13
Oct

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: No economic data today or tomorrow from the States but China surprised to the upside last night with a 15.3% YoY gain for exports (and the second highest level on record for oil imports). In energy land, all eyes remain on oil which is focused squarely on the sound bites coming out of OPEC ministers who for the most part are taking the approach that they are not concerned about falling oil prices.  Sure they're not. Our sense is that the E&P and Service beat downs are now well overdone even if oil prices test $80 (not necessarily something that's in the cards in our view). Analysts are in the process of marking down oil prices for the rest of this year and next and taking down targets commensurately but with the group drop we've already seen the reductions leave the names largely as Buys. At the end of the week, we get the first of the Oil Service Company reports from SLB. In today's post please find The Week That Was (not a lot of news last week) and a number of questions addressed in the Subscriber Mailbag watch. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • Columbus Day – no economic releases scheduled, equity markets open. 

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 10/14: No economic releases scheduled. 
  • Wednesday 10/15:  Retail sales, PPI, Empire State, Business Inventories, Beige Book, 
  • Thursday 10/16: Jobless claims, industrial production, capacity utilization, home builders' index, Philly Fed, 
  • Friday 10/17: Housing Starts, Consumer Sentiment. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – Subscriber Mailbag
  5. Odds & Ends

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11
Oct

Wrap – Week Ended 10/10/14

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The wrap table will be out by 1 pm EST Sunday (10/12/14)

All questions under the Wrap will be addressed in the Subscriber Mailbag section of the Monday post

Some food for thought:

The Blotter is updated.  We largely continue to sit on our hands awaiting cooler head re-entry for both the E&P and Service sectors and made our second add to the ZLT G portfolios of October on Friday.  We also did our first ZMT trade in over 4 months on Friday with a high risk bottom fish in HAL.   Look for us to step up additions soon.  

How to ZEB

If you have questions about Zman's Energy Brain please send them to zman@zmansenergybrain.com

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10
Oct

Friday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Another light day on the economic data front.  Energy markets remains in baby and bath water land. OPEC ministers remain fairly mute. We expect an orchestrated response to prices in late November. Please see today's comments on the latest OPEC monthly in the Commodities Watch section.  Today the group's latest monthly piece was released (see Commodity Watch section for thoughts).  In today's post please find the natural gas inventory slide show (basically in line, we still see 3.6 Tcf as the likely seasonal top – see graphs below), some comments on sand names, on EBITDA sensitivity, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get the Import Price Index at 8:30 am EST (F = -0.7%, last read was -0.9%),
  • We get the Federal Budget at 2 pm EST (no forecast given the voodoo nature of the federal budget, last read was +$75 B)

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – Sand, EBITDA sensitivity preview
  5. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to Continue Reading »


09
Oct

Thursday Morning – Oil Review and Natural Gas Preview

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Market Sentiment Watch: AA kicked off the official start of 3Q14 earnings season last night. Energy earnings will start at the end of next week with the first of the Service names.   In today's post please find the oil inventory review (bearish but not unexpectedly so as the "strong production meets maintenance season" effect is playing out a bit more calmly than expected and inventories are fine), the natural gas inventory preview (expecting another record), another quick update on a big name in the ZLT that may get bigger for us soon as we prepare to add to quality names that have been hit by general baby and bath water action and some other odds and ends.  Please see yesterday's post for market/group commentary as nothing has changed from then. As stated at the end of last month, I did not expect a light switch to be flipped back into the "on" position for the group.  It certainly was not. I didn't expect it to be torn off the wall either. Awaiting the sideways trade and prepared to add to names (long list of names that are overdone to the down side) and we will continue to walk through our names post drop and pre potential add (see comments in Holdings Watch). 

 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get Jobless Claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 294,000, last read was 287,000),
  • We get wholesale inventories at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was +0.1%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Natural Gas Inventory Preview
  5. Stuff We Care About Today – SWN , WPX, CRZO
  6. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to Continue Reading »


08
Oct

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: We get the FOMC minutes today at 2 pm EST. All eyes on that report for signs of tightening timing. In energy land, more of the same type action is expected with fairly traction-less "leadership" names in the sub groups doing little to foster confidence in the smaller and mid cap names, with potential buyers awaiting more solid footing for crude. In today's post please find comments on EOG and other key area "leaders" as we largely read, write, do some math, and sit on our hands in lieu of putting additional good money to work after other good money (we like what we own) at this time. We're long term investors and we don't catch falling knives very often.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – Leadership Watch
  5. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to

Continue Reading »

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