25
Jan

Wrap – Week Ended 1/23/15

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Questions and comments under the Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. 

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23
Jan

T.G.I.F.

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Market Sentiment Watch: In energy land, nervousness continues as oil and the group seek a bottom. Big news of the last 24 hours will focus on the power transition in Saudi Arabia but we don't expect a near term oil policy shift as a result of the passing of King Abdullah. Inventories yesterday cast a shadow over oil prices again however the move up in crude stocks should not be unexpected and should be largely priced into the strip at this point (it's obvious that when utilization falls seasonally and production holds at cycle highs that you are going to see some large builds) and this has been the thinking for some time now and as such, we should be closer to the end phase of a sell the expectation, buy the reality process. Regardless, volatility is to be the rule, not the exception near term. In today's post please find the natural gas inventory slide show (slightly smaller than expected draw but still welcome in size, next week's will be smaller), the oil inventory review (big crude build on weak utilization that was impacted by unplanned outages and despite a record low for the week for imports) and our Lame Dance Partners List (part 1). 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get the Chicago Fed index at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.48), 
  • We get Existing Home Sales at 10 am EST (F = 5.08 mm, last read was 4.93 mm),
  • We get Leading Indicators at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.6%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Oil Inventory Review
  5. Stuff We Care About Today - Lame Dance Partners List - Part I
  6. Odds & Ends

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22
Jan

Thursday Morning – Dualing Natural Gas and Oil Inventory Reports

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Market Sentiment Watch: All eyes on likely QE for the ECB.  Slight change in tone in the energy space (positive) as group continues to saw sideways and a number of our names fill or begin efforts to fill the November OPEC gap.  Increased news flow is expected. In today's post please find previews for the natural gas and oil inventory reports, the Catalyst List Part V update, brief comments on XCO, and several other odds and ends (primarily at the bottom of Stuff section). 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F= 298,000, last read was 316,000), 
  • We get FHFA home prices at 9 am (no forecast, last read was +4.5% YoY)

 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - Catalyst List Part V, XCO
  4. Odds & Ends

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21
Jan

Wednesday Morning – Budgets Update

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Market Sentiment Watch: Nervous broad and energy market conditions continue. In today's post please find an updated version of our look at budgets so far for 2015  - mostly lower, some revised lower more than once already, and more of that to come and a big wedge of names with no 2015 guidance yet that normally would have spilled the program beans by now.  Most budgets are going into "hold flat" mode and we mean the big boys of E&P too. Also in today's post please find comments on AR's updated 2015 guidance.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Housing Starts at 10 am EST (F = 1.04 mm, last read was 1.03 mm).  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – ZLT+ Capex 2015 Update, AR, SWN
  4. Odds & Ends

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20
Jan

Tuesday Morning – HAL, BCEI, REXX, RSPP, MTDR

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Market Sentiment Watch: Nervous energy markets continue. As usual, we have another set of group price and rating reductions out of the sellside to start this holiday shortened week. We've also got increased news flow out of the E&P group with several names updating operations and making other moves this morning.  While Service name 4Q earnings reports are starting to trickle out we're still about a month away from the early in the season names giving their 4Q reports (E&Ps take about an extra month at year end due to reserves calculations) and as such we continue to expect several more names to release their latest thoughts on 2015 spending and volume guidance (normally all but a few would be out by now but our lose sketch of the situation shows just under half have guided officially at this point.  In today's post please find a snap shot of plummeting rig counts in total and by key basin, comments on BCEI's budget  (another move to "hold flat" as expected (well, by us at least), comments on the HAL quarter, The Week That Was, a subscriber mailbag watch, comments on REXX (another solid update), MTDR (acquired more Delaware acreage), RSPP (guides to a little better than 4Q14 hold flat for 2015), and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the Home Builders' Index at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 57). 

The Week Ahead:

  • Wednesday 1/21: Housing starts, 
  • Thursday 1/22: Jobless claims, FHFA home prices, Markit Flash PMI,
  • Friday 1/23: Chicago Fed, Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - Subscriber Mailbag, BCEI, HAL, MTDR,  REXX, RSPP
  5. Odds & Ends

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