20
May

T.G.I.F.

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Market Sentiment Watch:  In today's post please find the natural gas storage review (YoY and 5 Year average comps continue to contract as we have injected less gas in storage during the injection season to date than in any of the years of the past decade - see new chart D1 in the slide deck), a pro forma cheat sheet for the proposed RRC MRD merger, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get existing home sales at 10 am EST (F = 5.41 mm, last read was 5.33 mm). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - RRC / MRD Pro Forma
  5. Odds & Ends

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19
May

Thursday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: WMT delivers a rare bit of retail market relief but otherwise it appears to be back to somewhat nervous market conditions as the markets weighs potential Fed action next month.  In today's post please find the oil inventory review: a) unexpected crude build (and hard to explain on an increase in refiner demand, flat week to week imports, and lower production), b) record gasoline demand for this week of the year and almost all time record demand, c) yielding a larger than expected drop in gasoline stocks as retreating imports more than offset a rise in gasoline production, d) record distillate demand for this week of the year (a sentence we have not written in a long time) with U.S. stock falling out of record high territory, and e) certainly not least, a return to the down 30,000 bopd weekly drop in Lower 48 oil production we are looking for at this point in the cycle (the prior week's 80,000 bop drop was a catch up number), the natural gas storage preview, a BCEI Wrap and Cheat, comments on the HK pre-packaged Chapter 11 plan, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Jobless Claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 270,000, last read ws 294,000),
  • We get Philly Fed at 8:30 am EST (F = 3.0, last read was -1.6),
  • We get the Chicago Fed national activity index at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was -0.44)
  • We get Leading Indicators at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.2%)

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - BCEI Wrap and Cheat, HK  
  5. Odds & Ends

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18
May

Wednesday Morning – SJT, VNOM

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Market Sentiment Watch: Market to focus on the monthly parsing of the Fed minutes for clues as to Fed's next move. Good luck with that. In today's post please find the oil inventory preview, comments on gassy underfunded yield play SJT and oily well funded yield play VNOM, CLR, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the FOMC minutes at 2 pm EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - SJT, VNOM, CLR
  4. Odds & Ends

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17
May

Tuesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Another busy day on the economic data front. In energyland, our sense is we're a period of sideways trading and consolidation of recent gains is in order near term. We continue to wrap up end of quarter thoughts and reports in advance of what is likely to be a fairly typical bit of early summer doldrums type trading.   In today's post please find comments on EPE, PDCE, RICE, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get CPI at 8:30 am EST (Core forecast = 0.2%, last read 0.1%; headline forecast = 0.3%, last read 0.1%),
  • We get Housing Starts at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.13 mm, last read 1.089 mm), 
  • We get Building Permits at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 1.076 mm), 
  • We get Industrial Production at 9:15 am EST (F = 0.3%, last read was -0.6%), 
  • We get Capacity Utilization at 9:15 am EST (F = 75.1%, last read was 74.8%). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today –  EPE, PDCE, RICE
  4. Odds & Ends

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16
May

Monday Morning – RRC Buys MRD

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Market Sentiment Watch: A return to more important economic data began at the end of last week with retail sales and continues this week, all week long. In energyland, things grow quieter with the 1Q16 reporting season concluded and most of the big monthly reports from OPEC, IEA and EIA out of the way for the next two weeks (we do get the Drilling Productivity report from EIA today).  In today's post please find The Week That Was, comments on the RRC acquisition of MRD (we own both - MRD team, you will be missed, RRC team - you got a sweet deal), and a few other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Empire State at 8:30 am EST (F = 5.8, last read was 9.6),
  • We get the Home Builders' index at 10 am EST (F = 58, last read was 58). 
  • We get the EIA Drilling Productivity sometime today. 

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 5/17: CPI, housing starts, building permits, industrial production, capacity utilization, 
  • Wednesday 5/18: FOMC minutes, 
  • Thursday 5/19: Jobless claims, Philly Fed, Chicago Fed, Leading Indicators, 
  • Friday 5/20: Existing home sales.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - RRC buys MRD
  5. Odds & Ends

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