Archive for November, 2007


T.G.I.Expiration – Commodities Rallying Nicely Into Expiry

November Scud Watch: Front and Center. Rule #1. Never ignore your losers. That's hard spent education money and the last thing you should do is try to forget about them. Rule #2. Try to learn from rule number #1.  I had more than my usual number of scuds this month. A lot more than I […]


Thursday – Dualing Inventory Reports

Did a little profit taking yesterday; expect to do some profit and loss taking in the November strikes as we close at the month Friday.   Commodity Watch Crude Oil: Big rebound yesterday after the pressure from futures options expiration passed on Tuesday. December crude ended up $2.92 at $94.09. This morning crude is trading […]


Wednesday – Bouncing Crude and No Energy Reports Until Tomorrow Will Give It Room To Run – Time to Close Many November Positions

No EIA Inventory Report Today.  Expect to see plenty of November trade closings starting today as we continue yesterday's rally. Analyst Price Deck Watch: (the price deck is the estimate analysts use to run their models that ultimately produce the CFPS estimates). Right now, the deck particularly conservative relative to 4Q oil pricing.  As you […]


Tuesday – Volatility Abounds

Yesterday saw take no prisoners style selling, not just in energy but in tech Commodity Watch: Crude Oil: Opened below $94 on the Saudi increased production threat and ended down $1.70, at $94.62. This started a wave of selling that sent the energy sector tumbling and left the XOI, XNG and OIH down 3.7%, 4.0% […]


Monday Morning and all is Red

Commodity Watch: Crude Oil: Off $2.50 to $93.80 as Saudi Arabia hints at the possibility of an output hike to curb rising prices.  Look for quite a bit of volatility as we have contract rollover tomorrow and an unusually high number of calls are outstanding at the $100 level which could draw prices higher despite […]

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