28
Aug

T.G.I.F.

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Market Sentiment Watch: Volatility in equity markets has spilled over into the commodities. We'd like to see the sideways trade start to form up.  In today's post please find the natural gas inventory slide show (bigger than expected injection), comments on CLR and HK, and several other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch: 

  • Personal Income came in at 0.4% vs a forecast of 0.5% and a prior reading of 0.4%, 
  • Consumer Spending came in at 0.3% vs a forecast of 0.4% a prior reading of 0.2%, 
  • Core Inflation came in at 0.2% vs a forecast of 0.1% and a prior reading of 0.1%, 
  • We get Consumer Sentiment at 10 am EST (F 93.5, last read 92.9).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review:
  4. Stuff - CLR, HK
  5. Odds & Ends

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27
Aug

Thursday Morning – CXO

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Market Sentiment Watch: Volatility.  2Q GDP revision will rekindle fears of a Fed move sooner rather than later.   In today's post please find the natural gas inventory preview, the oil inventory review (unexpected and large crude draw due to a sharp drop in imports but builds in products as demand tips seasonally for gasoline before one last travel inspired bump and before distillate comes off the lows:  gasoline stocks remain in line with averages for time of year, while distillate levels remain over-stored, expect both to come off soon).  U.S. crude production continues to trend as expected (no change in the weekly this week but the 15 weeks since peak are right on track - see Stuff section comments in addition to the crude inventory review below).  Bears remain squarely focused on storage levels and as such are willing to ignoring the ongoing improving balancing act of imports (down 580,000 bopd YTD), refiner throughput (up 350,000 bopd YTD), and production (at least 360,000 bopd off the April peak and falling).  Also in the post, please find comments on CXO, and some other odds and ends.

 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • Jobless Claims came in at 271,000 vs a forecast270,000 and last week's reading of 277,000,
  • The 2Q15 GDP revision came in at 3.7% vs a forecast of 3.3%, last read was 2.3%,
  • We get Pending Home Sales at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was -1.8%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch - with natural gas storage preview
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - CXO
  5. Odds & Ends

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26
Aug

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Market remains in extreme fear mode on edge as China holds center stage.   In today's post please find our shopping list of names we want to add or add to in the ZLT this fall. Timing on that is September/October but we continue to be patient (we've only done two ZLT adds since February with most of our activity focused on shorter term and smaller stuff as we watch and wait for oil markets to stabilize). Please also find brief comments on the SLB/CAM merger (CC at 8:30 am EST) and some other odds and ends.  

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Durable Goods at 8:30 am EST (F = -0.6%, last read was 3.4%)

 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil inventory preview
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - Shopping List, SLB/CAM
  4. Odds & Ends

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25
Aug

Tuesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: China eases and lowers bank reserve requirements.  We continue to avoid the temptation of trying to bottom fish for long term adds at this point. News flow from E&P land remains quiet as usual for this time of year. In today's post please find a quick requested look at LINE and some other odds and ends.  In tomorrow's post we'll have our near term shopping list of names (you've heard about them all before so this are quick bullets as to why) and again, we're not in a rush to add even for long term thinking. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Case-Shiller home prices at 9 am EST (no forecast, last read was -0.2%),
  • We get FHFA home prices at 9 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.4%), 
  • We get New Home Sales at 10 am EST (F = 513,000, last read was 482,000), 
  • We get Consumer Confidence at 10 am EST (F = 93.7, last read was 90.9). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – LINE, SYRG
  4. Odds & Ends

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24
Aug

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch:  We long for the normal summer doldrums. Broad market is in panic mode over China and general growth fears about a slowing globe as Fed looks still likely to raise rates. Energyland is in panic mode as oil prices melt to fresh six plus year lows while Saudi, not exactly playing Nero, watches from aloft it's low cost structure. Much of the rest of OPEC are getting more than nervous.  Our most diversified among E&Ps, primary account, the ZLT D is down 30% YTD vs 26% drops for the XNG and XOP (we don't have refiners to buoy us and have a few more debt risky name in our mix). We see oil and the group as overdone to the downside, still ignoring positives and moving lower on any headline negatives even if they are reversed the next week.  In today's post please find The Week That Was (including oil and natural price deck revisions) and a few other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Chicago Fed activity index at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.08)

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 8/25: Case-Shiller home prices, FHFA house prices, new home sales, consumer confidence,
  • Wednesday 8/26: Durable goods, 
  • Thursday 8/27: Jobless claims, GDP, Pending home sales,
  • Friday 8/28: Personal income, consumer spending, core inflation, consumer sentiment. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »

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