09
Oct
Tuesday – Another Downer?
Commodity Watch:
- Crude Oil: Low volume day yesterday as many oil traders were on vacation which combined with a small rebound in the dollar allowed November crude to plummet $2.20 to close just above $79. This morning traders should be back but are again selling the November contract down around $0.50.
- Iran Production Boost. Iran plans to produce a little over 4.0 mm bopd beginning November 1. This is up from levels of around 3.8 mm bopd recently believed to have been produced. Funny thing about that given that Iran was one of the most vocal about not raising production in the September talks yet this will put them over their last known quota level.
- Early Read on the EIA Inventory Report (from MF Global) NOTE: this week's report will be delayed until Thursday.
- Crude up 1.5 million barrels
- Gasoline down 0.35 million barrels
- Distillates down 0.25 million barrels
- Natural Gas: Down $0.23 to $6.85 yesterday as traders tracked oil lower and the tropics offered no sign of support. This morning gas looks flat.
- Rockies Express East (Phase III) Could Be Delayed. The phase of the Rockies Express Pipeline that was scheduled for completion by January 2009 may be delayed by a year due to recent FERC changes to the regulatory timetable for the pipeline. RE is expected to transport 1.8 Bcfgpd from Wyoming and Colorado to Ohio. Z Comment: Not good news for producers like (BBG) who toil under a current glut environment in the Rockies.
- Tropics Watch: Maybe a little something near the Yucatan but even Accuweather has eased off the Storm Gong after bricking the last 10 "oh my gosh this looks like the storm that killed 1200 people in 1957" storm calls it has made in the last three weeks.
- Signs Of Winter Watch: The first noticeable cold front is scheduled to sweep into the eastern half of the U.S. this week.
Natural Gas Imports: Up 0.4 Bcfgpd from the prior week.
- LNG Volumes Rise Slightly. At 1.24 Bcfgd, LNG sendout volumes were up slightly from last week and about 0.2 Bcfgpd above year ago levels.
- Canadian Pipelines Also Up Slightly. Volumes from Canada increased 0.4 Bcfgpd from the prior week to 9.5 Bcfgpd, and about 0.2 Bcfgpd above year ago levels.
Degree Days - Still Pretty Hot
- Cooling Degree Days: 36 for the week ended Oct 6, down from 40 in the prior week. And still well above year ago and "normal" levels. Perhaps more important is the reading on electricity generation from the Edison Electric Institute which recorded a 2.4% increase in generation week to week despite the lower CDD reading.
- Heating Degree Days: None to speak of yet at 18; this is down 17 from last year but less of a knock to gas demand than you'd think as the numbers are a bit squirrelly this time of year.
My Early Quick Thoughts On Gas Storage This Week: 57 Bcf. Knowing this of course in a vacuum is useless until you know the Street's number which will matter and as of yet a number I have not seen this week. My 57 comes from a quick look at the weather that prevailed last week (ever so slightly cooler as seen above) contrasted with the fact that generation actually increased from week ago levels AND the fact that several nukes more nukes were down for unplanned maintenance last week. Countering the apparently increased cooling load demand placed on natural gas with the slight bump in imports gets me to my back of the envelope number which would boost the YoY storage deficit ever so slightly (say about 5 Bcf).
Holdings Watch:
CALLS:
- (COP) - entered NOV $85s for $2.77. Last bid $2.25. Still hold the October $85s.
- (RIG) - entered the OCT $110 for $2.45. Last bid $2.80. This one should be quick. Still hold the October $115 but I'm not adding to them. Although they are not what I'd call a long shot yet, the deepwater drillers have taken a hit of late and I'm not sure as to the timing of a turnaround reaching the upper one-teens before expiration in two weeks.
PUTS: No Action.
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch: B of A initiates coal stocks (ANR) and (ICO) at neutral, (MEE) to buy at Stifel,
Berkshire Cuts Stake In (PTR) Again. Bigger cut this time, down from 6.49% to 5.44%.
Morning all. Love that comment above on Accuweather and the storms Z.
October 9th, 2007 at 8:06 amStrange pop at the open.
Morning Nicky,
Oil surged from down $0.50 to flat in the last fifteen minutes…reverse profit taking?
Due to a family emergency I will be out of pocket in about 10 minutes until 11:30 est, but monitoring any chatter on my blackberry.
October 9th, 2007 at 8:08 am8:51 am EST
Nymex Crude Under $79 On Dollar, Nigeria, Iraq
Dow Jones Newswires
From Market Talk
Nymex Crude Under $79 On Dollar, Nigeria, Iraq
1248 GMT [Dow Jones] Nymex crude is slightly lower Tues, having fallen under $79 in overnight trade. Prices are weighed down by a stronger dollar and signals that Royal Dutch Shell’s (RDSB) Nigerian production is set to increase. Iraq also continues to pump Kirkuk crude to the Ceyhan export terminal in Turkey, which also pushes crude prices down. Nymex crude -50c at $78.52.(EL)
0835 GMT [Dow Jones] Crude futures weaken Tuesday as ICE Brent front-month contract breaks Monday’s low of $76.14/bbl. A London-based trader warns Brent could correct lower and head to $75.50/bbl. Follow-though selling continues after Brent weakened sharply in US trading on news Royal Dutch Shell had lifted a force majeure on its Nigerian Forcados field, signaling supply could increase in coming months from West Africa. ICE Brent November -55c at $76.03/bbl, and Nymex WTI November -39c at $78.63/bbl. (AHE)
October 9th, 2007 at 8:09 amwow now up 40 cents…new war somewhere? HO and NG up too?
well, at least I put a ? after today’s post title, lol.
October 9th, 2007 at 8:11 amSimilar move with nat gas yesterday morning which was reversed in short order.
October 9th, 2007 at 8:19 amNot good for the US dollar and higher oil prices.
October 9th, 2007 at 8:26 amhttp://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/07/10/07/10158647.html
NOAA seem to be responsible for that pop – expecting a mild La Nina this winter (this is not news) which will mean a colder winter.
October 9th, 2007 at 8:35 amTest
October 9th, 2007 at 8:47 amHow are the stocks opening, also can get commodities, ty Z
October 9th, 2007 at 8:48 amZman
October 9th, 2007 at 8:53 amSomething on your site keeps reloading my page. Was not a problem before today.
By the way Good Morning all.
Z – I’m having the same problem (1 item remaining).
October 9th, 2007 at 9:05 amWill fix when I get back to ofc…how r stocks/commodities?
October 9th, 2007 at 9:09 amsame here, clustermaps may the culorit
October 9th, 2007 at 9:09 amculprit
October 9th, 2007 at 9:10 am10:13 am EST
Nymex Crude Higher On Forecast 4Q Oil Demand Rise
By Elizabeth Landau
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK — Crude oil futures edged higher on Tuesday following the release of a U.S. government report that forecast a year-on-year increase in oil demand in the fourth quarter.
The front-month November light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was recently up 81 cents, or 1.03%, at $79.83 a barrel. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange rose 17 cents to $76.75 a barrel.
Fourth-quarter global oil demand is expected to rise by 2.1%, or 1.78 million barrels a day, from a year ago, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. However, this is a smaller increase than was predicted in earlier forecasts. Although the EIA trimmed its projection for the current quarter, it revised up demand for the fourth quarter of 2006.
“At this point it appears that demand will continue to grow until something changes in terms of economic growth around the world,” said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover, an energy risk management firm.
Revised U.S. fourth-quarter oil demand is expected to average 20.91 million barrels a day, up 0.8%, or 160,000 barrels a day, from a year earlier.
The report wasn’t entirely supportive of crude oil prices. For 2008, U.S. oil demand growth is projected to be 0.9%. This is slightly less than the 1% growth rate called for in the month-earlier forecast. The EIA also expects lower prices over the winter.
Front-month November reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, rose 1.18 cents, or 0.6%, to $2.0120 a gallon. November heating oil rose 79 points, or 0.4%, to $2.1675 a gallon.
“The combination of OPEC’s recent announcement of increased supply and lower seasonal crude demand in the United States over the next two months points to crude prices easing slightly over the winter,” the EIA said in its monthly report, called the Short-Term Energy Outlook. This month’s outlook focused on the upcoming U.S. winter heating season.
Crude prices were weighed down by signals of supply increases abroad. Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) said Monday it lifted a force majeure on its Forcados oil terminal in Nigeria, which operated at a capacity of 380,000 barrels a day of oil before militant attacks shut it down in 2006. This signals that the company is set to begin pumping more oil from the area.
Iraq also continues to pump Kirkuk crude to the Ceyhan export terminal in Turkey, where the flow had been suspended for 10 days in September. The export pipeline was also reportedly attacked and damaged on Sept. 18.
Warm weather is also weighing on prices, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst for Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.
“It’s a little hard to get excited about the heating season when we’ve got our air conditioners on,” Flynn said.
Monday’s drop in price seems to follow the recent trend of price drops early in the week, and “the weakness typically makes way for strength later in the week” following inventory data from the Department of Energy, said Eric Wittenauer, an analyst at AG Edwards in St. Louis. Still, he expects prices to trend lower.
—By Elizabeth Landau, Dow Jones Newswires
October 9th, 2007 at 9:19 amdrys to the moon!
October 9th, 2007 at 9:24 amHi All:
October 9th, 2007 at 9:31 amDitto # 11
apbd
Will fix when I get back to the ofc, can some one give me an update on the stocks??? and oil anmd gas… On my blackberry in a car now thjanks oin advance…will fix clusterap prob when I get back
Z
October 9th, 2007 at 9:36 amStocks – Mostly green across the board.
October 9th, 2007 at 9:42 amCOP up .55 to 84.88
October 9th, 2007 at 9:43 amZ,
Most energy stocks popped early then dropped back to opening levels and are now slowly inching back up. OIH up about half a percent.
October 9th, 2007 at 9:43 amTy j and sam
October 9th, 2007 at 9:50 amZ,
TSO leading the refiners up 2.5%, Now sniffing $51. VLO lagging, but positive.
October 9th, 2007 at 9:52 amOil above 80 now
October 9th, 2007 at 9:52 amWTI outperforming products and Brent.
October 9th, 2007 at 10:01 amZ,
All the refiners are running now. TSO still leading up 4%
October 9th, 2007 at 10:02 amh & s still looks good on wti.
October 9th, 2007 at 10:02 amHas the dollar reversal today got anything to do with the crude move I wonder.
October 9th, 2007 at 10:07 amDistillates 50% retracement of the move down comes in at 21912.
61.8% comes in at 22028.
October 9th, 2007 at 10:29 amHow r stocks doing now…Z
October 9th, 2007 at 10:29 amWTI already through the 61.8% retracement level. Now close to the 75% retracement level which is at 80.94.
October 9th, 2007 at 10:34 amZ,
OIH up about 1%. Refiners still showing strength. DRYS up another $7.
October 9th, 2007 at 10:37 amRefiners at HOD…
Thanks for VLO, Z…I’m out of those…
October 9th, 2007 at 10:42 amTy
October 9th, 2007 at 10:44 amZMAN – ESV showing more strength than RIG. IS RIG handicapped by the merger for a while? DRYS = holy cow!
October 9th, 2007 at 10:51 amNFX and CHK at HOD as well…
If we could get CHK over that $37 barrier, that’d be fantastic…Touched $36.96 today…
October 9th, 2007 at 10:57 amThis move up in the energy futures looks ridiculous. short covering…
October 9th, 2007 at 11:12 amGood afternoon. How about that btu. Perhaps flying in sympathy with?? chicom shenhua, and their lousy ipo. !!Chairman Chen Biting professed to be far from thrilled, saying the 90% surge was within expectations and not very satisfactory.!! Must not have satisfied the party policy committee price directives, I guess. Perhaps also in sympathy, chicompec made a humble 5.5% move to the upside. Must have been the news of the Oracle selling. We just can’t get any respect anywhere anymore. This is personal and counterintuitive wish, because I know we should send all our money to the chicoms and all the other emerging markets, however I am happy that someone is investing in Burlington Northern, go WArren!
October 9th, 2007 at 11:13 amN – I think it’s the US dollar causing this rally.
October 9th, 2007 at 11:14 amI’m back…getting my head around these moves.
Wow – COP, TSO, VLO (70 calls way ahead of the game now)
VLO – Q asked yesterday about 72, there ya go
BTU up $2, options starting to move nicely now
DRYS – nice for those still in, the EGLE is still running high too
ESV – frankly could be a lot worse, it’s up less than what it lost yesterday…
RIG – don’t know what’s holding it back; DO is recovering better today
NBR flat also to down a little …nice
CHK – agreed, need about 37.3 for LT breakout.
NFX – nice
October 9th, 2007 at 11:15 amWow, my VLO Oct 70s are in the green!
These were down 70+% last week.
Q.
October 9th, 2007 at 11:28 amI’m gonna buy some more RIG calls.
October 9th, 2007 at 11:30 amHow bout that Lehman upgrade for goog to a mere 735. That makes it significantly more valuable than xom, seeing as to how it already passed cvx. Hoofy is going on the stampede?
October 9th, 2007 at 11:33 am11:44 am EST
Crude Up As EIA Sees Demand Growth, USD Weakens
By ELIZABETH LANDAU
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK — Crude oil futures pushed past $80 Tuesday as a U.S. government report forecasting year-on-year increase in oil demand in the fourth quarter spurred buying and as the dollar weakened.
The front-month November light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was recently up $1.55, or 2%, at $80.57 a barrel. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange rose 94 cents to $77.52 a barrel.
Front-month November reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, rose 2.37 cents, or 1.2%, to $2.0239 a gallon. November heating oil rose 2.04 cents, or 0.9%, to $2.1800 a gallon.
Fourth-quarter global oil demand is expected to rise by 2.1%, or 1.78 million barrels a day, from a year ago, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. However, this is a smaller increase than was predicted in earlier forecasts. Although the EIA trimmed its projection for the current quarter, it revised up demand for the fourth quarter of 2006.
“The fact that EIA came out and said demand would be higher was friendly and positive to pricing,” said Tony Rosado of IAG Energy Brokers in Ft. Lauderdale, Fla.
News that a Hess Corp. (HES) gasoline-making unit in Port Reading, N.J., was shut Monday also boosted prices, Rosado added.
The dollar fell slightly against the euro, meaning oil is cheaper for those buying in other currencies.
“The dollar is once again under a little bit of pressure,” said Mike Fitzpatrick, an analyst with MF Global in New York.
—By Elizabeth Landau, Dow Jones Newswires
October 9th, 2007 at 11:35 amHey Sambone – fun to watch these guys flip flop during the same day!
Q – I’m think about adding November RIGs at this point. If oil falls it looks like it would be one to crack lower yet again. Very strange action there.
ESV – still holding the down channel
October 9th, 2007 at 12:10 pmVLO Nov 67.5 puts…..very high volume..
October 9th, 2007 at 12:11 pmTRADE: Out HALF VLO 70 OCT CALLS for $2.65.
This is one I doubled up when it went the wrong way initially. This half is out up 80% from average cost of $1.18.
October 9th, 2007 at 12:15 pmZ – They are all “Rocket scientist’s”. That’s why they get paid the big bucks!
October 9th, 2007 at 12:22 pmOk, I yanked every bit of problematic seeming code out of the site and it looks now to be a hosting issue. Hopefully fixed later today, sorry for the inconvenience.
I probably sold the VLOs early but I’m not greedy and days ago I thought that might turn into one of my monthly wipe outs.
RJ – they’ve had extremely high volume call action in the 70 octs until today, people are shifting buying into the out month. If I had been around this moringi to watch I’d had been in the Novs by now but oh well.
October 9th, 2007 at 12:31 pmBulls make money, bears make money, hogs get slaughtered…
80% is pretty damn good from where they were a few days ago!
October 9th, 2007 at 12:32 pmHey Bri,
I thought so!
The approach CITI took yesterday on VLO and SUN was one of weak pricing in the ethanol market allowing them, as better positioned users of ethanol for blending, to produce more product, which is a more in depth approach than my simple minded, “um margins are expanding via higher crack spreads and the stocks are too cheap” angle on the story but what the heck, whatever gets the stocks up, right. Since TSO is rallying hard now and they weren’t deemed as much of an ethanol glut beneficiary I stand by my simpleton’s view.
October 9th, 2007 at 12:36 pmSeems from what you are saying that the rally in energy stocks is not being confirmed by the broader market. But then i seem to remember you saying that energy did not rally last week when the market did so maybe just catch up.
October 9th, 2007 at 12:36 pmFOMC minutes will be released at 2pm and I would be suprised if they are’nt a market mover today.
October 9th, 2007 at 12:37 pmERRATA: Typo in my earlier TRADE. Average cost was $1.48, the GAIN was $1.18…still 80% gainer.
October 9th, 2007 at 12:38 pmN – was #52 for me or Brian?
October 9th, 2007 at 12:39 pmGoogle now given back over 1000 points of its early morning spike.
October 9th, 2007 at 12:41 pmN – The way this market is, no matter what the minutes say (Good or bad), this market will go up. “Partying like it’s 1999”.
October 9th, 2007 at 12:41 pmZ – it was just a general comment to everyone really. Broader market looks pretty tired.
October 9th, 2007 at 12:42 pmI don’t disagree Samborne.
October 9th, 2007 at 12:42 pmDid someone paraphrase the leaping baboon? Thanks for the words of wisdom. Speaking of rocket scientists, Big Cat is makins some noises with cbm water reinjection into upper strata reservoirs. Marathon is willing to participate in this science project amazingly – seems they pulled permits on a bunch of wells and Wyoming wants to limit inspections to yearly schedule from quarterly, which Big Cat says is good for them. They don’t have options, however you could get a bunch of their shares for the price of a single contract at the money on anything we usually buy. 🙂 I know that we are going to be giving gas away from now on, however, if gas ever become a valuable commodity again, Cat could become a good one.
October 9th, 2007 at 12:54 pmTSO rumor takeout of SUN… Glad I have my November 47.50s and 50s…besides, the company is still cheap.
It’s probably nothing but the other guys would run hard, especially the little guys if the rumor hangs on or it actually happens.
October 9th, 2007 at 12:55 pmThat should read that SUN is rumored to be looking at acquiring TSO.
October 9th, 2007 at 12:58 pmFed – Loved this line “Inflation risk if dollar keeps falling , Significantly”.
October 9th, 2007 at 1:02 pmIt looks like the financials are looking for a FED interpreter to run in the right direction.
October 9th, 2007 at 1:20 pmVMC is testing the floor at 93, let’s see if it holds.
If it breaks below 90, you guys need to look at this stock.
October 9th, 2007 at 1:24 pmCOP outpacing XOM and CVX today. miracle.
TSO: No way it goes for less than an 11 multiple of next year’s earnings.
ESV still in the down channel
NBR slowly sinking lower on some pretty good volume. Bet that has another buck down in it in a weaker market.
Thanks Q will do, congrats on the WLT, never got it but doing ok with the BTU
October 9th, 2007 at 1:25 pmN – Hmmm, after reading the minutes, I don’t think these bozos have a clue of what’s ahead. Flying in the dark with no instruments, IMO.
October 9th, 2007 at 1:25 pm#61 that one spun my head. then read #62 . lol
October 9th, 2007 at 1:26 pmZ.
JRCC again. What price make your trigger finger itch? 5.80?
It’s pretty volatile in a sell-off. It’s kinda a “Dogs of the Dow”
[Cockroaches of the Coal Scuttle?] pick behind BTU.
This is the same way I got into AEM in August when I wanted a cheaper gold co.
October 9th, 2007 at 1:27 pmQ – still haven’t given it a good luck, it’s thin and they are running it and I’ll catch it on the way back down…maybe.
Really like the ANR story but I missed that one as well as I have been watching it rally from 19.
October 9th, 2007 at 1:30 pm11x forward earnings – that’s outrageous, like anyone knows what their wells will ever be worth one month from now. a real company like bidu prices at 150x!
October 9th, 2007 at 1:32 pmAnother $0.40 on CHK and we are in full on break out mode from a 24 month base.
Wow … look at the breakout on BTU.
Q – VLO over 72, isn’t that your level?
TSO up 5%
October 9th, 2007 at 1:44 pmZMAN or NICKY – Is there a ROT on when a stock goes up away from a particular MA when you feel it’s getting extended (DRYS)?
October 9th, 2007 at 1:45 pmwow, I sold my DRYS two days ago and 15 points lower.
RAM – I don’t know a rule of thumb for that
October 9th, 2007 at 1:47 pmHey,
I was just admiring seeing VLO floating over 72. I sold all but three contracts… in the green by 20% by golly.
I’ll hold the rest in case Sunoco decides they want VLO instead of TSO before next Friday!
DRYS… well I had over a double so no worries.
October 9th, 2007 at 1:56 pmQ – yeah, I very rarely beat myself up over taking a profit.
With the market trading the way it is you can get caught buying a lot of stuff that ran simply to catch it. That game will end badly unless you’re very nimble and it generally ends while you are sleeping …
October 9th, 2007 at 2:00 pmVMC just bouncing and bouncing off 93.
October 9th, 2007 at 2:02 pmJust out of curiousity have you met “Option Dragon”, “Phil”, “Sage”, and “Happy” in person?
It’s a strange aura of celebrity that surrounds these financial blogs.
Q.
October 9th, 2007 at 2:04 pmNo
October 9th, 2007 at 2:05 pmDo you think Joe Bastardi gives autographs at weather conventions?
October 9th, 2007 at 2:06 pm[…] wrote an interesting post today on Comment on Tuesday – Another Downer? by redjackHere’s a quick […]
October 9th, 2007 at 2:23 pm[…] wrote an interesting post today on Comment on Tuesday – Another Downer? by SamboneHere’s a quick […]
October 9th, 2007 at 2:23 pmRam – not as far as I know – you would have to look at other indicators.
Broader market now looks to be heading for 1577 – 1580’s before we see the next correction. Amazing how it can suddenly be perceived as good news that we aren’t going to need a further interest rate cut. Market is ahead of itself methinks.
October 9th, 2007 at 2:29 pmNote that according to Art Cashin volume is extremely light and he commented that the guys at the Fed appear to be admitting that they are not quite sure how things stand!
October 9th, 2007 at 2:36 pmZMAN, NICKY – Thanks.
ZMAN – Are you still pondering about NOV DRYS?
October 9th, 2007 at 2:36 pmRam – yeah but I hate to chase it. Odds are if you do it will make money but if I do it won’t, LOL. Seriously, I’ll wait for some Mo-Mo profit taking here. Also, I need to rerun the numbers vs it’s peers…it’s still cheap but not as cheap and on a bad day in the broader I expect it to take a hit.
October 9th, 2007 at 2:42 pmZ – What’s up with #82?
October 9th, 2007 at 2:47 pmS – Tupp was getting blocked by my spam blocker so I turned it off. These kind of guys then get in.
October 9th, 2007 at 2:48 pmI may regret it but I’m holding all my TSO calls through tomorrow and probably half of them longer.
October 9th, 2007 at 2:50 pmCHK hit 37
October 9th, 2007 at 2:51 pmZ, RE # 89 ALL THE BEST, BUT ISN’T THE PRUDENT MOVE TO SELL HALF NOW CONSIDERING THE COST BASIS? JUST TRYING TO DEVELOP AND LEARN SOUND SELLING STRATERGIES.
October 9th, 2007 at 2:58 pmScoop – that would be the most prudent course if they were October’s for sure. It’s more of a touch and feel thing but I was just looking at them and the fundamentals for which I just bought them are still showing improvement. I may get nipped on it but I like the way they are closing near HOD. I’ll have a crack spread chart with WC margins up in the morning post but its improvement accelerated las tweek. Its just a judgement call on my part and maybe not a good one. Still, they are Novies
October 9th, 2007 at 3:02 pmZ, STUPID ME. I THOUGHT THEY WERE OCT.’S
October 9th, 2007 at 3:06 pmCAN YOU ADDRESS SELLING STRATERGY FOR RIG
OCT.$110.
Scoop – Re RIG – Those are Octobers and I had hoped for a better day today. In a word, quickly. In a phrase: at a moment’s notice.
Simply put I think they should be higher. I’m obviously missing something here. Maybe it’s the Jackups and semisubs markets affecting the future TransGlobal or whatever it is they will call it. I think at some point something clicks and this thing runs. The problem is that may be anytime during the 4Q. So you may see me dump the 115 losers on one more slightly positive day along with the 110 and take something in a December just so I don’t have to sweat it. Same goes for the ESV on the put side.
October 9th, 2007 at 3:10 pmThe coal mystery is solved: Stifel upgraded Massy today!
October 9th, 2007 at 3:13 pmZ- thanks. Novies?
October 9th, 2007 at 3:13 pmCal – that was in the analyst watch, plus MEE is the most lawsuit encumbered coal out there and will eventually pay dearly for it…but that’s just my opinion…I could be wrong.
Novies = novembers
October 9th, 2007 at 3:14 pmwow im an idiot, bought drys 120’s in the am and got impatient and sold at 1:30, and could have reaped another 150% (THE CONTRACT WAS UP 400% ON THE DAY!!!)
October 9th, 2007 at 3:25 pmT – profits like that are a problem to have!
October 9th, 2007 at 3:26 pmT – I detest mo-mo stocks. Just when you convince yourself it’s not really 1999 and that it just feels like 1999 then it becomes 1999. At least in the case of this particular little beasty, it’s dirt cheap. Of course, that’s based on dry bulk shipping rates that look, well, like 1999.
October 9th, 2007 at 3:28 pmhhahaha
the gap today looked like an exhaustion gap, ie pros unloading (remember my call on the measured gap @85 Z?, and that usually measures half way… well this looks picture perfect to me- i wouldent be surprised if we were back 10% the there way! and ill be there with put… you with me Z>?
October 9th, 2007 at 3:28 pmwhere do you get your consensus earnings info or equities? first call? i wen to the site and cant get anything….
October 9th, 2007 at 3:29 pmHi T-Tupp – my nerves now how to live through another Grand Prix in two weeks -what a race for Hamilton to beach it on!!!!!
October 9th, 2007 at 3:39 pmyes, first call…I’ve got to step out who do you need and I’ll put in a comment in a bit?
October 9th, 2007 at 3:39 pmcan i look up things on my own or do you need a subscription?
October 9th, 2007 at 4:56 pmI think you can get eps from several sources for free including yahoo finance.
I have a subscription to First Call for all the details and also CFPS, EBITDA etc…
October 9th, 2007 at 4:58 pmis it expensive/ worth it?
October 9th, 2007 at 5:48 pm$300 to $1000 depending on the level of detail for a non-institutional license
October 9th, 2007 at 5:51 pmTupp – I had to turn the spam filter back on…can’t be selling Paris Hilton tapes on here. I will have a new one by the weekend. If it blocks you it will at least give you a chance to prove you are a human by entering those groovy letters.
October 9th, 2007 at 6:40 pmIs anybody still around? Need to know if the site is constantly refreshing from your end. Thanks.
October 9th, 2007 at 6:49 pmyep
October 9th, 2007 at 6:53 pmis it still auto refreshing for you or does it stop?
October 9th, 2007 at 6:53 pmAutomatic vs. manual refresh?
October 9th, 2007 at 7:01 pmSome people were having a problem with the site just sitting there and constantly spinning or refreshing by itself. I think I got it fixed but wanted to see if it was still hour glassing or the like for anyone out there.
October 9th, 2007 at 7:04 pmOh. It works fine.
October 9th, 2007 at 7:06 pmThanks Ram
October 9th, 2007 at 7:06 pmi had to refresh this time. seems that it was working on auto before
October 9th, 2007 at 7:09 pmYeah, it was working on auto by accident which eats memory and is annoying. Thanks for the help.
October 9th, 2007 at 7:10 pmZMAN – Do you see where CVX says their 3rd qtr will be down because of poor refining margins?
October 9th, 2007 at 7:42 pmIntuitively, it makes sense that the refiners margins are less. I pay less for gasoline now and the raw material was at its highest in the 3rd qtr.
October 9th, 2007 at 7:47 pmRAM – Not until you pointed it out. They look pretty bad vs say COP who said much the same thing the other day. Should not be a shock but you can see the stock got dinged after the close. They also had lower throughput on top of lower margins and their margins truly did stink based on July/Aug.; again its in the rear view mirror but it will likely whack them, XOM and the refining group at least in the morning. May or may not effect the independents who have yet to “warn”.
October 9th, 2007 at 7:47 pmZ- Pete Najarian mentioned call volume in BHI NOV.100 C’S 19,000 contracts &
October 9th, 2007 at 8:02 pmHAL NOV. $42.50C’S 17,000 contracts.
Any thoughts?
ZMAN – Can you always presume it is “smart” money?
October 9th, 2007 at 8:08 pmScoop –
HAL deserves a higher multiple but that would be a heck of a run. Maybe it’s some Saudi Prince playing with silly money now that HAL is in the region.
BHI could easily warn. Maybe someone thinks it gets bought but the line of work it’s in puts in prime territory for a warning in the current environment.
RAM – given the size, they certainly think they know something. On the HAL I saw one trade over 1000 contracts and the rest looked like retail, 1 to 10 to 100 at a time. Could be a hedgie trying to start a rumor …doesn’t cost a lot $7,000 in this case and then hit the message board and get retail on board and then try to really hit the stock the next day with some early orders. Cramer could probably advise better on this, LOL.
October 9th, 2007 at 8:24 pmThanks and thanks.
October 9th, 2007 at 8:28 pmZ- that’s alot of retail contracts(16,000) considering there were 7100 outstanding prior to today’s action; don’t you think?
October 9th, 2007 at 8:33 pmScoop-
Yes but I’m not saying the early stuff was, it looked like there was a lot of follow on stuff and it’s a 70 cent well OOTM contract which people seem to enjoy.
I think its a rumor spreading hedge and I don’t know how much they took followed by lemmings or luckies (take your pick depending on what happens). Lots of people buy stocks based on option activity so if you can jack that and then get it noticed by a guy like Pete then you will have more stock buyers tomorrow.
If they really think the stock is going to go $4 points higher (breakeven plus a nice return) you’d be better off buying a deep in the money option (purchasing disproportionately fewer contracts to get the leverage you want). Especially after a run like the one it’s just had.
I’ll put the HAL Nov 37.50 calls on the watch board along with the 42.50s and we’ll see who’s better off in three weeks. All I’m saying is that it’s extremely risky that close ahead when you have to get another 10% move on the common on top of the 22% straight up move from the August 20 low.
You know I like the stock and I’ve been out since around 37 (just before September expiry) and am waiting on a pull back. I’m just saying it smells funny to me. If someone is making bigger bets on calls prior to a deal that’s different deal although there are some pretty smart people who look for patterns in that kind of thing and soon or later those call buyers will be singing like Martha S.
October 9th, 2007 at 8:46 pmZ- Thank you very much for the explanation and education.
October 9th, 2007 at 9:00 pmS – now that you’ve said that I’m sure it will be taken out in the morning! LOL!
October 9th, 2007 at 9:02 pmZMAN, RE RIG OCT 110 Make any sense to roll over to NOV. 115.?
October 9th, 2007 at 9:16 pmDefinitely but I’m for a solid gain off the 110 level. I may go ahead and add the Nov 115 and let the 110 run (if it can) a little more before exit. Only had it a day now.
October 10th, 2007 at 12:22 amZ_ Wed. Wall St. Journal article states the catalyst for buying activity in BHI & HAL might be reports that Venezuela’s
October 10th, 2007 at 5:57 amstate oil co =PdVSA might be in talks with these or other co’s to form a joint ventures due to a global shortage of rigs.
The article can be found on page C5.
I think someone had today’s paper yesterday
Scoop – that’s a good thought and I have seen a couple of stories about PDVsa increasing the ranks over the last two weeks. I wouldn’t want to work for them but HAL may not care and it is less risky than it would be if you had reserves under their ground.
October 10th, 2007 at 7:44 am