25
May

Wrap – Week Ended 5/22/15

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Questions and comments will be addressed in the Monday post. 

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wrap 052215

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16 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 5/22/15”

  1. 1
    DaveH Says:

    I ran across the following article on political changes in Saudi Arabia.   Given SA's actions and statements on the price of oil, this could have some significant effect on E&P companies.   I don't know enough to predict anything but the information is something to consider.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-24/saudi-politics-blamed-as-market-asks-where-did-all-the-sukuk-go-?cmpid=yhoo

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    re 1 – thanks Dave, will have a look. 

    Canada blaze shuts 9% of Alberta crude output. 

  3. 3
    Ray Ganssle Says:

    From bloomberg.com:

     

    South Sudan Oil Field Becomes Key Battleground as Economy Reels

     

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-25/south-sudan-oil-field-becomes-key-battleground-as-economy-reels

     

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    re 3 – thanks, another mess in MENA. 

  5. 5
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Warren Zevon, 1982

    http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/warrenzevon/theenvoy.html

  6. 6
    brodway Says:

    re: 5

    ..its like a long running circus act….the ring remains the same, just the clowns change

  7. 7
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    clowns intent on getting nuclear weapons… sigh…

  8. 8
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    hey, saw that nrgyman mentioned EGN on Friday… i'll second that.   Had lunch with the CEO the other day… stock seems cheap (maybe people still think it's part of a utility)

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    re 8 – yeah, well they do report like a utility, might be masking something.

  10. 10
    Baylor Says:

    Any thoughts from anyone on my post 78 in Fridays comments re PVA?  

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    re 10 – I saw it, was going to respond tomorrow but really no, nothing different. All options for funding outspend remain on the table including equity. I don't see a big fear of big deal as nearly everyone did one in the spring and the few names that didn't were punished for not joining the party which is silly but that's the kind of environment we are in. 

  12. 12
    RMD Says:

    I heard EGN mgt were suprised at ROSE valuation for Del. Basin assets.  Apparently END is selling some Del. assets and if high prices persist they might punt hteir Del. Basin at those values.  Just fwiw.

  13. 13
    Baylor Says:

    Thx z.  Tomorrow was fine. I just logged on and saw some folks posting so figured I'd throw it out there. 

     

    Btw i I know articles like this don't get much play around here, but as I ponder the macro impact on my E&P portfolio and the losses incurred in the past 10 months, it's hard not to consider now or the next 12-18 months would be a horrible time for te z portfolio for a correction in the broader market. 

    Anyone spend time considering the possibilities mentioned in this article and how would you prepare?  Just ride it out?

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-crash-of-2016-the-countdown-begins-2015-02-25?link=mw_home_kiosk

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    re 12 – thanks for the color. 

    re 13 – OK. And you're right, I don't spend any time on that kind of thing. That's just not what I do. But the assumption that it would be, necessarily bad for our sector, a sector that's already had a pullback, is not necessarily correct. Often lagging sectors get propped up through that kind of thing. If however it were to be down by that, with how I see the macro, that would be something that prompts me to bring in cash off the sidelines. But mostly I see those articles as headline grabbing flotsam. 

  15. 15
    Baylor Says:

    Understood and agreed. Eventually they will be right but so is a broken watch. I generally find myself wondering if we'll have the opportunities our fathers did with the expansion of the welfare state and a debt which will never go away. 

    I leave those challenges to those smarter than I but it's hard not to think our investments wont be effected. Seems it already has affected the market as we've jus lived through one of the worst performing 15 years of the stock market in its history. That, however, could indicate great things may be onthe  horizon.

     

    4% per year since 1999 is pretty pathetic though. 

  16. 16
    Baylor Says:

    But yes, those articles are largely click bait

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