27
Aug

Wrap – Week Ended 8/26/16

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The ZLT was down 1% last week and is up 36.9% YTD. The XOP was down 1% last week and is up 23.3% YTD.

Questions and comments under the Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. 

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wrap 082616

6 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 8/26/16”

  1. 1
    zman Says:
    Short Term Forecast: CPC 3 to 4 week outlook (updated every Friday) – The mid September view calls for heat (a change from the prior forecast which saw coolness in the middle of the US). The new forecast see's warmer than normal temps everwhere but in the west and north central regions.    
               
    Link to the graphic of the preceding paragraph:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/
  2. 2
    zman Says:
    Three month forecast: Very Much Warmer Than Normal … Everywhere. The September to November forecast shows much warmer than normal temps for ALL of the U.S. with extreme heat in the southwest, northeast, southeast and likely warmer than normal conditions in all of the rest of the country.  Nowhere in the continental U.S. does the NWS see equal chances let alone cooler than normal conditions. 
               
    Link to the graphic of the preceding paragraph:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
  3. 3
    james T Says:

    Z – The percentage change in crude short positions for week seems like a huge change for a week.    Did something really happen to warrant that change ?

  4. 4
    james T Says:

    Z re-3 Is this some pre shoulder season set up  ?

  5. 5
    nrgyman Says:

    Economic conditions are improving.  This weekly blog does a good job of presenting macro data analysis with links to further data sources if interested.  This week highlights two important macro data points:  

    1)  New home sales at a new multi-year high (great for oil demand as the construction industry is a more intensive user of refined products).

    2)  Chemical Activity Barometer is at a new all-time high (highly correlated with SPY and a 'new' indicator with a strong predictive profile–should be good for all energy consumption, but especially NGLs and natgas).

    http://dashofinsight.com/weighing-week-ahead-will-fed-get-signal-september-rate-hike/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2FQUWJ+%28A+Dash+of+Insight%29

  6. 6
    Baylor Says:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-funds-pile-bullish-bets-201621439.html

     

    largest bearish bet reduction in over a decade

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