18
Mar

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Nervous market conditions back in force over the last week.  In focus today, The FOMC decision followed by what will be the most parsed press conference of Janet Yellen's tenure to date. In energyland, the E&P group has very little traction at the moment as we approach peak inventories. After writing about nervous market conditions late last year post November OPEC inaction and into early this year we added lightly to the ZLT, largely via Trading positions (3 to 9 month holds in mind) on top of Cores (2 to 3 holds in mind) and of late via the shorter term trading account (the ZMT where the M stands for medium or in this case misnomer as we are looking for 3 month type and shorter moves there this year). IF the E&P continues to contract towards the December lows we are increasingly of a mind to bring in reserve capital. This will likely be in April, stay tuned. In today's post please find an updated cheat sheet for RSPP and  some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the FOMC statement at 2 pm EST today, 
  • Followed by the bimonthly Yellen press conference at 2:30 pm EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - RSPP, ZLT+ Grid
  4. Odds & Ends

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17
Mar

Tuesday Morning – RSPP

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Market Sentiment Watch: Fed tomorrow has the nearly undivided attention of most market participants. Energyland continues to eye bits of commentary coming from closed door negotiations with Iran. In today's post please find comments on the RSPP 4Q14 results (much higher than expected volumes, low debt high growth story intact), a secondary filing for CRZO along with brief comments and a pro forma cheat sheet since we didn't have time to add one when they reported in late Febrary and several other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Housing Starts at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.045 mm, last read was 1.065mm), 
  • We get building permits at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 1.06). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – RSPP, CRZO, EXXI/GULTU, SSN
  4. Odds & Ends

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16
Mar

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Fed on the minds of everyone in the market as it's Yellen's every other month press conference time and though the Fed has warned that testimony doesn't have to coincide with a hike, the market seems to think that a hike won't come without testimony and that recent data make now a good time. In energyland, an potential Iran nuclear deal, said to be two weeks from the next go/no go point is heavy on the minds of oil market participants. In today's post please find The Week That Was (see all the things the oil markets seemed to ignore last week and some they didn't), comments on the OPEC Monthly, and a few other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Empire State at 8:30 am EST (F = 8.5, last read of 7.8),
  • We get Industrial Production at 9:15 am EST (F = 0.3%, last read was 0.2%),
  • We get Capacity Utilization at 9:15 am EST (F = 79.6%, last read was 79.4%),
  • We get the Home Builders' index at 10 am EST (F = 57, last read was 55),
  • OPEC Monthly - see quick comments below. 

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 3/17: Housing Starts, Building Permits, 
  • Wednesday 3/18: FOMC Statement, Yellen Testimony, 
  • Thursday 3/19: Jobless claims, Philly Fed, Leading Indicators, 
  • Friday 3/20: No economic data release scheduled. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - REXX
  5. Odds & Ends

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15
Mar

Wrap – Week Ended 3/13/15

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Questions and comments under the Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. 

wrap 031315

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13
Mar

Friday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch:  In today's post please find the natural gas inventory slide show (bigger than expected number but sort of a last hurrah for the season), capital budget plans for 2015 for the ZLT plus updated through the quarter, and a few other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get PPI at 8:30 am EST (F =  0.4%, last read was -0.8%),
  • We get consumer sentiment at 10 am EST (F = 94.8, last read of 95.4)

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - 2015 E&P Capex 
  5. Odds & Ends

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