Z1 – How To ZEB



What is Zman's Energy Brain?

1) Five Daily Columns Per Week…  Posted generally an hour before the U.S. market opens, these posts detail a wide range of general energy topics, as well as company specific issues.

Example of a typical macro post (Warning: It's long and there is a lot of stuff in there - including two Bakken's reporting that day - so scroll down to see comments on the Natural Gas Macro.)

2) ... Plus A Weekly Wrap. A look back at the numbers and a look ahead at the week to come.  This is posted on Saturday or Sunday and is open to the public. A detailed summary of the prior week's activity, news and analysis is included with each Monday post.  

3) WIOWIO, Catalyst List, ZLT Stats, and Subsector Updates.   The WIOWIO is "Why I Own What I Own" and is quick take on each name in the ZLT (It's the two minute ride down the elevator version.). The Catalyst List is a detailed view of future drivers for primarily E&P names in the portfolio, and some we watch but don't own.  The ZLT Stats piece is a running update of how the names are progressing over time from a graphical view of their fundamentals.  Within the exploration and production group, you'll also get updates along the lines of the Bakken Players Update, the Gassy Players Update, the Wattenbergs, the Gulf Players, etc.

Here's an example of a Bakken Players update

4) Company Specific Reports. Occasionally I get the urge to write a little more than you might want to read before your third cup of coffee about an individual company (generally a small to medium cap E&P). These seem to come out more often during earnings season, but you never know.

Here's a recent one on BCEI we wrote for Seeking Alpha 

5) And You Get The ZEB Community. The community around here includes a startlingly knowledgeable crew of investors with expertise ranging from exploration and production to nuclear engineering, not to mention an active oil and gas trader or two. Got a question? We've generally got more than a few answers for you. And this is not your father's chat board. If that's what your looking for, stop reading now and check out the Yahoo! message boards.  You'll find the community and myself talking over a wide variety of topics below each day's posts. 

6) ZBLASTs.  Email and/or Text notification of our trades for subscribers who want it.

7) Performance. You can see all my winners and losers in a series of accounts known as the ZLT (Zman Long Term) portfolio. We also have a blotter so you can look at the trades going back in time. 

How To ZEB

1) Read the post. We don't give advice. but we do tell you what we are thinking and doing.  I am an E&P analyst and most of my energy stuff is focused there, but we do write on a wide variety of topics each day.

2) Participate.  If you have questions, please ask them.  There are no stupid ones here. If I don't know the answer, someone probably does on the site or it may be something we need to look into. Either way, just ask.  Chances are others have the same question.

3) Investigate. The site is fully searchable via a search bar in the upper left corner, a "categories" pull-down menu that will take you to posts concerning that ticker or subject (also at upper left), and the calendar function. If you know we had comments on a name or topic and the date on which that news occurred, you can track it down using the calendar (yeah, at left). If you can't find something though, again, just ask and we'll track it down for you.

  • Tips on searching the site. We've been doing this for quite some time now and have gotten pretty quick at finding something. If you want our past thoughts on a name, say KOG, the best thing to do is to go to the categories pull down menu, scroll down to KOG, and select it. This will bring up a list of links to posts in which KOG was tagged as a topic, with the most recent ones first. We suggest then either scrolling to the Stuff section to locate the post comments or using your browsers Find function, enter KOG and then tab through all the mentions of the ticker in that post to find what you are looking for - including down into the comments section below the post.   

Who Is ZEB

I'm an E&P analyst with a background in energy research, energy banking, and small cap growth portfolio management. I've been active in the capital markets since 1991, and over that time I've been on the Buyside, the Bankside, and the Sellside.  Since 2006, I've been on the Myside (Yourside).  I focus on company fundamentals, as well as the macro backdrop for oil and natural gas, and I keep tabs on the coal and alternative energy industries as well. I have a medium to long term investment horizon, and most positions are taken with the idea of 2 to 3 year holds at minimum. I focus on understanding the plays and the models down to the EBITDA line. I talk to many of my names, listen to all of their conference calls (and many more calls of names I don't own), and do that other analyst stuff, but I don't have bankers to think about and I don't waste time marketing. Also, I have my money on the line, unlike most analysts who aren't allowed to. I'm not a technical analyst (although I can read a chart as well as many since I got my start that way long, long ago), and I'm not anything akin to a day trader. Over time, armed with constantly updated knowledge and with input from some really smart people on the site (from industry and from the Buy and Sellside as well as some savvy individual investors), I find this approach of doing your homework first, taking your time in building and exiting positions, and using a balanced and diversified approach taught in all those portfolio management classes I took in school (we generally hold 20 to 25 names) seems to work best.  


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