16
Dec

Tuesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Nervous market conditions persist with oil sentiment beginning to weighing on the broad markets. All eyes should be on the Fed and Yellen tomorrow and on conditions in Russia and China today. European PMI data was a mixed bag while China PMI highlighted the first contraction on the manufacturing side in 7 months.  Energy land continues to move lower on daily drops in oil prices (see comments Commodity Watch section) and the analysts continue to throw inthe towel with drastic and now repeated target price and rating cuts for anyone who has any debt and sells hydrocarbons.  In today's post please find thoughts on the plunge in WLL and some other odds and ends including more towel throws by analysts on the E&P sector (it's not often you see targets come off by 80% but it's becoming common of late).  

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Housing Starts at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.035 mm, last read 1.01 mm), 
  • Markit Flash PMI – China shows contraction for first time in 7 months coming in at 49.5 vs 50.0 last month. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – WLL
  4. Odds & Ends

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15
Dec

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Bigger week on the economic data front with Yellen's comments post FOMC as the last one of the year being the highlight. Energy land remains under the cloud of oil prices. We continue to largely sit on our hands although some adjusts are in the works (see comments in the Holdings Watch section below).  In today's post please find comments on our revised oil price deck in the Commodities Watch section below. Please also find The Week That Was and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the Empire State Index at 8:30 am EST (F = 12, last read was 10.2),
  • We get Industrial Production at 9:15 am EST (F = 0.9%, last read was -0.1%), 
  • We get Capacity Utilization at 9:15 am EST (F = 79.4%, last read was 78.9%), 
  • We get the Home builders' index at 10 am EST (F = 59, last read was 58).

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 12/16: Housing starts, Markit flash PMI, 
  • Wednesday 12/17: CPI, FOMC statement, Yellen's press conference, 
  • Thursday 12/18: Jobless claims, Philly Fed, leading indicators, 
  • Friday 12/19: no economic data release scheduled. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – RRC, MRD
  5. Odds & Ends

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14
Dec

Wrap – Week Ended 12/12/14

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Questions and comments will be addressed in the Monday post. 

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12
Dec

Friday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Nervous market conditions persist as oil still can't find traction. In energyland, oil broke $60 yesterday which was the new inevitable big fat round number target. We expect a slew of new budget guidance from E&Ps next week which should both remove additional uncertainty from the names and show off what will be less sporty growth from the U.S.  In today's post please find the natural gas inventory slide show (better than expected), some comments on PDCE, and on EOX as they shift their budget towards achieving free cash flow despite current oil prices and thereby protect the balance sheet as they await a better oil price environment. 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get PPI at 8:30 am EST (F = -0.1%, last read 0.2%), 
  • We get Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 am EST (F = 89.6, last read was 88.8)

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – PDCE, EOX
  5. Odds & Ends

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11
Dec

Thursday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Nervous market conditions persist. In today's post please find the natural gas inventory preview, the oil inventory review (near record refinery utilization met a new cycle high for production and a bounce in imports), more comments on the OAS view for 2015 along with some comments and our thoughts on their presentation at Wells Fargo yesterday, and some other odds and ends.

 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 296,000, last read was 297,000),
  • We get Retails Sales at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.4% headline and 0.1% ex autos).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Natural Gas Inventory Preview
  5. Stuff We Care About Today – OAS
  6. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to Continue Reading »

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