Tuesday Night Oil Preview Public Post

Oil Inventory Report Expectations (from the Bloomberg survey)


Comments by Z:

  • Crude - The draw could be bigger than expected again as the Houston Ship Channel was shut towards the end of the week potentially shaving tanker imports. Given that the current sentiment for oil seems to have shifted from "we have enough" to "we're all going to freeze to death" at the touch of the Goldman Spike Switch I'd say anything bigger than the 2 mm expected draw will be used as reason to make a run on $85.   
  • Gasoline - I think gasoline will be a bigger than expected draw this week as imports and production should both have dropped while demand might be off but less so. The Street is expecting utilization of 90%, down from 90.5%. They missed by a mile last week (down 1.6% versus expectations of drop of only 0.1%). The shut down of 5% of U.S. refining capacity for 2 days during the reporting period (Humberto) could move this number and production lower than expected. 
  • Distillates - 1.4? Sure, that's just slightly beneath the four week average build. There's no real demand right now for heating oil and there shouldn't be much of a shift in other distillate uses. It may fall slightly lower for the same reasons as gasoline but it's less dependent on imports.
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