Weekly Wrap – Week Ended 09/28/07 (in progress)



CFTC: Treading water on the net count as both longs and shorts paired back their position last week (down 13% and 7% respectively). This still represents the largest net short count as this point in the season (heading into winter in my records)


RIGS: The Natural Gas Rig Count Continues To Slip. After hitting a 20+ year high just four weeks ago the U.S. natural gas rig count is now 5% off those levels. 


Tropics Watch ~ Weekend Edition: TD Karen nearing death. Expected to be a tropical wave later  Saturday. Tropical Storm Melissa has formed off the coast of Africa and is headed to the northwest on track for the eastern seaboard in about two week's time.

Holdings Watch:

CALL: Mostly selling yesterday

  • (APA) -  Out APA October $80 calls for $11.30. 3 weeks, 335%. Turned out to be a timely trade as Nicky kept calling for oil to falter, I said enough for me on these, and then crude decided to reverse in the afternoon, ending $2 below it's high on the day and turning a green energy screen almost uniformly red.
  • (OII)  - Out Oct $75 CALLs at $3.50, up 108% in 11 days. I'll revisit this one on the long side in coming days.
  • (BTU) - Entered the November $50 calls for $2.25, unfortunately right before crude started to crack (last bid $1.80). The coals have been making a minor comeback in recent weeks as natural gas has found a bottom. I gave myself a little more with buying November's because gas can be squirrelly this time of year but a combination of fundamental and media mania events should give it a boost. Coal prices trade in line with gas and the coals should continue to do well from a fundamental demand standpoint.

Odds & Ends:

Statistics Watch: 12 out of the last 17 Octobers have been good to investors. This was pointed out by one my favorite blogger/traders on the globe, Charles Kirk of The Kirk Report

to be continued ...

Have a great weekend! 

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