24
Feb

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Tsunami of E&P 4Q13 reports this week (see calendar in the Stuff section or on the Calendar tab) as 14 owned names and another 8 names we care about report. We like busy weeks and this is going to be a really busy one.  On the ecodata front we get a read on the consumer and more assurances from Yellen that the economy is grudgingly on the mend but also that rates are not going to be rising as soon as some voting Fed members would apparently like. In today's post please find The Week That Was (and it was a pretty good one as 2014 goes so far), the earnings calendar, and a subscriber mailbag question and answer along with some other odds and ends.  Also, mark your calendar for a private call with the CEO of OEDV, one week from today, 1 PM EST, March 3rd. We'll get AMZG on the calendar for a private call shortly as well. Today's post is open to the public so feel free to share the link about the web via email, Twitter, Facebook, carrier pigeon etc. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • No economic releases scheduled. 

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 2/25: Case-Shiller home prices, FHFA home price index, consumer confidence, 
  • Wednesday 2/26: New home sales, 
  • Thursday 2/27: Jobless claims, durable goods, Yellen testifies to Senate, 
  • Friday 2/28: GDP 4Q13 revision, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment, pending home sales.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - Energy Earnings Calendar - Week 6, Subscriber Mailbag
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ... Holdings Watch:   

 

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

  • The Blotter is updated.

Commodity Watch

Crude oil closed up another 2% last week at $102.20 on another big draw down of Cushing stocks and despite tepid U.S. product demand and more quiet, and flatly priced international markets. We do not see the recent move over $100 as sustainable. See the The Week That Was below for additional comments.  This morning crude is trading flat.     

  • Libya Watch: Ongoing protests continue to crimp supply out of the country with Reuters reporting volumes have fallen to 230,000 bopd from a recent 500,000+ bopd  (the first half of 2013 saw Libya average close to 1.4 mm bopd.  Libya is one of the areas of concern from the standpoint of a possible return of volumes in 2H14 although that currently does not look all that promising. 

Natural gas jump 18% to close at $6.14 last week (roughly five year high for the front month) after EIA reported another super-sized and record for this week of the year withdrawal from storage.  Unlike in prior weeks, the 12 month strip didn't inch up as the front month yoyo'd about but instead advanced sharply itself, ending the week up 6% at $4.92. See The Week That Was section below for more comments.  This morning gas is trading up 5%. 

  • Exports Watch: Late in 2014 we now expect the proposed and funded NET Line to be open for business with additional export capacity to Mexico of a whopping 2 Bcfgpd from the Eagle Ford. Roughly 1.9 Bcfgpd was heading south last year so if full this means net imports to the U.S.  (Net volumes from Canada plus LNG Imports (almost non-existent now) less volumes sent south to Mexico) will be cut sharply (net imports to the US ran only 3.26 Bcfgpd as of last November).  This means net supply growth in the U.S.could be negative in 2015. 

Weather Watch:  Much Warmer

  • Last week's weather: Gas weighted Heating Degree Days came in at 169 vs 192 normal and 243 in the prior week which helped to generate last Thursday's record for that week of the year 250 Bcf withdrawal report. 
  • This week's forecast: HDDs are forecast to jump back up to 220 vs 180 normal for this week of the year. 

The Week That Was

weekly wrap 022114

Stuff We Care About Today

Subscriber Mailbag

Q) CVX's comment about the Permian at the CS Vail Conf. They don't believe the Permian is fully delineated and intend to launch a bigger program if we like what they see. Would you call the Permian pretty well proven? You think CVX is just being cautious and usually does things with a 10 year time horizon or just being coy so they can accumulate property before others think they want to be all in? You have 4-5 names in the Permian that you would call the easy to own names? Thanks

ZComments:

  • That CVX makes sense. At least from a horizontal perspective there are big swaths of each of the three Permain sub-basins (Delaware, Midland, Central Uplift---) that are only sparsely populated with horizontal tests.  From a vertical perspective however the Permian in general is a pin cushion. And from that vertical well control a lot is known about how the roughly 3,000' of thickness varies across the various counties involved.
  • Yes, I'd call it pretty well proven in terms of hydrocarbons in place but definitely not entirely delineated from the standpoint of how much is going to be a horizontal vs a vertical play and in what zones.  That work is ongoing now across all three basins and results have largely been positive but still, it's a big space,
  • Easy to own.  PXD for long term holders. We don't own it but they are the kings here and rarely disappoint and they are top notch operators. After that its more difficult to say.  FANG is a tempting call simply because of their style on the calls and their results and stock performance to date. The others we own are too soon to make that call for in terms of being public.  

 

Earnings Calendar - Energy Earnings 4Q13, Week 6

4Q13 EW 6

Tuesday Reporters

EOG

  • ​Leader in the Eagle Ford - look for another string of monster wells with some more announced big wells in the western portion of their acreage (traditionally it's been the Gonzales area in the northeast that's been big Kahuna well country), 
  • Highly probable they advance average EURs for the entire Eagle Ford play with this call. 
  • Look for them to talk more about the Permian (again) but to still downplay the play's importance relative to the Bakken and especially vs the Eagle Ford. 
  • Bakken - look for more infill drilling results, look for more Antelope extension results, look for them to maybe talk about lower bench testing in the TFS.
  • Balance sheet continues to strengthen and look for them to get asked about further return of capital to shareholders,
  • Guidance for 2014 already out there, likely reiteration, potential for slight acceleration,
  • As always, look for a good walking through of the macro for oil and natural gas (expect them to show a little surprise over natural gas prices but to warn that it's due to a strong winter and that prices will soon retreat - though not at as much as they normally would have). 
  • We continue to own the name in the ZLT.

CRZO

  • Pre-announced 4Q oil volumes at high end of range,
  • ​Eagle Ford - expect little new data this quarter. 
  • Utica - look for comments on a 30 day rate on their recently announced first operated Utica well in Guernsey County, OH as well as hook up timing there and regarding the location of the spud of their second well in 2Q14.   Expect them to highlight their acreage being right in the AR targetted area. 
  • Marcellus - probably talk of near term upper Marcellus tests but no data, 
  • We continue to own the name in the ZLT.

​ROSE

  • Production was pre-announced,
  • Eagle Ford - We may get comments on their first upper EFS test outside of Gates Ranch on the call (may or may not be IP'd by time of call as it is on their first 3 well pad). Implication could be a significant add to location count if it works. 
  • Permian - looking forward to maybe two more upper Wolf Camp wells in Reeves County and longer term rate on their first operated well. 
  • We continue to own the name in the ZLT.

AREX

  • ​Permian player that still has not participated in the great Permian rally of 2013/2014,
  • Looking for a basic update of the 2014 plan and progress report. 
  • We do not own the name.

SDRL

  • Name of interest on the site; we do not own the name. 

Other Stuff

  • MHR - 4Q13 CC at 11 am EST. 

 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • RRC - SunTrust raises target by $20 to $110, rating stays Buy,
  • PVA - Imperial ups target $5.50 to $18, rating Outperform,
  • PVA - Canaccord ups target $4 to $18, rating Buy,
  • HAL - Wells Fargo cuts to Market Perform on valuation,
  • HAL - Raymond James ups to Strong Buy from Outperform,
  • PDCE - Topeka raises target by $7 to $75, stays Buy,
  • SM - Topeka cuts target by $12 to $100, stays Buy, 
  • GDP - SunTrust cuts target by $10 to $30, stays Buy,
  • GDP - Canaccord cuts target by $6 to $24, stays Buy

233 Responses to “Monday Morning”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Short Term Areas of Interest  2/24, 8:12 AM ES 1834.25/ SPY Levels in ()

    Notes….. Market tested recent highs on Friday and returned to acceptance at the Major CHVN at 1836.75. Balanced trading. Demand volume flat. Breadth trend positive. Nasdaq leading. Financials/Transports lagging. Primary uptrend intact.

    Thoughts …… Market working off recent run up in balanced/choppy trading around the 1836.75 CHVN while gradually building acceptance higher. Slight upside bias here until we see how the market treats the 1836.75 CHVN going forward. This area has been very well auctioned now and move above 1836.75 has range expansion potential. A rejection of 1836.75 that extends below 1832 is another kettle of fish….

    1846.50           All Time Highs

    1840.50           Minor CLVN/ Resistance

    1836.75           CHVN/ (183.53)

    1824                CLVN/Minor support with lower volume area below  to 1806

    1806                 CLVN/Support

    1798.25           Minor CHVN

    1794.50           CLVN

    1794.50           CLVN/Support

    1781.50          Major CHVN(179.32)

    1723.50            Major CLVN and low volume area below to 1700

     

     

     

    SP500 Futures  

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/es_clean_140224043525

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/es_clean_140224043017

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    SPY  183.53 CHVN Volume Pivot. Upside bias above that level. Support at 181.12

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224051007

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    SWN new cycle highs pre market on light volume

    Analyst Watch:

    NBL – KLR starting with Buy and $91 target (DJ Basin differentials apparently not scaring them off)

     

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    NG Strip – less enthusiastic (as it should be) than the front month's noise, but still green on the forecast that will drive us eventually below 1,200 Bcf for a trough in about 5 weeks. 

    http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Natural_Gas_Futures/NG?search=NG*

  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    OT Reminder

    http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2014/02/24/people-who-cannot-accurately-forecast-markets/

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    SPWR  Settling up for a breakout

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224053316

    CSIQ

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224053434

  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    SWN  44.25 was my WAG a couple weeks ago for the next range high…If I'm wrong (and I hope I am)note the long term volume base/congestion thins above that level should it break…

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224053644

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    COG  Support 35.30. Near Resistance 37.56

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224054423

  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    PDCE  56.72 Support

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224054744

  10. 10
    tomdavis12 Says:

    SDRL: Summary of some comments made by MS last week. The idea of a dividend cut seems improbable. History: They did cut their dividend at the end of  '08 into '09. That was due to banking financing difficulties rather than industry fundamentals. Two of their rigs coming out of yards in '14 have LOI's from Nigeria West Saturn @ $615K/day for 2-3 years starting May of '14 and West Jupiter @ $585K/day for 5 years starting in Sept. Estimates for tommorrow. EBITDA $771mm EPS $.76 and dividend of $96 up $.01. Expecting $4.00/share by the end of '14.  Lets look at the debt. As of end of 3rdq they had total debt of $14.3B. 70% is aaset backed. As of 3rdq they had a funding gap of $13.1B thru '15 which consists of shipyard installments ($7.8B) and debt repayments of $5.3B. In the 4thq they have knock down this gap to $8.9B. $1.75B credit facility for Sevan Drilling, West Taurus facility $390mm, $250mm sale of SapuraKencana shares etc etc.The remaining $8.9B can be handled with 1. Refinancing existing facilities that are maturing in '14-'15 2. securing credit facilities on uncollaterized newbuilds '15 & '16 (75% of value). That should raise $9.1B enough to fund the gap. Now that the Pemex JU deal is complete that is also a credit facility possibility.   We should note that there are industry headwinds but SDRL has been very committed to their above average dividend. Short of Brent below $80/bl I would stay the course and would not want to be short with a 10%+ expense each year.  

  11. 11
    elduque Says:

    BDI unch

    Brent/WTI at 7.2

    TNX at 2.739

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    Thanks Zorg.  Re 5 = ture and LOL. 

    re SRL – thanks Tom, put it on the list, no interest by me at this time and not planning to listen but please do share comments for the site tomorrow if you have time. 

    re 11 – thanks. 

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    NG  March

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/ng_master_140224060321

  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    FSLR  Upgrade to 62 from Baird..Trading at resistance.Lagging badly…

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224060728

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch

    PVA – Howard Weil ups from $16 to $23, stays Outperform

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    No comments from the MHR gallery this morning on earnings?

  17. 17
    choices Says:

    FCX-may be good news in Indonesia-it is never done until it is done:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/freeport-resume-indonesia-copper-exports-081418807.html

  18. 18
    Zorgnak Says:

    MHR

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224062600

  19. 19
    Dedwards Says:

    I'm out of town in Orlando today, but did have a chance to skim the report. Nothing out of the ordinary, don't know why they moved the call up. They continue to fail to meet their own production targets, but thankfully this isn't a production story just yet. Debt continues to grow which is concerning but not lethal. I'm now fairly certain they are shopping the Williston assets. 

  20. 20
    nrgyman Says:

    RICE:  Dan Rice will be on Mad Money tonight. 

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    re 19 – thanks Dedwards,  I'd guess they moved the call up so as not to conflic with the busy schedule this week.  People have been saying it's not a production story for a long time there. 

  22. 22
    r09traveler Says:

    thanks Tom for the SDRL analysis

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    re 20 – thanks, DR III or DR IV?

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    An oldy from March of 2012 but … 

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/431451-the-street-is-too-timid-on-penn-virginia

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    Watching COG continue to come in post 4Q call. 

  26. 26
    tomdavis12 Says:

    22 r09traveler  Happy you find it helpful. Don't be afraid to ask any other questions re SDRL. I am no Z but have followed story for quite awhile.

  27. 27
    Justin Says:

    Anyone see something related to the SDCJF halt?  I can't find anything.

  28. 28
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 23:  Didn't catch that.  Showed a photo of a relatively young man, if that helps.

  29. 29
    Zorgnak Says:

    PXD  EOG   Volume above average for time of day…big money rotation?

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    re 28 – it does thanks, that's likely the son and CEO, DR IV. 

    re 27 – nothing yet on the ASX site, would expect it today. 

    S&P about to take out the January high. 

  31. 31
    Zorgnak Says:

    PXD at resistance…lost my charts for the moment

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    re 29 – safty/liquidity names in EFS and Permian.  Makes since with oil failing to pull a RAJA chacha to $65. 

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    Mildly surprised if no press release this week out of JONE.  Getting late on the guidance update there. 

  34. 34
    choices Says:

    SWN-on fire-mucho caliente.

  35. 35
    RB Says:

    BCEI is recovering from its internal spat nicely…had foolishly sold out, but reloaded some time back around $42…nice

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    re 34 Re SWN

    Earnings there Friday

    – biggest wells yet in the Fayetteville, also among fastest drilled. 

    – Brown Dense verticals to talk about on that call as well. 

  37. 37
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z – Do you have a price on GDPAN that you might have more interest? Would you like to see a little more drilling success before adding? 

  38. 38
    nrgyman Says:

    Natgas:  Nearby futures contracts showing a large spread.  Current month 5.78 and next month 4.83 (expires March 27) almost 1.00 difference for just 30 days.  Market anticipating a sharp drop in the next 30 days.

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    re 35 – hey, glad to hear you're back. It remains the #1 position in the ZLT. 

    PVA is still cheap ya know although we will do some Trading Only Position trimming and rebalancing somewhere over $15.  I got some distressed emails last summer (2013) from the SA editorial staff about how that one had not done well since my March 2012 piece (holding in the $4 to $7 range with a headfake in summer 2012).  Funny but I think when I say 2 to 3 years I mean 2 to 3 years.  They get all excited if it breaks higher later the day of the post. That's just no way to think about a portfolio.  

     

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    re 37 – Near here is fine and I may add a little within the next 2 weeks or so, probably a little before and then a little after the Weyerhaueser well. 

    re 38 – yeah, this is why the stocks and I don't get all that excited about weather. Nothing has changed from a supply and demand standpoint, we just have a better than expected starting point for storage to begin injecting. We'll mark 1Q13 to market soon and then probably only inch up 2Q and 3Q prices.  $5+ would be quite bad for generation demand and we would see a shift from week after week of record demand due to "cold" to week after week of record injections due to "coal". 

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    AMZG inching

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    GST doing a private call with GHS clients now. 

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    Nice to see some traction come to REXX

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    BCEI not alone in rebound, NBL price target upgrade helping other Wattenbergs as well, see SYRG, PDCE.

  45. 45
    RB Says:

    REXX another I rebought…

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    re 45 – fine, then please rebuy more of my names 😉 

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    HAL taking out November highs:

    Always amused to see the SS going opposite directions on the same day:

    • HAL – Wells Fargo cuts to Market Perform on valuation,
    • HAL – Raymond James ups to Strong Buy from Outperform (presumably on valuation as well, LOL),
  48. 48
    zman Says:

    The last time HAL was this high was mid 11 and then mid 08 and that's it.  It's of course quite a bit cheaper than it was last time. 

  49. 49
    Zorgnak Says:

    XOP  running 2x avg volume for time of day

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    MHR call in 15 minutes

  51. 51
    Karl Naundorf Says:

    re::24  That was a terrific call, Z.  Many thanks, it has been ( and will continue to be, I'm betting) a very profitable run in that stock for me.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    re 51 – Thanks and glad it's working for ya.

    MHR call about to start, notes in a bit … 

  53. 53
    nrgyman Says:

    Zorg, on the natgas producers chart you maintain has the long term resistance barrier been breached yet?  That is a significant price point for the natgas names, which are burning it up today.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    MHR 4Q13 Notes

    643,000 net acres now across both areas

    Appalachia – 12,000 BOEpd as of last Friday

    Marcellus:

    – shut in but tested wells, 5 net Marcellus wells, = 4,300 BOEpd net

    – several more net Marcellus completing now

    – 2 more net WOC in Marcellus

    – Will bring the Stalder stacked lateral with the Utica back on this week  

    – talking about the winter being exceptionally brutal – no argument there, that's easy to excuse. 

    – would have been at 22,000 BOEpd at exit 2013 were it not for the cold (thinking they lost 50 productive days over the winter)

     – EURs approaching 12 Bcf,

     – in process remaining wells on 2 pads mentioned in pr

    Utica: 

    – 1 Utica well WOC

    Williston Basin

     – Focus on Ambrose area (Divide County) 

     – 2 to 4 rigs running at any time

     – productive capacity of 4,500 bopd 

    – Walking through catalyst wells with Samson, Baytex, CLR

    – 3 mile long M Bakken well with CLR operating, fraccing 50 stages there now. 

    – 9 net wells in the Ambrose area 

     – seeing strong netbacks 

     – thinking $10 LOE and $15 F&D in the Williston (sounds fair)

     – flaring about 500 boepd of NG, will be 95% gathered by YE14

     – see tie in with pipelines this year, reducing LOE by YE14 

  55. 55
    crysball Says:

    EGY  up 5.91%   on  less than  normal  volume and  no  news…………………however,  @  Enercom  last  week  the  new  President [Steve Guidry]  did  mention  the   Exploration  well  they  were  drilling  on  the  Dimba  Prospect [Offshore   shallow  water  Gabon  in thier  Etame Marin  concession]  28.1 % WI Vaalco  is  the operator  would  be  at  TD  this  last  weekend.   It  had  targets   in  both  the  Gamba and  Luchinda.  

    Additionally  last  week  @ Enercom  he  advised  they  had a  semisub  rig   for  Drilling  Block P  in  Eq. Guinea   in  Q4 2014.      They already  have  a discovery  in  Block P  and  the  drilling effort  in Q4  will  be to determine  if 2  nearby prospects  are  also  oil bearing  so  they  can  size  the FPSO  they  will  need  for Block P.

    Would expect  Vaalco  to  also  announce   @ the upcoming  Q4 CC  they  have  an  agreement   with   GE Petrol. [National Oil Company  of Eq. Guinea] that  Vaalco & GE Petrol  will  be  co-operators  on  Blcock P……………Vaalco  has  31%  WI   in Blkock P.

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    MHR 4Q13 Notes 2

    – volumes ramping nicely into Eureka Hunter

    – no new weaknesses in the 2013 audit. 

    – Production was in excess of 14,000 BOEpd in January without the Stalder well on line. 

    Hedges

    –  4,600 bopd $85 floor 2014

    – minimal hedge in 2015

    Capex

    2014 – $400 mm  ($260 mm in Marcellus/Utica (including some leasehold) and $50 mm Williston and rest to midstream)

    Liquidity – $65 mm

    Variety of options to fund – cash flow, borrowings (expect borrowing base to go up), non core sales, and possible equity transactions

    Litigation update – 4 cases filed against executives last year.  All 4 dismissed with prejudice. Very please there are no stockholder cases against directors or officers at this time. 

    Non Core asset sales

     – big one was to PVA

     – another $400 mm in non core – Canada, some EOR projects, and non core North Dakota acreage no in their Ambrose area. 

     – data rooms are open on all of these and they are in negotiations. 

     – this will help fund this year's gap and then Midstream is set to open its own revolver. 

    Reminding people the miss on production at year end was due to combo of asset sales and weather. 

    Goal is to be better with respect to wells they drill, saying Stalder is a good example of the improvement they want, 

    Saying they think you will see more JV's in the Utica

    Comparing big pads in the Utica with 10 or more wells being like what you used to see in from gassy platforms on the Shelf (no kidding but with a lot less risk)

    We're a direct beneficiary of higher natural gas prices (I missed his exact current hedge for 2014 but it's 33 MM/d or so so about all of current but much less than expected 2014 average volumes for gas). 

    Q&A starting now … 

     

     

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    OAS breaching 200 day from below. Nice to see it continue to rally after the raft of analyst crunching down their targets following the guidance call. 

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    MHR 4Q13 Q&A

    Q) How man net Utica wells this year

    A) 2 Farley wells, then one more due south of Stalder, and 2 more in a possible JV in Washington County late in the year.  Talking about the impact of pad drilling and lumpyness … that's something that smooths out over time as well.   Short answer though is 3 Utica and possible 5+ this year. 

    Q)  How JV to work

    A) We must operate.  Recent results show we know what we are doing (they are referring to that 30+ MM/d well just east of AR's main area)

    Q) Acreage? 

    A) Expecting continued strong pickup in the Utica; said 30 to 40,000 net pickup in the next 12 to 18 months I think (kind of broke up there for a minute).  Being more careful in the Marcellus and just filling in donut holes. 

  59. 59
    RB Says:

    nice to see the XOP leading the SP handily now…got me excited; why I was not seeing your e-mails

  60. 60
    Zorgnak Says:

    #53….Re Nat Gas Producer chart…Long term resistance/volume base

    I used end of day data for that chart so we won't know until after the close but my thinking was that was up for a test soon and I'm positioned for it…either long or in the short term

    Watching FCG as an intra day proxy shows good price movement but volume still lacking…looking at the individual stocks I don't see a lot of volume either…yet….

    I'll post the chart tonight after the close

    My charts are inoperative at the moment…lost all the data at the open…downloading now

  61. 61
    Zorgnak Says:

    HK loosening up some

  62. 62
    Zorgnak Says:

    HK  volume 1.8X average atm

  63. 63
    Popeye Says:

    Did I miss something on HK today?

  64. 64
    RB Says:

    HK call coming up…last time I thought it went well, but VD got the upper hand….

  65. 65
    Popeye Says:

    That was fast, before I finished posting! Zorg is reading my mind.

  66. 66
    RB Says:

    saw nothing on HK, other than a SA article that showed them permitting wells in a new county in the ElHalcon, near a CWEI well, but a good distance from others they drilled

  67. 67
    Zorgnak Says:

    OAS KOG EOG TPLM CLR all above average volume for time of day

  68. 68
    Zorgnak Says:

    EOX as well..still struggling though

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    MHR 4Q13 Q&A 2

    Q) Timing of asset sales and pipeline JV?

    A) We're having active discussions almost every day.  Turned down a lot of bids. Saying with higher prices their assets for sale value is going up.  Said to look for some announcements next 30 days.  Board has decided for now to keep Eureka Hunter. 

    Q) Current production question?  At 16,700 BOEpd now? 

    A) Current production does include Tableland of 600 to 700 BOEpd. 

    Q) YE14 Exit ?

    A) Sticking with 35,000 BOEpd exit rate.  Says we'll have a better idea by Summer but feel good about that number. 

    Q) Stalder update well?

    A)  Said we shut it in to frac the Marcellus well on that pad, back on soon (as per . 

    Q)  Kim P asking about 30 day rates on the longer laterals, saying they are low to EUR / recent wells in the m Bakken. 

    A)  Said they only reported last 5 wells and those were on the same pad and that you only get a couple on and the rest lose energy and you lose the high IP and some of those have to go on pump instead of flowing naturally early.  Saying several of the wells sat around for 60 days.  

    Q)  2 mile laterals costs

    A)  Saying they are falling (think he said $6.4 mm) … Street is not generally impressed with north Divide County.  I'd say be patient and watch the cumulative data / first two year's shallow decline. 

    Q)  Spitzer well and a few others,  had 27 stages vs normal 16 to 19

    A)  Have been experimenting with shorter stage lengths.  Settling on 200' stage spacing vs 150' … best bang or buck so far.  

    q)  What can you do to limit impact of cold weather

    A) Having to build shrouds on the BOPs, also saying the robotic rigs where people don't have to be outside will help as well. Said we are good down to 20 degrees, and 10 if the temps jump up to over freezing occassionally.  Below 10 is a problem. 

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    Permians extending. 

    FANG at new high, ATHL as well, RSPP taking a little rest after a run, would expect that to press higher with FANG over time. 

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    FTK – new high going back to early 2008. 

  72. 72
    nrgyman Says:

    Re 60:  Ok, thanks Zorg. 

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    MHR Q&A 3

    Q) Leverage at YE14

    A)  Hopefully lower.  Combo of asset sale pricing and hope to call warrants worth $150 mm

    Q)  Asset sales associated production

    A) 2,000 to 2,500 BOEpd

    Q)  Redetermination timing

    A)  Working on it now.  Saying it will be a meaningful increase due to the increase in PDP.   We'll due a June 30 reserve report to cover all the reserve adds in the Utica over 1H14.

    Q)  Mentioned potential financial markets transactions … what's that mean?

    A)  Well the stock has done well, mentioned the warrants as well, want to call in the Series C and Series D and can force conversion of the E around $11. 

     

     

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    MHR Q&A 4

    Q) How much Utica acreage do you ultimately want to hold 

    A)  Combined with Marcellus, would like to get to 250,000 net acres.  Will do more trading and more JVs. 

    Call ending 

    Analyst tone fairly neutral, no one overy bearish or bullish sound, pretty constructive overall. 

  75. 75
    Justin Says:

    Thansk for the notes Z. Any mention of why they pulled the call up?

    Hope they don't get greedy on those assets sales.  Cash is king.

  76. 76
    Justin Says:

    Thansk for the notes Z. Any mention of why they pulled the call up?

    Hope they don't get greedy on those asset sales.  Cash is king.

  77. 77
    Zorgnak Says:

    MHR closed the 2/14 gap

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    re 76 – no.  My best guess is that they took a look at the calendar above and decided they wanted to be able to walk through all the parts of the story on a day when people cared as opposed to trying it on a day when no one would care except to call the quarter a brick on weather.  It's what I would have done. 

  79. 79
    Bill Potter Says:

    Two California lawmakers have unveiled a new bill that would halt fracking in the state.  I bet they don't know what fracking actually is.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/21/us-california-fracking-moratorium-idUSBREA1K23620140221

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    re 79 – They just want other people's natural gas, LOL.

     

  81. 81
    Zorgnak Says:

    MHR  Support 8.30  Far support 7.47

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224093437

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    re 79 #2 – and that will make it impossible to crack the code on the Monterey. 

  83. 83
    Zorgnak Says:

    PXD  Breaking out

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224093537

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    re 83 – yeah, you have Bakken (CLR), Permian (PXD), EFS (EOG) leadership names all in breakout mode now … dragging the mids and smalls along.   Nice to see TPLM extending again. 

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    and DJ Basin (NBL)

     

  86. 86
    Zorgnak Says:

    ATHL  

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224093825

     

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    and Marcellus (RRC but not COG).  AR and SWN working higher as well.  Expect to hear SWN added to its fairly low hedge book for 2014 later this week at strong prices. 

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    CRZO moving to top of recent wide base range (back to October highs and they didn't sell off with the group) in front of tomorrow's quarter.  Pleased but not expecting a huge amount of new data on this call, just a reiteration of guidance and a bit more news on their Utica well. 

  89. 89
    Zorgnak Says:

    CRZO

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224095337

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    Thanks Zorg, 

    Offtopicthirty, grabbing lunch, back in a bit. 

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    PVA at $15, nice to see. 

  92. 92
    Dillon Says:

    BOP – do know of anything material going on with STSI? She seems to be crusing pretty nicely the past week or so. Back up at $1 on good volume.

  93. 93
    crysball Says:

    Z, regarding  MHR  operations  in  N. Divide  County ………………how  close  are   they  to  AMZG? 

    Also   note  MHR  saying   the  decline  rate  on the  N. Diivide County Wells     is  low…………same thing  AMZG   was  saying.

     

     

  94. 94
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: MHR when Gary sold his EFS to PVA he stated that he thought where he was going was more profitable property. Is it too early to call who got the better of the trade MHR or PVA? 

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    Aubrey on the tape having raised $700 mm to acreage and production in the Miss-Wood play in central OK

  96. 96
    Bill Potter Says:

    re 95 he should just buy OEDV and SDCJF.  That would make my year.

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    re 93 

    – just east of AMZG

    – yeah.  We pulled just over a dozen wells when developing our curve for AMZG's wells and noted the low decline rate and McKenzie like cumulatives out of this low IP, non sexy, mostly Three Forks wells.  So it's not a myth, its a fact.

    re 94 – PVA is certainly liking what they got in that deal. 

     

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    re 96 – re Aubrey and SDCJF – well, that would be a noteworthy "market condition" for a trading halt.  "Pssst, don't do that deal, I'll just you."

  99. 99
    Zorgnak Says:

    REXX Pausing at the CLVN 18.93/CHVN 19. 

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224100734

  100. 100
    Zorgnak Says:

    HK  3.95 CLVN resistance at the moment

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224102344

  101. 101
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs still working a trend day above 1853.25..VPOC at 

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/es_intraday_140224102652

  102. 102
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs still working a trend day above 1853.25..VPOC at 1851. Needs to stay above the 1850 LVN to avoid a reversal

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/es_intraday_140224102652

  103. 103
    Bill Potter Says:

    ugh, SDCJF down 25%.  I wonder what happened…

  104. 104
    zman Says:

    re 103 – no news on their site yet or the ASX site.   Just a handful of trades down there, somebody wanted out. 

  105. 105
    Justin Says:

    SUNDANCE Energy Australia is poised to exit a trading halt to reveal it has put its United States dual listing on ice amid poor market conditions, and the gas explorer is instead tapping the Australian market for $60 million.

    It has been confirmed to Business Spectator that Euroz Securities, based in Perth, is running an equity raising in Australia for about $60.5 million. The listed Perth broker is selling 63.6 million shares at 95c apiece.

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    re 105 – thanks, nice sale price on that.  Silly for that to be reason for a sell off.  It's about a third the size of the old deal, they need to talk about what the real reason for putting the kibosh on the deal is though because as I look around, these are not poor market conditions. 

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    and adding to that, if it does sell off further, we are fine adding more, it's about 1.6% of the greater ZLT now. 

  108. 108
    Bill Potter Says:

    re 103-105 Thanks Z and Justin.

    Market conditions are not poor.  The offering appears to not have been well received which scares me when it's as cheap as it is.

  109. 109
    Zorgnak Says:

    SPWR  35% of float short

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224104702

  110. 110
    Bill Potter Says:

    Z I've seen your numbers and gone through the roadshow presentation what might we be missing?  What are all the risks?

  111. 111
    Justin Says:

    Tried to snap up a few SDCJF but the ask is already .80.

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    re 110

    Same as with an small E&P

    The roadshow looked fine, the plan remains unchanged, I heard they had trouble getting meetings due to the weather but I'd just postpone if that was the case.  Otherwise, they have been executing well.  They could really stand to update their website with current data and slideshow but suspect that comes now that the deal is off and repackaged as a smaller Australian offering. 

  113. 113
    Bill Potter Says:

    yep, huge spread between buy and ask right now.  The $60 million Australian offering was about 5% below last trade there.  My guess is it will move back to equilibrium with that price.

    I'm concerned about why the offering didn't go well.  We are missing something.

  114. 114
    zman Says:

    re 113 – sure but until they speak to a better reason it's going to stay that way. I don't see an issue with the guidance or the math that works out of the guidance.  

  115. 115
    Zorgnak Says:

    Both hit top of range today..

    SWN

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224111912

    RRC

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224111935

  116. 116
    brodway Says:

    re: 48

    Zman…. HAL gets to the highs every 3 years? 2008, 2011, 2014….seems like a recurrent pattern

  117. 117
    zman Says:

    re 113 – reason for the huge spread is that it's still halted in Australia and people are guessing over in the U.S. 

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    re 116 – Definition of a coincidence. 2008 was a broad market induced tumble. 2011 was overcapacity in pressure pumping that sapped NAM margins while the turn in International margins was still too nascent to matter to the story. SLB, BHI exhibit the exact same pattern. Given the fundamental growth at HAL and ongoing margin improvement we are looking for fresh highs, not all at once and it's probably moving a bit too far too fast in the last couple of weeks but the 4Q call beat down on the 6% global spend comment out of SLB (instead of 10% as most wanted to hear) has now run its course through the names of OIH and been more than reversed by this post 4Q release recovery. 

  119. 119
    elduque Says:

    Choices- thanks for the pickup on FCX. Stock should start to do quite a bit better.

  120. 120
    zman Says:

    Eld – thanks for the headsup on RRC reporting tomorrow night for a Wednesday call, we had missed that one. 

  121. 121
    zman Says:

    Eld – have you seen Robry yet for this week?

  122. 122
    elduque Says:

    Robry -94 and then back to -200

  123. 123
    elduque Says:

    Z- are you still expecting something from EOX any day now?

  124. 124
    zman Says:

    re 122 – thanks, makes sense looking at the forecast. Excellent starting point for injections. We've already pulled more natural gas out of storage for the time of year than in in year on record and we'll be at a record for the whole year after the next two withdrawals with about 4 weeks left to go in the season. 

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    Yes, increased guidance for 2014 to take into account acquired volumes.  They should be able to lift it more just the acquired amount (roughly 200 bopd) from 3,300 to 3,500 BOEpd.  We have them closer to 3,900 BOEpd.   We expected this any time after mid Feb so they could just wait to put it in with the 4Q13 call and we have not yet seen a date set for that call.  So no change in thinking since this set of notes and cheat sheet were posted in January:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/2014/01/24/friday-morning-oil-and-natural-gas-inventory-review-plus-athl-eox-rice-and-more/

  126. 126
    Zorgnak Says:

    COG tagged far support today  35.30

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224115829

  127. 127
    Zorgnak Says:

    COG  Intra-day above support. Trading sideways. Sold some Jul 35 puts earlier

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224115942

  128. 128
    zman Says:

    Sundance news on the ASX … no new news yet, still shows under halt:

    http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=SEA

  129. 129
    zman Says:

    RSPP – going yippee skippee balistic again in fast follower action after FANG.

  130. 130
    RMD Says:

    CS quickie  on WFT: new CFO spoke at ourconference; ' there are adults in the room the St.' hasn't met yet. His est. of net debt for '13 to '15 is $8B to $6B to $-11B. (I'm trying to get a model.)

  131. 131
    zman Says:

    re 130 

    That progression is:

    $8B

    $6B

    and net no net debt and $11 B cash?  Did they move HQ to a hash den in Colorado?   I'd like to see the math on that too. 

  132. 132
    Dedwards Says:

    Z, thanks for the MHR notes. It's funny how there was very little new incremental news and stock is down 7%. The seriousness of the funding gap leads me to think there will be some kind of transaction there soon. Warrants, Williston, and JV all on the table.

  133. 133
    zman Says:

    re 132 – Happy to help as I knew you were on the road. Growth should be able to hockeystick there with spring like weather. I didn't get the sense that the whole Bakken was for sale, just outlying parts. I think Paganowski's question on the Bakken 30 day rates threw them a bit, maybe scare people. It deflated a little rally in AMZG quickly as well but this is all just noise and will pass in the medium term.  I don't have my hands around the mix change at MHR (as we don't own it) but they are going to be pretty gassy growers this year, correct? 

  134. 134
    brodway Says:

    HK…continues keeps knocking on the $4 door….knock knock

  135. 135
    zman Says:

    re 134 – CC Thursday there. They've been very quiet for them.  Worst kept secret in the E&P realm has been their move to redoulbe their acreage acquisition effort in the TMS.  Look for them to talk about that but to focus much of the call on improved well results per lateral foot in both areas of the Williston and at El Halcon. 

  136. 136
    zman Says:

    After the close or before the open we have reports from EOG, CRZO, ROSE, AREX, and SDRL. 

  137. 137
    brodway Says:

    re: 135

    should have some color this week then..the suspense is killing me…

  138. 138
    Dedwards Says:

    Re 133: all the evidence we have to date suggests they will be gassy. The Farley wells are in the liquids window and their results will help clarify what the mix is going to be moving forward.  I'm not too afraid of getting gassy as long as they can hedge forward over $4, but that opinion is not mainstream.

  139. 139
    RMD Says:

    131  yes, $11B cash. Only a 1 pager with summary numbers.  He didn't adjust sales down for divesting but I suppose those net debt #s are adjusted.  Other summary numbers squirelly also as they look to have some assumptions which are not spelled out. Checking.

  140. 140
    zman Says:

    re 138 – hear ya, thanks. 

    Beerthirty, back in a bit with deets on anyone who reports tonight from our list. 

  141. 141
    RMD Says:

    139 I'm intrigued that co. was at their conference so I suppose analyst got some quality time with mgt…

  142. 142
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs…just about everyone that bought that breakout today  is under water at the close..H&S pattern under 1846.50 intraday. Magnet lower at the 1836.75 Major CHVN

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/es_intraday_140224131119

  143. 143
    zufall Says:

    Is COG in buying territory yet ???

  144. 144
    zman Says:

    re 143 – watching it, this is the range we have been adding in. 

  145. 145
    Roger Says:

    Jone out with an operations update

  146. 146
    zman Says:

    EOG on the tape

    – In line for volumes and EBITDA, ahead on EPS

    – Most importantly, EFS reserve potential was boosted 45% to 3.2 B BOE vs a prior 2.2 B BOE.  Reserves were boosted a whopping 12.5% per well to We were looking for this as per post today.  Good for other EFS players from PVA in the NE to ROSE in the SW of the play. 

    – Announces 2 for 1 split

    Details in morning post. 

  147. 147
    zman Says:

    re 145 – thanks, will take a look in a bit … 

    ROSE on the tape, reading … 

  148. 148
    zman Says:

    JONE basing it's guidance on the old well profile; says to monitor performance of 20 wells with the new frac design longer. Details in the morning post, that's not what they probably wanted to have to say at this point. 

  149. 149
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas Producer Index  Trading sideways below long term resistance/volume base top. Just add volume..

    Daily  Tested resistance. Demand volume supportive/flat.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/nat_gas_producer_composite_index

    Weekly Demand volume begining to turn up….

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/natural_gas_weekly

  150. 150
    Zorgnak Says:

    Oil Producer Index

    Daily

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/oil_producer_index

    Weekly

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/oil_producer_index_weekly

  151. 151
    Zorgnak Says:

    Bakken Index 

    Daily       Breakout today…on decent volume

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/bakken_index

    Weekly   Still moving up from the bounce off a three year base

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/bakken_index_weekly

  152. 152
    Zorgnak Says:

    Permian Index 

    Daily   2011 highs just above at 110. Demand volume remains strong.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/permian_index

    Weekly Three year highs just above at 110. Demand volume long term trend positive/expanding

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/permian_index_weekly

  153. 153
    zman Says:

    ROSE

    Pre-announced volumes 

    Light on the revenue line, high to EPS at $0.83 vs $0.78 consensus

    Reiterated 2014 guidance as expected

    EFS – No numbers or real color update on stacked lateral tests in the EFS other than to say they are being closely watched and a 3rd pilot was drilled at GR and an upper EFS test was drilled at L&E lease as previously noted. 

    Permian – not much of an update there either, look for more color on the call. 

    Deets in the morning post. 

     

  154. 154
    brodway Says:

    re: 127

    Zorg…..awesome idea…i went in on a safer bet and sold the 32 1/2  puts….a bit of income never hurts.

  155. 155
    RMD Says:

    Z do you still have the link to last week's Enercom presentations?

  156. 156
    Zorgnak Says:

    NG   Excess high above 6.32 rejected and a return to acceptance at 5.50. The quarterly volume profile ssuggests that with a  break much below the 5.34 CLVN I'd be looking for a test of 4.79 CLVN and below. Next major acceptance below is at the 4.30 CHVN. Minor resistance at the 5.71 CLVN

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/25/ng_master_140224163503

  157. 157
    zman Says:

    re 155 :  http://www.enercominc.com/the-oil-and-services-conference/webcast/#

  158. 158
    brodway Says:

    NOG finally broke through the $16 handle on slightly higher than average volume…its been some time since upward pressure has been mentioned in the same sentence as NOG, so there is hope yet.

  159. 159
    Bill Potter Says:

    SDCJF – new filing on the ASX for a "suspension from Official Quotation"

    http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=SEA

  160. 160
    brodway Says:

    re: 156

    Zorg…..interestingly enough, the early rise in NG followed by a sell off didn't quite reflect the same way in the individual equities…my feeling is that the markets are recognizing the more price supportive dynamics in the NG sector and are inclined to accumulate shares now. $4.32 which is probably a worst case scenario in the short run, is still miles from sub $3 NG we saw last year…

    Oil equities came out like a raging bull and continued with the move through about 3pm when the buying pressure seemed to subside. Not sure if there were comments made by a major outfit, but they sure came out Monday morning with an appetite for oil stocks.

  161. 161
    zman Says:

    AREX on the tape with a modest 4Q Beat on the Revenue and EBITDA lines on pre-announced volumes (announced 11 days back) as slightly above what the Street was looking for. 

    Operating cost control was strong

    Pretty light on details in the operating update. 


     

     

     

  162. 162
    brodway Says:

    re: 161 

    bought that one in late December for a January effect play and held on for the Permian value….sorry to say that i chose it over FANG which ran from my $45 mental buy point to $68 today (wow)….hindsight is 20/20

  163. 163
    brodway Says:

    new 52 week high in CLR today…amazing how quickly oil stocks recovered from the December lows…both EOG and PXD had very nice moves too, so the leaders are doing their part. Certainly a positive tone in most of our names.

  164. 164
    tomdavis12 Says:

    EOG split 2/1

  165. 165
    RB Says:

    re:162…I bought and flipped them both.worst sale was PVA last year…got angry they wouldn't own up to being technically inferior to EOG….my temper rarely serves me well 

  166. 166
    zman Says:

    re 164 – yep, good quarter, see 146 above

    We got the long awaited 3rd increase to Eagle Ford average EURs and total play potential.  Downspacing success allowed them to add 1,600 net locations, now at 6,000 net locations which sounds like a lot until you note the 26 rig, 520 net well program for 2014.  

  167. 167
    zman Says:

    re 165 – don't trade angry. 

  168. 168
    RB Says:

    PVA some of your best work…I am loaded now and XOP/exploration/producers very strong…thankful…need to flip the page

  169. 169
    zman Says:

    re 168 – we ease in and out over multi year periods of time. Makes it easy to sleep at night should the opportunity for sleep arise. 

  170. 170
    zman Says:

    EOG continues to just crush it, from Gonzales in the northeast EFS to Atascosa in the southwest,  average IP last year was 2,077 Bopd (that's oil only).  Biggest of the big wells are generally in Gonzales, close proximity to the rising IPs and 30 day rates of PVA, in fact, PVA is basically sandwiched in between EOG and what DVN just bought.  Cat. Bird. Seat. So unloved a year ago it makes one wince. 

  171. 171
    RB Says:

    re: 158…NOG loved that set of weekly divergences on NOG that occurred I believe in Oct.  That is rare and sometimes leads to powerful recovery type moves…I see no reason it won't here…

  172. 172
    zman Says:

    re 171 – quarter pre announced there for volumes so we will be on the NOG replay as SWN should be more interesting from a potential catalyst well type standpoint. But we are doing an update piece on NOG for SA in the next few weeks. Too cheap and going FCF in 2015 and their EBITDA margins match the best names in the play … their barrels are non-operated to be sure but we're starting to see more non-operated acreage get good pricing … if they don't go up as they approach free cash flow land (we'd expect them to start discounting that move over the back half of 2014) then we don't see them sticking around as their own entity. 

  173. 173
    RMD Says:

    thanks 157

  174. 174
    zman Says:

    re 173 – no problem.  Switching back to WFT out of pure fascination with the abomination, did management get swapped out completely there and I missed it and how much of the company has to be sold to get to that net cash build in the next couple of years. 

  175. 175
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