Wrap – Week Ended 5/13/16



Charts For Thought:

oil prod 050616 B


Rigs Should Bottom Soon ... But Oil Production Decline Will Steepen

oil prod 051316

Well Starts On A Run Rate For New Lows

spuds April 2016


Existing wells being neglected

workover jan 2016


Better than expected weekly EIA oil inventories on flattish imports, record for week of year refinery throughput, the expected further acceleration lower in U.S. crude production, and record for week of year gasoline demand. 

exp vs act 050616


Natural gas in storage - in line to slightly better than expected weekly injection, much better than year ago and five year average injections as the massive storage overhang left from our just ended non-winter continues to erode. 

gas table 050616


If you have questions or comments about Zman's Energy Brain please feel free to email us at zman@zmansenergybrain.com


We added to our position in MRD last week at $11.38 during the conference call. Street has been missing the forest for the random tree here for too long. 

And MRD Wrap and Cheat can be found here.  This link also contains the weekly oil inventory review slide show. 

The Blotter has been updated.

The ZLT was up 2.3% points to 19.2% YTD while the XOP was up 1% to 11.2% YTD. 

The Wrap Table 

wrap 051316

8 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 5/13/16”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Favorite quote of the week:

    "Changes to the data in this month's Report confirm the direction of travel of the oil market towards balance. The net result of our changes to demand and supply data is that we expect to see global oil stocks increase by 1.3 mb/d in 1H16 followed by a dramatic reduction in 2H16 to 0.2 mb/d." ~ IEA

  2. 2
    Baylor Says:

    any fibbonacci peeps out there?  thoughts on this?


  3. 3
    Baylor Says:

    My experience has been that when there are massive, catastrophic collapses (like the one we just went through), that is when the most money is made.  The question is how this time around?

  4. 4
    Baylor Says:

    From peak to trough we've lost 80% of our US rigs in the past 21 months or so. 

    Looking for historical patterns, is there a similar collapse in rigs we could draw a correlation to?  What happened to the price of oil and small to mid to smid cap companies during that time?

    I'm trying to determine when new capital should be applied to maximize returns based on previous boom bust cycles in the oil patch

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Questions and comments under the Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. 

  6. 6
    life’s-a-gas Says:

    Goldman Sachs emerges as vast natural gas player


  7. 7
    life’s-a-gas Says:

    RRC to buy MRD


  8. 8
    Moglie monta ilmarito porno italia Says:

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