17
May

Wednesday Morning – More Permian

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Market Sentiment Watch: D.C. headlines hitting broad market futures. Very quiet in energyland pre OPEC. We continue to update thoughts on positioning in the wake of a strong 1Q17 reporting season. In today's post please find updated cheat sheets for Permian Players CDEV, and CXO, and the annotated Permian Short Form Multiples table, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • No economic data release. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - CXO, CDEV, Permian Multiples
  4. Odds & Ends

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16
May

Tuesday Morning – Permian Cheats Day 1

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Market Sentiment Watch: News flow at May slow in the group. In today's post please find cheat sheets for CPE, RSPP, JAG, LPI, the early reads on oil and natural gas inventories, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Housing starts at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 1.215 mm),
  • We get Building permits at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 1.267 mm),
  • We get Industrial production at 9.15 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.5%),
  • We get Capacity utilization at 9:15 am EST (no forecast, last read was 76.1%). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – Cheat Sheet Updates: (CPE, RSPP, JAG, LPI), OII  
  4. Odds & Ends

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15
May

Monday Morning – Saudi, Russia Plan Production Cut Extension

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Market Sentiment Watch:  Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to extend production cuts until March 2018. Nymex shorts, having increased their position by 60% over the last two weeks should be looking at an uncomfortable session. Expect periods of sharp volatility in the group (both directions).  In today's post please find comments in the Holdings Watch section outlining our plan for Spring Cleaning and Streamlining (we plan to sell into some strength this week on the names mentioned), The Week That Was, and some other odds and ends.  We will get EIA's monthly Drilling Productivity Report later this morning. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Empire State at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 5.2),
  • We get the Home Builders' index at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 68). 

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - Housing starts, building permits, industrial production, capacity utilization, 
  • Wednesday - no economic release scheduled, 
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, Philly Fed, leading indicators,
  • Friday - Advance services report.  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch - See notes below.
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today
  5. Odds & Ends

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13
May

Wrap – Week Ended 5/12/17

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The ZLT ended the week up 1% and is down 11.9% on the year. 

The XOP was up 1.3% on the week and is down 14.8% on the year. 

The Trading Blotter is up to date. 

 

Note the sharp rise in WTI short interest again this week, non-commercial (speculative) Nymex shorts up 31% for a two week rise of 60%. Good contrarian move that, just in front of the OPEC meet and greet. 

 

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12
May

T.G.I.F.

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Market Sentiment Watch: In today's post please find the natural gas inventory review (noticeably smaller than expected; data for this week again point to a sub average injection next week as well), So Far This Quarter (expanded to include another 16 companies bringing the total to 34), comments on the JAG quarter (nice beat, rapidly ramping as expected, low costs), and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get CPI at 8:30 am EST (headline and core forecast = 0.2%, last reads were -0.3% and -0.1% respectively),
  • We get Retail Sales at 8:30 am EST (headline and ex autos forecast are 0.5% apiece, last read was -0.2% and 0.0% respectively),
  • We get Consumer Sentiment at 10 am EST (F = 97.2% vs 97.0 last read).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - So Far This Quarter (expanded), JAG
  5. Odds & Ends

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