01
Mar
Wrap – Week Ended 02/28/14
Pretty good week and as always all will be summarized in the Monday post in the The Week That Was section.
The calendar for the coming week's 4Q13 reports will be posted Sunday evening to the Calendar tab.
We wrote a quick note last week for SA on HK here.
The natural gas macro slides will be included in the Monday post.
We have a private call with OEDV's CEO Monday at 1 pm EST. The dial in number will be in the Monday post. Lines are limited so dial in early.
Don't forget to follow us Twitter using the follow bird on the right hand side of the site and if you have questions about Zman's Energy Brain feel free to contact us at zman@zmansenergybrain.com.
If the wrap table runs off the right hand side of your screen try adjusting your browser zoom settings or you can click on the chart to pull it up in its own window. Have a great weekend.
Z, Would you consider showing your investment returns on your long term portfolio ZLT D in your weekly wrap. It seems to me that it would more closely resemble the return of your overall portfolio as it holds shares in most of the names in the ZLT universe, as opposed to the other accounts that typically only hold 6 to 8 stocks. The performance of those accounts with a small number of shares can obviously be significantly affected (good or bad) by the performance of just one or two stocks. Just curious about the returns on the larger group, since your smaller accounts consistently outperform my account which has positions in most of the ZLT names. Thanks
March 1st, 2014 at 1:42 pmre 1 – Re ZLT D – That account gets additional cash added to it each year from two other acounts so I'd have to back out the cash. We added a bigger than usual lump of cash there in January this year (added some new names with that as well to some older names as noted on the Blotter) and after backing that out it's up 9% this year (the IPO's have been helping that one more whereas the A and B received no new cash and are nearly fully invested now). Last year I show the ZLT D up 32% but it would be a little less that as there were a couple of smaller cash adds that are in there, probably closer to high 20%'s. 2012 was 16% (which was better than the accounts with fewer names that year) but again, that's going to be slightly inflated by small cash additions. I've got a securities lawyer who basically frowns at me showing long term returns on accounts where I didn't start out doing in the first and I didn't do that there because of the cash additions and am not going to start now.
All returns are unaudited, etc. But yes, it holds more names than A. B, C, and G accounts and it is more active than the C and G for sure.
Please see pie chart of overall greater ZLT weightings to see my position on our names in general (ZLT C and ZLT G accounts are not included in the greater ZLT – they are smaller and traded less frequently). We don't swing for the fences as most names are 2% to 3% positions with some of the top names in the 8% to 10% range (at times but not now) but only due to appreciation. We generally keep things pretty balanced in the A,B,C, D and there are E and F accounts as well with 12 to 15 positions apiece.
If you look at the ZLT C for instance, this year it's up 18% and that's a function of having two of what where fairly equally weighted names jump up so much over the last 12 months (PVA and BCEI) to overweight positions, offset by 1 name that's been cut in half (see ZEB Positions tab for the table. And again, you can see how those rank out in the greater ZLT and from thoughts on the WIOWIO. Note that the ZLT C has not done a trade since April of 2013 and it's always fully invested in common shares (7 names at present).
The ZLT G's are our latest new set of accounts which we happened to start and fully invest at the top of the E&P market last November. They were equally weighted in 6 names, have been down as much as 10% and have not done a trade since we rounded them out in November. Those accounts pulled green this week for the first time.
Regarding your last, weighting is key. Timing is less important but we don't do a lot of chasing. Note that we don't over weight in single digit midgets or if that happens due to appreciation we re-balance those more swiftly. Hope that helps and if you have more questions on this let's address them under the Monday post.
March 1st, 2014 at 2:15 pmZ: Your ATW was written up in Barron's. Quoting Waqar Syed @ GS saying it has 40% upside potential. You might want to look at again. It is cheap but you might want to do your own look see. I would call them my #2 name in the space.
March 1st, 2014 at 5:35 pmre 3 – thanks, not mine as we don't own it but willing to revisit.
March 1st, 2014 at 5:40 pmZ—any chance you can review the EPL call one day soon?
March 2nd, 2014 at 8:00 amremarkable how Barron's over the years studiously avoids mentioning SDRL whenever the offshore drilling space comes up
March 2nd, 2014 at 11:06 amre 5 – yes, will get to it by Wednesday.
March 2nd, 2014 at 12:01 pmOil Producer Index
Daily
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/02/oil_producer_index
Weekly
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/02/oil_producer_index_weekly
March 2nd, 2014 at 2:34 pmBakken Producer Index
Daily
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/02/bakken_index
Weekly
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/02/bakken_index_weekly
March 2nd, 2014 at 2:51 pmPermian Producer Index
Daily
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/02/permian_index
Weekly
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/02/permian_index_weekly
March 2nd, 2014 at 2:53 pmNatural Gas Producers
Daily
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/02/nat_gas_producer_index
Weekly
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/02/natural_gas_weekly
March 2nd, 2014 at 3:00 pmThanks Zorg
This business in Ukraine appears to be getting out of hand.
March 2nd, 2014 at 3:21 pmHousekeeping Watch: We are going from 60's yesterday to 16 here tonight with heavy ice accumulations likely. We will post the Monday post overnight just in case we lose power. The OEDV call number will be included in that post.
March 2nd, 2014 at 3:34 pmFutures reacting to Ukraine.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/
March 2nd, 2014 at 6:23 pmMy son came in town and can't get back to Fayetteville because of the ice. What a swing.
March 2nd, 2014 at 6:46 pmThe Monday post is up due to bad weather in our area:
http://zmansenergybrain.com/2014/03/02/monday-morning-post-in-progress/
March 2nd, 2014 at 6:56 pmre 15 – hear ya on that, we're having thunder sleet here. Fun, fun.
March 2nd, 2014 at 7:13 pm#14 S&P Futures..Friday's range expansion negated so far with the market trading below 1846 CLVN. 1836 CHVN is the key volume pivot/price magnet. Where we open and trade in relationship to that level will be important next week.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/03/es_master_140302162802
March 2nd, 2014 at 7:32 pmre 18 – you can go ahead and start posting under the Monday post if you like, noted over there what oil is doing tonight (up, up, away).
March 2nd, 2014 at 7:41 pm