25
Jul

Wrap – Week Ended 7/24/15

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Questions and comments under the Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. Have a question about the site? Email zman@zmansenergybrain.com.

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24
Jul

Friday Morning – COG

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Market Sentiment Watch: Same story different day. Selloff over done in our view but doesn't mean it stops now. We're closer to adding short term positions and generally not looking to punt long held positions now. Valuations are expected to look stretched after a price decline but after the recent re-drop, more names look historically cheap with free acreage. In today's post please find the natural gas inventory slide show (essentially in line, see notes in the Commodity Watch section), comments on the COG quarter (in line, no change in guidance, still curtailing), and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • China Flash PMI came in at 48.2, below last month's 49.4 and estimate of 49.7.  I have t ask if everyone is so negative on China why was the forecast looking for an up?
  • We new home sales at 10 am EST (F = 550,000, last read was 546,000)

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - COG,
  5. Odds & Ends

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23
Jul

Thursday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Baby and bathwater action continues in the group against he backdrop of renewed, strengthened negativity for oil prices in the near and ongoing apathy for natural gas.   In today's post please find the natural gas inventory preview, the oil inventory review (pretty neutral - build due to imports, production held flat after last week's drop but record refiner demand for crude and continued strong finished product demand), a number of comments on names of interest (please especially see the section on CLB's macro thoughts including the down 500,000 bopd from peak April levels they see for U.S. crude production), and some other odds and ends.

 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 284,000, last read was 281,000),
  • We get Chicago Fed at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was -0.17), 
  • We get Leading Indicators at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was +0.7%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch - with natural gas storage preview
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - Earnings briefs (OII, CLB, FTK), BCEI
  5. Odds & Ends

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22
Jul

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Group nervously eyeing the concept of traction but we see some fairly obvious forced selling in the market in some names (just margin calls or fund collapse it's hard to say).  Bigger than usual day for weekly data (see comments in the Commodity Watch section below). In today's post please find the Catalyst List Update Part 6 and some other odds and ends.

Interesting Reading Watch: Energy loans story, worth reading all the way to the end. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the FHFA home price index at 9 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.3%), 
  • We get existing home sales at 10 am EST (F = 5.42 mm, last read was 5.35 mm)

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - Catalyst List Part 6
  4. Odds & Ends

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21
Jul

Tuesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Another day without economic data. Yesterday the E&P group continued the prior week's sell off on no really move in the commodities (XOP off a whopping 3.7% in a day, WTI off 1.5%).  Our sense is that the recent move is well over done but we think it's going to take lower U.S. production and some additional non bearish news on the supply front to wake this market up. So we are hand sitting until things slow down and logic steps in,  doing prep work for the approach of the heart of 2Q15 energy earnings season.  We found this interview with Pira more than a bit interesting. In today's post please find the Catalyst List Update Part 5 and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • No economic data release scheduled. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – Catalyst List Update Part V, PVA, WPX
  4. Odds & Ends

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