25
Jul

Wrap – Week Ended 7/24/15

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wrap 072415

12 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 7/24/15”

  1. 1
    choices Says:

    More rocks being thrown at EIA reports:

    http://dailyreckoning.com/youre-dumb-if-you-rely-on-eia-numbers/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+dailyreckoning+%28The+Daily+Reckoning%29

  2. 2
    Baylor Says:

    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/This-Is-Why-A-Serious-Decline-In-US-Shale-Plays-Is-Not-Far-Away.html

  3. 3
    sea bull Says:

    Re 2 – One of the nice features of an article written on oilprice.com is you can click on a link that shows all the articles written by the author.  It allows you to get a sense of what, if any, leanings an author has.  The current article ignores the effect of hedges, increased worldwide demand and over estimates the impact of Iranian oil to the market.  I find those often to be common elements of the negative articles.  

    Going back to previous works, the author of this article wrote one in 2012 titled  "How the Oil Industry has Deceived the US with the Promise of Energy Independence".  

  4. 4
    Baylor Says:

    Re 3 – agreed sea bull.  It's interesting how much propaganda is out there today.  Historically, maybe it' always been this way, but it's crazy what you can get some people to believe (probably even myself even though I, and all of us probably, feel we're more vigilant than most).

     

  5. 5
    Baylor Says:

    I was doing some tax planning this morning and haven't purchased anything in my IRA yet this year.  I was thinking E&P may be a great place for that $5,000.

  6. 6
    brodway Says:

    re: 5

    Baylor 

    there couldn't be a better time to place that IRA money down on energy. its less stressful  knowing you can't really touch that money for a long time giving the investment an opportunity to grow. time heals all

  7. 7
    Baylor Says:

    Z – I'm putting together for my blog and am mentioning something about energy.  If the SPR was fully filled (I believe it's about 727million bbl at max capacity), how long would it last if it only replaced annual average daily imports? (I need the daily import average number).

    Also, how much oil does in bbl does America consume per day?

    thx

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    re 7

    – depends on time of year.

     – Net imports have averaged 6.8 mm bopd ytd,was 10.1 mm bopd in 2007.  Its a lower case n profile so we're at peak for the year now which coincides with refiner demand. 

     – Average consumption is going to be just under 16 mm bopd this year, a new high. 

     – SPR has 695.1 mm barrrels in it now. 

     

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    SWN call in 10 minutes

    No let up yet for oil or the XOP.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    SWN call about to begin. Notes to follow. Stock off 2.6% pre call and below $18. We got the lower capex and the increased production and so far no one cares. 

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    SWN 2Q15 Notes – Part 1

    Questions we've received over the last few months: 

    1) Cost savings: a big chunk of the $140 mm redux in capex is cost savings. 

    2) Captial efficiency and 2016 growth:  have seen some saying outspend of 25 to 30% of cash flow. This will NOT happen. In fact $1 B capex grows 4% in 2016, $1.4 B grows 7% and each $200 mm after that grows 2016 volumes by an additional 2%. 

    3) Takeaway concerns and macro commodity price concerns:  We have been able to add FT and FS to handle our growth.  Pipelines are being built out of the Marcellus and they see worst case being pipes are delayed and basis stays wide but then US volumes don't keep up with demand and therefore NYMEX rises. Says either way, buying them makes sense. 

     

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    SWN 2Q15 Notes – Part 1

    Questions we've received over the last few months: 

    1) Cost savings: a big chunk of the $140 mm redux in capex is cost savings. 

    2) Captial efficiency and 2016 growth:  have seen some saying outspend of 25 to 30% of cash flow. This will NOT happen. In fact $1 B capex grows 4% in 2016, $1.4 B grows 7% and each $200 mm after that grows 2016 volumes by an additional 2%. 

    3) Takeaway concerns and macro commodity price concerns:  We have been able to add FT and FS to handle our growth.  Pipelines are being built out of the Marcellus and they see worst case being pipes are delayed and basis stays wide but then US volumes don't keep up with demand and therefore NYMEX rises. Says either way, buying them makes sense. 

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