13
Jan

Wrap – Week Ended 1/13/18

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The ZLT was up ~ 1% last week and is up 5.0% on the year. 

Housekeeping Watch: Please note that the following group multiples and hedges have been added to the links at left for easy reference. They will be updated for pricing by Tuesday and will be there on a permanent basis going forward:

  • BAKKEN
  • GASSY
  • PERMIAN
  • WATTENBERG 
  • Two additional groups will be added in the next two weeks.

In case you missed our preview of LBRT's IPO, check it out here.  This first IPO of 2018 reached our 6 month upside target in the first minutes of trading though our target multiple was admittedly conservative and we established a starter position.  

The blotter is updated. 

The Z4 Research Positions page will be updated Monday. 

Enjoy the long weekend. 

10 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 1/13/18”

  1. 1
    Baylor Says:

    Have you been surprised by the lack of any meaningful profit taking in oil or the stock of the E&P companies?  Seems to have been much more resilient on this pop than any of the pops the last 18 months 

     

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    re 1

    – Not particularly for the stocks.  The energy sub groups underperformed to commodities and the broad market last year after a strong 2016 bounce off the cycle lows, even as cash flow improved and outspend in general slowed (meaning some debt expansion occurred by TEV held flat or fell in many cases during the first 9 months of 2017.  As oil has moved higher and the broad market has slowed somewhat some additional capital appears to be rotating into the now less expensive energy groups. 

    – My comments on oil of late are reflected in each day's post this week and in the near term expectations for oil prices section of The Week That Was each Monday post for the last few months.  In a nutshell it appears slightly ahead of itself and will face modest fundamental headwinds in the near term (chiefly a loss of US crude stock decline momentum). 

  3. 3
    Baylor Says:

    What does he mean "exports are cancelled"?  From where?

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    re 3 – to what are you referencing?

  5. 5
    Baylor Says:

    One of the tweets you RT

  6. 6
    Baylor Says:

     

    Mohamad Al-Shatti

    Oil Market Is bullish How U.S. oil market this past week was short light sweet crude supply currently relative to expectations. Whether it be the Permian, Bakken, Oklahoma or even Syncrude buyers are having difficulty finding supply and it is rumored exports are cancelled.

     

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    re 5 – I was retweeting the original comment regarding Pira thoughts..

    "PIRA preliminary estimates of end December 2017 commercial inventories in the three major OECD markets. These show a large 4Q 2017 stock draw of 89 million barrels of which 45 million was in crude oil, the largest crude oil stock decline since 1999"

  8. 8
    Baylor Says:

    Understood I was asking about the rumor he mentioned

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Last week:  

    • Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days (HDDs) came in at 192 vs 226 normal and 299 in the prior week but well above the prediction for the week of 170. 

    This week's forecast:  

    • This week, CPC predicts HDDs will rally to 225 vs 225 normal. 
  10. 10
    zman Says:

    ZLT positions updated:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/holdings-wiki/

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