24
Mar

Spring Break

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Market sentiment watch: Spring Break.

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Just a placeholder post today as we are well away from the markets at the moment. It would be a big help if you note news on any of our names in the comments section as I'm traveling without my trading platform and am more thank likely to miss things. Links to news stories would be greatly appreciated as well.

Other items

HSBC China PMI came in light of expectations hitting an 8 month low; so little to no reaction from the equity markets or oil.

Ukraine ordered withdrawal of its troops from Crimea this morning.

Oil prices look calm this morning. Libya protests continue. In the U.S. we look for an uptick in refinery demand with this Wednesday's report. Imports could be impacted next week due to the spill in the HSC. Oil is trading up slightly and just below $100 early this morning.

Natural gas is trading flat to slightly up this morning. We probably have between 1 and 3 more smaller withdrawals to close out the season but as some of noted, March's coldness doesn't really want to give up its grip just yet and its 28 in D.C. this morning with snow due tomorrrow.

PTEN warned on Friday over idle frac crews in Appalachia in 1Q14 due to weather that will hit margins. Not a big surprise but you may see more comments soon from area E&Ps regarding slowed completions.

We're expecting a pr from RSPP soon regarding year end results.

ATHL pulled out of the Howard Weil conference this week. We suspect another acquisition is in the offing. Liquidity is fine but if the package is big enough they could be looking at a secondary.

We're expecting increased news flow from the group in general this week as companies drop late quarter operations updates as they speak at the Weil conference. No webcasts as usual from Weil by the way.

Look for one TMS well (maybe two) from GDP this week.

We will be doing some portfolio rebalancing next week.

Next week we will have update gassy players and WIOWiO pieces

87 Responses to “Spring Break”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    I'll be checking in periodically through out the day.  Have a great one. 

  2. 2
    RB Says:

    GDP on the tape with well updates…CMR 24 hour avg. rage 950 BOE…Weyerhauser flowing back…rates not yet published but not expected to be quite as good…I'm encouraged…

  3. 3
    RB Says:

    have a great holiday ZMAN…the mice will play while you are away…

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the GDP heads up RB. That's solid on the CMR well, not really surprising on the Weyerhaeuser well. Good to see the next one on the roster get to TD fairly quickly. 

  5. 5
    skimo Says:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/inplay-briefing-com-055139997.html#nog NOG share repurchase

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Short Term Areas of Interest  3/23, 6:48AM ES 1857.25/ SPY Levels in ()

    Notes…… Range bound trading between the 1829.50 CHVN and 1877 .75 ATHs. 1824.75 Major CHVN. Demand volume positive/negative divergence. Ease of movement positive. Breadth trend positive. Nasdaq/High growth distribution. Relative strength in financials. Semis. Long term up trend intact.

    Thoughts …….  Expecting continued choppy, range bound, mean reversion trading between 1829.50 and 1864.50 with a test back to the 1825-35 CHVN area. Far support at 1800 CLVN.

    1877.75             ATH 1877.75

    1868                  CLVN/Resistance

    1864.50           CHVN/Minor Acceptance(187.74)

    1825-35           Major Acceptance/CHVN(184.66)

    1800                 CLVN/Support

     

    SP500 Futures  

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/24/es_master_140324053438

    SPY  

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/24/stock_master390_140324054036

  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    Oil Producer Index 

    Daily    

     http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/23/oil_producer_index

    Oil Producer Weekly

      http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/23/oil_producer_index_weekly

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    Bakken Index

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/23/bakken_index

    Permian Index

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/23/permian_index

  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas Producer Index

    Daily   http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/23/nat_gas_producer_index

    Weekly    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/23/natural_gas_weekly

  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    ATHL… At support

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/23/stock_master390_140323165330

  11. 11
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Zorg:  Welcome back.

  12. 12
    Dedwards Says:

    As expected JONE issuing $300M of HY debt – will be used to repay the$160M second lien note and the balance will pay down the revolver, which at year end was $385M at year end => We should look for a couple of things here 1) Possibly another midcon deal 2) Clarity surrounding well design/capital plan 3) Updated/expanded 2014 capital plan.  

    The PR was light on note terms.  http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1573166/000104746914002824/a2219252zex-99_1.htm

  13. 13
    Dedwards Says:

    Re 12 – sorry, about $500M drawn on the revolver at year end

  14. 14
    elduque Says:

    Brent/WTI at 7.1 

    TNX at 2.76

     

  15. 15
    brodway Says:

    Zorg…

    welcome back…..glad to have you back…

  16. 16
    Zorgnak Says:

    #11  thanks Tom….

  17. 17
    Zorgnak Says:

    #15…thanks….brain still mostly MIA…feels kinda nice

  18. 18
    tomdavis12 Says:

    LINE/LNCO downgrades by JPMorgan

  19. 19
    brodway Says:

    Zorg…just in case you missed a few names breaking to higher levels late last week….namely NFX, PVA, PDCE, GPOR, ROSE, RSPP, SWN, EOG….briefing you in on some items you may have missed.

  20. 20
    brodway Says:

    re: 5

    the general outlook in the NOG investment thesis is going to improve going forward…seeing continued stock buy back, better/more professional tone to Reger's presentation and response are all positive in my opinion….stock is so cheap and so shorted down here, that it's not going to take much to get it up from here…the company needs to have a few good quarters and it would not surprise me to see a double from here.

  21. 21
    RB Says:

    WPX is doing nicely for a ship with no captain of late….

  22. 22
    brodway Says:

    re: 21

    WPX removal it from the S&P list actually gave it some life….not sure why…

  23. 23
    Zorgnak Says:

    #19 Thank you…

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Zorg  – welcome back

    re WPX – I think the CFO quitting is helping. Time to get past the transition team. 

  25. 25
    brodway Says:

    BCEI down 5%…is that due to some executive retirements or does anyone see more news that would trigger this sell off

  26. 26
    nrgyman Says:

    BCEI selling off early.  Couple of exec retirements.  Can't find anything else.

     

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bonanza-creek-energy-inc-announces-120201751.html

     

     

  27. 27
    nrgyman Says:

    NOG's  Reger  and NFX Boothby both on Mad Money tonight.

  28. 28
    RB Says:

    re: 27…now that's interesting…politically positivefor Reger to go on Cramers show I suppose…most likely difficult though I'd think after all the hatchet stuff he and his gal friend did eh?

     

  29. 29
    Zorgnak Says:

    BCEI   44.64  Support

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/24/stock_master390_140324070529

  30. 30
    brodway Says:

    Nrgyman…

    thanks for the heads up….would be interesting to see what is rumored to be Reger's more polished appearance on Mad Money…..if i recall correctly…and this could have happened 2 years ago, Zman had Cramer look at NOG and i think his response was less than enthusiastic….perhaps he is revisiting this position….it doesn't hurt the crowds follow into your investments…

  31. 31
    brodway Says:

    Zorg…

    was interested in your view on COG….i'm seeing long term support at 32 handle…do you see something different?

  32. 32
    Mark Wetzler Says:

    BCEI  RayJa downgrade to mkt perform

  33. 33
    nrgyman Says:

    BCEI:  Three key execs 'suddenly' retire in the past 3 months has some holders selling first on the theory that something is wrong at the company. 

  34. 34
    nrgyman Says:

    OAS:  reversing all of Friday's last hour 'noise'.

  35. 35
    RB Says:

    OT Nasdaq down almost 1%…Russel down about the same…bios continue to get crushed…so it seems risk off is the game today….

  36. 36
    brodway Says:

    re; 33

    Nrgyman….not sure if this means something is wrong or they are getting ready to be sold to a larger entity that won't necessarily require their services.

  37. 37
    brodway Says:

    GST has got be the nuttiest stock i've seen is some time….stock exploded back to $6 after so so report and right back down towards the $5 mark….not sure how to trade it here, other than to watch and see where it stops.

  38. 38
    brodway Says:

    re: BCEI

    both Grove and Graham are 53, so i'm still scratching my head about their anticipated retirement plans…

  39. 39
    brodway Says:

    HAL continues to show its strong ways….probably the best support i've seen there in years….accumulation in progress

  40. 40
    Dedwards Says:

    Re 37 – GST has traded like a penny stock as long as I've held it fwiw

  41. 41
    brodway Says:

    BCEI looks like its going to tap that 44 mark sooner than later Zorg….maybe a short term retest after a healthy rise from 37 recently….interesting to see what is cooking there.

  42. 42
    Dedwards Says:

    Gold looks like Yellen going to slap the rate hike button any moment

    Zorg, do you by chance have levels for MHR on hand?

  43. 43
    Zorgnak Says:

    #31  RE COG….Seeing 32.24 as a level of high interest…..Failure to hold there has potential to move to 28 in a hurry as there is a ton of supply going all the way back to March going more under water by the day…If 32.24 holds then I see long term acceptance at 35 as the likely upside target and then sideways from there…Watching how it's treated around 32….

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/24/stock_master390_140324080908

  44. 44
    brodway Says:

    re: 43

    thanks for the confirmation….i've been waiting to add at 32….so i'm taking a piece here…if it moves to 28 will add more there…

  45. 45
    Zorgnak Says:

    #41 Re   MHR   Support getting tested today….I can see a test of the low 7s coming up, far support at 6.35 if it trades below 7.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/24/stock_master390_140324081635

  46. 46
    choices Says:

    Just throwing this out there FWIW:  Zeits has an article on SA,  Tom Ward purchased 600,000 acres from Shell in Mississippi Lime, amt not disclosed-Ward purchased thru his private company, Tapstone Energy; personally, I would not touch anything Ward had any association with, judging by the comments on the article, just about every comment reflects the same sentiments.

  47. 47
    brodway Says:

    OAS seems to be finding support at low 40 handle….stock has retested this area numerous times 

  48. 48
    choices Says:

    zorg, how is your Spanish? welcome back.

  49. 49
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Zorg: OAS – I show $42.28 (daily) and $43.21 (weekly) 50day moving. Which do you think is the more important resistance level?  Thanks.  

  50. 50
    nrgyman Says:

    BCEI:  Retraced 50% of the move from the early Feb bottom to the 50 dma, from which it is bouncing a little.  The recent 3 executive flight there is curious, if not concerning.

  51. 51
    elduque Says:

    GDP- market wanted more out of the new wells. Patience, Patience, Patience

  52. 52
    brodway Says:

    REXX again finding support at the mid 16 range…another one that has been bouncing along this area for months now.

  53. 53
    Zorgnak Says:

    #49  Re  OAS…  Of the two levels you mentioned I'd give more weight to the higher one (43.21). You can see on the volume profile chart that there is long and short term congestion/supply at the 43.78 level that sold off on increasing volume. There is a defined low volume/rejection level at 45.22 that looks to be key resistance above that on any rally. 41.27 is current acceptance with 39.95 CLVN as far support, to my eye…

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/24/stock_master390_140324084007

  54. 54
    Zorgnak Says:

    #48 gracias. Por la espanol…es muy malo

  55. 55
    brodway Says:

    re: 54

    Hey that's not bad for a gringo 🙂

  56. 56
    choices Says:

    gracias, entender.

  57. 57
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Veresen's Jordan Cove just got DOE approval for their LNG export terminal in Oregon.  Now just need U.S. FERC approval.

    Good news for VSN CN.  Stock halted.

  58. 58
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GDP — thought the news on the two TMS wells was pretty positive.  Not "wildly positive," but positive.  Things moving in the right direction there.  People forget how long it took the industry to "crack the code" and get well costs down in the Bakken and TFS.

  59. 59
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 51:  Nice reversal in GDP today in a negative tape.  Market looking for positive data points to complete the picture of a new economic play.  The report today provides another one.  Don't think it will take many more to get a larger group of bandwagon jumpers. 

  60. 60
    RB Says:

    re: 58…me too; very pleased with the trend over there and that the wells using the diff. type/style frac plugs are completing better

  61. 61
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Speaking of the Bakken… a professional investor friend made an interesting observation about GST.  Even though he owns the stock (GST), he pointed out that Lynn (at KOG) moved very cautiously and drilled 11 Bakken wells on the FBIR before drilling his first non-economic well.  He thinks Russ is moving to aggressively to try to prove up all his Hunton acreage.  GST might be better served by drilling a few wells next to each other, in order to earn their wings, before flying off to various farther-flung parts of the play.

    That said, if the first 3 wells would have been successful, stock price would be a lot higher today.  Just gonna have to take some more time (and experience)… until then, it does trade like a wild and wooly creature!

  62. 62
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 57:  Interesting that the plan is to send mostly western Canada natgas to this site for export.  Not sure if US Rockies natgas providers will be able to capitalize on this.  If so, it would help UPL and WPX, among others.  ECA might be a beneficiary as a western Canadian natgas producer.

  63. 63
    elduque Says:

    BOP- it is good to hear from you. I like the idea of playing the TMS with a little more HK and a little less GDP. Seems a little less risky. 

  64. 64
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    elduque — agree with your statement.  HK has more "play diversification," so less dependent on the TMS working out than GDP.  I own some of both, fwiw.

  65. 65
    Dedwards Says:

    Here's a semi-serious question: When will HK sell their Trumbull County OH acreage to American Energy Partners?

  66. 66
    Zorgnak Says:

    ECA  Top of long term volume base

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/24/stock_master390_140324095231

    Weekly

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/24/stock_master390_140324095441

  67. 67
    Zorgnak Says:

    SYRG   Support at 10

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/24/stock_master390_140324100326

  68. 68
    Zorgnak Says:

    PXD   Rejecting 184.94, long term acceptance as too high on higher than avg volume for time of day…Reminds me of something Tom was saying last week to not being surprised to see money moving away from Permian names.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/24/stock_master390_140324100601

  69. 69
    Aaron Says:

    BOP- since it is slow..  any report from the stsi conference?  

  70. 70
    nrgyman Says:

    AR and RICE bucking the downtrend today. 

  71. 71
    elduque Says:

    GDP- moving up nicely

  72. 72
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Hi Aaron — funny… just got off the phone with STSI's new Strategy/Communications guy, Ted Jenkins.  Due to some conflicts, I was unable to attend in person last Thursday, but sat through the presentation in real time.  Ted called just to see if i had any follow up comments/questions.  This is a complete 180 from the secrecy of the prior management team.  I love it.

    There is so much I could say about how positive I felt, post-investor day presentation.  But a fellow investor (who has followed/invested in the biotech space for over 20 yrs) said it best in an email he sent this weekend.  Here is what he wrote:

    ===========================================================

    I just listened to the replay of the webcast. On many different levels that was a most excellent partial review of the wonderful science Star has discovered by accident. The opportunities for multiple drugs and treatments for some of the most untreated and undertreated human ailments has never before been present in one discovery, imo. There may be as many as 20 or more blockbuster drugs in Anatabine citrate and it's isomers.

    MY prediction is there will be some the company will pursue, some the company will Joint Venture with BIG PHARMA, and some that will be licensed out.

    And best of all, humanity will be the main beneficiary.

  73. 73
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    OT:  STSI — Ted said that the most asked question was:  "where you gonna get the financing to take this to its endpoint?"  That is the ONE question that I don't have to ask.  If the stuff works (as we know it does) and the company is able to execute on its business strategy (which we think they will), raising additional capital (at better pricing) will not be a problem.  And we are on a much shorter time-line than most people think.  We should know exactly what we have by the end of this year… and we will have an idea of what it is worth by Summer 2015.  That is pretty fast, in biotech land… and will be accomplished for a lot (lot!) less money than most people think.

    This doesn't mean the stock will just sit still (down here) until Summer 2015… it should start to move up, after STSI files their IND with the FDA.

    Just my thoughts…

  74. 74
    RB Says:

    thx BOP…I own a little STSI…

  75. 75
    elduque Says:

    Robry -59

  76. 76
    crysball Says:

    OT 

    BOP re  RSO……………They issued some    apparently   disturbing  financials.

    Are  you   still  in…………….have  you taken  a look  @ RSO  of late?

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    Re 70 and RSPP

    re Robry , thanks

  78. 78
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    OT:  crys… i am still long RSO.  I'll get back to you with thoughts.

  79. 79
    Aaron Says:

    thanks BOP .. much appreciated… 

  80. 80
    Pati Says:

    OT:  STSI — BOP, do you have any thoughts regarding STSI having to take Anatabloc off the market when they file their IND with the FDA?

  81. 81
    RB Says:

    AMZG taking some money late…yabba, dabba doooo!!!!

  82. 82
    crysball Says:

    HNR……….Harvest  Natural  Resuource

    IMHO  a  company best  described as  Rainbow  Chasers,  and  in  the  interim  touting  they  would  need   ever bigger  trucks  to  haul  away  the pot (s) of  gold,   but  never  [EVER] getting  to the  first  pot.

    Reason  mentionied………..they  appear  on  the  verge  of  insolvency…………and  IMHO   Vaalco  Energy  is   in negotiation  to  purchase  the HNR operating   interest   in  the Dussafa concesession  in shallow  offshore  Gabon[which includes  two (2)  discovery wells] ………[but  not  produced]…and is immediately adjacent  to  the  Vaalco Etame concession.     The  idea  would be to   tie  the Dussafu  concession  into  the existing  FPSO   and already  producing  Vaalco  Etame  concession.

    Vaalco  has  the cash  and  the  proven operating  ability…………….HNR  would seem   to  be a motivated  seller.   Vaalco    has  previously stated   they  are  in the market    to  purchase  proven, but  not  producing  assets  in W. Africa…………..and  Dussafu  meets  the test..

    All IMHO

  83. 83
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    OT:  STSI — i sure hope they don't have to… Anatabloc helps a lot of people.  If it does get pulled, the company is working on allowing people to continue to buy it on a "compassionate needs" basis and will work with people to help them get it.  Just have to do what the FDA says… and we don't know how that will play out yet.

    But the Big Kahuna for Star has always been the pharma-version of anatabine citrate.  That is where the MegaBucks are.  I was hoping they could get enough income from the nutraceutical to fund the overhead; but unless it went crazy-viral (which it could have, especially once they got the time-release version on the shelves at GNC), it was never going to drive the stock price much past $8-10/share.  As a pharma, I am looking for a much higher valuation.  Also, like a pharma, they will need to raise $$ to get it through the FDA trials.  Just not as much as people fear… and there are many ways to do it, including partnering with a Big Pharma on one of the indications, when the time is right.  Or licensing… or raising more equity.  One thing I like about this new managment team is that they have hit the ground running on getting costs under control.  We have the right team in place to take this to the next level.  And that next level is far (far) higher than what we ever could do in just the nutraceutical market.

  84. 84
    sc4 Says:

    82 Agree that this is a very reasonable move . egy will not have much by way of production increases this year so the projects would fit well . Everything they touch seems to take forever.

    Do you understand why they don't just sell their  u.s. assets.? These only take up management time.

    I'm sure there is more to it but it is not clear. tia

  85. 85
    Justin Says:

    NOG – Reger on Mad Money tonight.

    http://www.thestreet.mobi/story/12538792/1/jim-cramers-mad-money-recap-the-enemy-is-us.html

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    Thanks Justin

     

  87. 87
    mimster90 Says:

    OT: thanks BOP for sharing STSI thoughts.

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