19
Oct

Wrap – Week Ended 10/17/14

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Questions / comments under the wrap table will be addressed in the Monday Post. 

Holdings Watch:

If you have questions about the site please email them to zman@zmansenergybrain.com

wrap 101714


17
Oct

T.G.I.F.

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Market Sentiment Watch: Two days do not a new trend make.  However, with that said we say, "Thank You Sir, May I Have Another !?!?!"  In today's post please find the natural gas inventory slide show (essentially in line as we continue to approach an expected peak of 3.6 Tcf), the oil inventory review (bigger than expected crude build but fairly predictable given the season), and comments on the SLB quarter (who made the point of saying they don't see much change in their business due to the recent drop in oil prices. 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get Housing Starts at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.015 mm, last read was 0.956 mm), 
  • Janet Yellen speaks at 8:30 am EST, 
  • We get Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 am EST (F = 83.5 mm, last read was 84.6 mm)

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Oil Inventory Review 
  5. Stuff We Care About Today – SLB
  6. Odds & Ends

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16
Oct

Thursday Morning – SWN Takes A Big Bite

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Market Sentiment Watch: Nervous market conditions persist.  In today's post please find the oil and natural gas weekly inventory previews (we get both today due to the Columbus Day holiday), a PVA leverage stress test piece, and comments on the once in a company lifetime sized Utica/Marcellus buy by SWN. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 289,000, last week was 287,000),
  • We get Industrial Production at 9:15 am EST (F = 0.4%, last read was -0.1%), 
  • We get Capacity Utilization at 9:15 am EST (F = 79%, last read was 78.8%), 
  • We get the Home Builders' index at 10 am EST (F = 59, flat with last read), 
  • We get Philly Fed at 10 am EST (F = 19.5, last read was 22.5)

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – Stress Test ~ PVA, SWN
  5. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to

Continue Reading »


15
Oct

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Extreme energy group nervousness continues. In energy land yesterday, we saw more of what we have come to expect from October as fairly indiscriminate selling in the E&P and Oil Service spaces continued as oil retreated further on apparent OPEC complacence. We continue to largely sit on our hands awaiting the sideways trade that will come in both the commodity and the groups. When that occurs we will add to favorite names first (for instance, BCEI, which held up remarkably well through quarter end, has fallen twice as far as we expected once the base in the upper $50s broke under group pressure. It's off 40% in two weeks which puts it into bargain basement territory on a number of metrics. But there are many of these in the portfolio and we largely plan to continue to wait until others are done or mostly done vomiting up their shares.   In today's post please find the early oil inventory preview (we don't get the EIA's weekly report until tomorrow due to Columbus Day), comments on HK's leverage sensitivity, comments on an AR operations update, comments on a MTDR operations update, and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Retail Sales at 8:30 am EST (headline forecast = -0.2%, last read +0.6%; ex autos forecast = +0.4%, last read +0.3%),
  • We PPI at 8:30 am EST (F = +0.1%, last read 0.0%),
  • We get Empire State Index at 8:30 am EST (F = 21, last read 27.5), 
  • We get Business Inventories at 10 am EST (F = +0.4%, last read +0.4%),
  • We get the Beige Book at 2 pm EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – Stress Test – HK, AR, MTDR
  5. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to

Continue Reading »


14
Oct

Tuesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Another day without real economic data. In energyland the groups remain in Full Metal Panic mode and we continue to see the move as well over done in all names we own. News flow out of the groups remain at a minimum in front of the 3Q14 reporting period.  In today's post please find some comments on gassy holdings that have been beat down with the move off in oily names. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the Federal Budget at 2 pm EST (no forecast, last read +$75 B)

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – – Gassy Thoughts ~ Guilt by Association (AR, COG, MRD, REXX, RICE, RRC, SWN, WPX), —–
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to …

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