Tuesday Night Public Post

Oil Inventory Report (from the Dow Jones Survey)



  • Oil - another big draw which if it comes to fruition would put us in YoY deficit land for the first time in ages. I’m less sure of this big draw down being achieved this time around as I was on the last two occasions. Dean impacts should be waning so imports should tick back up. This sets the bar pretty high for an oil bearish number. 
  • Gasoline -  though a small draw is expected I would be surprised to see a larger one and will be watching the West Coast for another drop in production and stocks which would tell me to add to my (TSO) call position.  
  • Distillate - this looks a lot like last week’s number meaning those surveyed are just assuming everything stayed the same. 

Food For Thought Watch: Buy Firewood and Blankets.


EIA Headline Watch: U.S. Winter Retail Heating Oil Prices Seen 12% Higher 2007 vs 2006. EIA said retail HO will average $0.30 higher at $2.78 per gallon for the October to March heating season. EIA attributed the expectation of higher prices to a combination of higher crude prices and lower distillate inventories than last year. Comment: I hate to say I told …

We added some bigger cap names on the long side during last Friday's big slide, both gassy and oily and so far so good. 

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