15
Jun

Monday 6/15/15 to Thursday 6/18/15

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Placeholder post. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • Today we get Empire State index, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and the NAHB home buiders' index

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 6/16: Housing starts, building permits,
  • Wednesday 6/17: FOMC announcement, Yellen press conference, 
  • Thursday 6/18: Jobless claims, CPI, Philly Fed, Leading indicators, 
  • Friday 6/19: no economic data release scheduled.

 

Click the link directly below this to ... .

We are on vacation until Friday but will check in from time to time this week. Please post news and market comments under this post.  Thanks, Z

249 Responses to “Monday 6/15/15 to Thursday 6/18/15”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 500 Futures Short Term Levels Of Interest

    Notes – Traded back to  CHVN. VPOC at 2105.  Range expansion above 2120. Demand volume and Ease of Movement negative. Sentiment = Fear.

    Thoughts –  Multi-Month range trading in dense congestion. Negative bias below 2090. Support at 2046

    2090           CHVN

    2046           Support/CLVN

    2030           CHVN/Dense congestion from 2048 to 2105

    SP500 Futures  (ES)

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/15/es_0

    XOP- Balanced trade around major long term acceptance at 49.40. Demand volume and ease of movement have turned negative. With a break below minor support at 48.46 I’d look for a test lower to major CLVN support at 46.39.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/15/xop

    Crude Oil –  Coiling around major long term acceptance at 58.  Key short term support at 56.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/15/cl_0

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    $USD  Off the chart alone,  it looks ready to give it up to 93 and below. 

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/15/dx

  3. 3
    james T Says:

    Gom projections and actual prodcution:

    http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4288&mn=185754&pt=msg&mid=15024614

  4. 4
    sc4 Says:

    old 88 packman – just out of interest- which council person sent that comment? tia

  5. 5
    brodway Says:

    Synergy Resources (SYRG) Removed from FBR Top Picks List

    FBR Capital analyst Megan Repine reiterated an Outperform rating and $15 price target on Synergy Resources Corporation (NYSE: SYRG)

  6. 6
    RB Says:

    Okay, so Z is out on vacation and we here must kabitz amongs ourselves hopefully in a patient and tolerant manner.  comment directed at me as much as anyone.  So, what I've been hearing Z say and do is to add to the stronger names and not play in the risky one's.  That'd be HK, EOX, GDP as an example of three.  We have seen most of the strength in the Permians, and I'd say rightfully so because the targets there are stacked deeper and offer more potential.  With that in mind the favorite Permian based on ZLT holding size appears to be RSPP but as the play has morphed he seems to like MTDR a lot as well.  RSPP hasn't shown any weakness today thus far, but my position there is small and that one is the one I am most interested in getting bigger in if the opportunity comes along.  Anyone else have a Permian they are wanting to get bigger in?

     

  7. 7
    elduque Says:

    Brent/WTI at 4.6

    TNX at 2.329

    Dollar at 95.116

    BDI at 642 (a little stronger)

  8. 8
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 6:  For Permian names, I like all of those that Z owns.  I also have a big position in another Permian name not owned by Z that I may add to on further pullback.  That name is EGN.  Great balance sheet and what looks like very attractive leasehold in the Midland, Delaware and Mancos shales.  Focused on the Midland for capex atm, but the Delaware and Mancos offer significant upside.  Attractive valuation.

  9. 9
    Baylor Says:

    The forming tropical storm seems to already be affecting NG prices

  10. 10
    Baylor Says:

    Quad witching this week

  11. 11
    Wayne G Says:

    Interesting read through on power demand coming from Mid-East…oil demand growth should be pretty correlated 

    U.A.E. Sees Natural Gas Imports Surging on Demand, Minister Says
    — The United Arab Emirates, an OPEC member that’s a net importer of natural gas, will need increasing amounts of the fuel to burn in power plants if demand continues rising at the current pace, the country’s energy minister said.
    “There is growth of around 6 percent, sometimes more, in energy demand,” Suhail Mohammed Al Mazrouei said at a news conference in Abu Dhabi. “The concern in the future is that we will require huge amounts of gas primarily coming from imports,” he said, without estimating the amounts needed.
    The U.A.E. is also targeting nuclear power and renewable sources such as solar and wind to create a broader base of energy supply, Mazrouei said. Like other oil-rich Middle Eastern states, the country is providing subsidized energy to a growing population even as its revenue from crude sales has declined. Crude prices fell by about half last year amid a supply glut.
    The U.A.E. imports about 2 billion standard cubic feet a day of gas by pipeline from Qatar to meet about 30 percent of its energy requirements, the network’s operator Dolphin Energy Ltd. said in September. Dubai, the U.A.E.’s largest emirate after Abu Dhabi, imports liquefied natural gas by ship at a terminal with capacity to expand to 800 million cubic feet a day, according to the government-run Dubai Supply Authority.
    Abu Dhabi plans an LNG terminal in the emirate of Fujairah to receive as much as 9 million tons of LNG a year, or about 1.2 billion cubic feet a day, once it starts in 2018. The U.A.E. will assess the need for additional gas imports after building this facility, Mazrouei said. The nation is the third-biggest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

     

  12. 12
    PackMan Says:

    4 – I threw out the mailing, but I think his name is Corey Johnson …

  13. 13
    PackMan Says:

    EOX – Not to beat a dead horse, but somebody put up a piece on seeking alpha last week that was pretty critical (no surprise) & the comments from a number of people were scathing towards management (similar to what I have been saying, but they are not from me) ..

  14. 14
    james T Says:

    re 9 -East Coast heat and humidity helping nat gas prices.  

  15. 15
    sc4 Says:

    12-noted.thanks. my guy does not bother to say anything about all his hard work.

  16. 16
    elduque Says:

    RB- another topic would be to discuss management. Seems to me that the street picks its favorites and they do out perfom peer group. For example BCEI is no longer the favorite name in the Wattenburg. Really hasn't been since the transition of CEO's. The new CEO needs to learn how to handle questions better. 

    On the other hand, CEO of OAS does a great job. 

     

  17. 17
    RB Says:

    EOX is a painful hold.  I bought way too much of it quite some time ago because I liked the cheap financing and thought they were doing a good job in the field.  The move they made to buy the Delaware basin property was a disaster and destroyed the market cap and did so quickly.  So, now it is up to them to make things work from here.  I am not buying more and have thought about cashing out with what I have left, which I failed to to do on AMZGQ.  I have the same problems with EXXI.  They have been a roach hotel too ever since they bought EPL.  I noted last week they had borrowed my shares on EXXI and were payiing 19.5%…obviously some people think the problems there are terminal looks like.

  18. 18
    RB Says:

    re: 16…Z blames most of the BCEI problems on lack of hedging.  I didn't especially like BCEI selecting a banking type to head the company and now that the market cap has shrunk so I like it even less because when he was brought aboard it made me think the for sale sign was out.  It'd be hard to take what that one would fetch right not.

  19. 19
    RB Says:

    As for OAS, yes I like those guys.  They ran Burlington here in FW prior to its sale.  Sometimes they can be too surgical in how they talk.  They are very competent, but lack flair and salemanship like some of the CEO's like Floyd Wilson and Evans at MHR have.  Floyd is a great combo of flair and competence.  Unfortunately, his top of the market re-entry to the business, and a bad step or two put him in a tough spot.  HK is another one I own way too much of because I like the CEO so much.

  20. 20
    PackMan Says:

    RB – 17, 18 …. I can't disagree w/ any of that …

  21. 21
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 18:  BCEI also made a large acquisition, and weakened its balance sheet, not long before the crash.  Seems like the market punished them for that, as really strong balance sheets are valued highly now.  BCEI had a very strong one prior to the deal.  Not saying it is bad now, just weaker than previous and weaker now than peers PDCE and SYRG, who are attracting investment attention.  But BCEI is cheap on valuation now and seems to be gaining relative strength.  

  22. 22
    PackMan Says:

    21 – BCEI was 30 about a month ago; I felt a little better about it then; not sure what's happened to knock it down by 1/3 since then.  E&P has weakened as a sector, but not that much.

  23. 23
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 22:  BCEI isn't growing this year.  Peers PDCE and SYRG are enjoying fantastic growth in this environment, have great balance sheets and hedge books, and in PDCE's case a still very attractive valuation.  PMs see the same and are making portfolio adjustments accordingly.  Tough to compete with those two stellar stories in the same basin and peer group.  At some point BCEI's valuation will attract value conscious investors who are willing to be patient.  

  24. 24
    RB Says:

    thx for everyone's thoughts.  I raised some cash from my non-energy holdings toward May 1.  Not just a sell in May go away.  But the earnings info. in aggregate has deteriorated from what was expected at the first of the year in the stocks that make up the broad market, the advance decline line has weakened as has other measures of market breadth.  I left my energy stuff alone because, with it, I just thought it was too late and too much damage had been done to sell.  After the 2008 meltdown I made quite a bit in the oils, but thus far, in this malaise,  I haven't really got any sense of where I will go next to do it.  I am sure the opportunities will emerge, especially if the broad market weakens.  So right now I am just trying to make judgments of where I will allocate my money, given a better chance than we have in the stronger areas of the sector….

  25. 25
    choices Says:

    PXD-I note that people here tend to stay away from PXD-know that Z does not own it, not sure why not but it may be because it is large-my view is what is not to like, own options (spreads).

    welcome any comments

  26. 26
    elduque Says:

    Thanks everybody. Interesting how much the market penalizes lack of growth, no matter what the underlying asset value is. 

    Market wants to see growth otherwise not interested. For a value investor it seems to me that in the long run, it creates great opportunities. I  really believe we are going to see higher prices, so why a company wants to get rid of its prime assets at these prices seems foolish. Other than the market is going to reward you, providing you have the balance sheet to support it. 

  27. 27
    nrgyman Says:

    Pacific Free Trade agreement:  political shenanigans holding this back for the moment.  Not included in the massive trade proposal, which encompasses 40% of global economic activity, is free trade for domestically produced crude oil.  It is amazing to me that this gets so little attention when, by some estimates, 40-50% of US post-recession growth can be attributed to the domestic energy industry.  Yet, now with this industry in a recession, it must still labor under pricing conditions that favor overseas competitors due to US gov't imposed trade restrictions.  

  28. 28
    tomdavis12 Says:

    25  PXD Choices. My 2 cents is that earlier this year when Z was looking for the sideways action and the generals leading the way, I believe PXD was one of those generals. Things changed at the Einhorn short call. For EOG down 2.867% ytd and PXD down .57% ytd. I am in the camp that yes these stocks had not been extremely cheap. Market leaders rarely are. When I get off CC's with either of these two companies I sometimes wonder why would I buy anything else. PXD when at $220/sh was all about "Oh my God, these guys have the mother lode in their different benches."  I remind myself they still have something of value when the stock goes lower. The premium in the covered calls also allows for being paid to wait.  

  29. 29
    choices Says:

    #28-thanks, TD-do recall that z considered einhorn's comments silly but it prob is still laboring under that cloud.

    will wait a bit to add, also re-open on EOG.

  30. 30
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 25:  Einhorn caused a stir with his short attacks on PXD and EOG (the mother and father fraccers) and both names have underperformed since then.  Both have pristine balances sheets (Debt/ebitda <1, where 2 is the high end of 'investment grade') and outstanding acreage in high IRR areas.  Both managements are top-notch.  EOG is cheaper on valuation compared to PXD (TEV/ebitda = 6.6 vs 8.6, using ttm ebitda), but PXD has a longer runway of high IRR leasehold (they claim a century of drilling).  Both look attractive for new investment at current levels, imo.  PXD, with a TEV of $24.3B vs EOG at $54B, is a more likely takeover candidate, a perfect choice for XOM imo.

  31. 31
    RB Says:

    re: 30 thx for your insights on PXD/EOG…hold EOG but not PXD…put in a below market order for a few shares PXD..

     

  32. 32
    elduque Says:

    Market action still is less than enthusiastic. Looking for a couple of days of having the stocks close at the top end of the daily range. 

  33. 33
    Baylor Says:

    If any of you have any thoughts on my post #91 from the 6/12 comments, please feel free to share on a slow day. Thx

  34. 34
    RB Says:

    So item #33 is this more or less:

    He's held an E&P portfolio for 8 years and hasn't beaten the S&P

    How many people trade vs how Z does it?

     

  35. 35
    PackMan Says:

    PXD – I view it as attractive here.  Was doing well until Einhorn shortly before Einhorn went public w/ his hit piece, which means he (and others probably) were getting short at 175-180 ish.  I sell puts on dips and selectively trade in and out of the stock.

  36. 36
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 33:  My E&P holdings were hit hard by the crash, but I do trade more frequently and was able to mitigate the losses–they still hurt though.  I also hold midstream names for income that have done much better over the past 18 months, though they have corrected down to attractive levels now as well.  My take going forward, and this is why I still like both E&P and midstream names, is that while crude may stay 'lower for longer' the service cost drops have been almost as dramatic as the commodity price corrections. The names with great balance sheets, significant drilling inventories in high IRR regions and solid management teams will outperform their peers and perhaps the broader market going forward, imo.  $60 crude is the new $90 in some areas due to service cost drops, drilling efficiencies, more productive well designs, and infrastructure build-outs.  The market, imo, does not fully appreciate this atm.  I hated the Saudi decision-change to let price regulate markets–for a time–but now I like it.  The US energy industry is the most innovative and adaptable in the world.  It will gain strength from this market discipline.  It would help if DC would allow 'free trade' in the domestic energy sector by removing the crude export ban and be generally more supportive of the industry.  Not likely, but one can hope.  Perhaps I'm more sanguine than others, but that is my take, fwiw.  

  37. 37
    Zorgnak Says:

    E&P .Group tested minor support and bounced on low volume. Milling around in dense congestion….A few stocks with above average demand volume..Permian best in show so far

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/15/xop_1

    Volume   

    Bakken/Permian

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/15/volumes

    Wattenburg/EFS/others

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/15/volumes_0

  38. 38
    Baylor Says:

    Re RB – thx. That's the gist. Just thinking more macro / philosophically while we're basically in purgatory the next couple of quarters. 

  39. 39
    nrgyman Says:

    Re 36:  The scenario I was referring to was crude staying 'lower for longer'.  If crude should move higher faster then the laggard names, those with less attractive balance sheets are likely to outperform the stronger names–at least for a period of time.  Also, I am bullish on the future of natgas and have invested in E&Ps in that sector that look attractive to me.  There are scenarios where natgas outperforms crude, with both E&P and midstream natgas-focused names being prime beneficiaries.  

  40. 40
    Baylor Says:

     Thanks for the thoughts nrgyman. 

  41. 41
    elduque Says:

    RRC and SWN still is in somebody's dog house. 

  42. 42
    RB Says:

    here is my answer. 

    I side stepped the 2008 meltdown and was in cash in early 2009.  In the 2009 melt up I made a considerable amount of money using this site and all but quit trading.  I didn't side step the sudden drop in energy equities this past year and I've left a lot of my money in someone else's account, at least for now. 

    Prior making what I did in 2009, I had strict limits and trading criteria on everything I entered.  Perhaps I should have stayed with that, but I am 64 and trading is for young bucs and bucaresses, if that's what you call a lady buckaroo.  Trading works great, if you have the skill set and an edge,  in choppy markets and bear markets.  In bull markets you will fall behind.  We have not been in a bull market for oil equities, overall in quite some time.  

    Trading, insofar as I'm concerned is best suited for young people or those that have the ability to focus themselves into their later years, which I do not have.

    I sense a lot of people trying to take advantage of short-term movements in here and at times people get frustrated with Z because he doesn't speak to those needs.  That isn't however neglected in this forum.  Quite the contrary, I think you can have it both ways here but it will take a lot of work, especially when the markets are closed and you can focus on all that is presented.

    Besides all of Z's macro and big picture stuff on the emerging companies he covers,   I see Zorg continually posting setups for the stocks in the ZLT.  Most of these setups address the very, very near term with points of control where you sell or buy. It takes a helluva lot of work for him to do that, and it will take a lot of work to digest it, but if you want to trade there isn't a better place to piggy back, but he can't place the trades for you.  Besides that, I see Nrgyman forever posting comments about stocks breaking out from point and figure formations etc.  And Nrgyman this morning was kind enough to carry on a conversation about EGN/PXD/EOG which are larger than the stocks Z prefers to cover. 

    Of couse, you have to have studied the technical methods these guys use in order to make any of that work for you and you have to develop a plan for how you are going to use it.  But I find it befuddling that people can't make a go of it trading for the short term in here with stocks Z thinks have sound fundamental merits and Zorg and Nrgyman give set ups on. 

    Now as to whether or not I've beaten the SP, I could care less.  I think it was 2013, when the markets chopped around and scared the bejeebers out of everyoone all year and then went on a big run to finish up 40%.  I was still trading back then and was bearish and was short the markets early on in the year and never quite got to the right side of the table, but I did protect what I'd made in 2009-2011.

    The trading firm I worked for was associated with one of the wealthy Texas oil families, so I've been around the industry all my life, having been born in Vernon, Texas to a family that worked on the Waggoner Ranch and its oil properties.  So, after I achieved the little success I mentioned previously I decided to put some of it into oil equities on a permanent basis, without much regard to technicals.  I did that because I thought owning oil/gas in a safe place was a good bet long term.  Having seen the pressure put on by the Saudis, I would be more comfortable had I placed a larger portion of my eggs in the better capitalized oils than I did, but success is a work in process.  The only people that start from the top are well diggers and I'm not one of those, at least yet.

    Like you I looked a long while to find success with investing, but I did find a modicum of it and have enjoyed the process immensely.I have studied all the technical ways to trade for years and years and have some mastery of the techniques Zorg and Nrgyman use. 

    And last, I don't own a 100% oil portfolio.  My exposure to oil is approx. 20%.  It was a good deal more before the shrinkage I've experienced in the last year. 

    Best of luck

  43. 43
    PackMan Says:

    The doghouse is very large …

  44. 44
    RB Says:

    as Thomas Edison said after his business that contained all his equipment and research burned down.  this is of course paraphrased "At least all my mistakes are gone and I can start anew"…I think all the great people are positive and expect the next thing to happen to be good.  Not a master of that mindset by any means, but I try to avoid falling into the abyss.

  45. 45
    Baylor Says:

    Re 43, the dog penthouse

  46. 46
    Baylor Says:

    Re RB, thx for the detailed, well thought out response. 

    Im about 25% in E&P. More of my position than is planned is now in distressed balance sheet names. Hopefully survive or are not taking out or down at super low prices. I won't be selling. 

    That and my RCPI position represent the vast majority if my losses the last 12 months. Didn't consider any if those bets the lottery ticket they are now.  You live and you learn. Stocks aren't a way to get rich for most people in <15 years anyway without way more skill than I have. 

  47. 47
    Baylor Says:

    RB, are you in the DFW area?

  48. 48
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    RB; thanks for the perspective.  I also appreciate everyone else's viewpoints.

  49. 49
    RB Says:

    Baylor, yes, I live in Colleyville and work in Bedford.

  50. 50
    Baylor Says:

    Nice. I'm in the Las Colinas area.  Maybe we could grab a drink sometime and talk investing. 

  51. 51
    sc4 Says:

    RB-and others thank you for your posts. I too have balance with very significant distribution of assets in biotech,mlps and mreits. Energy should and will be important and will recover but how long it will take is less that clear. Using this site as you and or others noted takes a great deal of work. That said, if you use it well you can understand some of your actions. In point of fact, for the last 8 months or so have sold a lot more in the money puts on biotech firms that I'm willing to own. I think the daily grind of dealing with energy at this point is very tough. Have averaged down in a few places but waiting till the fall to see how things play. Clearly, sticking with better funded stocks at this point seems like a good idea. Have not cleaned out some of the midpoint  stocks ie.. not bad  and yet not outstanding. These should probably go as they come close to break evens with the funds put into high potential names. Seems easier said than done. Good luck to all of you.

  52. 52
    choices Says:

    PXD/EOG-thanks to all for cmts-useful and constructive.

  53. 53
    Dillon Says:

    Baylor – in regards to your questions I tend to trade more when I have time, but hold longer term when I am busy and dont have as much time. I started investing (diversified) in about october of 2008..all the while adding more and more throughout the bottom and did well for the next couple years as the market rose back. During that time I became more and more fascinated with E&P as my father had always traded them and turned me onto this site which furtherd my interest as well. My 2 biggest gains were made in MHR from the early days of $.39 before the name change and the ego got out of control over the next couple of years…and then SSN on the first initial run to $4. Those were the only 2 times where going in heavy on something panned out for me. Since then I have been cut at the knees a couple times doing that….most recently PVA and TPLM. I took profits on most everything else last June (2014) but held onto both of those 2 thinking the gain in the longterm would be so big that I wanted the longterm tax treatment. I started shorting the oil E&P's as a hedge over the next month (July 2014) and took small profits when oil dropped to $90; then started reloading long. You can impagine how my portfolio looks now haha (not really though). I think the things I have picked up in my time so far is that I really should be more like Z in not going so big in any 2 or so names (obvious but hard for some to do). Also, that I should really pay more attention to the macro on oil and gas prices driving these E&P's (hindsight is 20/20). Despite if they are OK hedge and balance sheet wise going into a downturn, the market doesn't care and will throw baby out with the bathwater as I hear a lot. I have been buying all the way down as oil went to $70, $60, and into the $40's with cash I had in the account. This might sound nice but really unless you bought many of these stocks at the exact bottom, your portfolio of long E&P names will look horrible for right now. (Ex. BCEI at $35 seemed like a steal 6 months ago but if you bought then you are down almost 50%)

    All of this said, I feel no there is no safer place than here in the Z nest for me and am confident that the strategy of watching companies grow EBITDA/BOE, maintaining balance sheet, and securing cheap financing at opportune times, will be profitable through the turbulence over time. Combine this with some of the technicals Zorg and a few others keep tabs on for the names we follow, and it can really sweeten the deal (time allowing for myself). For now I am holding long; not trading and trying to be cute. I am fearful of the train leaving the station while I am not on board for a decent bull run in oil. 

  54. 54
    brodway Says:

    Zorg..

    REXX got down to almost the level of support on the chart you provided last week…..i really didn't think it wouldn't get down below 4 3/4.

    next time i should consider not being so stubborn and wait for them to come to me…bought some more today, so averaged my purchases out at 4 1/2 with last weeks purchases…and feel perfectly  comfortable being long at that price.

    just wanted to thank you for your insightful charts….and once again i say next time

  55. 55
    Zorgnak Says:

    #54  Re REXX…Tough one to trade in the best of times….

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/15/rexx

  56. 56
    Baylor Says:

    re 55 zorg, what would you consider the easiest of the names in the Z portfolio to trade and why?

  57. 57
    Baylor Says:

    Do y'all think the 5% rise in NG prices today was due to the tropical storm off the coast of texas?  Not much else changed that we didnt know on friday last week.

  58. 58
    Baylor Says:

    Re 57, I also saw another post attributed the rise to higher temperatures in the north east.

  59. 59
    life’s-a-gas Says:

    And yet another possible reason why gas prices are rising – curtailed production:

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-industry-is-gassing-down-1434410757

  60. 60
    Wayne G Says:

    Libya Plans to Raise Oil Output to 600k b/d in ‘Next Few Weeks’ 
       Current production ~430k b/d, National Oil Co. of Libya Chairman Mustafa Sanalla says in London. 
    • Output to rise to 1m b/d by end-2015
    • Output to reach 2.1m b/d by 2017
    • Libya requires ~180k b/d for own use
    • Higher global oil use will absorb increased Libyan output

  61. 61
    Wayne G Says:

    JPMorgan Says U.S. Oil Production to Start Declining in June 
       Ouptut seen ending 2015 at 9.2m b/d, 200k b/d higher than previous est., David Martin, a JPMorgan analyst, says in June 12 report. 
    • U.S. crude production now 9.4m b/d, up 200k b/d from previous est., will be 150k b/d lower in Dec. than yr earlier
    • Higher OPEC production seen required as U.S. oil production “rolls over,” resulting in tighter market conditions in 2H

  62. 62
    Wayne G Says:

    *GLOBAL LIGHT, SWEET OIL DEMAND 64M B/D: CONTINENTAL'S HAMM

    *ONLY A FEW INDEPENDENT REFINERS AGAINST U.S. OIL EXPORTS: HAMM

    *U.S. OIL RIG SLIDE HASN'T LEVELED OFF YET: CONTINENTAL'S HAMM

    *SHALE OIL PRODUCTION `ROLLING OVER' NOW: CONTINENTAL'S HAMM

    *U.S. CRUDE PRODUCTION TO DECLINE 1M B/D WITHIN A YEAR: HAMM

    *PERMIAN OIL PRODUCTION CLOSE TO FALLING: CONTINENTAL'S HAMM

  63. 63
    Wayne G Says:

    WMB – Williams Cos upgraded to Buy from Accumulate at Tudor Pickering

    SWN – Southwestern Energy upgraded to Accumulate from Hold at Tudor Pickering based on valuation and near-term catalysts that include non-core asset sales and acquisition of transportation capacity in SW Appalachia.

  64. 64
    Wayne G Says:

    *OIL RIGS WILL NEED TWO YEARS TO RECOVER: CONTINENTAL'S HAMM

  65. 65
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 500 Futures Short Term Levels Of Interest

    Notes –Rejected the major CHVN at 2089. Not yet oversold in dense congestion. Support/CLVN at2445.50 Demand volume and Ease of Movement negative. Sentiment = Extreme Fear.

    Thoughts –  No changes. Endless chop, not yet oversold enough for a high odds bounce.

    2090           CHVN

    2046           Support/CLVN

    2030           CHVN/Dense congestion from 2048 to 2105

    SP500 Futures  (ES)

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/16/es_0

  66. 66
    Zorgnak Says:

    XOP- Balanced trade around major long term acceptance at 49.40. Near support at 48.40. Far support at 45.93.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/16/xop

    Crude Oil –  Continues to build value higher above major long term acceptance at 58. Key short term support at 56.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/16/cl

  67. 67
    Zorgnak Says:

    re #56  Good question. I'll circle back in a bit.

  68. 68
    Zorgnak Says:

     

    $USD-  No changes. 95.90 is major long term acceptance Negative bias below this level ..Lot’s of price/volume gaps to be rechecked below.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/16/dx

  69. 69
    Wayne G Says:

    Kuwait Oil Output Seen by Energy Aspects Falling 40k B/D in May

       Decline m/m was due to closing of Wafra field, Richard Mallinson, analyst at Energy Aspects, says by e-mail on Tuesday. 
    • 3rd party estimates collected by Energy Aspects show decline of 42k b/d to 2.73m b/d for MAY: Energy Aspects report dated June 15
    • All neutral zone output remains offline “which may weigh more heavily on Kuwaiti output in June”

  70. 70
    brodway Says:

    Canaccord Genuity reiterates a Buy rating on Synergy Resources Corporation (NYSE: SYRG), and raised the price target to $15.00 (from $14.00), as SYRG plans to add a second rig in Wattenberg. Analyst Stephen Berman says that production should grow significantly with the increased activity and a greater share of drilling devoted to longer laterals.

    Berman commented, "With ~93K net acres, including ~37K in the core of the Wattenberg Field, SYRG has significant exposure to the one of the best areas of the DJ Basin. We believe the company's experienced management team, enhanced with the recent addition of Lynn Peterson, and a very solid balance sheet nicely position it to exploit its quality asset base."

  71. 71
    RMD Says:

    Hedgeye has a teach-in today on their negative view on energy.  I suppose t will be recappped for the public later.  CHK is the focus stock.

  72. 72
    choices Says:

    Completely OT on a slow day:  Trump is in and hysterical laughter abounds amongst the late night comedians-Jon Stewart threatens to come out of retirement.

  73. 73
    elduque Says:

    From a day trading standpoint, extremely difficult currently because of low volatility and disconnect between crude and the stocks. Normally a no brainer you can just follow along behind. 

    Further compounding the problem is the narrowing of those stocks that funds want to trade. Zorg, can help us out with regards to that. Other than the Permians, PDCE and NFX hard pressed to identify anything else. Even EOG which was for a long time my "canary in the coal mine" hasn't been tracking particularly well. 

    There will be better times, just have to be patient. 

  74. 74
    RB Says:

    re: 73…it isn't just our sector either.  I track the 9 sector etf's as well as OIH, XLE and XOP in terms of relative strength vs. the SPY.  XLF has been the only one showing a lot of relative strength.  many like XLU and XLP have been in clear downtrends.  I would say we are lucky that the Permians are showing strength and that we have a sub section of the sector, with good information, to trade them with.  every time I take a swipe with one of the others, on a trading basis, it seems to end badly.

     

  75. 75
    RB Says:

    it seems to me that if we didn't have the Iranian uncertainty with respect to what kind of supply they might bring over the next two years, it would be much simpler to see this oil market come into balance.  at the moment there are just too many unknowns to feel very comfortable with things.  my gut tells me the Iranians are going to be as untrustworthy with respect to oil concessions as they've been with respect to their involvement in international terrorist funding etc and that there won't be a lot of capital rushing toward their field development, with so many other alternatives available now in safer places…but at the end of the day I just don't know and quite possibly am telling myself what I want to believe.

  76. 76
    Zorgnak Says:

    #56 Re Easiest ZLT stocks to trade? My thoughts on what is "easiest" to trade…… 

     From the charts alone..best for me are the relative strength leaders that have pulled back from recent acceptance to a well defined level of potential support while the stock and group are in an uptrend. 

    Why? Using relative strength, momentum and mean reversion to recent value together put the odds more in my favor from a trading perspective than arguing with the market.  Also, when the group does finally find an uptrend, the relative strength stocks most often lead it higher by breaking beyond previous swing highs.  Here is a current relative strength screen of most of the E&P stocks we follow in order of their 14 day relative strength. I pay attention to this screen and wait for price to come into the defined areas that were previously rejected as unfairly low. You can do that with any basic sort of chart. I find that by noting the confluence of price and volume using the volume profile is the most precise way to define where to pay attention to find the least risk before I have to accept my read is wrong, as often happens. 

    http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=AR,BCEI,AR,CLR,OAS,TPLM,pxd,fang,sn,PVA,MTDR,SWN,EOX,REXX,MRD,NOG,NFX,HK,KOG,CRZO,COG,PE,RSPP,RICE,WLL,AMZG,WPX,EOG,RRC,EXXI,HAL,SSN,BTU,LPI,xop,CPE,WLL&o=-rsi

    I have posted little and traded less since after the first part of the year. I haven't paid much attention to individual stocks.  Expecting to make much money trading individual stocks in a  low relative strength group in a downtrend is a tough row to hoe. Like everyone else, I do best when my trades are bailed out by a rising tide in the group/market, neither which is happening at the moment. Until then, pullbacks to support in high relative strength stocks are the best bet for me. 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  77. 77
    nrgyman Says:

    Uncertainties regarding the Fed, Greece and the big Trade Agreement passage have weighed on the market.  Fear and Greed Index closed yesterday at 25 (Extreme Fear) and the VIX jumped.  Today the markets are reversing some of the recent downward action.  XOP is a market leader and it is not the refiners.  E&Ps (including the natgas names) are in the forefront, following through from the rally off of yesterday's lows (which 'could' be a st double bottom with more follow through).  Some XOP technicals are improving and crude has been feeling comfortable lately in the $60 range.  Don't know if this is tropical storm in the Gulf related activity but some early constructive developments are at work.

  78. 78
    Zorgnak Says:

    XOP-  Positives…held at near support and trading back to long and short term acceptance on good E&P breadth/scattered high volume in high relative strength stocks (RSPP, PE, SYRG). Needs a catalyst to move the needle.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/16/xop_0

    Crude Oil  Seems the most likely catalyst. Still holding on to short term acceptance at 60. Rated as a coin toss…

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/16/cl_0

  79. 79
    RB Says:

    re: 76…there has been a huge accumulation of RSPP over the past month and it is Zorg's relative strength leader.  here is a two hour chart that plots on balance volume for the past month.  the stock pull back down a time or two as on balance volume was pointing up and to the right…probably a lot more juice there if we can get a pullback to buy…here's my chart of the on balance volume and accumulation pattern the past month….https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RSPP&p=120&b=5&g=0&id=p39742170840&a=412542779

  80. 80
    elduque Says:

    RRC and probably a few other stocks, look like they came back down and tested support, when you look at them on a yearly chart. Actually look relatively constructive. 

  81. 81
    Justin Says:

    Any of y'all riding the MHR bus?  Are you sticking with the preferreds?

  82. 82
    RB Says:

    re: 81..that'd be a good one for Eli to field…I think the preferreds  were to his liking…I didn't take any. have pondered the SWNC a lot, but have not as yet bought any 

  83. 83
    RB Says:

    guess it goes with a rally in the group but SYRG is taking above avg. volume today….added bit there

  84. 84
    nrgyman Says:

    XOP just filled the upside closing gap from June 11 at $49.70 and came off of it.  That marks a resistance area, as shown on Zorg's chart in post 78.  

  85. 85
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    SYRG is one of the few E&Ps which is striking out into uncharted territory with their new Greenhorn Play.  That's enough to make it interesting… but if the play proves up (and it may take more than one well to do so… i think management is committed to drilling 3 or 4 or so wells, before they walk away), then that will add more than a few dollars per share to their NAV.  How much?  We'll just have to wait and see.

    But love the fact that Lynn joined the group there.  He is going to use the next year to slowly take over the reins of the company, positioning for several years of growth (before cashing out again). 

    Also, SYRG has the kind of balance sheet and access to capital that will allow them to pick off some tasty assets, should any wander too close.

  86. 86
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    nrgyman — I (somewhat) recently had the opportunity to meet with EGN.  I agree with your assessment of the company and valuation.  So please share any thoughts and comments you have on the name.  thanks!

  87. 87
    Justin Says:

    BOP – you think Gary E out-talked his game?  I think you used to follow MHR a bit.

  88. 88
    tomdavis12 Says:

    81 Justin – MHR common new low never good. I am out of all the prfds C, D, E. Lack of liquidity not a good sign. Would also be interested in any comments from Eli. 

  89. 89
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Justin — I think Gary is back to where he was around the turn of this century… only on a larger scale:  50-50 chance he pulls it off.  That said, Gary has not done what he said he would do for a long time.  He's scrappy.  But I don't trust him. 

    Not a ringing endorsement of the guy… but I think even Eli has washed his hand of Gary Evans. 

    I still own some preferreds.  But not comfortable with the situation.  At all.

  90. 90
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Gary grabbed some good assets… but he got way beyond greedy and leveraged up more and more to grab everything he could.  I am not optimistic here…

  91. 91
    Justin Says:

    Yep, that's what I was thinking.  

  92. 92
    RB Says:

    good to see you in here BOP…kind of hard to keep your dobber up, whatever that is,  nowadays in the oil patch….

  93. 93
    RB Says:

    see Austin Exploration, an Aussie Company, AUNXY is trying to auction their East Tx Eagle Ford acreage where HK is operator….

  94. 94
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 86:  Hi BOP!  Great to see your comments here, as usual.  Some comments on EGN.  They have been investing capex mostly in the Midland (70% this year, where only 33% of their undeveloped reserves are located on 67k stacked acres–2800+ drilling locations), but they hold over 100k acres in the Delaware (with 48% of undeveloped reserves and 2900 locations) and 91k acres in the San Juan Basin targeting the Mancos (17% of undeveloped reserves and 565 locations–widely spaced).  They claim the Mancos returns could compete with the Midland Wolfcamp A and B zones.  Essentially, their Delaware and San Juan assets are wide-open for development and they have barely scratched the potential in each.  I was looking for names that had high leverage to future Delaware development, since that is the area where plenty of capital seems to be heading now, and EGN is one that got my attention.  The balance sheet is under-levered, a real plus.  They may not be growing as fast now as some other names but they have the potential to do so if they choose.  EGN just had a breakout move up and is now consolidating.  I may add more under $72 if it gets there, as it is still cheap on valuation with huge upside imo.

  95. 95
    elduque Says:

    BOP- you are missed. Glad to see you are still alive. Can't believe how badly some of the stocks have been hit, especially when there really is a lot of liquidity around. Banks have more money than they know what to do with. Although, they are all extra cautious. 

  96. 96
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #94 — thank you mucho, for your comments and thoughts, nrgyman.  I love that EGN's permian holdings are pretty much all HBP… so don't have to drill to keep the acreage.  And the Delaware Basin is pretty underdeveloped, as far as infrastructure (just tumbleweeds and hornytoads)… so it's gonna take time and capital to get to those assets.  But that's OK.  Like having a folded wad of Benjamins in your back pocket for a rainy day (or when oil prices creep back up).

  97. 97
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    elduque — beat up… but not beat down.  Still, lots of Hurt in the portfolio.  And — to add insult to injury — so much else is up.  Have a little bit of what is working.  But still a whole lotta energy.

    Love that Lynn went to Synergy. 

  98. 98
    Zorgnak Says:

    re EGN…Echoing nrgyman's comments..72 is the defined level of interest on a pullback

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/16/egn

  99. 99
    james T Says:

    E & P Oscillator for what its worth:  Seems washed out, maybe we get a better number than the API is predicting ? 

    http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=144&mn=150081&pt=msg&mid=15029446

  100. 100
    nrgyman Says:

    SunTrust initiated coverage on the midstream sector, rating 4 names as 'Buys':  KMI, EPD, MWE and RMC.  Both MWE and RMC (RICE Midstream) are heavy in the Utica/Marcellus, where rig count reductions are far less than other locations.

     

    http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/15/06/5599479/7-energy-stocks-suntrust-just-initiated-on

  101. 101
    Baylor Says:

    Anyone have a robry number for Thursday?

    I closed my BOIL position pre-numbers last thursday and added back over the last couple of days.  Have seen a big move up again early this week.  Obviously highly volatile.

  102. 102
    Baylor Says:

    BOP – good to see you posting again.  You must have been super busy lately as I don't believe we've seen you on here in a while.  Welcome back!  Always appreciate your insights.

  103. 103
    nrgyman Says:

    Another 'lower for longer' article, claiming crude oil markets will remain oversupplied well into 2016 due to OPEC members aiming to maximize oil production as fast as they can:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-15/longest-oil-glut-in-decades-looms-as-opec-pumps-up-market-share

     

  104. 104
    Wayne G Says:

     Iran Has No Offshore Oil Stockpiles, IRNA Reports
    (Bloomberg) — Iran has necessary infrastructure to increase sales if sanctions are lifted, state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reports, citing Mohsen Ghamsari, head of intl affairs at state-run National Iranian Oil Co.
    “Claims by foreign media regarding the stockpile of crude oil in tankers is not true. Iran has no stockpiled crude oil on water. Of course, Iran set up the necessary infrastructure/basis for increased oil sale in world markets in the event of sanctions lift”

     

    if true, there goes one bear case

  105. 105
    nrgyman Says:

    EGN:  Issuing shares "to begin a multi-year acceleration of development activities in the Permian Basin in 2016" and for possible leasehold acquisitions.  Shares are trading this AM right at the level where it fills the June 8 closing gap from the recent breakout, around $71.60.  

     http://finance.yahoo.com/news/estockcomnergen-launches-on-m-offering-103000280.html

  106. 106
    RB Says:

    Bloomberg est. is for an injection of 94…ElDuque posts the Robry #'s usually

  107. 107
    RB Says:

    EGN…Bloomberg article says EGN entered swaps over the past week for approx 1.1 million 2016 barrels at Nymex 63.8; added 2.9 million barrel hedge for 2016 at avg. 62.46

  108. 108
    RB Says:

    #107…have a date error…its 1.1 million 2016 barrels; 2.9 million 2015 barrels

  109. 109
    Wayne G Says:

    CXO – Concho Resources Raised to Buy Vs Neutral at Citi. PT to $146 from $125

    RICE – Rice Energy Raised to Neutral Vs Sell at Citi

    WLL – Whiting Petroleum upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi. PT to $46 from $35. 

  110. 110
    james T Says:

    re104-  The thought that IRAN had 38 millions barrels floating and ready to come to the market has kept me out of trouble lately.   I have been on the sidelines for weeks.   

  111. 111
    elduque Says:

    Brent/WTI at 3.7

    TNX at 2.336

    Dollar at 94.8

    BDI at 681 (climbing)

  112. 112
    elduque Says:

    Robry is at 98

  113. 113
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 500 Futures Short Term Levels Of Interest

    Notes –Rejected the major CHVN at 2089. Not yet oversold in dense congestion. Support/CLVN at2445.50 Demand volume and Ease of Movement negative. Sentiment = Fear.

    Thoughts – Back to major acceptance. Endless, edgeless chop in the large cap index.

    2090           CHVN

    2046           Support/CLVN

    2030           CHVN/Dense congestion from 2048 to 2105

    SP500 Futures  (ES)

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/17/es

    XOP- Balanced trade around major long term acceptance at 49.40. Waiting for a catalyst. Watch 50.46 as first test of strength this morning. Near support at 48.40. Far support at 45.93. Far resistance at 56.23.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/17/xop

    Crude Oil –  Continues to build value higher above major long term acceptance at 58. Range expansion/volatility breakout set up with a close above 62. Key short term support at 56.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/17/cl

     

  114. 114
    Zorgnak Says:

    $USD-  No changes. 95.90 is major long term acceptance Negative bias below this level ..Lot’s of price/volume gaps to be rechecked below.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/17/dx

  115. 115
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EGN — well… that explains the "non-deal roadshow" they did a couple of weeks ago. 

    Interesting timing to raise capital…given that the Permian development is going to take years.  I suspect (hope) that the capital is more in anticipation of being able to take advantage of some M&A ops, than to fund the Permian.  That would be a positive.

  116. 116
    RB Says:

    CRZO slides if you care….http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/CRZO/301945444x0x835714/F470CBC7-6365-40F1-955D-BACC96F3B250/6-17-15_TPH_presentation.pdf

  117. 117
    Zorgnak Says:

    REXX  

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/17/rexx

  118. 118
    sc4 Says:

    100  The Sun Trust pieces on EPD and KMI are long but through and insightful. Worth reading if one has an interest in these firms.

  119. 119
    Zorgnak Says:

    XOP   Stopped cold at 50.46.. relative strength is in the laggards so far.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/17/xop_0

  120. 120
    RB Says:

    okey doke..simple minded stuff for a simple minded guy.  is there a back story on why EGN is headquartered in Birmingham Ala…I guess they were once part of a utility and got spun out and continue to headquarter there…. 

  121. 121
    Zorgnak Says:

    REXX having a wild ride this morning..finding sellers at long term acceptance after the big pop… 4.70 offers a level to lean against if looking to add

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/17/rexx_0

  122. 122
    Wayne G Says:

    rexx banana opening… someone wants in..

    asset sale leak? 

  123. 123
    RB Says:

    Baylor…I overlooked your invitation to meet for a drink.  not the drinker I once was but I could perhaps meet you for lunch one day in Las Colinas if you like.  maybe I can sound you out and point you a direction or two that might help you here and elsewhere.  will see how that might be arranged when Z gets back…

  124. 124
    elduque Says:

    RB- be happy to buy you a drink in Maui, as well. 

  125. 125
    Zorgnak Says:

    High relative volume on the open with 2-3X average in many names and in XOP.

    50.46 and 50 are the levels of levels of intra-day interest for me in XOP. 

    XOP

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/17/xop_1

    Volume for time of day charts……….

    Bakken/Permian

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/17/volumes

    Wattenburg/EFS/Others

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/17/volumes_0

  126. 126
    RB Says:

    re: 124…thx ElDuque…we need to make a hike over there..but it's not on our 2015 docket.  don't see how you trade from over there actually…must take very great discipline not to either sleep thru the trading or the day

  127. 127
    elduque Says:

    Go to bed early and have a nap most days. Get about 7 hours sleep a day. 

  128. 128
    elduque Says:

    PVA- market action is changing a little bit. Looks like buyers have found the stock. 

  129. 129
    Plainview Says:

    Does anybody see why GDP is off 12% today? thank you

  130. 130
    james T Says:

    Zorgnak-  Do you think On Balance Volume is a good indicator ?

  131. 131
    RB Says:

    re: 129…I see no news on GDP.  My take is GDP is one that bet heavily on the TMS where a higher price is needed.  It is a highly shorted name, where heavy bets have been made it can't survive.  I hold a good # of shares personally and have been debating whether to dump them and save what I can or just wait to see if some "event or unexpected something" forces oil higher and allow them to survive.  So, my conclusion is people that have held for a long time, at higher prices are giving up and occasionally putting large amounts up for sale and helping the short side of the trade…

  132. 132
    elduque Says:

    Blah no. on crude, model still hasn't rolled over. 

  133. 133
    zman Says:

    EIA Oil Inventories

    Crude down 2.7 mm barrels

      modest drop in utilization (still high)

       400 m bopd bounce in imports (still low)

       Production down 21,000 bopd but all Alaska with L48 up 10,000 bopd week to week

    Gasoline   up 0.5 mm barrels

    Distillates  up 0.1 mm barrels

  134. 134
    Wayne G Says:

    well that gasoline API number and EIA number really off

  135. 135
    Wayne G Says:

    GDP is being removed from the Russell 2000 and added to the Russell Microcap…not sure this is driving it, but a point.

  136. 136
    RB Says:

    this article was cited on briefing as causing some speculation that SWN might be the target of private equity….http://energyplugged.com/2015/06/17/southwestern-energy-on-the-block/

    not much of an article if you ask me, but perhaps it is firming the stock a bit which wouldn't be a bad thing

  137. 137
    zman Says:

    More EIA

    Gasoline demand retreated, it normally bounces around as we head into summer, high highs, higher lows expected. 

    Cushing up 0.1 mm barrels to 58.1 mm barrels, on the dip in Midwest utilization

    Decent set of numbers, remains on trend. 

     

  138. 138
    tomdavis12 Says:

    YTD positive money flows. #1 sector Healthcare #2 Domestic Energy #3 Consumer Discretionary.

  139. 139
    elduque Says:

    Z- are you enjoying the city?

  140. 140
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GDP — presented at TPH's "Hotter 'n' Hell" conference yesterday in Houston.  Guess someone(s) didn't like what they heard….

  141. 141
    sc4 Says:

    GDP as someone said, they are in a relatively high cost area and just when oil dropped in Nov, were looking for a JV partner for that area. The sharp decline in oil prices probably eliminated their chance for now to find a partner which forces them to live by their own devices.

  142. 142
    Baylor Says:

    OT – seems every pop in RCPI should be shorted. 

  143. 143
    Baylor Says:

    OT – RCPI – the extended lifeline – http://investors.rockcreekpharmaceuticals.com/index.php?s=43&item=203

  144. 144
    Zorgnak Says:

    #130  Re Is OBV a good indicator? I don't use it but that doesn't make it right or wrong. I think if an indicator really adds value to your attempt to come up with the most likely technical scenario then it's a good one. In my opinion, OBV's strengths are in basic trend confirmation and occasionally an early sign of directional bias prior to a breakout.  I question whether it's really useful to put all volume in the up or down column based on a minute difference in price each day. It also fails to take into consideration buying and selling spikes, and to my eye that's where the most important inflection points are to be found. Over the years a number of other volume indicators have been developed in an attempt to over come these short comings in the OBV. I use two of them and find them to be more useful, for what I do. 

    Personally, one big mistake I made early and not so early in my trading was to use too many indicators/inputs in my obsession for certainty. All it did was paralyze me with too many conflicting inputs. One useful exercise is to test each indicator with a set of rules, either by it's self, or in conjunction with other indicators on random price data. It is a sobering exercise. 

     

     

  145. 145
    RB Says:

    when I read this lower for longer deals and get glum for whatever reason,  I think about how poorly I was doing in 2005.  I was holding a lot of domestic, land based producing type stuff and I thought I was going to have to just get out of the money mgt biz and go back to being an accountant.  Not to just sit around and stew, I booked this Alaskan cruise and took off in August around the 20th or so.  While I was gone, we had Katrina and by the time I got off that boat all my domestic producers had shot straight up and things got rosy again.  I am not expecting a "black swan" type of bail out here, but oil hasn't the history to just be extrapolated far into the future, using stable projections of supply/demand.  I think for sure, supply/demand will come into balance naturally, but my bet it something or another will come along to upset the apple cart of all these guys that are saying "oil is done"…it's a dead asset class for at least the rest of this decade etc. 

  146. 146
    RB Says:

    re: 130…I echo what Zorg has to say.  I don't go about technical analysis exactly the same way he does.  And as I've gotten older I trade less and hold an income oriented portfolio more.  That said, in the end, you have to learn to read price.  If an indicator helps you do that, you should use it.  But using too many indicators is the mistake most newbies use.  I don't use the same software Zorg uses.  I use stockcharts.com.  they have an indicator that plots volume at a price that shows where the majority of the action has taken place.  that it pretty much what Zorg uses on a different platform.  If you plot, support and resistance levels, and confirm that support/resistance with some type volume indicator I don't think you need much else to trade with, be it long or short term.

    I like to use OBV though and posted a chart yesterday in comment #79 that shows how much OBV had changed on a two hour chart as RSPP was getting moved up around 10%.

     

  147. 147
    elduque Says:

    OT: one of my favorite "pogo" sayings seems appropriate. "when you are in the middle of the swamp, it is hard to remember that your objective is to get to the other side".

  148. 148
    Zorgnak Says:

    OT  Put together a simple mechanical test of OBV using past XOP data as the price series. 

    Rules were to go long when OBV is trending up and sell when it reverses. (3 days of increasing numbers and above the OBV 20 day moving average). Not bad. Seen a lot worse sold for $$.

    Perfomance Data vs Buy and Hold

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/17/test

    Strategy Equity Line Vs Buy and Hold

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/17/test_0

  149. 149
    james T Says:

    re130-  Appreciate the response,  I was just comparing  OBV and Large players (effective volume)   Also added Small and Large players graph.  On RSPP looks like large institutions may not be adding, although the OBV chart sort of matches the small players.   Could it be on RSPP that smaller investors might be more in charge of RSPP volume recently ?

    http://www.chartmill.com/stockcharts.php?ticker=rspp&i1=49&ip1=&months=0&i2=34&ip2=&timeframe=DAILY&i3=46&ip3=&o3=&op3=

    Whereas on PE  it may be large players ?

    http://www.chartmill.com/stockcharts.php?ticker=pe&i1=49&ip1=&months=0&i2=34&ip2=&timeframe=DAILY&i3=46&ip3=&o3=&op3=

     

  150. 150
    Baylor Says:

    OT 147 – when you're going through hell…just keep going.

  151. 151
    james T Says:

    re148- Thanks Zorg as well.  

    I am doing OK.

    Been using the Ease of movement and demand index.

     

  152. 152
    Baylor Says:

    When do we think we should know something about Greece and what do we anticipate the general market reaction to be if 1) they exit, default, etc and 2) they stay in the Euro?

    Greece is such a gnat's ass on the total Euro economy it seems a little silly that it's having that much of an influence, but maybe that's more marketing of the event and would allow us some tradeable opportunities.

  153. 153
    Baylor Says:

    I know not many in here follow the airlines, but they are so tied to fuel and the economy at large, hoepfully this is an appropriate discussion point.

    With Q2 earnings coming up in the July timeframe, does anyone have any thoughts or insights on how this extremely oversold sector may perform? AAL is at about the midrange between 52 week high and low and LUV is within about 25% of it's 52 week low off over 30% from the highs – all of this while oil is in a depression and the broader market is only off marginally. 

    Q2 should yield some insanely profitable numbers, but that will be the past and not the future.  I'm pondering LUV 7/24 $35 calls for $1.

  154. 154
    RB Says:

    #152 Greece…Bloomberg digest I receive says little chance to get anything done on Thurs.  Next opportunity June 25-26.  My best guess is it goes to the 11th hr. and they kick the can down the road so we can stew on it more.  My guess is it matters to some counterparties and that the run on the banks have consequences perhaps to someone financially significant in the system, but to me it is of no importance. 

    The question you ask as to whether it matters of course is time frame dependent.  Default could have market trade crazy for a few days, but it could also provide entry points to positions you covet but don't want to pay up for etc.  I have my shopping list of things I want to own lower than they are now.  I'm in no hurry to buy them.  I figure between now and Nov. 1 somebody will open a trap door and someone will fall in and hand over their shares to me at a better price….be it Greece or something else.

  155. 155
    zman Says:

    Thanks Elduq, RB. At Grouse Mountain now. Have been checking in every hour or so for the last three days. As with the last several past weeks this appears to be more noise. The group is treading water sideways. As is oil.  Today's oil numbers were fine. Most of our trends are moving in the expected direction. The negative stuff I see on longer for lowers just retread stories from weeks and months ago from guys who are expected in immediate reaction lower and oil production in the United States and didn't get it. That's they are misunderstanding of how oil production would fall. Oil is exactly in the middle of the expected near term range we have laid out for months now. Strong stocks what's wrong balance sheets and growing production continue to try it sideways to up While risk balance sheets continue to move lower or sideways. When the Weekly oil production model starts to tip lower prices will start to reflect that this is not currently priced in. For now we wait with good to me and trends in place but elevated storage levels. I'll be back on Friday

  156. 156
    RB Says:

    Airlines…a friend that works for AAL recently bought more of his stock and Delta.  He thinks all the noise out there is just that and that things are ok.  He's no dummy but I haven't bought any stock either. Southwest broke out of a long base pattern in late 2012 and ran all of 2013, 2014 and now has pulled back meaningfully for the first time.  Could it bounce, sure.  Do I think more than that, I doubt it.  I think it needs to correct, wash people out, rebase and then go.  Here's a copy of the overbought chart, showing its multi-year run and first correction….https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LUV&p=W&yr=4&mn=6&dy=3&id=p94513197461&a=412700672

  157. 157
    elduque Says:

    Baylor- thanks for your questions and to all who have responded. I decided to quit trying to trade the market, until we get some mo in a positive direction. For starters it would be nice to see cos end up in the top quartile of their daily range, instead of the bottom.  

  158. 158
    tomdavis12 Says:

    http://www.star-telegram.com/news/business/barnett-shale/article24627469.html

     

    Denton City repeals fraccing ban

  159. 159
    james T Says:

    The dolllar didn't like what yellen had to say  ?

  160. 160
    elduque Says:

    Dollar should find support at 93.20 or so.

  161. 161
    tomdavis12 Says:

    http://www.dallasnews.com/news/metro/20150612-railroad-commission-finds-no-conclusive-evidence-linking-venus-quake-to-oil-and-gas.ece

    No conclusive evidence linkng Texan quake to oi & gas activity.l

  162. 162
    tomdavis12 Says:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/10/usa-harvard-oil-idUSL5N0YV46J20150610

    ​US should ditch outdated ban on oil exports says report from Harvard Business School

  163. 163
    RB Says:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LUV&p=W&yr=4&mn=6&dy=3&id=p04445423571&a=412705122  here is a chart that compares WTI to Southwest Airlines.  When crude oil broke down last July or so, Southwest continued to rally.  When crude oil bottomed and made a higher high, Southwest broke down.  Anytime a company runs two years, and isn't the next big thing, a couple of years is about it. 

  164. 164
    elduque Says:

    Commodities need higher interest rates, not lower. 

  165. 165
    RB Says:

    Zorg discussed the one of trading interest to me, REXX.  The stock traded over a quarter of its "above average" volume today in the first fifteen minutes.  .

  166. 166
    RB Says:

    REXX is trying to pop over a downtrend line and into and above a high volume resistance range it appears to me.  also big option volumes being on this one…

  167. 167
    Baylor Says:

    Thanks RB for the airline thoughts

  168. 168
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 164:  It looks, atm, like the market sees higher US rates in this environment is likely to mean a higher US dollar, which has not been good for commodity prices.  The dollar fall today seems like disappointment that rates are not going higher atm.  The market view of likely interest rate hikes seems to have held the dollar up and commodity equities down.  Longer term, if the global economy gets moving with higher growth then a rate rise would be more than offset by greater growth and demand for commodities, so commodity prices would rise along with rates as you have indicated.  The question is when does this perception of global growth strength, along with strong commodity demand, occur?  It seems we are not quite there yet.

  169. 169
    Zorgnak Says:

    Bakken far and away the relative strength winner today…ans still far and away the most undervalued relative to where they were before the OPEC induced crack in the E&P Group.

    Here's a chart of the four major plays that we follow relative to where they were at the OPEC crack in the E&P group.

    The dashed horizontal green line is the reference line for the Pre OPEC levels for each basin.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/17/test_1

     

  170. 170
    nrgyman Says:

    EGN:  Caught a downgrade from Citi today along with the equity offering, priced around $71.  EGN had a great balance sheet before this offering, but they have decided to accelerate development on their vast Permian holdings over the next few years to grow at a faster rate.  The dilution hurts, but the company is overflowing with liquidity now and has a big runway of promising leasehold, which they might add to with bolt-ons in some areas.  In this environment, it is great to be in a position of strength financially and have a big runway of potentially high return Permian leasehold.  EGN has both, and this deal will allow them to accelerate growth to take advantage of their situation.  Bought more today at $67.80.  

  171. 171
    RB Says:

    re: 169 that's interesting stuff. 

    re: 170 I was going to start a position in EGN and messed around with other things and didn't get my order in.

  172. 172
    james T Says:

    re 169 Nice comparison charts.

     

     

     

     

  173. 173
    Zorgnak Says:

    XOP/Crude Oil Futures Overlay

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/17/xop_2

  174. 174
    Best Plastic Surgeon New Jersey Says:

    Best Plastic Surgeon New Jersey

  175. 175
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 173:  Helpful chart Zorg.  Thanks.

  176. 176
    Zorgnak Says:

    #s171,172 &175….Thanks…

  177. 177
    Wayne G Says:

    Russia’s Novak to Sign Cooperation Pact W/ Saudi Arabia’s Naimi

  178. 178
    PackMan Says:

    HERO (-67.2% pre-market) Hercules Offshore Reaches Restructuring Deal With Noteholders http://stks.co/r2K3l&nbsp;

  179. 179
    james T Says:

    Wayne-  I still think that story you posted yesterday, quote from Iran regarding possibly no floating oil storage was a big news if true ?

  180. 180
    Wayne G Says:

    re 179: if true, it takes a big bear case off the table. Hard to verify and who knows if its comments trying to support prices or ease fears from the market about sanctions being lifted. Saw a few articles on it yesterday, but who knows.

  181. 181
    Wayne G Says:

    Russia’s Novak to Sign Cooperation Pact W/ Saudi Arabia’s Naimi 
       Russia, Saudi Arabia plan to increase energy cooperation, Energy Minister Alexander Novak says at St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, without giving details. 
    • Novak to meet w/ Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi Thursday
    • Novak, counterpart on Russia-Saudi intergovt commission met earlier, discussed possible investment projects covering industries incl. oil-gas, pharmaceuticals, rail, metro

  182. 182
    Wayne G Says:

    *NEWFIELD EXPLORATION RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT STIFEL

  183. 183
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    who let #174 into the Monkey Cage?

  184. 184
    PackMan Says:

    EOX PVA PXD — all continue to trade like death

  185. 185
    sc4 Says:

    Ecofin -Northland capital pumping an eagle ford producer called Lonestar which .Anu insight into Ecofin which owns half the equity. While Northland claims that the yields are the best in the basins, the ROIs even at $70 do not appear that attractive. Value any insights into the deal. tia.

  186. 186
    Wayne G Says:

    re 184: along with A-Z energy company… all out of favor now. Some more then others but just a sector thing for now 

  187. 187
    RB Says:

    REXX I put on some shares to trade and yap about yesterday at 4.96…looks like it needs to take out 5.23 or so to proceed higher….man, I may go back to day trading…Zorg feeds 'em to 'ya if 'ya listen

  188. 188
    nrgyman Says:

    REXX:  Following through on yesterday's move.  Still haven't seen any news that could have prompted this new burst of bullish activity while we wait for catalysts to occur.  Analyst upgrade? Info leaks on upcoming asset sales?

  189. 189
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 500 Futures Short Term Levels Of Interest

    Notes – Attempting to reject major long term acceptance and range expansion. Demand volume weak/improving. Ease of movement positive. Sentiment = Fear.

    Thoughts – Large caps attempting range expansion once again above 2100. Watching small cap futures outperform and breakout to all time highs. Hard to get hurt when this is going on. Putting some demand under the small energy guys?
     

    2100            12 Month Value Area High

     2090           CHVN

    2046           Support/CLVN

    2030           CHVN/Dense congestion from 2048 to 2105

    SP500 Futures  (ES)

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/18/es

    XOP- No changes…Balanced trade continues around major long term acceptance at 49.40. Waiting for the catalyst. Watch 50.46 as first test of strength. Near support at 48.40. Far support at 45.93. Far resistance at 56.23.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/18/xop

  190. 190
    elduque Says:

    Brent/WTI at 3.5

    TNX at 2.34

    Dollar at 93.8

  191. 191
    RB Says:

    bot PXD 144.08 on an old limit order….

  192. 192
    RB Says:

    re: 188…all I saw was a big burst of buying on the open and mention on briefing about the high level of option activity….

  193. 193
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil –  Continues to build value higher above major long term acceptance at 58. Range expansion/ breakout with a close above 62. Key short term support at 56.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/18/cl

    $USD-  ..Stretched to the downside now. Expect oversold bounce to find resistance at or below 94.60 and another fast leg down with a close below 93.65

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/18/dx_0

  194. 194
    choices Says:

    PXD-zorg, if you get a chance, would like to see your chart.  Einhorn must have some followers or sheeple.

    ​thx

  195. 195
    tomdavis12 Says:

    RB  That price for PXD should be a good one. Good Luck. 

  196. 196
    RMD Says:

    sc4   I think you want to lots of DD on Lonestar and its mgt before investing.

  197. 197
    Wayne G Says:

    *EIA SAYS U.S. NATURAL-GAS STOCKPILES ROSE 89 BCF LAST WEEK

  198. 198
    RB Says:

    Baylor…every member of the Transportation index is green today, except LUV and DAL…something afoot with the airlines.  think many have lousy hedge books…oil hedged too high and like I said yesterday, they boomed and boomed and not are under distribution…one exception is ALK..that one keeps on keeping on

  199. 199
    Zorgnak Says:

    REXX  Confluence of long and short term acceptance 5.06-5.15 capping the upside reaction to ?. Likely pause here and wait for whatever catalyst comes next/becomes public. The length and definition of the acceptance area/composite high volume node is remarkable. I expect the break from it will be as well.  

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/18/rexx

  200. 200
    RB Says:

    wow, some "mother frackers" want out of PXD….just like shooting fish in a barrel when the sector is out of favor…no nothing, just crush the moving chart with algos or whatever tool of choice you prefer….

  201. 201
    RB Says:

    re: 199…sure have some nice wide open, green pasture above there if we can push thru eh?  thx for your chart work, you are amazingly like a machine how you put that stuff out…I on the other hand am an emotional wreck, at least part of the time…guess it's a good thing I didn't fly helicopters in NAM

  202. 202
    sc4 Says:

    196  Noted. The numbers did not look that interesting. That said, I thought could benefit from information held by others. Your comment appreciated. sc4

  203. 203
    nrgyman Says:

    CHK:  Traded under $12 after the natgas inventory data was released.  Read an analysis showing their assets (at conservative liquidation values) are worth more than double their debt.  Their Debt/ebitda (ttm) ratio of 2 is better than many other natgas names.  Debt/equity of 83% is not excessive.  Just bought some for a trade at $11.92.  Have a feeling, with activists involved in the name, that something will happen.

  204. 204
    Zorgnak Says:

    #194 Re PXD  Getting stretched below long and short term acceptance (150-153). Approaching 141 is a short term mean reversion setup to my eye with the acceptance area above as the likely upside target. Volume running 1.7X avg for time of day. A washout or rejection of prior acceptance as too high? Hopefully the former….

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/18/pxd

  205. 205
    Baylor Says:

    Re 198 RB – yeah my itchy trigger finger still hasn't squeezed the trigger. Pretty fascinating move down since LUV isn't particularly hedged at the moment and is likely to make 100% more profit this year than last and last year was an all time record by 20% or so. 

  206. 206
    RB Says:

    re:205…it is pulling back to an area of interest to me, which is the lower trend line on this chart.  a lot of things tend to come into play in that area…38% Fib retrace, long-term trend line support etc.  if it doesn't hold there, it has a good bit more to go.  the reason I got interested in technicals is, you read all this stuff and try to make sense of it and at times when a shift occurs it is very misleading…charts don't lie, they are all fact based.  here's the chart…hits that trend line and I will be very long, with a low risk setup….if it doesn't hit the trend line and goes up without me, I will find another setup…https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LUV&p=W&yr=4&mn=6&dy=3&id=p04445423571&a=412702776.

  207. 207
    Wayne G Says:

    OPEC Crude Exports to Slip 60k Bbl/Day This Month: Oil Movements 
       OPEC cargoes, excluding any from Ecuador and Angola, to decline 0.2% to 24.03m b/d in 4 wks to July 4, tanker tracker Oil Movements says in report. 
    • Middle East shipments, incl from non-OPEC nations Oman and Yemen, to fall by 120k b/d to 17.66m b/d in same period
    • Crude on tankers to increase 2.2% to 499.75m bbl in 4 wks to July 4 vs 489.09m bbl in previous period to June 6

  208. 208
    james T Says:

    re206 How about a chart of WTI vs the dollar for the last year, the start of our problems with oil.   

  209. 209
    choices Says:

    PXD-thanks again, zorg-watching how it acts if/when it hits 141-140 area.

  210. 210
    RB Says:

    re: 208…clear 20/20 hindsight, but the chart supports the notion that the devout coward who runs early lives to fight another day…but on the flip side most of these squiggles don't matter until they do….https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=3&id=p25168250400&a=412834457

  211. 211
    Baylor Says:

    Re 206 RB, is the $33.46 trend line the one you're talking about?  Certainly the move up in oil has hurt the airlines, but jet fuel is based off Brent which is still down almost half from the peak. 

    Planes are full at historic levels for LUV and fare revenue seems to still be holding up. Something is t adding up. What are we missing?  P/e is 16 and will be below 15 a these prices with forward PE fwiw being below 10. Canary in coal mine or big opportunity to make 10-20% in stock or more on options?

  212. 212
    RB Says:

    re: 211…you are looking at the right trend line…33.46 or 33.48 is the current price.  the trend line is below $32.  technical analysis is a short cut developed to help little guys piggy back off of information the pubic doesn't know but that is reflected in the chart.  you are 100% correcto that what the chart displays does not square with public knowledge and for that matter what one of my friends, a mid-level exec at AAL believes.  So, the question is do you want to believe.  Do you want to believe the chart that is telling you the stock got way ahead of its trend and may or may not pullback and stop below $32, or do you want to believe what you heart is telling you.  I have no idea, but as an old man I can tell you I've made a lot more money being respectful of the charts than I have using what I believe from reading other sources.  Something has been afoot and all rail and air transports have been weak.  usually the chart is right and more will be revealed to you later.  BUT if you want to put on an option trade, be my guest.  LUV reports around July 23rd…so my thought is there is no hurry and wait on the chart to reverse or hit the trend line…

  213. 213
    RB Says:

    re: 210..I added a note to my chart highlighting the "turkey day massacre"….I think one can blame whatever.  Certainly the dollar had its impact, the OPEC decision to not adjust production to meet seasonal demand started about the same time as the dollar took off as well.  And then the Turkey Day massacre occurred as well.  We had the trifecta of all taht could go wrong occur simultaneously.  That's as bad as it gets.  My guess is, if we are patient, Z and BOP will find us the smallish up and comers that will emerge from the rubble and we can once again dance naked around the campfire.  And man at my age, I am a sight to behold dancing, be it naked or in full gear!  Best of luck

  214. 214
    Wayne G Says:

    *RUSSIA, SAUDI ARABIA INTERESTED IN EXPANDING COOPERATION: NOVAK

    *RUSSIA, SAUDI INTERGOVT GROUP TO MEET IN OCT, FIRST TIME 5 YRS

  215. 215
    elduque Says:

    re 213- don't forget Russia and the Crimea for correlation. 

     

  216. 216
    james T Says:

    Has our administration said one word about the jobs lost in the oil industry ?   Silence is deafening.

  217. 217
    Zorgnak Says:

    Very OT #201   Nah….I'm just as impulsive and emotional as the next gambler. As for flying choppers in Vietnam, I turned 21 years old while there, just a kid, feeling immortal, on a great adventure.

    As for being machine-like, I really am just doing/saying the same thing over and over, framing the chart from a volume profile perspective as best I know how and then creating a scenario or two or three and then seeing if the market agrees or not with my narrative. The obvious scenario to my eye now is the ongoing balanced trade waiting for a catalyst to drive prices out of balance and into a trend in pursuit of the next level where buyers and sellers come into agreement more or less. This is the most difficult/risky and least rewarding technical setup for me. 

    If the scenario is for the group to move much higher, how to I measure how it's doing at that? Right now I'm watching for confirmation of that scenario with a close of the front month crude futures above 61

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/18/cl_0

    and then XOP would have to respond with a break above 50.46. Additionally I'd like to see the high relative strength stocks take out recent resistance levels and laggards break from their long term bases….

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/18/xop_0

    That's a lot….and I don't see any of it yet..but it's moving more in that direction than not……atm

  218. 218
    Wayne G Says:

    Al-Naimi Says Saudi Ready to Increase Output if Demand Rises 
       
    Naimi Says Saudi Arabia Has 1.5M-2M B/D Spare Capacity

  219. 219
    PackMan Says:

    186 – PE NFX CRZO SYRG RSPP to name a few that show decent strength as opposed to those that go down every day

  220. 220
    PackMan Says:

    187 188 – 2 answers:

    1. Why did it drop past week or so ?

    2. Options Expiration / $5 strike

  221. 221
    Zorgnak Says:

    EGN   Putting on an exhibition of accepted value acting on price… note price returning to previous value in all three time frames…long term, short/wing and day trade. Best trade setups for me are when price is stretched below value to a defined level, with an underlying uptrend. 67 or so was that level for today. It didn't have to get all the way to 67 but at least I had a level to measure risk and size the trade if I decided to take it. I didn't. Got enough balls in the air already.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2015/06/18/egn

  222. 222
    nrgyman Says:

      RE 221:  Thanks for the EGN chart, Zorg.

  223. 223
    james T Says:

    re-210 Thanks for the chart,  I was out for a while, walking dog etc.

    ​Another relationship chart like the Airlines and Oil.   

  224. 224
    Justin Says:

    RE 216 

    But the POTUS said "thank you" when folks applauded his comment re lower gas prices.  

  225. 225
    Wayne G Says:

    *NAIMI SAYS OIL PRICES TO IMPROVE IN COMING MONTHS: SPA

    *NAIMI SAYS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT OIL MARKET IN COMING MONTHS: SPA

    *NAIMI SAYS OIL MARKET TO IMPROVE, DEMAND TO RISE: SPA

    *NAIMI EXPECTS COMMERCIAL OIL STOCKS TO FALL: SPA

  226. 226
    Wayne G Says:

    *NAIMI SAYS HE IS HAPPY ABOUT NEW OIL AGREEMENT WITH RUSSIA: SPA

    *NAIMI SAYS SAUDI-RUSSIAN AGREEMENT TO CREATE OIL ALLIANCE: SPA

  227. 227
    RB Says:

    re: 216 I pay little attn. to politics.  but I suspect he took credit for the jobs that were created, the oil that was found etc.  it's a fools game expecting anything from politics you can't pay for….and since I'm no billionaire I just expect the S to roll down hill.  sometimes it comes from the left and after we get sick of them it will come from the right

  228. 228
    RB Says:

    Baylor, Wed. June 10 IBD story.  Southwest Fares Pressured.  The budget airline narrowed '16 capacity growth to 6%, down from 6-7%.  It sees Q3 revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) falling 4-5% vs a year ago.  Southwests' may traffic rose 8..5%, with capacity up 7.6%.  Shares fell f.2% to 34.50.  American Airlines May traffic rose less than capacity grew.  So, my buddy at AAL thinks this is noise and a buddy at LUV does too.  But in my experience when a chart is in a downtrend and this one has been for a while, it is best to find trendline support, FIB support or a trend reversal before you go risking your money….that's just me.  I've won a few more than I've lost, but I wish I hadn't played so many.  there aren't as many good trades out there as all the yappers make one think.

  229. 229
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    RB — gots to say… you make one HECK of a Good Moderator while z is away.  I am thoroughly enjoying reading through your various musings.  Thank you.

    signed, A Fan!

  230. 230
    RB Says:

    re:229…you 'da best man. these people love it when you share your insights.   I am just an old man, that likes to bet the ponies, play with my dogs and flirt with the girls. 

  231. 231
    james T Says:

    Baylor-  roughly 2 day chart of Large players( HFT ) and small players ( you, me )

    on LUV:  Who is in control of the stock price ?  red line or blue line ?

    http://www.chartmill.com/stockcharts.php?ticker=luv&i1=46&ip1=&months=0&i2=&ip2=&timeframe=MIN_5&i3=&ip3=&o2=&op2=&o3=&op3=

  232. 232
    RB Says:

    re: 231…interesting presentation.  I suppose the large players are identified by share size etc.

  233. 233
    RB Says:

    just heard from Z…he's eager to get back here and take over the asylum.  Thx to all who've shared in here this week.  the job the man does in here, to deal with all the individual needs and egos is incredible in its proportion.  I get a bit aggressive on here sometimes when I think some of us expect a little too much for $39 a month.  So, to any I've offended and I have to say at the time I probably intended to, I apologize.  it's a good group in here and there will be a time when the sector turns up in relative strength.  it's really hard to jump on quick enough when that happens, but the biggest part of the money is made by either buying before the turn and having the fortitude to stick with it, or being nimble enough and open minded enough to recognize the turn, or sign of it and jumping with both feet.  Best of luck to all…look forward to the man coming back.  Tonite I am going to celebrate that coming about by going out to Lone Star, riling up my buddies any way that I can and hopefully betting on a few winners.  See 'ya around tomorrow…I'm calling it "giddy up" thirty….

  234. 234
    elduque Says:

    Stocks continue to fade, for the most part, to the bottom of the daily range.

  235. 235
    elduque Says:

    Thanks RB

  236. 236
    Wayne G Says:

    U.S. Fuel Consumption Highest for May in Seven Years, API Says
       Low gasoline prices pushed total petroleum deliveries up 5.4% from yr earlier to 19.5m b/d, industry-funded group says in monthly report. 
    • Gasoline demand up 2.5% to 9.24m b/d
    • Jet-fuel demand up 12% to 1.57m b/d
    • Distillate use up 4.5% to 4.11m b/d
    • Crude production up 11% to 9.55m b/d, highest for any month since May 1972

  237. 237
    Wayne G Says:

    Schultze Asset Mgmt Shorts ANR, PXD: 
    — Schultze Asset Management shorted Alpha Natural among coal stocks, Pioneer Natural in O&G sector, Bloomberg Brief writes, citing CEO George Schultze.
    Says ANR likely to file for bankruptcy within a yr or less; PXD likely won’t go to zero, although will drop significantly
    Says equity shorts represent ~20% of book; may grow to be 30%-35% in next few mos.
    Rig operators also seem to be at substantial risk for potential bankruptcy, along with other cos. that service the industry
    ANR short interest 17% of float, PXD 2.6% as of yday: Markit data

  238. 238
    RB Says:

    re: 237..thx for posting that and many other insights.  to my eye, oil is now in an uptrend.  a precarious one no doubt, but it has made a higher high against a backdrop of ongoing negativity.  we could reverse and go back in a downtrend, but the dollar is no longer the headwind it was and it just seems to me that things are getting better. 

    will be interesting to see what actually comes of this Russia/Saudi affilitation.  that caught my attn. when you posted it but I didn't comment.

    now it is for sure "giddy-up thirty"…got my racing form, raided the wife's bank account and I'm off!!!!!

  239. 239
    james T Says:

    re232-   Calculations based on every single transaction, cumulative volume and direction of each transaction I believe.   A couple days ago when everyone was excited about SYRG moving up the large players were starting to sell.  If a stock has a strong move over several days up, it might help signal time to take a profit.  Sometimes I use it to prevent me from buying a falling stock until the large players stop selling.  I kept waiting on PVA, and it kept pulling back.   Trouble is you still don't know why they are selling.  Although I have Zorknak's somewhat foolproof Demand Index and Ease of Movement on my trading Screen. 

    http://www.chartmill.com/stockcharts.php?ticker=syrg&i1=46&ip1=&months=0&i2=&ip2=&timeframe=MIN_5&i3=&ip3=&o2=&op2=&o3=&op3=

     

  240. 240
    Wayne G Says:

    re 238: no prob. I have a buddy who worked for him years ago. I just IB him – direct quote "the guy is a total joke" went bust a few years ago. Just saw the PXD chatter and figure i would share

  241. 241
    Wayne G Says:

    *REX ENERGY REPORTS SALE OF KEYSTONE CLEARWATER SOLUTIONS

    *AMERICAN WATER SAYS DEAL VALUES KEYSTONE AT $130M

  242. 242
    Wayne G Says:

    *REX ENERGY SEES NET PROCEEDS ABOUT $66M

    *REX ENERGY SAYS HOLDS 60% INTEREST IN WATER SOLUTIONS

  243. 243
    Zorgnak Says:

    #241 thanks….do you think this will move the needle on REXX much?

  244. 244
    zman Says:

    re 241 – there's the as promised by the end of June 30 monetization. Proceeds are in the expected range of $60 to $80 mm net.  Will be interesting to see how the stock reacts as someone was buying pre announcement this week. Other asset sales in the hopper are likely more late year deals. 

  245. 245
    Wayne G Says:

    re 244, someone buying but stock still under 5.. hope its taken well

  246. 246
    zman Says:

    re 243 – it's a promise that management delivered on time and on $.  The Moraine East wells were as well but the stock sold off on those due to a lack of this news item. I'm not in this for the short term and I didn't get my trade off last week but really the short term stuff isn't really my primary focus. But it goes to credibility and it helps with the leverage. And it's probably not the last asset monetization of the year although the next two are likely later this year type events.  If they sell it off in the morning I'd be pleased. If they rally it I'm probably more pleased as sentiment isn't broken completely (despite the ever spiraling higher volumes and the similar downward drop in capex). If they do dip it, I'll likely add it to the ZMT. If they don't, I'll be pleased to let this sizable gassy position for us run a bit.  The fear here remains leverage and low commodity prices. The leverage covenants have been taken care of, there is no near term debt maturity and this will wipe the revolver clean. More in the morning.

  247. 247
    Zorgnak Says:

    #246  Thanks a lot..filled in the story nicely

  248. 248
    zman Says:

    re 247 – you're welcome, nice change of pace from being a Sherpa all week. 

  249. 249
    Baylor Says:

    Welcome back Z. RB filled in nicely. As deputy, if he had a bullet in his shirt pocket, he didn't need it. 

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