 26th, 2007 at 10:27 pmO.K. @9:50
October 27th, 2007 at 8:50 amMorning Dr D and Thanks! Keep your fingers crossed….
October 27th, 2007 at 8:56 amAlso refresh to see the beginnings of the weekly wrap post.
October 27th, 2007 at 8:57 amSite does not work well in California
October 27th, 2007 at 11:06 amSite A-OK in NJ
October 27th, 2007 at 11:47 amtest
October 27th, 2007 at 2:20 pmwho knows when ptr reports, ceo and sn report Tuesday…
z– site is slow from my Canadian igloo, it was okay for like a few hrs late fri. weird
October 27th, 2007 at 3:27 pmnow its fast, this is weird…
October 27th, 2007 at 3:27 pmlaser light therapy for psoriasis
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July 23rd, 2015 at 1:58 am